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2022-11-29

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Opening | U.S. stocks were mixed, Bilibili rose more than 13%

2022-11-08

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2022-11-07

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2022-10-09

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The quality control of the "new forces" in the United States is too poor? Rivian Recalls Almost Every Car It Sold

2022-10-06

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2022-09-26

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2022-12-26

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Goldman Sachs' Top 10 Forecasts for the U.S. Economy in 2022, Seven and a Half Right

2022-09-22

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Full Text of Fed Resolution review: The Finish Line of Tightening

2022-09-11

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There is another "gold sweeping fever"! "Golden and difficult summer", the giants have taken action one after another!

2022-09-08

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Can iPhone 14 bring Apple back to a market value of 3 trillion?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Users need to receive vehicle use training in advance after paying the full price of US $309,000 (approximately 2.20116 million yuan), so as to \"enjoy the qualification to drive the vehicle as a futuristic product pavilion\" in the future. At this stage, in fact, users cannot get their actual cars yet, and need to wait for the \"second phase FPO co-creation delivery period\", which is August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4188586ad932136f3b5deec5c38949\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"705\"/><span>▲ Source Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Source Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faraday Future emphasized that the company's enhanced safety testing has nothing to do with what is required by the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although the official said that it will be delivered in August, due to the precedent of several delays in Faraday Future FF91, this delay may lead to short-term instability in financing, so the specific delivery date has yet to be judged.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Faraday Future: FF91 Phase 2 delivery postponed to August this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFaraday Future: FF91 Phase 2 delivery postponed to August this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">IT之家</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-18 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Yang Tsai</p><p>Faraday Future announced yesterday that the delivery time of the second phase of FF912.0 FuturistAlliance \"FOP co-creation delivery\" has been updated from the end of the second quarter of 2023 to August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a5a30839b03a61a16909eccb127733\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span>▲ Source Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Source Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It is reported that Faraday Future stated that the final delivery time of its first model FF91 was delayed due to \"the time constraint of one supplier\" and the completion time of the \"additional system test\" link in the vehicle's \"enhanced safety test\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">According to previous official information, in terms of delivery, FF91 is more \"unique\" than traditional car companies. Users need to receive vehicle use training in advance after paying the full price of US $309,000 (approximately 2.20116 million yuan), so as to \"enjoy the qualification to drive the vehicle as a futuristic product pavilion\" in the future. At this stage, in fact, users cannot get their actual cars yet, and need to wait for the \"second phase FPO co-creation delivery period\", which is August 2023.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4188586ad932136f3b5deec5c38949\" alt=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" title=\"▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网\" tg-width=\"1440\" tg-height=\"705\"/><span>▲ Source Faraday Future official website</span></p><p><strong>▲ Source Faraday Future official website</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Faraday Future emphasized that the company's enhanced safety testing has nothing to do with what is required by the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although the official said that it will be delivered in August, due to the precedent of several delays in Faraday Future FF91, this delay may lead to short-term instability in financing, so the specific delivery date has yet to be judged.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/700/572.htm\">IT之家</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da02b327d14fbb528d302ef2b9995bf1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/700/572.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184277979","content_text":"作者：漾仔法拉第未来昨日宣布，FF912.0FuturistAlliance第二阶段“FOP共创交付”交付时间从2023年第二季度末更新为2023年8月。▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网▲图源法拉第未来官网据悉，法拉第未来表示，旗下首款车型FF91由于“一家供应商的时间限制”，以及受车辆“强化安全测试”中“额外系统测试”环节完成时间影响，导致最终交付时间有所推迟。根据官方此前信息，在交付方面上，FF91相对于传统车企更具“独到之处”，用户需要在支付30.9万美元（约220.16万元人民币）全款车款后，事先接受车辆使用培训，才能在未来“享受到作为未来主义产品馆驾驶该车辆的资格”，而在这一阶段，实际上用户还无法拿到自己的实车，需要等待“第二阶段FPO共创交付时期”，也就是2023年8月。▲ 图源 法拉第未来官网▲图源法拉第未来官网法拉第未来强调，公司的强化安全测试与美国联邦机动车安全标准（FMVSS）要求的内容无关。虽然目前官方称将会在8月交付，但因法拉第未来FF91几度跳票先例，这一次的延期可能会导致融资出现短暂的不稳定情况，因此具体交付日期还有待判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FFIE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188687670493304,"gmtCreate":1687091846754,"gmtModify":1687091850949,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188687670493304","repostId":"1156309203","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156309203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687090816,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156309203?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-18 20:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rate hike \"invalid\"? U.S. stocks have risen back, and the dollar has also fallen back","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156309203","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“四十年来最激进加息周期”如同没有发生！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Looking back at the node when the Federal Reserve suspended rate hike in June, we can find such a magical scene: the performance of the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar has hardly changed compared to the beginning of the rate hike cycle in early 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083e237d5166eb06a4af3db441f84982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The market index travels back in time and space 15 months ago</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As of the close of U.S. stocks on Friday, the S&P 500 index had gained five consecutive weeks of positive results, reporting 4,409 points. When the Federal Reserve started this rate hike cycle 15 months ago, the S&P closed at 4,358 points. The current S&P 500 index is higher than it was during the first rate hike on March 16, 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7359049e4467a9f0aff05065fa3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1415\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Generally speaking, the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve's rate hike, although not a direct factor leading to a bear market, will also lead to an adjustment in the broader market.</strong>In 2022, the sharp correction of U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, can confirm this point. After the rate hike in the spring, U.S. stocks sold off and fell into a bear market due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, and recession predictions spread across the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, in the first half of this year, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, driven by strong corporate earnings. Before entering the earnings season at the beginning of the year, Wall Street analysts had already slashed their expectations. As a result, strong results offset the pessimism after companies announced their earnings reports one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to FactSet data, as of the end of May, nearly 80% of U.S.-listed companies' first-quarter financial reports exceeded expectations, and the proportion hit a two-year high.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, driven by the craze set off by ChatGPT, large technology stocks such as the seven sisters of the US stock market (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Google) continued to rise, driving the index up. In the first half of this year, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded and entered a technical bull market one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present,<strong>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still insisted on being hawkish after the June interest rate meeting, the future path of monetary policy is highly certain. The market generally expects that the rate hike is nearing the end, and the Fed's tightening stance can no longer restrain the upward momentum of the market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg quoted experts as saying,<strong>In the next 6-12 months, the importance of the Federal Reserve will be less and other global drivers and fundamentals will play a greater role.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, the impact of macro factors on stocks has fallen from 83% to 71% since March, the largest three-month decline since 2009, according to Citigroup's model.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The US Dollar Index fell back simultaneously</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar has also waned, with the US Dollar Index currently trading near April 2022 levels, down nearly 10% from its all-time high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933da88b6af1b7ce7a54fb42e84aa2ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The US Dollar Index, which measures the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the US dollar against six major currencies, is sensitive to interest rate policy, which is usually positively correlated with the interest rate level, that is, rate hike pushes the US Dollar Index up, and vice versa.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can be observed in this rate hike cycle, which has lasted for 15 months and has accumulated 500 basis points. The Federal Reserve began its rate hike in March 22, followed by four consecutive aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points between June and September. The US Dollar Index rose from about 102 in early June to about 114 at the end of September, a cumulative increase of more than 11%. During this period, other currencies were under tremendous depreciation pressure. It was not until the recent debt ceiling crisis was resolved and the Fed's signal of suspending rate hike was clear that the US Dollar Index finally fell back.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, the market expects two more 25 basis point or one 50 basis point rate hike by the end of this year. But the widely expected recession has not yet occurred, the U.S. economy appears to have withstood the brunt of rate hike, the labor market is resilient, and corporate balance sheets are mostly healthy.<strong>In their latest report, strategists at Bank of America raised their outlook for the U.S. stock market and became increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook. They predicted that if there was a recession, it would be relatively mild.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike \"invalid\"? U.S. stocks have risen back, and the dollar has also fallen back</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRate hike \"invalid\"? U.S. stocks have risen back, and the dollar has also fallen back\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-18 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Looking back at the node when the Federal Reserve suspended rate hike in June, we can find such a magical scene: the performance of the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar has hardly changed compared to the beginning of the rate hike cycle in early 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083e237d5166eb06a4af3db441f84982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The market index travels back in time and space 15 months ago</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As of the close of U.S. stocks on Friday, the S&P 500 index had gained five consecutive weeks of positive results, reporting 4,409 points. When the Federal Reserve started this rate hike cycle 15 months ago, the S&P closed at 4,358 points. The current S&P 500 index is higher than it was during the first rate hike on March 16, 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7359049e4467a9f0aff05065fa3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1415\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Generally speaking, the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve's rate hike, although not a direct factor leading to a bear market, will also lead to an adjustment in the broader market.</strong>In 2022, the sharp correction of U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, can confirm this point. After the rate hike in the spring, U.S. stocks sold off and fell into a bear market due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, and recession predictions spread across the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, in the first half of this year, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, driven by strong corporate earnings. Before entering the earnings season at the beginning of the year, Wall Street analysts had already slashed their expectations. As a result, strong results offset the pessimism after companies announced their earnings reports one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to FactSet data, as of the end of May, nearly 80% of U.S.-listed companies' first-quarter financial reports exceeded expectations, and the proportion hit a two-year high.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, driven by the craze set off by ChatGPT, large technology stocks such as the seven sisters of the US stock market (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Google) continued to rise, driving the index up. In the first half of this year, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded and entered a technical bull market one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present,<strong>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still insisted on being hawkish after the June interest rate meeting, the future path of monetary policy is highly certain. The market generally expects that the rate hike is nearing the end, and the Fed's tightening stance can no longer restrain the upward momentum of the market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg quoted experts as saying,<strong>In the next 6-12 months, the importance of the Federal Reserve will be less and other global drivers and fundamentals will play a greater role.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, the impact of macro factors on stocks has fallen from 83% to 71% since March, the largest three-month decline since 2009, according to Citigroup's model.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The US Dollar Index fell back simultaneously</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar has also waned, with the US Dollar Index currently trading near April 2022 levels, down nearly 10% from its all-time high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933da88b6af1b7ce7a54fb42e84aa2ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The US Dollar Index, which measures the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the US dollar against six major currencies, is sensitive to interest rate policy, which is usually positively correlated with the interest rate level, that is, rate hike pushes the US Dollar Index up, and vice versa.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can be observed in this rate hike cycle, which has lasted for 15 months and has accumulated 500 basis points. The Federal Reserve began its rate hike in March 22, followed by four consecutive aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points between June and September. The US Dollar Index rose from about 102 in early June to about 114 at the end of September, a cumulative increase of more than 11%. During this period, other currencies were under tremendous depreciation pressure. It was not until the recent debt ceiling crisis was resolved and the Fed's signal of suspending rate hike was clear that the US Dollar Index finally fell back.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, the market expects two more 25 basis point or one 50 basis point rate hike by the end of this year. But the widely expected recession has not yet occurred, the U.S. economy appears to have withstood the brunt of rate hike, the labor market is resilient, and corporate balance sheets are mostly healthy.<strong>In their latest report, strategists at Bank of America raised their outlook for the U.S. stock market and became increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook. They predicted that if there was a recession, it would be relatively mild.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691390\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691390","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1156309203","content_text":"站在六月美联储暂停加息的节点回看，可以发现这样一幕神奇的景象：美股大盘和美元的表现，相比22年初加息周期开始时几乎没有变化。大盘指数时空穿越 回到15个月前截至周五美股收盘，标普500指数收获五周连阳，报4409点。当15个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点。现在的标普500指数，比2022年3月16日第一次加息时还要高。通常来说，美联储加息收紧流动性，尽管不是导致熊市的直接因素，但也会导致大盘的调整。2022年，美国股市尤其是科技股的大幅调整可以印证这一点。在春天的加息之后，由于高通膨和借贷成本攀升，美国股票遭到抛售而落入熊市，经济衰退预测更是在市场中扩散。但是，今年上半年，在强劲的企业盈利推动下，美股大幅反弹。在年初进入财报季之前，华尔街分析师原本已经大幅下调预期，结果，在企业陆续公布财报后，强劲业绩抵消了悲观情绪。FactSet的数据显示，截至5月底，近80%美股上市公司第一季度财报超出预期，比例创下2年来新高。此外，在ChatGPT掀起的热潮推动下，美股七姐妹（苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉和谷歌）等大型科技股持续走高，拉动指数上升。今年上半年，纳指和标普500指数出现反弹，相继进入技术性牛市。目前来看，尽管在六月议息会议后美联储主席鲍威尔依然坚持放鹰，但货币政策的未来路径已有很高确定性，市场普遍预计加息已经临近终点，联储的紧缩立场已经无法再抑制市场的上行动力。彭博社援引专家说法称，未来6-12个月，美联储的重要性会降低，其他全球驱动因素和基本面因素将发挥更大的作用。此外，根据花旗集团的模型，自3月以来，宏观因素对股市的影响已从83%降至71%，这是2009年以来最大的三个月降幅。美元指数同步回落与此同时，美元的强势也有所减弱，美元指数目前在2022年4月的水平附近交易，较其历史高点下降了近10%。衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率波动的美元指数对利率政策较为敏感，通常与利率水平呈正相关关系，即加息推动美元指数上涨，反之则下跌。在本轮已持续15个月、累计500基点的加息周期中，可以观察到这一点。美联储自22年3月开始加息，随后在6月至9月期间，连续四次激进加息75个基点。美元指数从6月初的约102涨至9月末的约114，累计涨幅超过11%。期间其他货币承受了巨大的贬值压力。直到近期债务上限危机解决、美联储暂停加息信号明确，美元指数才终于回落。目前，市场预计，到今年年底前还会有两次25个基点或一次50个基点的加息。但此前普遍预计的衰退尚还没有发生，美国经济似乎已经承受了加息的冲击，劳动力市场富有弹性，企业资产负债表大多健康。美银的策略师在最新报告中提升了他们对美股市场的展望，并对经济前景越来越乐观，他们预测，如果出现经济衰退，也会相对温和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979025074,"gmtCreate":1685289510398,"gmtModify":1685289514106,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979025074","repostId":"1169636070","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169636070","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685276505,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169636070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-28 20:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm is far from lifted","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169636070","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"闯关国会，又是一场“恶仗”。经过数周的激烈谈判，美国两党终于在周六晚间就解决美国债务上限问题达成“原则性协议”。不过，这份协议还需得到美国国会的快速通过，才能真正解除本次美债违约的“警报”。而这，又将","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Breaking through Congress is another \"evil battle\".</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After weeks of intense negotiations, the two parties in the United States finally reached an \"agreement in principle\" on resolving the U.S. debt ceiling issue on Saturday night. However, this agreement still needs to be quickly passed by the U.S. Congress before it can truly lift the \"alarm\" of this U.S. debt default. And this will be another \"evil battle\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the initial agreement was reached, Biden said it represented a \"compromise\" for him, while Republican House Speaker McCarthy said the agreement \"made historic cuts in spending.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking back at this round of the U.S. debt ceiling game, it is not difficult to find that the contradiction between the two sides is that Republicans hope to reach an agreement to significantly reduce government spending while adjusting the debt ceiling; Democrats, on the other hand, insist on adjusting the debt ceiling relatively independently and are unwilling to make too many concessions in spending cuts.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many analysts believe that the product of this compromise may not satisfy the more radical members of the Republican Party, nor satisfy the left wing of the Democratic Party:</p><p>\"The cuts in the package are almost certainly both too modest to win a vote from hard-line conservatives and too harsh to win a vote from radicals in the House.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, many media commented that the prospect of the agreement in both the Senate and the House of Representatives may be \"bumpy\". CCTV News quoted the Washington Post as saying that it is a \"difficult task\" to pass the agreement in the current \"troubled and divided\" Congress in a short time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the timetable given by McCarthy, the House of Representatives will vote next Wednesday (May 31), and then send it to the Senate for session. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Friday that if the U.S. Congress fails to pass the agreement in time, the government will default on its debt on June 5th.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, the U.S. Congress must successfully vote to pass relevant bills before the \"X Date\" in order to avoid debt default in the United States. If there is a \"slight difference\" in the votes of the two houses next week, the potential risk of \"technical default\" of U.S. debt will be far from disappearing.</p><p><h2>\"Bipartisan cooperation\" is a must, and \"getting rid of the thorns\" is the key</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the mid-term elections in 2022, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives respectively. Therefore, the two parties must reach \"cooperation\" before the relevant bills can be passed in both houses.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, as mentioned earlier, the contradiction between the two sides is that it may be difficult for radical members of both parties to reach concessions on the bill, and senators from each party may find different reasons to oppose the bill-some far-right Republicans may think that the spending cuts are insufficient, while some left-wing politicians of the Democratic Party may feel that they have made too many concessions to Republicans.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, on the basis of the \"bipartisan cooperation\" reached by Biden and McCarthy, whether these \"thorny\" lawmakers can be dealt with is the key to solving the problem.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Politico's previous report, White House officials have informally counted that in the event of losing a portion of the Republican vote,<strong>McCarthy may need as many as 100 Democratic votes to secure a 218 majority for the final debt ceiling agreement-ensuring that the agreement can pass the House of Representatives.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if the bill is seriously blocked in the House of Representatives, Democrats can also adopt an emergency strategy that is rarely used-\"lifting the petition\" to make a \"clean\" adjustment, and there should be no strings attached to the debt ceiling. vote. However, this parliamentary strategy is even more hopeless-although Democrats support this approach, they need to persuade enough Republican majorities to join, otherwise they will not succeed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, Biden could try to invoke the untested legal theory of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which states that \"the validity of the U.S. public debt … must not be challenged,\" thereby clearing the way for him to authorize more borrowing. This could be immediately challenged in court, though.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If passed in the House, the bill would go to the Senate.<strong>In the Senate, this bill needs the support of at least nine Republicans to get 60 out of 100 votes to continue to push the legislation.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Democratic-controlled Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has full control over when the bill will be voted on, media analysis said. However, individual senators can delay the process by insisting on procedural operations, including a 30-hour debate on whether to start debate first, and another 30-hour debate on the bill itself.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Senate needs to pass the bill without changing the House bill. Otherwise, it will have to be knocked back to the House to restart a new round of voting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris can vote to pass 51-50.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Only after both House and Senate pass the agreement can it be submitted to the White House and signed into law by Biden. Only by quickly completing this legislation can the \"alarm\" of U.S. debt default be successfully lifted.</p><p><h2>Timeline of this round of \"U.S. debt ceiling game\"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to Congress stating that the United States will hit the statutory debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on January 19, and the Treasury Department will begin to take some \"extraordinary measures\", cash and \"extraordinary measures\" \"may support until early June.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that it is not uncommon for U.S. debt to hit the upper limit, but this time the market panic is relatively rare. The reason may be related to the current extremely tight monetary policy in the United States, regional banking crisis and recession expectations. The frequent reminders of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen further ignited this panic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, Yellen sent a letter to Congress that \"extraordinary measures\" would be taken on January 19; On April 25, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a speech warning that if the U.S. debt ceiling is not resolved, there will be serious consequences; On May 1 and May 15, Yellen sent letters to Congress formally warning that the default date was earlier than expected; On May 27, Yellen warned that if the U.S. Congress failed to pass the agreement in time, the government would default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the evening of May 27, U.S. President Biden and Congressional Republican Leader McCarthy reached a principled agreement on raising the federal government's debt ceiling of US $31.4 trillion. The media reported, citing people familiar with the matter,<strong>Negotiators from both sides agreed to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling for two years, while cutting and limiting some government spending for two years, and keeping non-defense spending nearly flat for two years</strong>, the agreement did not mention the budget ceiling after 2025, and announced that the specific bill would be submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on May 31.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to estimates of the Council of Economic Advisers, an agency of the White House, if the U.S. debt defaults, the U.S. stock market will plummet by 45%. According to Moody's estimates, if the U.S. debt defaults, the U.S. unemployment rate will soar by 5 percentage points, which means that about 8 million Americans are unemployed. At the same time, governments restricted by the debt ceiling will not be able to cope with the economic downturn through fiscal stimulus, leading to a deeper recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm is far from lifted</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm is far from lifted\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-28 20:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Breaking through Congress is another \"evil battle\".</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After weeks of intense negotiations, the two parties in the United States finally reached an \"agreement in principle\" on resolving the U.S. debt ceiling issue on Saturday night. However, this agreement still needs to be quickly passed by the U.S. Congress before it can truly lift the \"alarm\" of this U.S. debt default. And this will be another \"evil battle\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the initial agreement was reached, Biden said it represented a \"compromise\" for him, while Republican House Speaker McCarthy said the agreement \"made historic cuts in spending.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking back at this round of the U.S. debt ceiling game, it is not difficult to find that the contradiction between the two sides is that Republicans hope to reach an agreement to significantly reduce government spending while adjusting the debt ceiling; Democrats, on the other hand, insist on adjusting the debt ceiling relatively independently and are unwilling to make too many concessions in spending cuts.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many analysts believe that the product of this compromise may not satisfy the more radical members of the Republican Party, nor satisfy the left wing of the Democratic Party:</p><p>\"The cuts in the package are almost certainly both too modest to win a vote from hard-line conservatives and too harsh to win a vote from radicals in the House.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, many media commented that the prospect of the agreement in both the Senate and the House of Representatives may be \"bumpy\". CCTV News quoted the Washington Post as saying that it is a \"difficult task\" to pass the agreement in the current \"troubled and divided\" Congress in a short time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the timetable given by McCarthy, the House of Representatives will vote next Wednesday (May 31), and then send it to the Senate for session. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Friday that if the U.S. Congress fails to pass the agreement in time, the government will default on its debt on June 5th.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, the U.S. Congress must successfully vote to pass relevant bills before the \"X Date\" in order to avoid debt default in the United States. If there is a \"slight difference\" in the votes of the two houses next week, the potential risk of \"technical default\" of U.S. debt will be far from disappearing.</p><p><h2>\"Bipartisan cooperation\" is a must, and \"getting rid of the thorns\" is the key</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the mid-term elections in 2022, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives respectively. Therefore, the two parties must reach \"cooperation\" before the relevant bills can be passed in both houses.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, as mentioned earlier, the contradiction between the two sides is that it may be difficult for radical members of both parties to reach concessions on the bill, and senators from each party may find different reasons to oppose the bill-some far-right Republicans may think that the spending cuts are insufficient, while some left-wing politicians of the Democratic Party may feel that they have made too many concessions to Republicans.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, on the basis of the \"bipartisan cooperation\" reached by Biden and McCarthy, whether these \"thorny\" lawmakers can be dealt with is the key to solving the problem.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Politico's previous report, White House officials have informally counted that in the event of losing a portion of the Republican vote,<strong>McCarthy may need as many as 100 Democratic votes to secure a 218 majority for the final debt ceiling agreement-ensuring that the agreement can pass the House of Representatives.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if the bill is seriously blocked in the House of Representatives, Democrats can also adopt an emergency strategy that is rarely used-\"lifting the petition\" to make a \"clean\" adjustment, and there should be no strings attached to the debt ceiling. vote. However, this parliamentary strategy is even more hopeless-although Democrats support this approach, they need to persuade enough Republican majorities to join, otherwise they will not succeed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, Biden could try to invoke the untested legal theory of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which states that \"the validity of the U.S. public debt … must not be challenged,\" thereby clearing the way for him to authorize more borrowing. This could be immediately challenged in court, though.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If passed in the House, the bill would go to the Senate.<strong>In the Senate, this bill needs the support of at least nine Republicans to get 60 out of 100 votes to continue to push the legislation.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Democratic-controlled Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has full control over when the bill will be voted on, media analysis said. However, individual senators can delay the process by insisting on procedural operations, including a 30-hour debate on whether to start debate first, and another 30-hour debate on the bill itself.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Senate needs to pass the bill without changing the House bill. Otherwise, it will have to be knocked back to the House to restart a new round of voting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris can vote to pass 51-50.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Only after both House and Senate pass the agreement can it be submitted to the White House and signed into law by Biden. Only by quickly completing this legislation can the \"alarm\" of U.S. debt default be successfully lifted.</p><p><h2>Timeline of this round of \"U.S. debt ceiling game\"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to Congress stating that the United States will hit the statutory debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on January 19, and the Treasury Department will begin to take some \"extraordinary measures\", cash and \"extraordinary measures\" \"may support until early June.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that it is not uncommon for U.S. debt to hit the upper limit, but this time the market panic is relatively rare. The reason may be related to the current extremely tight monetary policy in the United States, regional banking crisis and recession expectations. The frequent reminders of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen further ignited this panic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, Yellen sent a letter to Congress that \"extraordinary measures\" would be taken on January 19; On April 25, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a speech warning that if the U.S. debt ceiling is not resolved, there will be serious consequences; On May 1 and May 15, Yellen sent letters to Congress formally warning that the default date was earlier than expected; On May 27, Yellen warned that if the U.S. Congress failed to pass the agreement in time, the government would default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the evening of May 27, U.S. President Biden and Congressional Republican Leader McCarthy reached a principled agreement on raising the federal government's debt ceiling of US $31.4 trillion. The media reported, citing people familiar with the matter,<strong>Negotiators from both sides agreed to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling for two years, while cutting and limiting some government spending for two years, and keeping non-defense spending nearly flat for two years</strong>, the agreement did not mention the budget ceiling after 2025, and announced that the specific bill would be submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on May 31.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to estimates of the Council of Economic Advisers, an agency of the White House, if the U.S. debt defaults, the U.S. stock market will plummet by 45%. According to Moody's estimates, if the U.S. debt defaults, the U.S. unemployment rate will soar by 5 percentage points, which means that about 8 million Americans are unemployed. At the same time, governments restricted by the debt ceiling will not be able to cope with the economic downturn through fiscal stimulus, leading to a deeper recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689787\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689787","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169636070","content_text":"闯关国会，又是一场“恶仗”。经过数周的激烈谈判，美国两党终于在周六晚间就解决美国债务上限问题达成“原则性协议”。不过，这份协议还需得到美国国会的快速通过，才能真正解除本次美债违约的“警报”。而这，又将是一场“恶仗”。在协议初步达成后，拜登表示，对他而言这代表了“妥协”，而共和党籍的众议院议长麦卡锡则表示，协议“在开支方面做了历史性的削减”。回顾本轮美债上限博弈，不难发现双方的矛盾点在于，共和党人希望在调整债务上限的同时，达成大幅削减政府开支的协议；而民主党人则坚持相对独立地调整债务上限，不愿在削减开支方面做出太大让步。不少分析认为，这份妥协的产物恐怕既无法满足共和党内立场更为激进的议员，又无法令民主党左翼感到满意：“几乎可以肯定的是，一揽子计划中的削减措施既过于温和，无法赢得强硬保守派的投票，又过于严厉，无法赢得众议院激进派的投票。”因此，不少媒体评论称，该协议在参众两院的前景可能都将“崎岖不平”。央视新闻援引《华盛顿邮报》评论称，短时间内在当前这个“容易陷入困境且分裂的”国会通过协议是一项“艰难的任务”。按麦卡锡给出的时间表，众议院将在下周三（5月31日）进行投票，随后送往参议院过会。而美国财政部本周五曾表示，如果美国国会不能及时通过协议，政府将会在6月5日出现债务违约。因此，美国国会必须成功在“X Date”前投票通过相关法案，才能避免美国出现债务违约。如果下周两院投票“稍有差池”，美债“技术性违约”的潜在风险就远远谈不上消失。“两党合作”是必须，“搞定刺头”是关键2022年中期选举后，民主党和共和党分别控制着美国会参议院和众议院，因此两党必须达成“合作”，才有可能使相关法案在两院都获得通过。不过，如前所述，双方的矛盾点在于，双方党内激进派议员可能很难就法案达成让步，来自每个党派的参议员可能会找到不同的理由反对该法案——部分极右翼共和党人可能会认为支出削减不够充分，而部分民主党左翼政客可能会觉得他们向共和党人让步太多。因此，在拜登和麦卡锡达成“两党合作”的基础上，能否搞定这些“刺头”议员，是解决问题的关键。据Politico此前报道，白宫官员曾非正式地计算过，在失去共和党一部分选票的情况下，麦卡锡可能需要获得多达100张民主党选票，才能以确保最终的债务上限协议取得218多数票——确保协议能够在众议院获得通过。值得一提的是，如果法案在众议院严重遇阻，民主党人还可以采取一种很少使用的紧急策略——“解除请愿书”，以“清洁”调整，不应该有附加条件的方式对债务上限进行投票。不过，这项议会策略更是希望渺茫——尽管民主党人支持这一做法，但需要说服足够多的共和党多数派加入，否则无法成功。此外，拜登可以尝试援引美国宪法第14修正案的未经检验的法律理论，该修正案规定“美国公共债务的有效性……不得被质疑”，从而为他授权更多借款扫清了道路。不过，这可能会立即在法庭上受到质疑。如果在众议院获得通过，该法案将提交参议院。在参议院，这项法案需要至少9名共和党人的支持，才能取得100票中的60票支持，从而继续推动立法。媒体分析称，在民主党控制的参议院，多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)对该法案何时进行投票拥有完全控制权。但是，个别参议员可以通过坚持程序性操作来延缓这一进程，包括就是否开始辩论先进行30个小时的辩论，以及就法案本身再进行30个小时的辩论。而参议院需要在不改变众议院议案的情况下通过该法案。否则，它将不得不被打回众议院重新开始新一轮投票。值得一提的是，如果参议院出现50-50的平局，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯可以投票以51-50通过。只有在参众两院都取得通过后，该协议方能提交白宫，由拜登签署成为法律。而只有快速完成这一立法，本次美债违约的“警报”才能顺利解除。本轮“美债上限博弈”时间线2023年1月13日，美国财政部长耶伦致信国会称，美国将在1月19日触及31.4万亿美元的法定债务上限，财政部将开始采取一些“非常措施”，现金和“非常措施”可能会支持到6月初。值得一提的是，美债触及上限并不罕见，但这次市场恐慌情绪之浓较为罕见。究其原因，可能和当前美国极其紧缩的货币政策、地区银行危机与衰退预期有关。而美财长耶伦的频频提醒，又进一步点燃了这一恐慌。1月13日耶伦致信国会将会在1月19日采取“非常措施”；4月25日，美财长耶伦发表演讲，警告美债上限不解决会产生严重后果；5月1日和5月15日，耶伦致信国会，正式警告违约日期比预期更早；5月27日，耶伦又警告称表示，如果美国国会不能及时通过协议，政府将会在6月5日出现债务违约。5月27日晚，美国总统拜登和国会共和党领袖麦卡锡已就提高联邦政府31.4万亿美元的债务上限达成原则性协议，媒体援引知情人士消息报道，双方谈判代表同意将美国联邦债务上限提高两年，同时将削减和限制两年内部分政府支出，非国防支出在2年内保持接近持平，协议中并未提及2025年后的预算上限，宣布具体法案于5月31日交由众议院表决。据白宫的一个机构经济顾问委员会估计，如果美债发生违约，美国股市将暴跌 45%。另据穆迪估计，若美债违约，那么美国失业率将飙升5个百分点，这意味着大约800万美国人失业。同时，受债务上限限制的政府将无法通过财政刺激应对经济低迷，从而导致更严重的衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970507343,"gmtCreate":1684566896483,"gmtModify":1684566900530,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970507343","repostId":"1134825236","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134825236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684547417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134825236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-20 09:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Extreme Game\"! US debt ceiling talks'end fruitlessly 'on Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134825236","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。据报道，债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据路透报道，美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended on Friday, with neither side mentioning any progress and no further meetings scheduled. The debt ceiling standoff is reportedly focused on spending levels in 2024.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Reuters, the second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended on Friday. Neither side mentioned any progress and no further meetings were scheduled.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republican Rep. garrett Graves told reporters after a brief meeting with White House officials at the Capitol:</p><p>\"We had a very, very candid discussion about where we are and how things need to go.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Tonight is not a negotiation,\" Graves said, adding,<strong>The time for the next meeting has not yet been set.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>He agreed with McCarthy, the leader of the US Republican Party and Speaker of the House of Representatives, that progress needs to be made in changing the \"trajectory\" of the US government's rapidly rising deficit spending and debt.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"We have to spend less than we did last year,\" McCarthy said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another Republican negotiator, Rep. Patrick McHenry, said McCarthy will be briefed on the progress of the negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Neither member of Parliament mentioned any progress.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the first meeting Friday morning, McCarthy's debt ceiling negotiators abruptly left shortly after a closed-door meeting with White House representatives began.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The news rocked financial markets as the debt ceiling deadline loomed.</p><p><h2>Focus Controversy: Spending Levels in 2024</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the cap.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The debt ceiling impasse focuses on spending levels in 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to previous reports by media Axios, Democratic Rep. Dusty Johnson said:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The White House wants to keep spending more money, and as long as that's their position, there's no way to reach a deal.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Johnson said McCarthy \"stuck\" with Republican demands to limit discretionary spending to 2022 levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Extreme Game\"! US debt ceiling talks'end fruitlessly 'on Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Extreme Game\"! US debt ceiling talks'end fruitlessly 'on Friday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-20 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended on Friday, with neither side mentioning any progress and no further meetings scheduled. The debt ceiling standoff is reportedly focused on spending levels in 2024.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Reuters, the second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended on Friday. Neither side mentioned any progress and no further meetings were scheduled.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republican Rep. garrett Graves told reporters after a brief meeting with White House officials at the Capitol:</p><p>\"We had a very, very candid discussion about where we are and how things need to go.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Tonight is not a negotiation,\" Graves said, adding,<strong>The time for the next meeting has not yet been set.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>He agreed with McCarthy, the leader of the US Republican Party and Speaker of the House of Representatives, that progress needs to be made in changing the \"trajectory\" of the US government's rapidly rising deficit spending and debt.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"We have to spend less than we did last year,\" McCarthy said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another Republican negotiator, Rep. Patrick McHenry, said McCarthy will be briefed on the progress of the negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Neither member of Parliament mentioned any progress.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the first meeting Friday morning, McCarthy's debt ceiling negotiators abruptly left shortly after a closed-door meeting with White House representatives began.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The news rocked financial markets as the debt ceiling deadline loomed.</p><p><h2>Focus Controversy: Spending Levels in 2024</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the cap.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The debt ceiling impasse focuses on spending levels in 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to previous reports by media Axios, Democratic Rep. Dusty Johnson said:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The White House wants to keep spending more money, and as long as that's their position, there's no way to reach a deal.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Johnson said McCarthy \"stuck\" with Republican demands to limit discretionary spending to 2022 levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ece06f0d5f47ced3643ec6cfcc433e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134825236","content_text":"美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。据报道，债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据路透报道，美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。共和党众议员格雷夫斯(garrett Graves)在国会大厦与白宫官员举行简短会晤后对记者说：“我们进行了非常、非常坦诚的讨论，讨论了我们的现状，讨论了事情需要如何发展。”“今晚不是一次谈判，”格雷夫斯说，并补充说，下一次会议的时间尚未确定。他赞同美国共和党领袖、众议院议长麦卡锡的说法，即需要在改变美国政府赤字支出和债务迅速上升的“轨迹”方面取得进展。麦卡锡说：“我们的支出必须比去年少。”另一位共和党谈判代表、众议员Patrick McHenry说，麦卡锡将听取有关谈判进展的简报。两位议员都没有提到任何进展。在周五早上的第一次会议上，麦卡锡的债务上限谈判代表与白宫代表的闭门会议开始后不久便突然离开。随着债务上限最后期限的临近，这一消息震动了金融市场。焦点争议：2024年的支出水平共和党人正在推动大幅削减开支，以换取提高上限。债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据媒体Axios此前报道，民主党众议员Dusty Johnson表示：“白宫想继续花更多的钱，只要这是他们的立场，就不可能达成协议。”Johnson说，麦卡锡“坚持”共和党要求将可自由支配的支出限制在2022年的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970221454,"gmtCreate":1684496524678,"gmtModify":1684496528378,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970221454","repostId":"2336951950","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970370921,"gmtCreate":1684078911363,"gmtModify":1684078913086,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970370921","repostId":"1154230640","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154230640","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1684060454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154230640?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-14 18:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? 90% of funds underperformed the market during the year. Who caught the bull market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154230640","media":"券商中国","summary":"大盘在涨，账户却在亏损！开年以来，上证指数上涨5.93%，更是一度冲上3400点，沪深300指数上涨1.71%，人工智能、中特估等热门概念股涨势喜人。然而，投资者们感受却颇有不同，亦有网友调侃，“大盘","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The market is rising, but the account is losing money!</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 5.93%, and once reached 3,400 points. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen by 1.71%. Popular concept stocks such as artificial intelligence and China Special Evaluation have seen gratifying gains. However, investors' feelings are quite different, and some netizens ridiculed, \"The market has risen so heartbreaking! Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400!\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Similarly, institutional investors failed to enjoy the 3400-point \"win\". Isolated from the structural market, most funds did not perform as well as the market index and missed this round of market. The performance of active equity funds is hardly optimistic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind data shows that nearly 90% of active equity funds did not perform as well as the Shanghai Composite Index during the year, and nearly 60% of funds even suffered losses. However, fund products with good performance are sought after by Christians and have received a large number of subscriptions. In order to maintain the sustainability of good performance, these scarce high-quality funds control the management scale through purchase restrictions.</p><p><strong>90% of funds underperformed the market during the year</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Public Offering of Fund's performance during the year significantly underperformed various market indexes. Wind data shows that as of May 14, the partial stock hybrid fund index composed of more than 3,600 partial stock hybrid fund indexes (including C shares) has fallen by 3.25% this year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Judging from the performance of Public Offering of Fund, it is not difficult to find that the overall profit-making effect of A-share investment this year is poor. Specifically, among the more than 4,200 active equity funds, more than 3,700 funds underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, accounting for nearly 90%, of which more than 2,400 funds suffered performance losses, accounting for nearly 60%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What makes holders depressed is that when the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3,400 points and hit a new high for the year, many holders suffered significant losses in their positions. As of May 10, 16 active equity funds had lost more than 20% during the year. More than 2,000 funds have even suffered losses for two consecutive years, including many tens of billions of fund products that have lost more than 20% for two consecutive years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that, under the background of continuous market fluctuations and large-scale losses in fund product performance, the number of Public Offering of Fund funds whose funds have expired and liquidated has reached 97 this year, approaching the 100 mark, which is a historic small peak. Among them, equity funds have become the main force in liquidation, accounting for nearly 80%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insufficient scale is a common reason for fund liquidation. Some professionals said that in recent years, the market conditions have not been good, the performance and scale of mini-funds are difficult to improve, and the input and output are low. Fund managers have accelerated the survival of the fittest in the industry by liquidating mini-funds.</p><p><strong>Scarce high-quality funds limit purchases and control scale</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the overall performance of Public Offering of Fund products is not good, there are still many funds that have withstood market fluctuations, stepped out of independent trends, and continued to create value for holders.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind data shows that there are still 222 active equity funds whose performance has increased by more than 10% during the year. For example, among the funds with large product scale, Dong Chen's Huatai Beruifuli, Zhou Haidong's Huashang Advantage Industry, Hu Yibin's Huaan Media Internet, Xu Wenxing's China-Europe pension industry has all performed well.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>During the period of market turmoil, the net value of many active equity funds has repeatedly hit new highs, such as Fan Kun's Rongtong Domestic Demand Driven AB, Jiang Cheng's Zhongtai Dividend Preferred One-Year Holding, Yang Xinxin's ICBC Select Balance and other 29 funds established for more than one year. The net value of the fund set a new record this month.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, during the market downturn, some well-known fund managers with high-quality performance did the opposite and controlled the management scale through purchase restrictions. Since May, funds managed by Bao Wuyu, Lin Yingrui, Zhou Zhishuo and Zhou Haidong have started the purchase restriction mode. Many of these funds have continuously lowered the purchase limit amount.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The announcement shows that the flexible allocation mix of the value margin of Invesco Great Wall, which Bao has no management, will be limited to 2 million yuan starting from May 5. The new blue-chip stock ticket of CCB Potential managed by Zhou Zhishuo is limited to 10,000 yuan since May 4th. The Chinese Business New Trend Preferred Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund managed by Zhou Haidong has a purchase limit of 300,000 yuan starting from May 4.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During the market downturn, behind the fund purchase restriction is the pursuit of high-quality funds by holders. As the A-share market continues to fluctuate, the scarce high-quality funds attract a large number of holders to actively subscribe.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that when the A-share market fluctuates and adjusts, the inflow of funds is constantly accelerating. Wind data shows that as of May 10, since May, the share of ETFs has increased by 24 billion shares, the total share has reached 1.59 trillion shares, and the total scale has reached 1.69 trillion yuan. Among them, the total share of stock ETFs has increased by 19.342 billion shares, 4 consecutive months. Continuous net inflows.</p><p><strong>Opportunities in the A-share market far outweigh risks</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The fund underperformed the index on a large scale, which is considered to be the ultimate interpretation of structural market conditions such as artificial intelligence and special valuation, and is not the norm of the market. According to industry insiders, the opportunities in the medium-term A-share market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of this year, the market trend has been relatively diverged. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, said that with the arrival of the market in May, the style of the market has begun to switch, and investors have begun to pay attention to high-quality leading stocks with excellent performance. Consumption and new energy are expected to stop falling and rebound, taking over the baton of the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deng Hequan, a senior strategist at China Merchants Fund, believes that stocks are still in the window of structural long positions. Overall, 2023 may be a process of rising the bottom and moving up the market center. Industries that have performed against the market in this round of adjustment may be expected to become the main line of investment throughout the year. At present, investors' policy expectations and geopolitical expectations are not high and sufficient, so there is not much room for index adjustment. Secondly, the occurrence of risk events will still change the expected attitude, distribution and aggravate the wait-and-see mood. Therefore, for stocks that avoid pure theme speculation, the next stage of opportunities may gradually transition to growth stocks that are expected to be revised upward and have low risk characteristics.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regarding the market outlook, Bosera Fund believes that as the Federal Reserve's rate hike gradually comes to an end, the external liquidity pressure faced by A-shares gradually eases. As far as the global equity market is concerned, the macro environment faced by A-shares is relatively better; At present, the P/E of Shanghai Composite Index and Growth Enterprise Market Index are below the median level in the past three years, and the overall valuation is relatively low, which still has good medium and long-term investment value.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The stock market as a whole fluctuated in May. HSBC Jintrust said that structural opportunities occurred frequently and the valuation of the value sector was restored. At present, economic expectations are gradually recovering, valuations are still relatively low, and medium-and long-term capital allocation is in a good range. With the repair of the valuation of the low valuation sector, the market style may become more balanced.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? 90% of funds underperformed the market during the year. Who caught the bull market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? 90% of funds underperformed the market during the year. Who caught the bull market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-14 18:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The market is rising, but the account is losing money!</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 5.93%, and once reached 3,400 points. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen by 1.71%. Popular concept stocks such as artificial intelligence and China Special Evaluation have seen gratifying gains. However, investors' feelings are quite different, and some netizens ridiculed, \"The market has risen so heartbreaking! Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400!\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Similarly, institutional investors failed to enjoy the 3400-point \"win\". Isolated from the structural market, most funds did not perform as well as the market index and missed this round of market. The performance of active equity funds is hardly optimistic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind data shows that nearly 90% of active equity funds did not perform as well as the Shanghai Composite Index during the year, and nearly 60% of funds even suffered losses. However, fund products with good performance are sought after by Christians and have received a large number of subscriptions. In order to maintain the sustainability of good performance, these scarce high-quality funds control the management scale through purchase restrictions.</p><p><strong>90% of funds underperformed the market during the year</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Public Offering of Fund's performance during the year significantly underperformed various market indexes. Wind data shows that as of May 14, the partial stock hybrid fund index composed of more than 3,600 partial stock hybrid fund indexes (including C shares) has fallen by 3.25% this year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Judging from the performance of Public Offering of Fund, it is not difficult to find that the overall profit-making effect of A-share investment this year is poor. Specifically, among the more than 4,200 active equity funds, more than 3,700 funds underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, accounting for nearly 90%, of which more than 2,400 funds suffered performance losses, accounting for nearly 60%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What makes holders depressed is that when the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3,400 points and hit a new high for the year, many holders suffered significant losses in their positions. As of May 10, 16 active equity funds had lost more than 20% during the year. More than 2,000 funds have even suffered losses for two consecutive years, including many tens of billions of fund products that have lost more than 20% for two consecutive years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that, under the background of continuous market fluctuations and large-scale losses in fund product performance, the number of Public Offering of Fund funds whose funds have expired and liquidated has reached 97 this year, approaching the 100 mark, which is a historic small peak. Among them, equity funds have become the main force in liquidation, accounting for nearly 80%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insufficient scale is a common reason for fund liquidation. Some professionals said that in recent years, the market conditions have not been good, the performance and scale of mini-funds are difficult to improve, and the input and output are low. Fund managers have accelerated the survival of the fittest in the industry by liquidating mini-funds.</p><p><strong>Scarce high-quality funds limit purchases and control scale</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the overall performance of Public Offering of Fund products is not good, there are still many funds that have withstood market fluctuations, stepped out of independent trends, and continued to create value for holders.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind data shows that there are still 222 active equity funds whose performance has increased by more than 10% during the year. For example, among the funds with large product scale, Dong Chen's Huatai Beruifuli, Zhou Haidong's Huashang Advantage Industry, Hu Yibin's Huaan Media Internet, Xu Wenxing's China-Europe pension industry has all performed well.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>During the period of market turmoil, the net value of many active equity funds has repeatedly hit new highs, such as Fan Kun's Rongtong Domestic Demand Driven AB, Jiang Cheng's Zhongtai Dividend Preferred One-Year Holding, Yang Xinxin's ICBC Select Balance and other 29 funds established for more than one year. The net value of the fund set a new record this month.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, during the market downturn, some well-known fund managers with high-quality performance did the opposite and controlled the management scale through purchase restrictions. Since May, funds managed by Bao Wuyu, Lin Yingrui, Zhou Zhishuo and Zhou Haidong have started the purchase restriction mode. Many of these funds have continuously lowered the purchase limit amount.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The announcement shows that the flexible allocation mix of the value margin of Invesco Great Wall, which Bao has no management, will be limited to 2 million yuan starting from May 5. The new blue-chip stock ticket of CCB Potential managed by Zhou Zhishuo is limited to 10,000 yuan since May 4th. The Chinese Business New Trend Preferred Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund managed by Zhou Haidong has a purchase limit of 300,000 yuan starting from May 4.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During the market downturn, behind the fund purchase restriction is the pursuit of high-quality funds by holders. As the A-share market continues to fluctuate, the scarce high-quality funds attract a large number of holders to actively subscribe.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that when the A-share market fluctuates and adjusts, the inflow of funds is constantly accelerating. Wind data shows that as of May 10, since May, the share of ETFs has increased by 24 billion shares, the total share has reached 1.59 trillion shares, and the total scale has reached 1.69 trillion yuan. Among them, the total share of stock ETFs has increased by 19.342 billion shares, 4 consecutive months. Continuous net inflows.</p><p><strong>Opportunities in the A-share market far outweigh risks</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The fund underperformed the index on a large scale, which is considered to be the ultimate interpretation of structural market conditions such as artificial intelligence and special valuation, and is not the norm of the market. According to industry insiders, the opportunities in the medium-term A-share market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of this year, the market trend has been relatively diverged. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, said that with the arrival of the market in May, the style of the market has begun to switch, and investors have begun to pay attention to high-quality leading stocks with excellent performance. Consumption and new energy are expected to stop falling and rebound, taking over the baton of the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deng Hequan, a senior strategist at China Merchants Fund, believes that stocks are still in the window of structural long positions. Overall, 2023 may be a process of rising the bottom and moving up the market center. Industries that have performed against the market in this round of adjustment may be expected to become the main line of investment throughout the year. At present, investors' policy expectations and geopolitical expectations are not high and sufficient, so there is not much room for index adjustment. Secondly, the occurrence of risk events will still change the expected attitude, distribution and aggravate the wait-and-see mood. Therefore, for stocks that avoid pure theme speculation, the next stage of opportunities may gradually transition to growth stocks that are expected to be revised upward and have low risk characteristics.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regarding the market outlook, Bosera Fund believes that as the Federal Reserve's rate hike gradually comes to an end, the external liquidity pressure faced by A-shares gradually eases. As far as the global equity market is concerned, the macro environment faced by A-shares is relatively better; At present, the P/E of Shanghai Composite Index and Growth Enterprise Market Index are below the median level in the past three years, and the overall valuation is relatively low, which still has good medium and long-term investment value.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The stock market as a whole fluctuated in May. HSBC Jintrust said that structural opportunities occurred frequently and the valuation of the value sector was restored. At present, economic expectations are gradually recovering, valuations are still relatively low, and medium-and long-term capital allocation is in a good range. With the repair of the valuation of the low valuation sector, the market style may become more balanced.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154230640","content_text":"大盘在涨，账户却在亏损！开年以来，上证指数上涨5.93%，更是一度冲上3400点，沪深300指数上涨1.71%，人工智能、中特估等热门概念股涨势喜人。然而，投资者们感受却颇有不同，亦有网友调侃，“大盘涨得让人心痛！买在2800，套在3400！”。同样，机构投资者也未能享受到3400点的“胜利”。与结构性行情绝缘，大多数基金表现不及大盘指数，错失本轮行情，主动权益基金业绩难言乐观。Wind数据显示，年内近九成主动权益基金业绩不及上证指数，近六成基金业绩甚至出现亏损。不过，业绩表现好的基金产品受到基民追捧，获得大量申购，为了保持良好业绩的持续性，这些稀缺的绩优基金则通过限购控制管理规模。年内九成基金跑输大盘公募基金年内业绩大幅跑输各类大盘指数。Wind数据显示，截至5月14日，由3600余只偏股混合型基金指数（含C份额）构成的偏股混合型基金指数今年以来下跌3.25%。从公募基金业绩表现来看，不难发现，今年A股投资整体赚钱效应较差。具体来看，4200余只主动权益基金中，3700余只基金跑输上证指数，占比近九成，其中2400余只基金业绩亏损，占比近六成。让持有人郁闷的是，在上证指数站上3400点、创下年内新高时，不少持有人持仓亏损明显，截至5月10日，已有16只主动权益基金年内亏损超20%，2000余只基金甚至已经连续2年亏损，其中不乏百亿基金产品连续2年亏损超20%。值得一提的是，在市场不断波动、基金产品业绩出现大面积亏损的背景下，今年以来基金到期清盘的公募基金数量达到97只，逼近百只关口，为历史性小高峰，其中，权益类基金成为清盘主力军，占比近八成。规模不足是基金清盘常见的原因。有专业人士表示，近年市场行情不佳，迷你基金业绩、规模都很难有起色，投入产出较低，基金管理人通过清盘迷你基金加速行业优胜劣汰。稀缺绩优基金限购控规模虽然公募基金产品整体业绩表现不佳，不过仍有不少基金抵御住市场波动，走出独立走势，为持有人持续创造价值。Wind数据显示，年内仍有222只主动权益基金业绩涨幅超10%，如产品规模较大的基金中，董辰的华泰伯瑞富利、周海栋的华商优势行业、胡宜斌的华安媒体互联网、许文星的中欧养老产业均有不错业绩表现。市场震荡期，也有不少主动权益基金净值屡创新高，如范琨的融通内需驱动AB、姜诚的中泰红利优选一年持有、杨鑫鑫的工银精选平衡等29只成立一年以上的基金净值在本月刷新历史最高纪录。此外，在市场低迷期，一些绩优知名基金经理反其道而为之，通过限购控制管理规模。5月份以来，鲍无可、林英睿、周智硕和周海栋等管理的基金纷纷开启限购模式。其中不少基金不断下调限购金额。公告显示，鲍无可管理的景顺长城价值边际灵活配置混合自5月5日起，限购200万元。周智硕管理的建信潜力新蓝筹股票自5月4日起，限购1万元。周海栋管理的华商新趋势优选灵活配置混合基金自5月4日起限购30万元。市场低迷期，基金限购的背后则是持有人对绩优基金的追逐。在A股市场持续震荡，稀缺的绩优基金吸引大量持有人积极申购。值得注意的是，在A股市场震荡调整时，不断有资金在加速流入。Wind数据显示，截至5月10日，5月以来，ETF份额增加240亿份，总份额达到1.59万亿份，总规模达到1.69万亿元，其中股票型ETF总份额增长193.42亿份，连续4个月持续净流入。A股市场机会远大于风险基金大面积跑输指数，被认为是人工智能、中特估等结构性行情的极致演绎，并非市场常态。业内人士表示，中期维度A股市场机会远大于风险。今年以来市场的走势出现了比较大的分化，前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙表示，随着5月份行情的到来，市场的风格已经开始有所切换，投资者开始关注业绩优良的优质龙头股，消费、新能源有望止跌回升，接过行情的接力棒。招商基金资深策略分析师邓和权认为，目前股票仍处在结构做多的窗口，总体来看2023年或是一个底部抬升、市场中枢上移的过程。本轮调整中有逆市表现的行业或有望成为全年投资主线。当下投资者对政策预期、地缘预期均不高且较充分，因此指数调整空间不大。其次，风险事件的出现仍然会改变预期的态度、分布与加剧观望情绪。因此回避纯主题炒作的股票，下一阶段的机会或将逐渐过渡到预期有望上修、风险特征不高的成长股。对于后市，博时基金认为，随着美联储加息逐步进入尾声，A股面临的外围流动性压力逐步缓和，就全球权益市场来看，A股面临的宏观环境相对更优；且当前沪指与创业板指的市盈率处于近三年中位数以下水平，整体估值相对较低，依然具有不错的中长期投资价值。5月股市整体震荡，汇丰晋信表示，结构性机会频出，价值板块估值修复。目前经济预期逐步修复，估值仍在相对低位，中长期资金配置较好区间。伴随低估值板块估值修复，市场风格或将更加均衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947266194,"gmtCreate":1683201230118,"gmtModify":1683201233972,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947266194","repostId":"1185922715","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185922715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1683200165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185922715?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 19:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Not just relying on the \"moat\"! Buffett also has a big investment \"trick\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185922715","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。一年一度的“投资界春晚”、伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东会将在周六召开，这时候，普通投资者又会抛出灵魂一问：巴菲特","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends, and Berkshire is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The annual \"Investment Spring Festival Gala\" and Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting will be held on Saturday. At this time, ordinary investors will throw out their souls and ask again:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why is Buffett's stock picking so successful?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To this question, the Wall Street Journal summarized two answers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the article published by the newspaper on Wednesday, one answer is known to everyone, that is, Buffett's superb ability to select high-quality companies, and the other is much less remarkable-his favor of dividend-paying stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Note that,<strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Dow Jones Market Data's analysis of company announcements,<strong>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly a fifth of that will come from Chevron, one of Berkshire's largest holdings,<strong>Chevron has increased its dividend for 36 consecutive years.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Dow Jones market data shows that Berkshire will also receive more than $700 million each from Coca-Cola, Apple and Bank of America, more than $500 million from Kraft Heinz and about $363 million from American Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa8ab5d9e43dc821c224f2bc8d3a57b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"That's what he likes: dividend payouts and buybacks,\"</strong>Todd Finkle, a professor of entrepreneurship at Gonzaga University, said that Finkle once wrote a book about Buffett's career.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle said Buffet is adept at picking companies that have stood the test of time and improved their Dividend in many economic cycles. Over time, this both increases the value of Berkshire's stock portfolio and expands the company's ample cash reserves that can be used for its own business as well as acquisitions and stock buybacks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Berkshire's most recent earnings report, the company will have $128.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents by the end of 2022.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle said favoring dividend stocks is not Buffett's \"secret weapon\", but it is part of it.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Take Buffett's favorite Coca-Cola as an example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1994, Berkshire Hathaway bought about 400 million Coca-Cola shares it currently holds for $1.3 billion, and received $75 million in cash Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>In 2022, this figure has nearly tenfold to $704 million, and the market value of Berkshire's Coca-Cola stake has soared to $25 billion.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders released earlier this year,<strong>Dividend grows every year, as sure as a birthday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in his shareholder letter:</p><p>All Charlie (Munger) and I have to do is cash Coca-Cola's quarterly Dividend check.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffet and Munger expect Coca-Cola to continue to improve its Dividend in the future. Coca-Cola said in February that it had approved its 61st consecutive annual Dividend increase.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In other words, according to Finkle, Buffett's \"secret weapon\" for stock selection is actually \"selecting high-quality companies + dividend-paying stocks.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The use of this \"secret weapon\" on American Express has achieved similar returns for Berkshire.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1995, Berkshire completed the vast majority of the transaction to buy American Express shares for $1.3 billion, and received $41 million in Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last year, Berkshire's stake in American Express was worth $22 billion, and it received $302 million in Dividend from the latter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"These Dividend gains are satisfactory, but they are far from amazing,\" Buffet said in his letter. \"But what matters is that they bring about a rise in the share price.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Generally speaking, investors tend to reinvest dividends into the original stocks, but Berkshire has not reinvested dividends from Coca-Cola and American Express into these two stocks. The company's share buybacks over the years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact,<strong>Berkshire hasn't overweight Coca-Cola and American Express shares since the 1990s, and some speculate that this may be because he hates paying too much for his investments.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in a letter to Berkshire shareholders in 1983:</p><p>For investors, buying shares of a good company at an exorbitant price may offset the impact of the ensuing decade of favorable business development.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that although Dividend can provide stable income like bonds, it still presents risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, if a company's cash flow is tight, it can cut or even suspend dividends, and the suspension of dividends often leads to a decline in stock prices, because investors often see it as a signal of a major financial crisis. In addition, when investors choose more expensive growth stocks, their Dividend tends to underperform.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Not just relying on the \"moat\"! Buffett also has a big investment \"trick\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNot just relying on the \"moat\"! Buffett also has a big investment \"trick\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-04 19:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends, and Berkshire is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The annual \"Investment Spring Festival Gala\" and Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting will be held on Saturday. At this time, ordinary investors will throw out their souls and ask again:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why is Buffett's stock picking so successful?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To this question, the Wall Street Journal summarized two answers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the article published by the newspaper on Wednesday, one answer is known to everyone, that is, Buffett's superb ability to select high-quality companies, and the other is much less remarkable-his favor of dividend-paying stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Note that,<strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Dow Jones Market Data's analysis of company announcements,<strong>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly a fifth of that will come from Chevron, one of Berkshire's largest holdings,<strong>Chevron has increased its dividend for 36 consecutive years.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Dow Jones market data shows that Berkshire will also receive more than $700 million each from Coca-Cola, Apple and Bank of America, more than $500 million from Kraft Heinz and about $363 million from American Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa8ab5d9e43dc821c224f2bc8d3a57b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"That's what he likes: dividend payouts and buybacks,\"</strong>Todd Finkle, a professor of entrepreneurship at Gonzaga University, said that Finkle once wrote a book about Buffett's career.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle said Buffet is adept at picking companies that have stood the test of time and improved their Dividend in many economic cycles. Over time, this both increases the value of Berkshire's stock portfolio and expands the company's ample cash reserves that can be used for its own business as well as acquisitions and stock buybacks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Berkshire's most recent earnings report, the company will have $128.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents by the end of 2022.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle said favoring dividend stocks is not Buffett's \"secret weapon\", but it is part of it.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Take Buffett's favorite Coca-Cola as an example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1994, Berkshire Hathaway bought about 400 million Coca-Cola shares it currently holds for $1.3 billion, and received $75 million in cash Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>In 2022, this figure has nearly tenfold to $704 million, and the market value of Berkshire's Coca-Cola stake has soared to $25 billion.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders released earlier this year,<strong>Dividend grows every year, as sure as a birthday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in his shareholder letter:</p><p>All Charlie (Munger) and I have to do is cash Coca-Cola's quarterly Dividend check.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffet and Munger expect Coca-Cola to continue to improve its Dividend in the future. Coca-Cola said in February that it had approved its 61st consecutive annual Dividend increase.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In other words, according to Finkle, Buffett's \"secret weapon\" for stock selection is actually \"selecting high-quality companies + dividend-paying stocks.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The use of this \"secret weapon\" on American Express has achieved similar returns for Berkshire.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1995, Berkshire completed the vast majority of the transaction to buy American Express shares for $1.3 billion, and received $41 million in Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last year, Berkshire's stake in American Express was worth $22 billion, and it received $302 million in Dividend from the latter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"These Dividend gains are satisfactory, but they are far from amazing,\" Buffet said in his letter. \"But what matters is that they bring about a rise in the share price.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Generally speaking, investors tend to reinvest dividends into the original stocks, but Berkshire has not reinvested dividends from Coca-Cola and American Express into these two stocks. The company's share buybacks over the years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact,<strong>Berkshire hasn't overweight Coca-Cola and American Express shares since the 1990s, and some speculate that this may be because he hates paying too much for his investments.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in a letter to Berkshire shareholders in 1983:</p><p>For investors, buying shares of a good company at an exorbitant price may offset the impact of the ensuing decade of favorable business development.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that although Dividend can provide stable income like bonds, it still presents risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, if a company's cash flow is tight, it can cut or even suspend dividends, and the suspension of dividends often leads to a decline in stock prices, because investors often see it as a signal of a major financial crisis. In addition, when investors choose more expensive growth stocks, their Dividend tends to underperform.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687974\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687974","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185922715","content_text":"巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。一年一度的“投资界春晚”、伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东会将在周六召开，这时候，普通投资者又会抛出灵魂一问：巴菲特的选股为什么会如此成功？对于这个问题，《华尔街日报》总结了两个答案。根据该报周三发布的文章，其中一个答案无人不晓，即巴菲特出神入化的挑选优质公司的能力，另外一个则不起眼得多——青睐派息股。注意，巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息。根据Dow Jones Market Data对公司公告的分析，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。其中近五分之一将来自伯克希尔最大持股之一的雪佛龙，雪佛龙已连续36年增加派息。另外，道琼斯市场数据显示，伯克希尔还将从可口可乐、苹果和美国银行各拿到逾7亿美元，从卡夫亨氏公司拿到逾5亿美元，从美国运通公司拿到约3.63亿美元。 “这就是他喜欢的：派息和回购，”贡萨加大学创业学教授Todd Finkle说，Finkle曾写过一本关于巴菲特职业生涯的书。Finkle说，巴菲特擅长挑选在许多经济周期中经受住时间考验并提高股息的公司。随着时间推移，这既增加了伯克希尔股票投资组合的价值，也扩大了公司能够用于自身业务以及收购和股票回购的充足现金储备。根据伯克希尔最近的财报，公司到2022年年底拥有1286亿美元的现金和现金等价物。Finkle表示，青睐派息股并非巴菲特的“秘密武器”，但确是其中一部分。拿巴菲特最爱的可口可乐举例。1994年，伯克希尔·哈撒韦以13亿美元买入其目前持有的大约4亿股可口可乐股份，当年就获得了7500万美元的现金股息。2022年，这一数字翻了近十倍至7.04亿美元，而伯克希尔持有的可口可乐股份市值也已飙升至250亿美元。巴菲特在今年早些时候发布的年度致股东信中称，股息每年都会增长，就像生日一样确定无疑。巴菲特在股东信中表示：我和查理（芒格）要做的只是兑现可口可乐的季度股息支票。巴菲特和芒格预计，可口可乐未来将继续提高股息。可口可乐2月份表示，已批准连续第61次提高年度股息。也就是说，按照Finkle的说法，巴菲特选股的“秘密武器”其实是“挑选优质公司+派息股”。该“秘密武器”用在美国运通公司身上也为伯克希尔实现了类似的回报。伯克希尔1995年完成了以13亿美元买入美国运通股份的绝大部分交易，并在当年获得了4100万美元的股息。去年，伯克希尔所持美国运通股份价值为220亿美元，并从后者获得了3.02亿美元的股息。“这些股息收益固然令人满意，却远谈不上惊人，”巴菲特在他的信中表示。“但重要的是它们带来了股价的上涨。”一般来说，投资者倾向于将分红重新投资到原股票上，但伯克希尔并没有将可口可乐和美国运通的分红重新投资到这两只股票中，持股比例升高则是因为两家公司多年以来的股票回购。事实上，伯克希尔自1990年代以来就没有加码可口可乐和美国运通股票，有人推测，这可能是因为他讨厌为投资支付过高的价格。巴菲特在1983年写给伯克希尔股东的信中说：对于投资者来说，以过高的价格购买一家优秀公司的股票，可能会抵消随后十年有利的业务发展所产生的影响。值得注意的是，股息虽然能够像债券一样提供稳定的收入，但仍存在风险。比如，如果一家公司现金流紧张，它可以削减甚至是暂停派息，而暂停派息又往往会导致股价下跌，因为投资者经常其视为公司出现重大财务危机的信号。另外，当投资者选择较昂贵的成长股时，其股息也往往表现不佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947646940,"gmtCreate":1683116807581,"gmtModify":1683116811218,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947646940","repostId":"1166168941","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166168941","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683116159,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166168941?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-03 20:15","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166168941","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数减少2.8万人，3月减少5.1万人；4月贸易/运输/","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, the number of U.S. ADP employment in April was 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022; It is expected to be 148,000, compared with the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>ADP report: Financial services employment decreased by 28,000 in April and 51,000 in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of trade/transportation/utility employees in April was 6.6%, compared with 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of employees in the construction industry in April was 6.9%, compared with 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of professional/business service employees in April was 6.3%, compared with 6.4% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of manufacturing employees in April was 6.2%, compared with 6.5% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of employees in the financial services industry was 6.7% in April, compared with 6.8% in March.</p><p>After the data was released, U.S. stock futures showed little short-term fluctuations, and Nasdaq 100 index futures maintained an increase of about 0.3%. The US Dollar Index rose more than 10 points in the short term and is now at 101.67. Spot gold fell about US $2 in the short term and is now trading at US $2,013.50 per ounce.</p><p><strong>Agency evaluation of ADP employment in the United States:</strong>Private U.S. companies added 296,000 jobs in April, signaling a hiring boom despite a sharp slowdown in wage growth for those who changed jobs.</p><p><strong>ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson:</strong>The slowdown in wage growth gives the clearest signal of the current state of the labor market, and employers are reining in salary growth while hiring aggressively. Our data also shows that fewer people are changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Financial website Forexlive commented on U.S. ADP data in April:</strong>It's a strong number and underscores why the Fed's job is so tough. They couldn't reasonably raise wages without disrupting the banking system, but the addition of nearly 300,000 jobs shows that the pressure on wage growth has not gone away.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-03 20:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, the number of U.S. ADP employment in April was 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022; It is expected to be 148,000, compared with the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>ADP report: Financial services employment decreased by 28,000 in April and 51,000 in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of trade/transportation/utility employees in April was 6.6%, compared with 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of employees in the construction industry in April was 6.9%, compared with 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of professional/business service employees in April was 6.3%, compared with 6.4% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of manufacturing employees in April was 6.2%, compared with 6.5% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of employees in the financial services industry was 6.7% in April, compared with 6.8% in March.</p><p>After the data was released, U.S. stock futures showed little short-term fluctuations, and Nasdaq 100 index futures maintained an increase of about 0.3%. The US Dollar Index rose more than 10 points in the short term and is now at 101.67. Spot gold fell about US $2 in the short term and is now trading at US $2,013.50 per ounce.</p><p><strong>Agency evaluation of ADP employment in the United States:</strong>Private U.S. companies added 296,000 jobs in April, signaling a hiring boom despite a sharp slowdown in wage growth for those who changed jobs.</p><p><strong>ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson:</strong>The slowdown in wage growth gives the clearest signal of the current state of the labor market, and employers are reining in salary growth while hiring aggressively. Our data also shows that fewer people are changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Financial website Forexlive commented on U.S. ADP data in April:</strong>It's a strong number and underscores why the Fed's job is so tough. They couldn't reasonably raise wages without disrupting the banking system, but the addition of nearly 300,000 jobs shows that the pressure on wage growth has not gone away.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166168941","content_text":"5月3日，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数减少2.8万人，3月减少5.1万人；4月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.6%，3月为7.0%；4月建筑业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.9%，3月为7.0%；4月专业/商业服务就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.3%，3月为6.4%；4月制造业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.2%，3月为6.5%；4月金融服务业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.7%，3月为6.8%。数据公布后，美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.3%的涨幅。美元指数短线拉升逾10点，现报101.67。现货黄金短线走低约2美元，现报2013.50美元/盎司。机构评美国ADP就业人数：美国私营企业4月份增加了29.6万个就业岗位，表明尽管换工作的人的工资增长大幅放缓，但仍出现了招聘热潮。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：薪资增长放缓给出了当前劳动力市场状况的最清晰信号，雇主们在大举招聘的同时，也在控制薪资增长。我们的数据还显示，换工作的人越来越少。财经网站Forexlive评美国4月ADP数据：这是一个强劲的数字，也突显出美联储的工作为何如此艰难。他们不可能在不破坏银行体系的情况下合理地提高工资，但增加了近30万个工作岗位表明，工资增长的压力并没有消失。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947810878,"gmtCreate":1682859685094,"gmtModify":1682859688499,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947810878","repostId":"2331122664","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2331122664","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682828286,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2331122664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-30 12:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How long can US technology stocks be bullish? Just look at the financial reports of Apple and AMD next week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2331122664","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"后续财报可能“喜忧参半”，AI热潮带动芯片需求增加，AMD、高通财报指引可能好于预期，而苹果可能会公布其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩。经济衰退阴云笼罩下，微软、Meta等科技巨头扛住了压力，一季度业绩超","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Subsequent financial reports may be \"mixed\", the AI boom has driven an increase in chip demand, AMD and Qualcomm's financial guidance may be better than expected, and Apple may announce that its product department has shrunk across the board for the first time in three years.</strong>Under the cloud of economic recession,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, Meta and other technology giants withstood the pressure, and their first-quarter results exceeded expectations.</p><p>Specifically, Meta's \"salted fish turned over\", and its revenue in the first quarter unexpectedly reversed three consecutive quarters of declines; Microsoft's performance last quarter exceeded expectations, and cloud business revenue maintained double-digit growth;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>In the first quarter, search returned to growth, and the cloud business turned losses into profits.</p><p>In addition, despite record losses in chip stocks, earnings guidance is positive. SK Hynix pointed out that improved demand combined with production cuts may boost the market, and the chip market will rebound in the second quarter. However, on the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Warnings of sluggish growth in its cloud computing business, as well as Cloudflare's move to cut its full-year revenue forecast, underscore the uncertainty of the overall economy.</p><p><strong>The unexpected earnings report eased market concerns about slowing demand for technology products, driving U.S. stocks to rebound.</strong>The S&P 500 index posted its biggest one-day gain since the first week of the year on Thursday, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed up 2.76%, its biggest gain since January 20.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822b80c8c4e84fc0602fb949d5d61757\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"614\"/></p><p><strong>And next week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And AMD will disclose the demand for more technology products, and its financial performance will become the key to whether technology stocks can continue to rebound. The following is the earnings preview:</strong></p><p>Tuesday: AMD will release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes. The artificial intelligence boom is expected to drive the demand for chips in data centers, and the resulting increase in demand may offset the continued weakness in PC-side chip sales. With its customer and gaming segments still sluggish, data centers will be key for AMD to earn revenue.</p><p>Wednesday: Qualcomm will announce results after the U.S. stock market closes. Investors will take a closer look at Qualcomm's quarterly guidance for signs of recovery and inventory replenishment by OEMs amid continued weakness in smartphone demand. Last month, chip giants Micron Technology and Infineon Technologies provided better-than-expected guidance, raising hopes for a rebound.</p><p>Thursday: Apple will announce results after the U.S. stock market closes. Apple is likely to report its product division's first across the board contraction in three years, with iPad and iPhone sales down a year from the previous year, Mac sales slowdown likely to be more pronounced, and weak consumer consumption of high-end devices still weighing on overall growth. The impact of iPhone supply chain issues and foreign exchange headwinds may show up in the earnings report, and Barclays believes this downturn will continue into this quarter, especially as demand for iPhone 14 Pro models slows.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How long can US technology stocks be bullish? Just look at the financial reports of Apple and AMD next week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow long can US technology stocks be bullish? Just look at the financial reports of Apple and AMD next week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-30 12:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Subsequent financial reports may be \"mixed\", the AI boom has driven an increase in chip demand, AMD and Qualcomm's financial guidance may be better than expected, and Apple may announce that its product department has shrunk across the board for the first time in three years.</strong>Under the cloud of economic recession,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, Meta and other technology giants withstood the pressure, and their first-quarter results exceeded expectations.</p><p>Specifically, Meta's \"salted fish turned over\", and its revenue in the first quarter unexpectedly reversed three consecutive quarters of declines; Microsoft's performance last quarter exceeded expectations, and cloud business revenue maintained double-digit growth;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>In the first quarter, search returned to growth, and the cloud business turned losses into profits.</p><p>In addition, despite record losses in chip stocks, earnings guidance is positive. SK Hynix pointed out that improved demand combined with production cuts may boost the market, and the chip market will rebound in the second quarter. However, on the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Warnings of sluggish growth in its cloud computing business, as well as Cloudflare's move to cut its full-year revenue forecast, underscore the uncertainty of the overall economy.</p><p><strong>The unexpected earnings report eased market concerns about slowing demand for technology products, driving U.S. stocks to rebound.</strong>The S&P 500 index posted its biggest one-day gain since the first week of the year on Thursday, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed up 2.76%, its biggest gain since January 20.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822b80c8c4e84fc0602fb949d5d61757\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"614\"/></p><p><strong>And next week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And AMD will disclose the demand for more technology products, and its financial performance will become the key to whether technology stocks can continue to rebound. The following is the earnings preview:</strong></p><p>Tuesday: AMD will release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes. The artificial intelligence boom is expected to drive the demand for chips in data centers, and the resulting increase in demand may offset the continued weakness in PC-side chip sales. With its customer and gaming segments still sluggish, data centers will be key for AMD to earn revenue.</p><p>Wednesday: Qualcomm will announce results after the U.S. stock market closes. Investors will take a closer look at Qualcomm's quarterly guidance for signs of recovery and inventory replenishment by OEMs amid continued weakness in smartphone demand. Last month, chip giants Micron Technology and Infineon Technologies provided better-than-expected guidance, raising hopes for a rebound.</p><p>Thursday: Apple will announce results after the U.S. stock market closes. Apple is likely to report its product division's first across the board contraction in three years, with iPad and iPhone sales down a year from the previous year, Mac sales slowdown likely to be more pronounced, and weak consumer consumption of high-end devices still weighing on overall growth. The impact of iPhone supply chain issues and foreign exchange headwinds may show up in the earnings report, and Barclays believes this downturn will continue into this quarter, especially as demand for iPhone 14 Pro models slows.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687780\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/353f693b3cf73305d444a14080157632","relate_stocks":{"GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","AAPL":"苹果","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687780","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2331122664","content_text":"后续财报可能“喜忧参半”，AI热潮带动芯片需求增加，AMD、高通财报指引可能好于预期，而苹果可能会公布其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩。经济衰退阴云笼罩下，微软、Meta等科技巨头扛住了压力，一季度业绩超出预期。具体来看，Meta“咸鱼翻身”，一季度收入意外扭转三季连降；微软上季度业绩超预期，云业务营收维持两位数增长；谷歌一季度搜索重回增长，云业务扭亏为盈。此外，尽管芯片股业绩亏损创下纪录，但财报指引向好。SK海力士指出，需求改善叠加减产或将提振市场，芯片市场将在二季度出现反弹。不过，另一方面，亚马逊对其云计算业务增长乏力的警告，以及Cloudflare下调全年营收预期的举措，突显出整体经济的不确定性。超预期的财报缓解了市场对科技产品需求放缓的担忧，带动美股反弹。标普500指数在周四创下今年第一周以来的最大单日涨幅，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数收涨2.76%，创1月20日以来最大涨幅。下周，苹果、高通和AMD将披露更多科技产品的需求情况，其财报表现成为科技股能否继续反弹的关键。以下是财报前瞻：周二：AMD将在美股盘后发布财报。人工智能热潮预计将带动数据中心对芯片的需求，带来的需求增加可能会抵消PC端芯片销售的持续疲软。由于其客户和游戏部门仍然低迷，数据中心将是AMD获得收入的关键。周三：高通将在美股盘后公布业绩。在智能手机需求持续疲软的情况下，投资者将仔细研究高通的季度指引，以寻找复苏的迹象和OEM厂商的库存补充。上个月，芯片巨头美光科技和英飞凌科技提供了好于预期的指引，提升了反弹的希望。周四：苹果将在美股盘后公布业绩。苹果可能会报告其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩，iPad和iPhone的销售一年较前下滑，Mac的销售放缓可能更加明显，消费者对高端设备的消费疲软仍然拖累整体增长。iPhone供应链问题和外汇阻力的影响可能会在财报中显示出来，巴克莱认为，这种不景气会延续到本季度，尤其是对iPhone 14 Pro机型的需求放缓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1,"GFS":1,"AMD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947804564,"gmtCreate":1682781272658,"gmtModify":1682819983063,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947804564","repostId":"1193243086","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193243086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682757120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193243086?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-29 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who did the First Republic \"win the flower\"? Report: FDIC asks bidders including JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193243086","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"作为吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，摩根大通的收购在监管方面存在障碍，但为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。岌岌可危的第一共和银行迎来了意向方：摩根大通、PNC都有可能成为最终收购者。据彭博今日报","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>As a large bank that takes more than 10% of deposits, JPMorgan's acquisition has regulatory hurdles, but there is also the possibility of making an exception to save First Republic.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">First Republic Bank, which is in jeopardy, has ushered in interested parties: JPMorgan Chase and PNC may all become the final acquirers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is requiring banks including JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services Group, Bloomberg reported today<strong>Submit a final offer for First Republic Bank by Sunday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regulator solicited interest from the banks on Thursday, including learning about their proposed offers and the estimated cost of First Republic Bank's deposit insurance money, and invited the two companies to participate in the next bidding process on Friday.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg said the bidding process launched by regulators could pave the way for First Republic's sale without going through a lengthy auction process like when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the cliff-like decline in First Republic Bank stock (down 97% this year) has dropped the market value to only $650 million.<strong>This may also provide a degree of viability for the acquisition.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0b589ac7783879dc11eba6207dc3e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News reported earlier today that U.S. officials, including the FDIC, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, are coordinating meetings with other banks to facilitate a rescue plan for First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, advisers of First Republic Bank sought to get several banks that participated in the rescue operation a month ago to buy their assets at a price above the market price.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although buyers buy and lose, these potential buyers' $30 billion in deposits with First Republic Bank are uninsured. If they think First Republic Bank is about to go bankrupt, they could risk losing that money altogether.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, even if the federal government uses emergency powers to guarantee these deposits, large banks will need to replenish the FDIC with huge sums of money. As part of the deal, several banks that bailed out can get some form of equity.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The above scenario will result in short-term losses for the rescued banks, but it may be less costly in the long run than letting First Republic fail and be taken over by regulators.</strong></p><p><h2>Regulatory hurdles</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, although First Republic Bank's market value is running low, regulatory requirements may also add obstacles to the acquisition.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since JPMorgan Chase is one of the few large banks in the United States that attracts more than 10% of deposits,<strong>According to US regulations, the bank is not eligible to acquire another institution that also takes deposits, which will make its scale grow again.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, there is the possibility of an exception to save First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared with the billions of costs that the FDIC has to pay to take over a bank again, the FDIC prefers to limit the solution to the private sector. The agency had previously planned a special assessment of the banking industry to pay for the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, the media quoted sources as saying that the most likely outcome of First Republic Bank is to be taken over by the FDIC. If First Republic Bank is taken over by regulators, the FDIC will still ask other banks to make possible takeover bids. However, sources said at the time that there was still hope of finding a solution that would prevent First Republic from being taken over by the FDIC.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who did the First Republic \"win the flower\"? Report: FDIC asks bidders including JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho did the First Republic \"win the flower\"? Report: FDIC asks bidders including JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-29 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>As a large bank that takes more than 10% of deposits, JPMorgan's acquisition has regulatory hurdles, but there is also the possibility of making an exception to save First Republic.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">First Republic Bank, which is in jeopardy, has ushered in interested parties: JPMorgan Chase and PNC may all become the final acquirers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is requiring banks including JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services Group, Bloomberg reported today<strong>Submit a final offer for First Republic Bank by Sunday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regulator solicited interest from the banks on Thursday, including learning about their proposed offers and the estimated cost of First Republic Bank's deposit insurance money, and invited the two companies to participate in the next bidding process on Friday.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg said the bidding process launched by regulators could pave the way for First Republic's sale without going through a lengthy auction process like when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the cliff-like decline in First Republic Bank stock (down 97% this year) has dropped the market value to only $650 million.<strong>This may also provide a degree of viability for the acquisition.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0b589ac7783879dc11eba6207dc3e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News reported earlier today that U.S. officials, including the FDIC, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, are coordinating meetings with other banks to facilitate a rescue plan for First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, advisers of First Republic Bank sought to get several banks that participated in the rescue operation a month ago to buy their assets at a price above the market price.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although buyers buy and lose, these potential buyers' $30 billion in deposits with First Republic Bank are uninsured. If they think First Republic Bank is about to go bankrupt, they could risk losing that money altogether.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, even if the federal government uses emergency powers to guarantee these deposits, large banks will need to replenish the FDIC with huge sums of money. As part of the deal, several banks that bailed out can get some form of equity.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The above scenario will result in short-term losses for the rescued banks, but it may be less costly in the long run than letting First Republic fail and be taken over by regulators.</strong></p><p><h2>Regulatory hurdles</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, although First Republic Bank's market value is running low, regulatory requirements may also add obstacles to the acquisition.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since JPMorgan Chase is one of the few large banks in the United States that attracts more than 10% of deposits,<strong>According to US regulations, the bank is not eligible to acquire another institution that also takes deposits, which will make its scale grow again.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, there is the possibility of an exception to save First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared with the billions of costs that the FDIC has to pay to take over a bank again, the FDIC prefers to limit the solution to the private sector. The agency had previously planned a special assessment of the banking industry to pay for the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, the media quoted sources as saying that the most likely outcome of First Republic Bank is to be taken over by the FDIC. If First Republic Bank is taken over by regulators, the FDIC will still ask other banks to make possible takeover bids. However, sources said at the time that there was still hope of finding a solution that would prevent First Republic from being taken over by the FDIC.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687776\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc56982f828847b68443cfbde6a957b","relate_stocks":{"FRCB":"第一共和银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687776","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193243086","content_text":"作为吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，摩根大通的收购在监管方面存在障碍，但为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。岌岌可危的第一共和银行迎来了意向方：摩根大通、PNC都有可能成为最终收购者。据彭博今日报道，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）要求包括摩根大通和PNC金融服务集团在内的银行在周日之前提交对第一共和银行的最终报价。监管机构于周四向各家银行征求了意向，包括了解这些银行建议的报价以及对第一共和银行存款保险金的预估成本，并于周五邀请了两家公司参加了下一步的竞标过程。彭博表示，监管机构启动的竞标程序可能为第一共和银行的出售铺平道路，而不会像硅谷银行和签字银行倒闭时经历漫长的拍卖流程。此外，第一共和银行股票的断崖式下跌（今年以来下跌97%）已经使市值跌至仅有6.5亿美元，这可能也为收购提供了一定程度上的可行性。华尔街见闻今日早些时候曾介绍，包括FDIC、美国财政部和美联储在内的美国官员们正在协调与其他银行的会议，以促成对第一共和银行的救助计划。此前，第一共和银行的顾问们寻求让数家参与了一个月前救助行动的银行以高于市价的价格购买其资产。尽管买家买入即亏，但这些潜在买家在第一共和银行的300亿美元存款没有保险。如果他们认为第一共和银行即将破产，他们可能会面临彻底失去这笔钱的风险。此外，即使联邦政府动用紧急权力为这些存款提供担保，大型银行也需要向FDIC补充巨额资金。作为交易的一部分，多家出手救助的银行可以获得某种形式的股权。上述方案将导致出手相救的银行短期内蒙受损失，但从长远来看，可能比让第一共和银行倒闭并被监管机构接管的成本更低。监管障碍然而，尽管第一共和银行的市值已经所剩无几，但监管规定也可能为收购行动增加阻碍。由于摩根大通是全美少数几家吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，根据美国监管规定，该行没有资格再收购一家同样吸收存款的机构，这将令其规模再一次壮大。尽管如此，为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。相比FDIC再次接管一家银行所必须付出的数十亿成本，FDIC更希望将解决方案限制在私营部门。此前该机构已经计划对银行业进行特别评估，以支付硅谷银行和签名银行上个月破产的费用。此前媒体援引消息人士称，第一共和银行最有可能的结果就是被FDIC接管。如果第一共和银行被监管机构接管，FDIC仍将问询其他银行，让他们进行可能的收购投标。不过消息人士当时称，也仍有希望找到一个第一共和不被FDIC接管的解决方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRC":0.9,"FRCB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947158139,"gmtCreate":1682696910222,"gmtModify":1682696913005,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947158139","repostId":"1149416254","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149416254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682695765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149416254?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-28 23:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed blames management problems and poor regulation for Silicon Valley Bank failure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149416254","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"硅谷银行的管理层和总监们未能管理好自家公司的众多风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman for Financial Supervision: Blaming the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on corporate management and inappropriate supervision, will consider improving liquidity and capital requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank's management and directors have failed to manage the many risks of their own companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank has had as many as 31 warnings, which is three times the industry average.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regulators haven't done enough to ensure that Silicon Valley Bank can handle many problems.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve has advocated a less decisive approach to regulation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed's pandering stance and shift in stance hinders regulation (for institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Call for \"stronger standards\" for a wider range of banking institutions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Limiting bank buybacks and dividend payments may be \"appropriate\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Consideration should be given to introducing stricter standards for incentives.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More banking institutions should assess profits and losses and assets for sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Re-evaluate the system for those banks with assets exceeding $100 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell supported several of Barr's proposals for institutions and regulation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed blames management problems and poor regulation for Silicon Valley Bank failure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed blames management problems and poor regulation for Silicon Valley Bank failure\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-28 23:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman for Financial Supervision: Blaming the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on corporate management and inappropriate supervision, will consider improving liquidity and capital requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank's management and directors have failed to manage the many risks of their own companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank has had as many as 31 warnings, which is three times the industry average.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regulators haven't done enough to ensure that Silicon Valley Bank can handle many problems.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve has advocated a less decisive approach to regulation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed's pandering stance and shift in stance hinders regulation (for institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Call for \"stronger standards\" for a wider range of banking institutions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Limiting bank buybacks and dividend payments may be \"appropriate\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Consideration should be given to introducing stricter standards for incentives.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More banking institutions should assess profits and losses and assets for sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Re-evaluate the system for those banks with assets exceeding $100 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell supported several of Barr's proposals for institutions and regulation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2455612\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cd29490297b10c3f50798a61050f13","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2455612","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1149416254","content_text":"美联储负责金融监管事务的副主席Michael Barr：将硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭归咎于公司管理和不适当的监管，将考虑改善流动性和资本要求。硅谷银行的管理层和总监们未能管理好自家公司的众多风险。硅谷银行曾出现多达31项警告，那是行业均值的三倍。在确保硅谷银行能够处置众多问题方面，监管人员们没能付出足够的努力。美联储理事会曾提倡实施不那么果断的监管方式。美联储的迎合姿态和立场转变妨碍到（针对硅谷银行等机构的）监管。呼吁针对更大范围的银行机构实施“更加强有力的标准”。限制银行回购和派息可能会是“适当之举”。应当考虑针对（银行业的）激励机制出台更加严苛的标准。更多的银行机构应当评估盈亏和待售资产。针对那些资产规模超过1000亿美元的银行重新评估制度。美联储主席鲍威尔支持Barr针对制度和监管的若干建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947328082,"gmtCreate":1682592161446,"gmtModify":1682592165089,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947328082","repostId":"1155302222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155302222","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供即時金融資訊、行情、數據，旨在幫助投資者理解世界，做投資決策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎資訊","id":"1059071526","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682591962,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155302222?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-27 18:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"North-South Water Trend | As the long holiday approaches, Beishui net purchases are less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dasu State Index ETFs; Nanshui buys Ping An of China","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155302222","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"北水今日淨入0.8億港元。 全日最多淨入個股為 快手-W，全日有1.49億港元淨買； 中国神华 錄1.24億港元淨入； 中芯国际 有1.13億港元淨入。全日最多淨沽是 恒生中国企业 ，金額爲13.37","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Beishui's net income today was HK $80 million. The maximum net stock income throughout the day is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>, with net purchases of HK $149 million throughout the day;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>Recorded a net income of HK $124 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>There was a net income of HK $113 million.</p><p>The maximum net sales for the whole day is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Corporation</a>, with an amount of HK $1.337 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8532a0f226e1c91f3d47f417d803a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p>Nanshui sold a net A shares of RMB 167 million today. The most net purchased stock throughout the day was Ping An of China, with a net income of RMB 505 million today. The largest net sale throughout the day was China Merchants Bank, which recorded a net sale of RMB 888 million throughout the day.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b389e78b013d6431761ec29758c2a110\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>North-South Water Trend | As the long holiday approaches, Beishui net purchases are less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dasu State Index ETFs; Nanshui buys Ping An of China</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNorth-South Water Trend | As the long holiday approaches, Beishui net purchases are less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dasu State Index ETFs; Nanshui buys Ping An of China\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-27 18:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Beishui's net income today was HK $80 million. The maximum net stock income throughout the day is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>, with net purchases of HK $149 million throughout the day;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>Recorded a net income of HK $124 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>There was a net income of HK $113 million.</p><p>The maximum net sales for the whole day is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Corporation</a>, with an amount of HK $1.337 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8532a0f226e1c91f3d47f417d803a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p>Nanshui sold a net A shares of RMB 167 million today. The most net purchased stock throughout the day was Ping An of China, with a net income of RMB 505 million today. The largest net sale throughout the day was China Merchants Bank, which recorded a net sale of RMB 888 million throughout the day.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b389e78b013d6431761ec29758c2a110\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"601318":"中国平安","02828":"恒生中国企业","HSCEI":"国企指数","00981":"中芯国际","01088":"中国神华","01024":"快手-W","00700":"腾讯控股","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02318":"中国平安","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155302222","content_text":"北水今日淨入0.8億港元。 全日最多淨入個股為 快手-W，全日有1.49億港元淨買； 中国神华 錄1.24億港元淨入； 中芯国际 有1.13億港元淨入。全日最多淨沽是 恒生中国企业 ，金額爲13.37億港元。南水今日淨賣出A股1.67億人民幣。全日最多淨買個股為中國平安 ，今日有5.05億人民幣淨入。全日最多淨沽是招商銀行 ，全日錄8.88億人民幣淨賣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601318":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"02318":0.9,"02828":0.9,"00981":0.9,"01088":0.9,"01024":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947993831,"gmtCreate":1682424732323,"gmtModify":1682424736078,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947993831","repostId":"1181662804","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944761880,"gmtCreate":1682162447540,"gmtModify":1682162452062,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944761880","repostId":"1144371077","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144371077","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682132507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144371077?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-22 11:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144371077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：G","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure. The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will release its first-quarter financial results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know ahead of Alphabet's Q1 earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>The consensus among Wall Street analysts is EPS of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from Q4 2022 and 17% from Q1 2022.</p><p></li><li>Estimates for sales indicate a 10% decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Over the last four quarters, the company has missed earnings and revenue estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Alphabet's earnings estimate was 11% below.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Opinions on Alphabet's earnings</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe the first quarter could show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so the outcome discussion of future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-service stock in the internet group in 2023, with higher relative earnings stability due to spending flexibility, high margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's Stock Performance and Valuation</strong></p><p>At $105 a share, Alphabet is up more than 19% year-to-date at the time of writing, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>Shares are nearly 30% below their all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, shares rose 17.5%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to professional data from Benzinga, the stock has a forward P/E of 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-22 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure. The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will release its first-quarter financial results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know ahead of Alphabet's Q1 earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>The consensus among Wall Street analysts is EPS of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from Q4 2022 and 17% from Q1 2022.</p><p></li><li>Estimates for sales indicate a 10% decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Over the last four quarters, the company has missed earnings and revenue estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Alphabet's earnings estimate was 11% below.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Opinions on Alphabet's earnings</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe the first quarter could show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so the outcome discussion of future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-service stock in the internet group in 2023, with higher relative earnings stability due to spending flexibility, high margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's Stock Performance and Valuation</strong></p><p>At $105 a share, Alphabet is up more than 19% year-to-date at the time of writing, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>Shares are nearly 30% below their all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, shares rose 17.5%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to professional data from Benzinga, the stock has a forward P/E of 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","GOOG":"谷歌","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144371077","content_text":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）将于 4 月 25 日（周二）美股盘后发布其第一季度财报业绩。在 Alphabet 第一季度财报发布前，需要了解的五件事：华尔街分析师一致预计本季度每股收益为 1.08 美元，收入为 688.7 亿美元。预计收入将比 2022 年第四季度下降 9%，比 2022 年第一季度下降 17%。对销售额的估计表明，与 2022 年第四季度相比下降 10%，与 2022 年第一季度相比表现持平。在过去的四个季度中，该公司的收益和收入均未达到预期。在 2022 年第四季度，Alphabet 的盈利预测低于 11%。Alphabet 股价在 2022 年第四季度业绩不佳后下跌 2.75%，在 2022 年第三季度业绩不佳后下跌 9.1%。美国银行对 Alphabet 财报的看法美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。总体而言，美国银行预计每股收益为 1.07 美元，略低于华尔街预测的 1.08 美元。专家认为，第一季度可能会显示出 Alphabet 的成本有所改善。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中，无论在时间还是在影响方面，因此对未来计划和前景的结果讨论可能构成最重要的股票驱动因素。据美国银行称，到 2023 年，Alphabet 将成为互联网集团中更具防御性的自助股票，由于支出灵活性、高利润率以及通过回购支持股票的可能性，其相对盈利稳定性更高。Alphabet 的股票表现和估值Alphabet 的股价为每股 105 美元，截至撰写本文时，今年迄今上涨逾19%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数 7.7% 的涨幅。股价比 2022 年 2 月创下的历史高点 151 美元低了近 30%。2023 年第一季度，股价上涨 17.5%，创下 2021 年第二季度以来最强劲的季度表现。根据Benzinga 的专业数据，该股票的远期市盈率为 19.45 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944761133,"gmtCreate":1682162402123,"gmtModify":1682162405607,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944761133","repostId":"1144371077","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144371077","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682132507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144371077?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-22 11:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144371077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：G","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure. The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will release its first-quarter financial results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know ahead of Alphabet's Q1 earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>The consensus among Wall Street analysts is EPS of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from Q4 2022 and 17% from Q1 2022.</p><p></li><li>Estimates for sales indicate a 10% decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Over the last four quarters, the company has missed earnings and revenue estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Alphabet's earnings estimate was 11% below.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Opinions on Alphabet's earnings</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe the first quarter could show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so the outcome discussion of future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-service stock in the internet group in 2023, with higher relative earnings stability due to spending flexibility, high margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's Stock Performance and Valuation</strong></p><p>At $105 a share, Alphabet is up more than 19% year-to-date at the time of writing, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>Shares are nearly 30% below their all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, shares rose 17.5%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to professional data from Benzinga, the stock has a forward P/E of 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Preview | Is there still room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-22 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure. The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will release its first-quarter financial results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, April 25.</p><p><strong>Five things to know ahead of Alphabet's Q1 earnings report:</strong></p><p><ul><li>The consensus among Wall Street analysts is EPS of $1.08 on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from Q4 2022 and 17% from Q1 2022.</p><p></li><li>Estimates for sales indicate a 10% decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>Over the last four quarters, the company has missed earnings and revenue estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Alphabet's earnings estimate was 11% below.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor results in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 9.1% after poor results in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Opinions on Alphabet's earnings</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue from Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly below Wall Street's forecast of $1.08. Experts believe the first quarter could show an improvement in Alphabet's costs.</p><p>The main challenge facing the company is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so the outcome discussion of future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will become a more defensive self-service stock in the internet group in 2023, with higher relative earnings stability due to spending flexibility, high margins, and the possibility of backing the stock through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's Stock Performance and Valuation</strong></p><p>At $105 a share, Alphabet is up more than 19% year-to-date at the time of writing, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>Shares are nearly 30% below their all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, shares rose 17.5%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to professional data from Benzinga, the stock has a forward P/E of 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","GOOG":"谷歌","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144371077","content_text":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）将于 4 月 25 日（周二）美股盘后发布其第一季度财报业绩。在 Alphabet 第一季度财报发布前，需要了解的五件事：华尔街分析师一致预计本季度每股收益为 1.08 美元，收入为 688.7 亿美元。预计收入将比 2022 年第四季度下降 9%，比 2022 年第一季度下降 17%。对销售额的估计表明，与 2022 年第四季度相比下降 10%，与 2022 年第一季度相比表现持平。在过去的四个季度中，该公司的收益和收入均未达到预期。在 2022 年第四季度，Alphabet 的盈利预测低于 11%。Alphabet 股价在 2022 年第四季度业绩不佳后下跌 2.75%，在 2022 年第三季度业绩不佳后下跌 9.1%。美国银行对 Alphabet 财报的看法美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。总体而言，美国银行预计每股收益为 1.07 美元，略低于华尔街预测的 1.08 美元。专家认为，第一季度可能会显示出 Alphabet 的成本有所改善。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中，无论在时间还是在影响方面，因此对未来计划和前景的结果讨论可能构成最重要的股票驱动因素。据美国银行称，到 2023 年，Alphabet 将成为互联网集团中更具防御性的自助股票，由于支出灵活性、高利润率以及通过回购支持股票的可能性，其相对盈利稳定性更高。Alphabet 的股票表现和估值Alphabet 的股价为每股 105 美元，截至撰写本文时，今年迄今上涨逾19%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数 7.7% 的涨幅。股价比 2022 年 2 月创下的历史高点 151 美元低了近 30%。2023 年第一季度，股价上涨 17.5%，创下 2021 年第二季度以来最强劲的季度表现。根据Benzinga 的专业数据，该股票的远期市盈率为 19.45 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944415391,"gmtCreate":1682005221414,"gmtModify":1682005224604,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944415391","repostId":"2328194710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2328194710","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682004537,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2328194710?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-20 23:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A surge of $11.4 billion in a single quarter! Under the pressure of economic recession, U.S. junk bond growth returns to high point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2328194710","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着经济衰退缓慢逼近，企业债券正以2020年以来最快的速度被降为垃圾债。4月19日周三，巴克莱策略师 Dominique Toublan 等的最新研究显示，今年第一季度，共有114亿美元的债券被降级为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As a recession slowly approaches, corporate bonds are being reduced to junk bonds at the fastest pace since 2020.</p><p>On Wednesday, April 19, the latest research from Barclays strategist Dominique Toublan and others showed that,<strong>A total of $11.4 billion of bonds were downgraded to junk bonds in the first quarter of this year, which accounts for about 60% of bonds downgraded to junk in the whole of 2022.</strong>。 The bank estimates that bond trading volumes throughout the year are on track to reach their highest levels since 2020, when the outbreak triggered a massive wave of bond downgrades.</p><p>This reflects the pressure many businesses are facing as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. As the number of investors eligible to buy their bonds decreases, those whose ratings are downgraded to junk status will face additional financing expenses.</p><p>Barclays predicts that,<strong>As slowing economic growth puts additional pressure on borrowers, the pace of junk-rated bonds is set to accelerate in the second half of the year.</strong>It is expected that $60 billion to $80 billion in bonds will be downgraded to junk status this year, and these bonds are called \"fallen angels\".</p><p>Toublan said in an interview:</p><p>The downgrade from investment grade to junk, indicating a deterioration in the company's credit profile. The question is, is this just a company problem, or is it a more general phenomenon? But Barclays added,<strong>While more companies are being downgraded to junk status, more bonds are likely to be upgraded to investment grade</strong>。 The bank expects $60 billion to $70 billion to come from these \"rising stars\" this year, which will be the second-highest annual total on record. It is not until the second half of this year that the pace of rating upgrades may slow down.</p><p>Nissan contributed a considerable share of the bonds whose ratings were downgraded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating company downgraded it to speculative grade in March this year. Companies whose ratings were downgraded also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>And Axos Financial, Inc.</p><p>While trading volumes on these downgraded bonds are rising, the downgrades still appear to be relatively modest. Barclays said the bank's forecast of $60 billion to $80 billion rating downgrades accounted for about 2.2% of BBB-rated corporate bonds, compared with the average since 2000 of nearly 6.6%.</p><p>According to the analysis,<strong>The previous banking crisis is likely to drastically reduce bank lending activity. The total amount of loans on banks'books has fallen by about $95 billion since mid-March, according to the Federal Reserve. Credit conditions have generally tightened, which tends to drive more downgrades.</strong></p><p>Falling profits could erode profits for corporate borrowers and potentially hurt those of issuers that are more sensitive to economic changes, Fitch Ratings wrote in a note Monday. The agency predicts that the United States will begin to enter a recession by the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Fitch said:</p><p>Monetary tightening and slower economic growth will have a negative impact on demand, while easing inflation will reduce pricing power, leading to slower revenue growth for some U.S. companies and somewhat less ability to protect margins without cost cutting.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of $11.4 billion in a single quarter! Under the pressure of economic recession, U.S. junk bond growth returns to high point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of $11.4 billion in a single quarter! Under the pressure of economic recession, U.S. junk bond growth returns to high point\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-20 23:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As a recession slowly approaches, corporate bonds are being reduced to junk bonds at the fastest pace since 2020.</p><p>On Wednesday, April 19, the latest research from Barclays strategist Dominique Toublan and others showed that,<strong>A total of $11.4 billion of bonds were downgraded to junk bonds in the first quarter of this year, which accounts for about 60% of bonds downgraded to junk in the whole of 2022.</strong>。 The bank estimates that bond trading volumes throughout the year are on track to reach their highest levels since 2020, when the outbreak triggered a massive wave of bond downgrades.</p><p>This reflects the pressure many businesses are facing as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. As the number of investors eligible to buy their bonds decreases, those whose ratings are downgraded to junk status will face additional financing expenses.</p><p>Barclays predicts that,<strong>As slowing economic growth puts additional pressure on borrowers, the pace of junk-rated bonds is set to accelerate in the second half of the year.</strong>It is expected that $60 billion to $80 billion in bonds will be downgraded to junk status this year, and these bonds are called \"fallen angels\".</p><p>Toublan said in an interview:</p><p>The downgrade from investment grade to junk, indicating a deterioration in the company's credit profile. The question is, is this just a company problem, or is it a more general phenomenon? But Barclays added,<strong>While more companies are being downgraded to junk status, more bonds are likely to be upgraded to investment grade</strong>。 The bank expects $60 billion to $70 billion to come from these \"rising stars\" this year, which will be the second-highest annual total on record. It is not until the second half of this year that the pace of rating upgrades may slow down.</p><p>Nissan contributed a considerable share of the bonds whose ratings were downgraded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating company downgraded it to speculative grade in March this year. Companies whose ratings were downgraded also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>And Axos Financial, Inc.</p><p>While trading volumes on these downgraded bonds are rising, the downgrades still appear to be relatively modest. Barclays said the bank's forecast of $60 billion to $80 billion rating downgrades accounted for about 2.2% of BBB-rated corporate bonds, compared with the average since 2000 of nearly 6.6%.</p><p>According to the analysis,<strong>The previous banking crisis is likely to drastically reduce bank lending activity. The total amount of loans on banks'books has fallen by about $95 billion since mid-March, according to the Federal Reserve. Credit conditions have generally tightened, which tends to drive more downgrades.</strong></p><p>Falling profits could erode profits for corporate borrowers and potentially hurt those of issuers that are more sensitive to economic changes, Fitch Ratings wrote in a note Monday. The agency predicts that the United States will begin to enter a recession by the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Fitch said:</p><p>Monetary tightening and slower economic growth will have a negative impact on demand, while easing inflation will reduce pricing power, leading to slower revenue growth for some U.S. companies and somewhat less ability to protect margins without cost cutting.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687055\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e77c16b21cd06df0b4a3ec9f76087f1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687055","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2328194710","content_text":"随着经济衰退缓慢逼近，企业债券正以2020年以来最快的速度被降为垃圾债。4月19日周三，巴克莱策略师 Dominique Toublan 等的最新研究显示，今年第一季度，共有114亿美元的债券被降级为垃圾债券，这一数字约占2022年全年被降为垃圾级债券的60%。该行估计，今年全年的债券交易量有望达到自2020年以来的最高水平，当时疫情爆发引发了大规模的债券降级浪潮。这反映出，随着美联储开启数十年来最激进的加息周期，许多企业正面临着压力。由于有资格购买其债券的投资者数量减少，那些评级被下调至垃圾级的企业将面临额外的融资支出。巴克莱预计，随着经济增长放缓给借款人带来了额外的压力，垃圾级债券的增加速度将在今年下半年加快。预计今年将有600亿至800亿美元规模的债券将被降至垃圾级，这些债券被称为“堕落天使”。Toublan 在接受采访时表示：从投资级降至垃圾级，表明该公司的信用状况恶化。问题是，这只是一家公司的问题，还是一个更普遍的现象？但巴克莱补充称，尽管越来越多的企业被降至垃圾级，但可能也会有越来越多的债券被调高至投资级。该行预计，今年将有600亿至700亿美元来自这些“新星”，这将是有纪录以来第二高的年度总额。到今年下半年，评级上调的步伐才可能会放缓。在评级被下调的债券中，日产汽车贡献了相当一部分的份额。标普全球评级公司在今年3月将其下调至了投机级。评级被下调的企业还包括第一共和银行和Axos Financial公司。虽然有关这些被降级债券的交易量正在上升，但评级的下调似乎仍然是相对温和的。巴克莱称，该行预测的600亿至800亿美元的评级下调约占BBB级公司债券的2.2%，而2000年以来的平均水平接近6.6%。分析认为，此前的银行业危机可能会大幅削减银行的放贷活动。美联储的数据显示，自3月中旬以来，银行账面上的贷款总额已经减少了约950亿美元。信贷环境普遍趋紧，这往往会推动更多的评级下调。惠誉评级公司周一在一份报告中写道，利润下降可能会侵蚀企业借款人的利润，并可能损害对经济变化更为敏感的发行人的利润。该机构预计美国将在今年第三季度末开始步入经济衰退。惠誉表示：货币紧缩和经济增长放缓将对需求产生负面影响，而通胀缓解将降低定价能力，导致一些美国公司的收入增长放缓，在没有削减成本的情况下保护利润率的能力有所减弱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944594129,"gmtCreate":1681907074261,"gmtModify":1681907076077,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944594129","repostId":"2328783312","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944695446,"gmtCreate":1681818460686,"gmtModify":1681818464507,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944695446","repostId":"1125440795","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125440795","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681817436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125440795?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-18 19:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue was $15.1 billion, slightly exceeding expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125440795","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Q1 净利润（亿美元）： 17，预期：15.36，前值：17.33。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lockheed Martin's revenue in the first quarter of 2023 (US $100 million): 151, expected: 150.28, previous value: 149.64.</p><p>Net profit in the first quarter (US $100 million): 17, expected: 15.36, previous value: 17.33.</p><p>First quarter EPS: $6.61, expected: $6.057, previous value: $6.44.</p><p>Lockheed Martin's pre-market stock price rose rapidly in the short term, turning from falling to rising.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcce1a714321ac406ff7f02dc397b6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"764\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue was $15.1 billion, slightly exceeding expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue was $15.1 billion, slightly exceeding expectations\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-18 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lockheed Martin's revenue in the first quarter of 2023 (US $100 million): 151, expected: 150.28, previous value: 149.64.</p><p>Net profit in the first quarter (US $100 million): 17, expected: 15.36, previous value: 17.33.</p><p>First quarter EPS: $6.61, expected: $6.057, previous value: $6.44.</p><p>Lockheed Martin's pre-market stock price rose rapidly in the short term, turning from falling to rising.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcce1a714321ac406ff7f02dc397b6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"764\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c278da3656f121b0bf93d422677e9201","relate_stocks":{"LMT":"洛克希德马丁"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125440795","content_text":"洛克希德马丁2023年一季度营收（亿美元）： 151，预期：150.28，前值：149.64。一季度净利润（亿美元）： 17，预期：15.36，前值：17.33。一季度EPS： $6.61，预期：$6.057，前值：$6.44。洛克希德马丁盘前股价短线快速拉升，由跌转涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944348527,"gmtCreate":1681724148569,"gmtModify":1681724152054,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944348527","repostId":"1135442671","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135442671","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681206474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135442671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-11 17:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial report preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend last, and will it \"backlash\" itself?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135442671","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉频繁的降价行动令分析人士更加关注其第一季度的毛利率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The financial report for the first quarter of 2023 ending March 31 will be released after the market closes on April 19, Eastern Time (April 20, Beijing time).</p><p>In the past 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1.31 million vehicles worldwide, an increase of 40% compared to 2021; The production volume was 1.37 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47%, but none of them reached the annual growth target of 50%.</p><p><strong>The market currently generally expects the company to have revenue of US $23.46 billion in the first quarter, adjusted profit of US $3.057 billion, and earnings per share of US $0.86.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A stronger-than-expected result would indicate Tesla's \"cost advantage position\" and potential input cost decline, but if Q1 results fall in line or below expectations, it would imply overcapacity or aging products, which would put its stock price at risk. More importantly, frequent price cuts have led analysts to pay more attention to the electric car maker's gross profit margin in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f14e3cd0b9cf7c3134cc1be1537b19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>Deliveries in the first quarter: Is the price reduction effect sustainable?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla delivered worldwide in Q1 2023<strong>More than 422,000 vehicles broke the delivery record in a single quarter.</strong></p><p>The report shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla produced 440,808 electric vehicles worldwide and delivered 422,875 units. Among them, Model S and Model X produced 19,437 units and delivered 10,695 units; Production of Model 3 and Model Y was 421,371 units, and deliveries were 412,180 units.</p><p>Compared with the same period last year, Tesla's total production in the first quarter increased by 44% year-on-year, and deliveries increased by 36% year-on-year, which was 6.69 times the delivery volume in the same period in 2019.</p><p>The delivery report shows that Tesla will continue to transition to \"more balanced mass production for different regional markets\", including Model S/X models that are being shipped to EMEA (Europe/Middle East/Africa) and Asia-Pacific.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206ca2a9f22472a9e476b926b9c14c33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk's annual sales target of 1.8-2 million vehicles was not bad in the first quarter. But what cannot be ignored is that in the Chinese market, the core position of its production and sales, this year's automobile market is facing more intense competition, and Tesla also needs to respond more flexibly.</p><p>According to industry analysts,<strong>The growth of Tesla's deliveries is closely related to the price cuts at the beginning of this year, and the direct reason for the price cuts is to stimulate demand.</strong>In January this year, Tesla lowered the prices of models on sale in both China and the global market, with an overall drop of 9%.</p><p>On April 6, local time, Tesla once again lowered the prices of its models on sale in the United States, lowering the prices of all models by 2% to 6%. This is the automaker's fifth price cut since January, with the most significant decline in high-end models. The price cut of the more popular Model Y also reached 4% to $52,990.</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also announced that it will adjust the prices of Model 3 and Model Y in Hong Kong on April 15. The largest price adjustment reduction is Model 3 Performance, with a range of as much as 14.7%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla previously launched a price war in the United States, which analysts saw as a positive signal of the company's efforts to boost sales.</p><p>According to Tesla's goal, it will increase production by more than 10 times to 20 million vehicles/year by 2030. However, the longest sales cycle of Tesla's Model 3/Y and other models currently on sale is 6-7 years, and there has been no mid-term facelift. As market competition intensifies, Tesla's products are facing more severe challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ed93f64aaf0be3e65df77daffd77f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p><strong>Positive factors: new low-end models are on the horizon</strong></p><p>Recently, there has been market news that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity map for its new low-priced models. \"This low-priced model is a small Model Y.\" The source said,<strong>\"Tesla is building an annual production capacity plan of up to 4 million vehicles for it.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is understood that this is an early production capacity strategy, and Tesla is passing on to the industrial chain:<strong>The production capacity of 4 million vehicles will be distributed in factories around the world, of which the super factory in North America will undertake 2 million vehicles, and the Berlin factory in Germany and the Lingang factory in Shanghai will undertake 1 million vehicles respectively. Among the North American factories, the Monterrey factory in Mexico will be the main production capacity of this new model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's Investor Day, Tesla revealed the Monterrey factory in Mexico. Since then, some media reported that the factory covers an area of nearly 4,200 acres, which is 68% more than the 2,500 acres of the Texas factory. It is also about 20 times the area of the Shanghai factory.</p><p>If a Tesla car sells for 150,000 yuan, it may obviously set off another sales frenzy.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d883a08243beba49992da0458236253e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><strong>Unfavorable factors: U.S. electric vehicle tax rebate policy changes again</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service announced new electric vehicle tax credit details. Various car companies found that unless a workaround is found, the result is likely to be:<strong>From April 18, when the new system comes into effect, the tax credits enjoyed by electric vehicles will be significantly reduced.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ford said its Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit will be eligible for a $3,750 electric vehicle tax credit starting April 18, down from the current $7,500, after losing half of the tax credits because they did not meet domestic battery purchase requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From April 18, out of the $7,500 tax credit<strong>Half of that will depend on whether the battery components are mainly made in North America</strong>，<strong>The other half depends on whether the battery minerals are mainly sourced from the United States' free trade partners</strong>。 In the next five years, if you want to qualify for tax credits, the proportion of the above-mentioned components and minerals in automobile batteries will be further increased from 50% and 40% respectively.</p><p><strong>Big bank rating</strong></p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities: Outperform Rating, $225 Price Target</strong></p><p>Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, a well-known Tesla bull analyst, maintained an \"outperform\" rating and a target price of $225 on Tesla stock. He said the Model Y/3 price cuts announced in early 2023 have \"paid handsome dividends\" for Tesla, and demand appears to be stable despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Whether Tesla's automotive gross profit margin can exceed 20% remains a key threshold in the next few quarters.</p><p><strong>Baird: Overweight Rating, $252 Price Target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird said it believes Tesla will be able to maintain industry-leading operating margins and is best positioned among its automotive peers to weather economic headwinds. Maintain an Overweight rating and $252 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Bernstein: Underperform Rating, $150 Price Target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernstein said Tesla's price cuts were not surprising, but the timing and details were \"a bit surprising\" and may continue to cut prices in other markets around the world. The agency said the price cuts reflected Tesla's need to stimulate market demand. Maintain an underperform rating and a $150 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research: Peer Performance Rating</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache said that while the U.S. price cuts may raise questions about demand for cars, Tesla \"will significantly reduce costs in the future.\" The company said investors may have underestimated the new investment in Tesla Energy. Maintaining a Peer Perform rating on Tesla stock, investors should not be surprised if the price cut triggers a negative short-term reaction to the stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial report preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend last, and will it \"backlash\" itself?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial report preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend last, and will it \"backlash\" itself?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-11 17:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The financial report for the first quarter of 2023 ending March 31 will be released after the market closes on April 19, Eastern Time (April 20, Beijing time).</p><p>In the past 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1.31 million vehicles worldwide, an increase of 40% compared to 2021; The production volume was 1.37 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47%, but none of them reached the annual growth target of 50%.</p><p><strong>The market currently generally expects the company to have revenue of US $23.46 billion in the first quarter, adjusted profit of US $3.057 billion, and earnings per share of US $0.86.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A stronger-than-expected result would indicate Tesla's \"cost advantage position\" and potential input cost decline, but if Q1 results fall in line or below expectations, it would imply overcapacity or aging products, which would put its stock price at risk. More importantly, frequent price cuts have led analysts to pay more attention to the electric car maker's gross profit margin in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f14e3cd0b9cf7c3134cc1be1537b19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>Deliveries in the first quarter: Is the price reduction effect sustainable?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla delivered worldwide in Q1 2023<strong>More than 422,000 vehicles broke the delivery record in a single quarter.</strong></p><p>The report shows that in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla produced 440,808 electric vehicles worldwide and delivered 422,875 units. Among them, Model S and Model X produced 19,437 units and delivered 10,695 units; Production of Model 3 and Model Y was 421,371 units, and deliveries were 412,180 units.</p><p>Compared with the same period last year, Tesla's total production in the first quarter increased by 44% year-on-year, and deliveries increased by 36% year-on-year, which was 6.69 times the delivery volume in the same period in 2019.</p><p>The delivery report shows that Tesla will continue to transition to \"more balanced mass production for different regional markets\", including Model S/X models that are being shipped to EMEA (Europe/Middle East/Africa) and Asia-Pacific.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206ca2a9f22472a9e476b926b9c14c33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk's annual sales target of 1.8-2 million vehicles was not bad in the first quarter. But what cannot be ignored is that in the Chinese market, the core position of its production and sales, this year's automobile market is facing more intense competition, and Tesla also needs to respond more flexibly.</p><p>According to industry analysts,<strong>The growth of Tesla's deliveries is closely related to the price cuts at the beginning of this year, and the direct reason for the price cuts is to stimulate demand.</strong>In January this year, Tesla lowered the prices of models on sale in both China and the global market, with an overall drop of 9%.</p><p>On April 6, local time, Tesla once again lowered the prices of its models on sale in the United States, lowering the prices of all models by 2% to 6%. This is the automaker's fifth price cut since January, with the most significant decline in high-end models. The price cut of the more popular Model Y also reached 4% to $52,990.</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also announced that it will adjust the prices of Model 3 and Model Y in Hong Kong on April 15. The largest price adjustment reduction is Model 3 Performance, with a range of as much as 14.7%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla previously launched a price war in the United States, which analysts saw as a positive signal of the company's efforts to boost sales.</p><p>According to Tesla's goal, it will increase production by more than 10 times to 20 million vehicles/year by 2030. However, the longest sales cycle of Tesla's Model 3/Y and other models currently on sale is 6-7 years, and there has been no mid-term facelift. As market competition intensifies, Tesla's products are facing more severe challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ed93f64aaf0be3e65df77daffd77f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p><strong>Positive factors: new low-end models are on the horizon</strong></p><p>Recently, there has been market news that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity map for its new low-priced models. \"This low-priced model is a small Model Y.\" The source said,<strong>\"Tesla is building an annual production capacity plan of up to 4 million vehicles for it.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is understood that this is an early production capacity strategy, and Tesla is passing on to the industrial chain:<strong>The production capacity of 4 million vehicles will be distributed in factories around the world, of which the super factory in North America will undertake 2 million vehicles, and the Berlin factory in Germany and the Lingang factory in Shanghai will undertake 1 million vehicles respectively. Among the North American factories, the Monterrey factory in Mexico will be the main production capacity of this new model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's Investor Day, Tesla revealed the Monterrey factory in Mexico. Since then, some media reported that the factory covers an area of nearly 4,200 acres, which is 68% more than the 2,500 acres of the Texas factory. It is also about 20 times the area of the Shanghai factory.</p><p>If a Tesla car sells for 150,000 yuan, it may obviously set off another sales frenzy.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d883a08243beba49992da0458236253e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><strong>Unfavorable factors: U.S. electric vehicle tax rebate policy changes again</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service announced new electric vehicle tax credit details. Various car companies found that unless a workaround is found, the result is likely to be:<strong>From April 18, when the new system comes into effect, the tax credits enjoyed by electric vehicles will be significantly reduced.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ford said its Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit will be eligible for a $3,750 electric vehicle tax credit starting April 18, down from the current $7,500, after losing half of the tax credits because they did not meet domestic battery purchase requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From April 18, out of the $7,500 tax credit<strong>Half of that will depend on whether the battery components are mainly made in North America</strong>，<strong>The other half depends on whether the battery minerals are mainly sourced from the United States' free trade partners</strong>。 In the next five years, if you want to qualify for tax credits, the proportion of the above-mentioned components and minerals in automobile batteries will be further increased from 50% and 40% respectively.</p><p><strong>Big bank rating</strong></p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities: Outperform Rating, $225 Price Target</strong></p><p>Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, a well-known Tesla bull analyst, maintained an \"outperform\" rating and a target price of $225 on Tesla stock. He said the Model Y/3 price cuts announced in early 2023 have \"paid handsome dividends\" for Tesla, and demand appears to be stable despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Whether Tesla's automotive gross profit margin can exceed 20% remains a key threshold in the next few quarters.</p><p><strong>Baird: Overweight Rating, $252 Price Target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird said it believes Tesla will be able to maintain industry-leading operating margins and is best positioned among its automotive peers to weather economic headwinds. Maintain an Overweight rating and $252 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Bernstein: Underperform Rating, $150 Price Target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernstein said Tesla's price cuts were not surprising, but the timing and details were \"a bit surprising\" and may continue to cut prices in other markets around the world. The agency said the price cuts reflected Tesla's need to stimulate market demand. Maintain an underperform rating and a $150 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research: Peer Performance Rating</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache said that while the U.S. price cuts may raise questions about demand for cars, Tesla \"will significantly reduce costs in the future.\" The company said investors may have underestimated the new investment in Tesla Energy. Maintaining a Peer Perform rating on Tesla stock, investors should not be surprised if the price cut triggers a negative short-term reaction to the stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135442671","content_text":"特斯拉将于美国东部时间4月19日收盘后（北京时间4月20日）发布截至3月31日的2023年第一季度财报。在过去的2022年，特斯拉全球共计交付汽车131万辆，相比2021年增长40%；生产量为137万辆，同比增长47%，但均未达到50%的年增长量目标。市场目前普遍预计该公司一季度的营收为234.6亿美元，调整后利润为30.57亿美元，每股收益为0.86美元。强于预期的结果将表明特斯拉的“成本优势地位”和潜在的投入成本下降，但如果第一季度的结果与预期持平或低于预期，则意味着产能过剩或产品老化，这将使其股价面临风险。尤其重要的是，频繁的降价行动令分析人士更加关注这家电动汽车制造商一季度的毛利率情况。一季度交付量：降价效应可持续吗？特斯拉2023年第一季度在全球交付超过42.2万辆汽车，打破了单季度的交付纪录。报告显示，2023年第一季度，特斯拉在全球生产电动车440808台，交付422875台。其中，Model S和Model X生产19437台，交付10695台；Model 3和Model Y的产量为421371台，交付量为412180台。与去年同期相比，特斯拉第一季度总产量同比增长44%，交付量同比增长36%，是2019年同期交付量的6.69倍。交付报告中显示，特斯拉将继续向“针对不同区域市场更加均衡的批量生产”过渡，其中包括正在运往EMEA地区（欧洲/中东/非洲)以及亚太地区的Model S/X车型。马斯克定下的全年180-200万辆的销量目标，第一季度完成得不差。但不容忽视的是，在其产销的核心阵地——中国市场，今年的汽车市场正迎来更为激烈的竞争，特斯拉也需要更灵活地应对。业内分析认为，特斯拉交付量增长与今年年初的降价活动密切相关，而降价的直接原因则是为了刺激需求。今年1月，特斯拉在中国和全球市场均调低了在售车型价格，整体降幅达到9%。当地时间4月6日，特斯拉再次下调了其美国在售车型的售价，将所有车型的价格下调了2%至6%，这是该汽车制造商自1月份以来的第五次降价，其中高端车型的降幅最为显著。较受欢迎的Model Y降价幅度也达到了4%，降至52990美元。与此同时，特斯拉还宣布将于4月15日调整香港地区Model 3和Model Y的售价，价格调整减幅最大的是Model 3 Performance，幅度多达14.7%。此前特斯拉发起在美国的价格战，分析师们都将其视为该公司努力提振销量的积极信号。根据特斯拉的目标，到2030年将产量提高10倍以上，达到2000万辆/年。不过，目前特斯拉在售的Model 3/Y等车型最长销售周期达6-7年，且一直没有进行中期改款。随着市场竞争的加剧，特斯拉的产品面临着更为严峻的挑战。积极因素：新低级车型呼之欲出最近传出市场消息，特斯拉正在为其新的低价车型，规划一副宏大的产能版图。“这款低价车型是一个小号Model Y。”消息人士称，“特斯拉正在为其构建一个高达400万辆的年产能计划。”据了解这是一项早期的产能策略，特斯拉正在向产业链传递：400万辆产能会分布在全球工厂，其中，北美的超级工厂将承担200万辆，德国柏林工厂和上海临港工厂分别承担100万辆。而在北美工厂当中，墨西哥的蒙特雷工厂会是这款新车型的产能主力。在今年投资者日上，特斯拉揭秘了墨西哥的蒙特雷工厂，此后，有媒体报道称，该工厂占地近4200英亩，这比德克萨斯州工厂的2500英亩多出68%，也是上海工厂面积的约20倍。如果一款特斯拉汽车卖到15万元，显然可能再次掀起销量狂潮。不利因素：美国电动车退税政策再生变上周五，美国财政部和国税局公布了新的电动汽车税收抵免细则，各家车企发现，除非找到变通方法，否则结果很可能是：从4月18日新制度生效起，电动汽车享受的税收抵免将大幅减少。福特公司表示，从4月18日开始，其 Mustang Mach-E 和 E-Transit 将有资格获得3750美元的电动汽车税收抵免，低于目前的 7500 美元，因为不符合国内电池采购要求而损失了一半的税收抵免。从4月18日起，7500美元的税收抵免额中有一半将取决于电池组件是否主要由北美制造，另一半取决于电池矿物是否主要来源于美国的自自由贸易伙伴。未来五年，想要符合税收抵免资格，汽车电池中上述组件及矿物占比将分别从50%和40%进一步提高。大行评级韦德布什证券：跑赢大盘评级，目标价225美元知名特斯拉多头分析师、韦德布什证券公司的丹·艾夫斯维持对特斯拉股票的“跑赢大盘”评级和225美元的目标价。他表示，2023年初宣布的Model Y/3降价为特斯拉“带来了丰厚的红利”，尽管宏观经济不确定，但需求似乎很稳定。未来几个季度，特斯拉的汽车毛利率能否超过20%仍是关键门槛。贝尔德：增持评级，目标价252美元贝尔德表示，相信特斯拉将能够保持行业领先的营业利润率，并且在汽车同行中处于最佳位置以抵御经济逆风。维持对特斯拉股票的增持评级和252美元的目标价。伯恩斯坦：表现不佳评级，150美元目标价伯恩斯坦表示，特斯拉降价并不令人意外，但时间和细节“有点令人惊讶”，可能在全球其它市场继续降价。该机构表示，降价反映了特斯拉刺激市场需求的需要。维持特斯拉股票的表现不佳评级和150美元的目标价。Wolfe Research：同业表现评级Wolfe Research 分析师 Rod Lache 表示，虽然美国的降价可能会引发对汽车需求的质疑，但特斯拉“未来会大幅降低成本”。该公司表示，投资者可能低估了对特斯拉能源的新投资。保持对特斯拉股票的同业表现评级，如果降价引发股价负面短期反应，投资者不应感到惊讶。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944993571,"gmtCreate":1681658934194,"gmtModify":1681658937878,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944993571","repostId":"1102189876","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102189876","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1681641413,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102189876?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-16 18:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Don't miss this bull market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102189876","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"经济似乎还略显冷意，但股市已经迫不及待要热起来。经过一个多月的调整，上周五上证指数再一次逼近3月7日的高位，并显示要突破的态势，而A股成交额更是连续9个交易日超越1万亿。无独有偶，即使是深受美国经济衰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The economy still seems a little chilly, but the stock market can't wait to heat up.</p><p>After more than a month's adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index once again approached the high of March 7th last Friday, showing a breakthrough trend, and the turnover of A shares exceeded 1 trillion for nine consecutive trading days.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2ddeaaf9c0cf410a1d4bebe3f835e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Coincidentally, even the S&P index, which is deeply affected by the U.S. economic recession, has quietly approached its February 2nd high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182ff406e03a8e27b8016acc2b1653c4\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>The stock market has the most sensitive sense of smell, and capital will not deceive people. The fact that it continues to attack upward has already explained the problem.</p><p>That's our simple view of the market in 2023:<strong>Don't miss this bull run.</strong></p><p><strong>Macroscopic surface</strong></p><p>Every bull market occurs, with a super trough as the premise.</p><p>What a trough 2022 is, every investor can feel it. With repeated epidemics, economic downturn, constant peripheral wars, and crazy rate hike, the capital market is really miserable.</p><p>But everything will come to an end, and several big macro risks have basically reversed or are about to reverse. The first is the Russia-Ukraine war, the capital market has long been blunted, and the second is that the epidemic has become irrelevant. The only thing that is bad now is the global rate hike, especially the official end of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, the end of this is clearly visible, only the official announcement of the May meeting is missing.</p><p>There are two basic factors affecting the stock market, one is<strong>Economic fundamentals,</strong>One is<strong>Liquidity.</strong></p><p><strong>Domestic economic fundamentals, recovery is a foregone conclusion,</strong>On the surface, the domestic macroeconomic data doesn't seem to be too exciting, but signs of improvement are showing step by step, especially at the consumption level. \"May Day\" is approaching, and the reservation data of tourist air tickets and hotels strengthen the logic of consumption recovery. Now the market is waiting for the macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2023 to be released two days later. Considering that there was a round of national infections after the epidemic was released at the beginning of the year, the data may not be very strong, but it is basically foreseeable. This should be regarded as the bottom of this year.</p><p><strong>Externally, there is a high probability that the U.S. economic recession will occur.</strong>It will have a negative effect on China's exports. Because as China's third largest trading partner, under such difficult circumstances in 2022, China's exports to the United States are still as high as US $536.8 billion. However, China itself is also expanding its ties with other economies around the world, trying to hedge the negative influence of the United States. In the long run, even if the U.S. recession is scheduled, according to the forecast of Fed officials, the impact will mainly be this year, and it will recover in the next two years. Therefore, it will basically be fine to survive this year.</p><p>As for China's economic fundamentals, there will indeed be some disturbances in the short term, but there is really no reason to be pessimistic in the medium and long term, and it is impossible to drop to last year's low. Even if some deep-seated problems, such as the game between big powers and technological innovation, will not be solved immediately, fortunately, these problems will not worsen again, and the country is trying to break through step by step.</p><p><strong>In terms of liquidity, China's CPI remained at a low level, only 0.7% in March, which seems to indicate that the economy still needs a stronger recovery, but on the other hand, it adds more possibilities to stimulate the economy and continue to loosen money.</strong>In fact, the monetary level has seen obvious easing, especially the social financing and M2 data released not long ago, but it takes time to transmit from the monetary level to the economy. In addition, the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end step by step, which also provides more room for our monetary policy to display.</p><p>The macro economy is in the recovery channel, the general direction of liquidity is loose, and the stock market is bullish, which has the most basic support.</p><p><strong>Microscopic plane</strong></p><p>At the micro level, it is mainly the profit of enterprises, which coincides with the collective disclosure of the quarterly report of listed companies.</p><p>As of today, more than 200 A-share companies have disclosed their first-quarter performance forecasts. Among them, consumer stocks Langzi and Yanjing Beer have grown very strongly. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Langzi has increased by 377-566 times year-on-year, and Yanjing Beer has increased by 71-75 times year-on-year. Although it seems extreme, it also represents the strong rebound of consumer stocks from being suppressed by the epidemic last year to the release of the epidemic this year. And<strong>Technology stocks represented by semiconductors also showed a strong growth trend.</strong>A typical example is North Huachuang, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, whose net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 1.71--2 times year-on-year.</p><p>In the article at the beginning of the year, we mentioned investment opportunities in semiconductors many times, but at that time, it was mainly based on the fact that the inventory cycle of semiconductors bottomed out in the first half of this year and entered an upward channel in the second half of this year, speculating on the logic of cycle reversal. The subsequent chatGPT craze has accelerated the cycle reversal of semiconductors. More importantly, the popularity of chatGPT also marks that a new round of technological revolution led by AI has entered the fast lane, which can be compared to mechanization, electrification and informatization. Moreover, the technological revolution larger than them has brought new growth space to the technology industry including semiconductors, and the prelude to a new blue ocean has slowly unfolded.</p><p>This is also the reason why we keep repeating the main line of investment this year, and the digital economy must be the biggest one.</p><p>In the past, China basically followed others in science and technology, but this time, China is the most promising leader, because the digital economy has been established as an industry that the country focuses on developing and supporting. More importantly, China's strength in the digital economy has been greatly improved. Even though there is still a gap with the United States in some key technical fields, compared with most countries in the world, its advantages are still obvious.</p><p>Although there are many companies with rubbing concepts in A-shares, on the whole, in this technological revolution, there is a high probability that there will be corresponding real bull stocks in China, which undoubtedly provides a greater possibility for the stock market to go bull. At least from the perspective of funds, this technological revolution with broad growth prospects and expected returns can easily attract incremental funds into the stock market.</p><p>As investors, you need to pay more attention to this quarterly report, because it will not only confirm the recovery of the domestic economy, but also become an important basis for predicting the next economy and the performance of listed companies, and it will also be evidence to verify the entry of incremental funds into the stock market. Although it has not yet been fully announced, it is not advisable to draw premature conclusions, but given that there is no epidemic disturbance this year, at least it is certain that overall compared with the same period last year, it will only be better than worse.</p><p>And if the final result is indeed like this, it is only a matter of time before the Shanghai Stock Exchange breaks through the previous month's high.</p><p><strong>There is no suspense in the bullish market outlook</strong></p><p>There is a famous saying in the investment world:<strong>The future is more important than the past.</strong></p><p>It means that the stock market is rising or falling, and the most important thing is expectation.</p><p>In the past year on review, there is one thing that the author has experienced the most deeply. It happened in October last year. U.S. stocks fell to the low point of the year, and A-share Hong Kong stocks also bottomed out that month.</p><p>If you look at it from a simple linear thinking, the federal interest rate in the United States was not very high at that time, and the economy was still very strong, but why did it fall to a low level early? However, the pressure of the domestic epidemic situation and the economic pressure are so great that there was even a crisis of confidence in foreign capital. The rapid decline is understandable, but why did it rebound strongly within a few days? Shouldn't it continue to fall?</p><p><strong>In fact, the stock market has another characteristic, that is, it responds to the real economy in advance. This reaction usually takes half a year, and the process will be affected by other factors, which can be accelerated or slowed down.</strong></p><p>The bottom of the Sino-US stock markets in October last year was affected by this law, and now it has been verified step by step. First of all, the rate hike behavior of the United States. If it ends as scheduled in May this year, it will be exactly half a year from October last year; Secondly, China. That rapid decline did play a role in bottoming out in advance. Of course, the release of the epidemic in November was the most important factor in the rebound of the stock market. If the lockdown continues, the rebound will not come so soon.</p><p>But no matter what, if you want the stock market, whether it is A-shares, Hong Kong stocks or U.S. stocks, to return to the bottom of last year, the possibility is not high. Not to mention the domestic economy recovering and loose liquidity, even if U.S. stocks enter the \"profit-killing\" stage, unless the performance of listed companies collapses on a large scale, it is difficult to happen. When bank stocks thundered in March, it triggered a round of panic, but so far, there has been no expected collapse. Instead, the performance of big banks like JPMorgan Chase has increased significantly. In terms of indexes, the most injured Dow Jones has a volatility of around 10%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are far below 10%, and all three major indexes have fully recovered their losses in March and rose a lot.</p><p>It can be said that the biggest macro risk now is only the economic recession in the United States. If the stock market reflects the future characteristics in advance, the current trading will be half a year later. In other words, the stock market is pricing in a recession half a year from now. Of course, whether it is fully priced remains to be announced by other economic, listed company data, and follow-up policies. If these data fall beyond expectations, the stock market will still follow suit. If it meets expectations, the stock market can be flat, but if it improves beyond expectations, A rebound will happen at any time.</p><p>If we use the two factors mentioned above-economic fundamentals and liquidity, the liquidity crunch of U.S. stocks is basically priced by the market, and the only difference is to wait for the economy to bottom out. China's situation is even better, because our economic fundamentals have bottomed out and are in the recovery stage.</p><p><strong>epilogue</strong></p><p>If last year was the collapse moment of the global capital market, then this year's upward resonance of the global capital market should be the most anticipated and highly likely thing.</p><p>Looking at it now, the signs of a bullish market outlook may not be obvious, because except for the AI sector, other sectors are still relatively low-key, requiring some catalytic factors and taking some time. But just as the wind starts at the end of Qingping and the waves become between slight waves, the stock market will not directly tell you that the bull market is coming, but since the expectations for the future are good and the valuation is at a low level, it is a good thing to keep a low profile. This is equivalent to giving investors the opportunity to get on the bus. If it has gone wild, there is no chance.</p><p>Chinese people often say that it is extremely prosperous, and the same is true in the stock market. If one sentence is enough for the investment strategy of this year's stock market, it is:</p><p><strong>Don't miss this bull run!</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't miss this bull market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't miss this bull market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-16 18:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The economy still seems a little chilly, but the stock market can't wait to heat up.</p><p>After more than a month's adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index once again approached the high of March 7th last Friday, showing a breakthrough trend, and the turnover of A shares exceeded 1 trillion for nine consecutive trading days.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2ddeaaf9c0cf410a1d4bebe3f835e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Coincidentally, even the S&P index, which is deeply affected by the U.S. economic recession, has quietly approached its February 2nd high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182ff406e03a8e27b8016acc2b1653c4\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>The stock market has the most sensitive sense of smell, and capital will not deceive people. The fact that it continues to attack upward has already explained the problem.</p><p>That's our simple view of the market in 2023:<strong>Don't miss this bull run.</strong></p><p><strong>Macroscopic surface</strong></p><p>Every bull market occurs, with a super trough as the premise.</p><p>What a trough 2022 is, every investor can feel it. With repeated epidemics, economic downturn, constant peripheral wars, and crazy rate hike, the capital market is really miserable.</p><p>But everything will come to an end, and several big macro risks have basically reversed or are about to reverse. The first is the Russia-Ukraine war, the capital market has long been blunted, and the second is that the epidemic has become irrelevant. The only thing that is bad now is the global rate hike, especially the official end of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, the end of this is clearly visible, only the official announcement of the May meeting is missing.</p><p>There are two basic factors affecting the stock market, one is<strong>Economic fundamentals,</strong>One is<strong>Liquidity.</strong></p><p><strong>Domestic economic fundamentals, recovery is a foregone conclusion,</strong>On the surface, the domestic macroeconomic data doesn't seem to be too exciting, but signs of improvement are showing step by step, especially at the consumption level. \"May Day\" is approaching, and the reservation data of tourist air tickets and hotels strengthen the logic of consumption recovery. Now the market is waiting for the macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2023 to be released two days later. Considering that there was a round of national infections after the epidemic was released at the beginning of the year, the data may not be very strong, but it is basically foreseeable. This should be regarded as the bottom of this year.</p><p><strong>Externally, there is a high probability that the U.S. economic recession will occur.</strong>It will have a negative effect on China's exports. Because as China's third largest trading partner, under such difficult circumstances in 2022, China's exports to the United States are still as high as US $536.8 billion. However, China itself is also expanding its ties with other economies around the world, trying to hedge the negative influence of the United States. In the long run, even if the U.S. recession is scheduled, according to the forecast of Fed officials, the impact will mainly be this year, and it will recover in the next two years. Therefore, it will basically be fine to survive this year.</p><p>As for China's economic fundamentals, there will indeed be some disturbances in the short term, but there is really no reason to be pessimistic in the medium and long term, and it is impossible to drop to last year's low. Even if some deep-seated problems, such as the game between big powers and technological innovation, will not be solved immediately, fortunately, these problems will not worsen again, and the country is trying to break through step by step.</p><p><strong>In terms of liquidity, China's CPI remained at a low level, only 0.7% in March, which seems to indicate that the economy still needs a stronger recovery, but on the other hand, it adds more possibilities to stimulate the economy and continue to loosen money.</strong>In fact, the monetary level has seen obvious easing, especially the social financing and M2 data released not long ago, but it takes time to transmit from the monetary level to the economy. In addition, the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end step by step, which also provides more room for our monetary policy to display.</p><p>The macro economy is in the recovery channel, the general direction of liquidity is loose, and the stock market is bullish, which has the most basic support.</p><p><strong>Microscopic plane</strong></p><p>At the micro level, it is mainly the profit of enterprises, which coincides with the collective disclosure of the quarterly report of listed companies.</p><p>As of today, more than 200 A-share companies have disclosed their first-quarter performance forecasts. Among them, consumer stocks Langzi and Yanjing Beer have grown very strongly. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Langzi has increased by 377-566 times year-on-year, and Yanjing Beer has increased by 71-75 times year-on-year. Although it seems extreme, it also represents the strong rebound of consumer stocks from being suppressed by the epidemic last year to the release of the epidemic this year. And<strong>Technology stocks represented by semiconductors also showed a strong growth trend.</strong>A typical example is North Huachuang, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, whose net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 1.71--2 times year-on-year.</p><p>In the article at the beginning of the year, we mentioned investment opportunities in semiconductors many times, but at that time, it was mainly based on the fact that the inventory cycle of semiconductors bottomed out in the first half of this year and entered an upward channel in the second half of this year, speculating on the logic of cycle reversal. The subsequent chatGPT craze has accelerated the cycle reversal of semiconductors. More importantly, the popularity of chatGPT also marks that a new round of technological revolution led by AI has entered the fast lane, which can be compared to mechanization, electrification and informatization. Moreover, the technological revolution larger than them has brought new growth space to the technology industry including semiconductors, and the prelude to a new blue ocean has slowly unfolded.</p><p>This is also the reason why we keep repeating the main line of investment this year, and the digital economy must be the biggest one.</p><p>In the past, China basically followed others in science and technology, but this time, China is the most promising leader, because the digital economy has been established as an industry that the country focuses on developing and supporting. More importantly, China's strength in the digital economy has been greatly improved. Even though there is still a gap with the United States in some key technical fields, compared with most countries in the world, its advantages are still obvious.</p><p>Although there are many companies with rubbing concepts in A-shares, on the whole, in this technological revolution, there is a high probability that there will be corresponding real bull stocks in China, which undoubtedly provides a greater possibility for the stock market to go bull. At least from the perspective of funds, this technological revolution with broad growth prospects and expected returns can easily attract incremental funds into the stock market.</p><p>As investors, you need to pay more attention to this quarterly report, because it will not only confirm the recovery of the domestic economy, but also become an important basis for predicting the next economy and the performance of listed companies, and it will also be evidence to verify the entry of incremental funds into the stock market. Although it has not yet been fully announced, it is not advisable to draw premature conclusions, but given that there is no epidemic disturbance this year, at least it is certain that overall compared with the same period last year, it will only be better than worse.</p><p>And if the final result is indeed like this, it is only a matter of time before the Shanghai Stock Exchange breaks through the previous month's high.</p><p><strong>There is no suspense in the bullish market outlook</strong></p><p>There is a famous saying in the investment world:<strong>The future is more important than the past.</strong></p><p>It means that the stock market is rising or falling, and the most important thing is expectation.</p><p>In the past year on review, there is one thing that the author has experienced the most deeply. It happened in October last year. U.S. stocks fell to the low point of the year, and A-share Hong Kong stocks also bottomed out that month.</p><p>If you look at it from a simple linear thinking, the federal interest rate in the United States was not very high at that time, and the economy was still very strong, but why did it fall to a low level early? However, the pressure of the domestic epidemic situation and the economic pressure are so great that there was even a crisis of confidence in foreign capital. The rapid decline is understandable, but why did it rebound strongly within a few days? Shouldn't it continue to fall?</p><p><strong>In fact, the stock market has another characteristic, that is, it responds to the real economy in advance. This reaction usually takes half a year, and the process will be affected by other factors, which can be accelerated or slowed down.</strong></p><p>The bottom of the Sino-US stock markets in October last year was affected by this law, and now it has been verified step by step. First of all, the rate hike behavior of the United States. If it ends as scheduled in May this year, it will be exactly half a year from October last year; Secondly, China. That rapid decline did play a role in bottoming out in advance. Of course, the release of the epidemic in November was the most important factor in the rebound of the stock market. If the lockdown continues, the rebound will not come so soon.</p><p>But no matter what, if you want the stock market, whether it is A-shares, Hong Kong stocks or U.S. stocks, to return to the bottom of last year, the possibility is not high. Not to mention the domestic economy recovering and loose liquidity, even if U.S. stocks enter the \"profit-killing\" stage, unless the performance of listed companies collapses on a large scale, it is difficult to happen. When bank stocks thundered in March, it triggered a round of panic, but so far, there has been no expected collapse. Instead, the performance of big banks like JPMorgan Chase has increased significantly. In terms of indexes, the most injured Dow Jones has a volatility of around 10%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are far below 10%, and all three major indexes have fully recovered their losses in March and rose a lot.</p><p>It can be said that the biggest macro risk now is only the economic recession in the United States. If the stock market reflects the future characteristics in advance, the current trading will be half a year later. In other words, the stock market is pricing in a recession half a year from now. Of course, whether it is fully priced remains to be announced by other economic, listed company data, and follow-up policies. If these data fall beyond expectations, the stock market will still follow suit. If it meets expectations, the stock market can be flat, but if it improves beyond expectations, A rebound will happen at any time.</p><p>If we use the two factors mentioned above-economic fundamentals and liquidity, the liquidity crunch of U.S. stocks is basically priced by the market, and the only difference is to wait for the economy to bottom out. China's situation is even better, because our economic fundamentals have bottomed out and are in the recovery stage.</p><p><strong>epilogue</strong></p><p>If last year was the collapse moment of the global capital market, then this year's upward resonance of the global capital market should be the most anticipated and highly likely thing.</p><p>Looking at it now, the signs of a bullish market outlook may not be obvious, because except for the AI sector, other sectors are still relatively low-key, requiring some catalytic factors and taking some time. But just as the wind starts at the end of Qingping and the waves become between slight waves, the stock market will not directly tell you that the bull market is coming, but since the expectations for the future are good and the valuation is at a low level, it is a good thing to keep a low profile. This is equivalent to giving investors the opportunity to get on the bus. If it has gone wild, there is no chance.</p><p>Chinese people often say that it is extremely prosperous, and the same is true in the stock market. If one sentence is enough for the investment strategy of this year's stock market, it is:</p><p><strong>Don't miss this bull run!</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102189876","content_text":"经济似乎还略显冷意，但股市已经迫不及待要热起来。经过一个多月的调整，上周五上证指数再一次逼近3月7日的高位，并显示要突破的态势，而A股成交额更是连续9个交易日超越1万亿。无独有偶，即使是深受美国经济衰退影响的标普指数，也已经悄无声息地逼近2月2日的高位。股市的嗅觉最灵敏，资本也不会骗人，持续向上攻的事实，已经说明问题。那就是我们对于2023年市场的一个简单观点：不要错过这一轮牛市。宏观面每一轮牛市的发生，都有一个超级低谷作为前提。2022年是何等的低谷，每一个投资者都能感受得到。疫情反复、经济下滑，外围战事不断、加息疯狂，资本市场真的是苦不堪言。但任何事都会有了结的时刻，几个大的宏观风险，现在基本已经或者即将反转。首先是俄乌战争，资本市场早已钝化，其次是疫情也已经无关痛痒，现在唯一差的，就是全球的加息，尤其是美联储的正式结束。幸运的是，这个结束已经清晰可见，只差5月份会议的官宣。影响股市的两个基本因素，一个是经济基本面，一个是流动性。国内的经济基本面，复苏已成定局，表面上看国内的宏观经济数据似乎并没有太令人激动，但好转的迹象正在一步步呈现，特别是消费层面，“五一”将至，旅游机票酒店的预定数据增强了消费回暖的逻辑。现在市场都在等待两天后公布的2023年一季度的宏观经济数据，考虑到年初疫情放开后出现过一轮全民感染，数据未必很强劲，但基本也可以预见，这应该算是今年的底部了。外围方面，美国经济衰退大概率会出现，对于中国出口会有负面作用。因为作为中国第三大贸易伙伴，2022年如此艰难的情况下，中国出口美国依然高达5368亿美元。不过，中国本身也在扩大和全球其他经济体的联系，努力对冲美国的负面影响。而拉长时间看，即使美国衰退预约而至，根据美联储官员的预计，影响主要在今年，明后两年会走向复苏。所以，熬过今年基本也就没事了。对于中国经济基本面，短期看确实会有一些扰动，但中长期确实没有理由悲观，也不可能再下探到去年的低位。即使一些深层次的问题，例如大国博弈、科技创新，不会马上得到解决，可幸的是，这些问题也不至于再度恶化，而且国家也在努力一步步突围。流动性方面，中国的CPI维持在较低的位置，3月份只有0.7%，这似乎预示着经济仍有待更强劲的复苏，但反过来说，为刺激经济以及继续宽松货币增加更多的可能性。实际上，货币层面已经看到明显的宽松，特别是不久前公布的社融、M2数据，只不过从货币层面到经济的传导需要时间。另外，美联储的激进加息一步步走向终结，也为我们的货币政策提供更多的施展空间。宏观经济处于复苏通道，流动性的大方向是宽松，股市走牛，就有了最基本的支持。微观面微观层面，主要是企业的盈利，恰逢上市公司集体披露一季报。截至今天，A股披露一季度业绩预告的公司超过200家，其中消费股的朗姿股份、燕京啤酒增长非常强劲，其中朗姿股份归母净利润同比增长达到377-566倍，燕京啤酒同比增长71-75倍。虽然看上去极端，但也代表了消费股从去年被疫情压制，到今年放开疫情后强势的反弹态势。而以半导体为代表的科技股，同样显示出强劲的增长态势。典型的是半导体设备商北方华创，预计归母净利润同比增长1.71--2倍。在年初的文章中，我们就多次提及半导体的投资机会，不过彼时主要是基于半导体的库存周期在今年上半年见底，下半年进入上升通道，炒的是周期反转的逻辑。其后出现的chatGPT热潮，加速了半导体的周期反转，更重要的是，chatGPT的大热，也标志着以AI为首的新一轮技术革命进入快车道，这个可以比肩机械化、电气化和信息化，而且比它们规模更大的技术革命，给包括半导体在内的科技行业带来新的增长空间，一个新的蓝海序幕已经徐徐展开。这也是我们不断重复今年的投资主线，数字经济必定是最大的一个的理由。如果说以往中国在科技方面基本都是跟着别人走，但这一次，中国是最有希望成为其中一位领跑者，因为数字经济已经被确立为国家重点发展和扶持的产业，更重要的是，中国在数字经济方面的实力已经大大提高，即使在一些关键技术领域和美国尚有差距，但和全球大部分国家相比，优势还是很明显。虽然A股上也存在不少蹭概念的公司，但总体上看，这一个技术革命，中国出现相对应的真牛股是大概率的，这无疑也为股市走牛提供了更大的可能性。至少从资金面上看，这种拥有广阔增长前景和预期收益的技术革命，是很容易吸引增量资金进入股市的。作为投资者，需要更多地关注这一次的季报，因为这不但会印证国内经济的复苏程度，也会成为预测接下来经济以及上市公司业绩的重要依据，还是验证增量资金进入股市的证据。虽然现在尚未全部公布，过早下结论不可取，但鉴于今年没有已经没有疫情扰动，至少可以肯定，整体上比起去年同期，只会好不会差。而如果最后的结果确实如此的话，上证突围前月高点，只是时间问题。后市走牛无悬念投资界有句名言：未来比过去重要。意思是，股市后面是涨是跌，最重要的是预期。复盘过去一年，有一点是笔者体会最为深刻的，都发生去年10月，美股跌入年内低点，A股港股也是在那个月见底。如果简单的线性思维去看，那时美国的联邦利率并没有很高，经济也还很强劲，但为何早早就跌入低位呢？而国内疫情压力、经济压力又那么大，甚至一度传出外资出现信心危机，快速下跌可以理解，但为何没过几天就强力反弹了呢？难道不应该继续下跌吗？实际上，股市还有另一个特征，就是提前对实体经济做出反应，这种反应通常以半年为常，而且过程当中还会受其他因素的影响，可以加快也可以减慢。去年10月份中美股市的底部，就受到这个规律的影响，现在也一步步得到验证，首先是美国的加息行为，如果今年5月份如期结束，距离去年10月份，正好半年；其次是中国，那一次快速下跌，确实起到了提前见底的作用，当然，11月疫情放开是股市反弹也是最重要的一个因素，如果继续封控，反弹未至于那么快到来。但不管如何，想要股市，不管是A股、港股还是美股，回到去年的底部位置，可能性都不高了，国内经济复苏，流动性宽松就不说了，即使是美股进入“杀盈利”阶段，除非上市公司业绩大面积崩溃，否则很难会出现。3月份银行股暴雷的时候，曾经引发过一轮恐慌，但到现在为止，也没有出现预期中的崩溃现象，摩根大通这种大银行业绩反而大增。指数方面，最受伤的道琼斯波幅在10%左右，而纳斯达克、标普500远低于10%，并且三大指数都已经完全收复3月份跌幅并上涨不少。可以说，现在最大的宏观风险只是美国的经济衰退，如果按照股市提前反应未来的特征，现在交易的正是半年之后。换句话说，股市正在定价半年之后的经济衰退。当然，是否完全定价还有待于其他经济、上市公司数据，以及后续政策的公布，如果这些数据超预期下滑，那股市还是会跟着，如果符合预期，那股市可以持平，但如果超预期向好，反弹就会随时发生。如果用前文所说的两个因素——经济基本面和流动性，美股的流动性紧缩基本被市场定价，唯一差的就是等经济面见底。而中国的情况，要更好一些，因为我们的经济基本面已经见底，并处于回升阶段。结语如果说去年是全球资本市场的崩溃时刻，那今年出现全球资本市场向上共振，应该是最值得期待，也是大概率的事情。现在看，后市走牛的迹象可能还不至于很明显，因为除了AI板块，其他板块都还相对低调，需要一些催化因素，也需要一些时日。但正如风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，股市不会直接告诉你牛市来了，但既然对于未来的预期向好，估值上又处于低位，表现低调反而是好事，这等于给了投资者上车的机会。如果已经狂飙起来了，机会就没有了。中国人常常说否极泰来，放在股市也是如此。如果说对于今年股市的投资策略，一句话足矣，那就是：不要错过这一轮牛市！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9962194388,"gmtCreate":1669732802644,"gmtModify":1676538232022,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962194388","repostId":"1112940262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112940262","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669732242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112940262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-29 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks were mixed, Bilibili rose more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112940262","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月29日，美股开盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.17%，纳指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.01%。热门中概股集体上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.63%。哔哩哔哩涨逾13%，Q3营收58亿元，同比增长11","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 29, U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow falling 0.17%, the Nasdaq rising 0.04%, and the S&P 500 rising 0.01%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8580e2cd73c3d27ce777aae67e0c9d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Popular Chinese concept stocks rose collectively, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 4.63%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 13%, and Q3 revenue was 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>It rose more than 11%, and Q3 revenue of 1.179 billion yuan exceeded expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Rose more than 5%.</p><p>Lordstown Motors rose 6%. On the news, its first batch of Endurance ™ The pickup truck has left the Ohio plant for customer delivery.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 1.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An improved version of the Model 3 is being developed to cut costs and improve the appeal of this model.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Will sell Canadian banking business for C $13.5 billion, and consider distributing Dividend or buyback.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | U.S. stocks were mixed, Bilibili rose more than 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks were mixed, Bilibili rose more than 13%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-29 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 29, U.S. stocks opened mixed, with the Dow falling 0.17%, the Nasdaq rising 0.04%, and the S&P 500 rising 0.01%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8580e2cd73c3d27ce777aae67e0c9d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Popular Chinese concept stocks rose collectively, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 4.63%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 13%, and Q3 revenue was 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>It rose more than 11%, and Q3 revenue of 1.179 billion yuan exceeded expectations.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Rose more than 5%.</p><p>Lordstown Motors rose 6%. On the news, its first batch of Endurance ™ The pickup truck has left the Ohio plant for customer delivery.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 1.37%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An improved version of the Model 3 is being developed to cut costs and improve the appeal of this model.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Will sell Canadian banking business for C $13.5 billion, and consider distributing Dividend or buyback.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK1608":"元宇宙概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4510":"在线教育","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1587":"次新股","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4513":"直播概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112940262","content_text":"11月29日，美股开盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.17%，纳指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.01%。热门中概股集体上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.63%。哔哩哔哩涨逾13%，Q3营收58亿元，同比增长11%。BOSS直聘涨超11%，Q3营收11.79亿元超预期。京东涨逾7%，拼多多、阿里巴巴涨逾5%。Lordstown Motors涨6%，消息面上，其首批Endurance™皮卡车已离开俄亥俄州工厂向客户交付。特斯拉涨1.37%，特斯拉正开发Model 3改进版，旨在削减成本并提高这款车型的吸引力。汇丰控股涨超4%，汇丰将135亿加元出售加拿大银行业务，并考虑派发股息或回购。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"09626":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987652923,"gmtCreate":1667899921262,"gmtModify":1676537981822,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987652923","repostId":"1161361872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987022375,"gmtCreate":1667780866497,"gmtModify":1676537961593,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987022375","repostId":"2281614713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914559078,"gmtCreate":1665324980595,"gmtModify":1676537587702,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914559078","repostId":"2274373217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274373217","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665298374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274373217?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-09 14:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The quality control of the \"new forces\" in the United States is too poor? Rivian Recalls Almost Every Car It Sold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274373217","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Rivian 表示，这一安全隐患可能导致车轮过度外倾甚至倾斜，在一些极端情况下还会导致车轮与汽车分离，影响司机操控汽车。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Rivian recalled nearly all of its manufactured vehicles due to safety hazards from loose parts. On Saturday, October 8, local time, American electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian issued a notice saying that a fastener connecting the control arm and steering knuckle on its vehicle may be improperly installed. This problem may cause the wheel to excessively camber or even tilt. In some extreme cases, it can also cause the wheel to separate from the car, affecting the driver's control of the car. The company decided to recall almost all of its vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, a Rivian spokesperson said that the recall involves about 13,000 vehicles produced by the company between the end of 2021 and September 2022, and there are no known casualties related to the potential problem. Rivian Estimated,<b>Of the recalled vehicles, 1% were affected by the issue.</b></p><p>The spokesman also said that Rivian first started producing cars in September 2021 and has produced more than 15,000 cars as of the third quarter of this year. The recall involves all three models Rivian currently sells: electric pickups, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans.</p><p>Rivian sent emails about the recall to all affected customers and<b>The financial impact of the recall is expected to be negligible, and all vehicles are expected to be inspected within 30 days.</b></p><p>The recall comes at a critical time for Rivian, which is accelerating production at its plant in Illinois to meet its full-year production target of 25,000 vehicles.</p><p>While Rivian shined in its IPO last year, the situation has been tougher this year, with shortages on the supply side, especially in semiconductors, continuing to hinder its production increase and driving up costs. The company's shares are down nearly 67% this year.</p><p>Rivian's shares were mostly flat in after-hours trading after news of the recall broke late Friday. As of Friday's close, Rivian had a market cap of $33.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1320cb93a709ac148d43d4a22676a498\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In August, Rivian learned of the safety hazard and subsequently launched an investigation, according to a notice filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. As of Sept. 28, the company identified six cases of loose parts and decided to recall the vehicles.</p><p>Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe reminded customers in a letter to stop driving their vehicles if they encounter any steering problems. \"It is important not to downplay the potential risks and why we voluntarily conducted the recall.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The quality control of the \"new forces\" in the United States is too poor? Rivian Recalls Almost Every Car It Sold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe quality control of the \"new forces\" in the United States is too poor? Rivian Recalls Almost Every Car It Sold\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-09 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Rivian recalled nearly all of its manufactured vehicles due to safety hazards from loose parts. On Saturday, October 8, local time, American electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian issued a notice saying that a fastener connecting the control arm and steering knuckle on its vehicle may be improperly installed. This problem may cause the wheel to excessively camber or even tilt. In some extreme cases, it can also cause the wheel to separate from the car, affecting the driver's control of the car. The company decided to recall almost all of its vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, a Rivian spokesperson said that the recall involves about 13,000 vehicles produced by the company between the end of 2021 and September 2022, and there are no known casualties related to the potential problem. Rivian Estimated,<b>Of the recalled vehicles, 1% were affected by the issue.</b></p><p>The spokesman also said that Rivian first started producing cars in September 2021 and has produced more than 15,000 cars as of the third quarter of this year. The recall involves all three models Rivian currently sells: electric pickups, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans.</p><p>Rivian sent emails about the recall to all affected customers and<b>The financial impact of the recall is expected to be negligible, and all vehicles are expected to be inspected within 30 days.</b></p><p>The recall comes at a critical time for Rivian, which is accelerating production at its plant in Illinois to meet its full-year production target of 25,000 vehicles.</p><p>While Rivian shined in its IPO last year, the situation has been tougher this year, with shortages on the supply side, especially in semiconductors, continuing to hinder its production increase and driving up costs. The company's shares are down nearly 67% this year.</p><p>Rivian's shares were mostly flat in after-hours trading after news of the recall broke late Friday. As of Friday's close, Rivian had a market cap of $33.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1320cb93a709ac148d43d4a22676a498\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In August, Rivian learned of the safety hazard and subsequently launched an investigation, according to a notice filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. As of Sept. 28, the company identified six cases of loose parts and decided to recall the vehicles.</p><p>Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe reminded customers in a letter to stop driving their vehicles if they encounter any steering problems. \"It is important not to downplay the potential risks and why we voluntarily conducted the recall.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671902\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe1978aa2a9f9f30678043cc1967d5f","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671902","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274373217","content_text":"由于零部件松动带来的安全隐患，Rivian 召回了几乎所有生产的车辆。当地时间10月8日周六，美国电动车制造商 Rivian 发布通知称，连接其车辆上控制臂和转向节的一个紧固件可能安装不当，这一问题可能导致车轮过度外倾甚至倾斜，在一些极端情况下还会导致车轮与汽车分离，影响司机操控汽车。该公司决定召回几乎所有的车辆。据媒体报道，Rivian 的一名发言人表示，此次召回涉及该公司在2021年底至2022年9月期间生产的约1.3万辆汽车，目前还没有已知与该潜在问题有关的人员伤亡。Rivian 估计，在被召回的车辆中，有1%的车辆受到该问题的影响。发言人还称，Rivian 于2021年9月首次开始生产汽车，截至今年第三季度共生产了1.5万多辆汽车。此次召回涉及 Rivian 目前销售的所有三款车型：电动皮卡、SUV和商用送货货车。Rivian 向所有受影响的客户发送了关于召回的电子邮件，并预计召回的财务影响可以忽略不计，并希望在30天内对所有车辆进行检查。此次召回发生在 Rivian 的关键时刻，该公司为了实现2.5万辆的全年生产目标，正在加快其位于伊利诺伊州工厂的生产。尽管 Rivian 去年在IPO中大放异彩，但今年的形势更为艰难，供应方面尤其是半导体的短缺继续阻碍其增产，并推高了成本。该公司股价今年以来下跌了近67%。在周五晚些时候传出召回消息后，Rivian 的股价在盘后交易中基本持平。截至周五收盘，Rivian的市值为337亿美元。根据提交给美国国家公路交通安全管理局的一份通知，今年8月，Rivian 得知了这一安全隐患并随后展开了调查。截至9月28日，该公司发现了6起零部件松动的案例，并决定召回这些车辆。Rivian 首席执行官 RJ Scaringe 一封信中提醒客户，如果遇到任何转向问题请停止驾驶车辆，“重要的是不要淡化潜在风险，以及为什么我们自愿进行召回”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915581412,"gmtCreate":1665069433736,"gmtModify":1676537552719,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915581412","repostId":"1137490856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911298407,"gmtCreate":1664205286609,"gmtModify":1676537409926,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911298407","repostId":"1112141228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925535386,"gmtCreate":1672062310645,"gmtModify":1676538628483,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925535386","repostId":"1197453989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197453989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672060910,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197453989?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 21:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs' Top 10 Forecasts for the U.S. Economy in 2022, Seven and a Half Right","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197453989","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>It's time to look back on the whole year again. Goldman Sachs' ten questions and ten answers at the beginning of 2022, how many of them were answered correctly?</p><p>The answer is seven and a half. Compared with the results of the previous two years (2 in 2020 and 7 in 2021), Goldman Sachs has performed slightly better this year.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs expected, the U.S. Congress only passed some of the spending measures proposed by the White House; The decline in the savings rate is not enough to offset the impact of the sharp tightening; U.S. GDP Growth Well Below Consensus; Although the unemployment rate has declined, it is still low; The Fed is quite hawkish on rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, and the peak of the Fed's Federal Funds rate has been revised upward.</p><p>To Goldman Sachs' surprise, wage growth remained at around 5%, and core inflation rose further; Supply chain recovery was delayed by unexpected shocks, sending inflation unexpectedly higher.</p><p>Despite the unexpected rise in inflation, Goldman Sachs believes that 2022 is the year when fiscal and monetary tightening policies have successfully stepped on the brakes and supply and demand have rebalanced. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to conduct another rate hike in 2023, bringing interest rates to a peak of 5-5.25%, keeping the adjustment process on track.</p><p>1. Will the U.S. Congress increase spending in 2022?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes, but the impact on 2022 may be small.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. At the time, Goldman Sachs expected that Congress would not pass all measures of the \"Build Back Better\" bill, especially not extending the child tax credit, but moderately increasing spending on manufacturing and supply chain incentives.</p><p>As it turned out, this was correct, and Congress finally passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which focused on clean energy, climate incentives, and health insurance subsidies, as well as the CHIPS and Science Act, which focused on incentivising semiconductor manufacturing.</p><p>2. Will U.S. GDP growth meet consensus expectations?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. The market consensus expects GDP growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, and Goldman Sachs' forecast has been lowered by 1 percentage point.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes fiscal stimulus will drop significantly as the pandemic relief package expires. The latest tracking estimate from Goldman Sachs suggests GDP growth of just 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022.</p><p>3. Will the savings rate continue to decline?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. At that time, Goldman Sachs believed that the savings rate would decline, households gradually resumed spending on epidemic-sensitive services, and used excess savings to offset the income loss caused by the expiration of epidemic relief plans, as well as savings amid record high incomes and low unemployment risks. Limited demand.</p><p>These factors prompted the savings rate to fall by more than 5% to 2.3% in October, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectations and only slightly above the lowest level in history.</p><p>4. Will the unemployment rate fall below the average level of 3.7% in 2019?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Barely correct. The unemployment rate was as low as 3.5% in September, and while it has since recovered to 3.7%, it is only slightly below the 2019 average.</p><p>The employment-labor gap, a measure of how tight the labor market is and a factor contributing to the huge level of job vacancies, has fallen significantly from its peak, but still indicates that the labor market is tighter than it was in 2019.</p><p>5. Will wages maintain the recent growth rate of 5-6%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. Goldman's payroll tracker showed a 5.4% increase instead of the 4% it had previously expected. Wage growth slowed sharply on the pay scale after emergency unemployment benefits expired, but picked up elsewhere.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that there are three main reasons for this change. First, wage growth did not trend downward at the end of 2021 as previously shown, as indicated by the large revision of average hourly earnings announced in early January. Second, labor demand surged in 2022, and the job market was very tight throughout the year. Third, the cost of living for many workers is higher when further inflationary shocks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, push headline CPI inflation to a peak of 9%.</p><p>6. Will the core PCE inflation rate fall below 3%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. At that time, Goldman Sachs predicted that core PCE inflation would drop sharply, core service inflation would remain roughly stable, and core commodity inflation would drop sharply. It believed that the recovery on the supply side would boost production and reverse the price surge caused by shortages.</p><p>Conversely, core services inflation has risen sharply, especially housing inflation. Core commodity inflation has declined, but not as much as Goldman expected, with its forecast at around 5%, in part because the shock to global supply earlier this year further delayed the supply chain recovery, which has only begun to show signs of deflation in recent months.</p><p>7. Will inflation expectations drop in the near future?</p><p>Goldman's answer: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. This year, short-term consumer inflation expectations first rose and then fell sharply from their peak as gasoline prices and broader inflationary pressures declined, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, long-term inflation expectations have risen modestly from depressed pre-pandemic levels and have remained within the target range since then.</p><p>8. Will the Fed raise the target range of the funds rate by at least 75bp?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. Goldman started the year with a hawkish forecast for the Fed, largely because Goldman expects core inflation to remain uncomfortably high throughout 2022. In the end, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate by a cumulative 425 basis points, far exceeding expectations.</p><p>9. Will the Federal Reserve announce the start of reducing its balance sheet?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. The Federal Reserve officially launched the shrinking balance sheet in June, with a monthly shrinking balance sheet ceiling of US $47.5 billion from June to August, and this rate will double in September, with the ceiling raised to US $95 billion, including US Treasury Bond of 60 billion and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) of 35 billion, accounting for about 1% of assets and liabilities.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects the shrinking balance sheet to last until late 2024 or early 2025, with the FOMC slowing down the pace of shrinking balance sheet in the final phase to avoid overshooting.</p><p>10. Will the market increase the pricing of policy funding interest rates?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. Goldman Sachs forecasts a terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%, and market pricing now implies a peak of 4.85% in May 2023, roughly 25 basis points below Goldman's forecast range of 5-5.25%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs' Top 10 Forecasts for the U.S. Economy in 2022, Seven and a Half Right</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs' Top 10 Forecasts for the U.S. Economy in 2022, Seven and a Half Right\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-26 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>It's time to look back on the whole year again. Goldman Sachs' ten questions and ten answers at the beginning of 2022, how many of them were answered correctly?</p><p>The answer is seven and a half. Compared with the results of the previous two years (2 in 2020 and 7 in 2021), Goldman Sachs has performed slightly better this year.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs expected, the U.S. Congress only passed some of the spending measures proposed by the White House; The decline in the savings rate is not enough to offset the impact of the sharp tightening; U.S. GDP Growth Well Below Consensus; Although the unemployment rate has declined, it is still low; The Fed is quite hawkish on rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, and the peak of the Fed's Federal Funds rate has been revised upward.</p><p>To Goldman Sachs' surprise, wage growth remained at around 5%, and core inflation rose further; Supply chain recovery was delayed by unexpected shocks, sending inflation unexpectedly higher.</p><p>Despite the unexpected rise in inflation, Goldman Sachs believes that 2022 is the year when fiscal and monetary tightening policies have successfully stepped on the brakes and supply and demand have rebalanced. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to conduct another rate hike in 2023, bringing interest rates to a peak of 5-5.25%, keeping the adjustment process on track.</p><p>1. Will the U.S. Congress increase spending in 2022?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes, but the impact on 2022 may be small.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. At the time, Goldman Sachs expected that Congress would not pass all measures of the \"Build Back Better\" bill, especially not extending the child tax credit, but moderately increasing spending on manufacturing and supply chain incentives.</p><p>As it turned out, this was correct, and Congress finally passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which focused on clean energy, climate incentives, and health insurance subsidies, as well as the CHIPS and Science Act, which focused on incentivising semiconductor manufacturing.</p><p>2. Will U.S. GDP growth meet consensus expectations?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. The market consensus expects GDP growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, and Goldman Sachs' forecast has been lowered by 1 percentage point.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes fiscal stimulus will drop significantly as the pandemic relief package expires. The latest tracking estimate from Goldman Sachs suggests GDP growth of just 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022.</p><p>3. Will the savings rate continue to decline?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. At that time, Goldman Sachs believed that the savings rate would decline, households gradually resumed spending on epidemic-sensitive services, and used excess savings to offset the income loss caused by the expiration of epidemic relief plans, as well as savings amid record high incomes and low unemployment risks. Limited demand.</p><p>These factors prompted the savings rate to fall by more than 5% to 2.3% in October, exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectations and only slightly above the lowest level in history.</p><p>4. Will the unemployment rate fall below the average level of 3.7% in 2019?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Barely correct. The unemployment rate was as low as 3.5% in September, and while it has since recovered to 3.7%, it is only slightly below the 2019 average.</p><p>The employment-labor gap, a measure of how tight the labor market is and a factor contributing to the huge level of job vacancies, has fallen significantly from its peak, but still indicates that the labor market is tighter than it was in 2019.</p><p>5. Will wages maintain the recent growth rate of 5-6%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: No.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. Goldman's payroll tracker showed a 5.4% increase instead of the 4% it had previously expected. Wage growth slowed sharply on the pay scale after emergency unemployment benefits expired, but picked up elsewhere.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that there are three main reasons for this change. First, wage growth did not trend downward at the end of 2021 as previously shown, as indicated by the large revision of average hourly earnings announced in early January. Second, labor demand surged in 2022, and the job market was very tight throughout the year. Third, the cost of living for many workers is higher when further inflationary shocks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, push headline CPI inflation to a peak of 9%.</p><p>6. Will the core PCE inflation rate fall below 3%?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>Comment: Incorrect. At that time, Goldman Sachs predicted that core PCE inflation would drop sharply, core service inflation would remain roughly stable, and core commodity inflation would drop sharply. It believed that the recovery on the supply side would boost production and reverse the price surge caused by shortages.</p><p>Conversely, core services inflation has risen sharply, especially housing inflation. Core commodity inflation has declined, but not as much as Goldman expected, with its forecast at around 5%, in part because the shock to global supply earlier this year further delayed the supply chain recovery, which has only begun to show signs of deflation in recent months.</p><p>7. Will inflation expectations drop in the near future?</p><p>Goldman's answer: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. This year, short-term consumer inflation expectations first rose and then fell sharply from their peak as gasoline prices and broader inflationary pressures declined, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, long-term inflation expectations have risen modestly from depressed pre-pandemic levels and have remained within the target range since then.</p><p>8. Will the Fed raise the target range of the funds rate by at least 75bp?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. Goldman started the year with a hawkish forecast for the Fed, largely because Goldman expects core inflation to remain uncomfortably high throughout 2022. In the end, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate by a cumulative 425 basis points, far exceeding expectations.</p><p>9. Will the Federal Reserve announce the start of reducing its balance sheet?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. The Federal Reserve officially launched the shrinking balance sheet in June, with a monthly shrinking balance sheet ceiling of US $47.5 billion from June to August, and this rate will double in September, with the ceiling raised to US $95 billion, including US Treasury Bond of 60 billion and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) of 35 billion, accounting for about 1% of assets and liabilities.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects the shrinking balance sheet to last until late 2024 or early 2025, with the FOMC slowing down the pace of shrinking balance sheet in the final phase to avoid overshooting.</p><p>10. Will the market increase the pricing of policy funding interest rates?</p><p>Answer at the beginning of the year: Yes.</p><p>COMMENT: Correct. Goldman Sachs forecasts a terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%, and market pricing now implies a peak of 4.85% in May 2023, roughly 25 basis points below Goldman's forecast range of 5-5.25%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678353","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1197453989","content_text":"又到了回首一整年的时候了。高盛2022年初的十问十答，答对了几个呢？答案是七个半，相较于前两年的成绩（2020年2个和2021年7个），高盛今年表现稍胜一筹。正如高盛所料，美国国会只通过了白宫提出的部分支出措施；储蓄率的下降不足以抵消大幅紧缩的影响；美国GDP增长远低于普遍预期；尽管失业率出现下滑，但仍处于低位；美联储在加息和缩表上颇为鹰派，美联储联邦基金利率峰值有所上调。出乎高盛预料的是，工资增长率保持在5%左右，核心通胀率进一步上升；供应链复苏因意外冲击而推迟，导致通胀意外走高。尽管通胀意外上升，但高盛认为，2022年是财政和货币紧缩政策成功踩下刹车，供需重新走向平衡的一年。高盛预计，美联储将在2023年再度加息，使利率达到5-5.25%的峰值，将调整进程保持在正轨。1、美国国会是否会在2022年提高支出？年初的回答：会，但对2022年的影响可能不大。评论：正确。当时高盛预计，国会不会通过“重建更美好”法案全部措施，特别是不会延长儿童税收抵免，但会适度增加制造业和供应链激励措施的支出。事实证明，这是正确的，国会最终通过了以清洁能源、气候激励以及健康保险补贴为重点的《通胀削减法案》，还有以激励半导体制造业为重点的《CHIPS和科学法案》。2、美国GDP增长会达到共识预期吗？年初的回答：不会。评论：正确。市场一致预期2021年第四季度的GDP增长为3.4%，高盛的预测下调了1个百分点。高盛认为，随着疫情救济计划到期，财政刺激将大幅下降。高盛的最新跟踪估计表明，2022年第四季度GDP增长仅为0.6%。3、储蓄率会继续下降吗？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。当时高盛认为储蓄率会下降，家庭逐渐恢复对疫情敏感的服务支出，并利用多余的储蓄来抵消疫情救助计划到期带来的收入损失，以及在创纪录的高收入和低失业风险中，储蓄需求有限。以上因素促使10月份的储蓄率下降了5%以上，至2.3%，超过了高盛预期，仅略高于历史最低水平。4、失业率是否会降到2019年的平均水平3.7%以下？年初的回答：会。评论：几乎不正确。9月份的失业率低至3.5%，虽然此后回升至3.7%，但仅略低于2019年的平均水平。就业—劳动力缺口是衡量劳动力市场紧张程度的指标，也是导致职位空缺水平巨高不下的一个因素，虽然已从峰值大幅下降，但仍表明劳动力市场比2019年更为紧张。5、工资会保持最近5-6%的增长速度吗？年初的回答：不会。评论：不正确。高盛的工资追踪系统显示增长了5.4%，而不是其之前预期的4%。在紧急失业救济金到期后，工资增长在薪级表上急剧减速，但在其他地方却有所回升。高盛认为，导致这一变化主要有以下三点原因。首先，2021年底工资增长并没有像之前显示那样呈下降趋势，1月初公布的平均小时收入的大幅度修正表明了这一点。第二，2022年劳动力需求激增，就业市场全年都非常紧张。第三，包括俄乌冲突在内的进一步通胀冲击将整体CPI通胀推至9%的峰值时，许多工人的生活成本更高。6、核心PCE通胀率会降到3%以下吗？年初的回答：会。评论：不正确。当时高盛预计核心PCE通胀将大幅下降，核心服务通胀大致保持稳定，核心商品通胀大幅下降，其认为供应端复苏提振生产，会扭转短缺导致的价格飙升。相反，核心服务业通胀大幅上升，尤其是住房通胀。核心商品通胀有所下降，但降幅并没有高盛预期的那么高，高盛的预测在5%左右，这在一定程度上是因为今年早些时候对全球供应的冲击进一步推迟了供应链复苏，近几个月才开始显示通缩迹象。7、近期通胀预期会下降吗？高盛的回答：会。评论：正确。今年，短期消费者通胀预期首先上升，然后随着汽油价格和更广泛的通胀压力下降，从峰值大幅下降，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。相比之下，长期通胀预期从疫情前的低迷水平温和上升，此后一直保持在目标区间内的水平。8、美联储是否会将基金利率的目标范围提高至少75bp？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。今年伊始，高盛对美联储的预测偏鹰派，主要是因为高盛预计核心通胀在2022年全年将维持在令人不安的高位。最终，美联储将联邦基金利率累计提高了425个基点，远超预期。9、美联储是否会宣布开启缩减资产负债表？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。美联储在6月正式启动缩表，6至8月每月缩表上限为475亿美元，而这一速度将在9月开始翻倍，上限提高至950亿美元，其中包括600亿的美国国债和350亿的抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），约占资产负债规模的1%。高盛预计缩表将持续到2024年底或2025年初，FOMC将在最后阶段放慢缩表的步伐，以避免超调。10、市场会增加政策资金利率的定价吗？年初的回答：会。评论：正确。高盛预测最终利率为2.5-2.75%，现在的市场定价意味着2023年5月将达到4.85%的峰值，比高盛预测的区间5-5.25%低大约25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919202638,"gmtCreate":1663805167224,"gmtModify":1676537338822,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919202638","repostId":"1155005906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155005906","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663804173,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155005906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Full Text of Fed Resolution review: The Finish Line of Tightening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155005906","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。Mikko的笔记终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The terminal interest rate was raised to more than 4.5%, reflecting the Fed's determination to continue tightening. Although the dot plot is only the expectation of the current period and does not represent the future policy, it still dispels the market's idea of the Fed's rapid shift to easing in the short term.</p><p><b>Mikko's Notes</b></p><p><ul><li>Terminal interest rate<b>It was raised to a level of more than 4.5%, reflecting the Fed's determination to continue tightening</b>。</p><p></li><li>Although the bitplot is only the expectation of the current period and does not represent the future policy, the short-term<b>Still dispelled the market's idea of the Fed's rapid shift to easing</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>Inflation remains the number one priority</b>, Powell directly stated during the Q&A at the press conference that he still maintains his position in Jackson Hole.</p><p></li><li>Before the mid-term elections,<b>The Federal Reserve handed over an extremely \"politically correct\" economic forecast,</b>Only slightly raised the unemployment forecast, still in mind<b>\"Soft landing\"</b>Anticipation.</p><p></li><li>... Can such a low job market and economic growth sacrifice rate be exchanged for inflation that meets the standard? Judging from the statements of most members, they think that their predictions are highly uncertain,<b>May underestimate the upside risks to the unemployment rate</b>。</p><p></li><li>Reporters who asked questions at the press conference were very concerned about when the Fed would stop its rate hike and turn to loose conditions, but Powell offered a mandarin answer of \"listen to what you say, like listening to what you say\".<b>Avoid and refuse to give clear forward guidance</b>。</p><p></li><li>A reporter asked extremely sarcastically, \"Since you said meeting by meeting, will the next meeting be 75bp?\"<b>The side reflects the poor quality of information at the current press conference and the extremely limited policy communication of the Federal Reserve. I can hardly find any valuable incremental information in the launch conference.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>I found out that the price was wrong that day...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f751934d89dd7c949d82f41aeeb03317\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Full Statement</b></p><p>Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation mains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Recent economic indicators suggest modest growth in spending and production. In recent months, job growth has been strong and unemployment has remained low. Inflation remains high, reflecting pandemic-related supply-demand imbalances, rising food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risk.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing huge human and economic difficulties. The war and related events are putting additional upward pressure on inflation and weighing on global economic activity. The Committee places high priority on inflation risks.</p><p>The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be approved. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that was issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.</p><p>The committee seeks to achieve full employment and 2% inflation in the long term. In support of these targets, the Committee decided to increase the target range for Federal Funds rate to 3% to 3.25% (75 basis points) and expects to continue to increase the interest rate range. In addition, the Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond, agency debt, and MBS, as outlined in the Plan to Reduce the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet released in May. The Committee is firmly committed to returning inflation to its target of 2%.</p><p>In assessing the approval stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implementations of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as approvate if risk emerge that could impede the attachment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international development.</p><p>When assessing the appropriate position of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook. The Committee will be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if there are risks that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives. The committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments.</p><p><b>Economic forecasts</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c73a4dcc5fcf604676bf0eab20256c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b658dae5a3a91751339721e530fdb79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is great uncertainty in unemployment forecast and the risk of upward adjustment...</p><p><b>Bitmap</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99efed7d925872793abdd652a9c8adfc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Press conference Q&A</b></p><p>Q1. The Fed will<b>When to Mitigate rate hike</b>, and what factors will be considered when deciding to stop rate hike?</p><p><b>I won't answer your question head-on</b>。 First of all, I want to emphasize that the purpose of the Federal Reserve has not changed since the Jackson Hole meeting. The Fed will keep tightening until inflation subsides. Specifically, in order to bring inflation below 2%, we need 1) economic growth below trend and 2) a balance between supply and demand in the labor market. We have achieved the former, while we still need to work hard on the latter. Therefore, we need to raise the Federal Funds rate to the level of austerity. (About the factors to stop the rate hike) First, we will track whether the economic growth is below the trend, secondly, the labor supply is more balanced, and finally, there is tangible evidence that inflation has dropped to 2%. Regarding interest rate cuts, we will only consider it after inflation has actually dropped to 2%. Q2. How does the Fed consider the effect of (monetary policy) on inflation<b>Time lag?</b></p><p>Monetary policy does have time lag. I think monetary policy transmits financial conditions very quickly, and sometimes financial conditions are ahead of the announcement of monetary policy. Financial conditions can start to affect the real economy very quickly, usually within one to two months. But the transmission of financial conditions to inflation may take some time.<b>We will pay attention to this</b>, which is why I mentioned at the beginning: \"As the monetary stance continues to tighten, we will consider the impact of the overall monetary stance on the economy and inflation, and consider slowing down the rate hike.\" Follow up: Will the Fed always have a linear rate hike, or will it stop rate hike and maintain it for a while to reflect on the impact of monetary policy on the economy?</p><p>It's hard to say what the path of rate hike will be after the Fed. Our aim is to maintain tightening until inflation is over. What you can read from the SEP is the interest rate level that the FOMC governors deem appropriate at this time point, and this will change over time. It is possible that we will keep interest rates at a certain level, but we haven't reached that level yet.<b>I think we have just reached the lower edge of what can be called tightening</b>。 Both the FOMC and my view are that we still need to continue (rate hike). Q3. The unemployment rate for next year in the SEP reached 4.4%. Historically, this level of unemployment has led to a recession.<b>Can this forecast be interpreted as an impossibility of a soft landing by the Fed</b>。 Is it necessary for monetary policy to be so tighter?</p><p>In the SEP, the Federal Reserve predicts a moderate growth in the unemployment rate. This is mainly because the current economic situation is very different from the past. First of all, the number of job vacancies is high compared with the number of job seekers, so unlike in the past, the decline of job vacancies can coexist with a slight increase in unemployment rate. Secondly, long-term inflation expectations are stable. That means it's easier to pull down inflation. Finally, inflation is partly due to supply-side shocks, such as the epidemic, economic unblocking, and the Russia-Ukraine war. At present, there is evidence that the supply shock is showing signs of easing: for example, commodity prices are beginning to fall. We have always thought it was very challenging to return to price stability while achieving a soft landing. We don't know whether rate hike will lead to a recession, which is influenced by many factors.<b>If monetary policy is to be more restrictive for longer, the likelihood of a soft landing is also reduced</b>。 But our aim is to reduce inflation. Follow up: Is the job vacancy rate still an important indicator to consider the labor market</p><p><b>Yes</b>。 The current job vacancy rate is still 2: 1, which is very good ways to measure the tightness of the labor market. The unemployment rate is generally considered the best labor market indicator in other economic cycles. Both have always had value in measuring the labor market Q4. How to determine the terminal interest rate and what factors will be considered. If you want interest rates to be higher than inflation, what is inflation currently?</p><p><b>I think the Fed needs to raise its real policy rate to positive</b>, thereby putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation. We will observe broad financial conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads, financial credit indexes and so on. We have discussed today's meeting, as well as previous meetings,<b>Need to raise all real interest rates across the interest rate curve to positive values</b>。 This is what SEP predicts. * Q5. You once said that the Federal Reserve's decision-making is a meeting by meeting. Currently looks like the rate hike path is 75 50 25.<b>So will the Fed rate hike 75bp in the next meeting?</b></p><p>The FOMC does make a decision at each meeting, and this time the Fed's decision is 75bp in rate hike. The median rate hike path shown by the SEP is indeed 125bp in rate hike before the end of the year, but the same group of directors believe that 100bp in rate hike is also possible. (As for whether rate hike is 75bp below), we will decide in the next meeting. I can only say that the Fed will reach tightening levels and do so at a very fast rate. Follow up: Why is the Fed insisting on continuing the rate hike despite the risk of recession? Is it because the CPI data shows lack of progress in resolving the inflation problem, or because the labor market is still tight?</p><p>The Fed's expectation is that inflation will fall due to the easing of supply. But while the supply side has eased, inflation has not fallen. Core PCE shows inflation rates of 4.8%, 4.5% and 4.8% at 3-month, 6-month and 12-month annualized rates respectively. This is a good summary of inflation, and it is also the inflation situation we don't want to see. This tells us we need to continue the rate hike until the policy rate reaches what we see fit. * Q6. How do we understand that inflation has not returned to 2% until 2025 in SEP, but the dot plot shows that interest rate cuts will begin in 2024.<b>Does this mean the Fed can tolerate inflation above 2%?</b></p><p>SEP forecasts core inflation of 2.1% and headline inflation of 2.0% in 2025, which is close to the inflation target,<b>But it is higher than 2%</b>。 Follow up: Why didn't this conference have rate hike 100bp?</p><p>In the last press conference and this press conference, I said that the Fed's decisions will be based on aggregate data. The inflation data in July was unexpectedly low, while the inflation data in August was unexpectedly high. We don't want to overreact to a single data point. We talked before that the core rate has been above 4.5% (Q5 Follow up) We don't need to look at more data to know that inflation is already too high. The FOMC will raise the policy rate to a tighter level and maintain it until we are sure that inflation has disappeared. Q7. You have mentioned a possible sale of MBS. Will the current cooling of the real estate market and the rising mortgage interest rate affect the rate of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on MBS?</p><p>Our original words are that shrinking balance sheet will consider this option when it enters the later stage.<b>But we will not consider it at the moment.</b>Q8. How do you view the problem that global austerity will lead to global economic recession? Will there be international cooperation in this regard?</p><p>Several FOMC colleagues and I have just returned from Basel's meeting on global central banks. We (central banks everywhere) all have our own local goals to accomplish, but at the same time we all keep close contact. We will try our best to take the international economy into account in our forecasts and decisions, but what we do is definitely not perfect. With regard to international cooperation, there is no way to talk about cooperation because there are different interest rate levels and different situations in different places.<b>There is no cooperation between us, but more information sharing and communication.</b>Q9. Why is the economy so strong, and does this mean the Fed needs to set higher terminal rates?</p><p>Yes, the labor market is very strong, but in interest rate sensitive sectors, such as the housing market, we can see the role that rate hike plays: reduced economic activity, downward home prices. Rate hike's interest rate-sensitive consumption, import and export (through exchange rate transmission) all play a role. But again, the economy is very strong, people have savings from COVID-19 accumulation and government transfer payments, and the government has a lot of cash.<b>We believe the economic growth trend is around 1.8%</b>, and the real economy is indeed below trend. Of course, it is possible that the economy will be stronger (than the data suggests), which is a good thing and means that the economy will not suffer a deeper recession. But all we are concerned about is bringing inflation down below 2%. Q10. Is a recession more likely to happen. Is the resulting loss of labor market jobs worth it?</p><p><b>I don't know how likely a recession is</b>。 It is very likely that economic growth will be below the trend for some time, and we are seeing it now. The Fed's expected economic growth this year is 0.2%, which is a very low level, while the expected growth next year is 1.2%, which is also significantly lower than the trend. But this is what we need. People are suffering because of inflation. If we want a stronger labor market, we must first pull down inflation. I also wished there was a lighter way, but there wasn't. So what the Fed needs to do is raise interest rates to tightening levels.<b>Nor have we completely denied the possibility of exchanging less unemployment for lower inflation.</b>Follow up: Because the data is backlooking and monetary policy is lagging, how does the Fed know if the tightening is too drastic?</p><p>It's hard to answer. Q11. How to explain to the public why the labor market must suffer the pain?</p><p>(Che Lulu talks) See the previous FOMC press conferences. Q12. How long will the American people need to experience economic hardship?</p><p>Depends on when inflation goes down. Reiterate why we want to fight inflation. Follow up: What are the financial hardships, such as job losses and rising credit card interest rates.</p><p>Including all these, higher interest rates, slower economic growth and slack labor market will all bring economic suffering, but none of them are as suffering as the suffering caused by persistent inflation. Q13. Existing home sales have declined for the seventh consecutive month, and mortgage interest rates have reached their highest level since 2008. However, demand for loans increased this month, while real estate prices remained stagnant. At the press conference in June, you mentioned that you would reset the real estate market. Can you describe in detail the meaning of \"reset\" and the relevant measures of the Federal Reserve?</p><p>The restart doesn't mean a definitive set of data, just that the U.S. housing market has been through a very hot period. At that time, the purchase price of first-hand house buyers was often 10% higher than the initial bid, and the supply and demand were seriously out of balance, and the price rose too fast. The current slowdown in housing price increases will help housing prices reach a level that is more consistent with other real estate fundamentals such as rents. In the long run, we hope that supply and demand can be balanced-housing prices can rise at a reasonable rate and people can afford houses again. Therefore, I think we need an \"correction\" to achieve this state. In the long run, there are also some problems in the real estate market. For example, it is difficult to find land close to the city now, and it is more difficult for real estate developers to buy land, building materials and workers. But from the perspective of business cycle, this difficulty will help the real estate market reach a better state. Follow up: Will the rate of housing cost price inflation drop?</p><p><b>I think housing cost price inflation will still stay high</b>。 We want it to go down, but not sure when it will happen. We can only make two preparations, and assume that housing costs will remain high. Q14.4. 6% What degree of tightening is?</p><p>If we reach this level, and it is likely, in order to calculate the degree of austerity, we will subtract some kind of inflation predictor from it, and this level should be positive, probably around 1%. I don't know exactly what it will be, but it must be significantly higher than 0. I would also say that the actual rate hike path and forecast of the Federal Reserve may be different, but it must be enough to restore price stability.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Full Text of Fed Resolution review: The Finish Line of Tightening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFull Text of Fed Resolution review: The Finish Line of Tightening\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-22 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The terminal interest rate was raised to more than 4.5%, reflecting the Fed's determination to continue tightening. Although the dot plot is only the expectation of the current period and does not represent the future policy, it still dispels the market's idea of the Fed's rapid shift to easing in the short term.</p><p><b>Mikko's Notes</b></p><p><ul><li>Terminal interest rate<b>It was raised to a level of more than 4.5%, reflecting the Fed's determination to continue tightening</b>。</p><p></li><li>Although the bitplot is only the expectation of the current period and does not represent the future policy, the short-term<b>Still dispelled the market's idea of the Fed's rapid shift to easing</b>。</p><p></li><li><b>Inflation remains the number one priority</b>, Powell directly stated during the Q&A at the press conference that he still maintains his position in Jackson Hole.</p><p></li><li>Before the mid-term elections,<b>The Federal Reserve handed over an extremely \"politically correct\" economic forecast,</b>Only slightly raised the unemployment forecast, still in mind<b>\"Soft landing\"</b>Anticipation.</p><p></li><li>... Can such a low job market and economic growth sacrifice rate be exchanged for inflation that meets the standard? Judging from the statements of most members, they think that their predictions are highly uncertain,<b>May underestimate the upside risks to the unemployment rate</b>。</p><p></li><li>Reporters who asked questions at the press conference were very concerned about when the Fed would stop its rate hike and turn to loose conditions, but Powell offered a mandarin answer of \"listen to what you say, like listening to what you say\".<b>Avoid and refuse to give clear forward guidance</b>。</p><p></li><li>A reporter asked extremely sarcastically, \"Since you said meeting by meeting, will the next meeting be 75bp?\"<b>The side reflects the poor quality of information at the current press conference and the extremely limited policy communication of the Federal Reserve. I can hardly find any valuable incremental information in the launch conference.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>Market reaction</b></p><p>I found out that the price was wrong that day...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f751934d89dd7c949d82f41aeeb03317\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Full Statement</b></p><p>Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation mains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Recent economic indicators suggest modest growth in spending and production. In recent months, job growth has been strong and unemployment has remained low. Inflation remains high, reflecting pandemic-related supply-demand imbalances, rising food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.</p><p>Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risk.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing huge human and economic difficulties. The war and related events are putting additional upward pressure on inflation and weighing on global economic activity. The Committee places high priority on inflation risks.</p><p>The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be approved. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that was issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.</p><p>The committee seeks to achieve full employment and 2% inflation in the long term. In support of these targets, the Committee decided to increase the target range for Federal Funds rate to 3% to 3.25% (75 basis points) and expects to continue to increase the interest rate range. In addition, the Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond, agency debt, and MBS, as outlined in the Plan to Reduce the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet released in May. The Committee is firmly committed to returning inflation to its target of 2%.</p><p>In assessing the approval stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implementations of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as approvate if risk emerge that could impede the attachment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international development.</p><p>When assessing the appropriate position of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook. The Committee will be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if there are risks that may hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives. The committee's assessment will consider a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations, and financial and international developments.</p><p><b>Economic forecasts</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c73a4dcc5fcf604676bf0eab20256c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b658dae5a3a91751339721e530fdb79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is great uncertainty in unemployment forecast and the risk of upward adjustment...</p><p><b>Bitmap</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99efed7d925872793abdd652a9c8adfc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Press conference Q&A</b></p><p>Q1. The Fed will<b>When to Mitigate rate hike</b>, and what factors will be considered when deciding to stop rate hike?</p><p><b>I won't answer your question head-on</b>。 First of all, I want to emphasize that the purpose of the Federal Reserve has not changed since the Jackson Hole meeting. The Fed will keep tightening until inflation subsides. Specifically, in order to bring inflation below 2%, we need 1) economic growth below trend and 2) a balance between supply and demand in the labor market. We have achieved the former, while we still need to work hard on the latter. Therefore, we need to raise the Federal Funds rate to the level of austerity. (About the factors to stop the rate hike) First, we will track whether the economic growth is below the trend, secondly, the labor supply is more balanced, and finally, there is tangible evidence that inflation has dropped to 2%. Regarding interest rate cuts, we will only consider it after inflation has actually dropped to 2%. Q2. How does the Fed consider the effect of (monetary policy) on inflation<b>Time lag?</b></p><p>Monetary policy does have time lag. I think monetary policy transmits financial conditions very quickly, and sometimes financial conditions are ahead of the announcement of monetary policy. Financial conditions can start to affect the real economy very quickly, usually within one to two months. But the transmission of financial conditions to inflation may take some time.<b>We will pay attention to this</b>, which is why I mentioned at the beginning: \"As the monetary stance continues to tighten, we will consider the impact of the overall monetary stance on the economy and inflation, and consider slowing down the rate hike.\" Follow up: Will the Fed always have a linear rate hike, or will it stop rate hike and maintain it for a while to reflect on the impact of monetary policy on the economy?</p><p>It's hard to say what the path of rate hike will be after the Fed. Our aim is to maintain tightening until inflation is over. What you can read from the SEP is the interest rate level that the FOMC governors deem appropriate at this time point, and this will change over time. It is possible that we will keep interest rates at a certain level, but we haven't reached that level yet.<b>I think we have just reached the lower edge of what can be called tightening</b>。 Both the FOMC and my view are that we still need to continue (rate hike). Q3. The unemployment rate for next year in the SEP reached 4.4%. Historically, this level of unemployment has led to a recession.<b>Can this forecast be interpreted as an impossibility of a soft landing by the Fed</b>。 Is it necessary for monetary policy to be so tighter?</p><p>In the SEP, the Federal Reserve predicts a moderate growth in the unemployment rate. This is mainly because the current economic situation is very different from the past. First of all, the number of job vacancies is high compared with the number of job seekers, so unlike in the past, the decline of job vacancies can coexist with a slight increase in unemployment rate. Secondly, long-term inflation expectations are stable. That means it's easier to pull down inflation. Finally, inflation is partly due to supply-side shocks, such as the epidemic, economic unblocking, and the Russia-Ukraine war. At present, there is evidence that the supply shock is showing signs of easing: for example, commodity prices are beginning to fall. We have always thought it was very challenging to return to price stability while achieving a soft landing. We don't know whether rate hike will lead to a recession, which is influenced by many factors.<b>If monetary policy is to be more restrictive for longer, the likelihood of a soft landing is also reduced</b>。 But our aim is to reduce inflation. Follow up: Is the job vacancy rate still an important indicator to consider the labor market</p><p><b>Yes</b>。 The current job vacancy rate is still 2: 1, which is very good ways to measure the tightness of the labor market. The unemployment rate is generally considered the best labor market indicator in other economic cycles. Both have always had value in measuring the labor market Q4. How to determine the terminal interest rate and what factors will be considered. If you want interest rates to be higher than inflation, what is inflation currently?</p><p><b>I think the Fed needs to raise its real policy rate to positive</b>, thereby putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation. We will observe broad financial conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads, financial credit indexes and so on. We have discussed today's meeting, as well as previous meetings,<b>Need to raise all real interest rates across the interest rate curve to positive values</b>。 This is what SEP predicts. * Q5. You once said that the Federal Reserve's decision-making is a meeting by meeting. Currently looks like the rate hike path is 75 50 25.<b>So will the Fed rate hike 75bp in the next meeting?</b></p><p>The FOMC does make a decision at each meeting, and this time the Fed's decision is 75bp in rate hike. The median rate hike path shown by the SEP is indeed 125bp in rate hike before the end of the year, but the same group of directors believe that 100bp in rate hike is also possible. (As for whether rate hike is 75bp below), we will decide in the next meeting. I can only say that the Fed will reach tightening levels and do so at a very fast rate. Follow up: Why is the Fed insisting on continuing the rate hike despite the risk of recession? Is it because the CPI data shows lack of progress in resolving the inflation problem, or because the labor market is still tight?</p><p>The Fed's expectation is that inflation will fall due to the easing of supply. But while the supply side has eased, inflation has not fallen. Core PCE shows inflation rates of 4.8%, 4.5% and 4.8% at 3-month, 6-month and 12-month annualized rates respectively. This is a good summary of inflation, and it is also the inflation situation we don't want to see. This tells us we need to continue the rate hike until the policy rate reaches what we see fit. * Q6. How do we understand that inflation has not returned to 2% until 2025 in SEP, but the dot plot shows that interest rate cuts will begin in 2024.<b>Does this mean the Fed can tolerate inflation above 2%?</b></p><p>SEP forecasts core inflation of 2.1% and headline inflation of 2.0% in 2025, which is close to the inflation target,<b>But it is higher than 2%</b>。 Follow up: Why didn't this conference have rate hike 100bp?</p><p>In the last press conference and this press conference, I said that the Fed's decisions will be based on aggregate data. The inflation data in July was unexpectedly low, while the inflation data in August was unexpectedly high. We don't want to overreact to a single data point. We talked before that the core rate has been above 4.5% (Q5 Follow up) We don't need to look at more data to know that inflation is already too high. The FOMC will raise the policy rate to a tighter level and maintain it until we are sure that inflation has disappeared. Q7. You have mentioned a possible sale of MBS. Will the current cooling of the real estate market and the rising mortgage interest rate affect the rate of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet on MBS?</p><p>Our original words are that shrinking balance sheet will consider this option when it enters the later stage.<b>But we will not consider it at the moment.</b>Q8. How do you view the problem that global austerity will lead to global economic recession? Will there be international cooperation in this regard?</p><p>Several FOMC colleagues and I have just returned from Basel's meeting on global central banks. We (central banks everywhere) all have our own local goals to accomplish, but at the same time we all keep close contact. We will try our best to take the international economy into account in our forecasts and decisions, but what we do is definitely not perfect. With regard to international cooperation, there is no way to talk about cooperation because there are different interest rate levels and different situations in different places.<b>There is no cooperation between us, but more information sharing and communication.</b>Q9. Why is the economy so strong, and does this mean the Fed needs to set higher terminal rates?</p><p>Yes, the labor market is very strong, but in interest rate sensitive sectors, such as the housing market, we can see the role that rate hike plays: reduced economic activity, downward home prices. Rate hike's interest rate-sensitive consumption, import and export (through exchange rate transmission) all play a role. But again, the economy is very strong, people have savings from COVID-19 accumulation and government transfer payments, and the government has a lot of cash.<b>We believe the economic growth trend is around 1.8%</b>, and the real economy is indeed below trend. Of course, it is possible that the economy will be stronger (than the data suggests), which is a good thing and means that the economy will not suffer a deeper recession. But all we are concerned about is bringing inflation down below 2%. Q10. Is a recession more likely to happen. Is the resulting loss of labor market jobs worth it?</p><p><b>I don't know how likely a recession is</b>。 It is very likely that economic growth will be below the trend for some time, and we are seeing it now. The Fed's expected economic growth this year is 0.2%, which is a very low level, while the expected growth next year is 1.2%, which is also significantly lower than the trend. But this is what we need. People are suffering because of inflation. If we want a stronger labor market, we must first pull down inflation. I also wished there was a lighter way, but there wasn't. So what the Fed needs to do is raise interest rates to tightening levels.<b>Nor have we completely denied the possibility of exchanging less unemployment for lower inflation.</b>Follow up: Because the data is backlooking and monetary policy is lagging, how does the Fed know if the tightening is too drastic?</p><p>It's hard to answer. Q11. How to explain to the public why the labor market must suffer the pain?</p><p>(Che Lulu talks) See the previous FOMC press conferences. Q12. How long will the American people need to experience economic hardship?</p><p>Depends on when inflation goes down. Reiterate why we want to fight inflation. Follow up: What are the financial hardships, such as job losses and rising credit card interest rates.</p><p>Including all these, higher interest rates, slower economic growth and slack labor market will all bring economic suffering, but none of them are as suffering as the suffering caused by persistent inflation. Q13. Existing home sales have declined for the seventh consecutive month, and mortgage interest rates have reached their highest level since 2008. However, demand for loans increased this month, while real estate prices remained stagnant. At the press conference in June, you mentioned that you would reset the real estate market. Can you describe in detail the meaning of \"reset\" and the relevant measures of the Federal Reserve?</p><p>The restart doesn't mean a definitive set of data, just that the U.S. housing market has been through a very hot period. At that time, the purchase price of first-hand house buyers was often 10% higher than the initial bid, and the supply and demand were seriously out of balance, and the price rose too fast. The current slowdown in housing price increases will help housing prices reach a level that is more consistent with other real estate fundamentals such as rents. In the long run, we hope that supply and demand can be balanced-housing prices can rise at a reasonable rate and people can afford houses again. Therefore, I think we need an \"correction\" to achieve this state. In the long run, there are also some problems in the real estate market. For example, it is difficult to find land close to the city now, and it is more difficult for real estate developers to buy land, building materials and workers. But from the perspective of business cycle, this difficulty will help the real estate market reach a better state. Follow up: Will the rate of housing cost price inflation drop?</p><p><b>I think housing cost price inflation will still stay high</b>。 We want it to go down, but not sure when it will happen. We can only make two preparations, and assume that housing costs will remain high. Q14.4. 6% What degree of tightening is?</p><p>If we reach this level, and it is likely, in order to calculate the degree of austerity, we will subtract some kind of inflation predictor from it, and this level should be positive, probably around 1%. I don't know exactly what it will be, but it must be significantly higher than 0. I would also say that the actual rate hike path and forecast of the Federal Reserve may be different, but it must be enough to restore price stability.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670882\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670882","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155005906","content_text":"终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。Mikko的笔记终端利率上调至超过4.5%的水平，体现联储持续紧缩的决心。虽然点阵图只是当期的预期而不代表未来的政策，但短期依旧打消了市场对联储快速转向宽松的念头。通胀仍然是第一要务，鲍威尔发布会问答时直接表态目前依然维持自己在杰克逊霍尔时的立场。在中期选举以前，联储交出了一份极为“政治正确”的经济预测，仅小幅上调了失业预测，仍然心怀“软着陆”预期。……如此低的就业市场和经济增长牺牲率就能换到达标的通胀水平吗？从多数委员的表态来看，他们认为自己的预测有很大的不确定性，或有可能低估了失业率的上行风险。发布会提问的记者非常关注联储何时停止加息以及转向宽松的条件，但鲍威尔祭出了“听君一席话，如听一席话”式的官话回答，回避并拒绝给出明确的前瞻指引。一位记者极为讽刺地问了“既然你说meeting by meeting，那下一个meeting是不是75bp？”的问题，侧面反映了当前发布会信息量的低劣质量以及联储极为受限的政策沟通。我几乎无法在发布会中找到什么有价值的增量信息。市场反应当天就发现涨错了……声明全文Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.最近的经济指标表明支出和生产温和增长。近几个月来，就业增长强劲，失业率一直保持在低位。通货膨胀率仍然居高不下，反映出与疫情有关的供需失衡、粮食和能源价格上涨以及更广泛的价格压力。Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.俄乌冲突正在造成巨大的人类和经济困难。战争和相关事件正在给通货膨胀带来额外的上行压力，并给全球经济活动带来了压力。委员会高度重视通货膨胀风险。The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.委员会寻求在长期实现充分就业和2%的通货膨胀率。为了支持这些目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间范围提高到3%至3.25%（75个基点），并预计将继续提高利率区间。此外，委员会将继续减少其持有的国债、机构债务和MBS，如5月份发布的《缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划》所述。委员会坚定地致力于将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测新进信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括公共卫生、劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的读数。经济预测失业预测有极大不确定性与上调风险……点阵图发布会Q&AQ1. 美联储将何时减缓加息，并在决定停止加息时会考虑哪些因素？我不会正面回答你的问题。（车轱辘话）首先我要强调美联储的宗旨自Jackson Hole会议以来没有变化。美联储会保持紧缩直至通胀消弭。具体来说，为了将通胀降至2%以下，我们需要1）经济增长低于趋势，2）劳动力市场供需平衡。前者我们已经达到，而后者我们仍需努力。因此我们需要将联邦基金利率提升至紧缩的水平。（关于停止加息的因素）首先我们会跟踪经济增长是否在趋势之下，其次劳动力供给更加平衡，最后有切实证据表明通胀降低至2%。关于降息，我们只有在通胀切实降低至2%后才会考虑。Q2.美联储如何考虑（货币政策）对于通胀效果的时滞性？货币政策的确有时滞性。我认为货币政策对金融状况的传导十分迅速，有时金融状况还会领先货币政策的公布。金融状况会很快开始影响实体经济，通常在一到两个月之内。但是金融状况对通胀的传导可能需要一定时间。我们会注意这一点，这也是为什么在开场时我提到：“随着货币立场继续收紧，我们会考虑整体货币立场对经济与通胀的影响，并考虑减缓加息。”Follow up：美联储会一直线性加息，还是会停止加息并保持一段时间，以反思货币政策对经济的影响？很难说美联储之后的加息路径如何。（车轱辘话）我们的宗旨是保持紧缩直至通胀消弭。从SEP中你可以读到的是FOMC理事们在这个时间节点认为合适的利率水平，而这会随时间变化而变化。我们有可能会维持利率在某一水平，但我们目前还没有达到该水平。我认为我们目前刚刚达到能称之紧缩水平的下沿。FOMC与我的观点都是我们还需要继续（加息）。Q3.SEP中明年的失业率达到了4.4%。历史上来说这一水平的失业率都会导致经济衰退。是否可以把这一预测理解为美联储不可能达成软着陆。货币政策是否有必要如此紧缩？SEP中，美联储预测失业率会有适中（moderate）的增长。这主要是目前的经济状况与过去迥异。首先岗位空缺相较求职者数量很高，因此与过去不同，岗位空缺的下降可以与失业率小幅上升并存。其次长期通胀预期稳定。这意味着拉低通胀更加轻松。最后，通胀部分是由于供给侧冲击，比如疫情、经济解封以及俄乌战争。而目前有证据表明供给冲击有缓解的迹象：比如商品价格开始下降。我们一直认为恢复价格稳定的同时达成软着陆非常具有挑战性。我们不知道加息是否会导致经济衰退，受多种因素影响。如果货币政策要紧缩更久（more restrictive for longer），软着陆的可能也会降低。但是我们的宗旨是降低通胀。Follow up：职位空缺率是否仍是考虑劳动力市场的重要指标是的。目前职位空缺率仍是2：1，是衡量劳动力市场松紧度非常好的指标（very good ways）。在其他经济周期中失业率一般被认为是最好的劳动力市场指标。两者在衡量劳动力市场方面一直具有价值（have value）Q4.如何决定终端利率，会考虑哪些因素。如果希望利率高于通胀，目前通胀是多少？我认为美联储需要将实际政策利率提升到正值，从而对通胀产生有意义的拉低压力。我们会观察广义金融状况，比如利率，信用利差，金融信用指数等等。我们今天的会议，以及之前的会议都讨论过，需要将整个利率曲线的所有实际利率都提升至正值。SEP所预测的即是如此。*Q5.您曾说美联储的决策是一会一决策（meeting by meeting）。目前看起来加息路径是75 50 25。那么在下一场会议中美联储会加息75bp嘛？FOMC的确在每场会议做一个决策，本次美联储的决策即加息75bp。SEP显示的加息路径中值的确是年底前再加息125bp，但同样一群理事认为再加息100bp也是可能的。（至于下面是否加息75bp），我们会在下一场会议中决定。我只能说美联储会达到紧缩水平，并以很快的速率达成。Follow up：为什么美联储不顾衰退风险，坚持继续加息（frontload），是由于CPI数据显示通胀问题的解决进度堪忧（lack of progress），还是因为劳动力市场仍然紧张？美联储的预期是由于供给的缓和，通胀会下降。但是虽然供给端有所缓解，但通胀没有下降。核心PCE显示按3个月，6个月以及12个月的年化率，通胀率分别为4.8%，4.5%与4.8%。这是对通胀很好的总结，也是我们不希望看见的通胀情况。这告诉我们需要继续加息，直到政策利率达到我们认为合适的水平。*Q6.我们如何理解在SEP中通胀直到2025仍未返回2%，但点阵图显示2024年就会开始降息。这是否意味着美联储可以容忍高于2%的通胀率？SEP预测的2025年核心通胀为2.1%，总体通胀为2.0%，与通胀目标相差无几，但确实高于2%。Follow up：为什么这次会议没有加息100bp？在上次与这次新闻发布会中，我都说过美联储的决策将基于总体的数据。在7月通胀的数据出乎意料地低，而8月的通胀数据则出乎意料地高。我们不希望对单个数据点做过激反应。我们之前讲过核心利率一直高于4.5%（Q5 Follow up）我们不需要看更多数据就知道通胀已经太高了。而FOMC将提升政策利率至紧缩水平并维持，直至我们确信通胀已经消弭。Q7.你曾提到可能会出售MBS。当前房地产市场降温、按揭贷款利率上行的情况是否会影响美联储在MBS方面缩表的速率？我们的原话是缩表进入后期后会考虑这一选项，但是目前我们不会考虑。Q8.如何看待全球紧缩会导致全球经济衰退的问题。在这方面是否会有国际合作？我与FOMC几位同事刚刚从Basel关于全球央行的会议回来。我们（各地央行）都有各自的本土目标需要完成，但同时都保持着密切的联系。我们做的预测与决策会尽量将国际经济纳入考量范围，但我们做的一定不够完美。关于国际合作，由于各地有不同的利率水平，情况不同，合作无从谈起。我们没有合作，更多是信息共享与交流。Q9.为什么经济这么强劲，这是否意味着美联储需要设定更高的终端利率？是的，劳动力市场非常强劲，但在利率敏感的行业，如房地产市场，我们可以看到加息发挥的作用：经济活动减少，房价下行。加息对于利率敏感的消费，进出口（通过汇率传导）都有所作用。但是同样，经济十分强劲，人们有来自新冠积累以及政府转移支付的储蓄，政府现金很多。我们认为的经济增长趋势在1.8%左右，而实际经济的确低于趋势。当然有可能经济（比数据显示的）更加强劲，这是好事，意味着经济不会遭受更严重的衰退。但是我们关注的只有将通胀拉低至低于2%。Q10.衰退是否更有可能发生了。因此导致的劳动力市场工作流失是否值得？我不知道衰退的可能性几何。非常可能的是经济增长在一段时间内会在趋势之下，而我们现在也看到了。美联储预期的今年经济增长为0.2%，是很低的水平，而明年预期的增长为1.2%，也显著低于趋势。但是这是我们需要的。人们正因为通胀而遭受苦难。如果我们想要一个更强劲的劳动力市场，必须先拉低通胀。我也希望有更加轻松的方式，但没有。所以美联储需要做的是提升利率至紧缩水平。我们也还没有完全否定以较少的失业率上升换取通胀的下降的可能性。Follow up：由于数据后视，而货币政策也有时滞，美联储如何知道紧缩是否过激？很难回答。Q11.如何向公众解释为什么劳动力市场必须遭受苦难（suffer the pain）？（车轱辘话）见前几次FOMC新闻发布会。Q12.美国人民需要经历多长时间的经济苦难？取决于通胀什么时候下降。重申为什么要抗击通胀。Follow up：有哪些经济上的苦难，比如工作流失，信用卡利率上升。包含所有这些，更高的利率，经济增长减缓，劳动力市场松弛都会带来经济上的苦难，但都不及通胀久居不下所带来的苦难。Q13.成屋销售已经第7个月连续下降，按揭贷款利率也达到了自2008年以来的高点。然而本月贷款需求增加，而房地产价格仍然久居不下。在6月份的新闻发布会中您提到要重启（reset）房地产市场，是否可以详细描述“重启”的含义，以及美联储相关的措施。重启并不是指一套明确的数据，只是说美国房地产市场经历了一段非常火热的时期。那时一手房购房者的购买价常常比开始的出价高10%，供需严重失衡，价格上涨过快。目前房屋价格上涨的减缓会帮助房屋价格达到一个与租金等其他房地产基本面更加相符的水平。长期来说，我们希望供需能够平衡——房屋价格可以以合理的速率上升，人们也可以再次买得起房。因此我认为我们需要一个“调整”（correction）来达到这一状态。长期来说房地产市场也有一些问题，比如现在很难找到离城市近的土地，房产商也更难买到土地、建房材料以及工人。但从商业周期的角度，这种困难会帮助房地产市场达到一个更好的状态。Follow up：住房成本价格通胀率是否会下降？我认为住房成本价格通胀率仍然会保持高位。我们希望它下降，但是不确定何时会发生。我们只能做两手准备，对于住房成本假设它会保持在高位。Q14.4.6%是何种紧缩程度？如果我们达到了这一水平，而这是可能的（likely），为了计算紧缩程度，我们会将其减去某种通胀的预测指标，而这一水平应当为正，并可能大概在1%左右。我也不知道具体会是多少，但一定是大幅高于0的。我还要说的是美联储的实际加息路径和预测可能会不同，但一定足以恢复价格稳定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932148677,"gmtCreate":1662905244099,"gmtModify":1676537160618,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932148677","repostId":"1156732473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156732473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662864340,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156732473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There is another \"gold sweeping fever\"! \"Golden and difficult summer\", the giants have taken action one after another!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156732473","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。尽管美元的持续走强给黄金带来不小压力，但更喜欢逆势布局的外资巨头们，却已开始出手，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What does the move of foreign giants mean? According to industry analysts, the pessimistic expectations of the current gold market are being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future. Although the continued strength of the US dollar has put a lot of pressure on gold, foreign giants who prefer to go against the trend have begun to take action and significantly increase their positions in gold ETFs.</p><p>According to the latest semi-annual report of the fund, the private equity products of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, appeared in the list of the top ten holders of several gold ETFs. According to the data, as of the end of June this year, Bridgewater (China) Investment Management Co., Ltd. held a total of 214 million shares of Bosera Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, with a market value of 814 million yuan.</p><p>What does the move of foreign giants mean? According to industry analysts, the pessimistic expectations of the current gold market are being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future.</p><p><b>Major institutions are buying gold one after another</b></p><p>The semi-annual report of Bosera Gold ETF shows that as of the end of the first half of the year, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No. 3, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No. 1 and Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No. 2 held 46.6248 million shares, 9.2942 million shares and 8.7106 million shares of the fund respectively, ranking their second, fifth and sixth largest holders.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e9ebb320e0c5cf942975e5d8f6409\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The above three funds of Bridgewater China also appeared in the list of the top ten holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d923e513e32f394e52f117fd17238ef7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f132a9df386c1583a50ba16302ccabe1\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, in addition to Bridgewater Fund, many domestic and foreign institutions are also \"sweeping\" gold ETFs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>At the same time, it appeared in Bosera Gold ETF and Huaan Gold Easy ETF, holding 4.4452 million shares and 21.1 million shares of these two ETFs respectively.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>He Guosheng Securities appeared in Bosera Gold ETF at the same time, holding a total of 25.67 million shares; Xingquan Preferred Enterprising Three-month Holding Period Hybrid Fund of Funds and Huashang Jiayue Steady Pension Target One-year Holding Period Hybrid Sponsored Fund of Funds (FOF) are the ninth and tenth largest holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF.</p><p>Public information shows that since the beginning of this year, the above three gold ETFs have all achieved positive returns. Especially during the first quarter, with the volatility of the global stock market and commodity market, the safe-haven function of gold became prominent, and gold ETFs also achieved good returns.</p><p><b>Gold prices fall into short-term downturn</b></p><p>It is worth noting that in the context of continued rise in inflation, European and American central banks generally adopt more aggressive monetary policies to respond.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June this year saw a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, setting the largest single rate hike in the past 30 years, the dot plot showed that the subsequent rate hike path was more radical. Superimposed on the Fed's official shrinking balance sheet in June, the real interest rate in the United States rebounded sharply in the second quarter, causing international gold prices to continue to weaken under pressure in the second quarter.</p><p>In this regard, the World Gold Council used \"a difficult summer for gold\" to describe the performance of gold prices in the past month. Statistics from the World Gold Council show that as of August, gold prices fell month-on-month, falling 2% to US $1,715.9 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The rebound that began in mid-July lost momentum again in mid-August after failing to break through the resistance level of $1,800/oz.</p><p>The data also shows that from the perspective of overall positions, global gold ETFs flowed out of 51 tons in August, which is consistent with the performance of gold prices. This is also the fourth consecutive month of gold ETFs outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91085dcbf94672dadd6ad1d385fbd9ec\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the analysis of the World Gold Council, this performance comes against the background of rising yields and a strengthening of the US dollar. The reason behind it is precisely because the Federal Reserve has reiterated its commitment to further tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>Allocation on dips may be a good strategy</b></p><p>On the evening of September 8, Beijing time, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting and announced that it would raise the three key interest rates by 75 basis points. The adjusted interest rates will take effect on September 14. The European Central Bank said that the current inflation rate is still too high and further rate hike is expected to curb inflation.</p><p>In this regard, Huatai Futures' research report stated that although the European Central Bank's rate hike as scheduled and the hawkish attitude of Federal Reserve officials has not changed, it can be seen from the actions of well-known funds such as Bridgewater to increase their holdings of gold ETFs. There is still demand for the allocation of gold assets, and gold can be appropriately allocated on dips.</p><p>Statistics from the World Gold Council show that two-thirds of the cumulative inflows of gold ETFs between January and April this year have been offset by recent outflows. Despite this, the World Gold Council still believes that gold trading volume is expected to rebound in September.</p><p>\"In August, the trading volume of gold fell to $109 billion per day, well below the July level ($149 billion) and the monthly average in the second quarter ($126 billion). As market activity picks up, we will continue to pay attention to futures positions and ETF flows.\" The World Gold Council said that these two indicators are key indicators for watching gold market sentiment. They also predict that with the influence of seasonal factors, consumer demand will increase, which may also increase the trading level of gold.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">Minsheng Bank</a>Tang Xiangbin, an analyst at the Financial Market Department, believes that in the short term, the international gold price is still suppressed by the strength of the US dollar. At present, the international gold price is still in a state of bottom shock and is expected to gradually rebound after the fourth quarter. \"It is expected that before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, the international gold price will still fluctuate in the bottom range of US $1,680 to US $1,740 per ounce. After the boots of the September interest rate meeting landed, it is expected that the international gold price will rebound. It is recommended that the international gold price will enter the market when it comes to pressure and falls back below $1,720.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There is another \"gold sweeping fever\"! \"Golden and difficult summer\", the giants have taken action one after another!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere is another \"gold sweeping fever\"! \"Golden and difficult summer\", the giants have taken action one after another!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-11 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What does the move of foreign giants mean? According to industry analysts, the pessimistic expectations of the current gold market are being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future. Although the continued strength of the US dollar has put a lot of pressure on gold, foreign giants who prefer to go against the trend have begun to take action and significantly increase their positions in gold ETFs.</p><p>According to the latest semi-annual report of the fund, the private equity products of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, appeared in the list of the top ten holders of several gold ETFs. According to the data, as of the end of June this year, Bridgewater (China) Investment Management Co., Ltd. held a total of 214 million shares of Bosera Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, with a market value of 814 million yuan.</p><p>What does the move of foreign giants mean? According to industry analysts, the pessimistic expectations of the current gold market are being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future.</p><p><b>Major institutions are buying gold one after another</b></p><p>The semi-annual report of Bosera Gold ETF shows that as of the end of the first half of the year, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No. 3, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No. 1 and Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No. 2 held 46.6248 million shares, 9.2942 million shares and 8.7106 million shares of the fund respectively, ranking their second, fifth and sixth largest holders.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e9ebb320e0c5cf942975e5d8f6409\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The above three funds of Bridgewater China also appeared in the list of the top ten holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d923e513e32f394e52f117fd17238ef7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f132a9df386c1583a50ba16302ccabe1\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, in addition to Bridgewater Fund, many domestic and foreign institutions are also \"sweeping\" gold ETFs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>At the same time, it appeared in Bosera Gold ETF and Huaan Gold Easy ETF, holding 4.4452 million shares and 21.1 million shares of these two ETFs respectively.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>He Guosheng Securities appeared in Bosera Gold ETF at the same time, holding a total of 25.67 million shares; Xingquan Preferred Enterprising Three-month Holding Period Hybrid Fund of Funds and Huashang Jiayue Steady Pension Target One-year Holding Period Hybrid Sponsored Fund of Funds (FOF) are the ninth and tenth largest holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF.</p><p>Public information shows that since the beginning of this year, the above three gold ETFs have all achieved positive returns. Especially during the first quarter, with the volatility of the global stock market and commodity market, the safe-haven function of gold became prominent, and gold ETFs also achieved good returns.</p><p><b>Gold prices fall into short-term downturn</b></p><p>It is worth noting that in the context of continued rise in inflation, European and American central banks generally adopt more aggressive monetary policies to respond.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June this year saw a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points, setting the largest single rate hike in the past 30 years, the dot plot showed that the subsequent rate hike path was more radical. Superimposed on the Fed's official shrinking balance sheet in June, the real interest rate in the United States rebounded sharply in the second quarter, causing international gold prices to continue to weaken under pressure in the second quarter.</p><p>In this regard, the World Gold Council used \"a difficult summer for gold\" to describe the performance of gold prices in the past month. Statistics from the World Gold Council show that as of August, gold prices fell month-on-month, falling 2% to US $1,715.9 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The rebound that began in mid-July lost momentum again in mid-August after failing to break through the resistance level of $1,800/oz.</p><p>The data also shows that from the perspective of overall positions, global gold ETFs flowed out of 51 tons in August, which is consistent with the performance of gold prices. This is also the fourth consecutive month of gold ETFs outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91085dcbf94672dadd6ad1d385fbd9ec\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the analysis of the World Gold Council, this performance comes against the background of rising yields and a strengthening of the US dollar. The reason behind it is precisely because the Federal Reserve has reiterated its commitment to further tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>Allocation on dips may be a good strategy</b></p><p>On the evening of September 8, Beijing time, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting and announced that it would raise the three key interest rates by 75 basis points. The adjusted interest rates will take effect on September 14. The European Central Bank said that the current inflation rate is still too high and further rate hike is expected to curb inflation.</p><p>In this regard, Huatai Futures' research report stated that although the European Central Bank's rate hike as scheduled and the hawkish attitude of Federal Reserve officials has not changed, it can be seen from the actions of well-known funds such as Bridgewater to increase their holdings of gold ETFs. There is still demand for the allocation of gold assets, and gold can be appropriately allocated on dips.</p><p>Statistics from the World Gold Council show that two-thirds of the cumulative inflows of gold ETFs between January and April this year have been offset by recent outflows. Despite this, the World Gold Council still believes that gold trading volume is expected to rebound in September.</p><p>\"In August, the trading volume of gold fell to $109 billion per day, well below the July level ($149 billion) and the monthly average in the second quarter ($126 billion). As market activity picks up, we will continue to pay attention to futures positions and ETF flows.\" The World Gold Council said that these two indicators are key indicators for watching gold market sentiment. They also predict that with the influence of seasonal factors, consumer demand will increase, which may also increase the trading level of gold.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">Minsheng Bank</a>Tang Xiangbin, an analyst at the Financial Market Department, believes that in the short term, the international gold price is still suppressed by the strength of the US dollar. At present, the international gold price is still in a state of bottom shock and is expected to gradually rebound after the fourth quarter. \"It is expected that before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, the international gold price will still fluctuate in the bottom range of US $1,680 to US $1,740 per ounce. After the boots of the September interest rate meeting landed, it is expected that the international gold price will rebound. It is recommended that the international gold price will enter the market when it comes to pressure and falls back below $1,720.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670050\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670050","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156732473","content_text":"外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。尽管美元的持续走强给黄金带来不小压力，但更喜欢逆势布局的外资巨头们，却已开始出手，大幅加仓黄金ETF。根据最新披露的基金半年报，全球最大对冲基金桥水旗下私募产品现身多只黄金ETF的前十大持有人名单。数据显示，截至今年6月底，桥水（中国）投资管理有限公司持有博时黄金ETF、华安黄金易ETF和易方达黄金ETF合计2.14亿份，持有市值达8.14亿元。外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。各大机构纷纷出手购金博时黄金ETF半年报显示，截至上半年末，桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金三号、桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金一号和桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金二号分别持有该基金4662.48万份、929.42万份和871.06万份，分列其第二、第五和第六大持有人。桥水中国的上述3只基金也出现在华安黄金易ETF和易方达黄金ETF的十大持有人名单中。实际上，除了桥水基金，多家内外资机构也在“扫货”黄金ETF。巴克莱银行同时现身博时黄金ETF和华安黄金易ETF，对这两只ETF的持有份额分别为444.52万份和2110万份。此外，中信证券、广发证券、华泰证券和国盛证券同时现身博时黄金ETF，合计持有2567万份；兴全优选进取三个月持有期混合型基金中基金和华商嘉悦稳健养老目标一年持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF)则分列华安黄金易ETF第九和第十大持有人。公开资料显示，今年以来，上述3只黄金ETF均取得正收益。尤其是第一季度期间，伴随着全球股市及商品市场的震荡，黄金的避险功能凸显，黄金ETF也因此获得不错的收益。金价短期陷入低迷值得关注的是，在通胀持续走高的背景下，欧美央行普遍采取更为激进的货币政策来应对。今年6月美联储议息会议大幅加息 75个基点，创下近30年以来最大幅度的单次加息后，点阵图显示后续加息路径较为激进，叠加美联储6月正式开启缩表，美国实际利率在二季度出现大幅回升，导致国际金价二季度持续承压走弱。对此，世界黄金协会用“黄金艰难的夏天”来形容刚刚过去的这1个月的金价表现。来自世界黄金协会的统计显示，截至8月，金价环比走低，下跌2%至1715.9美元/盎司，已是连续第5个月下跌。而自7月中旬开始的反弹在未能突破1800美元/盎司的阻力位后，在8月中旬再度失去动力。数据同时显示，从整体持仓看，8月全球黄金ETF流出51吨，与金价表现相一致，这也是黄金ETF连续第4个月出现外流。世界黄金协会分析认为，这一表现是在收益率持续上升和美元走强的背景下出现的，背后原因正是因为美联储重申了其进一步收紧货币政策的承诺。逢低配置或是良策北京时间9月8日晚，欧洲央行召开货币政策会议，宣布将三大关键利率上调75个基点，调整后的利率将于9月14日生效。欧洲央行表示，当前通胀率仍过高，预计后续将进一步加息以抑制通胀。对此，华泰期货的研报称，虽然欧洲央行如期加息，美联储官员的鹰派态度也不曾改变，但从桥水等知名基金大举增持黄金ETF的动作可以看出，目前机构对于黄金资产的配置仍存需求，黄金可适当逢低多配。世界黄金协会的统计显示，今年1至4月份之间黄金ETF累计流入量的三分之二已被近期的流出相抵消。尽管如此，世界黄金协会仍认为，黄金交易量有望在9月份出现回升。“在8月，黄金的交易量降至每天1090亿美元，远低于7月份的水平（1490亿美元）和第二季度的月均值（1260亿美元）。随着市场活动的回升，我们将继续关注期货头寸和ETF流量。”世界黄金协会表示，这两个指标是观察黄金市场情绪的关键指标。他们也预计，随着季节性因素的影响，将导致消费者需求增加，也可能使得黄金的交易水平提升。民生银行金融市场部分析师汤湘滨认为，短期看国际金价依然受美元强势的压制，目前国际金价还处于底部震荡状态，四季度后有望逐步反弹。“预计在美联储9月议息会议前，国际金价仍会在每盎司1680美元至1740美元这一底部区间震荡。而在9月议息会议靴子落地后，预计国际金价将转向反弹，建议在国际金价承压回落至1720美元下方时入场。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938573900,"gmtCreate":1662643274300,"gmtModify":1676537107986,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581663680495191","idStr":"3581663680495191"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938573900","repostId":"1195538213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195538213","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1662643000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195538213?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Can iPhone 14 bring Apple back to a market value of 3 trillion?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195538213","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"苹果内部芯片为公司的利润空间提供了更大的灵活性。北京时间9月8日凌晨，苹果召开新品发布会，iPhone 14如期而至。9月7日苹果股价小幅收涨0.93%至155.96美元，市值2.51万亿美元。202","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In-house chips provide more flexibility for the company's profit margins. In the early morning of September 8, Beijing time, Apple held a new product launch conference, and the iPhone 14 arrived as scheduled. On September 7, Apple's stock price closed slightly up 0.93% to US $155.96, with a market value of US $2.51 trillion.</p><p>On January 3, 2022, Apple's market value once exceeded US $3 trillion, but this performance of breaking the limit did not last-since the beginning of the year, Apple's stock price has fallen by 11.81%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by 16.50% during the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816e3749b86d8f7b10e36a184474c3a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple Stock Price Chart</p><p>The iPhone 14 is critical to Apple because one of the challenges the company is facing is how the broad economic environment will affect demand for iPhones and other products in the future-rising interest rates, rising fuel costs, supply chain pressures this year and the soaring dollar have put technology companies including Apple to the test.</p><p>Specific to iPhone products, it is an intersection. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a report before the new product launch conference that globally, the weak macro economy will curb consumer demand for new products. Apple's 220 million iPhone units in fiscal year 2023 Shipments may be a lower level; However, in the key Chinese market, about 30% of iPhone consumers are in the window of the product upgrade cycle, and consumers of potential Pro/Pro Max series products are expected to continue to push up the average selling price of iPhone.</p><p>Before the launch conference in September, rumors about the price increase of iPhone 14 were endless. As a result, the iPhone 14 will start at $799, the iPhone 14 Plus will start at $899, and the iPhone 14 Pro will start at $999. Daniel Ives told Barron's that the iPhone maintaining its selling price is a \"shocking thing\", arguing that Apple's internal chips provide more flexibility for the company's profit margins.</p><p>In addition to the iPhone, the event also launched new products from the Apple Watch and AirPods Pro. However, the Apple Car, which the market has been looking forward to for several years, is still a moon in the mirror and a flower in the water.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9405a7922d06b5ebe5269bd99e9e3c71\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>iPhone Hengqiang, where is the margin?</b></p><p>The iPhone is the major of Apple's revenue<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>。 In a report in April this year, Barron's pointed out that the company's stock price actually depends on the annual sales of iPhone.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple achieved revenue of US $365.817 billion and net profit of US $94.7 billion; Among them, iPhone revenue increased by 39% year-on-year to US $191.973 billion, accounting for 52.48% of revenue.</p><p>This helped Apple get off to a perfect start at the beginning of 2022. On January 3, Apple's market value briefly exceeded $3 trillion, becoming the first public company in history to break through this barrier. \"Barron's Weekly\" said that Apple's stock price rose at the beginning of the year because people underestimated the strong demand for the iPhone 13. Wall Street once believed that the iPhone 13 was not as important as the iPhone 12 because the latter was Apple's first 5G product; But demand for new handsets in China has been at historically high levels, setting the stage for the company's potential profitability.</p><p>Apple's third quarterly report for fiscal year 2022 shows that in the nine months ending June 25, 2022, iPhone products achieved revenue of US $162.863 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%; Revenue accounted for 53.54%, slightly narrowed from 54.20% in the same period last year.</p><p>If calculated at this growth rate, the iPhone's revenue performance in fiscal year 2022 cannot surpass that of the previous fiscal year. Therefore, the importance of iPhone 14 is self-evident. Apple's stock price began to decline in April this year, and even fell below $130 on June 16; It once returned to above $170 in August, and then started a downward mode.</p><p>The introduction of new models can often stimulate the buying desire of \"fruit powder\"-for example, some consumers choose to buy new machines directly or trade in old ones for new ones, while others settle for the next best thing and choose to buy the models of the previous year after the price reduction. Compared with the iPhone 13, the iPhone 14 does not introduce disruptive new features in addition to new car accident detection and satellite communications; The biggest highlight is the design of the iPhone 14 Pro, which abandons the previous notch screen, adds Dynamic Island functions, and uses the A16 bionic chip.</p><p>The basis of optimistic assumptions is, on the one hand, that American consumers really love Apple. In an interview with Barron's on Sept. 2, Maurice Klaehne, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, said that as of the second quarter of 2022, the iPhone's market share accounted for more than half of active smartphones in the United States; Over the past four years, the migration of users from Android to iOS has continued to strengthen. \"The new iPhone 14 will help Apple continue to gain share of the U.S. market in the coming quarters,\" Klein said. The collaboration between the iPhone and other products and the entire iOS ecosystem creates value for consumers.</p><p>The United States is Apple's most important market. In fiscal year 2021, the U.S. market achieved revenue of US $133.803 billion, a growth rate of 23%, accounting for 36.58% of revenue.</p><p>During the same period, the revenue of the Chinese market was about half of that of the United States, at US $68.366 billion; But what cannot be ignored is that the revenue in the Chinese market has increased by nearly 70% year-on-year, which is another important reason why the market remains optimistic about Apple. In the first nine months of fiscal year 2022, Apple achieved revenue of US $58.73 billion in the Chinese market, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. Guo Tianxiang, senior analyst at IDC China, said that in the first half of 2022, Apple has occupied 70.5% of the domestic high-end market above US $600.</p><p>If Daniel Ives' analysis is true, 30% or even more Chinese iPhone users have completed the upgrading of their models, and Apple's stock price will most likely be boosted. But accomplishing this goal is not easy. According to IDC statistics, Apple's smartphone market share has stabilized at 10.2%-23.4% in the past two years, and it is currently the third largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. In the field of high-end smartphones where Apple is located, Huawei recently released the Mate 50 series of mobile phones, which obviously provides consumers with new choices.</p><p>According to Barron's Weekly, new products may have a significant impact on the company in the next few quarters, but it is a small probability event that Apple's stock price will skyrocket after the press conference. According to the stock price trend of 21 iPhone release days previously tracked by Dow Jones Market Data, Apple's stock price fell by an average of 0.46% on the end of the conference.</p><p>Apple shares rose slightly by 0.93% to close at $155.96 on September 7.</p><p><b>Apple builds cars, which may not be as practical as Apple Watch</b></p><p>At the press conference on September 8, Apple still didn't mention building a car at all. \"Barron's Weekly\" believes that it is still too early to incorporate Apple's huge market share of car manufacturing into its sales model and reflect it in its valuation.</p><p>However, thanks to Apple's strong market influence and brand appeal, Apple Car has begun to capture the minds of consumers even if it has not been officially announced, designed and produced. On September 2, a report by market research firm Strategic Vision on the willingness of new car buyers to spend showed that 26% of respondents said they would \"definitely consider\" Apple cars when buying a car.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>(TM.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>(HMC.N) is more popular than Apple, 38% and 32%, respectively;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.N.) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.O) ranked fourth and fifth respectively with 21% and 20%. Alexander Edwards, president of the agency, said that what car companies should worry about is that Apple is taking away consumers' love. \"For example, more than 50% of Tesla owners said they would'definitely 'consider future Apple cars.\"</p><p>For Apple, this may be a good thing. After all, based on the stable performance of the iPhone, relying on car manufacturing to get out of the second growth curve does not seem so unrealistic on the consumer side.</p><p>But the actual question is how Apple will build cars. Should you build your own factory and assemble it, or outsource it to an automaker? Do you want to build commercial vehicles or passenger cars? Should we take the pure battery route or the hybrid route? Do you want to do autonomous driving?</p><p>The latest news is that Desi Ujkashevic, an executive who worked at Ford for 31 years, joined Apple as senior director in April this year. Public information shows that during her tenure at Ford, she participated in projects such as Ford Explorer, Lincoln MKC, Lincoln AVIATOR AVIATOR, Ford Escape and Ford Electric Vehicle.</p><p>In contrast to Apple Car, Apple spent nearly 40 minutes introducing the Apple Watch at the press conference (it took roughly an hour to introduce the iPhone). If this indicator is measured loosely, then in the next few quarters, Apple's actions in the field of wearable devices may allow investors to see the possibility of performance growth.</p><p>In addition to the regular upgrades of the Apple Watch Series 8 and the launch of the cheaper Apple Watch SE, one of the biggest highlights of the conference was the birth of the Apple Watch Ultra. This watch, with a starting price of RMB 6,299, uses a combination of 64-bit dual-core S8 chip+W3 wireless chip+U1 chip for outdoor extreme environments, and is equipped with two GPS frequency bands of L1 core and L5, which fully highlights Apple's attributes as a technology company.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple's wearable, smart home and accessories revenue reached US $38.367 billion, exceeding the revenue of Mac and iPad products, and revenue increased by 25% year-on-year. Many market views believe that Apple's wearable devices can increase penetration with the help of the iPhone's huge user base. According to IDC data, global wearable device shipments in 2021 will be 533.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%; Among them, Apple's market share ranks first, reaching 30.3%, Xiaomi and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Ranked second and third with market shares of 10.2% and 9.0%.</p><p>According to Nasdaq statistics, based on Apple's target prices for the next 12 months given by 25 analysts in the past three months, the average target price is $183.12, and the highest and lowest valuations are $220 and $136 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198806e5a050e0fc3613e1a5f4ccb654\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple Target Price Forecast</p><p>Source: NASDAQ</p><p>Credit Suisse believes Apple's broader ecosystem continues to be supported by services and a growing installed base, while the company grapples with supply constraints. Increasing macro uncertainty, inflationary pressures and the repricing of a strong dollar will likely adversely affect product demand and push Wall Street analysts to cut their revenue expectations for Apple. The bank lowered its price target on Apple to $166 from $169 and maintained a neutral rating on the stock.</p><p>Wedbush pointed out that Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>It is the top choice to invest in technology stocks at the end of this year. For Apple, issues related to China and supply chains appear to have peaked, and the focus is now on iPhone 14 production and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can iPhone 14 bring Apple back to a market value of 3 trillion?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan iPhone 14 bring Apple back to a market value of 3 trillion?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-08 21:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In-house chips provide more flexibility for the company's profit margins. In the early morning of September 8, Beijing time, Apple held a new product launch conference, and the iPhone 14 arrived as scheduled. On September 7, Apple's stock price closed slightly up 0.93% to US $155.96, with a market value of US $2.51 trillion.</p><p>On January 3, 2022, Apple's market value once exceeded US $3 trillion, but this performance of breaking the limit did not last-since the beginning of the year, Apple's stock price has fallen by 11.81%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by 16.50% during the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e816e3749b86d8f7b10e36a184474c3a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple Stock Price Chart</p><p>The iPhone 14 is critical to Apple because one of the challenges the company is facing is how the broad economic environment will affect demand for iPhones and other products in the future-rising interest rates, rising fuel costs, supply chain pressures this year and the soaring dollar have put technology companies including Apple to the test.</p><p>Specific to iPhone products, it is an intersection. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a report before the new product launch conference that globally, the weak macro economy will curb consumer demand for new products. Apple's 220 million iPhone units in fiscal year 2023 Shipments may be a lower level; However, in the key Chinese market, about 30% of iPhone consumers are in the window of the product upgrade cycle, and consumers of potential Pro/Pro Max series products are expected to continue to push up the average selling price of iPhone.</p><p>Before the launch conference in September, rumors about the price increase of iPhone 14 were endless. As a result, the iPhone 14 will start at $799, the iPhone 14 Plus will start at $899, and the iPhone 14 Pro will start at $999. Daniel Ives told Barron's that the iPhone maintaining its selling price is a \"shocking thing\", arguing that Apple's internal chips provide more flexibility for the company's profit margins.</p><p>In addition to the iPhone, the event also launched new products from the Apple Watch and AirPods Pro. However, the Apple Car, which the market has been looking forward to for several years, is still a moon in the mirror and a flower in the water.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9405a7922d06b5ebe5269bd99e9e3c71\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>iPhone Hengqiang, where is the margin?</b></p><p>The iPhone is the major of Apple's revenue<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>。 In a report in April this year, Barron's pointed out that the company's stock price actually depends on the annual sales of iPhone.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple achieved revenue of US $365.817 billion and net profit of US $94.7 billion; Among them, iPhone revenue increased by 39% year-on-year to US $191.973 billion, accounting for 52.48% of revenue.</p><p>This helped Apple get off to a perfect start at the beginning of 2022. On January 3, Apple's market value briefly exceeded $3 trillion, becoming the first public company in history to break through this barrier. \"Barron's Weekly\" said that Apple's stock price rose at the beginning of the year because people underestimated the strong demand for the iPhone 13. Wall Street once believed that the iPhone 13 was not as important as the iPhone 12 because the latter was Apple's first 5G product; But demand for new handsets in China has been at historically high levels, setting the stage for the company's potential profitability.</p><p>Apple's third quarterly report for fiscal year 2022 shows that in the nine months ending June 25, 2022, iPhone products achieved revenue of US $162.863 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%; Revenue accounted for 53.54%, slightly narrowed from 54.20% in the same period last year.</p><p>If calculated at this growth rate, the iPhone's revenue performance in fiscal year 2022 cannot surpass that of the previous fiscal year. Therefore, the importance of iPhone 14 is self-evident. Apple's stock price began to decline in April this year, and even fell below $130 on June 16; It once returned to above $170 in August, and then started a downward mode.</p><p>The introduction of new models can often stimulate the buying desire of \"fruit powder\"-for example, some consumers choose to buy new machines directly or trade in old ones for new ones, while others settle for the next best thing and choose to buy the models of the previous year after the price reduction. Compared with the iPhone 13, the iPhone 14 does not introduce disruptive new features in addition to new car accident detection and satellite communications; The biggest highlight is the design of the iPhone 14 Pro, which abandons the previous notch screen, adds Dynamic Island functions, and uses the A16 bionic chip.</p><p>The basis of optimistic assumptions is, on the one hand, that American consumers really love Apple. In an interview with Barron's on Sept. 2, Maurice Klaehne, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, said that as of the second quarter of 2022, the iPhone's market share accounted for more than half of active smartphones in the United States; Over the past four years, the migration of users from Android to iOS has continued to strengthen. \"The new iPhone 14 will help Apple continue to gain share of the U.S. market in the coming quarters,\" Klein said. The collaboration between the iPhone and other products and the entire iOS ecosystem creates value for consumers.</p><p>The United States is Apple's most important market. In fiscal year 2021, the U.S. market achieved revenue of US $133.803 billion, a growth rate of 23%, accounting for 36.58% of revenue.</p><p>During the same period, the revenue of the Chinese market was about half of that of the United States, at US $68.366 billion; But what cannot be ignored is that the revenue in the Chinese market has increased by nearly 70% year-on-year, which is another important reason why the market remains optimistic about Apple. In the first nine months of fiscal year 2022, Apple achieved revenue of US $58.73 billion in the Chinese market, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. Guo Tianxiang, senior analyst at IDC China, said that in the first half of 2022, Apple has occupied 70.5% of the domestic high-end market above US $600.</p><p>If Daniel Ives' analysis is true, 30% or even more Chinese iPhone users have completed the upgrading of their models, and Apple's stock price will most likely be boosted. But accomplishing this goal is not easy. According to IDC statistics, Apple's smartphone market share has stabilized at 10.2%-23.4% in the past two years, and it is currently the third largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. In the field of high-end smartphones where Apple is located, Huawei recently released the Mate 50 series of mobile phones, which obviously provides consumers with new choices.</p><p>According to Barron's Weekly, new products may have a significant impact on the company in the next few quarters, but it is a small probability event that Apple's stock price will skyrocket after the press conference. According to the stock price trend of 21 iPhone release days previously tracked by Dow Jones Market Data, Apple's stock price fell by an average of 0.46% on the end of the conference.</p><p>Apple shares rose slightly by 0.93% to close at $155.96 on September 7.</p><p><b>Apple builds cars, which may not be as practical as Apple Watch</b></p><p>At the press conference on September 8, Apple still didn't mention building a car at all. \"Barron's Weekly\" believes that it is still too early to incorporate Apple's huge market share of car manufacturing into its sales model and reflect it in its valuation.</p><p>However, thanks to Apple's strong market influence and brand appeal, Apple Car has begun to capture the minds of consumers even if it has not been officially announced, designed and produced. On September 2, a report by market research firm Strategic Vision on the willingness of new car buyers to spend showed that 26% of respondents said they would \"definitely consider\" Apple cars when buying a car.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>(TM.N) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda Motor</a>(HMC.N) is more popular than Apple, 38% and 32%, respectively;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.N.) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.O) ranked fourth and fifth respectively with 21% and 20%. Alexander Edwards, president of the agency, said that what car companies should worry about is that Apple is taking away consumers' love. \"For example, more than 50% of Tesla owners said they would'definitely 'consider future Apple cars.\"</p><p>For Apple, this may be a good thing. After all, based on the stable performance of the iPhone, relying on car manufacturing to get out of the second growth curve does not seem so unrealistic on the consumer side.</p><p>But the actual question is how Apple will build cars. Should you build your own factory and assemble it, or outsource it to an automaker? Do you want to build commercial vehicles or passenger cars? Should we take the pure battery route or the hybrid route? Do you want to do autonomous driving?</p><p>The latest news is that Desi Ujkashevic, an executive who worked at Ford for 31 years, joined Apple as senior director in April this year. Public information shows that during her tenure at Ford, she participated in projects such as Ford Explorer, Lincoln MKC, Lincoln AVIATOR AVIATOR, Ford Escape and Ford Electric Vehicle.</p><p>In contrast to Apple Car, Apple spent nearly 40 minutes introducing the Apple Watch at the press conference (it took roughly an hour to introduce the iPhone). If this indicator is measured loosely, then in the next few quarters, Apple's actions in the field of wearable devices may allow investors to see the possibility of performance growth.</p><p>In addition to the regular upgrades of the Apple Watch Series 8 and the launch of the cheaper Apple Watch SE, one of the biggest highlights of the conference was the birth of the Apple Watch Ultra. This watch, with a starting price of RMB 6,299, uses a combination of 64-bit dual-core S8 chip+W3 wireless chip+U1 chip for outdoor extreme environments, and is equipped with two GPS frequency bands of L1 core and L5, which fully highlights Apple's attributes as a technology company.</p><p>In fiscal year 2021, Apple's wearable, smart home and accessories revenue reached US $38.367 billion, exceeding the revenue of Mac and iPad products, and revenue increased by 25% year-on-year. Many market views believe that Apple's wearable devices can increase penetration with the help of the iPhone's huge user base. According to IDC data, global wearable device shipments in 2021 will be 533.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%; Among them, Apple's market share ranks first, reaching 30.3%, Xiaomi and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>Ranked second and third with market shares of 10.2% and 9.0%.</p><p>According to Nasdaq statistics, based on Apple's target prices for the next 12 months given by 25 analysts in the past three months, the average target price is $183.12, and the highest and lowest valuations are $220 and $136 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198806e5a050e0fc3613e1a5f4ccb654\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple Target Price Forecast</p><p>Source: NASDAQ</p><p>Credit Suisse believes Apple's broader ecosystem continues to be supported by services and a growing installed base, while the company grapples with supply constraints. Increasing macro uncertainty, inflationary pressures and the repricing of a strong dollar will likely adversely affect product demand and push Wall Street analysts to cut their revenue expectations for Apple. The bank lowered its price target on Apple to $166 from $169 and maintained a neutral rating on the stock.</p><p>Wedbush pointed out that Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>It is the top choice to invest in technology stocks at the end of this year. For Apple, issues related to China and supply chains appear to have peaked, and the focus is now on iPhone 14 production and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9405a7922d06b5ebe5269bd99e9e3c71","relate_stocks":{"BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195538213","content_text":"苹果内部芯片为公司的利润空间提供了更大的灵活性。北京时间9月8日凌晨，苹果召开新品发布会，iPhone 14如期而至。9月7日苹果股价小幅收涨0.93%至155.96美元，市值2.51万亿美元。2022年1月3日盘中，苹果市值一度超过3万亿美元，但这一突破极限的表现并没能持续——年初至今，苹果股价下跌了11.81%，同期标普500指数下跌16.50%。苹果股价走势图iPhone 14对苹果而言至关重要，因为公司正在面临的挑战之一，是广泛的经济环境未来将如何影响iPhone和其他产品的需求——今年以来，利率上升、燃料成本上涨、供应链的压力以及美元飙升等因素令包括苹果在内的科技公司备受考验。具体到iPhone产品，则是一个交叉路口。Wedbush分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯（Daniel Ives）新品发布会召开前的一份报告中写道，全球范围内，疲软的宏观经济将抑制消费者购买新品的需求，苹果2023财年2.2亿部iPhone的出货量可能是一个较低的水平；然而，在关键的中国市场，约有30%的iPhone消费者正处于产品升级周期的窗口中，潜在的Pro/Pro Max系列产品的消费者有望继续推高iPhone的平均售价。在9月的发布会之前，关于iPhone 14涨价的传闻不绝于耳。结果却是，iPhone 14起售价为799美元，iPhone 14 Plus起售价为899美元，iPhone 14 Pro起售价为999美元。丹尼尔·艾夫斯告诉《巴伦周刊》，iPhone维持售价是一个“令人震惊的事情”，认为苹果内部芯片为公司的利润空间提供了更大的灵活性。除了iPhone之外，发布会还推出了Apple Watch和AirPods Pro的新产品。不过，市场期待了若干年的Apple Car，仍然是镜中月、水中花。iPhone恒强，边际在哪里？iPhone是苹果收入的主要驱动力。《巴伦周刊》在今年4月的报道中指出，公司的股价实际上取决于iPhone的年度销量。2021财年，苹果实现营收3658.17亿美元，净利润为947亿美元；其中iPhone的营收同比增长39%至1919.73亿美元，营收占比为52.48%。这帮助苹果在2022年年初实现了一个完美的开局。1月3日，苹果市值短暂超过3万亿美元，成为有史以来第一家突破这一关口的上市公司。《巴伦周刊》称，年初苹果的股价上涨，源于人们低估了iPhone 13的强劲需求。华尔街曾认为，iPhone 13不如iPhone 12重要，因为后者是苹果的第一款5G产品；但中国对新手机的需求一直处于历史高位，为公司的潜在盈利奠定了基础。苹果2022财年三季报显示，在截至2022年6月25日的九个月里，iPhone产品实现收入1628.63亿美元，同比增长6.37%；营收占比53.54%，较去年同期的54.20%小幅收窄。如果按此增速计算，iPhone在2022财年的营收表现是无法超越的上一财年的。所以，iPhone 14的重要性不言而喻。苹果股价从今年4月开始下滑，6月16日甚至跌破了130美元；8月一度回到170美元上方，随后又开启了下跌模式。新机型的推出往往能刺激“果粉”们的购买欲——比如，有的消费者选择直接购入新机或以旧换新，还有的消费者则退而求其次，选择购买降价后的前一年的机型。与iPhone 13相比，iPhone 14除了新增车祸检测和卫星通信外，并没有推出颠覆性的新功能；而最大的亮点在iPhone 14 Pro的设计，舍弃了此前的刘海屏，增加了灵动岛功能，并且采用了A16仿生芯片。乐观假设的基础，一方面在于美国本土消费者们真的很爱苹果。Counterpoint Research高级分析师莫里斯·克莱恩（Maurice Klaehne）9月2日接受《巴伦周刊》采访时表示，截至2022年第二季度，iPhone的市场份额占美国活跃智能手机的一半以上；过去四年里，用户从安卓系统到iOS系统的迁移持续走强。克莱恩说：“新iPhone 14将帮助苹果在未来几个季度继续获得美国市场的份额。”而iPhone与其他产品的相互协作及整个iOS生态系统为消费者创造了价值。美国是苹果最重要的市场。2021财年，美国市场实现营收1338.03亿美元，增速23%，营收占比36.58%。同期中国市场的营收约为美国的一半，为683.66亿美元；但不能被忽视的是，中国市场营收同比增长近70%，是市场对苹果保持乐观的另一个重要原因。2022财年前九个月，苹果在中国市场实现了587.30亿美元的营收，同比上涨9.1%。IDC中国高级分析师郭天翔表示，2022年上半年，在国内600美元以上高端市场中，苹果已占据70.5%的份额。如果丹尼尔·艾夫斯的分析成立，30%、乃至更多的中国iPhone用户完成了对机型的更新换代，苹果股价大概率将获得提振。但完成这个目标并不容易。据IDC统计，近两年苹果智能手机市占率稳定在10.2%-23.4%，目前为世界第三大智能手机生产商。而在苹果所处的高端智能手机领域，华为前不久发布了Mate 50系列手机，显然给消费者提供了新的选择。《巴伦周刊》称，新产品可能会对公司未来几个季度产生重大影响，但苹果股价在发布会结束后暴涨是小概率事件。根据道琼斯市场数据此前追踪的21个iPhone发布日股价走势，苹果股价在发布会结束当天平均下跌0.46%。9月7日，苹果股价小幅上涨0.93%，收于155.96美元。苹果造车，可能还不如Apple Watch更实际9月8日的发布会，苹果仍然只字未提造车。《巴伦周刊》认为，现在把苹果造车的巨大市场份额纳入其销售模型，并反映在估值中，还为时尚早。不过，许是得益于苹果强大的市场影响力和品牌号召力，Apple Car即便未被官宣、设计和生产，已经开始捕获消费者心智。9月2日，市场调研机构Strategic Vision一份关于新车购买者消费意愿的报告显示，26%的受访者表示在买车时“肯定会考虑”苹果的汽车。丰田汽车（TM.N）和本田汽车（HMC.N）的受欢迎程度高于苹果，分别为38%和32%；福特汽车（F.N）和特斯拉（TSLA.O）则以21%和20%分居第四、第五。该机构的总裁亚历山大·爱德华（Alexander Edwards）表示，车企应该担心的是，苹果正在分走消费者的喜爱，“例如，超过50%的特斯拉车主表示‘一定会’考虑未来的苹果汽车。”对苹果来说，这未尝不是一件好事。毕竟，在iPhone稳定表现的基础上，依靠造车走出第二增长曲线，在消费端看起来不是那么不切实际。但实际的问题在于，苹果到底要怎么造车。是自己建厂组装、还是外包给汽车制造商？是造商用车还是乘用车？是走纯电池路线、还是混合动力路线？是不是要做自动驾驶？最新的消息是，曾在福特汽车工作了31年的高管德西·乌伊卡舍维奇（Desi Ujkashevic）在今年4月加入了苹果，任高级总监。公开资料显示，她在福特汽车任职期间，参与了福特Explorer、林肯MKC、林肯飞行家AVIATOR、福特Escape和福特电动汽车等项目。与Apple Car形成反差的是，苹果在发布会上花费了近40分钟的时间介绍了Apple Watch（介绍iPhone大致用了一个小时）。若是用这个指标不严谨地衡量，那么在接下来若干个季度里，苹果在可穿戴设备领域的作为或许更能让投资者看到业绩增长的可能性。除了Apple Watch Series 8的常规升级和推出更便宜的Apple Watch SE外，发布会最大的亮点之一，是Apple Watch Ultra的横空出世。这款起售价人民币6299元的手表，针对户外极限环境，采用64位双核S8芯片+W3无线芯片+U1芯片的组合，配备L1核L5两个GPS频段，将苹果的科技公司属性彰显无遗。2021财年，苹果可穿戴、智能家居与配件收入达383.67亿美元，超过了Mac和iPad产品的收入，营收同比增长25%。许多市场观点认为，苹果的可穿戴设备可以借助iPhone庞大用户基础提升渗透率。IDC的数据显示，2021年全球可穿戴设备出货量为5.336亿部，同比增长20%；其中，苹果的市场份额居首，达30.3%，小米和三星则以10.2%和9.0%的市占率排名二、三位。据纳斯达克统计，基于25位分析师在过去三个月给予的苹果未来12个月目标价，平均目标价为183.12美元，最高和最低估价分别是220美元和136美元。苹果目标价预测来源：纳斯达克瑞信认为，苹果更广泛的生态系统继续受到了来自服务和不断增长的安装基数的支持，同时该公司正在努力解决供应限制问题。日益增加的宏观不确定性、通货膨胀压力和强势美元的重新定价将可能对产品需求造成不利影响，并推动华尔街分析师下调对苹果收入的预期。该行将苹果的目标价从169美元下调至166美元，并维持对该股的中性评级。Wedbush则指出，苹果、微软和Palo Alto Networks是今年年底投资科技股的首选。对苹果公司来说，与中国和供应链相关的问题似乎已经见顶，现在的焦点是iPhone 14的生产和需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}