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2021-09-09

Omg

Multiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!

2021-08-23

Hi

A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?

2021-08-13

Like

What will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!

2021-07-31

Good

What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment

2021-09-23

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Why did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?

2021-08-18

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Is the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced

2021-08-16

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2021-08-03

Really?

The bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is coming; what are the wins and losses for various industries?

2021-07-19

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2021-06-30

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ya","listText":",0 ya","text":",0 ya","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/560827356808184","repostId":"2588725924","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588725924","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1764583136,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2588725924?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-01 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UOB Kay Hian Downgrades XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera to Hold from Buy; Price Target is IDR3,100","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588725924","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (IDX:EXCL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 2,867.06 Indonesian rupiah, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(MT Newswires covers equity, commo","content":"<html><body><p> XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (IDX:EXCL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 2,867.06 Indonesian rupiah, according to analysts polled by FactSet.</p><p>(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)</p></body></html>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UOB Kay Hian Downgrades XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera to Hold from Buy; Price Target is IDR3,100</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUOB Kay Hian Downgrades XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera to Hold from Buy; Price Target is IDR3,100\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-01 17:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p> XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (IDX:EXCL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 2,867.06 Indonesian rupiah, according to analysts polled by FactSet.</p><p>(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588725924","content_text":"XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (IDX:EXCL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 2,867.06 Indonesian rupiah, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863524636,"gmtCreate":1632407213825,"gmtModify":1676530775482,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863524636","repostId":"2169565516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169565516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632364656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169565516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Due to the account suspension and fund freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been a trending topic this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has shrouded the entire cross-border e-commerce industry has always been that today's big seller is shutting down, and tomorrow's big seller is laying off employees. Especially with some We Media traffic being devoured, the industry doesn't seem to have seen any positive developments.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores Amazon has actually blocked. Initially, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000 stores, but since Amazon has remained silent about it, this number has gradually become accepted as fact.</p><p>Even at the event held last Friday where Amazon opened its world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou, it remained tight-lipped about the number of stores closed, with no plans to disclose them publicly, hoping that the cold snap would pass.</p><p>The invited media outlets certainly wouldn't let this rare opportunity pass them by, so they turned a Q&A session for the settlement event into a press conference for the store closures. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, admitted, \"Today's announcement was originally for the training center to be located in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media outlets to pay attention to the account being banned, so we made our first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has shut down the brand sales permissions of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some large sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as engaged in numerous other violations. Over the past period, Amazon has issued multiple warnings to these sellers, given them multiple opportunities to appeal, and even reinstated some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers have continued to violate regulations, so we have decided to terminate our partnership with these sellers this time.\"</p><p>In other words, the banned sellers committed serious violations, and Amazon gave them many opportunities but repeatedly failed to correct them, so they were forced to take the final step.</p><p>“Amazon only released data for the first five months; it didn’t disclose data for June, July, and August. Many stores were also affected during those three months. So the final number must be much higher than that,” a senior industry insider told.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the losses are indeed considerable. For example in the past<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">South China City</a>The \"Four Young Masters Have a Tree\" had 340 shops shut down and 130 million yuan in funds frozen. This directly led to the departure of half of the employees, a decline in revenue by half, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another major online retailer, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, freezing 41.43 million yuan in funds.</p><p>So why is Amazon's store closures so strong and intense this time? What are the things behind this that we truly reflect on?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. Amazon regularly conducts account sweeps twice a year. One is around Prime Day in July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for this major promotional event, which is from the end of April to the beginning of May. The other occurred two months before Christmas, in mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because they saw this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, blocking a few has absolutely no impact. \"Actually, as long as the number of stores that close doesn't exceed a certain percentage, even the owner doesn't need to know about it,\" a seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry boom, all sellers are more optimistic this year, completely unaware of the real risks behind this. In fact, Amazon was already using algorithms three years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>To detect whether product reviews are genuine or fake. Many self-operated listings (product pages) have also been blocked. For example, a seller in Shenzhen reduced his listings from 17,000 to 1,000, and his WeChat Moments were filled with lamentations. Fortunately, due to the serious errors, Amazon did not continue the large-scale shutdown.</p><p>But the technology has been advancing until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging based on store logic, but on brand dimension logic. If the algorithm identifies a certain percentage of problematic brands, all of its stores will be shut down. That's why a large number of store groups have been shut down.</p><p>36Kr also noted that Amazon's new CEO, Andy Jassy, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, places greater emphasis on protecting the authenticity of its platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start using white hat tactics. Amazon also encourages on-site review invitations, inviting users to leave reviews through in-site messages. If the product and user experience are bad, the reviews will definitely be negative. So this is very beneficial to the entire ecosystem. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money cannot succeed,\" the aforementioned seller said.</p><p>supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of its algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of Tmall and Taobao in China. The difference is that Amazon treats all sellers on its platform as suppliers, while itself is essentially a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all of a seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>They are all Amazon suppliers.</p><p>“You could understand it this way: Tmall is like a shopping mall, while Amazon is like a department store. So this foreshadows some of Amazon’s penalty mechanisms. If a Tmall seller violates regulations, will the platform touch your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales volume, while Tmall talks about GMV,” Zhou Jun, Vice President of Sales at Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>Amazon is different; once it receives payment from a customer, it is responsible for the user. If it is discovered that the seller may have harmed the customer, the funds will be frozen first to deal with the possibility of joint liability due to lawsuits later.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai, who stated that Amazon's fund freeze period is 90 days, mainly used to cover the seller's refund and return compensation fees for past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there are no violations, you can apply to retrieve it.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is not actually about selling goods yourself, but about the seller supplying goods to the platform, and the platform then helping to sell the goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial body and has no authority to freeze funds and goods. However, because of Amazon's supplier logic, anyone who violates the supplier rules must be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"From a value perspective, fake orders are serious acts of lying and fraud, and we all deeply abhor them. However, we cannot simply stigmatize Chinese sellers; everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon did wrong was that it at least had a hearing to give sellers a chance to defend themselves. For sellers, the legitimate rights they deserve must be fought for.\" If this passes quietly, the future will probably be a nightmare. Zhou Jun said.</p><p>Regarding the appeals process, Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, stated that if a seller's account is suspended due to violations, Amazon will provide the seller with an opportunity to appeal. These accounts will resume normal operations as long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was incorrect, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid further violations.</p><p>However, according to information obtained by 36Kr from several sellers, the probability of successfully appealing to Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, they are not very accurate in grasping the various changes in Amazon's rules, the main problem being that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where is the way out?</p><p>The cross-border e-commerce industry as a whole is still in its early stages and cannot even be considered an industry. 36Kr found from its visits to several investment institutions that investors' optimistic assessment of the industry remained unaffected. What we've been looking for is which companies can weather cycles and have the consciousness and ability to create a new brand.</p><p>Building a brand is difficult; it requires a company's comprehensive capabilities in understanding user needs, marketing strategies, and supply chain influence. However, it is precisely because of the high barriers to entry that it is even more scarce. especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein has excited all investors, who look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>Looking ahead, the first thing the industry needs to do is restructure its mindset. The past distribution path has become a dead end; the sooner you transform, the more opportunities you will have. A major seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover advantage because it was two years late in transforming its brand. Only after chasing after them aggressively did they realize that the probability of success was extremely slim. This is also a reliance on the dividend path left over from the early stages of the industry, because it was easier to make quick money in the past, so people are less willing to take a path that is accumulated, difficult but correct.</p><p>Then, find a niche vertical category to cultivate in depth. If the previous approach was rough and rugged, now it is definitely necessary to carry out refined operations. Moreover, the requirements for product categories have become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and crude approach work? Because consumers are becoming more aware and have higher demands for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies and encouraging brands to be more determined. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, we need to introduce some highly qualified technical personnel. The pandemic marked the beginning of the rise of cross-border e-commerce, accelerated account bans, and the direct impact was that more entrepreneurs entered the industry across borders. Industries that seem to have no barriers to entry are actually quite barrier-free, especially when it comes to the practical stage. Perhaps even now, some pure business logic can still be understood, but the advantage of creating competitive barriers requires the participation of more highly qualified talents. Especially on the technical side, there is still a lot of room for improvement for current industry practitioners.</p><p>Finally, be good at leveraging the power of capital. For a long time, cross-border e-commerce has been easy to make money from, and there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, their desire for capital is relatively average. However, if we analyze Anker Innovation and Shein, we will clearly find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market is especially the latter's high growth. We cannot do without the help of capital. Capital is neither good nor bad; the core lies in how to utilize it. Capital providing funding only plays a fundamental role; greater empowerment will greatly help us grow stronger and bigger.</p><p>Looking at any industry development cycle, large-scale capital inflows occur after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investments were made by large companies, highly educated individuals with rich industry experience, and these innovative forces, driven by technology, began to forge new paths and restructure the business landscape. In other words, if you don't accept investment, capital will invest in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Due to the account suspension and fund freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been a trending topic this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has shrouded the entire cross-border e-commerce industry has always been that today's big seller is shutting down, and tomorrow's big seller is laying off employees. Especially with some We Media traffic being devoured, the industry doesn't seem to have seen any positive developments.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores Amazon has actually blocked. Initially, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000 stores, but since Amazon has remained silent about it, this number has gradually become accepted as fact.</p><p>Even at the event held last Friday where Amazon opened its world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou, it remained tight-lipped about the number of stores closed, with no plans to disclose them publicly, hoping that the cold snap would pass.</p><p>The invited media outlets certainly wouldn't let this rare opportunity pass them by, so they turned a Q&A session for the settlement event into a press conference for the store closures. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, admitted, \"Today's announcement was originally for the training center to be located in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media outlets to pay attention to the account being banned, so we made our first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has shut down the brand sales permissions of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some large sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as engaged in numerous other violations. Over the past period, Amazon has issued multiple warnings to these sellers, given them multiple opportunities to appeal, and even reinstated some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers have continued to violate regulations, so we have decided to terminate our partnership with these sellers this time.\"</p><p>In other words, the banned sellers committed serious violations, and Amazon gave them many opportunities but repeatedly failed to correct them, so they were forced to take the final step.</p><p>“Amazon only released data for the first five months; it didn’t disclose data for June, July, and August. Many stores were also affected during those three months. So the final number must be much higher than that,” a senior industry insider told.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the losses are indeed considerable. For example in the past<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">South China City</a>The \"Four Young Masters Have a Tree\" had 340 shops shut down and 130 million yuan in funds frozen. This directly led to the departure of half of the employees, a decline in revenue by half, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another major online retailer, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, freezing 41.43 million yuan in funds.</p><p>So why is Amazon's store closures so strong and intense this time? What are the things behind this that we truly reflect on?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. Amazon regularly conducts account sweeps twice a year. One is around Prime Day in July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for this major promotional event, which is from the end of April to the beginning of May. The other occurred two months before Christmas, in mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because they saw this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, blocking a few has absolutely no impact. \"Actually, as long as the number of stores that close doesn't exceed a certain percentage, even the owner doesn't need to know about it,\" a seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry boom, all sellers are more optimistic this year, completely unaware of the real risks behind this. In fact, Amazon was already using algorithms three years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>To detect whether product reviews are genuine or fake. Many self-operated listings (product pages) have also been blocked. For example, a seller in Shenzhen reduced his listings from 17,000 to 1,000, and his WeChat Moments were filled with lamentations. Fortunately, due to the serious errors, Amazon did not continue the large-scale shutdown.</p><p>But the technology has been advancing until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging based on store logic, but on brand dimension logic. If the algorithm identifies a certain percentage of problematic brands, all of its stores will be shut down. That's why a large number of store groups have been shut down.</p><p>36Kr also noted that Amazon's new CEO, Andy Jassy, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, places greater emphasis on protecting the authenticity of its platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start using white hat tactics. Amazon also encourages on-site review invitations, inviting users to leave reviews through in-site messages. If the product and user experience are bad, the reviews will definitely be negative. So this is very beneficial to the entire ecosystem. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money cannot succeed,\" the aforementioned seller said.</p><p>supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of its algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of Tmall and Taobao in China. The difference is that Amazon treats all sellers on its platform as suppliers, while itself is essentially a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all of a seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>They are all Amazon suppliers.</p><p>“You could understand it this way: Tmall is like a shopping mall, while Amazon is like a department store. So this foreshadows some of Amazon’s penalty mechanisms. If a Tmall seller violates regulations, will the platform touch your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales volume, while Tmall talks about GMV,” Zhou Jun, Vice President of Sales at Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>Amazon is different; once it receives payment from a customer, it is responsible for the user. If it is discovered that the seller may have harmed the customer, the funds will be frozen first to deal with the possibility of joint liability due to lawsuits later.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai, who stated that Amazon's fund freeze period is 90 days, mainly used to cover the seller's refund and return compensation fees for past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there are no violations, you can apply to retrieve it.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is not actually about selling goods yourself, but about the seller supplying goods to the platform, and the platform then helping to sell the goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial body and has no authority to freeze funds and goods. However, because of Amazon's supplier logic, anyone who violates the supplier rules must be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"From a value perspective, fake orders are serious acts of lying and fraud, and we all deeply abhor them. However, we cannot simply stigmatize Chinese sellers; everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon did wrong was that it at least had a hearing to give sellers a chance to defend themselves. For sellers, the legitimate rights they deserve must be fought for.\" If this passes quietly, the future will probably be a nightmare. Zhou Jun said.</p><p>Regarding the appeals process, Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, stated that if a seller's account is suspended due to violations, Amazon will provide the seller with an opportunity to appeal. These accounts will resume normal operations as long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was incorrect, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid further violations.</p><p>However, according to information obtained by 36Kr from several sellers, the probability of successfully appealing to Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, they are not very accurate in grasping the various changes in Amazon's rules, the main problem being that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where is the way out?</p><p>The cross-border e-commerce industry as a whole is still in its early stages and cannot even be considered an industry. 36Kr found from its visits to several investment institutions that investors' optimistic assessment of the industry remained unaffected. What we've been looking for is which companies can weather cycles and have the consciousness and ability to create a new brand.</p><p>Building a brand is difficult; it requires a company's comprehensive capabilities in understanding user needs, marketing strategies, and supply chain influence. However, it is precisely because of the high barriers to entry that it is even more scarce. especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein has excited all investors, who look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>Looking ahead, the first thing the industry needs to do is restructure its mindset. The past distribution path has become a dead end; the sooner you transform, the more opportunities you will have. A major seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover advantage because it was two years late in transforming its brand. Only after chasing after them aggressively did they realize that the probability of success was extremely slim. This is also a reliance on the dividend path left over from the early stages of the industry, because it was easier to make quick money in the past, so people are less willing to take a path that is accumulated, difficult but correct.</p><p>Then, find a niche vertical category to cultivate in depth. If the previous approach was rough and rugged, now it is definitely necessary to carry out refined operations. Moreover, the requirements for product categories have become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and crude approach work? Because consumers are becoming more aware and have higher demands for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies and encouraging brands to be more determined. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, we need to introduce some highly qualified technical personnel. The pandemic marked the beginning of the rise of cross-border e-commerce, accelerated account bans, and the direct impact was that more entrepreneurs entered the industry across borders. Industries that seem to have no barriers to entry are actually quite barrier-free, especially when it comes to the practical stage. Perhaps even now, some pure business logic can still be understood, but the advantage of creating competitive barriers requires the participation of more highly qualified talents. Especially on the technical side, there is still a lot of room for improvement for current industry practitioners.</p><p>Finally, be good at leveraging the power of capital. For a long time, cross-border e-commerce has been easy to make money from, and there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, their desire for capital is relatively average. However, if we analyze Anker Innovation and Shein, we will clearly find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market is especially the latter's high growth. We cannot do without the help of capital. Capital is neither good nor bad; the core lies in how to utilize it. Capital providing funding only plays a fundamental role; greater empowerment will greatly help us grow stronger and bigger.</p><p>Looking at any industry development cycle, large-scale capital inflows occur after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investments were made by large companies, highly educated individuals with rich industry experience, and these innovative forces, driven by technology, began to forge new paths and restructure the business landscape. In other words, if you don't accept investment, capital will invest in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860401476,"gmtCreate":1632193536795,"gmtModify":1676530722519,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/860401476","repostId":"2169684551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881911500,"gmtCreate":1631284760100,"gmtModify":1676530520376,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881911500","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883091778,"gmtCreate":1631186053494,"gmtModify":1676530490511,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883091778","repostId":"2166195813","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166195813","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"新型财经科技信息服务提供商，专注TMT。技术改变商业，商业改变世界，我们纪录这个过程，并聚集这些改变世界的人。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"TMTPost","id":"1065587721","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c"},"pubTimestamp":1631170956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166195813?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 15:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166195813","media":"TMTPost","summary":"这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>CEO Jensen Huang (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I am about to showcase incorporates new GPU-accelerated computing capabilities and features the Mellanox high-performance network. The product that completes our last piece of the puzzle is the world's first CPU processor designed specifically for TB-class data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a quote from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, unexpectedly, it wasn't until Nvidia's self-disclosure on August 12 that people learned that the speech, which was less than 100 words and 14 seconds long, did not feature Jensen Huang himself on camera, but rather a synthetic \"digital avatar,\" a \"virtual Jensen Huang\" image created using Nvidia's GPU processor and the Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This event sparked heated discussions about technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, the metaverse, and AI face swapping, and also brought Nvidia, the American chip giant, out of the semiconductor industry and into the public eye.</p><p>Since its founding in 1993, under the leadership of Jensen Huang, NVIDIA has successfully created and led the GPU (graphics processor) chip category, with products covering the entire PC device GPU to server GPU market. In the past five years,<b>Nvidia's market capitalization grew from $31 billion to $505 billion, making it the world's seventh-largest semiconductor supplier.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star company in the (AI) chip field.</b></p><p>At the same time, Nvidia's market capitalization exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Subsequently, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in the GPU and AI chip sectors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>Companies such as Muxi Integrated Circuits are all clustered in the general-purpose processor sector.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone transformation. Due to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>The impact of the US \"Entity List\" and the chain reaction triggered by the global chip shortage have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to purchase US semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" has become increasingly strong.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the further upgrade of the U.S. Export Control Regulations and the continuous adjustment of the members of the Entity List, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" its chip supply to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although Inspur announced on July 3 that Intel had resumed supplying it, the temporary supply disruption crisis between one company, the world's largest supplier of x86 architecture chips for PCs and cloud services, and the other, China's largest server manufacturer, serves as a wake-up call for the entire Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industry.<b>As the demand for computing power grows stronger, China needs to mass-produce domestically produced GPUs and server chips that are fully independent and controllable.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>Furthermore, as a major global chip seller, China has not produced a chip giant like Nvidia, and the large market has not produced a large company to match it.</b>According to statistics from IC Insight, the global semiconductor market size was US$395.7 billion in 2020, of which the Chinese mainland market size was US$43.4 billion, making it the world's largest market and accounting for 36.24% of the global market. However, the total output value of semiconductor companies headquartered in mainland China in 2020 was only US$8.3 billion, accounting for only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who can get a piece of this huge pie? When will the semiconductor industry be able to create a \"Chinese Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missing the Golden Age</h2>Graphics processing units (GPUs), also known as display chips or vision processors, were originally proposed by NVIDIA in 1999. They are microprocessors specifically designed to run graphics operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles, and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPUs are gradually explored, the application fields of GPUs have expanded from graphics processing to high-performance computing, gradually becoming the most mature and widely used general-purpose chips in AI computing. In June 2020, NVIDIA launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on the Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC GPUs, server GPUs, and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures: independent graphics cards composed of dedicated circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs packaged with other chips or modules into highly integrated SoCs—which are used in multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics, and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Following the acquisition of Canadian GPU manufacturer ATI in 2006, the global GPU market is currently dominated by the \"US chip giants\"—Intel, AMD, and Nvidia—in the PC and server GPU field. Intel has a clear advantage in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD dominate the standalone GPU market.</b></p><p>According to data from Research firm Jon Peddie Research, in the first quarter of 2021, Intel ranked first in the global PC GPU market with a 68% market share, followed by AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, with the three companies holding a combined share of nearly 100%. In the global discrete GPU market, Nvidia is the leader in the data center GPU market, holding an 81% market share, while AMD ranks second with a 19% share.</p><p>In 2019 alone, NVIDIA captured 90% of the Chinese AI training chip market with products such as the V100 series, firmly grasping the huge AI chip sales market in China.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia has been able to maintain its position as the \"chip leader\" is its \"lightweight design model\". NVIDIA does not manufacture or package chips; it entrusts...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>With the OEM manufacturing completed, the company enjoys the benefits of advanced process technologies such as 7nm. According to financial reports, Nvidia's revenue increased by 233% between 2016 and 2021, and its operating profit doubled to $4.5 billion. In the three months ending in May this year, sales surged 84% year-on-year, while gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design a long time ago, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Starting in the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technology and production lines. However, the result was an a vicious circle of \"generation after generation of imports and generation after generation of backwardness\". Coupled with the negative impact of the \"Hanxin No. 1\" fake chip incident on society, which caused China's \"independent processors\" to suffer a serious setback, and China's active promotion of WTO globalization, the company missed the golden age of the global semiconductor industry development, and downstream companies could only \"buy instead of manufacturing\".</b></p><p>It wasn't until 2000, marked by the issuance of the national \"Document No. 18,\" that China's semiconductor industry gradually formed an industrial organizational structure characterized by the separation of design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, and introduced...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>A number of chip manufacturing (Foundry) companies, represented by [company name], have been built and put into production in China, resulting in a rapid improvement in their technological level.</p><p>Currently, companies such as Jingjia Microelectronics, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambricon, and Muxi Integrated Circuits are all clustered in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In 2014, Jingjia Microelectronics (300474.SH), which started with military aircraft graphics display control modules, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400. Subsequently, in 2018, it successfully developed the second-generation GPU chip JM7200 with a 28nm process. Jingjia Microelectronics has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPUs, becoming one of the few companies in the world and the only one in China to achieve commercial mass production of independent GPUs.</p><p>In addition to Jingjia Microelectronics, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released China's first GPGPU (General Purpose Graphics Processor) manufactured using a 7-nanometer process, which removed 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU and was created solely to handle artificial intelligence (AI) applications. In June of this year, Suiyuan Technology released the \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip, China's largest AI computing chip to date, the \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Suisi 2.0, and the \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the JM7200 chip developed by Jingjia Microelectronics only has performance equivalent to that of the 2012 NVIDIA GTX 640, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip only managed to match NVIDIA's A100, with two of the six Benchmark tests significantly surpassing the NVIDIA A100's performance. (See the previous article on Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology Releases China's Largest AI Computing Chip, Accelerating the Implementation of Three Major Business Directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The main reason behind this is that China's semiconductor industry started late, with high technological thresholds, high cost elasticity, and high industrial concentration. As a result, the overall R&D investment, technology, and talent of Chinese GPU chip companies lag behind those of foreign countries. As a result, they still lag behind chip giants in terms of product performance and technology, and downstream companies still find it difficult to escape the situation of the \"Big Three American chip companies\".</b></p><p>Taking R&D investment as an example, from 2011 to 2020, Jingjia Microelectronics' total R&D investment was RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 alone reached US$3.924 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB 25.323 billion. Over the ten years, Nvidia's total investment exceeded RMB 120 billion, a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talent, as of the first half of 2021, NVIDIA had as many as 18,975 employees, while Jingjia Microelectronics had a total of 1,174 employees, far fewer than AMD's 2,000 employees at its Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"The AI chip and GPU chip market is quite unique. Unlike traditional dedicated processors, the technology is very complex. It requires a large amount of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms in order to be put into market use.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Xinsi Technology</a>In an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year, Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said that if a company wants to make its first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two to three years.</p><p>In his view, the chip and semiconductor industry itself is an industry with large investment, long cycles, and slow returns. The complete localization of technology requires long-term and continuous capital, talent, and technological accumulation, which is difficult to handle with the Internet mindset of \"throwing money and seeing returns\".</p><p><b>In addition, the hardware and software ecosystem combined with CUDA technology is another important reason why domestic chip companies have formed a significant gap with Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, NVIDIA released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which includes a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone with a laptop equipped with an NVIDIA GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming computations, such as deep learning and AI algorithms, and develop related software. For more than a decade, NVIDIA has been relentlessly promoting CUDA, enabling more government and enterprise-level software to be developed based on the platform, combining NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware with CUDA software to efficiently achieve application implementation.</p><p>In contrast, there is currently no series of platforms in China that are deeply integrated with CUDA and NVIDIA hardware, indicating a significant gap in technological barriers. Most domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Tianshu Zhixin and Denglin, have adopted a strategy of being compatible with the CUDA open-source framework, preparing to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, CUDA-compatible domestic GPUs are easier to develop. After all, writing operators is a labor-intensive industry, and user migration requires 100% migration, with the entire code set running on your chip. If the amount of code is small, fewer operators are needed, making the difficulty relatively low. However, in the long run, we still need to move away from compatibility thinking and develop our own core technologies,\" said an industry insider. He added that choosing compatibility mainly ensures that existing software remains usable, and in the future, they will continuously improve their own platforms to better match their own chips, thereby attracting developers to migrate.</p><p>However, some companies choose not to be compatible with the CUDA ecosystem. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which makes AI training and inference chips at the same time, comprehensively upgraded its \"Yusuan TopsRider\" software platform and the new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to gain ecosystem dominance.</p><p><b>In summary, these domestic chip companies that compete with Nvidia are still in the early stages of development. Their industrialization and marketization capabilities for AI chip technology are relatively weak, and they have not yet generated actual large-scale use. They still have a long way to go before they can surpass or replace \"China's Nvidia\".</b></p><p>In an interview with Titanium Media App, Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said that although China's demand side is still the world's largest single market with one of the highest growth rates and the \"demand side\" is still very strong, there is still a considerable gap in both design and manufacturing of high-end chips, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the quality of the supply side depends not only on a single company, but on the capabilities of the entire industry chain. It is unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensively leading enterprise in the short term.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a dedicated computing architecture developer incubated by the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture at the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The company's valuation has now exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27 this year, Zhongke Yushu completed a Series A financing round of hundreds of millions of yuan, led by Huatai Innovation, with Lingjun Investment and existing shareholder Guoxin Sichuang participating.</p><p>In an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App, Huang Liming, a partner at Hillhouse Capital and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Capital, stated that although the GPU market has broad prospects, China...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startup company</a>It's difficult to directly turn it into \"Nvidia\". Besides the technical difficulty, it also needs to be combined with strong applications—involving a software system and software ecosystem, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>In February 2020, Hillhouse Capital launched its independent VC brand, Hillhouse Capital. Since then, it has invested in the chip and semiconductor field, including semiconductor IP company Xin Yaohui, EDA manufacturer Xin Huazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Intelligent Connectivity, as well as Tianke Heda in the silicon carbide field, Minxin Semiconductor in the optical chip field, and Xingsi Semiconductor in the mobile phone baseband field.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that Hillhouse Capital believes that there will ultimately not be many companies that can emerge in this direction, whether overseas or domestically.</p><p><h2>The trend has arrived.</h2>“Let’s not dwell on how to replace Nvidia right now; we’ll take it one step at a time. I think China first needs to have domestically produced AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs, and other underlying computing power. As long as there is market demand in China, we will definitely have many opportunities,” Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of China Reflection Capital, told Titanium Media App. He added that the domestic semiconductor industry has reached its peak, and China now has the right timing, geographical advantages, and human resources to enter the GPU market. In particular, semiconductors and next-generation AI technology are areas where China must break through.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>Although the product is inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The Office suite, but the market has given it a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind this is that China must have a domestically produced Office, and the same principle applies to the domestically produced GPU market.</p><p>China Reflection Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China To invest in the mobile internet and cultural industries. In recent years, the B2B sector has also become a key investment area for China Reflection Capital. Currently, China Reflection Capital has invested in more than 30 projects in the B2B sector, with a total investment exceeding 700 million yuan. The ecosystem is being built by technology investor Zhang Gaonan. In the fields of data middleware and underlying computing power, China Reflection Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data, and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general-purpose platform that spans visual computing and AI computing, GPUs have a huge market potential.<b>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market size for domestic substitution in the GPU field will exceed US$34.1 billion. In addition to the existing gaming market, there is room for further development in areas such as industry, healthcare, and military aerospace.</b></p><p>In March of this year, Biren Technology, a general-purpose intelligent chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, former president of SenseTime, completed its Series B financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company has raised a total of over RMB 4.7 billion, with investors including Hillhouse Capital, China Reflection Capital, and others.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An</a>China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group State-owned Assets Reform Fund, and other companies have valuations exceeding 10 billion yuan, making them one of the fastest-growing \"unicorn\" companies in the semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>Besides Biren, companies such as Muxi Integrated Circuits and Moore Threads that have entered the GPU field have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25, GPU manufacturer Muxi Integrated Circuits announced the completion of a RMB 1 billion Series A financing round. Founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian, among others, are from American chip giant AMD. Investors include China State-owned Enterprise Restructuring Fund Co., Ltd.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">Internet Investment in China</a>Funds include Matrix Partners China, Heli Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, and Lenovo Ventures. Moore Threads, founded in 2020, claimed to have completed two rounds of multi-billion yuan financing within 100 days. The team members were mainly from Nvidia, and investors included Shenzhen Capital Group and Sequoia Capital.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony.ai, Five Sources Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the three startups mentioned above, Biren, Muxi, and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing chip manufacturing\". At the time of financing, none of them completed the tape-out (trial production on the assembly line) of their first chip.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? Several investors interviewed by Titanium Media App said that these projects can receive a lot of capital support because they are in the early stages of investment, mainly focusing on the team and the track: the AI chip track has reached its peak, and the senior management team is all from the \"Big Three American chip giants\".</p><p>“I think we need to give these companies opportunities and patience. It’s impossible for 500 people to write PowerPoint presentations. Manufacturing chips takes 5 to 10 years, and the reason we’re willing to invest is not for speculation or deception. I believe that investing in the semiconductor sector is inherently risky. You need to have a long-term plan and a strong risk tolerance, which is completely different from investing in innovative models in the internet industry,” the aforementioned investor told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some semiconductor industry investors pointed out that the aforementioned investment projects are essentially aimed at boosting market capitalization and achieving higher returns. Especially in the \"chip boom\" environment, venture capital institutions need to continuously seek out these GPU and AI chip companies in the early to mid-stages, hoping to gamble on a higher return.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU startups, the founding team gave rise to the \"Big Three American chip giants\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Smart Chip, previously served as chief technology expert at AMD; Mu Xi's founding team mainly comes from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang previously served as Senior Director of Graphics R&D at AMD, and CTO Yang Jian previously served as an AMD Fellow. Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, previously served as AMD's global vice president, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also previously worked at AMD.</p><p>In response, Zhang Gaonan stated that AMD is one of the top two chip giants in the GPU field. The core research and development of GPUs is all in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Companies can contact executives from AMD and Nvidia to communicate, and the person they ultimately choose will definitely be a leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in emerging niche markets, leveraging the demand-side application \"momentum,\" Chinese chip companies are concentrating their superior resources, serving local enterprises, and emphasizing development agility, giving them the opportunity to surpass chip giants like Nvidia in product definition and solution iteration cycles.<b>He predicts that a number of technologically advanced domestic GPU and DPU companies will emerge within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five stages of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and EDA, design is the most relevant to applications. Our greatest advantage lies in applications, so we have a great opportunity to achieve breakthroughs in the 'design' stage and then gradually expand our successful empire by using these points to drive overall development.\" The so-called \"leapfrogging\" is still a catch-up strategy. Only by entering a new track facing the future and accelerating at full speed can we more likely occupy a new strategic high ground. We hope that within 10 years, a number of technologically advanced, product-solid, and strategically minded companies will emerge. Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been raised from the product level to the system and ecosystem levels. In less than five years, China will catch up with or even lead international standards in the field of AI chip design. He emphasized that surpassing Nvidia requires redefining a product and a market.</p><p><h2>The multi-billion dollar DPU chip market is booming.</h2>According to Jensen Huang, the data processing unit (DPU), which is responsible for transmitting and processing data in data centers, together with the CPU and GPU, forms the \"three pillars of future computing\". While Chinese chip companies are focusing on GPUs, Nvidia is setting its sights on the two new markets of CPUs and DPUs.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced its plan to acquire British chip designer Arm from Japan's Software Group for $40 billion, which is expected to be the largest merger and acquisition in the semiconductor industry. However, the deal is controversial and currently awaits approval from governments such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. However, in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market, releasing the Grace CPU processor, which is what Jensen Huang mentioned at the beginning of this article. (See the previous article on Titanium Media App: \"UK government intervenes, Nvidia's $40 billion acquisition of Arm changes\")</p><p>In addition to CPUs and GPUs, Nvidia is also developing DPUs. In 2019, Nvidia announced its acquisition of Israeli network chip manufacturer Mellanox for $6.9 billion in all-cash, and ultimately acquired it. In this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, Jensen Huang valued Myloros's unrivaled capabilities in areas such as data center technology.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA launched its first DPU — the NVIDIA BlueField series of data processors.</b></p><p>Ultimately, DPUs are more flexible and secure. More importantly, they can free up CPU computing power, relieve server load, significantly reduce overall costs through low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power doubles every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, global computing, storage and network infrastructure is also undergoing a fundamental transformation: various \"X\" PU chips have emerged to cooperate with some workloads with excessive data volumes and excessive CPU resources. In addition to chips such as GPUs and FPGAs, DPUs are the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>Industry insiders used a vivid analogy: the internet is like building a road. In the 1G and 10G era, roads were no longer wide enough, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, by increasing traffic lights and deploying more traffic police to better coordinate resources, efficiency has been greatly improved, but it is still not enough. The first step is to widen the roads, which means increasing bandwidth. However, reducing the number of roads from two to four will still cause congestion relying solely on traffic lights and a limited number of traffic police. But we cannot increase the number of traffic police indefinitely. This requires the roads to be more intelligent and help solve congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, which occupies container capacity, while the DPU intelligently provides space capacity for the server. A large amount of virtualized space can increase computing power requirements.</p><p><b>By 2020, DPUs had surpassed competitor Intel's Infrastructure Processors (IPUs) and SmartNICs in popularity, giving every company eyeing the data center business a share of the pie. DPUs have become a new track that major chip giants and startups are vying to develop. Domestic DPUs are now in a state of flourishing, with Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, CDH Investments, and SoftBank China all entering the market.</b></p><p>In April of this year, according to data from Tianyancha, domestic DPU chip supplier \"Yunbao Intelligent\" completed...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Angel round financing jointly raised by investors, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital, and others; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed a Pre-A round of financing worth hundreds of millions of yuan, with investors including SoftBank China and Pudong Science and Technology Innovation Group. On July 27, DPU chip developer Zhongke Yushu completed a Series A financing round of hundreds of millions of yuan led by Huatai Innovation. On August 30, Nebula Intelligent, a DPU chip developer, announced the completion of a hundreds of millions of yuan angel round of financing, led by Hillhouse Capital, with CDH Investments VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the follow-on investment. In early September, IDG Capital launched its \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPUs may become the third computing chip after CPUs and GPUs, but structurally speaking, DPUs will be more heterogeneous and specialized,\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and other platforms. He added that the background to the emergence of DPUs is the demand for computing latency, data security, and resource virtualization brought about by the trend of end-edge-cloud integration caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed by these non-business loads and urgently needs an ideal object to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Leopard Research Institute predicts that the Chinese DPU market is expected to reach $3.74 billion by 2025. The global DPU market is projected to reach US$13.57 billion by 2025.</b>The report also points out that data circulation is the largest application market for DPUs, with bare metal services having a strong demand for DPUs. DPUs are mainly used in edge computing scenarios in the telecommunications market, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPUs for the field of intelligent driving are still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPUs will not be deployed in the field of intelligent driving until 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China DPU Market Size, Forecast 2020-2025, Source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that CPU performance has increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. Network bandwidth is still growing by about 35% annually.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge the company faced at the time was that compliance checks on transaction reports were too slow, and it needed to improve transaction efficiency. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, together with Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd., jointly developed a high-speed risk control system solution to accelerate this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed a number of products and solutions, including ultra-low latency smart network cards and data computing acceleration cards, which are mainly aimed at high-bandwidth, low-latency, and data-intensive scenarios. The company has already achieved quarterly revenue in the tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to be able to process up to 200G of network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is booming, the concept is relatively new, there are many unknowns, and the investment risks are also greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that the barriers to entry in the DPU sub-sector are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to continuously iterate, especially in conjunction with the continuous upgrading of open-source software to adapt to the rapidly changing software and hardware environment of customers. Therefore, before investing, VCs (venture capitalists) must first identify the sector and have sufficient patience. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe the market and adjust their judgments, as no one can predict the future development prospects of DPUs.</p><p>Some media outlets believe that Nvidia's entry into the newly opened CPU and DPU battlefield may be beneficial for Chinese GPU manufacturers, especially since Nvidia is still investing a lot of energy in the $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer Arm. This may be an opportunity for startup GPU companies to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan told Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low barriers to entry are usually not very scarce. (In the chip and semiconductor industry) some things are very difficult and require long-term investment. Although they are high-risk, someone has to do them. This is a long-term investment that is truly beneficial to the country, and investment should actually be encouraged. Otherwise, if no one does these difficult things that require long-term investment, you will never get to the top.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that while venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that, given the overall reasonable allocation of funds, investing in startups in the semiconductor sector not only has strong social significance but is also an important manifestation of a kind of long-term value investing.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When was \"Nvidia\" born in China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen was \"Nvidia\" born in China?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065587721\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">TMTPost </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>CEO Jensen Huang (Image source: Nvidia official website)</p><p>\"The product I am about to showcase incorporates new GPU-accelerated computing capabilities and features the Mellanox high-performance network. The product that completes our last piece of the puzzle is the world's first CPU processor designed specifically for TB-class data center accelerated computing. Its secret code name is Grace.\"</p><p>This is a quote from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC Summit in April 2021. However, unexpectedly, it wasn't until Nvidia's self-disclosure on August 12 that people learned that the speech, which was less than 100 words and 14 seconds long, did not feature Jensen Huang himself on camera, but rather a synthetic \"digital avatar,\" a \"virtual Jensen Huang\" image created using Nvidia's GPU processor and the Omniverse software platform.</p><p>This event sparked heated discussions about technologies and concepts such as virtual reality, the metaverse, and AI face swapping, and also brought Nvidia, the American chip giant, out of the semiconductor industry and into the public eye.</p><p>Since its founding in 1993, under the leadership of Jensen Huang, NVIDIA has successfully created and led the GPU (graphics processor) chip category, with products covering the entire PC device GPU to server GPU market. In the past five years,<b>Nvidia's market capitalization grew from $31 billion to $505 billion, making it the world's seventh-largest semiconductor supplier.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>A hot star company in the (AI) chip field.</b></p><p>At the same time, Nvidia's market capitalization exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Subsequently, the domestic semiconductor market saw greater market opportunities in the GPU and AI chip sectors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300474\">Jing Jiawei</a>Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688256\">Cambrian</a>Companies such as Muxi Integrated Circuits are all clustered in the general-purpose processor sector.</p><p>In the past two years, the domestic semiconductor industry has undergone transformation. Due to Huawei HiSilicon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">SMIC</a>The impact of the US \"Entity List\" and the chain reaction triggered by the global chip shortage have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to purchase US semiconductor products, and the demand for \"domestic substitution\" has become increasingly strong.</p><p>On June 29, 2020, due to the further upgrade of the U.S. Export Control Regulations and the continuous adjustment of the members of the Entity List, Intel \"temporarily suspended\" its chip supply to Inspur Group.</p><p>Although Inspur announced on July 3 that Intel had resumed supplying it, the temporary supply disruption crisis between one company, the world's largest supplier of x86 architecture chips for PCs and cloud services, and the other, China's largest server manufacturer, serves as a wake-up call for the entire Chinese cloud computing and semiconductor industry.<b>As the demand for computing power grows stronger, China needs to mass-produce domestically produced GPUs and server chips that are fully independent and controllable.</b>This highlights that \"domestic substitution\" is becoming the biggest driving force for the development of China's semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>Furthermore, as a major global chip seller, China has not produced a chip giant like Nvidia, and the large market has not produced a large company to match it.</b>According to statistics from IC Insight, the global semiconductor market size was US$395.7 billion in 2020, of which the Chinese mainland market size was US$43.4 billion, making it the world's largest market and accounting for 36.24% of the global market. However, the total output value of semiconductor companies headquartered in mainland China in 2020 was only US$8.3 billion, accounting for only 5.9% of the market size.</p><p><b>Who can get a piece of this huge pie? When will the semiconductor industry be able to create a \"Chinese Nvidia\"?</b></p><p><h2>Missing the Golden Age</h2>Graphics processing units (GPUs), also known as display chips or vision processors, were originally proposed by NVIDIA in 1999. They are microprocessors specifically designed to run graphics operations on personal computers, workstations, game consoles, and mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, VR devices).</p><p>As the parallel computing advantages of GPUs are gradually explored, the application fields of GPUs have expanded from graphics processing to high-performance computing, gradually becoming the most mature and widely used general-purpose chips in AI computing. In June 2020, NVIDIA launched the A100 Tensor Core GPU based on the Ampere architecture, becoming the world's most powerful AI chip.</p><p>From the perspective of application terminals, GPUs can be divided into PC GPUs, server GPUs, and mobile GPUs, corresponding to three architectures: independent graphics cards composed of dedicated circuit boards and components, shared integrated graphics cards, and mobile GPUs packaged with other chips or modules into highly integrated SoCs—which are used in multiple application scenarios including mobile phones, automotive electronics, and AI.</p><p><b>since<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>Following the acquisition of Canadian GPU manufacturer ATI in 2006, the global GPU market is currently dominated by the \"US chip giants\"—Intel, AMD, and Nvidia—in the PC and server GPU field. Intel has a clear advantage in the integrated GPU market, while Nvidia and AMD dominate the standalone GPU market.</b></p><p>According to data from Research firm Jon Peddie Research, in the first quarter of 2021, Intel ranked first in the global PC GPU market with a 68% market share, followed by AMD and Nvidia with 17% and 14% respectively, with the three companies holding a combined share of nearly 100%. In the global discrete GPU market, Nvidia is the leader in the data center GPU market, holding an 81% market share, while AMD ranks second with a 19% share.</p><p>In 2019 alone, NVIDIA captured 90% of the Chinese AI training chip market with products such as the V100 series, firmly grasping the huge AI chip sales market in China.</p><p>One of the core reasons why Nvidia has been able to maintain its position as the \"chip leader\" is its \"lightweight design model\". NVIDIA does not manufacture or package chips; it entrusts...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>With the OEM manufacturing completed, the company enjoys the benefits of advanced process technologies such as 7nm. According to financial reports, Nvidia's revenue increased by 233% between 2016 and 2021, and its operating profit doubled to $4.5 billion. In the three months ending in May this year, sales surged 84% year-on-year, while gross profit margin reached 64%.</p><p><b>In fact, China entered the field of GPU chip design a long time ago, but the results were not satisfactory.</b></p><p><b>Starting in the 1970s, China began to introduce semiconductor and integrated circuit technology and production lines. However, the result was an a vicious circle of \"generation after generation of imports and generation after generation of backwardness\". Coupled with the negative impact of the \"Hanxin No. 1\" fake chip incident on society, which caused China's \"independent processors\" to suffer a serious setback, and China's active promotion of WTO globalization, the company missed the golden age of the global semiconductor industry development, and downstream companies could only \"buy instead of manufacturing\".</b></p><p>It wasn't until 2000, marked by the issuance of the national \"Document No. 18,\" that China's semiconductor industry gradually formed an industrial organizational structure characterized by the separation of design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, and introduced...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>A number of chip manufacturing (Foundry) companies, represented by [company name], have been built and put into production in China, resulting in a rapid improvement in their technological level.</p><p>Currently, companies such as Jingjia Microelectronics, Tianshu Zhixin, Denglin Technology, Biren Technology, Suiyuan Technology, Cambricon, and Muxi Integrated Circuits are all clustered in the general-purpose processor track.</p><p>In 2014, Jingjia Microelectronics (300474.SH), which started with military aircraft graphics display control modules, successfully developed the military GPU chip JM5400. Subsequently, in 2018, it successfully developed the second-generation GPU chip JM7200 with a 28nm process. Jingjia Microelectronics has moved from military customization to general-purpose GPUs, becoming one of the few companies in the world and the only one in China to achieve commercial mass production of independent GPUs.</p><p>In addition to Jingjia Microelectronics, in March 2021, Tianshu Zhixin released China's first GPGPU (General Purpose Graphics Processor) manufactured using a 7-nanometer process, which removed 30% of the graphics rendering part of the traditional GPU and was created solely to handle artificial intelligence (AI) applications. In June of this year, Suiyuan Technology released the \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip, China's largest AI computing chip to date, the \"Yunsui T20\" training accelerator card based on Suisi 2.0, and the \"Yunsui T21\" training OAM module.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the JM7200 chip developed by Jingjia Microelectronics only has performance equivalent to that of the 2012 NVIDIA GTX 640, which is difficult to meet the application needs of enterprise customers. Even Suiyuan Technology's \"Suisi 2.0\" AI chip only managed to match NVIDIA's A100, with two of the six Benchmark tests significantly surpassing the NVIDIA A100's performance. (See the previous article on Titanium Media App: \"Suiyuan Technology Releases China's Largest AI Computing Chip, Accelerating the Implementation of Three Major Business Directions\")</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cb73d2787595547a9ed01926f4dfbe\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"1926\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The main reason behind this is that China's semiconductor industry started late, with high technological thresholds, high cost elasticity, and high industrial concentration. As a result, the overall R&D investment, technology, and talent of Chinese GPU chip companies lag behind those of foreign countries. As a result, they still lag behind chip giants in terms of product performance and technology, and downstream companies still find it difficult to escape the situation of the \"Big Three American chip companies\".</b></p><p>Taking R&D investment as an example, from 2011 to 2020, Jingjia Microelectronics' total R&D investment was RMB 627 million, while Nvidia's R&D investment in 2020 alone reached US$3.924 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB 25.323 billion. Over the ten years, Nvidia's total investment exceeded RMB 120 billion, a difference of more than 190 times.</p><p>In terms of talent, as of the first half of 2021, NVIDIA had as many as 18,975 employees, while Jingjia Microelectronics had a total of 1,174 employees, far fewer than AMD's 2,000 employees at its Shanghai R&D center.</p><p>\"The AI chip and GPU chip market is quite unique. Unlike traditional dedicated processors, the technology is very complex. It requires a large amount of data and needs to be combined with specific algorithms in order to be put into market use.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Xinsi Technology</a>In an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App in April this year, Xie Zhonghui, deputy general manager of China, said that if a company wants to make its first AI chip solid, it usually takes more than two to three years.</p><p>In his view, the chip and semiconductor industry itself is an industry with large investment, long cycles, and slow returns. The complete localization of technology requires long-term and continuous capital, talent, and technological accumulation, which is difficult to handle with the Internet mindset of \"throwing money and seeing returns\".</p><p><b>In addition, the hardware and software ecosystem combined with CUDA technology is another important reason why domestic chip companies have formed a significant gap with Nvidia.</b></p><p>In 2006, NVIDIA released the parallel computing platform CUDA, which includes a series of development tools. Only by installing and using this platform can complex parallel computing be performed. Anyone with a laptop equipped with an NVIDIA GPU can use CUDA to perform scientific and convenient programming computations, such as deep learning and AI algorithms, and develop related software. For more than a decade, NVIDIA has been relentlessly promoting CUDA, enabling more government and enterprise-level software to be developed based on the platform, combining NVIDIA's self-developed GPU hardware with CUDA software to efficiently achieve application implementation.</p><p>In contrast, there is currently no series of platforms in China that are deeply integrated with CUDA and NVIDIA hardware, indicating a significant gap in technological barriers. Most domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Tianshu Zhixin and Denglin, have adopted a strategy of being compatible with the CUDA open-source framework, preparing to cultivate their own software ecosystem on this basis.</p><p>\"In the short term, CUDA-compatible domestic GPUs are easier to develop. After all, writing operators is a labor-intensive industry, and user migration requires 100% migration, with the entire code set running on your chip. If the amount of code is small, fewer operators are needed, making the difficulty relatively low. However, in the long run, we still need to move away from compatibility thinking and develop our own core technologies,\" said an industry insider. He added that choosing compatibility mainly ensures that existing software remains usable, and in the future, they will continuously improve their own platforms to better match their own chips, thereby attracting developers to migrate.</p><p>However, some companies choose not to be compatible with the CUDA ecosystem. For example, Suiyuan Technology, which makes AI training and inference chips at the same time, comprehensively upgraded its \"Yusuan TopsRider\" software platform and the new \"Yunsui Cluster\" this year, hoping to gain ecosystem dominance.</p><p><b>In summary, these domestic chip companies that compete with Nvidia are still in the early stages of development. Their industrialization and marketization capabilities for AI chip technology are relatively weak, and they have not yet generated actual large-scale use. They still have a long way to go before they can surpass or replace \"China's Nvidia\".</b></p><p>In an interview with Titanium Media App, Yan Guihai, CEO of Zhongke Yushu, said that although China's demand side is still the world's largest single market with one of the highest growth rates and the \"demand side\" is still very strong, there is still a considerable gap in both design and manufacturing of high-end chips, and the \"supply side\" is not strong enough. He pointed out that the quality of the supply side depends not only on a single company, but on the capabilities of the entire industry chain. It is unrealistic to build such a large-scale and comprehensively leading enterprise in the short term.</p><p>Founded in 2018, Zhongke Yushu is a dedicated computing architecture developer incubated by the State Key Laboratory of Computer Architecture at the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The company's valuation has now exceeded 1 billion yuan. On July 27 this year, Zhongke Yushu completed a Series A financing round of hundreds of millions of yuan, led by Huatai Innovation, with Lingjun Investment and existing shareholder Guoxin Sichuang participating.</p><p>In an exclusive interview with Titanium Media App, Huang Liming, a partner at Hillhouse Capital and head of software and hard technology at Hillhouse Capital, stated that although the GPU market has broad prospects, China...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startup company</a>It's difficult to directly turn it into \"Nvidia\". Besides the technical difficulty, it also needs to be combined with strong applications—involving a software system and software ecosystem, which is extremely demanding for startups.</p><p>In February 2020, Hillhouse Capital launched its independent VC brand, Hillhouse Capital. Since then, it has invested in the chip and semiconductor field, including semiconductor IP company Xin Yaohui, EDA manufacturer Xin Huazhang, GPU platform Biren Technology, DPU company Nebula Intelligent Connectivity, as well as Tianke Heda in the silicon carbide field, Minxin Semiconductor in the optical chip field, and Xingsi Semiconductor in the mobile phone baseband field.</p><p>Huang Liming emphasized that Hillhouse Capital believes that there will ultimately not be many companies that can emerge in this direction, whether overseas or domestically.</p><p><h2>The trend has arrived.</h2>“Let’s not dwell on how to replace Nvidia right now; we’ll take it one step at a time. I think China first needs to have domestically produced AI chips, general-purpose GPUs, FPGAs, and other underlying computing power. As long as there is market demand in China, we will definitely have many opportunities,” Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of China Reflection Capital, told Titanium Media App. He added that the domestic semiconductor industry has reached its peak, and China now has the right timing, geographical advantages, and human resources to enter the GPU market. In particular, semiconductors and next-generation AI technology are areas where China must break through.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan gave an example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">Kingsoft Office</a>Although the product is inferior to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The Office suite, but the market has given it a market value of more than 110 billion yuan. One of the important reasons behind this is that China must have a domestically produced Office, and the same principle applies to the domestically produced GPU market.</p><p>China Reflection Capital is one of the earliest private equity funds in China To invest in the mobile internet and cultural industries. In recent years, the B2B sector has also become a key investment area for China Reflection Capital. Currently, China Reflection Capital has invested in more than 30 projects in the B2B sector, with a total investment exceeding 700 million yuan. The ecosystem is being built by technology investor Zhang Gaonan. In the fields of data middleware and underlying computing power, China Reflection Capital has invested in projects such as Biren Technology, Tianyun Big Data, and Zhongke Haiwei.</p><p>In fact, as a general-purpose platform that spans visual computing and AI computing, GPUs have a huge market potential.<b>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>It is estimated that by 2027, the market size for domestic substitution in the GPU field will exceed US$34.1 billion. In addition to the existing gaming market, there is room for further development in areas such as industry, healthcare, and military aerospace.</b></p><p>In March of this year, Biren Technology, a general-purpose intelligent chip designer co-founded by Zhang Wen, former president of SenseTime, completed its Series B financing. Since its establishment in September 2019, the company has raised a total of over RMB 4.7 billion, with investors including Hillhouse Capital, China Reflection Capital, and others.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An</a>China Merchants Capital, BAI Capital, Guosheng Group State-owned Assets Reform Fund, and other companies have valuations exceeding 10 billion yuan, making them one of the fastest-growing \"unicorn\" companies in the semiconductor industry.</p><p><b>Besides Biren, companies such as Muxi Integrated Circuits and Moore Threads that have entered the GPU field have also completed financing.</b></p><p>On August 25, GPU manufacturer Muxi Integrated Circuits announced the completion of a RMB 1 billion Series A financing round. Founders Chen Weiliang and Yang Jian, among others, are from American chip giant AMD. Investors include China State-owned Enterprise Restructuring Fund Co., Ltd.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00810\">Internet Investment in China</a>Funds include Matrix Partners China, Heli Capital, Sequoia China, Lightspeed China, Guochuang Zhongding, Smart Internet Industry Fund, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, and Lenovo Ventures. Moore Threads, founded in 2020, claimed to have completed two rounds of multi-billion yuan financing within 100 days. The team members were mainly from Nvidia, and investors included Shenzhen Capital Group and Sequoia Capital.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">China Fund</a>China Merchants Venture Capital, ByteDance, Pony.ai, Five Sources Capital, etc.</p><p><b>However, an interesting phenomenon is that the three startups mentioned above, Biren, Muxi, and Moore Thread, are veritable \"PPT financing chip manufacturing\". At the time of financing, none of them completed the tape-out (trial production on the assembly line) of their first chip.</b></p><p>Why are market investors willing to open their wallets to this? Several investors interviewed by Titanium Media App said that these projects can receive a lot of capital support because they are in the early stages of investment, mainly focusing on the team and the track: the AI chip track has reached its peak, and the senior management team is all from the \"Big Three American chip giants\".</p><p>“I think we need to give these companies opportunities and patience. It’s impossible for 500 people to write PowerPoint presentations. Manufacturing chips takes 5 to 10 years, and the reason we’re willing to invest is not for speculation or deception. I believe that investing in the semiconductor sector is inherently risky. You need to have a long-term plan and a strong risk tolerance, which is completely different from investing in innovative models in the internet industry,” the aforementioned investor told Titanium Media App.</p><p>However, some semiconductor industry investors pointed out that the aforementioned investment projects are essentially aimed at boosting market capitalization and achieving higher returns. Especially in the \"chip boom\" environment, venture capital institutions need to continuously seek out these GPU and AI chip companies in the early to mid-stages, hoping to gamble on a higher return.</p><p>In addition, in this wave of GPU startups, the founding team gave rise to the \"Big Three American chip giants\". For example, Zheng Jinshan, chief scientist of Tianshu Smart Chip, previously served as chief technology expert at AMD; Mu Xi's founding team mainly comes from AMD. CEO Chen Weiliang previously served as Senior Director of Graphics R&D at AMD, and CTO Yang Jian previously served as an AMD Fellow. Li Xinrong, the newly appointed co-CEO of Biren Technology, previously served as AMD's global vice president, and Chen Wenzhong, senior vice president of Biren Technology, also previously worked at AMD.</p><p>In response, Zhang Gaonan stated that AMD is one of the top two chip giants in the GPU field. The core research and development of GPUs is all in Shanghai, while the research and development of graphics rendering is in the United States. Companies can contact executives from AMD and Nvidia to communicate, and the person they ultimately choose will definitely be a leader in the semiconductor industry.</p><p>Yan Guihai believes that in emerging niche markets, leveraging the demand-side application \"momentum,\" Chinese chip companies are concentrating their superior resources, serving local enterprises, and emphasizing development agility, giving them the opportunity to surpass chip giants like Nvidia in product definition and solution iteration cycles.<b>He predicts that a number of technologically advanced domestic GPU and DPU companies will emerge within 10 years.</b></p><p>\"Among the five stages of the chip industry: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, materials, and EDA, design is the most relevant to applications. Our greatest advantage lies in applications, so we have a great opportunity to achieve breakthroughs in the 'design' stage and then gradually expand our successful empire by using these points to drive overall development.\" The so-called \"leapfrogging\" is still a catch-up strategy. Only by entering a new track facing the future and accelerating at full speed can we more likely occupy a new strategic high ground. We hope that within 10 years, a number of technologically advanced, product-solid, and strategically minded companies will emerge. Yan Guihai told Titanium Media App.</p><p>Zhang Wen, founder of Biren Technology, said that the capability requirements for chip companies have been raised from the product level to the system and ecosystem levels. In less than five years, China will catch up with or even lead international standards in the field of AI chip design. He emphasized that surpassing Nvidia requires redefining a product and a market.</p><p><h2>The multi-billion dollar DPU chip market is booming.</h2>According to Jensen Huang, the data processing unit (DPU), which is responsible for transmitting and processing data in data centers, together with the CPU and GPU, forms the \"three pillars of future computing\". While Chinese chip companies are focusing on GPUs, Nvidia is setting its sights on the two new markets of CPUs and DPUs.</p><p>In September 2020, Nvidia announced its plan to acquire British chip designer Arm from Japan's Software Group for $40 billion, which is expected to be the largest merger and acquisition in the semiconductor industry. However, the deal is controversial and currently awaits approval from governments such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and China. However, in April 2021, Nvidia announced its entry into the data center CPU market, releasing the Grace CPU processor, which is what Jensen Huang mentioned at the beginning of this article. (See the previous article on Titanium Media App: \"UK government intervenes, Nvidia's $40 billion acquisition of Arm changes\")</p><p>In addition to CPUs and GPUs, Nvidia is also developing DPUs. In 2019, Nvidia announced its acquisition of Israeli network chip manufacturer Mellanox for $6.9 billion in all-cash, and ultimately acquired it. In this largest acquisition in Nvidia's history, Jensen Huang valued Myloros's unrivaled capabilities in areas such as data center technology.<b>In October 2020, NVIDIA launched its first DPU — the NVIDIA BlueField series of data processors.</b></p><p>Ultimately, DPUs are more flexible and secure. More importantly, they can free up CPU computing power, relieve server load, significantly reduce overall costs through low power consumption, and even improve the performance of AI and machine learning applications.</p><p>According to IDC statistics, the global demand for computing power doubles every 3.5 months, far exceeding the current growth rate of computing power. Driven by this, global computing, storage and network infrastructure is also undergoing a fundamental transformation: various \"X\" PU chips have emerged to cooperate with some workloads with excessive data volumes and excessive CPU resources. In addition to chips such as GPUs and FPGAs, DPUs are the next \"X\" PU.</p><p>Industry insiders used a vivid analogy: the internet is like building a road. In the 1G and 10G era, roads were no longer wide enough, and there were more and more cars. In order to balance the pressure, by increasing traffic lights and deploying more traffic police to better coordinate resources, efficiency has been greatly improved, but it is still not enough. The first step is to widen the roads, which means increasing bandwidth. However, reducing the number of roads from two to four will still cause congestion relying solely on traffic lights and a limited number of traffic police. But we cannot increase the number of traffic police indefinitely. This requires the roads to be more intelligent and help solve congestion.</p><p>Zhang Gaonan pointed out that a large amount of network management is in the CPU, which occupies container capacity, while the DPU intelligently provides space capacity for the server. A large amount of virtualized space can increase computing power requirements.</p><p><b>By 2020, DPUs had surpassed competitor Intel's Infrastructure Processors (IPUs) and SmartNICs in popularity, giving every company eyeing the data center business a share of the pie. DPUs have become a new track that major chip giants and startups are vying to develop. Domestic DPUs are now in a state of flourishing, with Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, CDH Investments, and SoftBank China all entering the market.</b></p><p>In April of this year, according to data from Tianyancha, domestic DPU chip supplier \"Yunbao Intelligent\" completed...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Angel round financing jointly raised by investors, Sequoia Capital, Yaotu Capital, and others; At the end of May, Xinqiyuan completed a Pre-A round of financing worth hundreds of millions of yuan, with investors including SoftBank China and Pudong Science and Technology Innovation Group. On July 27, DPU chip developer Zhongke Yushu completed a Series A financing round of hundreds of millions of yuan led by Huatai Innovation. On August 30, Nebula Intelligent, a DPU chip developer, announced the completion of a hundreds of millions of yuan angel round of financing, led by Hillhouse Capital, with CDH Investments VGC and Walden International China Fund participating in the follow-on investment. In early September, IDG Capital launched its \"Yunmai Xinlian\" angel round financing project.</p><p>\"DPUs may become the third computing chip after CPUs and GPUs, but structurally speaking, DPUs will be more heterogeneous and specialized,\" Yan Guihai said in an interview with Titanium Media App and other platforms. He added that the background to the emergence of DPUs is the demand for computing latency, data security, and resource virtualization brought about by the trend of end-edge-cloud integration caused by the data explosion in the intelligent era. The CPU is overwhelmed by these non-business loads and urgently needs an ideal object to share these computational loads.</p><p><b>Leopard Research Institute predicts that the Chinese DPU market is expected to reach $3.74 billion by 2025. The global DPU market is projected to reach US$13.57 billion by 2025.</b>The report also points out that data circulation is the largest application market for DPUs, with bare metal services having a strong demand for DPUs. DPUs are mainly used in edge computing scenarios in the telecommunications market, with a penetration rate of less than 5%. DPUs for the field of intelligent driving are still in the exploratory stage, and it is expected that DPUs will not be deployed in the field of intelligent driving until 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170c585dab44018726df81a32c63d62\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>China DPU Market Size, Forecast 2020-2025, Source: Toubao Research Institute</p><p>Yan Guihai pointed out that CPU performance has increased from 30% per year 5-10 years ago to less than 3% per year three years ago. Network bandwidth is still growing by about 35% annually.</p><p>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>For example, the challenge the company faced at the time was that compliance checks on transaction reports were too slow, and it needed to improve transaction efficiency. Therefore, Zhongke Yushu, together with Zhongtai Securities and Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Co., Ltd., jointly developed a high-speed risk control system solution to accelerate this process. Zhongke Yushu has successively developed a number of products and solutions, including ultra-low latency smart network cards and data computing acceleration cards, which are mainly aimed at high-bandwidth, low-latency, and data-intensive scenarios. The company has already achieved quarterly revenue in the tens of millions this year. Zhongke Yushu's next-generation DPU chip is expected to be designed by the end of 2021 and is expected to be able to process up to 200G of network bandwidth data.</p><p><b>However, although the DPU market is booming, the concept is relatively new, there are many unknowns, and the investment risks are also greater.</b></p><p>Lu Sheng, CEO of Xinqiyuan, pointed out that the barriers to entry in the DPU sub-sector are still relatively high. In addition to technical barriers, there are also market barriers, which require customers to continuously iterate, especially in conjunction with the continuous upgrading of open-source software to adapt to the rapidly changing software and hardware environment of customers. Therefore, before investing, VCs (venture capitalists) must first identify the sector and have sufficient patience. He emphasized that investors need to constantly observe the market and adjust their judgments, as no one can predict the future development prospects of DPUs.</p><p>Some media outlets believe that Nvidia's entry into the newly opened CPU and DPU battlefield may be beneficial for Chinese GPU manufacturers, especially since Nvidia is still investing a lot of energy in the $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer Arm. This may be an opportunity for startup GPU companies to catch up.</p><p>As Zhang Gaonan told Titanium Media App, \"Logically speaking, things with low barriers to entry are usually not very scarce. (In the chip and semiconductor industry) some things are very difficult and require long-term investment. Although they are high-risk, someone has to do them. This is a long-term investment that is truly beneficial to the country, and investment should actually be encouraged. Otherwise, if no one does these difficult things that require long-term investment, you will never get to the top.\"</p><p>Zhang Gaonan emphasized that while venture capital must pursue returns, he believes that, given the overall reasonable allocation of funds, investing in startups in the semiconductor sector not only has strong social significance but is also an important manifestation of a kind of long-term value investing.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e0bbbfdbdc6f8f2f7ce512582f7c3e","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166195813","content_text":"英伟达CEO黄仁勋（图片来源：Nvidia官网）\n“我即将展示的产品，融合了新的GPU加速计算能力，拥有Mellanox高性能网络，补足我们最后一块拼图的产品是——全球首款专为TB级数据中心加速计算而设计的CPU处理器，它的秘密代号是Grace。”\n这是2021年4月英伟达（NVIDIA）CEO黄仁勋在GTC峰会演讲中的一段话。然而，让人意想不到的是，直到8月12日英伟达自曝后人们才知道，这段不足100字、14秒的演讲内容竟然不是黄仁勋本人出镜，而是使用了合成的“数字替身”，即利用英伟达GPU处理器与Omniverse软件平台共同形成的“虚拟黄仁勋”形象。\n这一事件引发了人们对虚拟现实、元宇宙、AI换脸等技术和概念的激烈讨论，同时也让“英伟达”这家美国芯片霸主从半导体行业“出圈”，走入了大众视野。\n自1993年成立至今，在黄仁勋的带领下，英伟达成功创造且引领了GPU（图形处理器）芯片这一类别，产品覆盖整个PC设备GPU至服务器GPU市场。过去五年内，英伟达市值从310亿美元增长到5050亿美元，跻身成为全球第七大半导体供应商，是人工智能（AI）芯片领域炙手可热的明星企业。\n与此同时，在英伟达市值超过英特尔之后，国内半导体市场看到了GPU、AI芯片赛道更大的市场机会，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n近两年，国内半导体产业发生着转变。由于华为海思、中芯国际等企业受美方“实体清单”影响，以及全球芯片短缺引发的连锁反应，使得中国企业愈加难采购到美国半导体产品，对于“国产替代”需求愈加强烈。\n2020年6月29日，由于美国《出口管理条例》再升级，实体清单企业成员在不断调整，英特尔“临时性暂停”对浪潮集团的芯片供货。\n尽管随后在7月3日，浪潮方面宣布英特尔已恢复对其供货，但一家是全球最大的PC、云服务x86架构芯片供应商，另一方是中国最大的服务器厂商，两家公司之间的临时断供危机，为整个中国云计算、半导体行业提了一个醒：随着算力需求越来越强烈，中国需要大规模生产全面自主可控的国产GPU、服务器芯片产品。从而凸显了“国产替代”正成为中国半导体行业发展的最大驱动力。\n另外，作为全球芯片销量大国，中国却没有出现一家“英伟达”这样的芯片巨头，大市场并没有产生与之匹配的大公司。根据IC Insight的统计显示，2020年全球半导体市场规模为3957亿美元，其中，中国大陆市场规模是434亿美元，为全球最大市场，占全球比例达到36.24%。然而，总部位于中国大陆的半导体公司2020年总产值仅为83亿美元，仅占市场规模的5.9%。\n偌大的蛋糕，究竟谁能切下一角？半导体产业何时才能造出“中国英伟达”？\n错失黄金时代\nGPU图形处理器又被称为显示芯片、视觉处理器，最初于1999年由英伟达提出，是个人电脑、工作站、游戏主机以及移动设备（智能手机、平板电脑、VR设备）上专门运行绘图运算的微处理器。\n随着GPU的并行计算优势被逐步挖掘，GPU的应用领域从图形处理扩展到高性能计算，逐步成为Al计算最成熟、应用最广泛的通用型芯片。2020年6月，英伟达推出基于安培（Ampere）架构的A100 Tensor Core GPU，成为全球性能最强的AI芯片。\n以应用终端角度分类，GPU可分为PC端GPU、服务器GPU和移动端GPU，对应三种架构，即与专用电路板及组件组成的独立显卡，共享集成显卡，以及移动端GPU与其他芯片或模块一起封装成高集成度的SoC——应用于手机、汽车电子、AI在内的多个应用场景。\n自从AMD在2006年收购加拿大GPU厂商ATI之后，目前，在PC及服务器GPU领域，全球GPU市场呈现“美国芯片三巨头”——英特尔、AMD和英伟达垄断的局面。集成GPU市场英特尔优势明显，独立GPU市场英伟达和AMD两强割据。\n根据研究机构Jon Peddie Research的数据显示，2021年第一季度，全球PC端GPU市场中，英特尔（Intel）以68%市场份额位居榜首，AMD和英伟达分别为17%和14%，三家共计份额接近100%；全球独立GPU领域中，英伟达是数据中心GPU市场领导者，占据81%的市场份额，拥有领先优势，AMD则以占比19%位居第二。\n仅2019年，英伟达凭借V100系列等产品，占据了中国AI训练芯片市场90%份额，牢牢掌握着中国这一庞大的AI芯片销售市场。\n英伟达能持续作为“芯片霸主”地位的核心原因之一在于其“轻设计模式”。英伟达不做芯片制造和封装，交由台积电代工完成，自身享受7nm等先进制程工艺技术红利。根据财报显示，2016年至2021年期间，英伟达收入增长了233%，营业利润翻了一番，达到45亿美元。在截至今年5月的三个月内，销售额同比猛增84%，毛利率则达到了64%。\n事实上，中国很早就进入了GPU芯片设计领域，但结果并不如意。\n从20世纪70年代开始，中国开始引进半导体与集成电路技术和生产线。但结果却是陷入了“代代引进、代代落后”的恶性循环，加上“汉芯一号”假芯片事件给社会带来的不良影响，让中国的“自主处理器”遭受严重挫败，以及中国积极推动WTO全球化等因素，从而错失了全球半导体产业发展的黄金时期，下游企业只能“造不如买”。\n到2000年，以国家“18号文件”出台为标志，中国半导体才逐渐形成设计、制造、封装测试“三业分离”的产业组织形态，引进以“中芯国际”为代表的一批芯片制造（Foundry）企业在华建设、投产，技术水平也因此得到快速提升。\n目前，景嘉微、天数智芯、登临科技、壁仞科技、燧原科技、寒武纪、沐曦集成电路等企业均在通用处理器这一赛道中集聚。\n2014年，以军机图形显示控制模块起家的“景嘉微”（300474.SH）成功研制出军用GPU芯片JM5400，随后在2018年成功研发出28nm制程工艺的第二代GPU芯片JM7200。景嘉微从军用定制走向通用GPU，成为全球少数、国内唯一实现独立GPU商用量产的公司。\n除景嘉微外，2021年3月天数智芯发布了国内首颗7纳米工艺制造的GPGPU（通用图形处理器），即去掉了传统GPU 30%的图形渲染部分，只为处理人工智能（AI）应用而生；燧原科技则在今年6月发布了迄今中国最大的AI计算芯片“邃思2.0”AI芯片、基于邃思2.0的“云燧T20”训练加速卡和“云燧T21”训练OAM模组。\n但值得注意的是，景嘉微研发的JM7200芯片，性能只相当于2012年英伟达GTX 640水平，难以满足企业客户的应用需求。即便燧原科技的“邃思2.0”AI芯片，也仅和英伟达的A100达成平手，Benchmark测试的6个项目中有2项大幅超越了英伟达A100的性能表现。（详见钛媒体App前文：《燧原科技发布中国最大的AI计算芯片，加速推进三大业务方向落地》）\n\n背后的原因，主要由于中国半导体产业起步晚，芯片的技术门槛高、成本弹性大、产业高度集中，使得中国GPU芯片企业的整体研发投入、技术、人才都滞后于国外，从而在产品性能和技术上依然和芯片巨头有差距，下游企业依然难以脱离“美国芯片三巨头”的境地。\n以研发投入为例，2011年至2020年的十年间，景嘉微的研发投入费用总额为人民币6.27亿元，而英伟达2020年这一年的研发投入就达到39.24亿美元，约合人民币253.23亿元，十年间英伟达总计投入超过1200亿元人民币，两者相差超190倍。\n在人才方面，截至2021年上半年，英伟达员工人数高达18975人，景嘉微总员工人数为1174人，远低于AMD在上海研发中心的2000名员工。\n“AI芯片、GPU芯片市场比较特殊，跟传统的专用处理器不一样，技术十分复杂。它需要大量的数据，需要和特定的算法结合，才能够付诸市场运用。”新思科技中国副总经理谢仲辉在今年4月接受钛媒体App独家专访时表示，如果企业想把首颗AI芯片做扎实，通常需要两三年以上。\n在他看来，芯片半导体本身是一个投入大、周期长、见效慢的行业，技术完全国产化需要长期持续的资金、人才和技术积累，很难用“砸金钱见回报”这种互联网思维来处理。\n此外，结合CUDA技术的软硬件生态，也是国内芯片企业与英伟达形成较大差距的另一重要原因。\n2006年，英伟达就发布了并行计算平台CUDA，其中包含一系列开发工具，只有安装使用这个平台才能够进行复杂的并行计算，任何人只要拥有一台配有英伟达GPU的笔记本电脑，就可以利用CUDA可以进行科学、便捷编程计算，比如深度学习、AI算法等，开发相关软件。过去十多年，英伟达坚持不懈地推广CUDA，使更多政企级类型软件都基于该平台开发，将英伟达自研GPU硬件与CUDA软件相结合，高效实现应用落地。\n相比之下，目前国内却没有一个类似CUDA和英伟达硬件深度绑定的系列平台，技术壁垒差距十分明显。大部分国产GPU厂商均采取兼容CUDA开源框架的策略，如天数智芯、登临等，准备在此基础上培育自己的软件生态。\n“短期来看，国产GPU兼容CUDA更容易发展，毕竟写算子是人力密集型行业，用户迁移的话是需要100%迁移、整套代码都要在你的片上跑，如果代码量很小，需要的算子不那么多，难度就比较低。但是长期来看，还是要摆脱兼容思路，发展自有的核心技术。”芯片行业内人士表示，选择兼容主要是确保已有软件依然可用，未来会不断改进自家平台，使其更加匹配自己的芯片，从而吸引开发者迁移。\n但也有企业选择不兼容CUDA生态，比如同时做AI训练和推理芯片的燧原科技，今年全面升级了其“驭算TopsRider”软件平台以及全新的“云燧集群”，希望能拥有生态主导权。\n总结来看，对标英伟达的这些国内芯片企业依然处在发展的初级阶段，AI芯片技术的产业化、市场化能力较弱，没有产生实际的大规模使用，距离超越或取代“中国英伟达”仍然有很长的路要走。\n中科驭数CEO鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，虽然目前中国需求侧虽然还是全球最大的单一市场，增速也名列前茅，“需求侧”还是很强劲的，但在高端芯片方面无论是设计还是制造还有不小差距，“供给侧”不够强大。他指出，供给侧的优劣不仅取决于一家企业，而是全产业链能力。短期内要想打造出这样大体量和全面引领性的企业还是不太现实的。\n中科驭数成立于2018年，是一家专用计算架构研发商，孵化自中科院计算所的计算机体系结构国家重点实验室，如今公司估值已超10亿元。今年7月27日，中科驭数完成数亿元A轮融资，由华泰创新领投，灵均投资以及老股东国新思创跟投。\n高瓴合伙人、高瓴创投软件与硬科技负责人黄立明在接受钛媒体App的独家专访时表示，虽然GPU市场前景广阔，但中国创业公司很难直接做成“英伟达”。除了技术难度外，还要结合很强的应用来做——涉及到软件系统软件生态，这对创业公司来说要求是极高的。\n高瓴于2020年2月推出独立VC品牌高瓴创投，此后其对芯片半导体领域进行投资入局，其中包括半导体IP企业芯耀辉、EDA厂商芯华章，GPU平台壁仞科技、DPU公司星云智联，加上碳化硅方面的天科合达、光芯片领域的敏芯半导体、以及手机基带星思半导体等。\n黄立明强调，能在这个方向跑出来的公司，无论海外还是国内，高瓴判断最终都不会有很多。\n风口已至\n“我们现在先不纠结于怎么去取代英伟达，路都是一步一步走的。我觉得首先中国得有国产AI芯片、通用GPU、FPGA等底层算力。只要国内有市场需求，我们一定有很多机会。”华映资本主管合伙人章高男对钛媒体App表示，国内半导体产业风口已至，中国现在切入GPU市场是“天时、地利、人和”皆备，尤其半导体和下一代AI技术都是中国必须突围的领域。\n章高男举了一个例子，金山办公产品虽然逊于微软Office套件，但市场给出1100多亿元市值，背后重要原因之一是，中国必须得有国产office，同样道理也适用于国产的GPU市场。\n华映资本是国内最早布局移动互联网和文化产业的私募股权基金之一，近几年To B领域也成为华映资本重点关注的投资领域。目前华映资本在To B领域投资的30余个项目，投资总额超7亿元生态，由技术型投资人章高男负责搭建。在数据中台及底层算力相关领域，华映资本投资布局了壁仞科技、天云大数据，中科海微等项目。\n实际上，作为横跨视觉计算和AI计算的通用平台，GPU拥有巨大的市场空间。据东吴证券测算，预计到2027年，GPU领域国产替代的市场空间规模超过341亿美元。除了既有的游戏市场，在工业、医疗、军事航天等方向都有进一步的发挥空间。\n今年3月，原商汤科技总裁张文联合创立的通用智能芯片设计商“壁仞科技”完成了B轮融资。2019年9月成立以来，公司总融资额超47亿元人民币，投资方包括高瓴创投、华映资本、中国平安、招商局资本、BAI资本、国盛集团国改基金等，估值已超过100亿元，成长半导体行业势头最为迅猛的“独角兽”企业之一。\n除壁仞外，沐曦集成电路、摩尔线程等入局GPU领域的企业也都完成了融资。\n8月25日，GPU厂商沐曦集成电路宣布完成10亿元人民币的A轮融资，创始人陈维良、杨建等均来自美国芯片巨头AMD，投资方包括中国国有企业结构调整基金股份有限公司、中国互联网投资基金、经纬中国、和利资本、红杉中国、光速中国、国创中鼎、智慧互联产业基金、上海科创基金、联想创投等；而2020年成立的摩尔线程，宣称100天内就完成了两轮数十亿元融资，团队成员主要来自英伟达，投资方包括深创投、红杉资本中国基金、招商局创投、字节跳动、小马智行、五源资本等。\n不过，一个有趣的现象是，壁仞、沐曦、摩尔线程上述三家初创企业是名副其实的“PPT融资造芯”，融资时无一家完成首颗芯片的流片（流水线试生产）。\n为何市场投资人愿意对此敞开钱包？数位投资人在接受钛媒体App采访时表示，这些项目能够获得大量资本支持，原因都为投资早期，主要看的还是团队、赛道两部分：AI芯片赛道风口已至，高管团队也均出自“美国芯片三巨头”。\n“我觉得需要给这些企业机会和耐心，不可能500个人都在写PPT。制造芯片是一个5年到10年的事情，我们愿意去投的原因，并非是投机或者是忽悠。我认为，投半导体赛道本身风险就高，需要做好长周期的打算，需要有足够强的风险承担能力，这和投资互联网的模式创新完全不一样。”上述投资人对钛媒体App表示。\n但也有半导体行业投资人指出，上述投资项目本质上还是希望市值撑高，有更高的回报率，尤其“芯片热”环境下，风投机构需要不断在中早期寻找这些GPU、AI芯片企业标的，希望从中赌得一份更高的回报。\n此外，在这一波GPU创业浪潮中，创始团队师出“美国芯片三巨头”。例如，天数智芯首席科学家郑金山曾任AMD首席技术专家；沐曦的创始团队主要来自AMD，CEO陈维良曾在AMD担任图形研发高级总监，CTO杨建曾任AMD Fellow（院士）；壁仞科技最新上任的联席CEO李新荣，曾任AMD全球副总裁，壁仞科技高级副总裁陈文中也曾在AMD任职。\n对此，章高男表示，AMD是GPU领域排名前二的芯片巨头，关于GPU核心研发都在上海，而图形渲染的研发是在美国，企业可以去找AMD和英伟达两家公司高管去沟通，而最终选择的人肯定是半导体行业内的佼佼者。\n鄢贵海认为，在细分新兴赛道，凭借需求侧的应用“势能”，中国芯片企业集中优势兵力，立足服务本土企业，突出开发的敏捷性，是有机会在产品定义、方案迭代周期上超越“英伟达”这些芯片巨头。他预计，10年内会出现一批技术领先的国产GPU、DPU企业。\n“芯片产业五个环节：设计、制造、封测、材料、EDA五个环节中，与应用最相关的是设计，我们最大的优势又在于应用，所以非常有机会在“设计”这一环节取得突破，然后以点带面，逐步扩大胜利版图。所谓“弯道超车”还是追赶策略，切入面向未来的新赛道并且全力加速才更有可能占据新的战略制高点。希望能在10年内能出现一批技术领先、产品扎实而且富有战略意识的企业。”鄢贵海对钛媒体App表示。\n壁仞科技创始人张文表示，对芯片公司的能力要求从产品级提升到系统级和生态级。时间上不超过5年，中国在AI芯片设计领域赶上甚至领先国际水准。他强调，超越英伟达，需要重新定义一个产品，以及重新定义一个市场。\n百亿DPU芯片市场“爆火”\n在黄仁勋看来，负责在数据中心传输和处理数据的数据处理单元（DPU），正与CPU、GPU共同组成“未来计算的三大支柱”。当中国芯片企业发力GPU时，英伟达则把目光放在了CPU、DPU这两个新市场中。\n2020年9月，英伟达宣布拟以400亿美元，从日本软件集团处收购英国芯片设计商Arm，预计写下半导体行业最大的并购案。但这笔交易存有争议，目前还等待欧盟、英国、美国和中国等政府的批准。但2021年4月，英伟达则宣布进军数据中心CPU市场，发布Grace CPU处理器，也就是本文开头黄仁勋所讲的那一段话。（详见钛媒体App前文：《英国政府出手干预，英伟达400亿美元并购Arm交易生变》）\nCPU和GPU之外，英伟达还在布局DPU。2019年，英伟达宣布以69亿美元全现金的形式收购以色列网络芯片商迈络思（Mellanox），并最终将其拿下。而这笔英伟达有史以来规模最大的收购，黄仁勋最看重的就是迈络思在数据中心技术等方面独步天下的能力。2020年10月，英伟达首次推出了DPU — NVIDIA BlueField系列数据处理器。\n究其根本，一方面DPU更灵活安全，更重要的是，DPU可以解放CPU的算力，释放服务器的负载，并凭借低功耗显著降低综合成本，甚至还可以改善AI和机器学习应用的性能。\n据IDC统计，全球算力的需求每3.5个月就会翻一倍，远远超过了当前算力的增长速度。在此驱动下，全球计算、存储和网络基础设施也在发生根本转变：一些数据量过大的工作负载，过多占用CPU资源，与之协同作战的各种“X”PU芯片便应运而生，GPU、FPGA等芯片之外，DPU就是下一个“X”PU。\n业内人士就此做了一个形象的比喻，网络就像造马路，以前1G 10G时代马路已经不够宽了，车子越来越多，为了平衡压力，通过增加红绿灯和投入更多的交警来更高的协调资源，这样已经让原来的效率提高很多，但是仍然不够。必须第一扩大马路，这就是带宽增加，但是马路从2道变为4道，仅仅依靠红绿灯和有限的交警还是会堵塞，但是我们不能无限增加交警，这就需要马路能更加智能，帮助解决拥堵。\n章高男指出，大量的网络管理在CPU里面，占据了容器能力，而DPU则是将服务器智能提供空间能力，大量虚拟化空间可以提高算力需求。\n随着2020年，DPU的名声超出了竞争对手英特尔所推出的基础设施处理器(IPU)和SmartNIC，也让每个对数据中心业务虎视眈眈的企业都要在这个领域分一杯羹。DPU成为了各大芯片巨头、初创公司争相研发的新赛道，国产DPU现在几乎处在百花齐放的状态，红杉、高瓴创投、鼎晖、软银中国都开始入场。\n今年4月，天眼查数据显示，国产DPU芯片供应商“云豹智能”完成腾讯投资、红杉资本、耀途资本等联合的天使轮融资；5月末，芯启源完成数亿元Pre-A轮融资，投资方包括软银中国、浦东科创集团等；7月27日，DPU芯片研发商“中科驭数”完成华泰创新领投的数亿元A轮融资；8月30日，DPU芯片研发商星云智联宣布完成了数亿元天使轮融资，由高瓴创投领投，鼎晖VGC、华登国际中国基金参与跟投；9月初，IDG资本豪掷“云脉芯联”天使轮融资项目。\n“DPU有可能成为继CPU和GPU之后的第三颗算力芯片，但从结构上来看，DPU会更异构、也更专用。”鄢贵海在接受钛媒体App等采访时表示，DPU产生的背景是智能时代数据爆发导致的端-边-云一体化趋势带来的对计算延迟、数据安全、资源虚拟化需求。CPU对这些非业务性负载已不堪重负，迫切需要一个理想的对象来分担这些计算负载。\n头豹研究院则预测，中国DPU市场规模预计将在2025年达到37.4亿美元。全球DPU市场规模2025年预计将达到135.7亿美元。同时报告也指出，数据流通是DPU最大的应用市场，其中裸金属服务其对DPU存在刚需。DPU在电信市场的应用主要为边缘计算场景，渗透率不足5%。针对智能驾驶领域的DPU仍在探索阶段，预计在2023年DPU才有望布局在智能驾驶领域。\n中国DPU市场规模，2020-2025年预测，来源：头豹研究院\n鄢贵海指出，CPU的性能从5-10年前每年30%的增幅，到三年前大概只有每年不到3%的性能增幅。而网络带宽每年依旧还有35%左右的增长。\n以中泰证券为例，当时该公司遇到的挑战是，交易报单合规检查太慢，需要提高交易效率。于是，中科驭数与中泰证券、上交所技术有限责任公司联合研发了一套极速风控系统解决方案，来加速这一流程。中科驭数相继研发了超低时延智能网卡、数据计算加速卡等多套产品和解决方案，主要面向高带宽、低时延、数据密集型等场景。该公司今年已经实现千万级别的季度营收。中科驭数的下一代DPU芯片预计将于2021年底完成设计，预计可处理高达200G网络带宽数据。\n不过，DPU市场虽然火爆，但概念较新，未知更多，投资风险也会更大。\n芯启源CEO卢笙指出，目前DPU细分赛道的壁垒还是相对较高的，除了技术壁垒之外，还有市场的壁垒，需要客户不断迭代，尤其是配合开源软件不断升级去适配客户快速变化的软硬件环境。因此VC（风险投资）在投资之前，一定要先认可赛道，且有足够的耐心。他强调，投资人需要对市场进行不断地观察并调整判断，现在谁也无法预料未来DPU发展前景。\n也有媒体认为，当英伟达进入新开辟的CPU和DPU战场，对中国的GPU厂商或许是个利好，尤其英伟达依然花大量精力放在400亿美元收购英国芯片设计商Arm公司的并购交易上，这对新创GPU企业而言，可能是个追赶的时机。\n正如章高男对钛媒体App所说，“从逻辑上讲，门槛不高的事情通常稀缺性都不高。（芯片半导体赛道）有些事情是很难的，需要长时间投入，虽然是高风险，但总归得有人去做。这是真正对国家有利的长远投入，其实应该鼓励投资。否则的话，这些需要长时间投入的难事，谁都不去做，你永远上不了台阶。”\n章高男强调，虽然风险投资肯定要追求回报，但他认为，在整个资金分配合理情况下，拿出一部分投资半导体赛道的初创企业，不仅有极强的社会意义，更是某种长期价值投资的重要体现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that this summer the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, children returning to school, and street corner coffee shops reopening. But things didn't go as planned. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery came to a sudden halt in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data provided the most direct warning signal.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, marking the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, as the spreading Delta variant of the virus and rising inflation worried Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, the United States had reported 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, 1,560 new deaths, and an average of more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than the peak of last winter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>\"Uncertainty and anxiety are back.\"</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, offices and schools in the United States have postponed their reopening, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies of all sizes have abandoned plans to reopen their offices, with some even postponing the return date until 2022.</b></p><p>Official data shows that by mid-July, the number of tourists visiting Hawaii had recovered to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019. However, the pace slowed down starting in August, and in the last seven days of August, the average number of daily tourist arrivals decreased by 34% compared to 2019.</p><p>Data from market research firm TOP shows that cinema attendance dropped by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Makeover and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools should have been an important moment for the economy. With about a quarter of households having school-aged children, reliable childcare can get many Americans, especially women, back into the workforce. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under 12 may make some parents reluctant to leave home to work.</p><p><b>Meier stated, \"The uncertainty and anxiety we experienced last year are back, and this uncertainty is enough to suppress labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered their US economic growth forecasts.</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant will not push the United States back into recession, but the loss of growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, keep many job markets on the sidelines, and discourage businesses from investing amid new uncertainties.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.7% and raised its unemployment rate forecast from 4.1% to 4.2%. This marks the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>In explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several key factors.<b>It is expected that due to the spread of the Delta variant of the virus, weakening government fiscal support, and a shift in demand from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, resulting in a more severe consumption situation than previously anticipated.</b></p><p>\"There appear to be far more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery in the service sector is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered its third-quarter US GDP forecast, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, while maintaining its fourth-quarter GDP forecast at 6.7%. After lowering its third-quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's full-year U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' lowered full-year growth forecast this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The downward expectation is mainly due to the fact that the momentum of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced its economic impact, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>US stocks have fallen for two consecutive days; a bigger test lies ahead.</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its biggest closing drop since August 18. The S&P 500 closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This marks the second consecutive day of declines for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, following the release of last Friday's far-below-expected non-farm payroll report. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to mitigate the decline in most US stock sectors. Both US stock and Treasury prices fell during the session, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since mid-July.</p><p>Analysts point out that amid the rampant Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the prospects for U.S. economic growth and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>As U.S. fiscal stimulus measures gradually withdraw, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits during the pandemic.<b>In addition to the cessation of pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional challenges to the US economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, the economic impact of the recent stimulus package is relatively limited compared to the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending—another short-term risk facing the market.</p><p>Meanwhile, US stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to raise government funds later this month by raising the debt ceiling, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that this summer the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, children returning to school, and street corner coffee shops reopening. But things didn't go as planned. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery came to a sudden halt in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data provided the most direct warning signal.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, marking the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, as the spreading Delta variant of the virus and rising inflation worried Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, the United States had reported 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, 1,560 new deaths, and an average of more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than the peak of last winter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>\"Uncertainty and anxiety are back.\"</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, offices and schools in the United States have postponed their reopening, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies of all sizes have abandoned plans to reopen their offices, with some even postponing the return date until 2022.</b></p><p>Official data shows that by mid-July, the number of tourists visiting Hawaii had recovered to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019. However, the pace slowed down starting in August, and in the last seven days of August, the average number of daily tourist arrivals decreased by 34% compared to 2019.</p><p>Data from market research firm TOP shows that cinema attendance dropped by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Makeover and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools should have been an important moment for the economy. With about a quarter of households having school-aged children, reliable childcare can get many Americans, especially women, back into the workforce. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under 12 may make some parents reluctant to leave home to work.</p><p><b>Meier stated, \"The uncertainty and anxiety we experienced last year are back, and this uncertainty is enough to suppress labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered their US economic growth forecasts.</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant will not push the United States back into recession, but the loss of growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, keep many job markets on the sidelines, and discourage businesses from investing amid new uncertainties.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.7% and raised its unemployment rate forecast from 4.1% to 4.2%. This marks the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>In explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several key factors.<b>It is expected that due to the spread of the Delta variant of the virus, weakening government fiscal support, and a shift in demand from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, resulting in a more severe consumption situation than previously anticipated.</b></p><p>\"There appear to be far more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery in the service sector is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered its third-quarter US GDP forecast, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, while maintaining its fourth-quarter GDP forecast at 6.7%. After lowering its third-quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's full-year U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' lowered full-year growth forecast this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The downward expectation is mainly due to the fact that the momentum of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced its economic impact, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>US stocks have fallen for two consecutive days; a bigger test lies ahead.</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its biggest closing drop since August 18. The S&P 500 closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This marks the second consecutive day of declines for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, following the release of last Friday's far-below-expected non-farm payroll report. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to mitigate the decline in most US stock sectors. Both US stock and Treasury prices fell during the session, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since mid-July.</p><p>Analysts point out that amid the rampant Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the prospects for U.S. economic growth and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>As U.S. fiscal stimulus measures gradually withdraw, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits during the pandemic.<b>In addition to the cessation of pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional challenges to the US economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, the economic impact of the recent stimulus package is relatively limited compared to the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending—another short-term risk facing the market.</p><p>Meanwhile, US stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to raise government funds later this month by raising the debt ceiling, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834684230,"gmtCreate":1629797562520,"gmtModify":1676530134416,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834684230","repostId":"1140946559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140946559","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1629785482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140946559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street optimists: The peak of the US pandemic is approaching, presenting opportunities to buy dips and restart trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140946559","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初","content":"<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages approximately $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the pandemic will be effectively controlled in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that have previously fallen sharply in August, rather than waiting until October. American optimists believe that as the number of cases declines in the areas where the initial Delta variant outbreak occurred in the United States, the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively controlled soon.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>According to statistics, the United States faced a new outbreak of the epidemic at the end of June, and recently, the average number of new cases per day in the United States has approached 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, the stocks of some offline business companies were heavily sold off. However, Andrew Slimmon, who manages approximately $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, holds the opposite view, believing that now is a good time to buy at the bottom.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients that they needed to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year, all sorts of economic problems arise, but in the end, they all get through them safely. Looking to the future, people will become more optimistic. This is a good sign for stocks that have been sold off due to the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interest rates may bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are concentrated in the stocks that have fallen the most in the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, and stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>Based on the above views, Slimmon is focusing on stocks that have fallen 20% or even 30% from their all-time peaks earlier this year. He has made large purchases of shares in casino, cruise ship, restaurant and theater companies, as well as retail real estate investment trusts.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, with most investors favoring defensive investment strategies. In addition, growth stocks (such as technology stocks that outperformed the broader market index during the COVID-19 pandemic) have outperformed their lower-value counterparts for three consecutive months, while small-cap stocks have fallen by about 60% from their all-time high in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also pointed out that the market is forward-looking, and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as technology stocks that are near record highs. \"I'm optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic will pass soon, and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October,\" Slimmon said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street optimists: The peak of the US pandemic is approaching, presenting opportunities to buy dips and restart trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street optimists: The peak of the US pandemic is approaching, presenting opportunities to buy dips and restart trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-24 14:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon, who manages approximately $7.5 billion in assets, believes that the new wave of the pandemic will be effectively controlled in the fourth quarter, and investors should start buying stocks that have previously fallen sharply in August, rather than waiting until October. American optimists believe that as the number of cases declines in the areas where the initial Delta variant outbreak occurred in the United States, the number of new cases in other parts of the country will also be effectively controlled soon.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">New York times</a>According to statistics, the United States faced a new outbreak of the epidemic at the end of June, and recently, the average number of new cases per day in the United States has approached 150,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7a7969baf4d258fded3fd6a80f2275\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, the stocks of some offline business companies were heavily sold off. However, Andrew Slimmon, who manages approximately $7.5 billion in assets at Morgan Stanley, holds the opposite view, believing that now is a good time to buy at the bottom.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Slimmon told his clients that they needed to prepare for the upcoming economic recovery:</p><p>Every year, all sorts of economic problems arise, but in the end, they all get through them safely. Looking to the future, people will become more optimistic. This is a good sign for stocks that have been sold off due to the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interest rates may bottom out in the coming months and recover in the fourth quarter. Slimmon believes that trading opportunities are concentrated in the stocks that have fallen the most in the past period, namely cyclical stocks, energy stocks, and stocks that have resumed trading.</p><p>Based on the above views, Slimmon is focusing on stocks that have fallen 20% or even 30% from their all-time peaks earlier this year. He has made large purchases of shares in casino, cruise ship, restaurant and theater companies, as well as retail real estate investment trusts.</p><p>This view runs counter to recent market sentiment, with most investors favoring defensive investment strategies. In addition, growth stocks (such as technology stocks that outperformed the broader market index during the COVID-19 pandemic) have outperformed their lower-value counterparts for three consecutive months, while small-cap stocks have fallen by about 60% from their all-time high in mid-March.</p><p>However, he also pointed out that the market is forward-looking, and investors should not continue to chase stocks such as technology stocks that are near record highs. \"I'm optimistic that the COVID-19 pandemic will pass soon, and investors should start buying these stocks in August instead of waiting until October,\" Slimmon said.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140946559","content_text":"在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon认为，新一波疫情将在第四季度得到有效控制，投资者应该在8月就开始买入此前跌幅较大的股票，而不是等到10月。\n\n美国乐观派认为，随着美国最初的Delta变异株爆发地区的病例数下降，该国其他地区的新增病例数也将在不久后得到有效控制。\n据纽约时报统计数据，6月底美国面临了新一轮疫情的爆发，而近日以来，美国的平均每日新增病例数已接近15万例。\n\n出于对新冠疫情的担忧，一些线下业务公司的股票遭到大举抛售。然而在摩根士丹利管理约75亿美元资产的Andrew Slimmon却持相反的意见，他认为此时正是抄底的好时候。\n据彭博，Slimmon向他的客户表示，需要为即将到来的经济复苏做好准备：\n\n 每年都会出现各式各样的经济问题，最终都会安然度过。展望未来，人们会变得更加乐观。对于因新冠疫情卷土重来而遭抛售的股票来说，这是个好兆头。利率可能在未来几个月触底，并在第四季度恢复。\n\nSlimmon认为，交易机会集中在过去一段时间以来跌幅最大的股票上，即周期性股票、能源股票、重新复牌的股票。\n基于上述观点，Slimmon关注的是较今年早些时候的历史峰值下跌了20%甚至30%的股票，他大笔购入了赌场、游轮、餐厅和剧院公司的股份，以及零售房地产投资信托基金。\n这一看法与近期的市场情绪背道而驰，大部分的投资者偏爱防守型投资策略。此外，成长股（例如在新冠疫情期间表现优于大盘指数的科技股）已经连续3个月跑赢了价值较低的同类股票，而小盘股已从3月中旬的历史高位下跌了约60%。\n不过他也指出，市场具有前瞻性，投资者不应继续追逐科技股等接近创纪录高位的股票。”我很乐观，新冠疫情很快将会过去，投资者应该在8月就开始买入这些股票，而不是等到10月”，Slimmon称。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>According to Ricardo, author of \"Currency Wars,\" accurately predicting when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be is an impossible task for anyone. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Before we knew it, a new front in the currency war had loomed on the horizon. Most observers had not yet noticed it because the situation had not yet evolved to the point where the parties involved were openly manipulating monetary policy without restraint, and that day was not far off, perhaps as early as the beginning of 2022.</p><p>This conclusion comes from the renowned investor and economist Jim Rickards. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experiences—he worked on Wall Street for decades, starting as a lawyer, serving as legal counsel to a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial crisis, participating in the Federal Reserve-led rescue operation that prevented major damage to the U.S. financial system, and after entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare advisor to the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to a wide range of investors as the author of best-selling financial books, with his 2012 book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, enjoying particularly widespread influence. The aforementioned warning issued by such a currency war expert is naturally not to be taken lightly. In a recently published article, Ricardo elaborates on his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, the world is likely to experience a major market disruption, resulting in a sharp rise in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies. In this situation, the United States will suffer a double blow: in addition to the pain caused by market disruption, a sharp rise in the dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related jobs. In this situation, the US Treasury Department will most likely take action to weaken the dollar, and the currency war will thus begin.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic landscape on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is that since 2010, the world has been engaged in a hidden, low-intensity currency war—after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, then-US President Obama began to weaken the dollar in order to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that a weaker dollar will inevitably hurt the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they clearly don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its objective merits. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the US economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world can remain unaffected.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new recession. This time it was Europe that was unlucky; the United States and other economies around the world did not suffer much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that, around the same time, gold prices surged to all-time highs, and the euro exchange rate also surged. As for the US economy, needless to say, it received much-needed support as a result.</p><p>Only after that did the United States begin to show goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the euro-dollar exchange rate had dropped to $1.05 per euro. The Americans' assessment at the time was that their economy had become strong enough to withstand the impact of a weaker euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to maneuver and drive the Eurozone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar cross-rate has largely fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war is not necessarily limited to the fact that both participants or all parties are fighting blindly, causing drastic fluctuations in cross-exchange rates and extreme valuations. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners—in other words, war can still break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, while the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar soon as part of its economic rescue plan, the dollar will initially experience a strong rally in the short term. Why is that?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the matter is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department currently do not truly understand the U.S. economy, or more precisely, they do not know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As is well known, the 6.5% growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was lower than widely expected, but the real economic situation is even worse than the numbers suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which read 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% in June, while it is well known that the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that the growth prospects were significantly weakened in the short three months of the second quarter. This also shows that if economic growth was relatively strong in April and May, then the actual performance in the last month, June, was actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This clearly makes people increasingly worried about the upcoming third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, in addition to the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time also have many worrying aspects. For example, imports are booming because Americans are freely using government stimulus checks.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which also illustrates that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far worse than that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply have no appetite to eat much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to worsen.</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months, starting in October 2020, private sector income grew virtually zero. Seeing these things alone is terrifying, but considering that government subsidies that support personal income are expiring one after another makes one inevitably more pessimistic about the future.</p><p>The disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered the countdown. The order prohibiting landlords from evicting tenants is only a few dozen days away, and it has also been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans have expired. In conclusion, a new plan to distribute checks on a large scale is unlikely to emerge in the short term.</p><p>Now that the government's wave of cash distribution has reached its final stage, and at the same time, personal income is stagnating and exports are declining, what can be expected to continue to grow in the US GDP in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November, when the third-quarter GDP report is released, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is performing. Furthermore, by then they will most likely have already experienced several consecutive months of bad news regarding inflation and employment data.</p><p>The trouble is that by then it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn. Furthermore, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats and the White House will be in complete panic, and then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury Department do whatever it takes to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic behind the dollar's weakness in 2022. So why did the US dollar show strength before this?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is already underway. Crises like this certainly don't happen overnight; it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how serious the situation has become.</p><p>Here are some warning signs of global financial stress worth noting:</p><p>—Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. This does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but rather that the banking systems of these countries urgently need to obtain US dollars. In order to exchange them for US dollars, they are willing to painfully sell US Treasury bonds. This reluctant action shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>—Some specific euro futures curves have inverted slightly, forming a so-called spot premium. This indicates that banks and large financial institutions expect the Eurozone's interest rate trend to be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy is likely to experience a recession in the long term.</p><p>—Since March, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and has fallen significantly. This suggests that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investments out of fear, and they expect future economic growth to slow, easing inflationary pressures and even potentially leading to a recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis truly arrives, global investors will inevitably desperately seek safety, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly at that time.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>According to Ricardo, author of \"Currency Wars,\" accurately predicting when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be is an impossible task for anyone. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Before we knew it, a new front in the currency war had loomed on the horizon. Most observers had not yet noticed it because the situation had not yet evolved to the point where the parties involved were openly manipulating monetary policy without restraint, and that day was not far off, perhaps as early as the beginning of 2022.</p><p>This conclusion comes from the renowned investor and economist Jim Rickards. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experiences—he worked on Wall Street for decades, starting as a lawyer, serving as legal counsel to a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial crisis, participating in the Federal Reserve-led rescue operation that prevented major damage to the U.S. financial system, and after entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare advisor to the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to a wide range of investors as the author of best-selling financial books, with his 2012 book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, enjoying particularly widespread influence. The aforementioned warning issued by such a currency war expert is naturally not to be taken lightly. In a recently published article, Ricardo elaborates on his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, the world is likely to experience a major market disruption, resulting in a sharp rise in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies. In this situation, the United States will suffer a double blow: in addition to the pain caused by market disruption, a sharp rise in the dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related jobs. In this situation, the US Treasury Department will most likely take action to weaken the dollar, and the currency war will thus begin.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic landscape on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is that since 2010, the world has been engaged in a hidden, low-intensity currency war—after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, then-US President Obama began to weaken the dollar in order to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that a weaker dollar will inevitably hurt the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they clearly don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its objective merits. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the US economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world can remain unaffected.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new recession. This time it was Europe that was unlucky; the United States and other economies around the world did not suffer much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that, around the same time, gold prices surged to all-time highs, and the euro exchange rate also surged. As for the US economy, needless to say, it received much-needed support as a result.</p><p>Only after that did the United States begin to show goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the euro-dollar exchange rate had dropped to $1.05 per euro. The Americans' assessment at the time was that their economy had become strong enough to withstand the impact of a weaker euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to maneuver and drive the Eurozone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar cross-rate has largely fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war is not necessarily limited to the fact that both participants or all parties are fighting blindly, causing drastic fluctuations in cross-exchange rates and extreme valuations. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners—in other words, war can still break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, while the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar soon as part of its economic rescue plan, the dollar will initially experience a strong rally in the short term. Why is that?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the matter is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department currently do not truly understand the U.S. economy, or more precisely, they do not know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As is well known, the 6.5% growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was lower than widely expected, but the real economic situation is even worse than the numbers suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which read 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% in June, while it is well known that the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that the growth prospects were significantly weakened in the short three months of the second quarter. This also shows that if economic growth was relatively strong in April and May, then the actual performance in the last month, June, was actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This clearly makes people increasingly worried about the upcoming third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, in addition to the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time also have many worrying aspects. For example, imports are booming because Americans are freely using government stimulus checks.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which also illustrates that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far worse than that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply have no appetite to eat much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to worsen.</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months, starting in October 2020, private sector income grew virtually zero. Seeing these things alone is terrifying, but considering that government subsidies that support personal income are expiring one after another makes one inevitably more pessimistic about the future.</p><p>The disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered the countdown. The order prohibiting landlords from evicting tenants is only a few dozen days away, and it has also been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans have expired. In conclusion, a new plan to distribute checks on a large scale is unlikely to emerge in the short term.</p><p>Now that the government's wave of cash distribution has reached its final stage, and at the same time, personal income is stagnating and exports are declining, what can be expected to continue to grow in the US GDP in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November, when the third-quarter GDP report is released, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is performing. Furthermore, by then they will most likely have already experienced several consecutive months of bad news regarding inflation and employment data.</p><p>The trouble is that by then it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn. Furthermore, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats and the White House will be in complete panic, and then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury Department do whatever it takes to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic behind the dollar's weakness in 2022. So why did the US dollar show strength before this?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is already underway. Crises like this certainly don't happen overnight; it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how serious the situation has become.</p><p>Here are some warning signs of global financial stress worth noting:</p><p>—Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. This does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but rather that the banking systems of these countries urgently need to obtain US dollars. In order to exchange them for US dollars, they are willing to painfully sell US Treasury bonds. This reluctant action shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>—Some specific euro futures curves have inverted slightly, forming a so-called spot premium. This indicates that banks and large financial institutions expect the Eurozone's interest rate trend to be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy is likely to experience a recession in the long term.</p><p>—Since March, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and has fallen significantly. This suggests that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investments out of fear, and they expect future economic growth to slow, easing inflationary pressures and even potentially leading to a recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis truly arrives, global investors will inevitably desperately seek safety, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly at that time.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835257533,"gmtCreate":1629723694922,"gmtModify":1676530111545,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835257533","repostId":"1145459282","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832049713,"gmtCreate":1629548892632,"gmtModify":1676530069184,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"555","listText":"555","text":"555","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832049713","repostId":"2161422746","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836973670,"gmtCreate":1629450537690,"gmtModify":1676530045407,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836973670","repostId":"2160071811","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831981160,"gmtCreate":1629279719750,"gmtModify":1676529989266,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831981160","repostId":"1147839184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147839184","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1629262210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147839184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 12:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147839184","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，","content":"<p>Overnight, the US released retail sales data, and all three major US stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey released a report stating that the overnight data does not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales figures for May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and lockdowns that occurred earlier in the pandemic, indicating that American consumers are choosing to stay at home and reduce spending—consistent with a sharp drop in last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Furthermore, surveys of individual categories showed the largest slowdown in growth for non-essential consumer goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, which may also reflect the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Financial reports released yesterday showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production growth in July was mainly driven by 11.2% growth in the automobile and auto parts manufacturing sector, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined to its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p>In conclusion, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, \"With lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of Delta virus mutation dragging down service consumption, our economists may revise their growth assumptions for the second half of the year, although we still expect the Delta variant to have no substantial economic impact on the United States given ample vaccine supply and relatively relaxed COVID-19 policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The statement is even worse: Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer, commenting on the retail data, emphasized that although she expects retail sales to rise slightly in August, \"downside risks remain.\" Spending by non-store retailers should rebound, but service spending will weaken—travel spending has fallen significantly, which seems consistent with the increase in COVID-19 cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices, \"something we've been emphasizing for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also pointed out, \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending meant that real consumer spending we tracked grew by only 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting this data into its GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy slowed down in the third quarter,\" and currently expects economic growth of only 4.5% following the release of the retail sales report, lower than the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"The Delta variant has already damaged the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy,\" said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth. \"This will be a long-term problem and will cause some market volatility.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 12:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Overnight, the US released retail sales data, and all three major US stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey released a report stating that the overnight data does not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales figures for May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and lockdowns that occurred earlier in the pandemic, indicating that American consumers are choosing to stay at home and reduce spending—consistent with a sharp drop in last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Furthermore, surveys of individual categories showed the largest slowdown in growth for non-essential consumer goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, which may also reflect the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Financial reports released yesterday showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production growth in July was mainly driven by 11.2% growth in the automobile and auto parts manufacturing sector, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined to its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p>In conclusion, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, \"With lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of Delta virus mutation dragging down service consumption, our economists may revise their growth assumptions for the second half of the year, although we still expect the Delta variant to have no substantial economic impact on the United States given ample vaccine supply and relatively relaxed COVID-19 policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The statement is even worse: Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer, commenting on the retail data, emphasized that although she expects retail sales to rise slightly in August, \"downside risks remain.\" Spending by non-store retailers should rebound, but service spending will weaken—travel spending has fallen significantly, which seems consistent with the increase in COVID-19 cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices, \"something we've been emphasizing for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also pointed out, \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending meant that real consumer spending we tracked grew by only 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting this data into its GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy slowed down in the third quarter,\" and currently expects economic growth of only 4.5% following the release of the retail sales report, lower than the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"The Delta variant has already damaged the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy,\" said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth. \"This will be a long-term problem and will cause some market volatility.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147839184","content_text":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，但7月份美国零售销售下降了1.1%，降幅超过预期。值得注意的是，这种下降没有伴随疫情早期出现过的出行限制和关闭措施，这表明美国消费者选择呆在家里，减少支出——这与上周密歇根消费者信心调查(UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey)的大幅下降一致。此外，对个别类别的调查显示，非必需消费品(如电子产品和电器)以及非实体零售店的增速放缓幅度最大，这或许也反映出一些失业救济即将到期。消费者领头羊沃尔玛和家得宝昨日公布的财报显示，消费者行为正在放缓。\n在供应方面，7月份工业生产增长，主要受汽车和零部件制造业增长11.2%的推动，同时企业库存也有所增加。受当前销售和预期销售成分的推动，建筑商信心也下降，达到2020年7月以来的最低水平，尽管未来销售预期保持不变。\n综上所述，高盛策略师写道，“7月份低于预期的零售销售和汽车产量，加上Delta病毒变异越来越可能拖累服务消费，我们的经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设，尽管我们仍然预计，在疫苗供应充足和相对宽松的新冠政策的背景下，Delta变种不会对美国产生实质性的经济影响。”\n不仅是高盛，但美国银行的说法更糟：美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔•迈耶(Michelle Meyer)在对零售数据发表评论时强调，尽管她预计8月份零售额会出现小幅增长，但“仍存在下行风险”。非商店零售商的支出应该会反弹，但服务支出将会减弱——旅行支出明显回落，这似乎与新冠病例的增加相一致。与此类似，密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心调查在8月初大幅下降，因为消费者对新冠肺炎病例增加和价格高企表示担忧，“我们几个月来一直在强调这一点。”\n迈耶还指出：“在对更高的价格进行调整后，名义支出的疲软使我们在第三季度追踪到的实际消费支出仅增长1.5%，第二季度的实际消费增长12.3%。”将该数据放到GDP的预测模型里，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，目前在零售销售报告发布后经济增速预期仅为 4.5%，低于该银行官方预测的7%。\n\nCIBC Private Wealth 的首席投资官 David Donabedian 表示：“Delta 变体已经打击了普通美国人的信心，因此我们需要关注它对经济的连锁反应。” “这将是一个长期问题，将会导致市场出现一些波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839057313,"gmtCreate":1629110261732,"gmtModify":1676529933269,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"omg","listText":"omg","text":"omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839057313","repostId":"2159241181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830939392,"gmtCreate":1628998688116,"gmtModify":1676529907596,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830939392","repostId":"1168954704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897580564,"gmtCreate":1628942238258,"gmtModify":1676529897402,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897580564","repostId":"1121247469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894786105,"gmtCreate":1628857486107,"gmtModify":1676529876355,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894786105","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit new highs during the session. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while new energy-related sectors declined for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In response, JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant, and value stocks will rise sharply, outpacing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>US Treasury yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and are expected to open up upside potential for the remainder of the year.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Given<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor positions, signs of Delta virus receding, and normalization of bond-stock correlation.</b>We remain cautious about the risk of a recent market correction. We are particularly optimistic about cyclical and reflationary market sectors, and are cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields.<b>From the perspective of investors' position distribution</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions have soared, the average is the best indicator. Moreover, although both major banking institution brokerages showed record levels of total hedge fund exposure, retail investors are clearly still putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Putting the facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that position levels will continue to rise, he said that current positions are still near the average level compared to the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta coefficients (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (such as insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the overall market, separating price changes caused by individual risks from overall market volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Admittedly, the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan Chase points out a more important point: these indicators are close to historical averages—around 50%, while most historical corrections have occurred when these indicators are above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators remain at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not experience a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant.<b>Only the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of the risk of soaring US Treasury yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not constitute risk, what is risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or be related to reduced bond purchases, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between 10-year bond prices and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovich wrote that in July, the technology sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of -3. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose by an average of 1%, technology stocks rose by 4%, and financial stocks fell by 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and now all stock sectors show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weakness in Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, and communications) has pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks up from negative territory in the second quarter to around 1.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering current position levels, volatility, and other factors, we estimate that such an event would occur if stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries suffered a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened and the recent strong performance of both the stock and bond markets (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are performing well, and U.S. Treasury yields are rebounding), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovich points out that investors can hedge risk by reducing the amount of time they hold bonds and stocks, which may, to some extent, trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks, thus further illustrating that the risk of a large-scale sell-off in the stock market is not significant.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the risks of the Delta virus</b></p><p>Since the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else could cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovich stated that the main factor hindering the rise of risk assets in recent months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"the mortality rate of the Delta outbreak is low among vaccinated countries, and investors should be reassured, and this is very likely the last wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the baseline number of infections (the average number of people infected by patients who begin to show symptoms at a certain point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Therefore, positions are at an average level, the risk of reduction has been controlled, and the Delta outbreak is subsiding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovative stocks.</p><p>Although these sectors experienced a major correction at the beginning of the year, JPMorgan Chase believes there will be another round of decline. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>Although these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovich believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will increase and amplify further, involving various interdependent issues such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Federal Reserve continues to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, bullish expectations will remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit new highs during the session. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while new energy-related sectors declined for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In response, JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant, and value stocks will rise sharply, outpacing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>US Treasury yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and are expected to open up upside potential for the remainder of the year.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Given<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor positions, signs of Delta virus receding, and normalization of bond-stock correlation.</b>We remain cautious about the risk of a recent market correction. We are particularly optimistic about cyclical and reflationary market sectors, and are cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields.<b>From the perspective of investors' position distribution</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions have soared, the average is the best indicator. Moreover, although both major banking institution brokerages showed record levels of total hedge fund exposure, retail investors are clearly still putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Putting the facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that position levels will continue to rise, he said that current positions are still near the average level compared to the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta coefficients (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (such as insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the overall market, separating price changes caused by individual risks from overall market volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Admittedly, the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan Chase points out a more important point: these indicators are close to historical averages—around 50%, while most historical corrections have occurred when these indicators are above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators remain at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not experience a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant.<b>Only the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of the risk of soaring US Treasury yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not constitute risk, what is risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or be related to reduced bond purchases, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between 10-year bond prices and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovich wrote that in July, the technology sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of -3. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose by an average of 1%, technology stocks rose by 4%, and financial stocks fell by 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and now all stock sectors show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weakness in Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, and communications) has pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks up from negative territory in the second quarter to around 1.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering current position levels, volatility, and other factors, we estimate that such an event would occur if stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries suffered a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened and the recent strong performance of both the stock and bond markets (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are performing well, and U.S. Treasury yields are rebounding), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovich points out that investors can hedge risk by reducing the amount of time they hold bonds and stocks, which may, to some extent, trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks, thus further illustrating that the risk of a large-scale sell-off in the stock market is not significant.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the risks of the Delta virus</b></p><p>Since the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else could cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovich stated that the main factor hindering the rise of risk assets in recent months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"the mortality rate of the Delta outbreak is low among vaccinated countries, and investors should be reassured, and this is very likely the last wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the baseline number of infections (the average number of people infected by patients who begin to show symptoms at a certain point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Therefore, positions are at an average level, the risk of reduction has been controlled, and the Delta outbreak is subsiding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovative stocks.</p><p>Although these sectors experienced a major correction at the beginning of the year, JPMorgan Chase believes there will be another round of decline. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>Although these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovich believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will increase and amplify further, involving various interdependent issues such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Federal Reserve continues to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, bullish expectations will remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895476976,"gmtCreate":1628770239095,"gmtModify":1676529848211,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895476976","repostId":"2158232300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896741271,"gmtCreate":1628607239093,"gmtModify":1676529796343,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896741271","repostId":"2158420658","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2158420658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628581980,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158420658?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 15:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reports indicate that NVIDIA RTX 3060Ti/3060 GPU supply is insufficient this month, leading to delivery delays.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158420658","media":"IT之家","summary":"据博板堂，英伟达的内部消息表明，本月的RTX3060Ti以及RTX3060两个系列的GPU可能跳票，预计8月份后半月供应量可能会更加紧缺。据称，英伟达上述两款GPU型号的采购计划目前已无法按照板卡商所...","content":"<p><div>According to Bobantang, internal sources at Nvidia indicate that the release of the RTX 3060Ti and RTX 3060 GPU series this month may be delayed, and supply is expected to become even tighter in the second half of August. It is reported that Nvidia's procurement plan for the two GPU models mentioned above is currently unable to deliver according to the orders placed by board manufacturers. It has been confirmed that the GPU deliveries scheduled for August will be postponed, but there is no accurate information on when the delay will last, and the reasons for the delay will not be disclosed to the public. IT Home has learned that there were previous reports that NVIDIA RTX...</p><p><a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108102039241076.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reports indicate that NVIDIA RTX 3060Ti/3060 GPU supply is insufficient this month, leading to delivery delays.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReports indicate that NVIDIA RTX 3060Ti/3060 GPU supply is insufficient this month, leading to delivery delays.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IT之家</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 15:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to Bobantang, internal sources at Nvidia indicate that the release of the RTX 3060Ti and RTX 3060 GPU series this month may be delayed, and supply is expected to become even tighter in the second half of August. It is reported that Nvidia's procurement plan for the two GPU models mentioned above is currently unable to deliver according to the orders placed by board manufacturers. It has been confirmed that the GPU deliveries scheduled for August will be postponed, but there is no accurate information on when the delay will last, and the reasons for the delay will not be disclosed to the public. IT Home has learned that there were previous reports that NVIDIA RTX...</p><p><a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108102039241076.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108102039241076.html\">IT之家</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202108102039241076.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158420658","content_text":"据博板堂，英伟达的内部消息表明，本月的 RTX 3060Ti 以及 RTX 3060 两个系列的 GPU 可能跳票，预计 8 月份后半月供应量可能会更加紧缺。\n　　据称，英伟达上述两款 GPU 型号的采购计划目前已无法按照板卡商所下订单进行交货，确定 8 月份的 GPU 交货量将被延期，但具体延时到什么时候还没有准确信息，而且延期的原因也不对外公布。　　IT之家了解到，此前有消息称英伟达 RTX 30 系列可于 7 月底或 8 月初大量到货，但目前来看多个厂商上调了 RTX 30 系列显卡的出货价，再加上小币种加密货币的崛起和以太坊的回温，导致显卡依然紧缺。（文章来源：IT之家）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898580576,"gmtCreate":1628510321395,"gmtModify":1703507281618,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898580576","repostId":"1140257089","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891144816,"gmtCreate":1628358818535,"gmtModify":1703505379719,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578895363297107","idStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891144816","repostId":"1167785569","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":889800809,"gmtCreate":1631122579301,"gmtModify":1676530474613,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889800809","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Multiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had hoped that this summer the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, children returning to school, and street corner coffee shops reopening. But things didn't go as planned. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery came to a sudden halt in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data provided the most direct warning signal.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, marking the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, as the spreading Delta variant of the virus and rising inflation worried Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, the United States had reported 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, 1,560 new deaths, and an average of more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than the peak of last winter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>\"Uncertainty and anxiety are back.\"</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, offices and schools in the United States have postponed their reopening, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies of all sizes have abandoned plans to reopen their offices, with some even postponing the return date until 2022.</b></p><p>Official data shows that by mid-July, the number of tourists visiting Hawaii had recovered to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019. However, the pace slowed down starting in August, and in the last seven days of August, the average number of daily tourist arrivals decreased by 34% compared to 2019.</p><p>Data from market research firm TOP shows that cinema attendance dropped by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Makeover and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools should have been an important moment for the economy. With about a quarter of households having school-aged children, reliable childcare can get many Americans, especially women, back into the workforce. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under 12 may make some parents reluctant to leave home to work.</p><p><b>Meier stated, \"The uncertainty and anxiety we experienced last year are back, and this uncertainty is enough to suppress labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered their US economic growth forecasts.</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant will not push the United States back into recession, but the loss of growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, keep many job markets on the sidelines, and discourage businesses from investing amid new uncertainties.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.7% and raised its unemployment rate forecast from 4.1% to 4.2%. This marks the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>In explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several key factors.<b>It is expected that due to the spread of the Delta variant of the virus, weakening government fiscal support, and a shift in demand from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, resulting in a more severe consumption situation than previously anticipated.</b></p><p>\"There appear to be far more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery in the service sector is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered its third-quarter US GDP forecast, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, while maintaining its fourth-quarter GDP forecast at 6.7%. After lowering its third-quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's full-year U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' lowered full-year growth forecast this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The downward expectation is mainly due to the fact that the momentum of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced its economic impact, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>US stocks have fallen for two consecutive days; a bigger test lies ahead.</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its biggest closing drop since August 18. The S&P 500 closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This marks the second consecutive day of declines for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, following the release of last Friday's far-below-expected non-farm payroll report. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to mitigate the decline in most US stock sectors. Both US stock and Treasury prices fell during the session, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since mid-July.</p><p>Analysts point out that amid the rampant Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the prospects for U.S. economic growth and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>As U.S. fiscal stimulus measures gradually withdraw, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits during the pandemic.<b>In addition to the cessation of pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional challenges to the US economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, the economic impact of the recent stimulus package is relatively limited compared to the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending—another short-term risk facing the market.</p><p>Meanwhile, US stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to raise government funds later this month by raising the debt ceiling, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple indicators in the United States are sounding the alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had hoped that this summer the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, children returning to school, and street corner coffee shops reopening. But things didn't go as planned. With the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery came to a sudden halt in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the surprising non-farm payrolls data provided the most direct warning signal.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, marking the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years, as the spreading Delta variant of the virus and rising inflation worried Americans.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on September 7, 2021, the United States had reported 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the United States has averaged more than 161,000 new cases per day, 1,560 new deaths, and an average of more than 102,000 hospitalizations per day, only slightly lower than the peak of last winter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>\"Uncertainty and anxiety are back.\"</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, offices and schools in the United States have postponed their reopening, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Starting in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies of all sizes have abandoned plans to reopen their offices, with some even postponing the return date until 2022.</b></p><p>Official data shows that by mid-July, the number of tourists visiting Hawaii had recovered to near pre-pandemic levels, down only about 10% from the same period in 2019. However, the pace slowed down starting in August, and in the last seven days of August, the average number of daily tourist arrivals decreased by 34% compared to 2019.</p><p>Data from market research firm TOP shows that cinema attendance dropped by more than half at the end of August compared to the peak of the pandemic in mid-July. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Makeover and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online classes.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying that the reopening of schools should have been an important moment for the economy. With about a quarter of households having school-aged children, reliable childcare can get many Americans, especially women, back into the workforce. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under 12 may make some parents reluctant to leave home to work.</p><p><b>Meier stated, \"The uncertainty and anxiety we experienced last year are back, and this uncertainty is enough to suppress labor supply.\"</b></p><p><h2>Institutions have lowered their US economic growth forecasts.</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant will not push the United States back into recession, but the loss of growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, keep many job markets on the sidelines, and discourage businesses from investing amid new uncertainties.</p><p>In the report released this Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 5.7% and raised its unemployment rate forecast from 4.1% to 4.2%. This marks the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast for this year.</p><p>In explaining why they lowered their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several key factors.<b>It is expected that due to the spread of the Delta variant of the virus, weakening government fiscal support, and a shift in demand from goods to services, U.S. consumers may reduce spending, resulting in a more severe consumption situation than previously anticipated.</b></p><p>\"There appear to be far more obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future: the Delta variant is already putting pressure on growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery in the service sector is slowing down. These will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also significantly lowered its third-quarter US GDP forecast, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, while maintaining its fourth-quarter GDP forecast at 6.7%. After lowering its third-quarter GDP forecast, Morgan Stanley's full-year U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year is 5.6%, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' lowered full-year growth forecast this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The downward expectation is mainly due to the fact that the momentum of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the government's stimulus spending has reduced its economic impact, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer spending on large durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>US stocks have fallen for two consecutive days; a bigger test lies ahead.</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since August 19 and its biggest closing drop since August 18. The S&P 500 closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since August 27.</p><p>This marks the second consecutive day of declines for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, following the release of last Friday's far-below-expected non-farm payroll report. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to mitigate the decline in most US stock sectors. Both US stock and Treasury prices fell during the session, Treasury Bond yields rose, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since mid-July.</p><p>Analysts point out that amid the rampant Delta variant virus, the market is reassessing the prospects for U.S. economic growth and its impact on corporate profits.</p><p><b>As U.S. fiscal stimulus measures gradually withdraw, the U.S. economic recovery will face further tests.</b></p><p>This week, more than 7.5 million Americans will lose an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits during the pandemic.<b>In addition to the cessation of pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt increases have also brought additional challenges to the US economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that although the U.S. Congress seems likely to pass an infrastructure bill this fall, the economic impact of the recent stimulus package is relatively limited compared to the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Congress may vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending—another short-term risk facing the market.</p><p>Meanwhile, US stocks may also be affected by the debt ceiling increase this fall. The U.S. Congress needs to raise government funds later this month by raising the debt ceiling, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835240012,"gmtCreate":1629723743636,"gmtModify":1676530111553,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835240012","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>According to Ricardo, author of \"Currency Wars,\" accurately predicting when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be is an impossible task for anyone. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Before we knew it, a new front in the currency war had loomed on the horizon. Most observers had not yet noticed it because the situation had not yet evolved to the point where the parties involved were openly manipulating monetary policy without restraint, and that day was not far off, perhaps as early as the beginning of 2022.</p><p>This conclusion comes from the renowned investor and economist Jim Rickards. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experiences—he worked on Wall Street for decades, starting as a lawyer, serving as legal counsel to a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial crisis, participating in the Federal Reserve-led rescue operation that prevented major damage to the U.S. financial system, and after entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare advisor to the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to a wide range of investors as the author of best-selling financial books, with his 2012 book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, enjoying particularly widespread influence. The aforementioned warning issued by such a currency war expert is naturally not to be taken lightly. In a recently published article, Ricardo elaborates on his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, the world is likely to experience a major market disruption, resulting in a sharp rise in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies. In this situation, the United States will suffer a double blow: in addition to the pain caused by market disruption, a sharp rise in the dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related jobs. In this situation, the US Treasury Department will most likely take action to weaken the dollar, and the currency war will thus begin.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic landscape on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is that since 2010, the world has been engaged in a hidden, low-intensity currency war—after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, then-US President Obama began to weaken the dollar in order to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that a weaker dollar will inevitably hurt the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they clearly don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its objective merits. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the US economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world can remain unaffected.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new recession. This time it was Europe that was unlucky; the United States and other economies around the world did not suffer much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that, around the same time, gold prices surged to all-time highs, and the euro exchange rate also surged. As for the US economy, needless to say, it received much-needed support as a result.</p><p>Only after that did the United States begin to show goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the euro-dollar exchange rate had dropped to $1.05 per euro. The Americans' assessment at the time was that their economy had become strong enough to withstand the impact of a weaker euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to maneuver and drive the Eurozone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar cross-rate has largely fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war is not necessarily limited to the fact that both participants or all parties are fighting blindly, causing drastic fluctuations in cross-exchange rates and extreme valuations. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners—in other words, war can still break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, while the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar soon as part of its economic rescue plan, the dollar will initially experience a strong rally in the short term. Why is that?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the matter is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department currently do not truly understand the U.S. economy, or more precisely, they do not know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As is well known, the 6.5% growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was lower than widely expected, but the real economic situation is even worse than the numbers suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which read 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% in June, while it is well known that the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that the growth prospects were significantly weakened in the short three months of the second quarter. This also shows that if economic growth was relatively strong in April and May, then the actual performance in the last month, June, was actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This clearly makes people increasingly worried about the upcoming third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, in addition to the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time also have many worrying aspects. For example, imports are booming because Americans are freely using government stimulus checks.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which also illustrates that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far worse than that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply have no appetite to eat much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to worsen.</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months, starting in October 2020, private sector income grew virtually zero. Seeing these things alone is terrifying, but considering that government subsidies that support personal income are expiring one after another makes one inevitably more pessimistic about the future.</p><p>The disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered the countdown. The order prohibiting landlords from evicting tenants is only a few dozen days away, and it has also been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans have expired. In conclusion, a new plan to distribute checks on a large scale is unlikely to emerge in the short term.</p><p>Now that the government's wave of cash distribution has reached its final stage, and at the same time, personal income is stagnating and exports are declining, what can be expected to continue to grow in the US GDP in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November, when the third-quarter GDP report is released, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is performing. Furthermore, by then they will most likely have already experienced several consecutive months of bad news regarding inflation and employment data.</p><p>The trouble is that by then it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn. Furthermore, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats and the White House will be in complete panic, and then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury Department do whatever it takes to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic behind the dollar's weakness in 2022. So why did the US dollar show strength before this?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is already underway. Crises like this certainly don't happen overnight; it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how serious the situation has become.</p><p>Here are some warning signs of global financial stress worth noting:</p><p>—Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. This does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but rather that the banking systems of these countries urgently need to obtain US dollars. In order to exchange them for US dollars, they are willing to painfully sell US Treasury bonds. This reluctant action shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>—Some specific euro futures curves have inverted slightly, forming a so-called spot premium. This indicates that banks and large financial institutions expect the Eurozone's interest rate trend to be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy is likely to experience a recession in the long term.</p><p>—Since March, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and has fallen significantly. This suggests that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investments out of fear, and they expect future economic growth to slow, easing inflationary pressures and even potentially leading to a recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis truly arrives, global investors will inevitably desperately seek safety, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly at that time.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global liquidity crisis is unfolding, and a currency war is imminent?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>According to Ricardo, author of \"Currency Wars,\" accurately predicting when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be is an impossible task for anyone. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Before we knew it, a new front in the currency war had loomed on the horizon. Most observers had not yet noticed it because the situation had not yet evolved to the point where the parties involved were openly manipulating monetary policy without restraint, and that day was not far off, perhaps as early as the beginning of 2022.</p><p>This conclusion comes from the renowned investor and economist Jim Rickards. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experiences—he worked on Wall Street for decades, starting as a lawyer, serving as legal counsel to a hedge fund long-term asset management company during the Asian financial crisis, participating in the Federal Reserve-led rescue operation that prevented major damage to the U.S. financial system, and after entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare advisor to the Pentagon.</p><p>However, Rickards is best known to a wide range of investors as the author of best-selling financial books, with his 2012 book, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, enjoying particularly widespread influence. The aforementioned warning issued by such a currency war expert is naturally not to be taken lightly. In a recently published article, Ricardo elaborates on his views on this issue. The following is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, the world is likely to experience a major market disruption, resulting in a sharp rise in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies. In this situation, the United States will suffer a double blow: in addition to the pain caused by market disruption, a sharp rise in the dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related jobs. In this situation, the US Treasury Department will most likely take action to weaken the dollar, and the currency war will thus begin.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic landscape on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is that since 2010, the world has been engaged in a hidden, low-intensity currency war—after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, then-US President Obama began to weaken the dollar in order to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury are well aware that a weaker dollar will inevitably hurt the economic growth prospects of Europe and Japan, but they clearly don't care at all. Of course, this idea has its objective merits. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the US economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world can remain unaffected.</p><p>After the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and avoid a new recession. This time it was Europe that was unlucky; the United States and other economies around the world did not suffer much.</p><p><b>Temporary truce in currency wars</b></p><p>The American policy worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that, around the same time, gold prices surged to all-time highs, and the euro exchange rate also surged. As for the US economy, needless to say, it received much-needed support as a result.</p><p>Only after that did the United States begin to show goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the euro-dollar exchange rate had dropped to $1.05 per euro. The Americans' assessment at the time was that their economy had become strong enough to withstand the impact of a weaker euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to maneuver and drive the Eurozone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar cross-rate has largely fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the euro exchange rate against the dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, almost exactly the same as today, four years later.</p><p>Here, everyone must first understand that the so-called currency war is not necessarily limited to the fact that both participants or all parties are fighting blindly, causing drastic fluctuations in cross-exchange rates and extreme valuations. Currency wars also have relatively calm cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing its currency relative to its major trading partners—in other words, war can still break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, while the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar soon as part of its economic rescue plan, the dollar will initially experience a strong rally in the short term. Why is that?</p><p><b>A shaky recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the matter is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury Department currently do not truly understand the U.S. economy, or more precisely, they do not know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As is well known, the 6.5% growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter was lower than widely expected, but the real economic situation is even worse than the numbers suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which read 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% in June, while it is well known that the real economic growth rate in the second quarter was 6.5%. This means that the growth prospects were significantly weakened in the short three months of the second quarter. This also shows that if economic growth was relatively strong in April and May, then the actual performance in the last month, June, was actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This clearly makes people increasingly worried about the upcoming third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, in addition to the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time also have many worrying aspects. For example, imports are booming because Americans are freely using government stimulus checks.</p><p>But on the export side, the story is completely different, which also illustrates that the performance of many other economies in the world is actually far worse than that of the United States. In the simplest terms, many of these other economies are in such a bad situation that they simply have no appetite to eat much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to worsen.</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. For eight months, starting in October 2020, private sector income grew virtually zero. Seeing these things alone is terrifying, but considering that government subsidies that support personal income are expiring one after another makes one inevitably more pessimistic about the future.</p><p>The disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered the countdown. The order prohibiting landlords from evicting tenants is only a few dozen days away, and it has also been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans have expired. In conclusion, a new plan to distribute checks on a large scale is unlikely to emerge in the short term.</p><p>Now that the government's wave of cash distribution has reached its final stage, and at the same time, personal income is stagnating and exports are declining, what can be expected to continue to grow in the US GDP in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November, when the third-quarter GDP report is released, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is performing. Furthermore, by then they will most likely have already experienced several consecutive months of bad news regarding inflation and employment data.</p><p>The trouble is that by then it will be too late to find a way to stop the sharp economic downturn. Furthermore, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democrats and the White House will be in complete panic, and then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury Department do whatever it takes to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic behind the dollar's weakness in 2022. So why did the US dollar show strength before this?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is already underway. Crises like this certainly don't happen overnight; it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how serious the situation has become.</p><p>Here are some warning signs of global financial stress worth noting:</p><p>—Many governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond. This does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but rather that the banking systems of these countries urgently need to obtain US dollars. In order to exchange them for US dollars, they are willing to painfully sell US Treasury bonds. This reluctant action shows how serious their problems have become.</p><p>—Some specific euro futures curves have inverted slightly, forming a so-called spot premium. This indicates that banks and large financial institutions expect the Eurozone's interest rate trend to be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy is likely to experience a recession in the long term.</p><p>—Since March, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and has fallen significantly. This suggests that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investments out of fear, and they expect future economic growth to slow, easing inflationary pressures and even potentially leading to a recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when a global liquidity crisis will erupt and how severe it will be. However, everyone must acknowledge that all of the aforementioned trends have intensified since March, meaning that pressure is rapidly accumulating and a crisis is rapidly brewing, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis truly arrives, global investors will inevitably desperately seek safety, and the US dollar and gold will strengthen significantly at that time.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894786105,"gmtCreate":1628857486107,"gmtModify":1676529876355,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894786105","repostId":"1138393223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit new highs during the session. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while new energy-related sectors declined for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In response, JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant, and value stocks will rise sharply, outpacing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>US Treasury yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and are expected to open up upside potential for the remainder of the year.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Given<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor positions, signs of Delta virus receding, and normalization of bond-stock correlation.</b>We remain cautious about the risk of a recent market correction. We are particularly optimistic about cyclical and reflationary market sectors, and are cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields.<b>From the perspective of investors' position distribution</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions have soared, the average is the best indicator. Moreover, although both major banking institution brokerages showed record levels of total hedge fund exposure, retail investors are clearly still putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Putting the facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that position levels will continue to rise, he said that current positions are still near the average level compared to the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta coefficients (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (such as insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the overall market, separating price changes caused by individual risks from overall market volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Admittedly, the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan Chase points out a more important point: these indicators are close to historical averages—around 50%, while most historical corrections have occurred when these indicators are above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators remain at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not experience a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant.<b>Only the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of the risk of soaring US Treasury yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not constitute risk, what is risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or be related to reduced bond purchases, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between 10-year bond prices and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovich wrote that in July, the technology sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of -3. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose by an average of 1%, technology stocks rose by 4%, and financial stocks fell by 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and now all stock sectors show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weakness in Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, and communications) has pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks up from negative territory in the second quarter to around 1.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering current position levels, volatility, and other factors, we estimate that such an event would occur if stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries suffered a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened and the recent strong performance of both the stock and bond markets (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are performing well, and U.S. Treasury yields are rebounding), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovich points out that investors can hedge risk by reducing the amount of time they hold bonds and stocks, which may, to some extent, trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks, thus further illustrating that the risk of a large-scale sell-off in the stock market is not significant.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the risks of the Delta virus</b></p><p>Since the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else could cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovich stated that the main factor hindering the rise of risk assets in recent months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"the mortality rate of the Delta outbreak is low among vaccinated countries, and investors should be reassured, and this is very likely the last wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the baseline number of infections (the average number of people infected by patients who begin to show symptoms at a certain point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Therefore, positions are at an average level, the risk of reduction has been controlled, and the Delta outbreak is subsiding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovative stocks.</p><p>Although these sectors experienced a major correction at the beginning of the year, JPMorgan Chase believes there will be another round of decline. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>Although these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovich believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will increase and amplify further, involving various interdependent issues such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Federal Reserve continues to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, bullish expectations will remain unchanged.</p>","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will happen after US stocks continue to hit new highs? JPMorgan Chase argues from three aspects: Bullish!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港电讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit new highs during the session. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while new energy-related sectors declined for the second consecutive day.</p><p>In response, JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta variant, and value stocks will rise sharply, outpacing growth stocks. He believes that,<b><u>US Treasury yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and are expected to open up upside potential for the remainder of the year.</u></b></p><p>Kolanovic said:</p><p>\"Given<b>Strong earnings season, cautious investor positions, signs of Delta virus receding, and normalization of bond-stock correlation.</b>We remain cautious about the risk of a recent market correction. We are particularly optimistic about cyclical and reflationary market sectors, and are cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields.<b>From the perspective of investors' position distribution</b></p><p>Kolanovic, as always, believes that no matter how high positions have soared, the average is the best indicator. Moreover, although both major banking institution brokerages showed record levels of total hedge fund exposure, retail investors are clearly still putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Putting the facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that position levels will continue to rise, he said that current positions are still near the average level compared to the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta coefficients (expressed in percentiles) for broad hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and volatility-targeted funds (such as insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).</p><p>The beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the overall market, separating price changes caused by individual risks from overall market volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Admittedly, the increased exposure of these funds this year has certainly helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan Chase points out a more important point: these indicators are close to historical averages—around 50%, while most historical corrections have occurred when these indicators are above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators remain at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not experience a significant correction.</p><p>This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant.<b>Only the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy is crucial.</b></p><p><b>From the perspective of the risk of soaring US Treasury yields</b></p><p>So, if an investor's position does not constitute risk, what is risk? According to Kolanovic,<b>The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or be related to reduced bond purchases, inflation, etc.).</b>The chart below shows the correlation between 10-year bond prices and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovich wrote that in July, the technology sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of -3. In other words, 10-year bond prices rose by an average of 1%, technology stocks rose by 4%, and financial stocks fell by 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and now all stock sectors show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.</p><p>Over the past month, weakness in Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, and communications) has pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks up from negative territory in the second quarter to around 1.</p><p>The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.</p><p>Kolanovich believes that such a risk is small, writing:</p><p>\"Considering current position levels, volatility, and other factors, we estimate that such an event would occur if stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries suffered a sell-off of about 3% in one day. However, given that the correlation between the two has weakened and the recent strong performance of both the stock and bond markets (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are performing well, and U.S. Treasury yields are rebounding), the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovich points out that investors can hedge risk by reducing the amount of time they hold bonds and stocks, which may, to some extent, trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks, thus further illustrating that the risk of a large-scale sell-off in the stock market is not significant.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the risks of the Delta virus</b></p><p>Since the risks of position adjustments and rising yields (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else could cause concern?</p><p>Kolanovich stated that the main factor hindering the rise of risk assets in recent months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"the mortality rate of the Delta outbreak is low among vaccinated countries, and investors should be reassured, and this is very likely the last wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Kolanovic added:</p><p>\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta outbreak. An important signal is that the baseline number of infections (the average number of people infected by patients who begin to show symptoms at a certain point) is declining in 40 of the 50 states in the United States.\"<b>Other potential risks</b></p><p>Therefore, positions are at an average level, the risk of reduction has been controlled, and the Delta outbreak is subsiding. Are there other risks in the market?</p><p>The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovative stocks.</p><p>Although these sectors experienced a major correction at the beginning of the year, JPMorgan Chase believes there will be another round of decline. The final level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these industries and equivalent traditional industries.</p><p><b>Although these \"bubble assets\" may continue to burst, Kolanovich believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.</b></p><p>Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next year<b>Geopolitical risk</b>These risks will increase and amplify further, involving various interdependent issues such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia and Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and the political developments of the United States itself. But as long as the Federal Reserve continues to inject billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, bullish expectations will remain unchanged.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802144001,"gmtCreate":1627741152903,"gmtModify":1703495386598,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802144001","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hottest market events in August. The Federal Reserve remains the focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August typically brings a slowdown in US stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of the companies have already released their earnings reports. However, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market still showed some weak seasonal trends entering September. This is noteworthy, especially considering that inflation and stock valuations remain worrying.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long run, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. As of the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was entirely in line with analysts' expectations, and even partially exceeded them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% due to concerns about Delta virus mutation, experiencing minor fluctuations. However, in late July, the strong performance of the earnings season generally boosted all sectors of the US stock market. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has caused concern among many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will tighten restrictions on travel again as the virus spreads further.</p><p>The market cannot anticipate changes in the virus, but if the situation worsens, it could mean that people will return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, mega-tech stocks and the US dollar.</p><p>Returning to profitability, from large banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Many companies performed quite well in their July reports, including airlines and railroads. One view is that if railways operate well, the broader economy will also develop well, because transportation is often a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor expectations for full-quarter earnings are also rising, with analysts currently forecasting second-quarter earnings growth of 74.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in several industries (led by finance, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>On the other hand, market weaknesses still exist, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither company's prospects impressed investors, and both companies' stock prices remained on the defensive. In addition, investors have already priced in expectations of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to significantly exceed expectations or have broad growth potential to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise significantly due to strong earnings.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve policy support and economic data</b></p><p>The principle of \"not fighting the Federal Reserve\" does not seem to have changed. This is a term coined decades ago by traders who believed the Federal Reserve would step in to support the stock market during any downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to loose monetary policy and that high inflation may cool down.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rhetoric will influence a \"key indicator\" of global assets: will U.S. Treasury Bond yields resume their upward trend in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields often help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields often help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The tug-of-war between growth and value that continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, many on Wall Street believed that Jackson Hole might be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited stimulus tapering program. That may not be the case now: since the end of March, U.S. Treasury yields have steadily declined, seemingly giving the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. This is a strategy used by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to be working.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and as of the end of July, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3%. Considering economic growth and high inflation month after month, this is a surprisingly low yield.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden stated in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most people in the market will be closely watching the July consumer and producer prices released in August, as well as the July employment report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now shift more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, this could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve is ready to take action, or at least predict that the Fed will take stimulus measures. Some economists point out that the Federal Reserve's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities has provided unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility draws attention</b></p><p>August may be a time for investors to catch their breath. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor was somewhat disrupted last year, but if fears about the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 often indicate that people expect less volatility in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that seasonal factors in August were not favorable to the market. Historically, US stocks have been on a downward trend throughout August, making it the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. In the 72 years since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hottest market events in August. The Federal Reserve remains the focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August typically brings a slowdown in US stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of the companies have already released their earnings reports. However, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market still showed some weak seasonal trends entering September. This is noteworthy, especially considering that inflation and stock valuations remain worrying.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long run, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. As of the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was entirely in line with analysts' expectations, and even partially exceeded them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% due to concerns about Delta virus mutation, experiencing minor fluctuations. However, in late July, the strong performance of the earnings season generally boosted all sectors of the US stock market. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has caused concern among many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will tighten restrictions on travel again as the virus spreads further.</p><p>The market cannot anticipate changes in the virus, but if the situation worsens, it could mean that people will return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, mega-tech stocks and the US dollar.</p><p>Returning to profitability, from large banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Many companies performed quite well in their July reports, including airlines and railroads. One view is that if railways operate well, the broader economy will also develop well, because transportation is often a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor expectations for full-quarter earnings are also rising, with analysts currently forecasting second-quarter earnings growth of 74.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in several industries (led by finance, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>On the other hand, market weaknesses still exist, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither company's prospects impressed investors, and both companies' stock prices remained on the defensive. In addition, investors have already priced in expectations of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to significantly exceed expectations or have broad growth potential to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise significantly due to strong earnings.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve policy support and economic data</b></p><p>The principle of \"not fighting the Federal Reserve\" does not seem to have changed. This is a term coined decades ago by traders who believed the Federal Reserve would step in to support the stock market during any downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to loose monetary policy and that high inflation may cool down.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rhetoric will influence a \"key indicator\" of global assets: will U.S. Treasury Bond yields resume their upward trend in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields often help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields often help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The tug-of-war between growth and value that continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, many on Wall Street believed that Jackson Hole might be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited stimulus tapering program. That may not be the case now: since the end of March, U.S. Treasury yields have steadily declined, seemingly giving the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. This is a strategy used by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to be working.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and as of the end of July, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3%. Considering economic growth and high inflation month after month, this is a surprisingly low yield.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden stated in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most people in the market will be closely watching the July consumer and producer prices released in August, as well as the July employment report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now shift more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, this could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve is ready to take action, or at least predict that the Fed will take stimulus measures. Some economists point out that the Federal Reserve's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities has provided unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility draws attention</b></p><p>August may be a time for investors to catch their breath. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor was somewhat disrupted last year, but if fears about the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 often indicate that people expect less volatility in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that seasonal factors in August were not favorable to the market. Historically, US stocks have been on a downward trend throughout August, making it the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. In the 72 years since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"content":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]","text":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]","html":"Yes$MAPLETREECOMMERCIAL TRUST (N2IU. SI) $[smile]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863524636,"gmtCreate":1632407213825,"gmtModify":1676530775482,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863524636","repostId":"2169565516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169565516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632364656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2169565516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-23 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169565516","media":"36氪","summary":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息","content":"<p>Due to the account suspension and fund freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been a trending topic this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has shrouded the entire cross-border e-commerce industry has always been that today's big seller is shutting down, and tomorrow's big seller is laying off employees. Especially with some We Media traffic being devoured, the industry doesn't seem to have seen any positive developments.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores Amazon has actually blocked. Initially, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000 stores, but since Amazon has remained silent about it, this number has gradually become accepted as fact.</p><p>Even at the event held last Friday where Amazon opened its world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou, it remained tight-lipped about the number of stores closed, with no plans to disclose them publicly, hoping that the cold snap would pass.</p><p>The invited media outlets certainly wouldn't let this rare opportunity pass them by, so they turned a Q&A session for the settlement event into a press conference for the store closures. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, admitted, \"Today's announcement was originally for the training center to be located in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media outlets to pay attention to the account being banned, so we made our first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has shut down the brand sales permissions of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some large sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as engaged in numerous other violations. Over the past period, Amazon has issued multiple warnings to these sellers, given them multiple opportunities to appeal, and even reinstated some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers have continued to violate regulations, so we have decided to terminate our partnership with these sellers this time.\"</p><p>In other words, the banned sellers committed serious violations, and Amazon gave them many opportunities but repeatedly failed to correct them, so they were forced to take the final step.</p><p>“Amazon only released data for the first five months; it didn’t disclose data for June, July, and August. Many stores were also affected during those three months. So the final number must be much higher than that,” a senior industry insider told.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the losses are indeed considerable. For example in the past<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">South China City</a>The \"Four Young Masters Have a Tree\" had 340 shops shut down and 130 million yuan in funds frozen. This directly led to the departure of half of the employees, a decline in revenue by half, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another major online retailer, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, freezing 41.43 million yuan in funds.</p><p>So why is Amazon's store closures so strong and intense this time? What are the things behind this that we truly reflect on?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. Amazon regularly conducts account sweeps twice a year. One is around Prime Day in July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for this major promotional event, which is from the end of April to the beginning of May. The other occurred two months before Christmas, in mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because they saw this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, blocking a few has absolutely no impact. \"Actually, as long as the number of stores that close doesn't exceed a certain percentage, even the owner doesn't need to know about it,\" a seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry boom, all sellers are more optimistic this year, completely unaware of the real risks behind this. In fact, Amazon was already using algorithms three years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>To detect whether product reviews are genuine or fake. Many self-operated listings (product pages) have also been blocked. For example, a seller in Shenzhen reduced his listings from 17,000 to 1,000, and his WeChat Moments were filled with lamentations. Fortunately, due to the serious errors, Amazon did not continue the large-scale shutdown.</p><p>But the technology has been advancing until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging based on store logic, but on brand dimension logic. If the algorithm identifies a certain percentage of problematic brands, all of its stores will be shut down. That's why a large number of store groups have been shut down.</p><p>36Kr also noted that Amazon's new CEO, Andy Jassy, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, places greater emphasis on protecting the authenticity of its platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start using white hat tactics. Amazon also encourages on-site review invitations, inviting users to leave reviews through in-site messages. If the product and user experience are bad, the reviews will definitely be negative. So this is very beneficial to the entire ecosystem. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money cannot succeed,\" the aforementioned seller said.</p><p>supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of its algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of Tmall and Taobao in China. The difference is that Amazon treats all sellers on its platform as suppliers, while itself is essentially a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all of a seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>They are all Amazon suppliers.</p><p>“You could understand it this way: Tmall is like a shopping mall, while Amazon is like a department store. So this foreshadows some of Amazon’s penalty mechanisms. If a Tmall seller violates regulations, will the platform touch your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales volume, while Tmall talks about GMV,” Zhou Jun, Vice President of Sales at Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>Amazon is different; once it receives payment from a customer, it is responsible for the user. If it is discovered that the seller may have harmed the customer, the funds will be frozen first to deal with the possibility of joint liability due to lawsuits later.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai, who stated that Amazon's fund freeze period is 90 days, mainly used to cover the seller's refund and return compensation fees for past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there are no violations, you can apply to retrieve it.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is not actually about selling goods yourself, but about the seller supplying goods to the platform, and the platform then helping to sell the goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial body and has no authority to freeze funds and goods. However, because of Amazon's supplier logic, anyone who violates the supplier rules must be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"From a value perspective, fake orders are serious acts of lying and fraud, and we all deeply abhor them. However, we cannot simply stigmatize Chinese sellers; everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon did wrong was that it at least had a hearing to give sellers a chance to defend themselves. For sellers, the legitimate rights they deserve must be fought for.\" If this passes quietly, the future will probably be a nightmare. Zhou Jun said.</p><p>Regarding the appeals process, Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, stated that if a seller's account is suspended due to violations, Amazon will provide the seller with an opportunity to appeal. These accounts will resume normal operations as long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was incorrect, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid further violations.</p><p>However, according to information obtained by 36Kr from several sellers, the probability of successfully appealing to Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, they are not very accurate in grasping the various changes in Amazon's rules, the main problem being that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where is the way out?</p><p>The cross-border e-commerce industry as a whole is still in its early stages and cannot even be considered an industry. 36Kr found from its visits to several investment institutions that investors' optimistic assessment of the industry remained unaffected. What we've been looking for is which companies can weather cycles and have the consciousness and ability to create a new brand.</p><p>Building a brand is difficult; it requires a company's comprehensive capabilities in understanding user needs, marketing strategies, and supply chain influence. However, it is precisely because of the high barriers to entry that it is even more scarce. especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein has excited all investors, who look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>Looking ahead, the first thing the industry needs to do is restructure its mindset. The past distribution path has become a dead end; the sooner you transform, the more opportunities you will have. A major seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover advantage because it was two years late in transforming its brand. Only after chasing after them aggressively did they realize that the probability of success was extremely slim. This is also a reliance on the dividend path left over from the early stages of the industry, because it was easier to make quick money in the past, so people are less willing to take a path that is accumulated, difficult but correct.</p><p>Then, find a niche vertical category to cultivate in depth. If the previous approach was rough and rugged, now it is definitely necessary to carry out refined operations. Moreover, the requirements for product categories have become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and crude approach work? Because consumers are becoming more aware and have higher demands for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies and encouraging brands to be more determined. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, we need to introduce some highly qualified technical personnel. The pandemic marked the beginning of the rise of cross-border e-commerce, accelerated account bans, and the direct impact was that more entrepreneurs entered the industry across borders. Industries that seem to have no barriers to entry are actually quite barrier-free, especially when it comes to the practical stage. Perhaps even now, some pure business logic can still be understood, but the advantage of creating competitive barriers requires the participation of more highly qualified talents. Especially on the technical side, there is still a lot of room for improvement for current industry practitioners.</p><p>Finally, be good at leveraging the power of capital. For a long time, cross-border e-commerce has been easy to make money from, and there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, their desire for capital is relatively average. However, if we analyze Anker Innovation and Shein, we will clearly find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market is especially the latter's high growth. We cannot do without the help of capital. Capital is neither good nor bad; the core lies in how to utilize it. Capital providing funding only plays a fundamental role; greater empowerment will greatly help us grow stronger and bigger.</p><p>Looking at any industry development cycle, large-scale capital inflows occur after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investments were made by large companies, highly educated individuals with rich industry experience, and these innovative forces, driven by technology, began to forge new paths and restructure the business landscape. In other words, if you don't accept investment, capital will invest in your competitors.</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy did Amazon ban Chinese sellers?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-23 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Due to the account suspension and fund freezing incident,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It has been a trending topic this year.</p><p>Therefore, the information that has shrouded the entire cross-border e-commerce industry has always been that today's big seller is shutting down, and tomorrow's big seller is laying off employees. Especially with some We Media traffic being devoured, the industry doesn't seem to have seen any positive developments.</p><p>The key information asymmetry here is how many Chinese stores Amazon has actually blocked. Initially, the most mainstream rumor was that there were 50,000 stores, but since Amazon has remained silent about it, this number has gradually become accepted as fact.</p><p>Even at the event held last Friday where Amazon opened its world's first comprehensive seller training center in Hangzhou, it remained tight-lipped about the number of stores closed, with no plans to disclose them publicly, hoping that the cold snap would pass.</p><p>The invited media outlets certainly wouldn't let this rare opportunity pass them by, so they turned a Q&A session for the settlement event into a press conference for the store closures. So much so that Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, admitted, \"Today's announcement was originally for the training center to be located in Hangzhou, but I didn't expect so many media outlets to pay attention to the account being banned, so we made our first response together.\"</p><p>According to her, in the past five months, Amazon has shut down the brand sales permissions of about 600 Chinese sellers, involving about 3,000 brands, including some large sellers. \"These sellers have repeatedly and seriously abused reviews, as well as engaged in numerous other violations. Over the past period, Amazon has issued multiple warnings to these sellers, given them multiple opportunities to appeal, and even reinstated some deactivated accounts. However, these sellers have continued to violate regulations, so we have decided to terminate our partnership with these sellers this time.\"</p><p>In other words, the banned sellers committed serious violations, and Amazon gave them many opportunities but repeatedly failed to correct them, so they were forced to take the final step.</p><p>“Amazon only released data for the first five months; it didn’t disclose data for June, July, and August. Many stores were also affected during those three months. So the final number must be much higher than that,” a senior industry insider told.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>。</p><p>For sellers who rely heavily on Amazon, the losses are indeed considerable. For example in the past<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01668\">South China City</a>The \"Four Young Masters Have a Tree\" had 340 shops shut down and 130 million yuan in funds frozen. This directly led to the departure of half of the employees, a decline in revenue by half, and a net loss of over 700 million yuan; Another major online retailer, Tongtuo Technology, was banned from selling and closed 54 stores, freezing 41.43 million yuan in funds.</p><p>So why is Amazon's store closures so strong and intense this time? What are the things behind this that we truly reflect on?</p><p>Advances in algorithms</p><p>In fact, everyone in the industry knows an unspoken rule. Amazon regularly conducts account sweeps twice a year. One is around Prime Day in July. Amazon usually closes some accounts two months in advance for this major promotional event, which is from the end of April to the beginning of May. The other occurred two months before Christmas, in mid-October or early November.</p><p>Because they saw this huge loophole, many sellers have their own countermeasures. For example, if a brand authorizes 50 stores, blocking a few has absolutely no impact. \"Actually, as long as the number of stores that close doesn't exceed a certain percentage, even the owner doesn't need to know about it,\" a seller told 36Kr.</p><p>After last year's industry boom, all sellers are more optimistic this year, completely unaware of the real risks behind this. In fact, Amazon was already using algorithms three years ago.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>To detect whether product reviews are genuine or fake. Many self-operated listings (product pages) have also been blocked. For example, a seller in Shenzhen reduced his listings from 17,000 to 1,000, and his WeChat Moments were filled with lamentations. Fortunately, due to the serious errors, Amazon did not continue the large-scale shutdown.</p><p>But the technology has been advancing until it began to mature a lot this year. In addition, Amazon has changed the rules, no longer judging based on store logic, but on brand dimension logic. If the algorithm identifies a certain percentage of problematic brands, all of its stores will be shut down. That's why a large number of store groups have been shut down.</p><p>36Kr also noted that Amazon's new CEO, Andy Jassy, was previously the CEO of Amazon Cloud Computing, not the head of e-commerce. This also proves that Amazon, as a data-driven company, places greater emphasis on protecting the authenticity of its platform data.</p><p>\"I believe that after this incident, many sellers will start using white hat tactics. Amazon also encourages on-site review invitations, inviting users to leave reviews through in-site messages. If the product and user experience are bad, the reviews will definitely be negative. So this is very beneficial to the entire ecosystem. If bad money keeps driving out good money, good money cannot succeed,\" the aforementioned seller said.</p><p>supplier logic</p><p>In addition to the continuous iteration of its algorithm, Amazon's definition of sellers is also different from that of Tmall and Taobao in China. The difference is that Amazon treats all sellers on its platform as suppliers, while itself is essentially a retailer.</p><p>In other words, all of a seller's digital assets on Amazon belong to Amazon. Even if you are<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>They are all Amazon suppliers.</p><p>“You could understand it this way: Tmall is like a shopping mall, while Amazon is like a department store. So this foreshadows some of Amazon’s penalty mechanisms. If a Tmall seller violates regulations, will the platform touch your goods and funds? Amazon talks more about sales volume, while Tmall talks about GMV,” Zhou Jun, Vice President of Sales at Zhiyun Tiangong, told 36Kr.</p><p>Amazon is different; once it receives payment from a customer, it is responsible for the user. If it is discovered that the seller may have harmed the customer, the funds will be frozen first to deal with the possibility of joint liability due to lawsuits later.</p><p>This was also confirmed by Cindy Tai, who stated that Amazon's fund freeze period is 90 days, mainly used to cover the seller's refund and return compensation fees for past customers, as well as other unpaid fees. After 90 days, if there are no violations, you can apply to retrieve it.</p><p>Therefore, opening a store on Amazon is not actually about selling goods yourself, but about the seller supplying goods to the platform, and the platform then helping to sell the goods. Amazon is not an administrative or judicial body and has no authority to freeze funds and goods. However, because of Amazon's supplier logic, anyone who violates the supplier rules must be kicked out of the directory.</p><p>\"From a value perspective, fake orders are serious acts of lying and fraud, and we all deeply abhor them. However, we cannot simply stigmatize Chinese sellers; everyone in the industry is working day and night. What Amazon did wrong was that it at least had a hearing to give sellers a chance to defend themselves. For sellers, the legitimate rights they deserve must be fought for.\" If this passes quietly, the future will probably be a nightmare. Zhou Jun said.</p><p>Regarding the appeals process, Cindy Tai, Amazon's Global Vice President and Executive President of Amazon Global Selling Asia Pacific, stated that if a seller's account is suspended due to violations, Amazon will provide the seller with an opportunity to appeal. These accounts will resume normal operations as long as the seller proves that Amazon's judgment was incorrect, or that the violation was only temporary or unintentional, and provides a solution to avoid further violations.</p><p>However, according to information obtained by 36Kr from several sellers, the probability of successfully appealing to Amazon is almost zero. At the same time, they are not very accurate in grasping the various changes in Amazon's rules, the main problem being that email communication is very inefficient.</p><p>Where is the way out?</p><p>The cross-border e-commerce industry as a whole is still in its early stages and cannot even be considered an industry. 36Kr found from its visits to several investment institutions that investors' optimistic assessment of the industry remained unaffected. What we've been looking for is which companies can weather cycles and have the consciousness and ability to create a new brand.</p><p>Building a brand is difficult; it requires a company's comprehensive capabilities in understanding user needs, marketing strategies, and supply chain influence. However, it is precisely because of the high barriers to entry that it is even more scarce. especially<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300866\">Anker Innovation</a>The success of Shein has excited all investors, who look forward to finding the next such investment target.</p><p>Looking ahead, the first thing the industry needs to do is restructure its mindset. The past distribution path has become a dead end; the sooner you transform, the more opportunities you will have. A major seller in the industry lost a lot of first-mover advantage because it was two years late in transforming its brand. Only after chasing after them aggressively did they realize that the probability of success was extremely slim. This is also a reliance on the dividend path left over from the early stages of the industry, because it was easier to make quick money in the past, so people are less willing to take a path that is accumulated, difficult but correct.</p><p>Then, find a niche vertical category to cultivate in depth. If the previous approach was rough and rugged, now it is definitely necessary to carry out refined operations. Moreover, the requirements for product categories have become higher. Why didn't the previous simple and crude approach work? Because consumers are becoming more aware and have higher demands for product quality and service, third parties like Amazon are gradually changing their strategies and encouraging brands to be more determined. In such an environment, without the ability to refine, there may be no profit at all in the future.</p><p>Secondly, we need to introduce some highly qualified technical personnel. The pandemic marked the beginning of the rise of cross-border e-commerce, accelerated account bans, and the direct impact was that more entrepreneurs entered the industry across borders. Industries that seem to have no barriers to entry are actually quite barrier-free, especially when it comes to the practical stage. Perhaps even now, some pure business logic can still be understood, but the advantage of creating competitive barriers requires the participation of more highly qualified talents. Especially on the technical side, there is still a lot of room for improvement for current industry practitioners.</p><p>Finally, be good at leveraging the power of capital. For a long time, cross-border e-commerce has been easy to make money from, and there is even no shortage of cash flow. Therefore, their desire for capital is relatively average. However, if we analyze Anker Innovation and Shein, we will clearly find that the reason why these two companies have such high valuations in the capital market is especially the latter's high growth. We cannot do without the help of capital. Capital is neither good nor bad; the core lies in how to utilize it. Capital providing funding only plays a fundamental role; greater empowerment will greatly help us grow stronger and bigger.</p><p>Looking at any industry development cycle, large-scale capital inflows occur after the penetration rate has increased to a certain extent. At this time, the investments were made by large companies, highly educated individuals with rich industry experience, and these innovative forces, driven by technology, began to forge new paths and restructure the business landscape. In other words, if you don't accept investment, capital will invest in your competitors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dffe01d72356572c6df4fa7726ddb0c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202109221714177c3f3de2&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2169565516","content_text":"因为封号冻资事件，亚马逊今年一直被热搜。\n所以导致整个跨境电商笼罩的信息一直是今天这个大卖关了，明天那个大卖裁员了。特别是在一些自媒体流量吞噬下，行业似乎就没有一些积极事件发生。\n这里面比较关键的信息不对称是亚马逊到底封了多少个中国店铺？开始最主流传言是有5万家，由于亚马逊官方一直保持不对外发声，这个数字就逐渐默认成事实。\n即使在亚马逊上周五召开的全球首个综合性卖家培训中心落户杭州活动上，对于封店数量还是三缄其口，不计划对外披露，希望冷处理就过去。\n被邀请的媒体们肯定不会放过这个难得机会，所以活生生把一场落户活动问答环节变成了封店潮发布会。以至于亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai都坦言，“今天这个发布本来是针对培训中心落户杭州的，只是没想到这么多媒体关注账号被封之事，所以就一起进行了首次回应。”\n据她透露，过去5个月，亚马逊关闭了约600个中国卖家品牌销售权限，涉及品牌数约3000个，包括一些大卖家。“这些卖家都有多次、反复、严重滥用评论行为，以及有许多其他违规行为。在过去一段时间，亚马逊对这些卖家进行过多次警告，他们也有多次申诉机会，甚至恢复了一些停用过的账号。但是这些卖家持续违规，所以这次决定终止和这些卖家的合作关系。”\n翻译过来就是，被封掉的卖家违规行为严重，亚马逊给了很多次机会仍屡教不改，所以被迫走了最后一步。\n“亚马逊只是公布了前五个月的数据，6、7、8月数据没有披露，这三个月也有很多店铺受影响。所以最终的数字一定比这个大很多。”一位资深从业者告诉36氪。\n对于严重依赖亚马逊的卖家来说，损失确实不小。比如曾经的华南城四少之有棵树，被封掉店铺340个，冻结资金1.3亿元。直接导致员工离职一半，收入下滑一半，净亏损超7亿元；另一大卖通拓科技被禁售关闭店铺数 54 个， 冻结资金 4143 万元。\n那么，亚马逊这次封店力度和强度为什么这么大？背后让我们真正反思的又有哪些？\n算法的进步\n事实上，行业内都知道一个潜规则。就是亚马逊每年固定有两次账号扫荡，一次是在7月左右的会员日（Prime Day），亚马逊为了自己这个大型促销活动通常会提前2个月关掉一些账号，也就是在4月底到5月初；另一次是在圣诞节的前2个月，即10月中旬或者11月初。\n因为看到了这个巨大的漏洞，所以很多卖家都有自己的应对之策。比如一个品牌授权50个店铺，封掉几个完全没有影响。“其实只要关掉的店铺没有超过一定比例，连老板都不需要知道这事。”某卖家告诉36氪。\n经过去年行业大爆炸后，今年所有卖家也都更乐观，完全没看到这件事背后真正的风险。其实早在3年前，亚马逊就在利用算法机器人在检测商品评论是真实还是虚假。曾经也封掉了很多自营Listing（产品页面），比如深圳某卖家的Listing就从1.7万缩减至1000，朋友圈也是一篇哀嚎。好在后来因为有误差太严重，亚马逊就没再大规模继续封停。\n但技术一直在进步，直到今年开始成熟许多。加上亚马逊改变了规则，不再是按照店铺逻辑评判，而是按照品牌维度逻辑。只要算法识别出有问题的品牌，也超过了一定比例，旗下店铺一律关停。所以才有了大量店铺群被封。\n36氪也注意到，亚马逊新任CEO安迪·杰西(Andy Jassy)，此前是亚马逊云计算CEO，不是电商负责人。这也证明亚马逊作为一家数据驱动公司，对于平台数据真实度的保护更加重视。\n“相信这次事件以后，很多卖家会开始采用白帽玩法。以及亚马逊也鼓励站内邀评，通过站内信邀请用户评价。如果产品和体验不好，邀回来的肯定是差评。所以这件事对整个生态是很有好处的。如果一直劣币驱逐良币，良币就不可能做起来。”上述卖家说道。\n供应商逻辑\n除了算法的持续迭代外，亚马逊对卖家定义也和国内天猫淘宝不一样。不一样地方在于，亚马逊是把平台上所有卖家视为供应商，自己相当于一个零售商。\n也就是说，卖家在亚马逊上的所有数字资产都归属亚马逊。即使你是苹果，是耐克，都是亚马逊的供应商。\n“可以这么理解，天猫类似于一个购物中心，亚马逊是一个百货公司。所以这就埋下了亚马逊的一些处罚机制伏笔。如果是天猫卖家违规，平台会动你的货和资金吗？亚马逊谈的更多是销售规模，天猫谈才GMV。”智云天工销售副总周骏告诉36氪。\n对于亚马逊就不同，一旦收了顾客的货款，就要为用户负责。只要发现卖家可能对顾客造成伤害，就会先把资金冻结，以应付后续会不会因为起诉承担连带责任。\n这也得到了Cindy Tai的证实，亚马逊资金冻结周期为90天，主要用来承担卖家过去客户的退款退货赔偿费用，以及其他未支付费用。90天后，如果没有违规会可申请取回。\n所以，在亚马逊开店，其实不是自己在卖货，而是卖家给平台供货，平台再帮忙卖货。亚马逊不是行政和司法机构，没权力冻结资金和货。但就因为亚马逊的供应商逻辑，因此只要违反了供应商规则，就得从名录里踢掉。\n“从价值观来讲，刷单是严重的撒谎、造假行为，我们都是深恶痛绝的。但也不能一味污名化中国卖家，行业里大家都在没日没夜干活。亚马逊做的不好的地方是，起码有个听证会，给卖家一个自辨环节。对于卖家来说，该争取的合法权益必须争取。如果这次默默过去，未来估计是噩梦。”周骏说。\n在申诉流程上，亚马逊全球副总裁、亚马逊全球开店亚太区执行总裁 Cindy Tai表示，如果一个卖家账号因为违规行为被停用，亚马逊会为卖家提供申诉机会；只要这个卖家证明亚马逊判断有误，或者证明违规行为只是暂时或无意失误，并提供如何避免再次违规方案，这些账号会恢复正常运营。\n但据36氪从多位卖家处了解到，从亚马逊申诉成功的概率几乎为0。同时，对于亚马逊的规则变化多样把握也不是很准，其中主要问题在于邮件沟通这种方式效率很低。\n出路在哪儿？\n对于整个跨境电商行业来说，目前还处于很早期阶段，甚至都还谈不上一个行业。36氪从走访的多家投资机构中发现，投资人对行业的乐观判断未受到任何影响。一直在寻找的是，哪些企业能穿越周期，有意识有能力走出一个新品牌。\n塑造一个品牌很难，需要的是企业对用户需求、营销玩法、供应链影响等综合能力，但正因为门槛高，所以才更加稀缺。特别是安克创新和Shein的成功，让所有投资人都很兴奋，期待找到下一个这样的投资标的。\n在未来出路上，行业首先要重构的是意识。过往的铺货路径已经是死胡同，越早转型机会越多。行业某大卖家就是因为晚了2年转型品牌，才丧失了很多先发红利。等回头猛追才发现，成功概率微乎其微。这个也是行业早期阶段留下的红利路径依赖，因为过去方式赚快钱更容易，所以都不太愿意走一条有积累、难而正确的路。\n然后，找到一个细分的垂直品类深耕。如果说之前是粗旷式的经营，现在肯定要进行精细化运营。而且对品类要求门槛变得更高。为什么之前那种简单粗暴模式行不通？就是因为消费者在觉醒，对产品质量、服务要求变得更高，亚马逊这样的第三方也在逐渐改变策略，鼓励品牌决心更强。如此环境之下，没有精细化的能力，或许未来压根没有利润可言。\n其次，引入一些高素质的技术人才。疫情是跨境电商出圈的开始，封号是加速，带来的直接影响就是更多创业者跨界进入。看似没有门槛的行业，实则门槛不低，特别到了实操阶段。也许直到现在还能走通一部分纯生意逻辑，但是打造竞争壁垒这件事优势就需要更多高素质人才加入。特别是偏技术端，就目前行业从业者来看，能提升的空间还是很大。\n最后，善于借助资本力量。一直以来，因为跨境电商赚钱容易，甚至不缺现金流。所以对资本的欲望也相对一般，但如果梳理安克创新和Shein就会明显发现，这两家公司之所以在资本市场有这么高的估值，特别是后者的高增长。离不开资本的助力，资本无好坏，核心在于如何去利用。资本提供资金只是底层作用，更大的赋能对做强做大帮助大。\n从任何一个行业发展周期来看，资本大规模进入是在渗透率有一定提高之后。这时候投资的是一些大厂、高学历、丰富行业经验等人才，这些创新力量在技术推动下开始走出新的路子，以及重构商业格局。换句话说，你不接受投资，资本就会投资你的竞争对手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831981160,"gmtCreate":1629279719750,"gmtModify":1676529989266,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831981160","repostId":"1147839184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147839184","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1629262210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147839184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 12:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147839184","media":"Wind万得","summary":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，","content":"<p>Overnight, the US released retail sales data, and all three major US stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey released a report stating that the overnight data does not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales figures for May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and lockdowns that occurred earlier in the pandemic, indicating that American consumers are choosing to stay at home and reduce spending—consistent with a sharp drop in last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Furthermore, surveys of individual categories showed the largest slowdown in growth for non-essential consumer goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, which may also reflect the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Financial reports released yesterday showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production growth in July was mainly driven by 11.2% growth in the automobile and auto parts manufacturing sector, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined to its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p>In conclusion, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, \"With lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of Delta virus mutation dragging down service consumption, our economists may revise their growth assumptions for the second half of the year, although we still expect the Delta variant to have no substantial economic impact on the United States given ample vaccine supply and relatively relaxed COVID-19 policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The statement is even worse: Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer, commenting on the retail data, emphasized that although she expects retail sales to rise slightly in August, \"downside risks remain.\" Spending by non-store retailers should rebound, but service spending will weaken—travel spending has fallen significantly, which seems consistent with the increase in COVID-19 cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices, \"something we've been emphasizing for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also pointed out, \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending meant that real consumer spending we tracked grew by only 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting this data into its GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy slowed down in the third quarter,\" and currently expects economic growth of only 4.5% following the release of the retail sales report, lower than the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"The Delta variant has already damaged the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy,\" said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth. \"This will be a long-term problem and will cause some market volatility.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the turning point approaching? Bank of America and Goldman Sachs see the risk that the market has not yet priced\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 12:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Overnight, the US released retail sales data, and all three major US stock indexes fell from their highs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Chris Hussey released a report stating that the overnight data does not bode well for the US economic outlook.</p><p>A Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that although core retail sales figures for May and June were revised upward, U.S. retail sales fell by 1.1% in July, a larger-than-expected decline. Notably, this decline was not accompanied by travel restrictions and lockdowns that occurred earlier in the pandemic, indicating that American consumers are choosing to stay at home and reduce spending—consistent with a sharp drop in last week's UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Furthermore, surveys of individual categories showed the largest slowdown in growth for non-essential consumer goods (such as electronics and appliances) and non-physical retail stores, which may also reflect the impending expiration of some unemployment benefits. Consumer leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">Home Depot</a>Financial reports released yesterday showed that consumer behavior is slowing.</p><p>On the supply side, industrial production growth in July was mainly driven by 11.2% growth in the automobile and auto parts manufacturing sector, while corporate inventories also increased. Builder confidence also declined to its lowest level since July 2020, driven by current sales and expected sales components, although future sales expectations remained unchanged.</p><p>In conclusion, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote, \"With lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, coupled with the increasing likelihood of Delta virus mutation dragging down service consumption, our economists may revise their growth assumptions for the second half of the year, although we still expect the Delta variant to have no substantial economic impact on the United States given ample vaccine supply and relatively relaxed COVID-19 policies.\"</p><p>Not only Goldman Sachs, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The statement is even worse: Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer, commenting on the retail data, emphasized that although she expects retail sales to rise slightly in August, \"downside risks remain.\" Spending by non-store retailers should rebound, but service spending will weaken—travel spending has fallen significantly, which seems consistent with the increase in COVID-19 cases. Similarly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey fell sharply in early August as consumers expressed concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and high prices, \"something we've been emphasizing for months.\"</p><p>Meyer also pointed out, \"After adjusting for higher prices, the weakness in nominal spending meant that real consumer spending we tracked grew by only 1.5% in the third quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter.\" Putting this data into its GDP forecast model, Bank of America now finds that \"the economy slowed down in the third quarter,\" and currently expects economic growth of only 4.5% following the release of the retail sales report, lower than the bank's official forecast of 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87ff56ea8f449d14e7a9ccb6f02cc31\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"The Delta variant has already damaged the confidence of ordinary Americans, so we need to pay attention to its ripple effects on the economy,\" said David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth. \"This will be a long-term problem and will cause some market volatility.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147839184","content_text":"隔夜美国公布零售数据，美股三大指数均从高点回落。高盛策略师克里斯•赫西(Chris Hussey)发布报告表示，隔夜数据对美国经济前景并非一个好兆头。\n高盛研报指出，尽管5月和6月的核心零售额被上修，但7月份美国零售销售下降了1.1%，降幅超过预期。值得注意的是，这种下降没有伴随疫情早期出现过的出行限制和关闭措施，这表明美国消费者选择呆在家里，减少支出——这与上周密歇根消费者信心调查(UMichigan Consumer Sentiment Survey)的大幅下降一致。此外，对个别类别的调查显示，非必需消费品(如电子产品和电器)以及非实体零售店的增速放缓幅度最大，这或许也反映出一些失业救济即将到期。消费者领头羊沃尔玛和家得宝昨日公布的财报显示，消费者行为正在放缓。\n在供应方面，7月份工业生产增长，主要受汽车和零部件制造业增长11.2%的推动，同时企业库存也有所增加。受当前销售和预期销售成分的推动，建筑商信心也下降，达到2020年7月以来的最低水平，尽管未来销售预期保持不变。\n综上所述，高盛策略师写道，“7月份低于预期的零售销售和汽车产量，加上Delta病毒变异越来越可能拖累服务消费，我们的经济学家可能会修改对下半年增长的假设，尽管我们仍然预计，在疫苗供应充足和相对宽松的新冠政策的背景下，Delta变种不会对美国产生实质性的经济影响。”\n不仅是高盛，但美国银行的说法更糟：美国银行首席经济学家米歇尔•迈耶(Michelle Meyer)在对零售数据发表评论时强调，尽管她预计8月份零售额会出现小幅增长，但“仍存在下行风险”。非商店零售商的支出应该会反弹，但服务支出将会减弱——旅行支出明显回落，这似乎与新冠病例的增加相一致。与此类似，密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者信心调查在8月初大幅下降，因为消费者对新冠肺炎病例增加和价格高企表示担忧，“我们几个月来一直在强调这一点。”\n迈耶还指出：“在对更高的价格进行调整后，名义支出的疲软使我们在第三季度追踪到的实际消费支出仅增长1.5%，第二季度的实际消费增长12.3%。”将该数据放到GDP的预测模型里，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，目前在零售销售报告发布后经济增速预期仅为 4.5%，低于该银行官方预测的7%。\n\nCIBC Private Wealth 的首席投资官 David Donabedian 表示：“Delta 变体已经打击了普通美国人的信心，因此我们需要关注它对经济的连锁反应。” “这将是一个长期问题，将会导致市场出现一些波动。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839057313,"gmtCreate":1629110261732,"gmtModify":1676529933269,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"omg","listText":"omg","text":"omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839057313","repostId":"2159241181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807003704,"gmtCreate":1627985589408,"gmtModify":1703499105220,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807003704","repostId":"1146938180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146938180","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1627958922,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146938180?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-03 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is coming; what are the wins and losses for various industries?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146938180","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"美国参议院一项斥资5500亿美元建设美国基础设施的计划将使高度依赖交通运输的行业受益，其中亚马逊、联邦快递和康卡斯特等公司高度将成最大的赢家。\n智通财经APP了解到，参议员们在上周末就该法案的最终文本","content":"<p>A U.S. Senate plan to spend $550 billion on U.S. infrastructure will benefit industries heavily reliant on transportation, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSK\">Comcast</a>Companies like this will become the biggest winners.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, senators are currently debating the bill after reaching an agreement on its final text last weekend, and are expected to vote on it as early as this week so that the House of Representatives can take action on it after it recesses in September.</p><p>While freight companies, airlines, and internet providers will receive a boost, the 2,702-page bill is detrimental to the cryptocurrency industry, pharmaceutical companies, and electric vehicle manufacturers. This bill represents the largest public works spending by the U.S. federal government in decades and will be a significant milestone in President Biden's agenda. However, some people in various industries are happy and some are sad about this plan, and the areas where the content of the plan is positive or negative are not entirely the same.</p><p>\"Favored\" field</p><p><b>Transportation company</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">combined package</a>Companies such as service companies (UPS.US), as major users of highways, will benefit from an investment of approximately $110 billion to improve America's roads and bridges. These companies, along with hundreds of others using the highway system, will benefit directly without having to bear the investment costs of increasing corporate taxes or gasoline taxes. Republicans and Democrats agreed not to include the two companies in the agreement.</p><p><b>Airlines and American Railroad</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Group (AAL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Company (DAL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>The company (LUV.US) will benefit from a roughly $25 billion bill that will plan to upgrade airports and reduce emissions and congestion. Like road users, these companies do not have to pay for these repairs directly. The plan also includes a $66 billion investment that will be used by Amtrak to upgrade its Northeast Corridor lines and make new investments in rail and high-speed rail in other parts of the United States.</p><p><b>Commodity Companies</b></p><p>All these roads, bridges, pipelines, wires, and railways will require large quantities of steel, cement, aluminum, and copper, many of which have seen their prices soar this year, including steel.</p><p><b>Internet service provider</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSA\">Comcast</a>Broadband providers such as Charter Communications (CHTR.US) have become beneficiaries of infrastructure development because senators have refused to support the U.S. government in providing substantial subsidies to companies that have already established networks. The bill would provide U.S. subsidies to areas lacking basic services. In addition, the bill appears to bring more customers to broadband providers because it expands emergency broadband programs that help consumers pay for services.</p><p>The bill also requires providers to offer low-cost broadband options, but includes a ban on government pricing. Large vendors are already offering such projects. Analysts have offered differing views on the provision, with some arguing it has no material impact on suppliers and others suggesting companies could be at risk if the Biden administration tries to ensure more customers have access to cheap packages.</p><p><b>Nuclear energy</b></p><p>Under the bill, struggling nuclear reactor operators will receive $6 billion in funding, which could help prevent nuclear power plants from going bankrupt in competition with natural gas and increasingly cheap renewable energy generation. Right<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOJA\">Southern Co.</a>. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXC\">Exron</a>The aid could be a good thing for uranium operators such as Electric Power (EXC.US) and uranium mining companies such as Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU.US).</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical Benefits Management (PBM)</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan would delay a Trump administration regulation aimed at limiting the use of drug rebates. Drug rebates are usually funds returned by manufacturers to drug benefits administrators in exchange for drug manufacturers receiving priority status in prescriptions under health insurance plans.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>(CVS.US), Cigna (CI.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">united health</a>Group (UNH.US) is the largest drug benefits management company in the United States.</p><p>The field of \"falling out of favor\"</p><p><b>deficit hawks</b></p><p>The agreement largely avoids tax increases, the result of a political compromise between Democrats who don't want to raise fuel taxes and Republicans who don't want to raise corporate taxes. The new revenue to fund the bill comes from the legislative branch, which is equivalent to scraping money from the sofa cushions of Congress. However, this is not a long-term solution for ongoing investment, and some expenses may ultimately not cover the total cost of the bill.</p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>The bill would increase the IRS's oversight of cryptocurrency transactions, which the Joint Committee on Taxation had estimated would raise $28 billion over a decade. Industry groups had lobbied hard against the rule, saying it was impossible to comply with the provision. To improve tax compliance, the bill would require more companies to report digital asset transactions to the IRS. According to industry organizations, the problem is that some companies, such as cryptocurrency miners, appear to be subject to the new law, but they lack the technical capabilities to collect the information they are required to report.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle</b></p><p>Electric vehicles and charging stations would receive modest investment in the bill, but far less than the $174 billion Biden proposed earlier this year. The bill includes $7.5 billion for charging, which will add charging locations for electric vehicle owners while roaming the country, and an additional $2.5 billion for investment in electric buses. Later this year, electric vehicles could still receive larger investments in a Democrat-only bill that would invest trillions of dollars in energy and the economy, paid for by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.</p><p><b>chemical pollution</b></p><p>One of the few tax increases in the bill is the reinstatement of the \"Superfund Polluter Tax,\" a tax on chemical companies cleaning up hazardous waste sites. It is estimated that the measure will raise $14.5 billion over a decade. The tax was established in 1980 and expired in 1995. Currently, the plan will be taxed until 2031.</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical companies</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan also includes a provision requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to refund Medicare funds for drug waste, i.e., drugs discarded by doctors due to overpackaging. According to U.S. government data, in 2019, Medicare paid more than $752 million for discarded drugs. Data shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>(AMGN.US), Celgene Corp. He Baishimei<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMY\">Bristol Squibb</a>(BMY.US) produces drugs that cause more than $150 million in waste.</p><p><b>Clean energy producers</b></p><p>The bill does not include an $8 billion tax credit for clean energy manufacturers, which has been a top priority for the Manchin and Biden administrations. Can be used by wind turbines,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>This subsidy, used by manufacturers of battery panels, geothermal energy equipment, fuel cells, electric vehicles, and power grids, is touted by its supporters as a way to establish a national clean energy manufacturing base in the United States. The subsidy appeared in the first recovery bill of the Obama administration, but the $2.3 billion allocated was quickly used up.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is coming; what are the wins and losses for various industries?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bipartisan infrastructure bill in the United States is coming; what are the wins and losses for various industries?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-03 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A U.S. Senate plan to spend $550 billion on U.S. infrastructure will benefit industries heavily reliant on transportation, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSK\">Comcast</a>Companies like this will become the biggest winners.</p><p>According to Zhitong Finance APP, senators are currently debating the bill after reaching an agreement on its final text last weekend, and are expected to vote on it as early as this week so that the House of Representatives can take action on it after it recesses in September.</p><p>While freight companies, airlines, and internet providers will receive a boost, the 2,702-page bill is detrimental to the cryptocurrency industry, pharmaceutical companies, and electric vehicle manufacturers. This bill represents the largest public works spending by the U.S. federal government in decades and will be a significant milestone in President Biden's agenda. However, some people in various industries are happy and some are sad about this plan, and the areas where the content of the plan is positive or negative are not entirely the same.</p><p>\"Favored\" field</p><p><b>Transportation company</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">combined package</a>Companies such as service companies (UPS.US), as major users of highways, will benefit from an investment of approximately $110 billion to improve America's roads and bridges. These companies, along with hundreds of others using the highway system, will benefit directly without having to bear the investment costs of increasing corporate taxes or gasoline taxes. Republicans and Democrats agreed not to include the two companies in the agreement.</p><p><b>Airlines and American Railroad</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Group (AAL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>Company (DAL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest airlines</a>The company (LUV.US) will benefit from a roughly $25 billion bill that will plan to upgrade airports and reduce emissions and congestion. Like road users, these companies do not have to pay for these repairs directly. The plan also includes a $66 billion investment that will be used by Amtrak to upgrade its Northeast Corridor lines and make new investments in rail and high-speed rail in other parts of the United States.</p><p><b>Commodity Companies</b></p><p>All these roads, bridges, pipelines, wires, and railways will require large quantities of steel, cement, aluminum, and copper, many of which have seen their prices soar this year, including steel.</p><p><b>Internet service provider</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCSA\">Comcast</a>Broadband providers such as Charter Communications (CHTR.US) have become beneficiaries of infrastructure development because senators have refused to support the U.S. government in providing substantial subsidies to companies that have already established networks. The bill would provide U.S. subsidies to areas lacking basic services. In addition, the bill appears to bring more customers to broadband providers because it expands emergency broadband programs that help consumers pay for services.</p><p>The bill also requires providers to offer low-cost broadband options, but includes a ban on government pricing. Large vendors are already offering such projects. Analysts have offered differing views on the provision, with some arguing it has no material impact on suppliers and others suggesting companies could be at risk if the Biden administration tries to ensure more customers have access to cheap packages.</p><p><b>Nuclear energy</b></p><p>Under the bill, struggling nuclear reactor operators will receive $6 billion in funding, which could help prevent nuclear power plants from going bankrupt in competition with natural gas and increasingly cheap renewable energy generation. Right<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOJA\">Southern Co.</a>. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXC\">Exron</a>The aid could be a good thing for uranium operators such as Electric Power (EXC.US) and uranium mining companies such as Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU.US).</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical Benefits Management (PBM)</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan would delay a Trump administration regulation aimed at limiting the use of drug rebates. Drug rebates are usually funds returned by manufacturers to drug benefits administrators in exchange for drug manufacturers receiving priority status in prescriptions under health insurance plans.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>(CVS.US), Cigna (CI.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">united health</a>Group (UNH.US) is the largest drug benefits management company in the United States.</p><p>The field of \"falling out of favor\"</p><p><b>deficit hawks</b></p><p>The agreement largely avoids tax increases, the result of a political compromise between Democrats who don't want to raise fuel taxes and Republicans who don't want to raise corporate taxes. The new revenue to fund the bill comes from the legislative branch, which is equivalent to scraping money from the sofa cushions of Congress. However, this is not a long-term solution for ongoing investment, and some expenses may ultimately not cover the total cost of the bill.</p><p><b>Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>The bill would increase the IRS's oversight of cryptocurrency transactions, which the Joint Committee on Taxation had estimated would raise $28 billion over a decade. Industry groups had lobbied hard against the rule, saying it was impossible to comply with the provision. To improve tax compliance, the bill would require more companies to report digital asset transactions to the IRS. According to industry organizations, the problem is that some companies, such as cryptocurrency miners, appear to be subject to the new law, but they lack the technical capabilities to collect the information they are required to report.</p><p><b>Electric vehicle</b></p><p>Electric vehicles and charging stations would receive modest investment in the bill, but far less than the $174 billion Biden proposed earlier this year. The bill includes $7.5 billion for charging, which will add charging locations for electric vehicle owners while roaming the country, and an additional $2.5 billion for investment in electric buses. Later this year, electric vehicles could still receive larger investments in a Democrat-only bill that would invest trillions of dollars in energy and the economy, paid for by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations.</p><p><b>chemical pollution</b></p><p>One of the few tax increases in the bill is the reinstatement of the \"Superfund Polluter Tax,\" a tax on chemical companies cleaning up hazardous waste sites. It is estimated that the measure will raise $14.5 billion over a decade. The tax was established in 1980 and expired in 1995. Currently, the plan will be taxed until 2031.</p><p><b>Pharmaceutical companies</b></p><p>The infrastructure plan also includes a provision requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to refund Medicare funds for drug waste, i.e., drugs discarded by doctors due to overpackaging. According to U.S. government data, in 2019, Medicare paid more than $752 million for discarded drugs. Data shows that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>(AMGN.US), Celgene Corp. He Baishimei<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMY\">Bristol Squibb</a>(BMY.US) produces drugs that cause more than $150 million in waste.</p><p><b>Clean energy producers</b></p><p>The bill does not include an $8 billion tax credit for clean energy manufacturers, which has been a top priority for the Manchin and Biden administrations. Can be used by wind turbines,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>This subsidy, used by manufacturers of battery panels, geothermal energy equipment, fuel cells, electric vehicles, and power grids, is touted by its supporters as a way to establish a national clean energy manufacturing base in the United States. The subsidy appeared in the first recovery bill of the Obama administration, but the $2.3 billion allocated was quickly used up.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146938180","content_text":"美国参议院一项斥资5500亿美元建设美国基础设施的计划将使高度依赖交通运输的行业受益，其中亚马逊、联邦快递和康卡斯特等公司高度将成最大的赢家。\n智通财经APP了解到，参议员们在上周末就该法案的最终文本达成一致后，目前正在就该法案进行辩论，预计最快本周就该法案进行投票，以便众议院在9月份休会后就该法案采取行动。\n尽管货运公司、航空公司和互联网供应商将得到提振，但这份2702页的法案并不利于加密货币行业、制药商和电动汽车制造商。这项法案代表了美国联邦政府几十年来最大规模的公共工程支出，也将是美国总统拜登议程的一个重要里程碑。但对于该项方案，各行业领域有人欢喜有人悲，计划的内容利好或利空的领域不尽相同。\n“得宠”领域\n运输公司\n亚马逊、联邦快递和联合包裹服务公司(UPS.US)等公司作为公路的主要使用者，将受益于一项约1100亿美元用于改善美国的道路和桥梁的投资。这几家公司和其他数百家使用高速公路系统的公司将直接受益，而不必承担企业税或汽油税上调带来的投资成本。共和党和民主党同意不将这两家公司纳入协议。\n航空公司与美国铁路公司\n美国航空集团(AAL.US)、达美航空公司(DAL.US)和西南航空公司(LUV.US)将从约250亿美元的法案中受益，该法案将计划升级机场以及减少排放和拥堵。和公路使用者一样，这些公司无需直接支付这些维修费用。该计划还包括660亿美元的投资，该项投资将用于美国铁路公司(Amtrak)升级东北走廊线路，以及对美国其他地区的铁路和高速铁路进行新的投资。\n大宗商品公司\n所有这些道路、桥梁、管道、电线和铁路将需要大量的钢铁、水泥、铝、铜，其中许多大宗商品的价格今年已经飙升，包括钢铁。\n互联网服务提供商\n康卡斯特和特许通讯公司(CHTR.US)等宽带提供商成为了基础设施建设的受益者，因为参议员们拒绝支持美国政府向已经建立网络的公司提供大量补贴。该法案将向缺乏基本服务的地区提供美国补贴。此外，该法案似乎将为宽带提供商带来更多的客户，因为其扩大了帮助消费者支付服务费用的紧急宽带项目。\n该法案还要求供应商提供低成本的宽带选项，但包括禁止政府设定价格。大型供应商已经在提供此类项目。分析人士们对这一条款提出了不同的看法，有的人认为对供应商没有实质性影响，其他人认为如果拜登政府试图确保更多客户能够获得廉价套餐，公司可能存在风险。\n核能源\n根据该法案，陷入困境的核电反应堆商将获得60亿美元的资助，这可能有助于防止核电站在与天然气和越来越多的可再生能源廉价发电的竞争中倒闭。对Southern Co.和爱克斯龙电力(EXC.US)等铀矿运营商以及Energy Fuels, Inc.(UUUU.US)等铀矿企业来说，上述援助可能是一件好事。\n药品福利管理(PBM)\n这项基础设施计划将推迟特朗普政府的一项监管规定，该规定旨在限制药品回扣的使用。药品回扣通常是制造商向药品福利管理人员返还的资金，以换取制药商在医保计划的处方上获得优先地位。CVS健康(CVS.US)、信诺(CI.US)和联合健康集团(UNH.US)是美国最大的药品福利管理公司。\n“失宠”领域\n赤字鹰派\n协议在很大程度上避开了增税，这是不希望增加燃油税的民主党人和不希望增加企业税的共和党人达成政治妥协的结果。为该法案提供资金的新收入来自立法部门，相当于从国会的沙发垫里搜刮钱。但这对于持续投资来说，不是一个长期的解决方案，且一些支出可能最终无法覆盖账单的总成本。\n加密货币\n该法案将增加美国国税局对加密货币交易的监管，美国税收联合委员会(Joint Committee on Taxation)曾估计，加密货币交易将在十年内筹集280亿美元。行业团体曾大力游说反对这一规定，称不可能遵守该条款。为了提高税收合规性，该法案将要求更多的公司向IRS报告数字资产交易。根据行业组织的说法，问题在于，一些像比如加密货币矿工的公司，似乎会受到新法律的约束，但他们没有技术能力收集他们被要求报告的信息。\n电动汽车\n电动汽车和充电站将在法案中得到适度的投资，但远低于拜登今年早些时候提出的1740亿美元。该法案包括75亿美元用于充电，这将为电动车车主在全国漫游时增加充电地点，另外还有25亿美元用于电动公交车投资。今年晚些时候，在一项只针对民主党的法案中，电动汽车仍有可能获得更大规模的投资，该法案将向能源和经济领域投资数万亿美元，由对富人和企业增税来支付。\n化学污染\n法案中为数不多的增税措施之一是重新恢复“超级基金污染者税”，这是一项针对化学公司清理危险废物场所的税收。据估计，该措施将在十年内筹集145亿美元。这项税收于1980年设立，曾在1995年到期。目前，该计划将征税至2031年。\n制药公司\n该基础设施方案还包括一项条款，要求制药商为药物浪费，即医生因过度包装而丢弃的药物，向退还联邦医疗保险资金。根据美国政府数据，2019年，联邦医疗保险为被丢弃的药物支付了超过7.52亿美元。数据显示，安进(AMGN.US)、Celgene Corp.和百时美施贵宝(BMY.US)生产的药物造成了超过1.5亿美元的浪费。\n清洁能源生产商\n该法案中不包括对清洁能源制造商的80亿美元税收抵免，而该项税收抵免一直是曼钦和拜登政府的首要任务。能够被风能涡轮机、太阳能电池板、地热能源设备、燃料电池、电动汽车、电网的制造商所使用的这一补助，被其支持者吹捧为在美国建立一个国家清洁能源制造基地的一种方式。该项补助曾出现在奥巴马执政时期的第一个复苏法案中，但拨出的23亿美元很快就用完了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173751135,"gmtCreate":1626689639827,"gmtModify":1703763391600,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173751135","repostId":"1180989534","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153465560,"gmtCreate":1625043603550,"gmtModify":1703850768115,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578895363297107","authorIdStr":"3578895363297107"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153465560","repostId":"2147894632","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}