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2021-06-05

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自從A股眉飛色舞以來，股市相對活躍，與去年不同的是，今年A股雖然指數漲幅不大（慢牛），但低價個股活躍度很高。而歷來如果A股有牛市，低價股通常不會缺席（漲幅要看有沒有消息配合），疊加最近大宗商品的通脹預期，資源類的低價股大家都可以關注。 而美股指進入高位區間，漲幅會受到限制，因此擔心繫統性風險的話，做空美股指會比較合適，從而形成了一個宏觀的對衝組合。 （連中石油都能大漲50%，其它個股也就不應該太悲觀了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 對於堅定持有美股的朋友來說，美股指有風險，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式來對衝一定的風險。美股指近期已接近60日均線附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水嶺，若有效跌穿，可能會引起較大調整。（大夥別掉以輕心，美股指若調整10%，很多美股跌幅比這個大得多） 做空美股指的止損，可分批進入，一半以20日均線來止損，另一半可以新高作爲止損。 三、多道指/標普，空納指 納指波動性比道指強，跌下來幅度也比道指較多。當前納指道指比價仍處於歷史高位，中長期來說該價位介入仍不算吃虧，但該組合的平倉時機不容易把握，除非納指繫個股出現系統性利空，不然也只能短期投機一把，還不如策略一來的穩妥。 四、關於其它策略 雖然美股指看空，作爲對衝手段來說，是一","text":"上週給大家講過，A股和美股進入到強弱反轉特徵，美股指弱勢，但A股個股表現強勢。其實美國有啥利空消息，已經不需要我多說了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美聯儲年底的Taper，美國債務上限，任何一個都可以是下跌的理由，畢竟漲多了出現調整是正常的。 調整幅度有多大很難確定，畢竟沒有黑天鵝事件，更多的是利空事件的兌現。但最少上漲速度會大大下降，對付這種市場最好的辦法，還是對衝。 （標普近期頂部在4549，仍符合區間特點） 所以這裏還是給大家分享幾個美股的對衝策略，既有宏觀的，也有微觀的，看對大家是否合適。 一、買A股國企股價便宜的個股、空美股指 自從A股眉飛色舞以來，股市相對活躍，與去年不同的是，今年A股雖然指數漲幅不大（慢牛），但低價個股活躍度很高。而歷來如果A股有牛市，低價股通常不會缺席（漲幅要看有沒有消息配合），疊加最近大宗商品的通脹預期，資源類的低價股大家都可以關注。 而美股指進入高位區間，漲幅會受到限制，因此擔心繫統性風險的話，做空美股指會比較合適，從而形成了一個宏觀的對衝組合。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3586581506697881\">@kct360</a>hello","text":"@kct360hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805296028","repostId":"806057778","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":806057778,"gmtCreate":1627619555494,"gmtModify":1703493513173,"author":{"id":"3568564821331838","authorId":"3568564821331838","name":"一只踩不到热点的鲸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58be566a2ef815103329d0966478cf7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568564821331838","authorIdStr":"3568564821331838"},"themes":[],"title":"關於中概股的一點看法","htmlText":"今天主要針對最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一，關於這次事件我也研究了很多，其中我很認同的一種看法是此次事件是針對“第一次分配”的改革。這個話題不好展開說，不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理論”。 中國歷史上很多朝代走到終點都是因爲貧富差距過大，不同階層的人口比例失衡。所以現在提早做這樣的事情也不難理解。 但這樣的改革必然會影響公司未來的利潤率，並且這個影響的時間還沒有定數。因此最近情緒雖然有所平復，但長期預期肯定是不如以往。我認爲至少未來半年到一年內會是這樣，所以倉位上還是應該謹慎。 第二，左側逆勢加倉一定一定要重視資金管理，不要加倉加到最後爆倉了。 最近我瞭解到很多人都爆倉了。先是重倉在線教育的，再是重倉中概股的。在我看來，他們的倉位管理本身是致命的。 在一個長期投資組合中，持有8-10只股票，平均每隻倉位在10%左右是我個人認爲最舒適的配置。特別看好的標的，倉位也最好不要超過20%。這樣的話，即使一隻股票發生腰斬，總資金的損失也只在5%-10%之間。整體影響不會很大。 數據表明，如果賬戶回撤超過20%，挽回損失會開始變得困難。賬戶回撤超過40%，就很難做到長期穩定了。而長期穩定是一個投資者能夠在股市中生存下去的基礎。 我曾經講過財富增長曲線。 正向的財富增長曲線應該是長時間微小震盪，幾乎沒什麼變化。最終偶爾一兩次的劇烈增長使財富得到突破。 而不應該是長期增長最後直線墜落，也不應該是像心電圖一樣大起大落。 正向的財富增長曲線： 錯誤的財富增長曲線： 一些人覺得看準了就是應該滿倉幹。但問題是你如何來定義這個“看準”？是不是買了賺了就叫做看準，虧了就叫做沒看準？並且以自己的認知和專業程度，這個“看準”又有多少水分呢？這可能是一個值得思考的問題。 除了倉位管理，我們還要注意投資組合的單一性風險。 即不要全買同一板塊，或同一類型的股票。比如全買中概股，或全買科技股。因爲這樣即","listText":"今天主要針對最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一，關於這次事件我也研究了很多，其中我很認同的一種看法是此次事件是針對“第一次分配”的改革。這個話題不好展開說，不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理論”。 中國歷史上很多朝代走到終點都是因爲貧富差距過大，不同階層的人口比例失衡。所以現在提早做這樣的事情也不難理解。 但這樣的改革必然會影響公司未來的利潤率，並且這個影響的時間還沒有定數。因此最近情緒雖然有所平復，但長期預期肯定是不如以往。我認爲至少未來半年到一年內會是這樣，所以倉位上還是應該謹慎。 第二，左側逆勢加倉一定一定要重視資金管理，不要加倉加到最後爆倉了。 最近我瞭解到很多人都爆倉了。先是重倉在線教育的，再是重倉中概股的。在我看來，他們的倉位管理本身是致命的。 在一個長期投資組合中，持有8-10只股票，平均每隻倉位在10%左右是我個人認爲最舒適的配置。特別看好的標的，倉位也最好不要超過20%。這樣的話，即使一隻股票發生腰斬，總資金的損失也只在5%-10%之間。整體影響不會很大。 數據表明，如果賬戶回撤超過20%，挽回損失會開始變得困難。賬戶回撤超過40%，就很難做到長期穩定了。而長期穩定是一個投資者能夠在股市中生存下去的基礎。 我曾經講過財富增長曲線。 正向的財富增長曲線應該是長時間微小震盪，幾乎沒什麼變化。最終偶爾一兩次的劇烈增長使財富得到突破。 而不應該是長期增長最後直線墜落，也不應該是像心電圖一樣大起大落。 正向的財富增長曲線： 錯誤的財富增長曲線： 一些人覺得看準了就是應該滿倉幹。但問題是你如何來定義這個“看準”？是不是買了賺了就叫做看準，虧了就叫做沒看準？並且以自己的認知和專業程度，這個“看準”又有多少水分呢？這可能是一個值得思考的問題。 除了倉位管理，我們還要注意投資組合的單一性風險。 即不要全買同一板塊，或同一類型的股票。比如全買中概股，或全買科技股。因爲這樣即","text":"今天主要針對最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一，關於這次事件我也研究了很多，其中我很認同的一種看法是此次事件是針對“第一次分配”的改革。這個話題不好展開說，不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理論”。 中國歷史上很多朝代走到終點都是因爲貧富差距過大，不同階層的人口比例失衡。所以現在提早做這樣的事情也不難理解。 但這樣的改革必然會影響公司未來的利潤率，並且這個影響的時間還沒有定數。因此最近情緒雖然有所平復，但長期預期肯定是不如以往。我認爲至少未來半年到一年內會是這樣，所以倉位上還是應該謹慎。 第二，左側逆勢加倉一定一定要重視資金管理，不要加倉加到最後爆倉了。 最近我瞭解到很多人都爆倉了。先是重倉在線教育的，再是重倉中概股的。在我看來，他們的倉位管理本身是致命的。 在一個長期投資組合中，持有8-10只股票，平均每隻倉位在10%左右是我個人認爲最舒適的配置。特別看好的標的，倉位也最好不要超過20%。這樣的話，即使一隻股票發生腰斬，總資金的損失也只在5%-10%之間。整體影響不會很大。 數據表明，如果賬戶回撤超過20%，挽回損失會開始變得困難。賬戶回撤超過40%，就很難做到長期穩定了。而長期穩定是一個投資者能夠在股市中生存下去的基礎。 我曾經講過財富增長曲線。 正向的財富增長曲線應該是長時間微小震盪，幾乎沒什麼變化。最終偶爾一兩次的劇烈增長使財富得到突破。 而不應該是長期增長最後直線墜落，也不應該是像心電圖一樣大起大落。 正向的財富增長曲線： 錯誤的財富增長曲線： 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