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2025-03-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ [开心]

2025-03-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$

2023-03-11

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2022-12-12

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-12-10

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-12-09

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-12-08

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2022-12-08

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-12-07

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-06-26

$USA Truck(USAK)$👍

2022-06-19

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How should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?

2022-06-19

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Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.

2022-06-11

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2022-04-01

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Some Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967728941","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048208457,"gmtCreate":1656208889879,"gmtModify":1676535784914,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/USAK\">$USA Truck(USAK)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/USAK\">$USA Truck(USAK)$</a>👍","text":"$USA Truck(USAK)$👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048208457","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040327410,"gmtCreate":1655611705230,"gmtModify":1676535671672,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040327410","repostId":"2244848234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244848234","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655603924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244848234?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-19 09:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244848234","media":"格隆汇","summary":"近期美股调整背景下，A股韧性十足","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b><b></b></p><p><b>Investment Points</b></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><b>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</b></p><p><b>We believe that neither US stocks, US Treasury bonds, nor inflation will have a limited impact on A-shares.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the current market is fundamentally different from that of January-April. Structure is more important than position size. The Science and Technology Innovation Board is poised to lead new growth, and the Hang Seng Technology recovery has just begun. Seize the window to invest in gold at the bottom.</b></p><p><b>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</b></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>Learning from history and observing the \"GDP growth difference between China and the United States\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", we can find that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, that is, when the GDP growth difference between China and the United States has widened, Wind All A often significantly outperforms the S&P 500.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the domestic economy will gradually bottom out and recover as production and work resume, while the US economy will gradually slow down from its high level. The economic mismatch between China and the US will continue, and A-shares are expected to continue to outperform US stocks.</b></p><p><b>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</b></p><p>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention.<b>In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation has a limited impact on the stock market; the key to influencing the stock market is economic trends and the rise of industries.</b></p><p>After 1975, inflation in the United States climbed again to a new high, and the effective interest rate of the U.S. federal funds continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, U.S. stocks were not significantly affected. At the same time, small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of growth stocks is the rise of industries. At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><b>4. How to assess the impact of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>Based on the correlation between the performance of US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks at the beginning of the year, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise of US Treasury bonds.<b>However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly and significantly outperformed value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index yielded significant returns.</p><p>Logically, the core determinant of growth trends is the rise of industries. Similar to inflation, US Treasury bonds have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</p><p><b>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October.</b>The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</p><p>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</p><p>Firstly, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battleground for leading new growth. In terms of industry clues, semiconductors focus on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; new energy focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; digital economy focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and defense focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has turned a bottom and seized the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The pandemic repeatedly exceeded expectations; Industry progress fell short of</p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</h3></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October. The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</b></p><p>First, the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) is the main battleground for new growth. In terms of industry clues, it prioritizes sub-fields such as semiconductors, new energy, national defense, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine. For example, in semiconductors, it focuses on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; in new energy, it focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; in the digital economy, it focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and in defense, it focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology is entering a turning point and has just begun. It is important to seize the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</h3></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>In other words, the domestic economy is gradually bottoming out and recovering as production and work resume, while the US economy is gradually slowing down from a high level.</p><p><b>Looking back at the correlation between the economic misalignment between China and the United States and the trends of the Chinese and American stock markets, there is a positive correlation most of the time.</b>Observing the correlation between the \"GDP growth difference between China and the US\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", it can be found that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, the GDP growth difference between China and the US has widened, and at this time, Wind All A has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. The only different phase occurred in 2014-2015, when the US economy strengthened while the Chinese economy weakened, domestic monetary and fiscal policies were significantly eased, and off-market funds entered the market, propelling A-shares out of a liquidity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6bda2a40da9a508827021cf0b7047fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A typical period of economic misalignment between China and the United States, where the Chinese stock market outperformed the US stock market, occurred from the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007 and from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.</b></p><p><b>From the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007, China's economic growth significantly outperformed that of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares also outperformed that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP growth rate has fluctuated upwards, while the US GDP growth rate has fluctuated downwards, and the gap between the GDP growth rates of China and the US has been widening. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy 17 times between June 2004 and July 2006, while rate hike only twice in China. At that time, the United States tightened its monetary policy much more strongly than China in order to curb domestic inflationary pressures. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, affected by the tightening of economic downturn policies, US stocks as a whole showed a volatile trend with a slight increase; Meanwhile, the A-share market, driven by rapid economic growth, has experienced a profit-making bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2409478fb2d75cce21932be56c964b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, the domestic economy recovered ahead of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares was also better than that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q1 2009, while the US GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q2 2009. China's economy took the lead in recovering after the financial crisis. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009, and conducted the first round of quantitative easing. During this period, China cut interest rates four times and introduced a \"four trillion yuan\" fiscal stimulus. Overall, China's monetary and fiscal stimulus is no less intense than that of the United States. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, against the backdrop of stabilizing the domestic economy and strong policy stimulus, A-shares took the lead in stabilizing and rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d729e823827e4a59dd8311ccef9b2b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the economic mismatch between China and the United States will continue, and the domestic stock market is likely to rise independently of the US stock market.</b></p><p><b>Domestically, the economy is still in a phase of rapid recovery.</b>According to the latest economic data, the domestic PMI in May was 49.6, showing a clear upward trend of stabilization. Signs of a gradual improvement in the economy can also be gleaned from micro-level activities: First, policies to stabilize growth are being refined to industries and are being gradually implemented; Secondly, the national epidemic situation is gradually improving, and the resumption of work and production is accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb9152b6d97f16432d0e03d5af7cc9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2274cd3e9d15d8a88968c36ba900f6a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h1></h1><b>In the United States, signs of an economic recession are further emerging.</b>Data released by the University of Michigan shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.2 in June, down 8.2 from May and below market expectations. Data released by the National Association of Home Builders shows that real estate builder confidence fell to a 10-month low in June. In addition, financial markets are also trading the pressure of the US economic recession: (1) In the commodity market, the copper-gold ratio has dropped from around 5.4 to below 5; (2) In the bond market, the inversion of the maturity spread of US Treasury bonds frequently occurs; (3) Stock market: US stocks began to decline rapidly in mid-April due to expectations of a trading recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce772fb1833cff3c6ba38d2a9658c44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</h3></p><p><b>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention. In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation had a limited impact on the stock market, and the key dominant factors were economic trends and industrial rise.</b></p><p><b>Recent inflation in Europe and the United States has attracted market attention</b>The U.S. CPI rose 1% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year in May, marking the largest year-on-year increase since December 1981. The Eurozone CPI was 8.1% in May, setting a new record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29bc4f8ef2faec752362669edd0d886\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In fact, referring to the experience of Greater stagflation in the United States in the 1970s, rising inflation and interest rates had a limited impact on equity trends.</b>Learning from history, after 1975, inflation in the United States climbed to a new high again, and the effective interest rate of the US federal funds also continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, the performance of US stocks was not significantly impacted, and small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p><b>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of the equity market is the rise of industries.</b>At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0778162ad41f344fbb6b075dccc692c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7777245b9f07a09287e70fc659eb3f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From a style perspective, a high inflation environment does not necessarily lead to a weakening of small-cap stocks.</b>After 1975, US inflation peaked again. However, judging from the performance of US stocks, after 1975, small-cap stocks significantly outperformed mid-cap and large-cap stocks. Although high inflation increases cost pressures and has a more pronounced impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, industrial development trends cannot be ignored.</p><p>In the early 1970s, American manufacturing experienced an outflow due to lower labor costs in emerging economies. The manufacturing industry's share of GDP is declining, while the information industry stands in stark contrast, with its share of GDP showing a significant upward trend. Technology companies are mostly small and medium-sized enterprises. Although they are more significantly impacted by costs, the general trend of industrial development has offset the pressure of inflation, driving up corporate profits and stock prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f234d78be7dcc5033dbd9d295af5f899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>4. How to assess the impact of US</h3><b>Based on the recent correlation between US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise in US Treasury bonds. However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly, significantly outperforming value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index saw significant gains.</p><p><b>Logically, \"without industry, there is no bull market.\" The core factor determining the growth trend is the rise of industries. US Treasury bonds, similar to inflation, have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de8200e61b584b0175d2159d63568e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</h3></p><p><b>First, scientific and technological innovation leads new growth.</b></p><p>Given the current industry background, if 2019 to 2021 was the 1.0 era of hard technology investment, then looking ahead to the next 3-5 years, we believe that hard technology investment has entered the 2.0 era. Hard technologies, represented by semiconductors, new energy, defense equipment, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine, were characterized by choosing the right major tracks in the 1.0 investment era. In the 2.0 investment era, we believe that the core characteristic will be choosing the right sub-tracks.</p><p><b>Based on the inherent sense of the times of newly listed stocks, those listed in the past three years are the main force in the 2.0 era. Further combined with the hard technology positioning of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battlefield.</b></p><p><b>In terms of industry clues, the focus is on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials in the semiconductor sector; photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage in the new energy sector; industrial software and automotive electronics in the digital economy sector; and aero engines, missiles, and information technology in the defense sector.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee15fb0050494d677da95a9796d3860\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has reached a turning point.</b></p><p>On May 13, we published \"Only Gold Can Be Found After Weathering the Sand: Hang Seng Technology Faces a Turning Point,\" which highlighted the opportunity for a turning point in Hang Seng Technology and recommended strategic attention.</p><p>Hang Seng Technology's underlying logic is the resonance of three bottoms: policy bottom, profit bottom, and valuation bottom. Since late May, catalyzed by financial reports, it has entered the right side of the bottom.</p><p><b>In the short term, US stocks may cause some disturbances to Hong Kong stocks, but this is a golden window for buying at the bottom.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6770b7f1ed8879bcd681e13fab693548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb306d814ed773f39387043a04d88ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality stocks such as branches, the ride-hailing chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/494d377a52dc223a9d33681012724de0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae68357c00b64f09909ad4390bfddae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Risk Warning</p><p>1. The pandemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations;</p><p>2. Industry progress is below expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-19 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b><b></b></p><p><b>Investment Points</b></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><b>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</b></p><p><b>We believe that neither US stocks, US Treasury bonds, nor inflation will have a limited impact on A-shares.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the current market is fundamentally different from that of January-April. Structure is more important than position size. The Science and Technology Innovation Board is poised to lead new growth, and the Hang Seng Technology recovery has just begun. Seize the window to invest in gold at the bottom.</b></p><p><b>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</b></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>Learning from history and observing the \"GDP growth difference between China and the United States\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", we can find that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, that is, when the GDP growth difference between China and the United States has widened, Wind All A often significantly outperforms the S&P 500.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the domestic economy will gradually bottom out and recover as production and work resume, while the US economy will gradually slow down from its high level. The economic mismatch between China and the US will continue, and A-shares are expected to continue to outperform US stocks.</b></p><p><b>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</b></p><p>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention.<b>In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation has a limited impact on the stock market; the key to influencing the stock market is economic trends and the rise of industries.</b></p><p>After 1975, inflation in the United States climbed again to a new high, and the effective interest rate of the U.S. federal funds continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, U.S. stocks were not significantly affected. At the same time, small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of growth stocks is the rise of industries. At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><b>4. How to assess the impact of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>Based on the correlation between the performance of US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks at the beginning of the year, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise of US Treasury bonds.<b>However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly and significantly outperformed value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index yielded significant returns.</p><p>Logically, the core determinant of growth trends is the rise of industries. Similar to inflation, US Treasury bonds have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</p><p><b>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October.</b>The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</p><p>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</p><p>Firstly, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battleground for leading new growth. In terms of industry clues, semiconductors focus on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; new energy focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; digital economy focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and defense focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has turned a bottom and seized the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The pandemic repeatedly exceeded expectations; Industry progress fell short of</p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</h3></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October. The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</b></p><p>First, the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) is the main battleground for new growth. In terms of industry clues, it prioritizes sub-fields such as semiconductors, new energy, national defense, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine. For example, in semiconductors, it focuses on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; in new energy, it focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; in the digital economy, it focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and in defense, it focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology is entering a turning point and has just begun. It is important to seize the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</h3></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>In other words, the domestic economy is gradually bottoming out and recovering as production and work resume, while the US economy is gradually slowing down from a high level.</p><p><b>Looking back at the correlation between the economic misalignment between China and the United States and the trends of the Chinese and American stock markets, there is a positive correlation most of the time.</b>Observing the correlation between the \"GDP growth difference between China and the US\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", it can be found that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, the GDP growth difference between China and the US has widened, and at this time, Wind All A has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. The only different phase occurred in 2014-2015, when the US economy strengthened while the Chinese economy weakened, domestic monetary and fiscal policies were significantly eased, and off-market funds entered the market, propelling A-shares out of a liquidity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6bda2a40da9a508827021cf0b7047fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A typical period of economic misalignment between China and the United States, where the Chinese stock market outperformed the US stock market, occurred from the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007 and from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.</b></p><p><b>From the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007, China's economic growth significantly outperformed that of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares also outperformed that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP growth rate has fluctuated upwards, while the US GDP growth rate has fluctuated downwards, and the gap between the GDP growth rates of China and the US has been widening. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy 17 times between June 2004 and July 2006, while rate hike only twice in China. At that time, the United States tightened its monetary policy much more strongly than China in order to curb domestic inflationary pressures. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, affected by the tightening of economic downturn policies, US stocks as a whole showed a volatile trend with a slight increase; Meanwhile, the A-share market, driven by rapid economic growth, has experienced a profit-making bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2409478fb2d75cce21932be56c964b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, the domestic economy recovered ahead of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares was also better than that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q1 2009, while the US GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q2 2009. China's economy took the lead in recovering after the financial crisis. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009, and conducted the first round of quantitative easing. During this period, China cut interest rates four times and introduced a \"four trillion yuan\" fiscal stimulus. Overall, China's monetary and fiscal stimulus is no less intense than that of the United States. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, against the backdrop of stabilizing the domestic economy and strong policy stimulus, A-shares took the lead in stabilizing and rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d729e823827e4a59dd8311ccef9b2b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the economic mismatch between China and the United States will continue, and the domestic stock market is likely to rise independently of the US stock market.</b></p><p><b>Domestically, the economy is still in a phase of rapid recovery.</b>According to the latest economic data, the domestic PMI in May was 49.6, showing a clear upward trend of stabilization. Signs of a gradual improvement in the economy can also be gleaned from micro-level activities: First, policies to stabilize growth are being refined to industries and are being gradually implemented; Secondly, the national epidemic situation is gradually improving, and the resumption of work and production is accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb9152b6d97f16432d0e03d5af7cc9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2274cd3e9d15d8a88968c36ba900f6a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h1></h1><b>In the United States, signs of an economic recession are further emerging.</b>Data released by the University of Michigan shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.2 in June, down 8.2 from May and below market expectations. Data released by the National Association of Home Builders shows that real estate builder confidence fell to a 10-month low in June. In addition, financial markets are also trading the pressure of the US economic recession: (1) In the commodity market, the copper-gold ratio has dropped from around 5.4 to below 5; (2) In the bond market, the inversion of the maturity spread of US Treasury bonds frequently occurs; (3) Stock market: US stocks began to decline rapidly in mid-April due to expectations of a trading recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce772fb1833cff3c6ba38d2a9658c44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</h3></p><p><b>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention. In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation had a limited impact on the stock market, and the key dominant factors were economic trends and industrial rise.</b></p><p><b>Recent inflation in Europe and the United States has attracted market attention</b>The U.S. CPI rose 1% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year in May, marking the largest year-on-year increase since December 1981. The Eurozone CPI was 8.1% in May, setting a new record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29bc4f8ef2faec752362669edd0d886\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In fact, referring to the experience of Greater stagflation in the United States in the 1970s, rising inflation and interest rates had a limited impact on equity trends.</b>Learning from history, after 1975, inflation in the United States climbed to a new high again, and the effective interest rate of the US federal funds also continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, the performance of US stocks was not significantly impacted, and small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p><b>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of the equity market is the rise of industries.</b>At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0778162ad41f344fbb6b075dccc692c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7777245b9f07a09287e70fc659eb3f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From a style perspective, a high inflation environment does not necessarily lead to a weakening of small-cap stocks.</b>After 1975, US inflation peaked again. However, judging from the performance of US stocks, after 1975, small-cap stocks significantly outperformed mid-cap and large-cap stocks. Although high inflation increases cost pressures and has a more pronounced impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, industrial development trends cannot be ignored.</p><p>In the early 1970s, American manufacturing experienced an outflow due to lower labor costs in emerging economies. The manufacturing industry's share of GDP is declining, while the information industry stands in stark contrast, with its share of GDP showing a significant upward trend. Technology companies are mostly small and medium-sized enterprises. Although they are more significantly impacted by costs, the general trend of industrial development has offset the pressure of inflation, driving up corporate profits and stock prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f234d78be7dcc5033dbd9d295af5f899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>4. How to assess the impact of US</h3><b>Based on the recent correlation between US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise in US Treasury bonds. However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly, significantly outperforming value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index saw significant gains.</p><p><b>Logically, \"without industry, there is no bull market.\" The core factor determining the growth trend is the rise of industries. US Treasury bonds, similar to inflation, have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de8200e61b584b0175d2159d63568e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</h3></p><p><b>First, scientific and technological innovation leads new growth.</b></p><p>Given the current industry background, if 2019 to 2021 was the 1.0 era of hard technology investment, then looking ahead to the next 3-5 years, we believe that hard technology investment has entered the 2.0 era. Hard technologies, represented by semiconductors, new energy, defense equipment, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine, were characterized by choosing the right major tracks in the 1.0 investment era. In the 2.0 investment era, we believe that the core characteristic will be choosing the right sub-tracks.</p><p><b>Based on the inherent sense of the times of newly listed stocks, those listed in the past three years are the main force in the 2.0 era. Further combined with the hard technology positioning of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battlefield.</b></p><p><b>In terms of industry clues, the focus is on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials in the semiconductor sector; photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage in the new energy sector; industrial software and automotive electronics in the digital economy sector; and aero engines, missiles, and information technology in the defense sector.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee15fb0050494d677da95a9796d3860\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has reached a turning point.</b></p><p>On May 13, we published \"Only Gold Can Be Found After Weathering the Sand: Hang Seng Technology Faces a Turning Point,\" which highlighted the opportunity for a turning point in Hang Seng Technology and recommended strategic attention.</p><p>Hang Seng Technology's underlying logic is the resonance of three bottoms: policy bottom, profit bottom, and valuation bottom. Since late May, catalyzed by financial reports, it has entered the right side of the bottom.</p><p><b>In the short term, US stocks may cause some disturbances to Hong Kong stocks, but this is a golden window for buying at the bottom.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6770b7f1ed8879bcd681e13fab693548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb306d814ed773f39387043a04d88ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality stocks such as branches, the ride-hailing chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/494d377a52dc223a9d33681012724de0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae68357c00b64f09909ad4390bfddae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Risk Warning</p><p>1. The pandemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations;</p><p>2. Industry progress is below expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{"399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2244848234","content_text":"摘要  投资要点回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？1、乱云飞渡仍从容我们认为无论美股、美债还是通胀，对A股影响有限。换言之，当前市场跟1-4月有本质区别，结构比仓位重要，科创板引领新成长蓄势待发，恒生科技修复刚刚开始，把握底部黄金布局窗口。2、如何看美股影响近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。以史为鉴，观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”，可以发现，2000年以来中国经济增长快于美国的时候，也即中美GDP增速差扩张，万得全A往往明显跑赢标普500。展望后续，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓，中美经济错位将进一步延续，A股有望继续强于美股。3、如何看通胀影响近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，影响股市的关键是经济走势和产业崛起。1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，而美股却并未受到明显影响，与此同时，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长股走势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。4、如何看美债影响基于年初美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股表现的影响同样有限。2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，且大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板收益显著。逻辑上，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。5、三大战略配置链展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。其一，科创板引领新成长是主战场，产业线索上，半导体关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防关注航空发动机、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技转折底，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。风险提示：疫情反复超预期；产业进展低预期。1、乱云飞渡仍从容回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。其一，科创板是新成长主战场，产业线索上优选半导体、新能源、国防、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药子领域，如半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技迎转折底，刚刚开始，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？2、如何看美股影响近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。也即，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓。回顾中美经济错位和中美股市走势的相关性，绝大部分时候呈现正相关。观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”关联度，可以发现，2000年以来当中国经济增长快于美国的时候，中美GDP增速差扩张，此时万得全A明显跑赢标普500。唯一不同的阶段出现在2014-2015年，彼时美国经济走强而中国经济走弱，国内货币财政政策大幅宽松，场外资金入市推动A股走出了流动性牛市。典型的中美经济错位、中国股市跑赢于美股的阶段出现在2004年底-2007年三季度、2008年三季度-2009年三季度。2004年底-2007年三季度，国内经济增长显著优于美国，A股表现整体也好于美股。首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP增速震荡上行，而美国GDP增速震荡下行，中美GDP增速差不断扩张。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2004年6月至2006年7月加息了17次，而国内仅仅加息了2次，当时美国为了抑制国内通胀压力货币政策收紧的力度远强于中国。最后，从股市表现来看，受经济回落政策收紧的影响，美股整体呈现震荡走势，小幅上涨；而A股则在经济快速增长的推动下，走出了一轮盈利牛。2008年三季度-2009年三季度，国内经济领先美国复苏，A股表现整体也好于美股。首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP于2009年Q1触底企稳，而美国GDP于2009年Q2触底企稳，金融危机后中国经济率先开始复苏。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2008年Q3-2009年Q3降息了三次，并进行了第一轮量化宽松。而中国在此期间降息了四次，并推出了“四万亿”财政刺激。整体来看，国内的货币财政的刺激力度并不亚于美国。最后，从股市表现来看，国内经济企稳、政策大力刺激的背景之下，A股率先走出企稳上涨的行情。展望未来，中美经济错位将进一步延续，国内股市独立于美股走出上涨行情的可能性较大。国内方面，经济仍处于快速修复的阶段。从最新的经济数据来看，国内5月PMI为49.6，出现明显企稳向上的趋势。从微观活动中也可以窥探出经济逐步向好的迹象：其一，稳增长政策细化到产业，且逐步落地；其二，全国疫情逐渐好转，复工复产加速推进。美国方面，经济衰退迹象进一步显现。密歇根大学公布的数据显示，美国6月消费者信心指数跌至50.2，较5月相比下跌了8.2，低于市场预期。美国全国住宅建筑商协会公布的数据显示，6月份房地产建筑商信心降至10个月的低点。此外，金融市场也在交易美国经济衰退的压力：（1）商品市场，铜金比从5.4左右下降至5以下；（2）债券市场，美债期限利差倒挂频繁出现；（3）股票市场，美股从4月中旬开始快速走低交易衰退预期。3、如何看通胀影响近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，关键主导因素则是经济走势和产业崛起。近期欧美通胀引起市场关注。5月美国CPI环比上涨1%，同比上涨8.6%，同比涨幅再创1981年12月以来最大值。5月欧元区CPI为8.1%，续创历史新高。事实上，参考美国70年代大滞涨的经验，通胀和利率上行对权益走势影响有限。以史为鉴，1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，但是观察美股的表现并未受到大幅冲击，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定权益市场趋势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。从风格角度，高通胀环境不一定导致小市值风格走弱。1975年之后，美国通胀再攀高峰，然而从美股表现来看，75年之后小市值风格明显优于中市值和大市值风格。高通胀尽管提高成本压力，对中小企业冲击更明显，但不能忽视产业发展趋势。70年代初，由于新兴经济体更低廉的劳动力成本，美国制造业出现外流趋势。制造业占GDP的比重不断下降，而信息业与之形成明显对比，其占GDP的比重呈现明显上升趋势。科技型企业以中小企业居多，尽管受成本端的冲击更为显著，但产业发展大趋势对冲了通胀的压力，带动企业盈利和股价的上升。4、如何看美债影响基于近期美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股走势影响有限。2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现，创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板涨幅显著。逻辑上，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。5、三大战略配置链其一，科创引领新成长。结合当前产业背景，如果说2019年至2021年是硬科技投资的1.0时代，那么展望未来3-5年我们认为硬科技投资进入了2.0时代。以半导体、新能源、国防装备、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药为代表的硬科技，在1.0投资时代的特征是选对大赛道，那么在2.0投资时代我们认为核心特征将是选对子赛道。基于次新股天然的时代感，近三年上市的次新股是2.0时代的主力军，进一步结合科创板的硬科技定位，科创板则是主战场。在产业线索上，半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技转折底。5月13日我们发布《大浪淘沙始见金：恒生科技迎转折底》提示恒生科技的转折底机会，建议战略关注。恒生科技的底层逻辑是三底共振，也即政策底、盈利底、估值底，5月下旬以来在财报催化下，进入底部右侧。短期节奏上，美股或对港股有所扰动，但正是底部布局的黄金窗口。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股分行、出行链、基建和快递等。6、 风险提示1、疫情反复超预期；2、产业进展低预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399006":1,"000001.SH":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040327262,"gmtCreate":1655611688556,"gmtModify":1676535671664,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8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10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130766759","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20.</b>Because June 19th (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It's worth noting that this holiday is quite \"young,\" having only been legalized last year, making it the first in the United States since Martin Luther King Jr. Day in 1983.<b>The first newly added national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 20, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 21.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed an executive order designating June 19 of each year as a national statutory holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The holiday is named \"Juneteenth,\" a combination of June and Nineteenth. Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden and \"Grandma Juneteenth\" Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps precisely because Juneteenth is so \"young,\" at this time last year, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) had a \"disagreement\" with the U.S. stock market over this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are open as usual.</b>The SEC stated, \"Exchanges decide on their own operating status during federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours.\" The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth would be closed for the holidays in 2022.</p><p>It appears that such \"disagreements\" will not repeat themselves this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-15 10:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20.</b>Because June 19th (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It's worth noting that this holiday is quite \"young,\" having only been legalized last year, making it the first in the United States since Martin Luther King Jr. Day in 1983.<b>The first newly added national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 20, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 21.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed an executive order designating June 19 of each year as a national statutory holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The holiday is named \"Juneteenth,\" a combination of June and Nineteenth. Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden and \"Grandma Juneteenth\" Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps precisely because Juneteenth is so \"young,\" at this time last year, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) had a \"disagreement\" with the U.S. stock market over this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are open as usual.</b>The SEC stated, \"Exchanges decide on their own operating status during federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours.\" The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth would be closed for the holidays in 2022.</p><p>It appears that such \"disagreements\" will not repeat themselves this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3beebfa3e0137570abe14d50f470080d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130766759","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：美股将于6月20日（星期一）休市，因为6月19日（星期日）是美国的联邦假日（六月节）。值得一提的是，这一节日相当“年轻”，去年才被合法化，是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股6月20日（周一）休市，6月21日（周二）起照常开市。港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍2021年6月17日，美国总统拜登签署法令，将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结，节日名称为“Juneteenth”，该名称取自June（六月）和Nineteenth（十九）的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”，去年的这个时候，美国SEC（证券交易委员会）还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”：SEC放假，而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。SEC表示：“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态，我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称，将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056074993,"gmtCreate":1654916214912,"gmtModify":1676535533926,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056074993","repostId":"2242855582","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013710557,"gmtCreate":1648774894598,"gmtModify":1676534395680,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579240004068160","idStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013710557","repostId":"1157160956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157160956","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648772640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157160956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 08:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Some Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157160956","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 1st news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">Shimao Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">Kaisa Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">China Aoyuan</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">Aoyuan Health</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">Fantasia Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">Colorful Life</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">Sunshine 100 China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">Modern Real Estate</a>Trading is suspended in Hong Kong. Previously, all of them had announced that they would delay the disclosure of their 2021 full-year results.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-01 08:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 1st news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">Shimao Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">Kaisa Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">China Aoyuan</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">Aoyuan Health</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">Fantasia Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">Colorful Life</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">Sunshine 100 China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">Modern Real Estate</a>Trading is suspended in Hong Kong. Previously, all of them had announced that they would delay the disclosure of their 2021 full-year results.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69cb99414ad545d3e125459e030ab33d","relate_stocks":{"09983":"建业新生活","BK1229":"房地产经营公司","06958":"正荣服务","09979":"绿城管理控股","01971":"弘阳服务","BK1542":"内地物业管理股","BK1583":"高瓴概念","BK1148":"建筑与工程"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157160956","content_text":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01971":0.9,"09983":0.9,"09979":0.9,"06958":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9013710557,"gmtCreate":1648774894598,"gmtModify":1676534395680,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013710557","repostId":"1157160956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157160956","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648772640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157160956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 08:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Some Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157160956","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 1st news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">Shimao Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">Kaisa Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">China Aoyuan</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">Aoyuan Health</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">Fantasia Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">Colorful Life</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">Sunshine 100 China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">Modern Real Estate</a>Trading is suspended in Hong Kong. Previously, all of them had announced that they would delay the disclosure of their 2021 full-year results.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome Hong Kong real estate and property management stocks suspended from trading in Hong Kong\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-01 08:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 1st news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00813\">Shimao Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01638\">Kaisa Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">China Aoyuan</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03662\">Aoyuan Health</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01777\">Fantasia Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01778\">Colorful Life</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02608\">Sunshine 100 China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01107\">Modern Real Estate</a>Trading is suspended in Hong Kong. Previously, all of them had announced that they would delay the disclosure of their 2021 full-year results.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69cb99414ad545d3e125459e030ab33d","relate_stocks":{"09983":"建业新生活","BK1229":"房地产经营公司","06958":"正荣服务","09979":"绿城管理控股","01971":"弘阳服务","BK1542":"内地物业管理股","BK1583":"高瓴概念","BK1148":"建筑与工程"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157160956","content_text":"4月1日讯，世茂集团、佳兆业集团、中国奥园、奥园健康、融创中国、花样年控股、彩生活、阳光100中国、当代置业在香港暂停交易。此前均发布公告称将延迟披露2021年全年业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01971":0.9,"09983":0.9,"09979":0.9,"06958":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040327410,"gmtCreate":1655611705230,"gmtModify":1676535671672,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040327410","repostId":"2244848234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244848234","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655603924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244848234?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-19 09:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244848234","media":"格隆汇","summary":"近期美股调整背景下，A股韧性十足","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b><b></b></p><p><b>Investment Points</b></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><b>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</b></p><p><b>We believe that neither US stocks, US Treasury bonds, nor inflation will have a limited impact on A-shares.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the current market is fundamentally different from that of January-April. Structure is more important than position size. The Science and Technology Innovation Board is poised to lead new growth, and the Hang Seng Technology recovery has just begun. Seize the window to invest in gold at the bottom.</b></p><p><b>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</b></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>Learning from history and observing the \"GDP growth difference between China and the United States\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", we can find that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, that is, when the GDP growth difference between China and the United States has widened, Wind All A often significantly outperforms the S&P 500.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the domestic economy will gradually bottom out and recover as production and work resume, while the US economy will gradually slow down from its high level. The economic mismatch between China and the US will continue, and A-shares are expected to continue to outperform US stocks.</b></p><p><b>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</b></p><p>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention.<b>In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation has a limited impact on the stock market; the key to influencing the stock market is economic trends and the rise of industries.</b></p><p>After 1975, inflation in the United States climbed again to a new high, and the effective interest rate of the U.S. federal funds continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, U.S. stocks were not significantly affected. At the same time, small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of growth stocks is the rise of industries. At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><b>4. How to assess the impact of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>Based on the correlation between the performance of US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks at the beginning of the year, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise of US Treasury bonds.<b>However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly and significantly outperformed value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index yielded significant returns.</p><p>Logically, the core determinant of growth trends is the rise of industries. Similar to inflation, US Treasury bonds have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</p><p><b>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October.</b>The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</p><p>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</p><p>Firstly, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battleground for leading new growth. In terms of industry clues, semiconductors focus on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; new energy focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; digital economy focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and defense focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has turned a bottom and seized the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The pandemic repeatedly exceeded expectations; Industry progress fell short of</p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</h3></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October. The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</b></p><p>First, the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) is the main battleground for new growth. In terms of industry clues, it prioritizes sub-fields such as semiconductors, new energy, national defense, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine. For example, in semiconductors, it focuses on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; in new energy, it focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; in the digital economy, it focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and in defense, it focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology is entering a turning point and has just begun. It is important to seize the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</h3></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>In other words, the domestic economy is gradually bottoming out and recovering as production and work resume, while the US economy is gradually slowing down from a high level.</p><p><b>Looking back at the correlation between the economic misalignment between China and the United States and the trends of the Chinese and American stock markets, there is a positive correlation most of the time.</b>Observing the correlation between the \"GDP growth difference between China and the US\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", it can be found that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, the GDP growth difference between China and the US has widened, and at this time, Wind All A has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. The only different phase occurred in 2014-2015, when the US economy strengthened while the Chinese economy weakened, domestic monetary and fiscal policies were significantly eased, and off-market funds entered the market, propelling A-shares out of a liquidity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6bda2a40da9a508827021cf0b7047fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A typical period of economic misalignment between China and the United States, where the Chinese stock market outperformed the US stock market, occurred from the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007 and from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.</b></p><p><b>From the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007, China's economic growth significantly outperformed that of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares also outperformed that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP growth rate has fluctuated upwards, while the US GDP growth rate has fluctuated downwards, and the gap between the GDP growth rates of China and the US has been widening. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy 17 times between June 2004 and July 2006, while rate hike only twice in China. At that time, the United States tightened its monetary policy much more strongly than China in order to curb domestic inflationary pressures. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, affected by the tightening of economic downturn policies, US stocks as a whole showed a volatile trend with a slight increase; Meanwhile, the A-share market, driven by rapid economic growth, has experienced a profit-making bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2409478fb2d75cce21932be56c964b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, the domestic economy recovered ahead of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares was also better than that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q1 2009, while the US GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q2 2009. China's economy took the lead in recovering after the financial crisis. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009, and conducted the first round of quantitative easing. During this period, China cut interest rates four times and introduced a \"four trillion yuan\" fiscal stimulus. Overall, China's monetary and fiscal stimulus is no less intense than that of the United States. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, against the backdrop of stabilizing the domestic economy and strong policy stimulus, A-shares took the lead in stabilizing and rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d729e823827e4a59dd8311ccef9b2b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the economic mismatch between China and the United States will continue, and the domestic stock market is likely to rise independently of the US stock market.</b></p><p><b>Domestically, the economy is still in a phase of rapid recovery.</b>According to the latest economic data, the domestic PMI in May was 49.6, showing a clear upward trend of stabilization. Signs of a gradual improvement in the economy can also be gleaned from micro-level activities: First, policies to stabilize growth are being refined to industries and are being gradually implemented; Secondly, the national epidemic situation is gradually improving, and the resumption of work and production is accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb9152b6d97f16432d0e03d5af7cc9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2274cd3e9d15d8a88968c36ba900f6a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h1></h1><b>In the United States, signs of an economic recession are further emerging.</b>Data released by the University of Michigan shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.2 in June, down 8.2 from May and below market expectations. Data released by the National Association of Home Builders shows that real estate builder confidence fell to a 10-month low in June. In addition, financial markets are also trading the pressure of the US economic recession: (1) In the commodity market, the copper-gold ratio has dropped from around 5.4 to below 5; (2) In the bond market, the inversion of the maturity spread of US Treasury bonds frequently occurs; (3) Stock market: US stocks began to decline rapidly in mid-April due to expectations of a trading recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce772fb1833cff3c6ba38d2a9658c44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</h3></p><p><b>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention. In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation had a limited impact on the stock market, and the key dominant factors were economic trends and industrial rise.</b></p><p><b>Recent inflation in Europe and the United States has attracted market attention</b>The U.S. CPI rose 1% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year in May, marking the largest year-on-year increase since December 1981. The Eurozone CPI was 8.1% in May, setting a new record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29bc4f8ef2faec752362669edd0d886\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In fact, referring to the experience of Greater stagflation in the United States in the 1970s, rising inflation and interest rates had a limited impact on equity trends.</b>Learning from history, after 1975, inflation in the United States climbed to a new high again, and the effective interest rate of the US federal funds also continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, the performance of US stocks was not significantly impacted, and small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p><b>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of the equity market is the rise of industries.</b>At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0778162ad41f344fbb6b075dccc692c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7777245b9f07a09287e70fc659eb3f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From a style perspective, a high inflation environment does not necessarily lead to a weakening of small-cap stocks.</b>After 1975, US inflation peaked again. However, judging from the performance of US stocks, after 1975, small-cap stocks significantly outperformed mid-cap and large-cap stocks. Although high inflation increases cost pressures and has a more pronounced impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, industrial development trends cannot be ignored.</p><p>In the early 1970s, American manufacturing experienced an outflow due to lower labor costs in emerging economies. The manufacturing industry's share of GDP is declining, while the information industry stands in stark contrast, with its share of GDP showing a significant upward trend. Technology companies are mostly small and medium-sized enterprises. Although they are more significantly impacted by costs, the general trend of industrial development has offset the pressure of inflation, driving up corporate profits and stock prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f234d78be7dcc5033dbd9d295af5f899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>4. How to assess the impact of US</h3><b>Based on the recent correlation between US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise in US Treasury bonds. However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly, significantly outperforming value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index saw significant gains.</p><p><b>Logically, \"without industry, there is no bull market.\" The core factor determining the growth trend is the rise of industries. US Treasury bonds, similar to inflation, have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de8200e61b584b0175d2159d63568e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</h3></p><p><b>First, scientific and technological innovation leads new growth.</b></p><p>Given the current industry background, if 2019 to 2021 was the 1.0 era of hard technology investment, then looking ahead to the next 3-5 years, we believe that hard technology investment has entered the 2.0 era. Hard technologies, represented by semiconductors, new energy, defense equipment, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine, were characterized by choosing the right major tracks in the 1.0 investment era. In the 2.0 investment era, we believe that the core characteristic will be choosing the right sub-tracks.</p><p><b>Based on the inherent sense of the times of newly listed stocks, those listed in the past three years are the main force in the 2.0 era. Further combined with the hard technology positioning of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battlefield.</b></p><p><b>In terms of industry clues, the focus is on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials in the semiconductor sector; photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage in the new energy sector; industrial software and automotive electronics in the digital economy sector; and aero engines, missiles, and information technology in the defense sector.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee15fb0050494d677da95a9796d3860\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has reached a turning point.</b></p><p>On May 13, we published \"Only Gold Can Be Found After Weathering the Sand: Hang Seng Technology Faces a Turning Point,\" which highlighted the opportunity for a turning point in Hang Seng Technology and recommended strategic attention.</p><p>Hang Seng Technology's underlying logic is the resonance of three bottoms: policy bottom, profit bottom, and valuation bottom. Since late May, catalyzed by financial reports, it has entered the right side of the bottom.</p><p><b>In the short term, US stocks may cause some disturbances to Hong Kong stocks, but this is a golden window for buying at the bottom.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6770b7f1ed8879bcd681e13fab693548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb306d814ed773f39387043a04d88ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality stocks such as branches, the ride-hailing chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/494d377a52dc223a9d33681012724de0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae68357c00b64f09909ad4390bfddae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Risk Warning</p><p>1. The pandemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations;</p><p>2. Industry progress is below expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow should we view the impact of US stocks and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-19 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b><b></b></p><p><b>Investment Points</b></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><b>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</b></p><p><b>We believe that neither US stocks, US Treasury bonds, nor inflation will have a limited impact on A-shares.</b></p><p><b>In other words, the current market is fundamentally different from that of January-April. Structure is more important than position size. The Science and Technology Innovation Board is poised to lead new growth, and the Hang Seng Technology recovery has just begun. Seize the window to invest in gold at the bottom.</b></p><p><b>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</b></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>Learning from history and observing the \"GDP growth difference between China and the United States\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", we can find that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, that is, when the GDP growth difference between China and the United States has widened, Wind All A often significantly outperforms the S&P 500.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, the domestic economy will gradually bottom out and recover as production and work resume, while the US economy will gradually slow down from its high level. The economic mismatch between China and the US will continue, and A-shares are expected to continue to outperform US stocks.</b></p><p><b>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</b></p><p>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention.<b>In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation has a limited impact on the stock market; the key to influencing the stock market is economic trends and the rise of industries.</b></p><p>After 1975, inflation in the United States climbed again to a new high, and the effective interest rate of the U.S. federal funds continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, U.S. stocks were not significantly affected. At the same time, small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of growth stocks is the rise of industries. At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><b>4. How to assess the impact of US Treasury bonds</b></p><p>Based on the correlation between the performance of US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks at the beginning of the year, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise of US Treasury bonds.<b>However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly and significantly outperformed value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index yielded significant returns.</p><p>Logically, the core determinant of growth trends is the rise of industries. Similar to inflation, US Treasury bonds have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</p><p><b>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October.</b>The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</p><p>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</p><p>Firstly, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battleground for leading new growth. In terms of industry clues, semiconductors focus on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; new energy focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; digital economy focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and defense focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has turned a bottom and seized the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The pandemic repeatedly exceeded expectations; Industry progress fell short of</p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1. Despite the chaos, one remains calm.</h3></p><p><b>Looking back at the period from January to April, the \"three lows to stabilize growth\" policy has been fully validated. Since May, we have proposed a new growth reversal, and the excess returns of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology have been</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the STAR Market to lead a double boost in the newly growing Davis market, as well as the recovery in Hang Seng Technology, to further unfold from July to October. The reason is that, on the one hand, it benefits from performance catalysts; On the other hand, after the recent release of risks in the US stock market, overseas markets will also tend to stabilize.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hang Seng Technology, it is recommended to seize the gold investment window at the bottom.</b></p><p>First, the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) is the main battleground for new growth. In terms of industry clues, it prioritizes sub-fields such as semiconductors, new energy, national defense, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine. For example, in semiconductors, it focuses on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials; in new energy, it focuses on photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage; in the digital economy, it focuses on industrial software and automotive electronics; and in defense, it focuses on aero engines, missiles, and information technology.</p><p>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology is entering a turning point and has just begun. It is important to seize the opportunity to buy at the bottom provided by the disturbances in the US stock market.</p><p>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality joint-stock banks, the travel chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</p><p><b>Recent disturbances in US stocks, inflation, and US Treasury bonds have become the focus of market attention. Firstly, it can be seen that A-shares are very resilient compared to US stocks. How should we understand this? Secondly, what are your thoughts on the impact of global inflation and US Treasury bonds on A-shares?</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>2. How to view the impact on US stocks</h3></p><p><b>Against the backdrop of the recent correction in US stocks, we have observed that A-shares are very resilient, and the misalignment between the Chinese and US economies may be the main reason behind this.</b>In other words, the domestic economy is gradually bottoming out and recovering as production and work resume, while the US economy is gradually slowing down from a high level.</p><p><b>Looking back at the correlation between the economic misalignment between China and the United States and the trends of the Chinese and American stock markets, there is a positive correlation most of the time.</b>Observing the correlation between the \"GDP growth difference between China and the US\" and the \"Wind All A/S&P 500\", it can be found that since 2000, when China's economic growth has been faster than that of the United States, the GDP growth difference between China and the US has widened, and at this time, Wind All A has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. The only different phase occurred in 2014-2015, when the US economy strengthened while the Chinese economy weakened, domestic monetary and fiscal policies were significantly eased, and off-market funds entered the market, propelling A-shares out of a liquidity bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6bda2a40da9a508827021cf0b7047fe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A typical period of economic misalignment between China and the United States, where the Chinese stock market outperformed the US stock market, occurred from the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007 and from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.</b></p><p><b>From the end of 2004 to the third quarter of 2007, China's economic growth significantly outperformed that of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares also outperformed that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP growth rate has fluctuated upwards, while the US GDP growth rate has fluctuated downwards, and the gap between the GDP growth rates of China and the US has been widening. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve tightened its monetary policy 17 times between June 2004 and July 2006, while rate hike only twice in China. At that time, the United States tightened its monetary policy much more strongly than China in order to curb domestic inflationary pressures. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, affected by the tightening of economic downturn policies, US stocks as a whole showed a volatile trend with a slight increase; Meanwhile, the A-share market, driven by rapid economic growth, has experienced a profit-making bull market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2409478fb2d75cce21932be56c964b36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, the domestic economy recovered ahead of the United States, and the overall performance of A-shares was also better than that of US stocks.</b>First, looking at the Chinese and American economies, China's GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q1 2009, while the US GDP bottomed out and stabilized in Q2 2009. China's economy took the lead in recovering after the financial crisis. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009, and conducted the first round of quantitative easing. During this period, China cut interest rates four times and introduced a \"four trillion yuan\" fiscal stimulus. Overall, China's monetary and fiscal stimulus is no less intense than that of the United States. Finally, in terms of stock market performance, against the backdrop of stabilizing the domestic economy and strong policy stimulus, A-shares took the lead in stabilizing and rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d729e823827e4a59dd8311ccef9b2b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, the economic mismatch between China and the United States will continue, and the domestic stock market is likely to rise independently of the US stock market.</b></p><p><b>Domestically, the economy is still in a phase of rapid recovery.</b>According to the latest economic data, the domestic PMI in May was 49.6, showing a clear upward trend of stabilization. Signs of a gradual improvement in the economy can also be gleaned from micro-level activities: First, policies to stabilize growth are being refined to industries and are being gradually implemented; Secondly, the national epidemic situation is gradually improving, and the resumption of work and production is accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb9152b6d97f16432d0e03d5af7cc9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2274cd3e9d15d8a88968c36ba900f6a5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h1></h1><b>In the United States, signs of an economic recession are further emerging.</b>Data released by the University of Michigan shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.2 in June, down 8.2 from May and below market expectations. Data released by the National Association of Home Builders shows that real estate builder confidence fell to a 10-month low in June. In addition, financial markets are also trading the pressure of the US economic recession: (1) In the commodity market, the copper-gold ratio has dropped from around 5.4 to below 5; (2) In the bond market, the inversion of the maturity spread of US Treasury bonds frequently occurs; (3) Stock market: US stocks began to decline rapidly in mid-April due to expectations of a trading recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce772fb1833cff3c6ba38d2a9658c44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>3. How to assess the impact of inflation</h3></p><p><b>Recent better-than-expected inflation data from Europe and the United States has heightened market attention. In fact, using the review during the Greater stagflation era in the United States in the 1970s, we can find that inflation had a limited impact on the stock market, and the key dominant factors were economic trends and industrial rise.</b></p><p><b>Recent inflation in Europe and the United States has attracted market attention</b>The U.S. CPI rose 1% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year in May, marking the largest year-on-year increase since December 1981. The Eurozone CPI was 8.1% in May, setting a new record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29bc4f8ef2faec752362669edd0d886\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In fact, referring to the experience of Greater stagflation in the United States in the 1970s, rising inflation and interest rates had a limited impact on equity trends.</b>Learning from history, after 1975, inflation in the United States climbed to a new high again, and the effective interest rate of the US federal funds also continued to rise as inflationary pressures intensified. However, the performance of US stocks was not significantly impacted, and small-cap technology stocks, mainly on the Nasdaq, even experienced a magnificent upward trend.</p><p><b>The reason is that \"without industry, there is no bull market,\" and the key to determining the trend of the equity market is the rise of industries.</b>At that time, the United States was in the midst of the third wave of the technological revolution, and the semiconductor and electronic computer industries were booming.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0778162ad41f344fbb6b075dccc692c0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7777245b9f07a09287e70fc659eb3f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>From a style perspective, a high inflation environment does not necessarily lead to a weakening of small-cap stocks.</b>After 1975, US inflation peaked again. However, judging from the performance of US stocks, after 1975, small-cap stocks significantly outperformed mid-cap and large-cap stocks. Although high inflation increases cost pressures and has a more pronounced impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, industrial development trends cannot be ignored.</p><p>In the early 1970s, American manufacturing experienced an outflow due to lower labor costs in emerging economies. The manufacturing industry's share of GDP is declining, while the information industry stands in stark contrast, with its share of GDP showing a significant upward trend. Technology companies are mostly small and medium-sized enterprises. Although they are more significantly impacted by costs, the general trend of industrial development has offset the pressure of inflation, driving up corporate profits and stock prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f234d78be7dcc5033dbd9d295af5f899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>4. How to assess the impact of US</h3><b>Based on the recent correlation between US Treasury bonds and domestic growth stocks, the market is currently paying close attention to the rise in US Treasury bonds. However, review shows that US Treasury bonds have a limited impact on the performance of domestic growth stocks.</b></p><p>Since 2010, we have used the ChiNext index as an indicator to characterize the domestic growth style, and we can find that there is no clear correspondence between the ChiNext index and US Treasury bonds. For example, in 2013, during the period of continuous rise in US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index led growth stocks to perform outstandingly, significantly outperforming value stocks. In 2021, also during a period of rising US Treasury bonds, the ChiNext index saw significant gains.</p><p><b>Logically, \"without industry, there is no bull market.\" The core factor determining the growth trend is the rise of industries. US Treasury bonds, similar to inflation, have a greater impact on the short-term rhythm, but their impact on the trend is limited.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de8200e61b584b0175d2159d63568e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>5. Three major strategic allocation chains</h3></p><p><b>First, scientific and technological innovation leads new growth.</b></p><p>Given the current industry background, if 2019 to 2021 was the 1.0 era of hard technology investment, then looking ahead to the next 3-5 years, we believe that hard technology investment has entered the 2.0 era. Hard technologies, represented by semiconductors, new energy, defense equipment, digital economy, specialized and innovative technologies, and biomedicine, were characterized by choosing the right major tracks in the 1.0 investment era. In the 2.0 investment era, we believe that the core characteristic will be choosing the right sub-tracks.</p><p><b>Based on the inherent sense of the times of newly listed stocks, those listed in the past three years are the main force in the 2.0 era. Further combined with the hard technology positioning of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board is the main battlefield.</b></p><p><b>In terms of industry clues, the focus is on analog design, IGBTs, and equipment materials in the semiconductor sector; photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage in the new energy sector; industrial software and automotive electronics in the digital economy sector; and aero engines, missiles, and information technology in the defense sector.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee15fb0050494d677da95a9796d3860\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Secondly, Hang Seng Technology has reached a turning point.</b></p><p>On May 13, we published \"Only Gold Can Be Found After Weathering the Sand: Hang Seng Technology Faces a Turning Point,\" which highlighted the opportunity for a turning point in Hang Seng Technology and recommended strategic attention.</p><p>Hang Seng Technology's underlying logic is the resonance of three bottoms: policy bottom, profit bottom, and valuation bottom. Since late May, catalyzed by financial reports, it has entered the right side of the bottom.</p><p><b>In the short term, US stocks may cause some disturbances to Hong Kong stocks, but this is a golden window for buying at the bottom.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6770b7f1ed8879bcd681e13fab693548\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb306d814ed773f39387043a04d88ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, stabilize growth through fluctuations. Based on the industry, focus on high-quality stocks such as branches, the ride-hailing chain, infrastructure, and express delivery.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/494d377a52dc223a9d33681012724de0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae68357c00b64f09909ad4390bfddae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Risk Warning</p><p>1. The pandemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations;</p><p>2. Industry progress is below expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{"399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/533868","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2244848234","content_text":"摘要  投资要点回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？1、乱云飞渡仍从容我们认为无论美股、美债还是通胀，对A股影响有限。换言之，当前市场跟1-4月有本质区别，结构比仓位重要，科创板引领新成长蓄势待发，恒生科技修复刚刚开始，把握底部黄金布局窗口。2、如何看美股影响近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。以史为鉴，观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”，可以发现，2000年以来中国经济增长快于美国的时候，也即中美GDP增速差扩张，万得全A往往明显跑赢标普500。展望后续，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓，中美经济错位将进一步延续，A股有望继续强于美股。3、如何看通胀影响近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，影响股市的关键是经济走势和产业崛起。1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，而美股却并未受到明显影响，与此同时，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长股走势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。4、如何看美债影响基于年初美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股表现的影响同样有限。2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，且大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板收益显著。逻辑上，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。5、三大战略配置链展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。其一，科创板引领新成长是主战场，产业线索上，半导体关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防关注航空发动机、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技转折底，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。风险提示：疫情反复超预期；产业进展低预期。1、乱云飞渡仍从容回顾1-4月“三低稳增长”被充分验证，5月以来我们提出新成长反转，科创板和恒生科技超额收益显著。展望下半年，我们预计，科创板引领新成长的戴维斯双击行情，以及恒生科技的修复行情，有望在7-10月进一步展开。原因在于，一方面，受益于业绩催化；另一方面，经历了近期美股风险释放后，届时外围市场也将趋于稳定。因此，对科创板和恒生科技，建议把握底部的黄金布局窗口。其一，科创板是新成长主战场，产业线索上优选半导体、新能源、国防、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药子领域，如半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技迎转折底，刚刚开始，把握美股扰动提供的底部布局机会。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股份行、出行链、基建和快递等。近期美股、通胀和美债扰动成为市场关注焦点，一则，可以看到A股相较美股韧性十足，如何理解；二则，关于全球通胀和美债对A股的影响又如何看？2、如何看美股影响近期美股调整背景下，我们观察到A股韧性十足，中美经济错位或是背后的主要原因。也即，国内经济随着复产复工逐步触底复苏，美国经济逐步高位放缓。回顾中美经济错位和中美股市走势的相关性，绝大部分时候呈现正相关。观察“中美GDP增速差”和“万得全A/标普500”关联度，可以发现，2000年以来当中国经济增长快于美国的时候，中美GDP增速差扩张，此时万得全A明显跑赢标普500。唯一不同的阶段出现在2014-2015年，彼时美国经济走强而中国经济走弱，国内货币财政政策大幅宽松，场外资金入市推动A股走出了流动性牛市。典型的中美经济错位、中国股市跑赢于美股的阶段出现在2004年底-2007年三季度、2008年三季度-2009年三季度。2004年底-2007年三季度，国内经济增长显著优于美国，A股表现整体也好于美股。首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP增速震荡上行，而美国GDP增速震荡下行，中美GDP增速差不断扩张。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2004年6月至2006年7月加息了17次，而国内仅仅加息了2次，当时美国为了抑制国内通胀压力货币政策收紧的力度远强于中国。最后，从股市表现来看，受经济回落政策收紧的影响，美股整体呈现震荡走势，小幅上涨；而A股则在经济快速增长的推动下，走出了一轮盈利牛。2008年三季度-2009年三季度，国内经济领先美国复苏，A股表现整体也好于美股。首先，从中美经济来看，中国GDP于2009年Q1触底企稳，而美国GDP于2009年Q2触底企稳，金融危机后中国经济率先开始复苏。其次，从货币政策来看，美联储在2008年Q3-2009年Q3降息了三次，并进行了第一轮量化宽松。而中国在此期间降息了四次，并推出了“四万亿”财政刺激。整体来看，国内的货币财政的刺激力度并不亚于美国。最后，从股市表现来看，国内经济企稳、政策大力刺激的背景之下，A股率先走出企稳上涨的行情。展望未来，中美经济错位将进一步延续，国内股市独立于美股走出上涨行情的可能性较大。国内方面，经济仍处于快速修复的阶段。从最新的经济数据来看，国内5月PMI为49.6，出现明显企稳向上的趋势。从微观活动中也可以窥探出经济逐步向好的迹象：其一，稳增长政策细化到产业，且逐步落地；其二，全国疫情逐渐好转，复工复产加速推进。美国方面，经济衰退迹象进一步显现。密歇根大学公布的数据显示，美国6月消费者信心指数跌至50.2，较5月相比下跌了8.2，低于市场预期。美国全国住宅建筑商协会公布的数据显示，6月份房地产建筑商信心降至10个月的低点。此外，金融市场也在交易美国经济衰退的压力：（1）商品市场，铜金比从5.4左右下降至5以下；（2）债券市场，美债期限利差倒挂频繁出现；（3）股票市场，美股从4月中旬开始快速走低交易衰退预期。3、如何看通胀影响近期超预期的欧美通胀数据，使得市场对其关注升温。事实上，借助70年代美国大滞涨时期的复盘，可以发现通胀对股市影响有限，关键主导因素则是经济走势和产业崛起。近期欧美通胀引起市场关注。5月美国CPI环比上涨1%，同比上涨8.6%，同比涨幅再创1981年12月以来最大值。5月欧元区CPI为8.1%，续创历史新高。事实上，参考美国70年代大滞涨的经验，通胀和利率上行对权益走势影响有限。以史为鉴，1975年后美国的通胀再次攀升创新高，美国联邦基金有效利率随着通胀压力的加剧也不断上升，但是观察美股的表现并未受到大幅冲击，以纳斯达克为主的小盘科技股甚至走出了一轮波澜壮阔的上涨行情。原因在于，“无产业，不牛市”，决定权益市场趋势的关键是产业崛起。彼时美国处于第三次科技革命的浪潮当中，半导体、电子计算机行业蓬勃发展。从风格角度，高通胀环境不一定导致小市值风格走弱。1975年之后，美国通胀再攀高峰，然而从美股表现来看，75年之后小市值风格明显优于中市值和大市值风格。高通胀尽管提高成本压力，对中小企业冲击更明显，但不能忽视产业发展趋势。70年代初，由于新兴经济体更低廉的劳动力成本，美国制造业出现外流趋势。制造业占GDP的比重不断下降，而信息业与之形成明显对比，其占GDP的比重呈现明显上升趋势。科技型企业以中小企业居多，尽管受成本端的冲击更为显著，但产业发展大趋势对冲了通胀的压力，带动企业盈利和股价的上升。4、如何看美债影响基于近期美债和国内成长股走势的关联度，当前市场对美债上行也较为关注。然而，通过复盘可以发现，美债对国内成长股走势影响有限。2010年以来，我们以创业板指作为国内成长风格的刻画指标，可以发现，创业板和美债之间并无清晰的对应关系。比如，2013年在美债持续上升期间，创业板引领成长股表现亮眼，大幅跑赢价值股；2021年同样在美债上升期间，创业板涨幅显著。逻辑上，“无产业，不牛市”，决定成长趋势的核心是产业崛起，美债和通胀类似，更多影响短期运行节奏，但对趋势影响有限。5、三大战略配置链其一，科创引领新成长。结合当前产业背景，如果说2019年至2021年是硬科技投资的1.0时代，那么展望未来3-5年我们认为硬科技投资进入了2.0时代。以半导体、新能源、国防装备、数字经济、专精特新、生物医药为代表的硬科技，在1.0投资时代的特征是选对大赛道，那么在2.0投资时代我们认为核心特征将是选对子赛道。基于次新股天然的时代感，近三年上市的次新股是2.0时代的主力军，进一步结合科创板的硬科技定位，科创板则是主战场。在产业线索上，半导体中关注模拟设计、IGBT、设备材料，新能源中关注光伏、风电和储能，数字经济中关注工业软件和汽车电子，国防中关注航发、导弹和信息化等。其二，恒生科技转折底。5月13日我们发布《大浪淘沙始见金：恒生科技迎转折底》提示恒生科技的转折底机会，建议战略关注。恒生科技的底层逻辑是三底共振，也即政策底、盈利底、估值底，5月下旬以来在财报催化下，进入底部右侧。短期节奏上，美股或对港股有所扰动，但正是底部布局的黄金窗口。其三，稳增长震荡企稳。结合行业，关注优质股分行、出行链、基建和快递等。6、 风险提示1、疫情反复超预期；2、产业进展低预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399006":1,"000001.SH":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949820606,"gmtCreate":1678500814905,"gmtModify":1678500818933,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1678493817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151337023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-11 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"First Republic, Western Alliance Seek to Calm Contagion Worries From SVB Meltdown","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151337023","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - U.S. lenders First Republic Bank and Western Alliance  said on Friday their liquidity an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - U.S. lenders <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Western Alliance </a> said on Friday their liquidity and deposits remained strong, aiming to calm investors worried of a spill-over of risks from troubled startup focused-bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">SVB Financial Group </a>.</p><p>Shares of the three banks slumped between 20% and 60% in choppy trading that led to halts and resumptions.</p><p>The disclosures come after banking regulators shut California-based SVB after a failed share sale that triggered worries of a liquidity crisis, hammered bank stocks and rippled through global markets.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank in Kansas on October 23, 2020.</p><p>Western Alliance reported total deposits of $61.5 billion and warned of a moderate decline from these levels by the end of the quarter due to seasonal and monthly activity, but affirmed its full-year deposit growth forecast of 13% to 17%.</p><p>It held $2.5 billion cash on its balance sheet while held-to-maturity securities made up less than 2% of assets with unrecognized loss of $192 million as of Feb. 28.</p><p>Meanwhile, FRC said average account size of consumer deposits are less than $200,000 and business deposits less than $500,000. Technology-related deposits accounted for 4% of total deposits.</p><p>Its investment portfolio is less than 15% of total bank assets and only less than 2% of total bank assets is categorized as available for sale.</p><p>Banks park bonds under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities.</p><p>While AFS securities are carried at fair value and unrealized gains and losses are reported against capital, HTM securities are carried at amortized cost and are not required to count changes in value if held until repayment.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>First Republic, Western Alliance Seek to Calm Contagion Worries From SVB Meltdown</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirst Republic, Western Alliance Seek to Calm Contagion Worries From SVB Meltdown\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-11 08:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - U.S. lenders <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Western Alliance </a> said on Friday their liquidity and deposits remained strong, aiming to calm investors worried of a spill-over of risks from troubled startup focused-bank <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">SVB Financial Group </a>.</p><p>Shares of the three banks slumped between 20% and 60% in choppy trading that led to halts and resumptions.</p><p>The disclosures come after banking regulators shut California-based SVB after a failed share sale that triggered worries of a liquidity crisis, hammered bank stocks and rippled through global markets.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank in Kansas on October 23, 2020.</p><p>Western Alliance reported total deposits of $61.5 billion and warned of a moderate decline from these levels by the end of the quarter due to seasonal and monthly activity, but affirmed its full-year deposit growth forecast of 13% to 17%.</p><p>It held $2.5 billion cash on its balance sheet while held-to-maturity securities made up less than 2% of assets with unrecognized loss of $192 million as of Feb. 28.</p><p>Meanwhile, FRC said average account size of consumer deposits are less than $200,000 and business deposits less than $500,000. Technology-related deposits accounted for 4% of total deposits.</p><p>Its investment portfolio is less than 15% of total bank assets and only less than 2% of total bank assets is categorized as available for sale.</p><p>Banks park bonds under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities.</p><p>While AFS securities are carried at fair value and unrealized gains and losses are reported against capital, HTM securities are carried at amortized cost and are not required to count changes in value if held until repayment.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151337023","content_text":"(Reuters) - U.S. lenders First Republic Bank and Western Alliance  said on Friday their liquidity and deposits remained strong, aiming to calm investors worried of a spill-over of risks from troubled startup focused-bank SVB Financial Group .Shares of the three banks slumped between 20% and 60% in choppy trading that led to halts and resumptions.The disclosures come after banking regulators shut California-based SVB after a failed share sale that triggered worries of a liquidity crisis, hammered bank stocks and rippled through global markets.Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank in Kansas on October 23, 2020.Western Alliance reported total deposits of $61.5 billion and warned of a moderate decline from these levels by the end of the quarter due to seasonal and monthly activity, but affirmed its full-year deposit growth forecast of 13% to 17%.It held $2.5 billion cash on its balance sheet while held-to-maturity securities made up less than 2% of assets with unrecognized loss of $192 million as of Feb. 28.Meanwhile, FRC said average account size of consumer deposits are less than $200,000 and business deposits less than $500,000. Technology-related deposits accounted for 4% of total deposits.Its investment portfolio is less than 15% of total bank assets and only less than 2% of total bank assets is categorized as available for sale.Banks park bonds under either available-for-sale (AFS) or held-to-maturity securities.While AFS securities are carried at fair value and unrealized gains and losses are reported against capital, HTM securities are carried at amortized cost and are not required to count changes in value if held until repayment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRC":0.9,"WAL":0.9,"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":409542788264096,"gmtCreate":1740966497027,"gmtModify":1740966500646,"author":{"id":"3579240004068160","authorId":"3579240004068160","name":"Edmond123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfbe57050310a2a19bdd1c8cb905484","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579240004068160","authorIdStr":"3579240004068160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> [开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> [开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 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