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2021-06-11

666

Scary Shock or September Coming! New Debt King: Tianliang Water Release Seriously Distorts the Economy

2022-01-15

666

28 Billion Rights Issue! The securities "first brother" first collapsed himself

2021-06-27

I waiting for it...

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2021-09-24

$海底捞(06862)$?

2021-06-15

Hi guys, is tome to buy?

2022-06-08

666

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2021-08-16

Up up up

2021-07-07

DIDI up

Will advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?

2021-07-11

???

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2021-07-01

Is it time to buy?

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The securities \"first brother\" first collapsed himself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140376268","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"有些公司你买入持有，每年还有分红送钱，可是有些公司你买入了，不但没钱送，反而还得向你要钱。昨晚，券商“一哥”中信证券历时11个月的“要钱”计划正式落地，280亿的配股规模，超过招商证券2020年的12","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some companies you buy and hold, and there are dividends and money every year, but some companies you buy, not only have no money to give, but have to ask you for money.</p><p>Last night, the brokerage \"first brother\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The 11-month \"asking for money\" plan officially landed, and the scale of 28 billion rights issue exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>The rights issue of 12.7 billion yuan in 2020 became the largest rights issue financing in the brokerage industry.</p><p><b>Rights allotment has always had a short-term negative impact on the stock price. For holders, \"beating\" is definitely indispensable, and they have to consider whether to participate in rights allotment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d857b3724e40eef11047ff3e34d8434\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>time-sharing trend)</p><p>In early trading today, CITIC Securities jumped 3% from open low as expected, and went all the way to the black, dragging a group of \"younger brothers\" in the whole securities sector into the water. If the Shanghai Composite Index underperformed the GEM index today, there must be CITIC Securities'\"credit\". By the close, CITIC Securities fell 5% to close almost at its lowest level, and the securities sector fell 2.38%.</p><p>In the memory of most old investors, CITIC Securities is the big brother in the industry. Thinking back to 2015, CITIC Securities was arrogant, once becoming the largest brokerage giant in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. However, six years later, it was pulled down by Dongcai in China.</p><p>The market value of CITIC Securities was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Beyond, falling to the second place. Although Oriental Fortune has fallen somewhat these days, its market value still exceeds that of CITIC Securities by a lot.</p><p>With this huge rights issue of 28 billion yuan, can the first brother save his dignity?</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>Who did the rights issue benefit?</b></p><p><b>For CITIC Securities itself, rights issue is a more suitable refinancing method at present. On the one hand, it can directly obtain large amount of financing from the market, and on the other hand, it does not dilute the equity of controlling shareholders.</b></p><p>The rights issue is directly faced to all old shareholders, so the financial pressure shared with each investor will be much less. In addition, the equity proportion of major shareholders of CITIC Securities is inherently very low, and direct rights issue will not dilute the equity. From the third quarter, the proportion of equity held by CITIC Co., Ltd., the major shareholder, is not high, accounting for only 15.47%.</p><p>In this capital allocation, CITIC Securities raised about 28 billion yuan in this rights allocation, of which 23 billion yuan in A-share rights allocation and 5 billion yuan in H-share rights allocation.</p><p>If 28 billion yuan is raised, it is equivalent to directly supplying 28 billion yuan of net cash assets. At the end of 2021, the company's net assets were 209.1 billion yuan, which will exceed 237 billion yuan after the completion of the rights issue, and the gap between Haitong, the second place, will exceed 70 billion yuan.</p><p>In the brokerage industry, total assets are undoubtedly the most important way to consider, so this rights issue will greatly increase the asset scale of CITIC Securities, thus further consolidating its leading position in the industry.</p><p><b>However, the rights issue may have short-term negative effects for investors. On the one hand, after the rights issue, the share price is diluted, and the number of stocks in circulation will increase. On the other hand, if you don't participate in the rights issue, the lower the rights issue price, the more you will lose.</b></p><p>According to the announcement, the rights issue will be placed to all holders of A shares at the ratio of 1.5 shares for every 10 shares. The allotment price is 14.43 yuan/share, which is lower than the closing price of 26.36 yuan the previous day, which is equivalent to a 55% discount.</p><p>If you have 100 shares of CITIC Securities in your hand, then you have the first subscription right of 15 shares in this rights issue. Of course, you can also give up the subscription right of these 15 shares, that is, give up the rights.</p><p>For investors who have not sold their holdings, if they don't participate in the rights issue, they will have to bear a loss of 6%. The question is, now that there has been a certain decline, is CITIC Securities still worth matching?</p><p>In the short term, today's stock price plummeted by 5%. When the stock price opened on Monday, it fell directly to around 24.8 yuan, the price after ex-rights of the rights issue. According to the closing price of 25.03, it was less than 1%. That is to say, if you have not sold off after being \"beaten\" today, and you don't want to pay for rights issue, you will lose another 1% at most.</p><p>As for whether it is optimistic later, it has to test investors' beliefs.</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>Challenged</b></p><p><b>The worst thing about CITIC Securities being \"hacked\" is its reverse indicator.</b></p><p>Last year's vigorous big white horse market, CITIC Securities on February 10th will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The target price was set at 3,000 yuan, and the share price of Kweichow Moutai rose by 5.9% on that day, which was also the last positive line before the share price of Kweichow Moutai peaked.</p><p>Everyone knows the story since then. Maotai fell by 35% in just half a year, with the latest share price of 1,662 yuan and the market value evaporating by 11,000 yuan.</p><p>Last July,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>Driving wildly and rising all the way, CITIC Securities released a research report on July 30th, saying that it maintained the buy rating of CATL, with a target price of 754 yuan/share in 2023. Compared with the closing price of 556.8 yuan on the 29th, it is 35% higher. Unfortunately, however, Ningwang hit a record high on the 30th, but closed down 1.15% in a single day, and opened the road to pullback/retracement, during which it once fell below 470 yuan.</p><p><b>Bullish targets can't work, but bearish targets seem to have influence.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600927\">Yongan Futures</a>It was listed at the issue price of 17.97 yuan on December 23, 2021. After listing, it reached the daily limit for 6 consecutive days, and reached the highest price of 41.69 yuan on December 30, with a market value once exceeding 60 billion yuan. Then on December 31st, Yong 'an Futures showed a limit adjustment, while CITIC Securities released a research report on January 3rd, 2022, and stepped on Yong' an Futures again, saying that the stock price had 35% downside. As a result, the opening of \"Qimao\" in the New Year crashed again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fccb088cf8458fdf5b2f6011ef62c62\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice, time-sharing trend of Yongan Futures)</p><p>Unfortunately, today, Yongan Futures had a daily limit, closing at 34.41, an increase of 8.27%. It seems that it is far from the bearish target price of 22 yuan of CITIC Securities.</p><p>Ningde, Maotai, etc. are undoubtedly very good companies in various tracks, and the valuation of Yongan Futures is also not a cheap target. However, when CITIC Securities gives the target price, sometimes luck is a little back, resulting in the short-term loss of some accuracy.</p><p><b>The deviation from the target price is not limited to the tickets widely talked about by these investors. Of course, there are also drastic changes in factors such as the macro environment and the deviation of the main line of market speculation. It is just a coincidence that the \"first brother\" met.</b></p><p>In addition to the direction indicator being hacked, the company's market value has been lagging behind Oriental Fortune recently. 50 brokers with a total market value of 4 trillion yuan. Oriental Fortune, the brother of the brokerage, is 334 billion yuan, which is 10.4 billion yuan higher than CITIC Securities. You know, in the 2015 bull market, when CITIC's historical stock price was the highest, its market value approached 400 billion yuan. At that time, Dongcai was less than 50 billion yuan, and its market value ranked outside the 20th place. The former was eight times that of the latter.</p><p><b>Of course, in the same industry, the mentality of holding Dongcai and CITIC is very different.</b>Since its listing in 2010, Dongcai has increased by 32 times, while CITIC has increased by less than double in the same period. In 2021, Dongcai rose 44%, while CITIC Securities fell 9% instead.</p><p>There is no harm without comparison. It can be seen that investors who hold CITIC Securities are puzzled.</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>A skinny camel is bigger than a horse</b></p><p>While market capitalization is temporarily lagging behind, Big Brother<b>CITIC's fundamentals are relatively solid.</b></p><p>Just the day before the rights issue announcement was issued yesterday, CITIC Securities also showed its \"muscles\" to investors. The company released its 2021 annual performance report, of which the revenue was 76.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, and the ROE, which value investors pay more attention to, was 12.01%, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2780f5270ca95f901cd5683b4cb812fe\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Flush</a>CITIC Securities Performance Express)</p><p>In the fourth quarter alone, the company's revenue was about 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than double. In this way, the company's fourth-quarter performance greatly exceeded expectations.</p><p><b>Exceeding expectations was mainly due to the upward market sentiment in the fourth quarter, the rapid development of derivatives business, and the year-on-year increase of investment banking business and other business income.</b></p><p>In addition, many indicators of CITIC Securities are still in the forefront, and the position of Big Brother is not easy to shake.</p><p>In 2021, the IPO scale of CITIC Securities was 85 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 88%, ranking first in the industry; The number of IPOs was 68, an increase of 27 over last year, ranking first in the industry. The refinancing scale was 253.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, ranking first in the industry. Bond underwriting was 1,563.4 billion yuan, +20% year-on-year, ranking first in the industry. Net income of asset management business in the third quarter remained first, with an increase of more than 64%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4069729236c1f8455fca314d212fcb6\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: AVIC Securities, growth rate of asset management business of listed securities firms)</p><p>For this large financing purpose, capital intermediary business accounts for the vast majority. Of the 28 billion yuan funds, the company will use no more than 19 billion yuan for capital intermediary business.</p><p>Intermediary businesses generally include margin financing and securities lending, stock pledge, income swap, equity derivatives, commodity derivatives, market-making transactions, cross-border transactions, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35cd2dac3004171044926b7426dc8e6\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>Revenue structure of each business of CITIC Securities)</p><p>Judging from the company's past business income structure, the company's business is becoming more and more balanced. The proportion of the company's traditional brokerage business is decreasing year by year, while the proportion of intermediary business has become an important business growth point of the company.</p><p>Generally speaking, capital intermediary business is characterized by a wide range of customers, rich products, stable interest spreads and controllable risks, which is the business direction that the company has focused on in recent years. The pilot of market-making trading in science and technology innovation board is imminent, and the company's growth is guaranteed by funds.</p><p><b>Some institutions predict that the company's rights issue will be mainly used to develop capital intermediary business. The intermediary business is mainly over-the-counter derivatives business and financing business, all of which are high-quality businesses with relatively neutral risks and high ROA. The rights issue will have a short-term direct impact of about 0.8% on the company's ROE, but it is expected that the company's ROE will rise to 12% in 2023 after the rights issue fundraising is put into operation.</b></p><p>In this way, the status of the company's \"first brother\" can still be preserved.</p><p><i><b>04、</b></i><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The biggest hurt to fund-raising is the shareholders. Although it has plummeted today and almost erased the gap, the final ex-right price is still higher than the closing price.<b>There is still some room for adjustment in a short time.</b></p><p><b>However, in the long run, the fundamentals of \"First Brother\" are still relatively solid. The large amount of money raised by the rights issue will undoubtedly improve the company's asset quality and asset scale, and then build an aircraft carrier-level brokerage.</b></p><p>As for whether or not, the company's management has the foresight to make some judgments on the securities market. While it can still make money at this time, it is unknown to do more.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>28 Billion Rights Issue! The securities \"first brother\" first collapsed himself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n28 Billion Rights Issue! The securities \"first brother\" first collapsed himself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-15 08:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some companies you buy and hold, and there are dividends and money every year, but some companies you buy, not only have no money to give, but have to ask you for money.</p><p>Last night, the brokerage \"first brother\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The 11-month \"asking for money\" plan officially landed, and the scale of 28 billion rights issue exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>The rights issue of 12.7 billion yuan in 2020 became the largest rights issue financing in the brokerage industry.</p><p><b>Rights allotment has always had a short-term negative impact on the stock price. For holders, \"beating\" is definitely indispensable, and they have to consider whether to participate in rights allotment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d857b3724e40eef11047ff3e34d8434\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>time-sharing trend)</p><p>In early trading today, CITIC Securities jumped 3% from open low as expected, and went all the way to the black, dragging a group of \"younger brothers\" in the whole securities sector into the water. If the Shanghai Composite Index underperformed the GEM index today, there must be CITIC Securities'\"credit\". By the close, CITIC Securities fell 5% to close almost at its lowest level, and the securities sector fell 2.38%.</p><p>In the memory of most old investors, CITIC Securities is the big brother in the industry. Thinking back to 2015, CITIC Securities was arrogant, once becoming the largest brokerage giant in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. However, six years later, it was pulled down by Dongcai in China.</p><p>The market value of CITIC Securities was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Beyond, falling to the second place. Although Oriental Fortune has fallen somewhat these days, its market value still exceeds that of CITIC Securities by a lot.</p><p>With this huge rights issue of 28 billion yuan, can the first brother save his dignity?</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>Who did the rights issue benefit?</b></p><p><b>For CITIC Securities itself, rights issue is a more suitable refinancing method at present. On the one hand, it can directly obtain large amount of financing from the market, and on the other hand, it does not dilute the equity of controlling shareholders.</b></p><p>The rights issue is directly faced to all old shareholders, so the financial pressure shared with each investor will be much less. In addition, the equity proportion of major shareholders of CITIC Securities is inherently very low, and direct rights issue will not dilute the equity. From the third quarter, the proportion of equity held by CITIC Co., Ltd., the major shareholder, is not high, accounting for only 15.47%.</p><p>In this capital allocation, CITIC Securities raised about 28 billion yuan in this rights allocation, of which 23 billion yuan in A-share rights allocation and 5 billion yuan in H-share rights allocation.</p><p>If 28 billion yuan is raised, it is equivalent to directly supplying 28 billion yuan of net cash assets. At the end of 2021, the company's net assets were 209.1 billion yuan, which will exceed 237 billion yuan after the completion of the rights issue, and the gap between Haitong, the second place, will exceed 70 billion yuan.</p><p>In the brokerage industry, total assets are undoubtedly the most important way to consider, so this rights issue will greatly increase the asset scale of CITIC Securities, thus further consolidating its leading position in the industry.</p><p><b>However, the rights issue may have short-term negative effects for investors. On the one hand, after the rights issue, the share price is diluted, and the number of stocks in circulation will increase. On the other hand, if you don't participate in the rights issue, the lower the rights issue price, the more you will lose.</b></p><p>According to the announcement, the rights issue will be placed to all holders of A shares at the ratio of 1.5 shares for every 10 shares. The allotment price is 14.43 yuan/share, which is lower than the closing price of 26.36 yuan the previous day, which is equivalent to a 55% discount.</p><p>If you have 100 shares of CITIC Securities in your hand, then you have the first subscription right of 15 shares in this rights issue. Of course, you can also give up the subscription right of these 15 shares, that is, give up the rights.</p><p>For investors who have not sold their holdings, if they don't participate in the rights issue, they will have to bear a loss of 6%. The question is, now that there has been a certain decline, is CITIC Securities still worth matching?</p><p>In the short term, today's stock price plummeted by 5%. When the stock price opened on Monday, it fell directly to around 24.8 yuan, the price after ex-rights of the rights issue. According to the closing price of 25.03, it was less than 1%. That is to say, if you have not sold off after being \"beaten\" today, and you don't want to pay for rights issue, you will lose another 1% at most.</p><p>As for whether it is optimistic later, it has to test investors' beliefs.</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>Challenged</b></p><p><b>The worst thing about CITIC Securities being \"hacked\" is its reverse indicator.</b></p><p>Last year's vigorous big white horse market, CITIC Securities on February 10th will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The target price was set at 3,000 yuan, and the share price of Kweichow Moutai rose by 5.9% on that day, which was also the last positive line before the share price of Kweichow Moutai peaked.</p><p>Everyone knows the story since then. Maotai fell by 35% in just half a year, with the latest share price of 1,662 yuan and the market value evaporating by 11,000 yuan.</p><p>Last July,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>Driving wildly and rising all the way, CITIC Securities released a research report on July 30th, saying that it maintained the buy rating of CATL, with a target price of 754 yuan/share in 2023. Compared with the closing price of 556.8 yuan on the 29th, it is 35% higher. Unfortunately, however, Ningwang hit a record high on the 30th, but closed down 1.15% in a single day, and opened the road to pullback/retracement, during which it once fell below 470 yuan.</p><p><b>Bullish targets can't work, but bearish targets seem to have influence.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600927\">Yongan Futures</a>It was listed at the issue price of 17.97 yuan on December 23, 2021. After listing, it reached the daily limit for 6 consecutive days, and reached the highest price of 41.69 yuan on December 30, with a market value once exceeding 60 billion yuan. Then on December 31st, Yong 'an Futures showed a limit adjustment, while CITIC Securities released a research report on January 3rd, 2022, and stepped on Yong' an Futures again, saying that the stock price had 35% downside. As a result, the opening of \"Qimao\" in the New Year crashed again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fccb088cf8458fdf5b2f6011ef62c62\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice, time-sharing trend of Yongan Futures)</p><p>Unfortunately, today, Yongan Futures had a daily limit, closing at 34.41, an increase of 8.27%. It seems that it is far from the bearish target price of 22 yuan of CITIC Securities.</p><p>Ningde, Maotai, etc. are undoubtedly very good companies in various tracks, and the valuation of Yongan Futures is also not a cheap target. However, when CITIC Securities gives the target price, sometimes luck is a little back, resulting in the short-term loss of some accuracy.</p><p><b>The deviation from the target price is not limited to the tickets widely talked about by these investors. Of course, there are also drastic changes in factors such as the macro environment and the deviation of the main line of market speculation. It is just a coincidence that the \"first brother\" met.</b></p><p>In addition to the direction indicator being hacked, the company's market value has been lagging behind Oriental Fortune recently. 50 brokers with a total market value of 4 trillion yuan. Oriental Fortune, the brother of the brokerage, is 334 billion yuan, which is 10.4 billion yuan higher than CITIC Securities. You know, in the 2015 bull market, when CITIC's historical stock price was the highest, its market value approached 400 billion yuan. At that time, Dongcai was less than 50 billion yuan, and its market value ranked outside the 20th place. The former was eight times that of the latter.</p><p><b>Of course, in the same industry, the mentality of holding Dongcai and CITIC is very different.</b>Since its listing in 2010, Dongcai has increased by 32 times, while CITIC has increased by less than double in the same period. In 2021, Dongcai rose 44%, while CITIC Securities fell 9% instead.</p><p>There is no harm without comparison. It can be seen that investors who hold CITIC Securities are puzzled.</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>A skinny camel is bigger than a horse</b></p><p>While market capitalization is temporarily lagging behind, Big Brother<b>CITIC's fundamentals are relatively solid.</b></p><p>Just the day before the rights issue announcement was issued yesterday, CITIC Securities also showed its \"muscles\" to investors. The company released its 2021 annual performance report, of which the revenue was 76.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, and the ROE, which value investors pay more attention to, was 12.01%, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2780f5270ca95f901cd5683b4cb812fe\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Flush</a>CITIC Securities Performance Express)</p><p>In the fourth quarter alone, the company's revenue was about 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than double. In this way, the company's fourth-quarter performance greatly exceeded expectations.</p><p><b>Exceeding expectations was mainly due to the upward market sentiment in the fourth quarter, the rapid development of derivatives business, and the year-on-year increase of investment banking business and other business income.</b></p><p>In addition, many indicators of CITIC Securities are still in the forefront, and the position of Big Brother is not easy to shake.</p><p>In 2021, the IPO scale of CITIC Securities was 85 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 88%, ranking first in the industry; The number of IPOs was 68, an increase of 27 over last year, ranking first in the industry. The refinancing scale was 253.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, ranking first in the industry. Bond underwriting was 1,563.4 billion yuan, +20% year-on-year, ranking first in the industry. Net income of asset management business in the third quarter remained first, with an increase of more than 64%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4069729236c1f8455fca314d212fcb6\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: AVIC Securities, growth rate of asset management business of listed securities firms)</p><p>For this large financing purpose, capital intermediary business accounts for the vast majority. Of the 28 billion yuan funds, the company will use no more than 19 billion yuan for capital intermediary business.</p><p>Intermediary businesses generally include margin financing and securities lending, stock pledge, income swap, equity derivatives, commodity derivatives, market-making transactions, cross-border transactions, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35cd2dac3004171044926b7426dc8e6\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>Revenue structure of each business of CITIC Securities)</p><p>Judging from the company's past business income structure, the company's business is becoming more and more balanced. The proportion of the company's traditional brokerage business is decreasing year by year, while the proportion of intermediary business has become an important business growth point of the company.</p><p>Generally speaking, capital intermediary business is characterized by a wide range of customers, rich products, stable interest spreads and controllable risks, which is the business direction that the company has focused on in recent years. The pilot of market-making trading in science and technology innovation board is imminent, and the company's growth is guaranteed by funds.</p><p><b>Some institutions predict that the company's rights issue will be mainly used to develop capital intermediary business. The intermediary business is mainly over-the-counter derivatives business and financing business, all of which are high-quality businesses with relatively neutral risks and high ROA. The rights issue will have a short-term direct impact of about 0.8% on the company's ROE, but it is expected that the company's ROE will rise to 12% in 2023 after the rights issue fundraising is put into operation.</b></p><p>In this way, the status of the company's \"first brother\" can still be preserved.</p><p><i><b>04、</b></i><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The biggest hurt to fund-raising is the shareholders. Although it has plummeted today and almost erased the gap, the final ex-right price is still higher than the closing price.<b>There is still some room for adjustment in a short time.</b></p><p><b>However, in the long run, the fundamentals of \"First Brother\" are still relatively solid. The large amount of money raised by the rights issue will undoubtedly improve the company's asset quality and asset scale, and then build an aircraft carrier-level brokerage.</b></p><p>As for whether or not, the company's management has the foresight to make some judgments on the securities market. While it can still make money at this time, it is unknown to do more.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ca889a3e1a80f90c55621f8f5d7c3a","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140376268","content_text":"有些公司你买入持有，每年还有分红送钱，可是有些公司你买入了，不但没钱送，反而还得向你要钱。昨晚，券商“一哥”中信证券历时11个月的“要钱”计划正式落地，280亿的配股规模，超过招商证券2020年的127亿元配股，成为券商行业最大的一次配股融资。配股向来都会对股价带来短期负面影响，对于持有的股民来说，“挨打”肯定是少不了，还得考虑是否参与配股。（数据来源：Choice，中信证券分时走势）今日早盘，中信证券不出意外的跳空低开3%，而且一路走到黑，把整个证券板块一众“小弟”拖下水，要是说上证指数今日跑输创业板指数，肯定有中信证券的“功劳”。截至收盘，中信证券下跌5%，几乎收在最低位，证券板块下跌2.38%。在多数老股民记忆里，中信证券都是行业内的老大哥，遥想2015年，中信证券不可一世，一度成为亚洲第一大，全球第四大券商巨头，而6年过去了，在国内竟被东财拉下马来。中信证券市值在今年6月被东方财富超越，落到第二，尽管东方财富这些天有些回落，但市值依然超中信证券不少。这次280亿的巨额配股，一哥能挽回自己的尊严吗？01、配股利好了谁？对于中信证券自身来说，配股是当前比较合适的再融资方式。一方面可以直接从市场上获取大额融资，另一方面又不稀释控股股东的股权。配股直接面向全体老股东，那么分担到每个投资者的资金压力就会小很多。另外，中信证券大股东股权占比本来就很低，直接配股不会稀释股权。从三季度看，大股东中信有限公司持有股权比例并不高，只占15.47%。这次配资，中信证券本次配股募集大概280亿，其中，A股配股募230亿，H股配股募集50亿。如果募集资金280亿元，那么相当于直接补充了280亿元现金净资产。公司2021年底净资产2091亿，配股完成后将超2370亿，较第二名海通差距将超700亿。在券商行业，总资产无疑是最重要的考量方式，所以这次配股募资，将大幅提升中信证券的资产规模，从而进一步巩固在行业内的龙头地位。不过，配股对于投资者来说，可能会带来短期负面影响。一方面，配股之后，股价被稀释，流通中股票就会增多。另一方面，如果不参与配股的话，配股价越低，那就等于要亏越多。根据公告，配股按照每10股配售1.5股的比例向全体A股股东配售。配股价格为14.43元/股，比前一日收盘价26.36元低，相当打了55折发行。如果你手里有100股中信证券，那么这次配股你有15股的优先认购权，当然，你也可以放弃这15股的认购权，也就是弃配。对于还没有抛售持有的股民来说，如果不参与配股的话，就得承受6%的亏损，那问题来了，现在已经有一定跌幅了，中信证券还值得配吗？短期来看，今日股价大跌5%，股价周一开盘再来个情绪啥，直接就跌到配股除权后的价格24.8元附近，按照收盘价25.03计算，也就不到1%的跌幅。也就是说，今天“挨打”了还没抛售，又不想交钱配股，最多也就是再损失1%。至于后面是否看好，就得考验投资者信仰了。02、备受挑战中信证券被“黑”的最惨的莫过于它的反向指标。去年轰轰烈烈的大白马行情，中信证券在2月10日将贵州茅台目标价定为3000元，而当天贵州茅台股价大涨5.9%，这也是贵州茅台股价见顶之前的最后一根阳线。此后的故事大家也都知道了，茅台短短半年多大跌35%，股价最新1662元，市值蒸发1.1万。去年7月，宁德时代开车狂飙，一路涨不停，中信证券7月30日发布研报称，维持宁德时代买入评级，2023年目标价为754元/股。相较于29日收盘价的556.8元相比，还要高出35%。不过，很不凑巧，宁王30日盘中创下历史新高，但单日收跌1.15%，并开启了回撤之路，且期间一度跌破470元。看多目标不行，而看空目标好像又有影响力。永安期货2021年12月23日以17.97元的发行价上市，上市后连续6日涨停，至12月30日触及最高价41.69元，市值一度超600亿元。随后12月31日永安期货出现跌停调整，而中信证券2022年1月3日发布研报再踩永安期货一脚，称股价有35%下行空间。结果，“期茅”新年开盘再次闪崩。（数据来源：Choice，永安期货分时走势）不巧的是，今日永安期货盘中一度涨停，报收34.41，涨幅8.27%，看来距离中信证券的看空目标价22元，好像又远了不少。宁德、茅台等无疑都是各赛道的非常优秀的公司，而永安期货估值也是不便宜的标的，只是中信证券给出的目标价的时候，有时运气就是有点背，导致短期失去了一些准头。方向偏离目标价还不仅限于这些股民广为津津乐道的票，当然这背后固然也有宏观环境和市场炒作主线偏离等因素的剧烈变化有关，只是好巧不巧，偏偏“一哥”就遇上了。除了方向指标被黑，公司市值近来一直落后于东方财富。50家券商，总市值4万亿。券商一哥东方财富3340亿，高出中信证券104亿。要知道的是，2015大牛市时，中信历史股价最高时，市值逼近4000亿，那时东财不足500亿，市值排名20名开外，前者是后者的8倍。当然，同样的行业，持有东财和中信的心态却大相径庭。东财2010年上市至今，累计涨幅32倍，同期中信上涨不到1倍。2021年东财上涨44%，中信证券还反而下跌9%。没有对比就没有伤害，可以看出，持有中信证券的投资者表示很纳闷。03、瘦死骆驼比马大虽然市值暂时落后，但老大哥中信的基本面还是比较扎实的。就在昨天发布配股公告的前一天，中信证券还向投资者秀了一下“肌肉”。公司发布2021年度业绩快报，其中营收765亿元，同比增长40.8%，归母净利润230亿元，同比增长54.2%，而价值投资者比较关注的ROE12.01%，同比提升3.58个百分点。（数据来源：同花顺，中信证券业绩快报）公司单单四季度收入大约有188亿元，同比增长超50%，归母净利润53亿，同比增长超1倍。这么一算，公司第四季度业绩大超预期。超预期主要来自第四季度市场景气度上行、衍生品业务快速发展、投行业务、其他业务收入同比高增。此外，中信证券多项指标还是位居前列，老大哥的位置不容易撼动。2021年，中信证券IPO规模850亿，同比增长88%，位居行业第一；IPO家数68家，较去年增加27家，位居行业第一。再融资规模2539亿，同比增长40%，位居行业第一。债券承销15634亿，同比+20%，位居行业第一。资管业务三季度净收入依旧第一，增幅超过64%（数据来源：中航证券，上市券商资管业务增速）对于此次的大笔融资用途中，资本中介业务占据了绝大部分。在280亿元资金中，公司将使用不超190亿元用于资本中介业务。中介业务一般有就是融资融券、股票质押、收益互换、股权衍生品、大宗商品衍生品、做市交易、跨境交易等。（数据来源：国信证券，中信证券各业务收入结构）从公司过往的业务收入结构来看，公司业务越来越均衡。公司传统经纪业务占比逐年降低，而中介业务比列成为公司重要的业务增长点。一般来说，资本中介业务具有客户广泛、产品丰富、利差稳定、风险可控的特征，是公司近年来重点培育的业务方向。科创板做市交易试点在即，公司增长获得资金保障。有机构预测，公司配股主要用于发展资本中介业务，中介业务主要为场外衍生品业务及两融业务，均为风险相对中性且ROA较高的优质业务，配股对公司ROE将带来约0.8%的短期直接影响，但伴随配股募资投入经营后预计2023年公司ROE将升至12%。这么一看，公司“一哥”的地位还是能保住。04、结语大笔配股募资，最伤的还是股民，尽管今天已经大跌，也差不多抹掉差距，但最终除权价依旧高于收盘价，短时间还有一定调整的空间。但长远出发，“一哥”的基本面还是比较扎实，配股募来的大笔钱，毫无疑问将提升公司的资产质量与资产规模，进而打造航母级券商。至于是不是，公司管理层有先见之明，对证券市场的某些判断，趁着这个时候还能搞钱的时候，多搞一点，就不得而知了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863774079,"gmtCreate":1632440135591,"gmtModify":1676530781851,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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up","listText":"DIDI up","text":"DIDI up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140365403","repostId":"1130494473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130494473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625630000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130494473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 11:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130494473","media":"长庚科技","summary":"种种迹象显示，滴滴正在加快户外广告业务的布局。\n长庚君了解到，滴滴已在部分礼橙专车上投放了车载广告屏，这是继一个月前滴滴在快车上投放车载广告屏后，再度加快该项业务的布局。(之前的报道在这里）\n6月初，","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b11f89302957ecc6711f825cf96303\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>There are signs that Didi is accelerating the layout of outdoor advertising business.</p><p>Chang Gengjun learned that Didi has put on-board advertising screens on some Licheng special cars, which is another acceleration of the layout of this business after Didi put on-board advertising screens on express trains a month ago. (Previous report here)</p><p>In early June, Chang Gengjun revealed that on some Didi Express trains operating in Beijing, drivers had received notices requesting the installation of on-board advertising screens. At that time, some drivers revealed that Didi only installed on-board advertising screens on lower-priced express trains, and Youxiang and special cars would not install large screens. Different from drivers' predictions, in fact, since mid-to-late June, Didi has asked some private car drivers to install on-board advertising screens.</p><p>A special car driver revealed that his vehicle was notified to install on-board advertising screens at the end of June. According to his understanding, 15% of Licheng special cars in Beijing market have been installed.</p><p>In the same way as the Express, drivers who are notified are not charged for installation and screens, and there is no compensation for screen damage. The difference is that if the screen is lost, the driver needs to compensate 2,500 yuan, while the express driver will compensate 1,800 yuan if the screen is lost.</p><p>Chang Gengjun found that the on-board screen installed on Licheng special car was much larger than that of the express train, and the screen had no obvious reflection phenomenon, which inferred that the cost of the on-board screen of the special car was higher. In addition, Didi's content on the car screen has been refined to a considerable degree compared to a month ago. There are not only children's songs, movies, variety shows and other programs, but also embedded LBS services such as food recommendations.</p><p>In terms of advertising, there are still only Bilibili, Youku, Sina and Didi's own promotional videos. At present, it is unclear whether these advertising contents are content replacement or direct delivery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1728a2f74e6233348dbd4e0d0e0fa9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike pure advertising broadcast platform platforms like Focus, Didi may want to improve users' acceptance of outdoor advertising in the form of content + LBS service + advertising.</p><p>In November 2019, Didi spent RMB 10 million to establish Beijing LiliOrange Media Co., Ltd. The company's main task is to produce suitable in-car content for Didi. According to public information, the production team of Grain Orange has jointly produced a variety short drama \"Dream! Jingjing\" with Tik Tok and Zhenledao Culture, which will be broadcast jointly on Didi's car platform and Tik Tok platform.</p><p>It is understood that, unlike express drivers, Didi does not force special car drivers to install on-board advertising screens, but only promotes them to drivers by suggesting installation.</p>","source":"lsy1575616094547","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">长庚科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 11:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b11f89302957ecc6711f825cf96303\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>There are signs that Didi is accelerating the layout of outdoor advertising business.</p><p>Chang Gengjun learned that Didi has put on-board advertising screens on some Licheng special cars, which is another acceleration of the layout of this business after Didi put on-board advertising screens on express trains a month ago. (Previous report here)</p><p>In early June, Chang Gengjun revealed that on some Didi Express trains operating in Beijing, drivers had received notices requesting the installation of on-board advertising screens. At that time, some drivers revealed that Didi only installed on-board advertising screens on lower-priced express trains, and Youxiang and special cars would not install large screens. Different from drivers' predictions, in fact, since mid-to-late June, Didi has asked some private car drivers to install on-board advertising screens.</p><p>A special car driver revealed that his vehicle was notified to install on-board advertising screens at the end of June. According to his understanding, 15% of Licheng special cars in Beijing market have been installed.</p><p>In the same way as the Express, drivers who are notified are not charged for installation and screens, and there is no compensation for screen damage. The difference is that if the screen is lost, the driver needs to compensate 2,500 yuan, while the express driver will compensate 1,800 yuan if the screen is lost.</p><p>Chang Gengjun found that the on-board screen installed on Licheng special car was much larger than that of the express train, and the screen had no obvious reflection phenomenon, which inferred that the cost of the on-board screen of the special car was higher. In addition, Didi's content on the car screen has been refined to a considerable degree compared to a month ago. There are not only children's songs, movies, variety shows and other programs, but also embedded LBS services such as food recommendations.</p><p>In terms of advertising, there are still only Bilibili, Youku, Sina and Didi's own promotional videos. At present, it is unclear whether these advertising contents are content replacement or direct delivery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1728a2f74e6233348dbd4e0d0e0fa9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike pure advertising broadcast platform platforms like Focus, Didi may want to improve users' acceptance of outdoor advertising in the form of content + LBS service + advertising.</p><p>In November 2019, Didi spent RMB 10 million to establish Beijing LiliOrange Media Co., Ltd. The company's main task is to produce suitable in-car content for Didi. According to public information, the production team of Grain Orange has jointly produced a variety short drama \"Dream! Jingjing\" with Tik Tok and Zhenledao Culture, which will be broadcast jointly on Didi's car platform and Tik Tok platform.</p><p>It is understood that, unlike express drivers, Didi does not force special car drivers to install on-board advertising screens, but only promotes them to drivers by suggesting installation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/By1Icoz6Fhvf4ok-fxNpDw\">长庚科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65bfcb358a6800fc2fe39bc0b3af8fc","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/By1Icoz6Fhvf4ok-fxNpDw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130494473","content_text":"种种迹象显示，滴滴正在加快户外广告业务的布局。\n长庚君了解到，滴滴已在部分礼橙专车上投放了车载广告屏，这是继一个月前滴滴在快车上投放车载广告屏后，再度加快该项业务的布局。(之前的报道在这里）\n6月初，长庚君披露了在北京运营的部分滴滴快车上，司机收到过要求安装车载广告屏的通知。当时曾有司机透露，滴滴仅在价格较低的快车上安装车载广告屏，优享和专车将不会安装大屏。与司机们预测不同的是，事实上从6月中下旬开始，滴滴就已经要求部分专车司机安装车载广告屏。\n一位专车司机透露，他的车辆是在6月底收到通知安装车载广告屏，据他了解目前北京市场已有15%的礼橙专车完成了安装。\n与快车相同的是，收到通知的司机无需缴纳安装和屏幕费用，屏幕损坏也无需赔偿。不同的是屏幕如果丢失，司机需要赔偿2500元，而快车司机如果屏幕发生丢失，赔偿金额为1800元。\n长庚君发现，礼橙专车上安装的车载屏比快车的屏幕大很多，且屏幕没有明显反光现象，由此推断专车的车载屏成本更高。此外，与一个月前相比，滴滴在车载屏上的内容已经得到相当程度的完善。不仅有儿歌、影视、综艺等节目，还内嵌了如美食推荐等LBS服务。\n在广告方面、依然只有B站、优酷、新浪和滴滴自己的宣传片，目前尚不清楚是这些广告内容是内容置换还是直接投放。\n\n与分众这样的纯广告播放平台平台不同，滴滴可能希望以内容+LBS服务+广告的形式来提高用户对户外广告的接受程度。\n滴滴在2019年11月斥资1000万元人民币成立北京粒粒橙传媒有限公司。该公司主要任务就是为滴滴制作适合的车载内容。公开信息显示，粒粒橙的制作团队已经与抖音、真乐道文化联合制作综艺短剧《做梦吧!晶晶》，该剧会在滴滴的车载平台与抖音平台共同播出。\n据了解，与快车司机不同的是，滴滴并未强制要求专车司机安装车载广告屏，只是以建议安装的方式向司机推广。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158027417,"gmtCreate":1625115259539,"gmtModify":1703736473260,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is 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up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123238049","repostId":"2145064562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120702283,"gmtCreate":1624335783842,"gmtModify":1703833825553,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up&nbsp;","listText":"Up&nbsp;","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120702283","repostId":"1138162924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138162924","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624335213,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138162924?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 12:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Stop the \"price war\" by supervision. What do you fight for in the second half of community group purchase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138162924","media":"iFeng科技","summary":"对于不缺资金的巨头而言，价格战被叫停后，履约能力成为比拼的重点。\n社区团购再次迎来强力监管。\n近日，有消息称，监管部门对所有社区团购平台发出的统一要求，不得以明显低于成本价倾销商品。而在此之前，国家市","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb15a141f2ea46cd897789402a4609e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war was stopped, the ability to perform contracts became the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>Community group purchase once again ushered in strong supervision.</b></p><p>Recently, it was reported that the regulatory authorities issued a unified requirement for all community group buying platforms that goods should not be dumped at a significantly lower cost price. Prior to this, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed administrative penalties on the unfair pricing behavior of Shihui Group, fined 1.5 million yuan, and ordered its Jiangsu region to rectify for 3 days.</p><p>Last year's hot community group buying entered a stage of barbaric growth after pouring into Internet giants. In order to compete for the market and cultivate user habits, major platforms have started a price war with crazy subsidies, and low-cost subsidies such as \"low-price spike killing\" and \"full reduction of new users\" have been repeatedly banned.</p><p>Nowadays, the supervision has been increased again, and the low-price subsidy of the platform has been stopped, which also makes the market worry about the development trend of community group buying. Is the money-burning expansion strategy OK? Where will the community group buying under strong supervision go?</p><p><b>Low-price dumping triggers strong supervision</b></p><p>In fact, from the end of last year to now, the supervision of community group buying has been constantly strengthened, but some platforms are still taking risks.</p><p>Take the recently fined Shihui Group as an example. The announcement of the State Administration for Market Regulation pointed out that it sold \"500g of Blue Sky Sanjing iodized refined edible salt, with a selling price of 0.1 yuan and an actual purchase cost of 0.57 yuan\" and \"Korla Xiaoxiang Pear, with a purchase cost of 3.89 yuan, with a selling price of 0.99 yuan.\"</p><p>This kind of dumping behavior below the cost price is regarded as unfair price competition that destroys the consumer market. On May 27th, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a fine to Shihui Group, with a total fine of 1.5 million yuan. That night, Shihui Group responded that the platform had removed the goods involved from the shelves at the first time and accelerated business rectification.</p><p>This wasn't the first time the Ten Hui Group had been punished, and it wasn't the only one that had been punished. In March this year, community group buying platforms such as Shihui Group, Duoduo Maicai and Meituan Preferred were fined 1.5 million yuan by the State Administration for Market Regulation for unfair prices. At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation revealed that \"if you find repeated illegal acts, you will be severely punished according to law.\"</p><p>On May 31st, 12 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Construction of a Quarter-Minute Convenient Living Circle in Cities, which once again pointed out the common unfair price competition in community e-commerce and other formats, and proposed to establish and improve market access rules to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital. Recently, it is also reported that the regulatory authorities require all community group buying platforms not to dump goods below the cost price.</p><p><b>According to industry insiders, with the tightening of supervision, community group buying relies on low-price dumping and high-price subsidies, including all promotional activities and disguised new attractions, all of which are not allowed. This also means that the community group buying platform will bid farewell to the price war on the surface.</b></p><p>Phoenix Technology noticed that after several rounds of punishment and rectification, the community group buying platform has converged. On mainstream platforms such as Shihui Group and Orange Heart Optimization, there is no penny spike killing activity at present, but there are also activities such as \"exclusive red envelopes for newcomers\" and \"limited-time rush-up\".</p><p><b>If you don't fight a price war, what do you fight?</b></p><p>Due to the tightening of group purchase subsidies, the order volume of many community group purchase platforms has dropped significantly. \"Orange Heart Selection has been working for more than five months. In the past, there were more than 60 orders every day, but now there are only about ten orders every day. Jingxi Pinpin has only started, and it is difficult to receive a few orders a week.\" A group leader of Beili Community in Zaoying, Beijing told reporters.</p><p>This situation has aroused the attention of the market. If the low-price subsidy can't be sustained, how will major platforms attract and retain users and group leaders? What kind of changes will the community group buying track usher in?</p><p>\"When low-price subsidies are no longer a way to attract customers, commodity quality and user experience have become the keys to all platforms\". Zhuang Shuai, an e-commerce analyst, believes that after the price war is stopped, the community group buying platform will turn to more refined operations, including the training of group leaders, large-scale management and category differentiation.</p><p>Phoenix Science and Technology Survey found that after disorderly expansion and strict supervision, community group buying is gradually returning to rationality.</p><p>The relevant person in charge of Meituan Optimization said that at present, Meituan Optimization has covered more than 2,600 counties and cities, and will continue to explore sinking markets such as villages and towns, and continuously strengthen supply chain construction. In Jiangsu, Meituan has reached a strategic cooperation with Hongze District of Huai'an, where both parties will jointly build an agricultural mining base and launch local specialty products. Ten Group said that the platform has made strategic adjustments, focusing on improving commodity quality and operational efficiency.</p><p>When the community group buying takes off the coat of barbaric growth, the capital also moves closer to the head brand. According to the data, in the first five months of 2021, the community group buying track received 8 rounds of financing, totaling 26.2 billion yuan, and the financing amount reached a record high. Among them, Xingsheng Preferred received two financings during the year, totaling US$3.1 billion; Ten groups received 750 million yuan of financing, and the total financing amount of the two accounted for more than 95% of the track.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c427e8c814f65db207c7399b1e832092\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, the pattern of community group buying industry has also begun to appear. At present, the daily orders of Meituan Preferred and Duoduo grocery shopping platforms have exceeded 25 million, which is in the first echelon; The daily order quantity of Orange Heart, Xingsheng and Ten Huiguan is about 10 million, which belongs to the second echelon; The order quantity of Ali's box horse market is about 3 million, and Jingxi is about 2 million.<b>Giants tug-of-war, fulfillment becomes the focus of wrestling</b></p><p>Some senior investors believe that \"when the first stage of market expansion blitzkrieg ends, community group buying players will enter a tug of war in operation. By then, repurchase rate, group promotion and GMV will become the focus of market wrestling. This is not only a competition of platform management ability, but also a test of financial resources.\"</p><p>It can be seen from the financial report data that giants such as Meituan Preferred and Duoduo Buying Food are still increasing their investment. Meituan's financial report shows that its net profit turned from profit to loss to 1.436 billion yuan in Q4 2020. Meituan said in the announcement that the expansion of losses was mainly due to the large investment in community e-commerce business in the early stage, and it is expected that losses may continue to be recorded in the next few quarters.</p><p>Pinduoduo is no exception. In the first quarter of 2021, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 22.167 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to common shareholders of 2.905.4 billion yuan. And its cost of revenue was 107.461 yuan, up 487% year-on-year. According to Internet analysts, the continuous investment of community group buying business is an important factor in its cost increase.</p><p>According to the above-mentioned people, community group buying is expected to generate huge ecological opportunities based on high-frequency orders and huge sinking traffic, which is also the reason why the giants continue to overweight.</p><p>Bao Yuezhong, a new retail expert, believes that because community group buying involves many links such as source mining, sorting, logistics, warehousing and distribution, the cost investment of each part is large. Considering that some players have no sustainable financial strength and financing ability to bear losses, there may be only a few giants left in the industry. China Merchants Securities Research Report also pointed out that the industry pattern of oligopoly is expected to basically take shape in 1-2 years.</p><p>For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war is stopped, the ability to perform contracts will become the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>The performance of community group purchase is actually from the central warehouse to the grid warehouse and then to the self-pick-up point.</b>The seemingly simple distribution link actually involves warehousing site selection, strict quality control, refined sorting, logistics route planning and other problems. Therefore, performance itself is actually a test of the platform's refined operation ability.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the grid warehouse has been the focus of the layout of Orange Heart Optimization and Duoduo Grocery Purchase. It is understood that since the construction of Orange Heart Preferred Power Grid Warehouse last year, as of March 22nd, the number of its grid warehouses has reached nearly 3,000. At the same time, Duoduo Maicai closed several regional grid warehouses, optimized the warehousing layout, and helped agents stop losses by raising prices. Other players are exploring ways to improve manpower efficiency, such as motivating group leaders to hire people to deliver goods.</p><p>From the influx of giants last year to the stop of the price war by regulation this year, community group buying has now entered the second half of the war. In the track, giants have explored new ways of competition. Whether it is Pinduoduo, Meituan, Ali or JD.COM, whoever can be more efficient in the performance process will go a longer term.</p>","source":"lsy1570585487130","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stop the \"price war\" by supervision. What do you fight for in the second half of community group purchase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStop the \"price war\" by supervision. What do you fight for in the second half of community group purchase?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">iFeng科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 12:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb15a141f2ea46cd897789402a4609e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war was stopped, the ability to perform contracts became the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>Community group purchase once again ushered in strong supervision.</b></p><p>Recently, it was reported that the regulatory authorities issued a unified requirement for all community group buying platforms that goods should not be dumped at a significantly lower cost price. Prior to this, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed administrative penalties on the unfair pricing behavior of Shihui Group, fined 1.5 million yuan, and ordered its Jiangsu region to rectify for 3 days.</p><p>Last year's hot community group buying entered a stage of barbaric growth after pouring into Internet giants. In order to compete for the market and cultivate user habits, major platforms have started a price war with crazy subsidies, and low-cost subsidies such as \"low-price spike killing\" and \"full reduction of new users\" have been repeatedly banned.</p><p>Nowadays, the supervision has been increased again, and the low-price subsidy of the platform has been stopped, which also makes the market worry about the development trend of community group buying. Is the money-burning expansion strategy OK? Where will the community group buying under strong supervision go?</p><p><b>Low-price dumping triggers strong supervision</b></p><p>In fact, from the end of last year to now, the supervision of community group buying has been constantly strengthened, but some platforms are still taking risks.</p><p>Take the recently fined Shihui Group as an example. The announcement of the State Administration for Market Regulation pointed out that it sold \"500g of Blue Sky Sanjing iodized refined edible salt, with a selling price of 0.1 yuan and an actual purchase cost of 0.57 yuan\" and \"Korla Xiaoxiang Pear, with a purchase cost of 3.89 yuan, with a selling price of 0.99 yuan.\"</p><p>This kind of dumping behavior below the cost price is regarded as unfair price competition that destroys the consumer market. On May 27th, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a fine to Shihui Group, with a total fine of 1.5 million yuan. That night, Shihui Group responded that the platform had removed the goods involved from the shelves at the first time and accelerated business rectification.</p><p>This wasn't the first time the Ten Hui Group had been punished, and it wasn't the only one that had been punished. In March this year, community group buying platforms such as Shihui Group, Duoduo Maicai and Meituan Preferred were fined 1.5 million yuan by the State Administration for Market Regulation for unfair prices. At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation revealed that \"if you find repeated illegal acts, you will be severely punished according to law.\"</p><p>On May 31st, 12 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Construction of a Quarter-Minute Convenient Living Circle in Cities, which once again pointed out the common unfair price competition in community e-commerce and other formats, and proposed to establish and improve market access rules to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital. Recently, it is also reported that the regulatory authorities require all community group buying platforms not to dump goods below the cost price.</p><p><b>According to industry insiders, with the tightening of supervision, community group buying relies on low-price dumping and high-price subsidies, including all promotional activities and disguised new attractions, all of which are not allowed. This also means that the community group buying platform will bid farewell to the price war on the surface.</b></p><p>Phoenix Technology noticed that after several rounds of punishment and rectification, the community group buying platform has converged. On mainstream platforms such as Shihui Group and Orange Heart Optimization, there is no penny spike killing activity at present, but there are also activities such as \"exclusive red envelopes for newcomers\" and \"limited-time rush-up\".</p><p><b>If you don't fight a price war, what do you fight?</b></p><p>Due to the tightening of group purchase subsidies, the order volume of many community group purchase platforms has dropped significantly. \"Orange Heart Selection has been working for more than five months. In the past, there were more than 60 orders every day, but now there are only about ten orders every day. Jingxi Pinpin has only started, and it is difficult to receive a few orders a week.\" A group leader of Beili Community in Zaoying, Beijing told reporters.</p><p>This situation has aroused the attention of the market. If the low-price subsidy can't be sustained, how will major platforms attract and retain users and group leaders? What kind of changes will the community group buying track usher in?</p><p>\"When low-price subsidies are no longer a way to attract customers, commodity quality and user experience have become the keys to all platforms\". Zhuang Shuai, an e-commerce analyst, believes that after the price war is stopped, the community group buying platform will turn to more refined operations, including the training of group leaders, large-scale management and category differentiation.</p><p>Phoenix Science and Technology Survey found that after disorderly expansion and strict supervision, community group buying is gradually returning to rationality.</p><p>The relevant person in charge of Meituan Optimization said that at present, Meituan Optimization has covered more than 2,600 counties and cities, and will continue to explore sinking markets such as villages and towns, and continuously strengthen supply chain construction. In Jiangsu, Meituan has reached a strategic cooperation with Hongze District of Huai'an, where both parties will jointly build an agricultural mining base and launch local specialty products. Ten Group said that the platform has made strategic adjustments, focusing on improving commodity quality and operational efficiency.</p><p>When the community group buying takes off the coat of barbaric growth, the capital also moves closer to the head brand. According to the data, in the first five months of 2021, the community group buying track received 8 rounds of financing, totaling 26.2 billion yuan, and the financing amount reached a record high. Among them, Xingsheng Preferred received two financings during the year, totaling US$3.1 billion; Ten groups received 750 million yuan of financing, and the total financing amount of the two accounted for more than 95% of the track.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c427e8c814f65db207c7399b1e832092\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, the pattern of community group buying industry has also begun to appear. At present, the daily orders of Meituan Preferred and Duoduo grocery shopping platforms have exceeded 25 million, which is in the first echelon; The daily order quantity of Orange Heart, Xingsheng and Ten Huiguan is about 10 million, which belongs to the second echelon; The order quantity of Ali's box horse market is about 3 million, and Jingxi is about 2 million.<b>Giants tug-of-war, fulfillment becomes the focus of wrestling</b></p><p>Some senior investors believe that \"when the first stage of market expansion blitzkrieg ends, community group buying players will enter a tug of war in operation. By then, repurchase rate, group promotion and GMV will become the focus of market wrestling. This is not only a competition of platform management ability, but also a test of financial resources.\"</p><p>It can be seen from the financial report data that giants such as Meituan Preferred and Duoduo Buying Food are still increasing their investment. Meituan's financial report shows that its net profit turned from profit to loss to 1.436 billion yuan in Q4 2020. Meituan said in the announcement that the expansion of losses was mainly due to the large investment in community e-commerce business in the early stage, and it is expected that losses may continue to be recorded in the next few quarters.</p><p>Pinduoduo is no exception. In the first quarter of 2021, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 22.167 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to common shareholders of 2.905.4 billion yuan. And its cost of revenue was 107.461 yuan, up 487% year-on-year. According to Internet analysts, the continuous investment of community group buying business is an important factor in its cost increase.</p><p>According to the above-mentioned people, community group buying is expected to generate huge ecological opportunities based on high-frequency orders and huge sinking traffic, which is also the reason why the giants continue to overweight.</p><p>Bao Yuezhong, a new retail expert, believes that because community group buying involves many links such as source mining, sorting, logistics, warehousing and distribution, the cost investment of each part is large. Considering that some players have no sustainable financial strength and financing ability to bear losses, there may be only a few giants left in the industry. China Merchants Securities Research Report also pointed out that the industry pattern of oligopoly is expected to basically take shape in 1-2 years.</p><p>For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war is stopped, the ability to perform contracts will become the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>The performance of community group purchase is actually from the central warehouse to the grid warehouse and then to the self-pick-up point.</b>The seemingly simple distribution link actually involves warehousing site selection, strict quality control, refined sorting, logistics route planning and other problems. Therefore, performance itself is actually a test of the platform's refined operation ability.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the grid warehouse has been the focus of the layout of Orange Heart Optimization and Duoduo Grocery Purchase. It is understood that since the construction of Orange Heart Preferred Power Grid Warehouse last year, as of March 22nd, the number of its grid warehouses has reached nearly 3,000. At the same time, Duoduo Maicai closed several regional grid warehouses, optimized the warehousing layout, and helped agents stop losses by raising prices. Other players are exploring ways to improve manpower efficiency, such as motivating group leaders to hire people to deliver goods.</p><p>From the influx of giants last year to the stop of the price war by regulation this year, community group buying has now entered the second half of the war. In the track, giants have explored new ways of competition. Whether it is Pinduoduo, Meituan, Ali or JD.COM, whoever can be more efficient in the performance process will go a longer term.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LRu3XnLIKoHJxhqgq8zWuA\">iFeng科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb15a141f2ea46cd897789402a4609e0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LRu3XnLIKoHJxhqgq8zWuA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138162924","content_text":"对于不缺资金的巨头而言，价格战被叫停后，履约能力成为比拼的重点。\n社区团购再次迎来强力监管。\n近日，有消息称，监管部门对所有社区团购平台发出的统一要求，不得以明显低于成本价倾销商品。而在此之前，国家市场监管总局对十荟团不正当价格行为作出行政处罚，罚款150万元，并责令其江苏区域整顿3日。\n于去年复热的社区团购，在涌入互联网巨头后，进入了野蛮生长的阶段。为了争夺市场、培养用户习惯，各大平台以疯狂的补贴打起了价格战，“低价秒杀”、“新用户满减”等低价补贴行为屡禁不止。\n如今，监管再度加码，平台低价补贴被叫停，这也让市场担心社区团购的发展态势。烧钱扩张战略还行的通吗？强监管下的社区团购又将何去何从？\n低价倾销引发强监管\n事实上，从去年年底到现在，关于社区团购的监管正不断加强，但仍有部分平台铤而走险。\n以近期被罚的十荟团为例，市场监管总局公告指出，其销售的“蓝天三晶加碘精制食用盐500g，销售价格为0.1元，实际进货成本为0.57元”，“进货成本为3.89元的库尔勒小香梨，销售价为0.99元。”\n这种低于成本价的倾销行为，被视作破坏消费市场行情的不正当价格竞争。5月27日，市场监管总局对十荟团开出罚单，合计罚款150万元。当晚，十荟团回应称，平台已第一时间下架所涉商品，并加速业务整改。\n这不是十荟团第一次受到处罚，被处罚的也不止它一家。今年3月，十荟团、多多买菜、美团优选等社区团购平台就因不正当价格，被市场监管总局分别处以150万元罚款。同时，市场监管总局透露，“再发现屡次犯法行为，将依法从重处罚。”\n5月31日，商务部等12部门联合发布《关于推进城市一刻钟便民生活圈建设的意见》，再次指出社区电商等业态常见的不正当价格竞争问题，并提出要建立健全市场准入规则，防止资本无序扩张。而近日也有消息称，监管部门要求所有社区团购平台，不得以低于成本价倾销商品。\n有业内人士表示，随着监管趋严，社区团购依靠低价倾销、高价补贴行为，包括所有的促销活动、变相拉新，统统不被允许。这也意味着，社区团购平台将在明面上告别价格战。\n凤凰网科技注意到，多轮处罚整改后，社区团购平台已有所收敛。在十荟团、橙心优选等主流平台上，目前已看不见一分钱秒杀活动，但还有“新人专享红包”、“限时抢购”等活动。\n不打价格战，拼什么？\n由于团购补贴的收紧，多家社区团购平台订单量出现了明显下滑。“橙心优选做了五个多月，以前每天都有60多单，现在每天只有十来单，京喜拼拼才开始，一星期都很难接到几单了。”北京枣营北里社区的一位团长告诉记者。\n这一情形引发了市场的高度关注，若低价补贴不能持续，各大平台将如何吸引、留存用户与团长？社区团购赛道又将迎来怎样的改变？\n“当低价补贴不再成为吸引客户的方式后，商品品质、用户体验就成为了各平台的发力关键”。电商分析师庄帅认为，价格战被叫停后，社区团购平台将转向更为精细化的运营，包括团长的培训、规模化管理，以及品类的差异化。\n凤凰网科技调查发现，经历无序扩张和严厉监管后，社区团购正逐渐回归理性。\n美团优选相关负责人表示，目前美团优选已覆盖2600余县市，并将持续开拓村镇等下沉市场，不断加强供应链建设。在江苏，美团优选与淮安洪泽区达成了战略合作，双方将共建农采基地，并上线当地特色产品。十荟团则表示，平台已作出战略调整，将重心放在商品品质和运营效率提升方面。\n当社区团购脱掉野蛮生长的外衣后，资本也向头部品牌靠拢。数据显示，2021年的前5个月，社区团购赛道共获8轮融资，共262亿元，融资金额创历史新高。其中，兴盛优选年内获两次融资，共31亿美元；十荟团获7.5亿元融资，二者合计融资金额占赛道的95%以上。\n与此同时，社区团购行业格局也开始显现。目前，美团优选、多多买菜平台日订单已超2500万单，处于第一梯队；橙心优选、兴盛优选、十荟团日单量在1000万左右，属于第二梯队；阿里的盒马集市单量在300万左右，京喜拼拼在200万上下。巨头拉锯战，履约成角力重点\n有资深投资人认为，“当第一阶段扩市场的闪电战告终后，社区团购玩家将进入运营拉锯战。届时，复购率、团点促活、GMV将成为市场角力的重点。这不仅是平台经营能力的比拼，更是财力的考验。”\n从财报数据中可以窥见，美团优选、多多买菜等巨头仍在增加投入。美团财报显示，2020年Q4其净利润由盈转亏至14.36亿元。美团在公告中表示，亏损扩大主要系社区电商业务前期较大的投入所致，预计未来几个季度可能持续录得亏损。\n拼多多也不例外。2021年第一季度，拼多多实现营收221.67亿元，归属于普通股股东的净亏损为29.054亿元。而其营收成本为107.461元人民币，同比增长487%。有互联网人士分析称，社区团购业务的持续投入，是其成本大增的重要因素。\n上述人士表示，社区团购基于高频订单和巨大的下沉流量，有望产生巨大的生态机会，这也是巨头们持续加码的原因。\n新零售专家鲍跃忠认为，由于社区团购涉及源采、分捡、物流、仓配等众多环节，每部分成本投入都很大，考虑到部分玩家并无持续资金实力与融资能力承担亏损，行业或将仅剩几家巨头。而招商证券研报也指出，寡头垄断的行业格局预计在1-2年后基本形成。\n对于不缺资金的巨头而言，价格战被叫停后，履约能力将成为比拼的重点。\n社区团购的履约，实际上就是从中心仓到网格仓再到自提点。看似简单的配送环节，其实涉及仓储选址、品控严格化、分拣精细化、物流线路规划等问题。因而，履约本身，实际是对平台精细化运作能力的考验。\n今年以来，橙心优选、多多买菜等均将网格仓作为布局重点。据了解，自去年橙心优选发力网格仓建设以来，截止3月22日，旗下网格仓数量已接近3000家。与此同时，多多买菜则关闭了多个区域网格仓，优化仓储布局，并通过提价帮助代理商止损。另外一些玩家，则在探索通过提升人力效率，如激励团长雇佣人员送货。\n从去年巨头涌入，到今年监管叫停价格战，社区团购如今迈入了下半场战争。赛道内，巨头纷纷探索新的竞争方式，无论是拼多多、美团还是阿里、京东，谁能在履约环节更高效，谁就将走的更加长远。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120702928,"gmtCreate":1624335771064,"gmtModify":1703833824745,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120702928","repostId":"1138162924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138162924","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624335213,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138162924?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 12:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Stop the \"price war\" by supervision. What do you fight for in the second half of community group purchase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138162924","media":"iFeng科技","summary":"对于不缺资金的巨头而言，价格战被叫停后，履约能力成为比拼的重点。\n社区团购再次迎来强力监管。\n近日，有消息称，监管部门对所有社区团购平台发出的统一要求，不得以明显低于成本价倾销商品。而在此之前，国家市","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb15a141f2ea46cd897789402a4609e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war was stopped, the ability to perform contracts became the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>Community group purchase once again ushered in strong supervision.</b></p><p>Recently, it was reported that the regulatory authorities issued a unified requirement for all community group buying platforms that goods should not be dumped at a significantly lower cost price. Prior to this, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed administrative penalties on the unfair pricing behavior of Shihui Group, fined 1.5 million yuan, and ordered its Jiangsu region to rectify for 3 days.</p><p>Last year's hot community group buying entered a stage of barbaric growth after pouring into Internet giants. In order to compete for the market and cultivate user habits, major platforms have started a price war with crazy subsidies, and low-cost subsidies such as \"low-price spike killing\" and \"full reduction of new users\" have been repeatedly banned.</p><p>Nowadays, the supervision has been increased again, and the low-price subsidy of the platform has been stopped, which also makes the market worry about the development trend of community group buying. Is the money-burning expansion strategy OK? Where will the community group buying under strong supervision go?</p><p><b>Low-price dumping triggers strong supervision</b></p><p>In fact, from the end of last year to now, the supervision of community group buying has been constantly strengthened, but some platforms are still taking risks.</p><p>Take the recently fined Shihui Group as an example. The announcement of the State Administration for Market Regulation pointed out that it sold \"500g of Blue Sky Sanjing iodized refined edible salt, with a selling price of 0.1 yuan and an actual purchase cost of 0.57 yuan\" and \"Korla Xiaoxiang Pear, with a purchase cost of 3.89 yuan, with a selling price of 0.99 yuan.\"</p><p>This kind of dumping behavior below the cost price is regarded as unfair price competition that destroys the consumer market. On May 27th, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a fine to Shihui Group, with a total fine of 1.5 million yuan. That night, Shihui Group responded that the platform had removed the goods involved from the shelves at the first time and accelerated business rectification.</p><p>This wasn't the first time the Ten Hui Group had been punished, and it wasn't the only one that had been punished. In March this year, community group buying platforms such as Shihui Group, Duoduo Maicai and Meituan Preferred were fined 1.5 million yuan by the State Administration for Market Regulation for unfair prices. At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation revealed that \"if you find repeated illegal acts, you will be severely punished according to law.\"</p><p>On May 31st, 12 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Construction of a Quarter-Minute Convenient Living Circle in Cities, which once again pointed out the common unfair price competition in community e-commerce and other formats, and proposed to establish and improve market access rules to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital. Recently, it is also reported that the regulatory authorities require all community group buying platforms not to dump goods below the cost price.</p><p><b>According to industry insiders, with the tightening of supervision, community group buying relies on low-price dumping and high-price subsidies, including all promotional activities and disguised new attractions, all of which are not allowed. This also means that the community group buying platform will bid farewell to the price war on the surface.</b></p><p>Phoenix Technology noticed that after several rounds of punishment and rectification, the community group buying platform has converged. On mainstream platforms such as Shihui Group and Orange Heart Optimization, there is no penny spike killing activity at present, but there are also activities such as \"exclusive red envelopes for newcomers\" and \"limited-time rush-up\".</p><p><b>If you don't fight a price war, what do you fight?</b></p><p>Due to the tightening of group purchase subsidies, the order volume of many community group purchase platforms has dropped significantly. \"Orange Heart Selection has been working for more than five months. In the past, there were more than 60 orders every day, but now there are only about ten orders every day. Jingxi Pinpin has only started, and it is difficult to receive a few orders a week.\" A group leader of Beili Community in Zaoying, Beijing told reporters.</p><p>This situation has aroused the attention of the market. If the low-price subsidy can't be sustained, how will major platforms attract and retain users and group leaders? What kind of changes will the community group buying track usher in?</p><p>\"When low-price subsidies are no longer a way to attract customers, commodity quality and user experience have become the keys to all platforms\". Zhuang Shuai, an e-commerce analyst, believes that after the price war is stopped, the community group buying platform will turn to more refined operations, including the training of group leaders, large-scale management and category differentiation.</p><p>Phoenix Science and Technology Survey found that after disorderly expansion and strict supervision, community group buying is gradually returning to rationality.</p><p>The relevant person in charge of Meituan Optimization said that at present, Meituan Optimization has covered more than 2,600 counties and cities, and will continue to explore sinking markets such as villages and towns, and continuously strengthen supply chain construction. In Jiangsu, Meituan has reached a strategic cooperation with Hongze District of Huai'an, where both parties will jointly build an agricultural mining base and launch local specialty products. Ten Group said that the platform has made strategic adjustments, focusing on improving commodity quality and operational efficiency.</p><p>When the community group buying takes off the coat of barbaric growth, the capital also moves closer to the head brand. According to the data, in the first five months of 2021, the community group buying track received 8 rounds of financing, totaling 26.2 billion yuan, and the financing amount reached a record high. Among them, Xingsheng Preferred received two financings during the year, totaling US$3.1 billion; Ten groups received 750 million yuan of financing, and the total financing amount of the two accounted for more than 95% of the track.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c427e8c814f65db207c7399b1e832092\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, the pattern of community group buying industry has also begun to appear. At present, the daily orders of Meituan Preferred and Duoduo grocery shopping platforms have exceeded 25 million, which is in the first echelon; The daily order quantity of Orange Heart, Xingsheng and Ten Huiguan is about 10 million, which belongs to the second echelon; The order quantity of Ali's box horse market is about 3 million, and Jingxi is about 2 million.<b>Giants tug-of-war, fulfillment becomes the focus of wrestling</b></p><p>Some senior investors believe that \"when the first stage of market expansion blitzkrieg ends, community group buying players will enter a tug of war in operation. By then, repurchase rate, group promotion and GMV will become the focus of market wrestling. This is not only a competition of platform management ability, but also a test of financial resources.\"</p><p>It can be seen from the financial report data that giants such as Meituan Preferred and Duoduo Buying Food are still increasing their investment. Meituan's financial report shows that its net profit turned from profit to loss to 1.436 billion yuan in Q4 2020. Meituan said in the announcement that the expansion of losses was mainly due to the large investment in community e-commerce business in the early stage, and it is expected that losses may continue to be recorded in the next few quarters.</p><p>Pinduoduo is no exception. In the first quarter of 2021, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 22.167 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to common shareholders of 2.905.4 billion yuan. And its cost of revenue was 107.461 yuan, up 487% year-on-year. According to Internet analysts, the continuous investment of community group buying business is an important factor in its cost increase.</p><p>According to the above-mentioned people, community group buying is expected to generate huge ecological opportunities based on high-frequency orders and huge sinking traffic, which is also the reason why the giants continue to overweight.</p><p>Bao Yuezhong, a new retail expert, believes that because community group buying involves many links such as source mining, sorting, logistics, warehousing and distribution, the cost investment of each part is large. Considering that some players have no sustainable financial strength and financing ability to bear losses, there may be only a few giants left in the industry. China Merchants Securities Research Report also pointed out that the industry pattern of oligopoly is expected to basically take shape in 1-2 years.</p><p>For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war is stopped, the ability to perform contracts will become the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>The performance of community group purchase is actually from the central warehouse to the grid warehouse and then to the self-pick-up point.</b>The seemingly simple distribution link actually involves warehousing site selection, strict quality control, refined sorting, logistics route planning and other problems. Therefore, performance itself is actually a test of the platform's refined operation ability.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the grid warehouse has been the focus of the layout of Orange Heart Optimization and Duoduo Grocery Purchase. It is understood that since the construction of Orange Heart Preferred Power Grid Warehouse last year, as of March 22nd, the number of its grid warehouses has reached nearly 3,000. At the same time, Duoduo Maicai closed several regional grid warehouses, optimized the warehousing layout, and helped agents stop losses by raising prices. Other players are exploring ways to improve manpower efficiency, such as motivating group leaders to hire people to deliver goods.</p><p>From the influx of giants last year to the stop of the price war by regulation this year, community group buying has now entered the second half of the war. In the track, giants have explored new ways of competition. Whether it is Pinduoduo, Meituan, Ali or JD.COM, whoever can be more efficient in the performance process will go a longer term.</p>","source":"lsy1570585487130","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stop the \"price war\" by supervision. What do you fight for in the second half of community group purchase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStop the \"price war\" by supervision. What do you fight for in the second half of community group purchase?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">iFeng科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 12:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb15a141f2ea46cd897789402a4609e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war was stopped, the ability to perform contracts became the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>Community group purchase once again ushered in strong supervision.</b></p><p>Recently, it was reported that the regulatory authorities issued a unified requirement for all community group buying platforms that goods should not be dumped at a significantly lower cost price. Prior to this, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed administrative penalties on the unfair pricing behavior of Shihui Group, fined 1.5 million yuan, and ordered its Jiangsu region to rectify for 3 days.</p><p>Last year's hot community group buying entered a stage of barbaric growth after pouring into Internet giants. In order to compete for the market and cultivate user habits, major platforms have started a price war with crazy subsidies, and low-cost subsidies such as \"low-price spike killing\" and \"full reduction of new users\" have been repeatedly banned.</p><p>Nowadays, the supervision has been increased again, and the low-price subsidy of the platform has been stopped, which also makes the market worry about the development trend of community group buying. Is the money-burning expansion strategy OK? Where will the community group buying under strong supervision go?</p><p><b>Low-price dumping triggers strong supervision</b></p><p>In fact, from the end of last year to now, the supervision of community group buying has been constantly strengthened, but some platforms are still taking risks.</p><p>Take the recently fined Shihui Group as an example. The announcement of the State Administration for Market Regulation pointed out that it sold \"500g of Blue Sky Sanjing iodized refined edible salt, with a selling price of 0.1 yuan and an actual purchase cost of 0.57 yuan\" and \"Korla Xiaoxiang Pear, with a purchase cost of 3.89 yuan, with a selling price of 0.99 yuan.\"</p><p>This kind of dumping behavior below the cost price is regarded as unfair price competition that destroys the consumer market. On May 27th, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a fine to Shihui Group, with a total fine of 1.5 million yuan. That night, Shihui Group responded that the platform had removed the goods involved from the shelves at the first time and accelerated business rectification.</p><p>This wasn't the first time the Ten Hui Group had been punished, and it wasn't the only one that had been punished. In March this year, community group buying platforms such as Shihui Group, Duoduo Maicai and Meituan Preferred were fined 1.5 million yuan by the State Administration for Market Regulation for unfair prices. At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation revealed that \"if you find repeated illegal acts, you will be severely punished according to law.\"</p><p>On May 31st, 12 departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Construction of a Quarter-Minute Convenient Living Circle in Cities, which once again pointed out the common unfair price competition in community e-commerce and other formats, and proposed to establish and improve market access rules to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital. Recently, it is also reported that the regulatory authorities require all community group buying platforms not to dump goods below the cost price.</p><p><b>According to industry insiders, with the tightening of supervision, community group buying relies on low-price dumping and high-price subsidies, including all promotional activities and disguised new attractions, all of which are not allowed. This also means that the community group buying platform will bid farewell to the price war on the surface.</b></p><p>Phoenix Technology noticed that after several rounds of punishment and rectification, the community group buying platform has converged. On mainstream platforms such as Shihui Group and Orange Heart Optimization, there is no penny spike killing activity at present, but there are also activities such as \"exclusive red envelopes for newcomers\" and \"limited-time rush-up\".</p><p><b>If you don't fight a price war, what do you fight?</b></p><p>Due to the tightening of group purchase subsidies, the order volume of many community group purchase platforms has dropped significantly. \"Orange Heart Selection has been working for more than five months. In the past, there were more than 60 orders every day, but now there are only about ten orders every day. Jingxi Pinpin has only started, and it is difficult to receive a few orders a week.\" A group leader of Beili Community in Zaoying, Beijing told reporters.</p><p>This situation has aroused the attention of the market. If the low-price subsidy can't be sustained, how will major platforms attract and retain users and group leaders? What kind of changes will the community group buying track usher in?</p><p>\"When low-price subsidies are no longer a way to attract customers, commodity quality and user experience have become the keys to all platforms\". Zhuang Shuai, an e-commerce analyst, believes that after the price war is stopped, the community group buying platform will turn to more refined operations, including the training of group leaders, large-scale management and category differentiation.</p><p>Phoenix Science and Technology Survey found that after disorderly expansion and strict supervision, community group buying is gradually returning to rationality.</p><p>The relevant person in charge of Meituan Optimization said that at present, Meituan Optimization has covered more than 2,600 counties and cities, and will continue to explore sinking markets such as villages and towns, and continuously strengthen supply chain construction. In Jiangsu, Meituan has reached a strategic cooperation with Hongze District of Huai'an, where both parties will jointly build an agricultural mining base and launch local specialty products. Ten Group said that the platform has made strategic adjustments, focusing on improving commodity quality and operational efficiency.</p><p>When the community group buying takes off the coat of barbaric growth, the capital also moves closer to the head brand. According to the data, in the first five months of 2021, the community group buying track received 8 rounds of financing, totaling 26.2 billion yuan, and the financing amount reached a record high. Among them, Xingsheng Preferred received two financings during the year, totaling US$3.1 billion; Ten groups received 750 million yuan of financing, and the total financing amount of the two accounted for more than 95% of the track.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c427e8c814f65db207c7399b1e832092\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, the pattern of community group buying industry has also begun to appear. At present, the daily orders of Meituan Preferred and Duoduo grocery shopping platforms have exceeded 25 million, which is in the first echelon; The daily order quantity of Orange Heart, Xingsheng and Ten Huiguan is about 10 million, which belongs to the second echelon; The order quantity of Ali's box horse market is about 3 million, and Jingxi is about 2 million.<b>Giants tug-of-war, fulfillment becomes the focus of wrestling</b></p><p>Some senior investors believe that \"when the first stage of market expansion blitzkrieg ends, community group buying players will enter a tug of war in operation. By then, repurchase rate, group promotion and GMV will become the focus of market wrestling. This is not only a competition of platform management ability, but also a test of financial resources.\"</p><p>It can be seen from the financial report data that giants such as Meituan Preferred and Duoduo Buying Food are still increasing their investment. Meituan's financial report shows that its net profit turned from profit to loss to 1.436 billion yuan in Q4 2020. Meituan said in the announcement that the expansion of losses was mainly due to the large investment in community e-commerce business in the early stage, and it is expected that losses may continue to be recorded in the next few quarters.</p><p>Pinduoduo is no exception. In the first quarter of 2021, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 22.167 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to common shareholders of 2.905.4 billion yuan. And its cost of revenue was 107.461 yuan, up 487% year-on-year. According to Internet analysts, the continuous investment of community group buying business is an important factor in its cost increase.</p><p>According to the above-mentioned people, community group buying is expected to generate huge ecological opportunities based on high-frequency orders and huge sinking traffic, which is also the reason why the giants continue to overweight.</p><p>Bao Yuezhong, a new retail expert, believes that because community group buying involves many links such as source mining, sorting, logistics, warehousing and distribution, the cost investment of each part is large. Considering that some players have no sustainable financial strength and financing ability to bear losses, there may be only a few giants left in the industry. China Merchants Securities Research Report also pointed out that the industry pattern of oligopoly is expected to basically take shape in 1-2 years.</p><p>For giants who are not short of funds, after the price war is stopped, the ability to perform contracts will become the focus of the competition.</p><p><b>The performance of community group purchase is actually from the central warehouse to the grid warehouse and then to the self-pick-up point.</b>The seemingly simple distribution link actually involves warehousing site selection, strict quality control, refined sorting, logistics route planning and other problems. Therefore, performance itself is actually a test of the platform's refined operation ability.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the grid warehouse has been the focus of the layout of Orange Heart Optimization and Duoduo Grocery Purchase. It is understood that since the construction of Orange Heart Preferred Power Grid Warehouse last year, as of March 22nd, the number of its grid warehouses has reached nearly 3,000. At the same time, Duoduo Maicai closed several regional grid warehouses, optimized the warehousing layout, and helped agents stop losses by raising prices. Other players are exploring ways to improve manpower efficiency, such as motivating group leaders to hire people to deliver goods.</p><p>From the influx of giants last year to the stop of the price war by regulation this year, community group buying has now entered the second half of the war. In the track, giants have explored new ways of competition. Whether it is Pinduoduo, Meituan, Ali or JD.COM, whoever can be more efficient in the performance process will go a longer term.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LRu3XnLIKoHJxhqgq8zWuA\">iFeng科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb15a141f2ea46cd897789402a4609e0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LRu3XnLIKoHJxhqgq8zWuA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138162924","content_text":"对于不缺资金的巨头而言，价格战被叫停后，履约能力成为比拼的重点。\n社区团购再次迎来强力监管。\n近日，有消息称，监管部门对所有社区团购平台发出的统一要求，不得以明显低于成本价倾销商品。而在此之前，国家市场监管总局对十荟团不正当价格行为作出行政处罚，罚款150万元，并责令其江苏区域整顿3日。\n于去年复热的社区团购，在涌入互联网巨头后，进入了野蛮生长的阶段。为了争夺市场、培养用户习惯，各大平台以疯狂的补贴打起了价格战，“低价秒杀”、“新用户满减”等低价补贴行为屡禁不止。\n如今，监管再度加码，平台低价补贴被叫停，这也让市场担心社区团购的发展态势。烧钱扩张战略还行的通吗？强监管下的社区团购又将何去何从？\n低价倾销引发强监管\n事实上，从去年年底到现在，关于社区团购的监管正不断加强，但仍有部分平台铤而走险。\n以近期被罚的十荟团为例，市场监管总局公告指出，其销售的“蓝天三晶加碘精制食用盐500g，销售价格为0.1元，实际进货成本为0.57元”，“进货成本为3.89元的库尔勒小香梨，销售价为0.99元。”\n这种低于成本价的倾销行为，被视作破坏消费市场行情的不正当价格竞争。5月27日，市场监管总局对十荟团开出罚单，合计罚款150万元。当晚，十荟团回应称，平台已第一时间下架所涉商品，并加速业务整改。\n这不是十荟团第一次受到处罚，被处罚的也不止它一家。今年3月，十荟团、多多买菜、美团优选等社区团购平台就因不正当价格，被市场监管总局分别处以150万元罚款。同时，市场监管总局透露，“再发现屡次犯法行为，将依法从重处罚。”\n5月31日，商务部等12部门联合发布《关于推进城市一刻钟便民生活圈建设的意见》，再次指出社区电商等业态常见的不正当价格竞争问题，并提出要建立健全市场准入规则，防止资本无序扩张。而近日也有消息称，监管部门要求所有社区团购平台，不得以低于成本价倾销商品。\n有业内人士表示，随着监管趋严，社区团购依靠低价倾销、高价补贴行为，包括所有的促销活动、变相拉新，统统不被允许。这也意味着，社区团购平台将在明面上告别价格战。\n凤凰网科技注意到，多轮处罚整改后，社区团购平台已有所收敛。在十荟团、橙心优选等主流平台上，目前已看不见一分钱秒杀活动，但还有“新人专享红包”、“限时抢购”等活动。\n不打价格战，拼什么？\n由于团购补贴的收紧，多家社区团购平台订单量出现了明显下滑。“橙心优选做了五个多月，以前每天都有60多单，现在每天只有十来单，京喜拼拼才开始，一星期都很难接到几单了。”北京枣营北里社区的一位团长告诉记者。\n这一情形引发了市场的高度关注，若低价补贴不能持续，各大平台将如何吸引、留存用户与团长？社区团购赛道又将迎来怎样的改变？\n“当低价补贴不再成为吸引客户的方式后，商品品质、用户体验就成为了各平台的发力关键”。电商分析师庄帅认为，价格战被叫停后，社区团购平台将转向更为精细化的运营，包括团长的培训、规模化管理，以及品类的差异化。\n凤凰网科技调查发现，经历无序扩张和严厉监管后，社区团购正逐渐回归理性。\n美团优选相关负责人表示，目前美团优选已覆盖2600余县市，并将持续开拓村镇等下沉市场，不断加强供应链建设。在江苏，美团优选与淮安洪泽区达成了战略合作，双方将共建农采基地，并上线当地特色产品。十荟团则表示，平台已作出战略调整，将重心放在商品品质和运营效率提升方面。\n当社区团购脱掉野蛮生长的外衣后，资本也向头部品牌靠拢。数据显示，2021年的前5个月，社区团购赛道共获8轮融资，共262亿元，融资金额创历史新高。其中，兴盛优选年内获两次融资，共31亿美元；十荟团获7.5亿元融资，二者合计融资金额占赛道的95%以上。\n与此同时，社区团购行业格局也开始显现。目前，美团优选、多多买菜平台日订单已超2500万单，处于第一梯队；橙心优选、兴盛优选、十荟团日单量在1000万左右，属于第二梯队；阿里的盒马集市单量在300万左右，京喜拼拼在200万上下。巨头拉锯战，履约成角力重点\n有资深投资人认为，“当第一阶段扩市场的闪电战告终后，社区团购玩家将进入运营拉锯战。届时，复购率、团点促活、GMV将成为市场角力的重点。这不仅是平台经营能力的比拼，更是财力的考验。”\n从财报数据中可以窥见，美团优选、多多买菜等巨头仍在增加投入。美团财报显示，2020年Q4其净利润由盈转亏至14.36亿元。美团在公告中表示，亏损扩大主要系社区电商业务前期较大的投入所致，预计未来几个季度可能持续录得亏损。\n拼多多也不例外。2021年第一季度，拼多多实现营收221.67亿元，归属于普通股股东的净亏损为29.054亿元。而其营收成本为107.461元人民币，同比增长487%。有互联网人士分析称，社区团购业务的持续投入，是其成本大增的重要因素。\n上述人士表示，社区团购基于高频订单和巨大的下沉流量，有望产生巨大的生态机会，这也是巨头们持续加码的原因。\n新零售专家鲍跃忠认为，由于社区团购涉及源采、分捡、物流、仓配等众多环节，每部分成本投入都很大，考虑到部分玩家并无持续资金实力与融资能力承担亏损，行业或将仅剩几家巨头。而招商证券研报也指出，寡头垄断的行业格局预计在1-2年后基本形成。\n对于不缺资金的巨头而言，价格战被叫停后，履约能力将成为比拼的重点。\n社区团购的履约，实际上就是从中心仓到网格仓再到自提点。看似简单的配送环节，其实涉及仓储选址、品控严格化、分拣精细化、物流线路规划等问题。因而，履约本身，实际是对平台精细化运作能力的考验。\n今年以来，橙心优选、多多买菜等均将网格仓作为布局重点。据了解，自去年橙心优选发力网格仓建设以来，截止3月22日，旗下网格仓数量已接近3000家。与此同时，多多买菜则关闭了多个区域网格仓，优化仓储布局，并通过提价帮助代理商止损。另外一些玩家，则在探索通过提升人力效率，如激励团长雇佣人员送货。\n从去年巨头涌入，到今年监管叫停价格战，社区团购如今迈入了下半场战争。赛道内，巨头纷纷探索新的竞争方式，无论是拼多多、美团还是阿里、京东，谁能在履约环节更高效，谁就将走的更加长远。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167134371,"gmtCreate":1624251330293,"gmtModify":1703831619771,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up 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20:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Scary Shock or September Coming! New Debt King: Tianliang Water Release Seriously Distorts the Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174161709","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型","content":"<p><i>The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the amount of time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers the self-employed, part-time, and gig workers, as well as the Mixed Income Earners Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program, which supports those who are self-employed and mixed earners. All of these plans will expire on September 6 of this year. Gundlach, the new debt king, predicted that there would be a \"major shock\" to the economy by then, because people's discretionary income would be drastically reduced.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the restart in the post-epidemic era is slow, and on the other hand, the fiscal stimulus of the federal government. In the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Double Line Capital, the interaction between the two has \"seriously distorted\" the US economy.</p><p>The famous \"debt king\" pointed out in a webcast Tuesday that countless companies across the United States, large and small, are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to run and expand their operations. Although \"a large number of jobs are vacant, they can't be filled in time because the federal government is competing with private companies\". More than $140 billion in investments under Two-Line Capital is clearly being referred to by Gundlach in terms of overly generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than 90-minute webcast, he also touched on many of his other views on the post-pandemic economy.</p><p><b>Inflation expectations</b></p><p>Gundlach said that although inflation is rising rapidly now, it may really be only temporary. At present, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventories are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of this is obviously likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"</p><p>The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures long-term changes in the selling prices of goods and services across the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rally will last. Gundlach predicted that even if prices continue to rise, the pace of the index's rise may slow.</p><p><b>Distorted departments</b></p><p>\"What we haven't really studied right now is actually some special areas of the economy, such as used cars,\" Gundlach analyzed. \"The prices of these goods have almost doubled in the past year.\" He also recently discovered that the prices of used trucks are not much the same as those of new trucks, and in fact, they are out of stock almost across the United States. \"This situation is clearly unsustainable.\" Gunlack added that these high prices are clearly \"insufficient to create an anti-inflationary trend.\"</p><p>Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gundlach pointed out that the nation's residential inventory has now fallen to levels that have not been seen in years, and in some areas, there are no homes even available for sale. In many places, he says, there are even ten times as many real estate agents as they sell homes, \"which is not good news for brokerage firms.\"</p><p>Demand for residential construction and renovation materials has also remained high, directly causing the price of timber to explode, joining the army of other commodity prices skyrocketing, but Gundlach believes that these troubles may have peaked.</p><p>Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates continue to remain low. \"Although the recovery in all sectors of the economy is ongoing, and it has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of returning to the company office is very slow. \"Unless there is a recurrence of the epidemic,\" Gundlach predicts, the return-to-office change will peak by the end of the summer.</p><p>But even so, I am afraid that the business operation will not be as it used to be. \"Many people have said that they want to work from home more days. Now that virtual technology is so developed, and reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can improve efficiency because a lot of communication time is removed.\"</p><p><b>Overseas Stocks vs. USD</b></p><p>For many years, the U.S. stock market has been performing better than overseas stocks. In recent times, however, the gap between the two is narrowing. \"Non-U.S. stocks have begun to keep pace with U.S. stocks and no longer allow the latter to take precedence.\" Gundlach noted that if the dollar starts to move lower, the picture could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He recently began investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.</p><p>\"There are ample signs that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,\" Mr. Gundlach added, adding that in the short term, he would take a temporary neutral stance on the dollar.</p><p>In the long run, the eventual decline of the dollar is a near-immutable trend, after all, the U.S. trade deficit and budget deficit have now \"doubled from what we once thought was a bad level\". After Americans get their stimulus checks from the government, many of them spend them on products, many of which are made in Asia, and that only further expands the trade deficit.</p><p>\"The recent emergence of retail investors is surprisingly strong. In fact, it is also a distortion, and its root cause lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"</p><p><b>Unemployment benefit 'shock'</b></p><p>During the pandemic, the number of first-time weekly claims for unemployment benefits has inevitably increased significantly, and this figure has yet to return to normal levels. While state unemployment rates are beginning to normalize, it is \"delusional\" to really normalize, Gundlach said, because federal stimulus benefits continue to be paid out.</p><p>The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the amount of time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers the self-employed, part-time, and gig workers, as well as the Mixed Income Earners Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program, which supports those who are self-employed and mixed earners. All of these plans will expire on September 6 of this year. By that time, Gundlach predicted, there would be a \"major shock\" to the economy, as people's discretionary income would be drastically reduced.</p><p>The shock may reverse some of the jaw-dropping momentum now, such as the acute scarcity of homes and cars. That is perhaps \"the strongest basis for thinking that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon-but it also means that the economy could suffer a major reversal as a result,\" Gundlach said.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Scary Shock or September Coming! New Debt King: Tianliang Water Release Seriously Distorts the Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nScary Shock or September Coming! New Debt King: Tianliang Water Release Seriously Distorts the Economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the amount of time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers the self-employed, part-time, and gig workers, as well as the Mixed Income Earners Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program, which supports those who are self-employed and mixed earners. All of these plans will expire on September 6 of this year. Gundlach, the new debt king, predicted that there would be a \"major shock\" to the economy by then, because people's discretionary income would be drastically reduced.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the restart in the post-epidemic era is slow, and on the other hand, the fiscal stimulus of the federal government. In the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of Double Line Capital, the interaction between the two has \"seriously distorted\" the US economy.</p><p>The famous \"debt king\" pointed out in a webcast Tuesday that countless companies across the United States, large and small, are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to run and expand their operations. Although \"a large number of jobs are vacant, they can't be filled in time because the federal government is competing with private companies\". More than $140 billion in investments under Two-Line Capital is clearly being referred to by Gundlach in terms of overly generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than 90-minute webcast, he also touched on many of his other views on the post-pandemic economy.</p><p><b>Inflation expectations</b></p><p>Gundlach said that although inflation is rising rapidly now, it may really be only temporary. At present, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventories are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of this is obviously likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"</p><p>The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures long-term changes in the selling prices of goods and services across the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rally will last. Gundlach predicted that even if prices continue to rise, the pace of the index's rise may slow.</p><p><b>Distorted departments</b></p><p>\"What we haven't really studied right now is actually some special areas of the economy, such as used cars,\" Gundlach analyzed. \"The prices of these goods have almost doubled in the past year.\" He also recently discovered that the prices of used trucks are not much the same as those of new trucks, and in fact, they are out of stock almost across the United States. \"This situation is clearly unsustainable.\" Gunlack added that these high prices are clearly \"insufficient to create an anti-inflationary trend.\"</p><p>Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gundlach pointed out that the nation's residential inventory has now fallen to levels that have not been seen in years, and in some areas, there are no homes even available for sale. In many places, he says, there are even ten times as many real estate agents as they sell homes, \"which is not good news for brokerage firms.\"</p><p>Demand for residential construction and renovation materials has also remained high, directly causing the price of timber to explode, joining the army of other commodity prices skyrocketing, but Gundlach believes that these troubles may have peaked.</p><p>Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates continue to remain low. \"Although the recovery in all sectors of the economy is ongoing, and it has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of returning to the company office is very slow. \"Unless there is a recurrence of the epidemic,\" Gundlach predicts, the return-to-office change will peak by the end of the summer.</p><p>But even so, I am afraid that the business operation will not be as it used to be. \"Many people have said that they want to work from home more days. Now that virtual technology is so developed, and reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can improve efficiency because a lot of communication time is removed.\"</p><p><b>Overseas Stocks vs. USD</b></p><p>For many years, the U.S. stock market has been performing better than overseas stocks. In recent times, however, the gap between the two is narrowing. \"Non-U.S. stocks have begun to keep pace with U.S. stocks and no longer allow the latter to take precedence.\" Gundlach noted that if the dollar starts to move lower, the picture could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He recently began investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.</p><p>\"There are ample signs that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,\" Mr. Gundlach added, adding that in the short term, he would take a temporary neutral stance on the dollar.</p><p>In the long run, the eventual decline of the dollar is a near-immutable trend, after all, the U.S. trade deficit and budget deficit have now \"doubled from what we once thought was a bad level\". After Americans get their stimulus checks from the government, many of them spend them on products, many of which are made in Asia, and that only further expands the trade deficit.</p><p>\"The recent emergence of retail investors is surprisingly strong. In fact, it is also a distortion, and its root cause lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"</p><p><b>Unemployment benefit 'shock'</b></p><p>During the pandemic, the number of first-time weekly claims for unemployment benefits has inevitably increased significantly, and this figure has yet to return to normal levels. While state unemployment rates are beginning to normalize, it is \"delusional\" to really normalize, Gundlach said, because federal stimulus benefits continue to be paid out.</p><p>The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the amount of time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers the self-employed, part-time, and gig workers, as well as the Mixed Income Earners Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program, which supports those who are self-employed and mixed earners. All of these plans will expire on September 6 of this year. By that time, Gundlach predicted, there would be a \"major shock\" to the economy, as people's discretionary income would be drastically reduced.</p><p>The shock may reverse some of the jaw-dropping momentum now, such as the acute scarcity of homes and cars. That is perhaps \"the strongest basis for thinking that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon-but it also means that the economy could suffer a major reversal as a result,\" Gundlach said.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174161709","content_text":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。新债王冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n一方面是后疫情时代的重启步履迟缓，一方面是联邦政府的财政刺激，在双线资本创始人冈拉克（JeffreyGundlach）看来，两者交相作用，已经使得美国经济受到“严重扭曲”。\n这位鼎鼎大名的“债王”在周二的网络广播当中指出，全美层面，无数大大小小的企业都发现，想要招募到足够公司运转下去和扩大经营的人手正变得极端困难。虽然“为数众多的岗位都空缺着，但是却无法及时得到填补，这都是因为联邦政府在同私人企业竞争的缘故”。双线资本旗下管理着超过1400亿美元投资，冈拉克这里所指的，显然是过于慷慨大度的失业救济补贴。在周二长达九十多分钟的网络广播当中，他还谈到了自己对后疫情时代经济的许多其他看法。\n通货膨胀预期\n冈拉克表示，虽然通货膨胀现在正在急速抬头，但是这真的可能只是暂时性的。目前，食品价格高企，制造业库存水平处在近二十年来的最低点。“这些显然都不可能对通货膨胀造成下行的压力。”\n度量全美商品和服务销售价格长期变化的生产者价格指数（PPI）也一直在上涨，但是没有人知道这涨势会持续多久。冈拉克预言说，即便价格还会继续走高，但是指数的上涨速度可能将会放缓。\n被扭曲的部门\n“我们现在并没有真正认真去研究的，其实是经济当中的一些特殊领域，比如二手汽车。”冈拉克分析道，“这些商品的价格在过去一年时间里几乎翻了一番。”他最近还发现，现在二手卡车的价格已经和新卡车相去无几，而且事实上几乎是在全美范围内断货了。“这种局面显然是不可持久的。”冈拉克补充说，这些高企的价格显然“不足以形成反通货膨胀趋势”。\n住宅库存也是经济当中被“高度扭曲”的一个部门。冈拉克指出，现在全美住宅库存已经跌到了多年以来仅见的水平，在一些地区，甚至已经找不到待售的住宅了。他说，在许多地方，房地产经纪商的数量甚至要十倍于他们销售的住宅，“这对于经纪行来说可不是什么好消息”。\n住宅建筑和翻修材料的需求也居高不下，直接导致木材价格大爆炸，加入了其他商品价格暴涨的大军，但是冈拉克认为，这些麻烦可能已经见顶了。\n办公房地产价格还在持续暴跌，入住率持续保持低水平。“虽然经济各个领域当中的复苏都在进行当中，而且还导致了这些通货膨胀压力的出现”，但是大家回公司办公的进程却很迟缓。冈拉克预计说，“除非疫情出现反复”，不然到夏季结束的时候，回去办公的变化就会迎来峰值。\n不过即便如此，企业经营恐怕也不会再像以前那样了。“许多人都表示，希望多一点在家办公的日子，现在虚拟技术已经如此发达，而且现实已经证明，在一些情况下，因为去除了大量沟通的时间，在家上班反而能够提高效率。”\n海外股票与美元\n此前的许多年时间当中，美国股市的表现一直都要好于海外股市。不过近期以来，两者之间的差距正在缩小。“非美股票已经开始与美国股票表现并驾齐驱，不再让后者专美于前。”冈拉克指出，如果美元汇率开始走低，局面就可能变得对海外股票更加有利。他近期已经职业生涯第一次开始投资海外股市。\n“有充分的迹象显示，中期到长期之内，美元将会趋向疲软。”冈拉克补充道，只是短期之内，他会暂时对美元持中立立场。\n长期角度看来，美元汇率最终走低已经是近乎不可改变的趋势，毕竟美国的贸易赤字和预算赤字现在已经“较之我们曾经以为很糟糕的水平又翻了一番”。美国人从政府拿到他们的刺激支票之后，很多人都将其用于购买产品了，而这些产品当中许多都是在亚洲生产的，而这只能让贸易赤字进一步扩大。\n“散户投资者近来异军突起，强势惊人，其实同样是一种扭曲，而其根源就在于来自政府的可任意支配收入。”\n失业救济“冲击”\n在疫情期间，每周首度申报失业救济人数不可避免地大幅增加，而这一数据至今尚未恢复正常水平。各州的失业率虽然已经开始趋向常态，但是要真正正常化完全是“妄想”，冈拉克说，这是因为联邦刺激福利还在持续发放。\n联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n这一冲击也许会扭转目前一些令人瞠目结舌的势头，比如住宅和汽车的严重稀缺。冈拉克说，这也许是“认为通货膨胀将只是暂时性现象的最有力根据——不过，这同时也意味着经济可能因此遭遇重大反转”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005168094,"gmtCreate":1642208635361,"gmtModify":1676533692389,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666&nbsp;","listText":"666&nbsp;","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005168094","repostId":"1140376268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140376268","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1642206680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140376268?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-15 08:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"28 Billion Rights Issue! The securities \"first brother\" first collapsed himself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140376268","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"有些公司你买入持有，每年还有分红送钱，可是有些公司你买入了，不但没钱送，反而还得向你要钱。昨晚，券商“一哥”中信证券历时11个月的“要钱”计划正式落地，280亿的配股规模，超过招商证券2020年的12","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some companies you buy and hold, and there are dividends and money every year, but some companies you buy, not only have no money to give, but have to ask you for money.</p><p>Last night, the brokerage \"first brother\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The 11-month \"asking for money\" plan officially landed, and the scale of 28 billion rights issue exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>The rights issue of 12.7 billion yuan in 2020 became the largest rights issue financing in the brokerage industry.</p><p><b>Rights allotment has always had a short-term negative impact on the stock price. For holders, \"beating\" is definitely indispensable, and they have to consider whether to participate in rights allotment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d857b3724e40eef11047ff3e34d8434\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>time-sharing trend)</p><p>In early trading today, CITIC Securities jumped 3% from open low as expected, and went all the way to the black, dragging a group of \"younger brothers\" in the whole securities sector into the water. If the Shanghai Composite Index underperformed the GEM index today, there must be CITIC Securities'\"credit\". By the close, CITIC Securities fell 5% to close almost at its lowest level, and the securities sector fell 2.38%.</p><p>In the memory of most old investors, CITIC Securities is the big brother in the industry. Thinking back to 2015, CITIC Securities was arrogant, once becoming the largest brokerage giant in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. However, six years later, it was pulled down by Dongcai in China.</p><p>The market value of CITIC Securities was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Beyond, falling to the second place. Although Oriental Fortune has fallen somewhat these days, its market value still exceeds that of CITIC Securities by a lot.</p><p>With this huge rights issue of 28 billion yuan, can the first brother save his dignity?</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>Who did the rights issue benefit?</b></p><p><b>For CITIC Securities itself, rights issue is a more suitable refinancing method at present. On the one hand, it can directly obtain large amount of financing from the market, and on the other hand, it does not dilute the equity of controlling shareholders.</b></p><p>The rights issue is directly faced to all old shareholders, so the financial pressure shared with each investor will be much less. In addition, the equity proportion of major shareholders of CITIC Securities is inherently very low, and direct rights issue will not dilute the equity. From the third quarter, the proportion of equity held by CITIC Co., Ltd., the major shareholder, is not high, accounting for only 15.47%.</p><p>In this capital allocation, CITIC Securities raised about 28 billion yuan in this rights allocation, of which 23 billion yuan in A-share rights allocation and 5 billion yuan in H-share rights allocation.</p><p>If 28 billion yuan is raised, it is equivalent to directly supplying 28 billion yuan of net cash assets. At the end of 2021, the company's net assets were 209.1 billion yuan, which will exceed 237 billion yuan after the completion of the rights issue, and the gap between Haitong, the second place, will exceed 70 billion yuan.</p><p>In the brokerage industry, total assets are undoubtedly the most important way to consider, so this rights issue will greatly increase the asset scale of CITIC Securities, thus further consolidating its leading position in the industry.</p><p><b>However, the rights issue may have short-term negative effects for investors. On the one hand, after the rights issue, the share price is diluted, and the number of stocks in circulation will increase. On the other hand, if you don't participate in the rights issue, the lower the rights issue price, the more you will lose.</b></p><p>According to the announcement, the rights issue will be placed to all holders of A shares at the ratio of 1.5 shares for every 10 shares. The allotment price is 14.43 yuan/share, which is lower than the closing price of 26.36 yuan the previous day, which is equivalent to a 55% discount.</p><p>If you have 100 shares of CITIC Securities in your hand, then you have the first subscription right of 15 shares in this rights issue. Of course, you can also give up the subscription right of these 15 shares, that is, give up the rights.</p><p>For investors who have not sold their holdings, if they don't participate in the rights issue, they will have to bear a loss of 6%. The question is, now that there has been a certain decline, is CITIC Securities still worth matching?</p><p>In the short term, today's stock price plummeted by 5%. When the stock price opened on Monday, it fell directly to around 24.8 yuan, the price after ex-rights of the rights issue. According to the closing price of 25.03, it was less than 1%. That is to say, if you have not sold off after being \"beaten\" today, and you don't want to pay for rights issue, you will lose another 1% at most.</p><p>As for whether it is optimistic later, it has to test investors' beliefs.</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>Challenged</b></p><p><b>The worst thing about CITIC Securities being \"hacked\" is its reverse indicator.</b></p><p>Last year's vigorous big white horse market, CITIC Securities on February 10th will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The target price was set at 3,000 yuan, and the share price of Kweichow Moutai rose by 5.9% on that day, which was also the last positive line before the share price of Kweichow Moutai peaked.</p><p>Everyone knows the story since then. Maotai fell by 35% in just half a year, with the latest share price of 1,662 yuan and the market value evaporating by 11,000 yuan.</p><p>Last July,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>Driving wildly and rising all the way, CITIC Securities released a research report on July 30th, saying that it maintained the buy rating of CATL, with a target price of 754 yuan/share in 2023. Compared with the closing price of 556.8 yuan on the 29th, it is 35% higher. Unfortunately, however, Ningwang hit a record high on the 30th, but closed down 1.15% in a single day, and opened the road to pullback/retracement, during which it once fell below 470 yuan.</p><p><b>Bullish targets can't work, but bearish targets seem to have influence.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600927\">Yongan Futures</a>It was listed at the issue price of 17.97 yuan on December 23, 2021. After listing, it reached the daily limit for 6 consecutive days, and reached the highest price of 41.69 yuan on December 30, with a market value once exceeding 60 billion yuan. Then on December 31st, Yong 'an Futures showed a limit adjustment, while CITIC Securities released a research report on January 3rd, 2022, and stepped on Yong' an Futures again, saying that the stock price had 35% downside. As a result, the opening of \"Qimao\" in the New Year crashed again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fccb088cf8458fdf5b2f6011ef62c62\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice, time-sharing trend of Yongan Futures)</p><p>Unfortunately, today, Yongan Futures had a daily limit, closing at 34.41, an increase of 8.27%. It seems that it is far from the bearish target price of 22 yuan of CITIC Securities.</p><p>Ningde, Maotai, etc. are undoubtedly very good companies in various tracks, and the valuation of Yongan Futures is also not a cheap target. However, when CITIC Securities gives the target price, sometimes luck is a little back, resulting in the short-term loss of some accuracy.</p><p><b>The deviation from the target price is not limited to the tickets widely talked about by these investors. Of course, there are also drastic changes in factors such as the macro environment and the deviation of the main line of market speculation. It is just a coincidence that the \"first brother\" met.</b></p><p>In addition to the direction indicator being hacked, the company's market value has been lagging behind Oriental Fortune recently. 50 brokers with a total market value of 4 trillion yuan. Oriental Fortune, the brother of the brokerage, is 334 billion yuan, which is 10.4 billion yuan higher than CITIC Securities. You know, in the 2015 bull market, when CITIC's historical stock price was the highest, its market value approached 400 billion yuan. At that time, Dongcai was less than 50 billion yuan, and its market value ranked outside the 20th place. The former was eight times that of the latter.</p><p><b>Of course, in the same industry, the mentality of holding Dongcai and CITIC is very different.</b>Since its listing in 2010, Dongcai has increased by 32 times, while CITIC has increased by less than double in the same period. In 2021, Dongcai rose 44%, while CITIC Securities fell 9% instead.</p><p>There is no harm without comparison. It can be seen that investors who hold CITIC Securities are puzzled.</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>A skinny camel is bigger than a horse</b></p><p>While market capitalization is temporarily lagging behind, Big Brother<b>CITIC's fundamentals are relatively solid.</b></p><p>Just the day before the rights issue announcement was issued yesterday, CITIC Securities also showed its \"muscles\" to investors. The company released its 2021 annual performance report, of which the revenue was 76.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, and the ROE, which value investors pay more attention to, was 12.01%, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2780f5270ca95f901cd5683b4cb812fe\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Flush</a>CITIC Securities Performance Express)</p><p>In the fourth quarter alone, the company's revenue was about 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than double. In this way, the company's fourth-quarter performance greatly exceeded expectations.</p><p><b>Exceeding expectations was mainly due to the upward market sentiment in the fourth quarter, the rapid development of derivatives business, and the year-on-year increase of investment banking business and other business income.</b></p><p>In addition, many indicators of CITIC Securities are still in the forefront, and the position of Big Brother is not easy to shake.</p><p>In 2021, the IPO scale of CITIC Securities was 85 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 88%, ranking first in the industry; The number of IPOs was 68, an increase of 27 over last year, ranking first in the industry. The refinancing scale was 253.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, ranking first in the industry. Bond underwriting was 1,563.4 billion yuan, +20% year-on-year, ranking first in the industry. Net income of asset management business in the third quarter remained first, with an increase of more than 64%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4069729236c1f8455fca314d212fcb6\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: AVIC Securities, growth rate of asset management business of listed securities firms)</p><p>For this large financing purpose, capital intermediary business accounts for the vast majority. Of the 28 billion yuan funds, the company will use no more than 19 billion yuan for capital intermediary business.</p><p>Intermediary businesses generally include margin financing and securities lending, stock pledge, income swap, equity derivatives, commodity derivatives, market-making transactions, cross-border transactions, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35cd2dac3004171044926b7426dc8e6\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>Revenue structure of each business of CITIC Securities)</p><p>Judging from the company's past business income structure, the company's business is becoming more and more balanced. The proportion of the company's traditional brokerage business is decreasing year by year, while the proportion of intermediary business has become an important business growth point of the company.</p><p>Generally speaking, capital intermediary business is characterized by a wide range of customers, rich products, stable interest spreads and controllable risks, which is the business direction that the company has focused on in recent years. The pilot of market-making trading in science and technology innovation board is imminent, and the company's growth is guaranteed by funds.</p><p><b>Some institutions predict that the company's rights issue will be mainly used to develop capital intermediary business. The intermediary business is mainly over-the-counter derivatives business and financing business, all of which are high-quality businesses with relatively neutral risks and high ROA. The rights issue will have a short-term direct impact of about 0.8% on the company's ROE, but it is expected that the company's ROE will rise to 12% in 2023 after the rights issue fundraising is put into operation.</b></p><p>In this way, the status of the company's \"first brother\" can still be preserved.</p><p><i><b>04、</b></i><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The biggest hurt to fund-raising is the shareholders. Although it has plummeted today and almost erased the gap, the final ex-right price is still higher than the closing price.<b>There is still some room for adjustment in a short time.</b></p><p><b>However, in the long run, the fundamentals of \"First Brother\" are still relatively solid. The large amount of money raised by the rights issue will undoubtedly improve the company's asset quality and asset scale, and then build an aircraft carrier-level brokerage.</b></p><p>As for whether or not, the company's management has the foresight to make some judgments on the securities market. While it can still make money at this time, it is unknown to do more.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>28 Billion Rights Issue! The securities \"first brother\" first collapsed himself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n28 Billion Rights Issue! The securities \"first brother\" first collapsed himself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-15 08:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some companies you buy and hold, and there are dividends and money every year, but some companies you buy, not only have no money to give, but have to ask you for money.</p><p>Last night, the brokerage \"first brother\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The 11-month \"asking for money\" plan officially landed, and the scale of 28 billion rights issue exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>The rights issue of 12.7 billion yuan in 2020 became the largest rights issue financing in the brokerage industry.</p><p><b>Rights allotment has always had a short-term negative impact on the stock price. For holders, \"beating\" is definitely indispensable, and they have to consider whether to participate in rights allotment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d857b3724e40eef11047ff3e34d8434\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>time-sharing trend)</p><p>In early trading today, CITIC Securities jumped 3% from open low as expected, and went all the way to the black, dragging a group of \"younger brothers\" in the whole securities sector into the water. If the Shanghai Composite Index underperformed the GEM index today, there must be CITIC Securities'\"credit\". By the close, CITIC Securities fell 5% to close almost at its lowest level, and the securities sector fell 2.38%.</p><p>In the memory of most old investors, CITIC Securities is the big brother in the industry. Thinking back to 2015, CITIC Securities was arrogant, once becoming the largest brokerage giant in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. However, six years later, it was pulled down by Dongcai in China.</p><p>The market value of CITIC Securities was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Beyond, falling to the second place. Although Oriental Fortune has fallen somewhat these days, its market value still exceeds that of CITIC Securities by a lot.</p><p>With this huge rights issue of 28 billion yuan, can the first brother save his dignity?</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>Who did the rights issue benefit?</b></p><p><b>For CITIC Securities itself, rights issue is a more suitable refinancing method at present. On the one hand, it can directly obtain large amount of financing from the market, and on the other hand, it does not dilute the equity of controlling shareholders.</b></p><p>The rights issue is directly faced to all old shareholders, so the financial pressure shared with each investor will be much less. In addition, the equity proportion of major shareholders of CITIC Securities is inherently very low, and direct rights issue will not dilute the equity. From the third quarter, the proportion of equity held by CITIC Co., Ltd., the major shareholder, is not high, accounting for only 15.47%.</p><p>In this capital allocation, CITIC Securities raised about 28 billion yuan in this rights allocation, of which 23 billion yuan in A-share rights allocation and 5 billion yuan in H-share rights allocation.</p><p>If 28 billion yuan is raised, it is equivalent to directly supplying 28 billion yuan of net cash assets. At the end of 2021, the company's net assets were 209.1 billion yuan, which will exceed 237 billion yuan after the completion of the rights issue, and the gap between Haitong, the second place, will exceed 70 billion yuan.</p><p>In the brokerage industry, total assets are undoubtedly the most important way to consider, so this rights issue will greatly increase the asset scale of CITIC Securities, thus further consolidating its leading position in the industry.</p><p><b>However, the rights issue may have short-term negative effects for investors. On the one hand, after the rights issue, the share price is diluted, and the number of stocks in circulation will increase. On the other hand, if you don't participate in the rights issue, the lower the rights issue price, the more you will lose.</b></p><p>According to the announcement, the rights issue will be placed to all holders of A shares at the ratio of 1.5 shares for every 10 shares. The allotment price is 14.43 yuan/share, which is lower than the closing price of 26.36 yuan the previous day, which is equivalent to a 55% discount.</p><p>If you have 100 shares of CITIC Securities in your hand, then you have the first subscription right of 15 shares in this rights issue. Of course, you can also give up the subscription right of these 15 shares, that is, give up the rights.</p><p>For investors who have not sold their holdings, if they don't participate in the rights issue, they will have to bear a loss of 6%. The question is, now that there has been a certain decline, is CITIC Securities still worth matching?</p><p>In the short term, today's stock price plummeted by 5%. When the stock price opened on Monday, it fell directly to around 24.8 yuan, the price after ex-rights of the rights issue. According to the closing price of 25.03, it was less than 1%. That is to say, if you have not sold off after being \"beaten\" today, and you don't want to pay for rights issue, you will lose another 1% at most.</p><p>As for whether it is optimistic later, it has to test investors' beliefs.</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>Challenged</b></p><p><b>The worst thing about CITIC Securities being \"hacked\" is its reverse indicator.</b></p><p>Last year's vigorous big white horse market, CITIC Securities on February 10th will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The target price was set at 3,000 yuan, and the share price of Kweichow Moutai rose by 5.9% on that day, which was also the last positive line before the share price of Kweichow Moutai peaked.</p><p>Everyone knows the story since then. Maotai fell by 35% in just half a year, with the latest share price of 1,662 yuan and the market value evaporating by 11,000 yuan.</p><p>Last July,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>Driving wildly and rising all the way, CITIC Securities released a research report on July 30th, saying that it maintained the buy rating of CATL, with a target price of 754 yuan/share in 2023. Compared with the closing price of 556.8 yuan on the 29th, it is 35% higher. Unfortunately, however, Ningwang hit a record high on the 30th, but closed down 1.15% in a single day, and opened the road to pullback/retracement, during which it once fell below 470 yuan.</p><p><b>Bullish targets can't work, but bearish targets seem to have influence.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600927\">Yongan Futures</a>It was listed at the issue price of 17.97 yuan on December 23, 2021. After listing, it reached the daily limit for 6 consecutive days, and reached the highest price of 41.69 yuan on December 30, with a market value once exceeding 60 billion yuan. Then on December 31st, Yong 'an Futures showed a limit adjustment, while CITIC Securities released a research report on January 3rd, 2022, and stepped on Yong' an Futures again, saying that the stock price had 35% downside. As a result, the opening of \"Qimao\" in the New Year crashed again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fccb088cf8458fdf5b2f6011ef62c62\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data source: Choice, time-sharing trend of Yongan Futures)</p><p>Unfortunately, today, Yongan Futures had a daily limit, closing at 34.41, an increase of 8.27%. It seems that it is far from the bearish target price of 22 yuan of CITIC Securities.</p><p>Ningde, Maotai, etc. are undoubtedly very good companies in various tracks, and the valuation of Yongan Futures is also not a cheap target. However, when CITIC Securities gives the target price, sometimes luck is a little back, resulting in the short-term loss of some accuracy.</p><p><b>The deviation from the target price is not limited to the tickets widely talked about by these investors. Of course, there are also drastic changes in factors such as the macro environment and the deviation of the main line of market speculation. It is just a coincidence that the \"first brother\" met.</b></p><p>In addition to the direction indicator being hacked, the company's market value has been lagging behind Oriental Fortune recently. 50 brokers with a total market value of 4 trillion yuan. Oriental Fortune, the brother of the brokerage, is 334 billion yuan, which is 10.4 billion yuan higher than CITIC Securities. You know, in the 2015 bull market, when CITIC's historical stock price was the highest, its market value approached 400 billion yuan. At that time, Dongcai was less than 50 billion yuan, and its market value ranked outside the 20th place. The former was eight times that of the latter.</p><p><b>Of course, in the same industry, the mentality of holding Dongcai and CITIC is very different.</b>Since its listing in 2010, Dongcai has increased by 32 times, while CITIC has increased by less than double in the same period. In 2021, Dongcai rose 44%, while CITIC Securities fell 9% instead.</p><p>There is no harm without comparison. It can be seen that investors who hold CITIC Securities are puzzled.</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>A skinny camel is bigger than a horse</b></p><p>While market capitalization is temporarily lagging behind, Big Brother<b>CITIC's fundamentals are relatively solid.</b></p><p>Just the day before the rights issue announcement was issued yesterday, CITIC Securities also showed its \"muscles\" to investors. The company released its 2021 annual performance report, of which the revenue was 76.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%, and the ROE, which value investors pay more attention to, was 12.01%, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2780f5270ca95f901cd5683b4cb812fe\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">Flush</a>CITIC Securities Performance Express)</p><p>In the fourth quarter alone, the company's revenue was about 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than double. In this way, the company's fourth-quarter performance greatly exceeded expectations.</p><p><b>Exceeding expectations was mainly due to the upward market sentiment in the fourth quarter, the rapid development of derivatives business, and the year-on-year increase of investment banking business and other business income.</b></p><p>In addition, many indicators of CITIC Securities are still in the forefront, and the position of Big Brother is not easy to shake.</p><p>In 2021, the IPO scale of CITIC Securities was 85 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 88%, ranking first in the industry; The number of IPOs was 68, an increase of 27 over last year, ranking first in the industry. The refinancing scale was 253.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, ranking first in the industry. Bond underwriting was 1,563.4 billion yuan, +20% year-on-year, ranking first in the industry. Net income of asset management business in the third quarter remained first, with an increase of more than 64%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4069729236c1f8455fca314d212fcb6\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: AVIC Securities, growth rate of asset management business of listed securities firms)</p><p>For this large financing purpose, capital intermediary business accounts for the vast majority. Of the 28 billion yuan funds, the company will use no more than 19 billion yuan for capital intermediary business.</p><p>Intermediary businesses generally include margin financing and securities lending, stock pledge, income swap, equity derivatives, commodity derivatives, market-making transactions, cross-border transactions, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35cd2dac3004171044926b7426dc8e6\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Data Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>Revenue structure of each business of CITIC Securities)</p><p>Judging from the company's past business income structure, the company's business is becoming more and more balanced. The proportion of the company's traditional brokerage business is decreasing year by year, while the proportion of intermediary business has become an important business growth point of the company.</p><p>Generally speaking, capital intermediary business is characterized by a wide range of customers, rich products, stable interest spreads and controllable risks, which is the business direction that the company has focused on in recent years. The pilot of market-making trading in science and technology innovation board is imminent, and the company's growth is guaranteed by funds.</p><p><b>Some institutions predict that the company's rights issue will be mainly used to develop capital intermediary business. The intermediary business is mainly over-the-counter derivatives business and financing business, all of which are high-quality businesses with relatively neutral risks and high ROA. The rights issue will have a short-term direct impact of about 0.8% on the company's ROE, but it is expected that the company's ROE will rise to 12% in 2023 after the rights issue fundraising is put into operation.</b></p><p>In this way, the status of the company's \"first brother\" can still be preserved.</p><p><i><b>04、</b></i><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The biggest hurt to fund-raising is the shareholders. Although it has plummeted today and almost erased the gap, the final ex-right price is still higher than the closing price.<b>There is still some room for adjustment in a short time.</b></p><p><b>However, in the long run, the fundamentals of \"First Brother\" are still relatively solid. The large amount of money raised by the rights issue will undoubtedly improve the company's asset quality and asset scale, and then build an aircraft carrier-level brokerage.</b></p><p>As for whether or not, the company's management has the foresight to make some judgments on the securities market. While it can still make money at this time, it is unknown to do more.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ca889a3e1a80f90c55621f8f5d7c3a","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140376268","content_text":"有些公司你买入持有，每年还有分红送钱，可是有些公司你买入了，不但没钱送，反而还得向你要钱。昨晚，券商“一哥”中信证券历时11个月的“要钱”计划正式落地，280亿的配股规模，超过招商证券2020年的127亿元配股，成为券商行业最大的一次配股融资。配股向来都会对股价带来短期负面影响，对于持有的股民来说，“挨打”肯定是少不了，还得考虑是否参与配股。（数据来源：Choice，中信证券分时走势）今日早盘，中信证券不出意外的跳空低开3%，而且一路走到黑，把整个证券板块一众“小弟”拖下水，要是说上证指数今日跑输创业板指数，肯定有中信证券的“功劳”。截至收盘，中信证券下跌5%，几乎收在最低位，证券板块下跌2.38%。在多数老股民记忆里，中信证券都是行业内的老大哥，遥想2015年，中信证券不可一世，一度成为亚洲第一大，全球第四大券商巨头，而6年过去了，在国内竟被东财拉下马来。中信证券市值在今年6月被东方财富超越，落到第二，尽管东方财富这些天有些回落，但市值依然超中信证券不少。这次280亿的巨额配股，一哥能挽回自己的尊严吗？01、配股利好了谁？对于中信证券自身来说，配股是当前比较合适的再融资方式。一方面可以直接从市场上获取大额融资，另一方面又不稀释控股股东的股权。配股直接面向全体老股东，那么分担到每个投资者的资金压力就会小很多。另外，中信证券大股东股权占比本来就很低，直接配股不会稀释股权。从三季度看，大股东中信有限公司持有股权比例并不高，只占15.47%。这次配资，中信证券本次配股募集大概280亿，其中，A股配股募230亿，H股配股募集50亿。如果募集资金280亿元，那么相当于直接补充了280亿元现金净资产。公司2021年底净资产2091亿，配股完成后将超2370亿，较第二名海通差距将超700亿。在券商行业，总资产无疑是最重要的考量方式，所以这次配股募资，将大幅提升中信证券的资产规模，从而进一步巩固在行业内的龙头地位。不过，配股对于投资者来说，可能会带来短期负面影响。一方面，配股之后，股价被稀释，流通中股票就会增多。另一方面，如果不参与配股的话，配股价越低，那就等于要亏越多。根据公告，配股按照每10股配售1.5股的比例向全体A股股东配售。配股价格为14.43元/股，比前一日收盘价26.36元低，相当打了55折发行。如果你手里有100股中信证券，那么这次配股你有15股的优先认购权，当然，你也可以放弃这15股的认购权，也就是弃配。对于还没有抛售持有的股民来说，如果不参与配股的话，就得承受6%的亏损，那问题来了，现在已经有一定跌幅了，中信证券还值得配吗？短期来看，今日股价大跌5%，股价周一开盘再来个情绪啥，直接就跌到配股除权后的价格24.8元附近，按照收盘价25.03计算，也就不到1%的跌幅。也就是说，今天“挨打”了还没抛售，又不想交钱配股，最多也就是再损失1%。至于后面是否看好，就得考验投资者信仰了。02、备受挑战中信证券被“黑”的最惨的莫过于它的反向指标。去年轰轰烈烈的大白马行情，中信证券在2月10日将贵州茅台目标价定为3000元，而当天贵州茅台股价大涨5.9%，这也是贵州茅台股价见顶之前的最后一根阳线。此后的故事大家也都知道了，茅台短短半年多大跌35%，股价最新1662元，市值蒸发1.1万。去年7月，宁德时代开车狂飙，一路涨不停，中信证券7月30日发布研报称，维持宁德时代买入评级，2023年目标价为754元/股。相较于29日收盘价的556.8元相比，还要高出35%。不过，很不凑巧，宁王30日盘中创下历史新高，但单日收跌1.15%，并开启了回撤之路，且期间一度跌破470元。看多目标不行，而看空目标好像又有影响力。永安期货2021年12月23日以17.97元的发行价上市，上市后连续6日涨停，至12月30日触及最高价41.69元，市值一度超600亿元。随后12月31日永安期货出现跌停调整，而中信证券2022年1月3日发布研报再踩永安期货一脚，称股价有35%下行空间。结果，“期茅”新年开盘再次闪崩。（数据来源：Choice，永安期货分时走势）不巧的是，今日永安期货盘中一度涨停，报收34.41，涨幅8.27%，看来距离中信证券的看空目标价22元，好像又远了不少。宁德、茅台等无疑都是各赛道的非常优秀的公司，而永安期货估值也是不便宜的标的，只是中信证券给出的目标价的时候，有时运气就是有点背，导致短期失去了一些准头。方向偏离目标价还不仅限于这些股民广为津津乐道的票，当然这背后固然也有宏观环境和市场炒作主线偏离等因素的剧烈变化有关，只是好巧不巧，偏偏“一哥”就遇上了。除了方向指标被黑，公司市值近来一直落后于东方财富。50家券商，总市值4万亿。券商一哥东方财富3340亿，高出中信证券104亿。要知道的是，2015大牛市时，中信历史股价最高时，市值逼近4000亿，那时东财不足500亿，市值排名20名开外，前者是后者的8倍。当然，同样的行业，持有东财和中信的心态却大相径庭。东财2010年上市至今，累计涨幅32倍，同期中信上涨不到1倍。2021年东财上涨44%，中信证券还反而下跌9%。没有对比就没有伤害，可以看出，持有中信证券的投资者表示很纳闷。03、瘦死骆驼比马大虽然市值暂时落后，但老大哥中信的基本面还是比较扎实的。就在昨天发布配股公告的前一天，中信证券还向投资者秀了一下“肌肉”。公司发布2021年度业绩快报，其中营收765亿元，同比增长40.8%，归母净利润230亿元，同比增长54.2%，而价值投资者比较关注的ROE12.01%，同比提升3.58个百分点。（数据来源：同花顺，中信证券业绩快报）公司单单四季度收入大约有188亿元，同比增长超50%，归母净利润53亿，同比增长超1倍。这么一算，公司第四季度业绩大超预期。超预期主要来自第四季度市场景气度上行、衍生品业务快速发展、投行业务、其他业务收入同比高增。此外，中信证券多项指标还是位居前列，老大哥的位置不容易撼动。2021年，中信证券IPO规模850亿，同比增长88%，位居行业第一；IPO家数68家，较去年增加27家，位居行业第一。再融资规模2539亿，同比增长40%，位居行业第一。债券承销15634亿，同比+20%，位居行业第一。资管业务三季度净收入依旧第一，增幅超过64%（数据来源：中航证券，上市券商资管业务增速）对于此次的大笔融资用途中，资本中介业务占据了绝大部分。在280亿元资金中，公司将使用不超190亿元用于资本中介业务。中介业务一般有就是融资融券、股票质押、收益互换、股权衍生品、大宗商品衍生品、做市交易、跨境交易等。（数据来源：国信证券，中信证券各业务收入结构）从公司过往的业务收入结构来看，公司业务越来越均衡。公司传统经纪业务占比逐年降低，而中介业务比列成为公司重要的业务增长点。一般来说，资本中介业务具有客户广泛、产品丰富、利差稳定、风险可控的特征，是公司近年来重点培育的业务方向。科创板做市交易试点在即，公司增长获得资金保障。有机构预测，公司配股主要用于发展资本中介业务，中介业务主要为场外衍生品业务及两融业务，均为风险相对中性且ROA较高的优质业务，配股对公司ROE将带来约0.8%的短期直接影响，但伴随配股募资投入经营后预计2023年公司ROE将升至12%。这么一看，公司“一哥”的地位还是能保住。04、结语大笔配股募资，最伤的还是股民，尽管今天已经大跌，也差不多抹掉差距，但最终除权价依旧高于收盘价，短时间还有一定调整的空间。但长远出发，“一哥”的基本面还是比较扎实，配股募来的大笔钱，毫无疑问将提升公司的资产质量与资产规模，进而打造航母级券商。至于是不是，公司管理层有先见之明，对证券市场的某些判断，趁着这个时候还能搞钱的时候，多搞一点，就不得而知了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124531242,"gmtCreate":1624771214286,"gmtModify":1703844904124,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I 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up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140365403","repostId":"1130494473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130494473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625630000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130494473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 11:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130494473","media":"长庚科技","summary":"种种迹象显示，滴滴正在加快户外广告业务的布局。\n长庚君了解到，滴滴已在部分礼橙专车上投放了车载广告屏，这是继一个月前滴滴在快车上投放车载广告屏后，再度加快该项业务的布局。(之前的报道在这里）\n6月初，","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b11f89302957ecc6711f825cf96303\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>There are signs that Didi is accelerating the layout of outdoor advertising business.</p><p>Chang Gengjun learned that Didi has put on-board advertising screens on some Licheng special cars, which is another acceleration of the layout of this business after Didi put on-board advertising screens on express trains a month ago. (Previous report here)</p><p>In early June, Chang Gengjun revealed that on some Didi Express trains operating in Beijing, drivers had received notices requesting the installation of on-board advertising screens. At that time, some drivers revealed that Didi only installed on-board advertising screens on lower-priced express trains, and Youxiang and special cars would not install large screens. Different from drivers' predictions, in fact, since mid-to-late June, Didi has asked some private car drivers to install on-board advertising screens.</p><p>A special car driver revealed that his vehicle was notified to install on-board advertising screens at the end of June. According to his understanding, 15% of Licheng special cars in Beijing market have been installed.</p><p>In the same way as the Express, drivers who are notified are not charged for installation and screens, and there is no compensation for screen damage. The difference is that if the screen is lost, the driver needs to compensate 2,500 yuan, while the express driver will compensate 1,800 yuan if the screen is lost.</p><p>Chang Gengjun found that the on-board screen installed on Licheng special car was much larger than that of the express train, and the screen had no obvious reflection phenomenon, which inferred that the cost of the on-board screen of the special car was higher. In addition, Didi's content on the car screen has been refined to a considerable degree compared to a month ago. There are not only children's songs, movies, variety shows and other programs, but also embedded LBS services such as food recommendations.</p><p>In terms of advertising, there are still only Bilibili, Youku, Sina and Didi's own promotional videos. At present, it is unclear whether these advertising contents are content replacement or direct delivery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1728a2f74e6233348dbd4e0d0e0fa9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike pure advertising broadcast platform platforms like Focus, Didi may want to improve users' acceptance of outdoor advertising in the form of content + LBS service + advertising.</p><p>In November 2019, Didi spent RMB 10 million to establish Beijing LiliOrange Media Co., Ltd. The company's main task is to produce suitable in-car content for Didi. According to public information, the production team of Grain Orange has jointly produced a variety short drama \"Dream! Jingjing\" with Tik Tok and Zhenledao Culture, which will be broadcast jointly on Didi's car platform and Tik Tok platform.</p><p>It is understood that, unlike express drivers, Didi does not force special car drivers to install on-board advertising screens, but only promotes them to drivers by suggesting installation.</p>","source":"lsy1575616094547","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill advertising become the core income when Didi puts a big screen in Li Orange Special Car?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">长庚科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 11:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b11f89302957ecc6711f825cf96303\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\"></p><p>There are signs that Didi is accelerating the layout of outdoor advertising business.</p><p>Chang Gengjun learned that Didi has put on-board advertising screens on some Licheng special cars, which is another acceleration of the layout of this business after Didi put on-board advertising screens on express trains a month ago. (Previous report here)</p><p>In early June, Chang Gengjun revealed that on some Didi Express trains operating in Beijing, drivers had received notices requesting the installation of on-board advertising screens. At that time, some drivers revealed that Didi only installed on-board advertising screens on lower-priced express trains, and Youxiang and special cars would not install large screens. Different from drivers' predictions, in fact, since mid-to-late June, Didi has asked some private car drivers to install on-board advertising screens.</p><p>A special car driver revealed that his vehicle was notified to install on-board advertising screens at the end of June. According to his understanding, 15% of Licheng special cars in Beijing market have been installed.</p><p>In the same way as the Express, drivers who are notified are not charged for installation and screens, and there is no compensation for screen damage. The difference is that if the screen is lost, the driver needs to compensate 2,500 yuan, while the express driver will compensate 1,800 yuan if the screen is lost.</p><p>Chang Gengjun found that the on-board screen installed on Licheng special car was much larger than that of the express train, and the screen had no obvious reflection phenomenon, which inferred that the cost of the on-board screen of the special car was higher. In addition, Didi's content on the car screen has been refined to a considerable degree compared to a month ago. There are not only children's songs, movies, variety shows and other programs, but also embedded LBS services such as food recommendations.</p><p>In terms of advertising, there are still only Bilibili, Youku, Sina and Didi's own promotional videos. At present, it is unclear whether these advertising contents are content replacement or direct delivery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1728a2f74e6233348dbd4e0d0e0fa9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike pure advertising broadcast platform platforms like Focus, Didi may want to improve users' acceptance of outdoor advertising in the form of content + LBS service + advertising.</p><p>In November 2019, Didi spent RMB 10 million to establish Beijing LiliOrange Media Co., Ltd. The company's main task is to produce suitable in-car content for Didi. According to public information, the production team of Grain Orange has jointly produced a variety short drama \"Dream! Jingjing\" with Tik Tok and Zhenledao Culture, which will be broadcast jointly on Didi's car platform and Tik Tok platform.</p><p>It is understood that, unlike express drivers, Didi does not force special car drivers to install on-board advertising screens, but only promotes them to drivers by suggesting installation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/By1Icoz6Fhvf4ok-fxNpDw\">长庚科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65bfcb358a6800fc2fe39bc0b3af8fc","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/By1Icoz6Fhvf4ok-fxNpDw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130494473","content_text":"种种迹象显示，滴滴正在加快户外广告业务的布局。\n长庚君了解到，滴滴已在部分礼橙专车上投放了车载广告屏，这是继一个月前滴滴在快车上投放车载广告屏后，再度加快该项业务的布局。(之前的报道在这里）\n6月初，长庚君披露了在北京运营的部分滴滴快车上，司机收到过要求安装车载广告屏的通知。当时曾有司机透露，滴滴仅在价格较低的快车上安装车载广告屏，优享和专车将不会安装大屏。与司机们预测不同的是，事实上从6月中下旬开始，滴滴就已经要求部分专车司机安装车载广告屏。\n一位专车司机透露，他的车辆是在6月底收到通知安装车载广告屏，据他了解目前北京市场已有15%的礼橙专车完成了安装。\n与快车相同的是，收到通知的司机无需缴纳安装和屏幕费用，屏幕损坏也无需赔偿。不同的是屏幕如果丢失，司机需要赔偿2500元，而快车司机如果屏幕发生丢失，赔偿金额为1800元。\n长庚君发现，礼橙专车上安装的车载屏比快车的屏幕大很多，且屏幕没有明显反光现象，由此推断专车的车载屏成本更高。此外，与一个月前相比，滴滴在车载屏上的内容已经得到相当程度的完善。不仅有儿歌、影视、综艺等节目，还内嵌了如美食推荐等LBS服务。\n在广告方面、依然只有B站、优酷、新浪和滴滴自己的宣传片，目前尚不清楚是这些广告内容是内容置换还是直接投放。\n\n与分众这样的纯广告播放平台平台不同，滴滴可能希望以内容+LBS服务+广告的形式来提高用户对户外广告的接受程度。\n滴滴在2019年11月斥资1000万元人民币成立北京粒粒橙传媒有限公司。该公司主要任务就是为滴滴制作适合的车载内容。公开信息显示，粒粒橙的制作团队已经与抖音、真乐道文化联合制作综艺短剧《做梦吧!晶晶》，该剧会在滴滴的车载平台与抖音平台共同播出。\n据了解，与快车司机不同的是，滴滴并未强制要求专车司机安装车载广告屏，只是以建议安装的方式向司机推广。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148581996,"gmtCreate":1625988206215,"gmtModify":1703751705341,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148581996","repostId":"1114379787","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158027417,"gmtCreate":1625115259539,"gmtModify":1703736473260,"author":{"id":"3576956646613612","authorId":"3576956646613612","name":"AceSU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cada8c68090b1acf0108ea47608d34dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576956646613612","idStr":"3576956646613612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it time to buy?","listText":"Is it time to buy?","text":"Is it time to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82844eb2487b10432df1fb03f81eb434","width":"1080","height":"2800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158027417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}