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2025-03-27

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain

2023-05-05

2023-05-04

2023-04-29

Sell at May and run away

@MillionaireTiger:【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?

2023-02-02

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U.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden "devil"! What happened?

2023-02-02

$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻

2022-09-01

$标普500(.SPX)$

2022-03-02

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How to get rid of the vicious circle of "small profit and big loss"? Position management is key

2022-02-22

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2022-02-21

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Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?

2022-01-31

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away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947145515","repostId":"9947350102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947350102,"gmtCreate":1682596025806,"gmtModify":1682596039870,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?","htmlText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","listText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","text":"Welcome to this week's Thursday Special! Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone who shares specific experiences or strategies will be rewarded. No coins for the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4331c27bf9d5966a836b2a705aea3b0","width":"640","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947350102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955854914,"gmtCreate":1675351463839,"gmtModify":1676538995953,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955854914","repostId":"1115990913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115990913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675305850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115990913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115990913","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price-based policies affect short-term U.S. debt, and quantitative policies affect medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced the Fed's rate hike to converge or even end the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet responded. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and 10Y U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, and the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging impact of monetary policy that has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. At most, it fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 will be 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Federal Reserve expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it actually was 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal.<b>2) But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times. Only after 2011Q3 did the United States not experience negative economic growth. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has affected economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, it has become more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the United States has seen the best combination: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgments on various assets are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>The 2-year U.S. bond yield continued to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement on its February interest rate meeting, raising the federal funds target rate by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stating that it will maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US $60 billion/month U.S. debt and US $35 billion/month MBS since September. change.</p><p><b>Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike this time is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC stated in December that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but monetary policy has lagging effects on economic activity, inflation and financial development that have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of poor expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, U.S. bond yields fell significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution on February 1, the market's operational expectation for the Federal Reserve was 25BP in rate hike at this interest rate meeting and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike was stopped. The Federal Reserve would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. After the announcement of the statement, while acknowledging that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (If the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high), this Fed interest rate meeting will fulfill the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Fed began to slow down after the mid-term elections. rate hike confirms the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the mid-term elections are a watershed for the Fed's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Fed's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking forward, the timing of interest rate cuts will most likely choose the time window that is most critical to the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is coming to an end, poor expectations are most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>More (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In answering a reporter's question, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is it certain that the 25BP rate hike will land in March, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Judging from the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Fed still needs to end the shrinking balance sheet at the right time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price-based policy, then the attention of the subsequent market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet? Has it been fully digested by the market? When does the U.S. economy need the Fed to cut interest rates?</b></p><p><b>Two,</b><b>Back to the economy itself first: short-term exceeding expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicted that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 would be 0.50% year-on-year, but the final announced value was 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, but the actual situation is 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Its Implications for China's Liberalization\" on December 28, 2022 that in the past two years, under the background of labor shortages, low-and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the epidemic It is easier to obtain high-paying jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But this does not prevent the U.S. economy from ushering in a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight peaks appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, and 2008Q3., 2011Q3 and 2022Q2. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of U.S. enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the U.S. did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six U.S. economies all experienced negative growth. This reflects that the slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike's crackdown on inflation. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were voices worried about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit year-on-year growth. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as fast and sharply as a runaway horse year-on-year, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, the year-on-year growth of M2 in the United States dropped to-1.3%, the first time since 1959 that it turned negative.</p><p>If the high M2 in the United States after the epidemic contributes to inflation, then the year-on-year negative M2 theoretically means that U.S. inflation may fall faster and sharply than expected. This conclusion supports the Fed to quickly end its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each huge shock in the size of the Fed's balance sheet exacerbates the year-on-year volatility of M2. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the U.S. M2 growth dropped sharply, and the M2 growth turned negative at the same time, which is most likely the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money supply and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 2 years and less, while quantitative tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 10 years and more. At present, it is more difficult to see the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds moving further downward.</b>Theoretically, in the context of increasing downside risks of economic recession and inflation, the 10-year U.S. bond yield center should move further down, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter that trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts will affect short-term U.S. bond yields more than directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term U.S. debt demand factors also include the increase or decrease of U.S. debt holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The 10-year U.S. bond yield in 2022 will peak at 4.25%, which is significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this is not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but by economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks. The result of reducing holdings of U.S. debt resonance. The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>4. The last decline in U.S. stocks may begin</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will experience the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply.\" Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to 29.92 times historical highs. If, as we predict, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters: \"The economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move down further.\" Then, U.S. stocks are bound to start the last drop to kill performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various assets in the next few months is:<b>1）</b>Long-term U.S. bond yields have entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>Short-term U.S. bond yields continue to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price-based policies affect short-term U.S. debt, and quantitative policies affect medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced the Fed's rate hike to converge or even end the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet responded. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and 10Y U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, and the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging impact of monetary policy that has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. At most, it fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 will be 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Federal Reserve expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it actually was 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal.<b>2) But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times. Only after 2011Q3 did the United States not experience negative economic growth. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has affected economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, it has become more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the United States has seen the best combination: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgments on various assets are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>The 2-year U.S. bond yield continued to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement on its February interest rate meeting, raising the federal funds target rate by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stating that it will maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US $60 billion/month U.S. debt and US $35 billion/month MBS since September. change.</p><p><b>Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike this time is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC stated in December that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but monetary policy has lagging effects on economic activity, inflation and financial development that have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of poor expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, U.S. bond yields fell significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution on February 1, the market's operational expectation for the Federal Reserve was 25BP in rate hike at this interest rate meeting and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike was stopped. The Federal Reserve would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. After the announcement of the statement, while acknowledging that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (If the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high), this Fed interest rate meeting will fulfill the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Fed began to slow down after the mid-term elections. rate hike confirms the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the mid-term elections are a watershed for the Fed's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Fed's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking forward, the timing of interest rate cuts will most likely choose the time window that is most critical to the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is coming to an end, poor expectations are most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>More (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In answering a reporter's question, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is it certain that the 25BP rate hike will land in March, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Judging from the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Fed still needs to end the shrinking balance sheet at the right time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price-based policy, then the attention of the subsequent market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet? Has it been fully digested by the market? When does the U.S. economy need the Fed to cut interest rates?</b></p><p><b>Two,</b><b>Back to the economy itself first: short-term exceeding expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicted that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 would be 0.50% year-on-year, but the final announced value was 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, but the actual situation is 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Its Implications for China's Liberalization\" on December 28, 2022 that in the past two years, under the background of labor shortages, low-and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the epidemic It is easier to obtain high-paying jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But this does not prevent the U.S. economy from ushering in a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight peaks appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, and 2008Q3., 2011Q3 and 2022Q2. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of U.S. enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the U.S. did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six U.S. economies all experienced negative growth. This reflects that the slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike's crackdown on inflation. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were voices worried about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit year-on-year growth. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as fast and sharply as a runaway horse year-on-year, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, the year-on-year growth of M2 in the United States dropped to-1.3%, the first time since 1959 that it turned negative.</p><p>If the high M2 in the United States after the epidemic contributes to inflation, then the year-on-year negative M2 theoretically means that U.S. inflation may fall faster and sharply than expected. This conclusion supports the Fed to quickly end its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each huge shock in the size of the Fed's balance sheet exacerbates the year-on-year volatility of M2. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the U.S. M2 growth dropped sharply, and the M2 growth turned negative at the same time, which is most likely the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money supply and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 2 years and less, while quantitative tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 10 years and more. At present, it is more difficult to see the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds moving further downward.</b>Theoretically, in the context of increasing downside risks of economic recession and inflation, the 10-year U.S. bond yield center should move further down, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter that trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts will affect short-term U.S. bond yields more than directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term U.S. debt demand factors also include the increase or decrease of U.S. debt holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The 10-year U.S. bond yield in 2022 will peak at 4.25%, which is significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this is not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but by economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks. The result of reducing holdings of U.S. debt resonance. The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>4. The last decline in U.S. stocks may begin</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will experience the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply.\" Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to 29.92 times historical highs. If, as we predict, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters: \"The economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move down further.\" Then, U.S. stocks are bound to start the last drop to kill performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various assets in the next few months is:<b>1）</b>Long-term U.S. bond yields have entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>Short-term U.S. bond yields continue to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115990913","content_text":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来数月或将面临最差组合：美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息，市场的鸽派解读略显不妥：1）美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。2）继续降速加息与两点因素有关：通胀有所缓和；利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。3）美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次，本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。回到经济基本面本身：1）短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，公布值为0.96%；12月美联储预期失业率反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。只要短期内经济数据没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。2）但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面。1）藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，为1959年以来首次，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。可见，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。2）缩表与非美央行减持美债双重约束下，10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来数月或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。基于此，我们对于各类资产的判断如下：1）10年期美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）2年期美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动，但内因仍是人民币计价资产的核心矛盾。正文一、继续降速加息，市场鸽派解读美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。美联储发布2月议息会议声明，上调联邦基金目标利率25BP至4.50%-4.75%区间，并表示维持9月以来减持600亿美元/月美债和350亿美元/月MBS的缩表节奏不变。结合鲍威尔讲话来看，美联储本次继续降速加息与两点因素有关：1）承认通胀有所缓和（12月FOMC的表态是通胀仍居高不下）；2）房地产等利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策对经济活动、通胀和金融发展存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。市场解读为鸽派，但似乎存在预期差风险。议息会议后，特别是鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益率明显回落、美股大涨、黄金也有一定表现，看上去市场将美联储连续减速加息解读为鸽派。但美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。2月1日美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。在声明公布后，鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次（如果数据仍强劲，不排除更多次加息的可能性，尽管这一可能性不高），本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。关于美联储货币政策未来前景，我们有三点理解：1）美联储政策节奏会有一定政治考量，必然会有的放矢。中期选举后美联储就开始减速加息印证了去年8月底以来我们始终强调的观点“中期选举是美联储货币政策的分水岭”，并且由此可见，美联储货币政策节奏带有一定政治考量。往后看，降息时机大概率会选择对经济和政治最为关键的时间窗口，而不会在刚刚结束加息之际就立马释放降息信号。2）加息即将结束之际，最容易产生预期差，鲍威尔担心做得过少。多（加息）一点还是少（加息）一点完全取决于高频数据，鲍威尔在答记者问中甚至强调政策风险是“做得过少并未有效控制通胀”。假若未来1-2个月美国就业数据仍未明显转弱，那么不仅3月落地25BP加息是板上钉钉，市场甚至可能会修正3月后结束加息、Q4开始降息的预期。3）市场注意力即将转向缩表。从2018-2019年的经验看，在结束加息、开始降息之间，美联储还需要择时结束缩表，如果市场对美联储价格型政策没有误判，那么后续市场的注意力就会转向缩表影响。进而，我们需要回答三个问题：美联储缩表会有什么影响？是否已经被市场充分消化？美国经济何时需要联储降息？二、先回到经济本身：短期超预期，但正逼近衰退短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，但最终公布值为0.96%；12月经济展望同时预期失业率年底反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。换言之，美国经济短期强劲程度甚至好于美联储的评估，那么只要短期内没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。市场目前的风险偏好似乎有些过度了。但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。尽管我们在22年12月28日报告《美国经济的韧性及对中国放开后的启示》中指出，过去两年在劳动力短缺背景下，疫前低教育背景、缺乏工作经验的中低收入群体在疫后更容易获得高薪职位进而增强了就业、消费与经济数据的韧性。但这并不妨碍美国经济即将迎来一次周期性衰退。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，8个顶点分别出现在1974Q4、1981Q2、1990Q4、2001Q3、2008Q3、2011Q3以及2022Q2。此前，美国企业综合平均成本指数见顶快速回落后只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长，其余6次美国经济均现负增长。这反映了总需求放缓才是加息打压通胀的终点。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。三、缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。2020H2市场中出现了担忧美国高通胀的声音，主要逻辑就是M2同比出现了罕见的两位数增长，2021年2月M2同比增幅更是高达26.9%，为有数据以来最高。不出意外，2021H2-2022H1美国CPI同比如脱缰野马般快速、大幅攀升，高点曾达到9.1%，为1981年11月后最高。2022年12月美国M2同增降至-1.3%，为1959年以来首次转负。假若疫后美国M2的高企助长了通胀，那么M2同比转负理论上意味着美国通胀可能会超预期、快速、大幅回落，这一结论支持美联储快速结束加息。但问题在于M2同比增速为何会转负？答案是美联储缩表。如下图所示，每次美联储资产负债表规模的巨震都会加剧M2同比波动。2021年3月M2同比增速自高点回落之际刚好对应着美联储扩表速率拐点，美联储结束扩表后美国M2同增骤降、而M2同增转负则大概率是缩表的结果。换言之，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。美联储价格型工具影响2年及以下期限美债收益率、数量型工具则影响10年及以上期限美债收益率，目前看10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。理论上，在经济衰退与通胀下行风险双增的背景下，10年期美债收益率中枢应该进一步下移、逼近3%甚至更低水平。但供需关系可能会对抗这一趋势。首先，美联储加息与降息更多地影响短端美债收益率，不直接影响长端，但QE与缩表等数量型工具则通过供需变化直接影响长端美债收益率。此外，长端美债需求因素还包括非美央行增减持美债行为。2022年10年期美债收益率高点为4.25%，显著高于我们去年初的预期，但这并非联储加息驱动，而是由经济因素（包括高通胀）、美联储缩表与非美央行减持美债共振的结果。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。由此可见，过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来1-2个季度美国或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。四、美股最后一跌或将拉开帷幕去年下半年我们一直在说美股会出现杀业绩引发的最后一跌，但一直没有出现，原因就在于美国经济韧性尚存且市场早早计入了联储货币政策转向预期。特别是过去一个季度美股的反弹恰好映射了“经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落”，因此，标普500指数的10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）重回29.92倍的历史高位。假若如我们所预计的，未来1-2个季度美国金融市场环境将面临最差组合“经济开始衰退，10年期美债收益率反而受联储缩表等因素约束中枢难以进一步下移”，那么，美股势必开启杀业绩的最后一跌。基于此，我们对于未来数月各类资产的判断是：1）长端美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）短端美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动。风险提示：美联储货币政策，美经济与通胀形势超预期，全球疫情超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955855520,"gmtCreate":1675351077660,"gmtModify":1676538995884,"author":{"id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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc52ed66048b6e101a3596b624454da7","width":"1440","height":"2932"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955855520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939904146,"gmtCreate":1662037562188,"gmtModify":1676536681716,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939904146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033066245,"gmtCreate":1646158170036,"gmtModify":1676534096783,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰💰","listText":"💰💰","text":"💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033066245","repostId":"2108576110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2108576110","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646139606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2108576110?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 21:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How to get rid of the vicious circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108576110","media":"金十数据","summary":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when entering the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also a small rise and a sharp fall. What's more, it will fall all the way without any signs of rebound. How to get through such a frustrating stage? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some enlightenment from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually generally referred to as \"fund management\". Although such a reference is not rigorous, it is often universal in the trading circle. So what is position management? As the name suggests, it is managing the positions in your hands. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position status, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. The definition of this in Baidu Encyclopedia is: in the risk market, risks are controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment funds.</p><p>Through the above statement, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Below we will start with<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mentality issues in position management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>1. The importance and necessity of position management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations are used to participate in the market regularly, otherwise position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is very simple. Just like you are playing poker, the criteria for folding and raising each time should be the same. Otherwise, who can tell for sure whether you will only add a small bet when you win, but place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state and price the market will be at some point in the future. Even if someone does it in a short period of time, it must be deceived. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never be predicted, is there any reason for you to spend all your funds on position holding?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profits without holding a heavy position? One thing you need to pay attention to is that risks and profits coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profits, and at the same time untie the rope that binds risks. Especially in the novice stage, uncontrolled investment is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to liquidate positions when there is no way to guarantee the winning rate.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to pursue profits, just like the sentence quoted from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only take a heavy position when we are quite certain, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is an important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong trying to invest in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a perfect trading system. Although it can't get you out of the \"small profit\" for the time being, position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a symbolic victory in the whole trading process: your funds finally no longer There is a lot of outflow.</p><p>2. How to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"world outlook\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate, it just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunities to get their own wave of market. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with each person's trading time period, psychological endurance and basis for entry and exit.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high winning rate, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions when conducting trend trading to reduce the cost of trial orders. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they must continue to increase positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to ensure the maximum profit. Of course, short-term traders' stop losses are very strict, which is in Another level reduces the risks brought by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this goal, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your funds into the market. Especially at the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the loss, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but be sure to ensure that the same standard entry is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to occur<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light positions, the embarrassing situation of heavy positions when losing money.</p><p>2. Accidental continuous losses in transactions are normal. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions of the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 orders could have been opened, but after several consecutive losses, only 90 orders can be opened. It will be more difficult than 100 orders to return the funds to the original level.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy of adding or subtracting positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The ever-changing market is likely to have a market trend that allows us to increase or reduce our positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management to include increasing or decreasing positions. The content is in it.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, according to what percentage ratio, the position must be opened, and under what circumstances should the position be increased or reduced according to what percentage ratio? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed based on personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position according to their own relevant data. management strategy.</p><p>So what data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I have made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative, what are the losses you can accept each time, and what are the stop loss points in your trading system corresponding to these losses. The acceptable loss amount is the amount of losses you can bear at one point. These amounts are higher than the fluctuation price per point of the previous hand, which is the number of lots you open in a single entry.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate provided by trading techniques, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning percentage and profit-loss ratio are twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will have died tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part, it is an integral part of the entire trading system. We only discussed position management and various related factors above, but this does not mean that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality issues in position management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"world outlook\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next step is the issue of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to deal with them well. If your position management has been inspired by the above part, or has solved the previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easy.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentality that often appear in position management: when making money, if only I could have done a full position; When I lost money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be questions such as do you want to increase your position? Increase your position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten up your position? Forget it, it's better to lighten up your positions and run away and wait for your mental state, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to completely follow the designed management model without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that simple to actually do, so what should we do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the position management strategy and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to ask you to make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible as fixed and careful as possible. For example, if an operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you use rules to firmly lock your heart.</p><p>However, the rules still depend on discipline to complete the implementation, so we must abide by the established discipline, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can gain some ideas about position management from it, which will definitely be beneficial to your trading path. Finally, I hope everyone's transaction goes smoothly and takes it all up and down.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to get rid of the vicious circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to get rid of the vicious circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when entering the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also a small rise and a sharp fall. What's more, it will fall all the way without any signs of rebound. How to get through such a frustrating stage? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some enlightenment from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually generally referred to as \"fund management\". Although such a reference is not rigorous, it is often universal in the trading circle. So what is position management? As the name suggests, it is managing the positions in your hands. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position status, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. The definition of this in Baidu Encyclopedia is: in the risk market, risks are controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment funds.</p><p>Through the above statement, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Below we will start with<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mentality issues in position management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>1. The importance and necessity of position management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations are used to participate in the market regularly, otherwise position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is very simple. Just like you are playing poker, the criteria for folding and raising each time should be the same. Otherwise, who can tell for sure whether you will only add a small bet when you win, but place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state and price the market will be at some point in the future. Even if someone does it in a short period of time, it must be deceived. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never be predicted, is there any reason for you to spend all your funds on position holding?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profits without holding a heavy position? One thing you need to pay attention to is that risks and profits coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profits, and at the same time untie the rope that binds risks. Especially in the novice stage, uncontrolled investment is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to liquidate positions when there is no way to guarantee the winning rate.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to pursue profits, just like the sentence quoted from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only take a heavy position when we are quite certain, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is an important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong trying to invest in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a perfect trading system. Although it can't get you out of the \"small profit\" for the time being, position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a symbolic victory in the whole trading process: your funds finally no longer There is a lot of outflow.</p><p>2. How to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"world outlook\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate, it just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunities to get their own wave of market. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with each person's trading time period, psychological endurance and basis for entry and exit.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high winning rate, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions when conducting trend trading to reduce the cost of trial orders. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they must continue to increase positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to ensure the maximum profit. Of course, short-term traders' stop losses are very strict, which is in Another level reduces the risks brought by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this goal, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your funds into the market. Especially at the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the loss, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but be sure to ensure that the same standard entry is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to occur<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light positions, the embarrassing situation of heavy positions when losing money.</p><p>2. Accidental continuous losses in transactions are normal. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions of the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 orders could have been opened, but after several consecutive losses, only 90 orders can be opened. It will be more difficult than 100 orders to return the funds to the original level.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy of adding or subtracting positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The ever-changing market is likely to have a market trend that allows us to increase or reduce our positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management to include increasing or decreasing positions. The content is in it.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, according to what percentage ratio, the position must be opened, and under what circumstances should the position be increased or reduced according to what percentage ratio? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed based on personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position according to their own relevant data. management strategy.</p><p>So what data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I have made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative, what are the losses you can accept each time, and what are the stop loss points in your trading system corresponding to these losses. The acceptable loss amount is the amount of losses you can bear at one point. These amounts are higher than the fluctuation price per point of the previous hand, which is the number of lots you open in a single entry.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate provided by trading techniques, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning percentage and profit-loss ratio are twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will have died tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part, it is an integral part of the entire trading system. We only discussed position management and various related factors above, but this does not mean that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality issues in position management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"world outlook\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next step is the issue of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to deal with them well. If your position management has been inspired by the above part, or has solved the previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easy.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentality that often appear in position management: when making money, if only I could have done a full position; When I lost money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be questions such as do you want to increase your position? Increase your position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten up your position? Forget it, it's better to lighten up your positions and run away and wait for your mental state, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to completely follow the designed management model without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that simple to actually do, so what should we do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the position management strategy and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to ask you to make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible as fixed and careful as possible. For example, if an operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you use rules to firmly lock your heart.</p><p>However, the rules still depend on discipline to complete the implementation, so we must abide by the established discipline, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can gain some ideas about position management from it, which will definitely be beneficial to your trading path. Finally, I hope everyone's transaction goes smoothly and takes it all up and down.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108576110","content_text":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆尽的怪象？也许从仓位管理的角度可以给你一些启示。仓位管理通常也会被笼统的称之为“资金管理”，虽然这样的代指并不严谨，但在交易圈内很多时候是可以通用的。那什么才是仓位管理呢？顾名思义就是管理你手中的头寸。你的账户资金可以支撑的最大头寸数就是你的满仓状态，你实际持有的头寸数和满仓数的比例就是所谓的仓位占比。在百度百科里对于此的定义是：风险市场中，通过限制单次投入资金的比例来控制风险。通过上面的表述，大家对“仓位管理”应该有一个较为准确的认知了，下面我们就从仓位管理的必要性、仓位如何管理、仓位管理中的心态问题三个方面来阐述应该如何从这一层面解决“小赚大亏”的问题。一、仓位管理的重要性与必要性研究仓位管理的前提一定是交易手法具有一致性，固定的使用一种或几种组合的形式参与市场，否则仓位管理就会失去其意义，这一点是需要说在前面的。其中的道理很简单，就像你在打扑克一样，每次弃牌和加注的标准应该一致，不然谁能说得准你会不会在赢得时候只加了很小的注，而在输的时候却下的是重注。没有人可以准确的预测到市场在未来某个时刻会是怎样的一种状态，表现为怎么的一个价格。即使有人在短期内做到了，那也肯定是蒙的，在市场中搏杀不要相信任何一个号称自己可以预测行情的人。如此一来，市场的不确定性就显而易见的摆在我们面前，既然市场永远无法预测，那你还有理由把全部的资金用于头寸持有吗？此时，你可能会说，不重仓持有怎么能博取足够的利润？有一点你需要注意，风险和利润是并存的，你放大了追逐利润的可能，与此同时也解开了束缚风险的绳索。尤其在新手阶段，没有办法保证胜率的情况下不加节制的投入资金无疑是爆仓最快的途径之一。仓位管理是一个关于风险的防范措施，并不是你追逐利润的手段，这正像文章开头引用百度百科的那句话。很多成功的前辈也经常会告诉我们，只有在相当确定的情况下才能重仓，即使这样也是建立在提前做好止损准备的前提下。毕竟生存下来才是在市场中获利的重要支撑。由此可以看出仓位管理在市场博弈中是必不可少的。在无法很好的解读市场信号，建立完善的交易系统之前投入较小的仓位尝试是永远不会错的。它虽然暂时无法让你摆脱“小赚”，但配合止损的仓位管理起码可以帮你截住“大亏”，这在交易的整个过程里都是一种标志性的胜利：你的资金终于不再大把的流出。二、仓位如何管理？前边说的这些如果是所谓的“世界观”，那这一部分我们来探讨一下仓位管理的“方法论”。首先有一点需要大家明白：仓位控制并不能解决胜率低的问题，它只是让交易者死的慢点，以便有足够的时间和机会去获取属于自己的那一波行情。由此可见，仓位管理不能单独来讨论，而是应该结合每个人交易的时间周期、心理承受能力和进出场依据。比如趋势交易者通常胜率不会太高，但盈亏比却是相当的大。这就要求在进行趋势交易时要严格的控制仓位来降低试单成本，一旦试单成功出现盈利就要不断加仓来提升自己的盈亏比以弥补胜率低的弊端。而短线交易者是依靠高胜率配合低盈亏比来实现盈利的，所以他需要提高自己的资金利用率来保证盈利的尽量最大化，当然短线交易者的止损都是非常严格的，这就在另一个层面降低了重仓所带来的风险。仓位管理的目的是斩断亏损，让利润奔跑，为了实现这一目的需要遵循一些原则：1、永远都不要把你的全部资金投入市场。尤其在新手阶段或者长期处于“小赚大亏”的状态中时，把全部资金投入市场不仅会让亏损放大，也会在一定程度上影响交易者的心态。当然，短线交易者在止损坚决并且盈亏比合理的情况下可以尝试重仓出击，但务必保证同一标准的进场是开立相同的仓位，不然很有可能出现盈利时轻仓，亏损时重仓的尴尬局面。2、在交易中出现偶然性的连续亏损是正常的，仓位管理必须保证在连续亏损后，剩余资金还可以开立相同手数的头寸。如果这一原则无法遵循，那就很有可能出现原本可以开100手单，连续几次亏损后就只能开立90手单了，90手的单量想要将资金打回原来的水平会比100手单更加艰难。3、要有科学的加减仓策略。交易虽然在数学的角度来看是一个概率的游戏，但它绝不是一个静态的模型。时刻变化着的市场在我们一次入场后很可能会出现让我们加仓或者减仓的行情走势，这个时候你的胜率和盈亏比也在发生着变化，这就需要你的仓位管理包括加减仓的内容在其中。那具体仓位管理有没有精确到数字上的通用法则呢？比如一定按照百分之多少的比例开仓，怎样的情况下按照几成的比例加仓或者减仓？很可惜，没有！在这一部分的开始就已经说过了，仓位管理是要结合个人的进出仓依据、心理承受能力来设计的，这里只能为你提供一种思路，大家需要根据自己的相关数据来进行完成仓位的管理策略。那设定属于自己的仓位管理策略需要依据哪些数据或者参考项呢？我在这里做了如下统计，供诸位参考：1、自己的风险偏好。你要确定你是激进型的还是保守型的，你每次可以接受的亏损是多少，这些亏损对应你交易系统中的止损点数又是多少，可以接受的亏损额比上止损点数就是你一个点可以承受的亏损数额，这些数额比上单手每点波动价格就是你单次入场开仓的手数了。2、交易手法的胜率。你的仓位管理一定要结合交易手法所能提供的胜率来确定，这样才能保证正常比例的盈亏次数下你的资金可以挺过亏损的部分。3、交易的风险报酬比，也就是所谓的盈亏比。胜率和盈亏比是一对双生子，这个在之前很多文章里我都有提到过。在胜率和盈亏比的配合下，你的仓位管理一定要是能抗得过交易中“最坏的时期”，不然你还没有走到自己交易系统中的黎明就已经惨死在黎明前的黑夜里了。总之，仓位管理不是独立静态的部分，它是整个交易系统的组成部分。上面我们只讨论了仓位管理以及与之相关的各方面因素，但并不是说交易系统就仅仅如此。交易系统中的进出仓策略和仓位管理相辅相成，二者缺一不可。三、仓位管理中的心态问题前面两个部分分别告诉了大家仓位管理的“世界观”和“方法论”，接下来就是意识层面的问题了。在上面两个部分的问题没有解决好之前心态方面也必定是不能很好应对的。如果你的仓位管理已经从上述部分中有所启发，或是已经解决了之前的问题，那心态的问题就相对容易一些了。在仓位管理中经常出现的心态无非就两种：赚钱时，要是我当初能满仓干就好了；亏钱时，要是我当初能轻仓试一试就好了。当然，也会有诸如要不要加仓？加仓赌一把吧！或者要不要减仓？算了，还是赶紧减仓跑路吧等心理状态，不过后者是前者的衍生品了。在进行仓位管理时，最好的状态是自己完全按照已经设计好的管理模式去执行，没有任何的主观因素。这一点说起来容易，但实际做起来并没有那么简单，那该怎么办呢？没有什么捷径，就是把仓位的管理策略和与之相匹配的交易系统中其他部分做的尽量详细，不给自己任何主观遐想的空间。注意，这不是让你把交易系统做的错综复杂，而是告诉大家把尽量简单的交易系统做的尽量固定和仔细。比如某一项操作依据是一个区间性的，那就把这个区间变成确定的数值，亦或是尽量压缩区间的范围来寻找系统中的确定性，只有这样才能用规则把自己的心牢牢锁住。不过，规则还是要靠纪律来完成执行的，所以，一定要遵守已经制定好的纪律，哪怕使用自我的奖惩机制。关于仓位管理说到这里也即将结束了，希望大家从中可以收获一些关于仓位管理的思路，这对于大家的交易之路必将是有所裨益的。最后希望大家交易顺利，涨跌通吃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097412137,"gmtCreate":1645529000257,"gmtModify":1676534036128,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097412137","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097661560,"gmtCreate":1645445177639,"gmtModify":1676534028464,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/90976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14:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179897507","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has undergone a relatively large adjustment, which has also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today I will share an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my good friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how excellent a company is, there will be a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel reality of the market, that is, whether it is a long-term upward market or a long-term upward company, it will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is similar to our current market environment. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we, as investors, have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors because of it. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good reference on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to take a loss</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charley Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>There is no doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyle. If their shareholders can hold their stocks for a long time, these shareholders will also get huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns always come with risks. If you want to obtain huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual yield of 35.5%. This means that the initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 today. But in fact, in the past 20 years, it has been difficult to actually turn this $1,000 into $387,000. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market value. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, with a loss of $51,388.</p><p>That's why it's not easy to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Maybe you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world\", but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has compounded its yield of 38% since its listing in May 2002. But realizing this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can afford. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Are investors really able to tolerate their initial investment pullback/retracement over thirty times? Especially the 500% gain vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual yield of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investing experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has only fallen by more than 50% once, that is, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. Many investments couldn't stand this period when his stock price went into a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover volume reached 845 billion US dollars, while the average market value of Google at that time was less than 153 billion US dollars. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which made many investors lose the opportunity to obtain a 515% return in the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have made him get huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His wise and philosophical quotes are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about things from multiple angles with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2002, he said that \"people count too much and think too little\".</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets, namely, entry, exit and too difficult\". Investors should follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we will turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than this?\".</p><p>Today, there are many new products emerging in our market for investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in a dilemma is like the following conversation I had with the fishing tackle owner revealed. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really take the bait because of this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pioneer a legal career. During Munger's early investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His enthusiasm for investing was completely ignited in 1959, when Ed Davis (Ed Davis) introduced him to Buffett as one of his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to care too much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor Davis trusts wholeheartedly. They are so alike that Davis once filled in Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off immediately. After years of communicating, learning and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund Company (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% annually before fee rates. Especially when you look at it in combination with the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more valuable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500 index (including Dividend) has only gained 6.6% in the same time frame. During the 14 years of the entire fund's existence, Munger's average annual return rate was 24%, and the compound return rate was 19.82%, which was much higher than the index. During the same period, the compound return rate of the S&P 500 Index (including Dividend) was only 5.2%. Munger's limited partners will also be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this matter is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains short-term periodic large losses. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two or three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not suitable for investing, and you can only get relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market fluctuations</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure.\" Of course, Munger is not only as simple as focus, his focus is based on diversified thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its money was invested in blue-chip stamping companies. In the worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company caused serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The sales of blue-chip printing companies exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decrease. By 1982, sales plummeted to 9 million dollars, and by 2006, they were only 25,000 dollars. \"Considering the initial business of blue-chip printing company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure \"\".</p><p>However, as an important asset invested by the fund, the blue-chip printing company later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow Jones Average). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of the truly undervalued value, but the market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value. It was a tough experience-1973-1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone, it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The 1973-1974 bear market, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost his largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound rate of return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its entire life cycle, even after experiencing a brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth may also have a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones index has grown 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement of more than 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell more than 90%, and it was not until 1955 that it returned to the high of 1929. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Index experienced two sharp pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the technology bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we want to seek high returns on investment, then huge losses are destined to be part of it, no matter whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"We are passionate about keeping things simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it doesn't keep you away from losing money. Even a portfolio with a 50/50 stock and bond allocation lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffers absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock fell more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, a pullback/retracement is a downward move from a high. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway dropped more than 20% after hitting an all-time high 6 times.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, i.e. your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when Internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also cost them. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 has risen 270% over the same period! In a 1999 letter from Berkshire Hathaway to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern. During the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you are investing in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At that time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to continue to compound growth in the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We can't play chess blindfolded or become piano players. But our achievements are remarkable, because we have an advantage in temperament, which is enough to make up for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. The loss is inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that the stock has fallen by more than 50%, which will undoubtedly happen in the future, please make sure that you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Suppose your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand to lose more than $30,000. Suppose if the value of the stock is reduced by half and the bond will retain the value (this is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way, even if these 60% assets fall by half, you should be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMunger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-21 14:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has undergone a relatively large adjustment, which has also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today I will share an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my good friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how excellent a company is, there will be a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel reality of the market, that is, whether it is a long-term upward market or a long-term upward company, it will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is similar to our current market environment. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we, as investors, have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors because of it. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good reference on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to take a loss</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charley Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>There is no doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyle. If their shareholders can hold their stocks for a long time, these shareholders will also get huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns always come with risks. If you want to obtain huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual yield of 35.5%. This means that the initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 today. But in fact, in the past 20 years, it has been difficult to actually turn this $1,000 into $387,000. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market value. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, with a loss of $51,388.</p><p>That's why it's not easy to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Maybe you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world\", but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has compounded its yield of 38% since its listing in May 2002. But realizing this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can afford. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Are investors really able to tolerate their initial investment pullback/retracement over thirty times? Especially the 500% gain vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual yield of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investing experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has only fallen by more than 50% once, that is, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. Many investments couldn't stand this period when his stock price went into a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover volume reached 845 billion US dollars, while the average market value of Google at that time was less than 153 billion US dollars. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which made many investors lose the opportunity to obtain a 515% return in the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have made him get huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His wise and philosophical quotes are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about things from multiple angles with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2002, he said that \"people count too much and think too little\".</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets, namely, entry, exit and too difficult\". Investors should follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we will turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than this?\".</p><p>Today, there are many new products emerging in our market for investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in a dilemma is like the following conversation I had with the fishing tackle owner revealed. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really take the bait because of this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pioneer a legal career. During Munger's early investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His enthusiasm for investing was completely ignited in 1959, when Ed Davis (Ed Davis) introduced him to Buffett as one of his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to care too much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor Davis trusts wholeheartedly. They are so alike that Davis once filled in Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off immediately. After years of communicating, learning and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund Company (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% annually before fee rates. Especially when you look at it in combination with the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more valuable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500 index (including Dividend) has only gained 6.6% in the same time frame. During the 14 years of the entire fund's existence, Munger's average annual return rate was 24%, and the compound return rate was 19.82%, which was much higher than the index. During the same period, the compound return rate of the S&P 500 Index (including Dividend) was only 5.2%. Munger's limited partners will also be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this matter is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains short-term periodic large losses. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two or three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not suitable for investing, and you can only get relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market fluctuations</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure.\" Of course, Munger is not only as simple as focus, his focus is based on diversified thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its money was invested in blue-chip stamping companies. In the worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company caused serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The sales of blue-chip printing companies exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decrease. By 1982, sales plummeted to 9 million dollars, and by 2006, they were only 25,000 dollars. \"Considering the initial business of blue-chip printing company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure \"\".</p><p>However, as an important asset invested by the fund, the blue-chip printing company later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow Jones Average). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of the truly undervalued value, but the market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value. It was a tough experience-1973-1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone, it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The 1973-1974 bear market, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost his largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound rate of return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its entire life cycle, even after experiencing a brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth may also have a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones index has grown 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement of more than 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell more than 90%, and it was not until 1955 that it returned to the high of 1929. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Index experienced two sharp pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the technology bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we want to seek high returns on investment, then huge losses are destined to be part of it, no matter whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"We are passionate about keeping things simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it doesn't keep you away from losing money. Even a portfolio with a 50/50 stock and bond allocation lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffers absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock fell more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, a pullback/retracement is a downward move from a high. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway dropped more than 20% after hitting an all-time high 6 times.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, i.e. your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when Internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also cost them. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 has risen 270% over the same period! In a 1999 letter from Berkshire Hathaway to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern. During the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you are investing in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At that time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to continue to compound growth in the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We can't play chess blindfolded or become piano players. But our achievements are remarkable, because we have an advantage in temperament, which is enough to make up for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. The loss is inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that the stock has fallen by more than 50%, which will undoubtedly happen in the future, please make sure that you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Suppose your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand to lose more than $30,000. Suppose if the value of the stock is reduced by half and the bond will retain the value (this is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way, even if these 60% assets fall by half, you should be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179897507","content_text":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文章。即便放到今天，也特别应景。这从侧面也看到无论是多么优秀的公司，每隔几年都会出现巨大的回撤。前言：这个章节的内容描述了一个略带残酷的现实市场，这就是无论是一个长期向上的市场还是一个长期向上的公司都难免会经历大幅的向下波动，这和我们当下所处的市场环境是何其的相似。而在遭受市场损失时如何从容面对，对于任何投资者而言都是相当不易的，因为我们不仅要考虑投资组合的波动率，我们还要考虑到基金持有人的感受。而这两方面的需求在某些极端下行的市场环境下也是相互矛盾的。也许我们作为投资人有能够承担市场损失的能力，但我们可能会因此失去我们的投资人。芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴，如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2007年11月至2008年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093209633,"gmtCreate":1643627498655,"gmtModify":1676533837591,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093209633","repostId":"9004448317","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004448317,"gmtCreate":1642676525258,"gmtModify":1676533734534,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022","htmlText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":418177377399080,"gmtCreate":1743089988582,"gmtModify":1743089992555,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$ </a> little gain&nbsp;","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ little gain","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15dcc60417d517a8eab86e56f239a283","width":"1176","height":"2224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418177377399080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656924632,"gmtCreate":1683291733827,"gmtModify":1683291733827,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8552af8430cf7b919d81388b54f74153","width":"1620","height":"1884"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656924632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656066100,"gmtCreate":1683208654701,"gmtModify":1683208654701,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">$宝洁(PG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$宝洁(PG)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdaf831dd581026137ab50dd1af6b316","width":"2160","height":"1296"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656066100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947145515,"gmtCreate":1682726201638,"gmtModify":1682726206682,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell at May and run away","listText":"Sell at May and run away","text":"Sell at May and run away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947145515","repostId":"9947350102","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947350102,"gmtCreate":1682596025806,"gmtModify":1682596039870,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"【Thursday Special】Will You Sell In May And Go Away?","htmlText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","listText":"Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;this&nbsp;week's&nbsp;Thursday&nbsp;Special!&nbsp;Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone&nbsp;who&nbsp;shares&nbsp;specific experiences or strategies&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;rewarded.&nbsp;No&nbsp;coins&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;","text":"Welcome to this week's Thursday Special! Tomorrow is the last trading day of April. May is here! Happy Labor Day! How are you going to spend your holiday?Sell in May and Go Away” – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So snbchf.comToday we'll talk about “Sell in May and go away”. Do you think there will be a sell-off in May? And why?For example, you may find some clues from the earnings, the trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or huge gains since the YTD. Please share your opinions with evidence in the comment. Buy in June and Retire by Noon | Robinhood | Know Your MemeTips:Everyone who shares specific experiences or strategies will be rewarded. No coins for the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4331c27bf9d5966a836b2a705aea3b0","width":"640","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947350102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955854914,"gmtCreate":1675351463839,"gmtModify":1676538995953,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955854914","repostId":"1115990913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115990913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675305850,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115990913?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-02 10:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115990913","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price-based policies affect short-term U.S. debt, and quantitative policies affect medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced the Fed's rate hike to converge or even end the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet responded. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and 10Y U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, and the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging impact of monetary policy that has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. At most, it fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 will be 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Federal Reserve expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it actually was 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal.<b>2) But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times. Only after 2011Q3 did the United States not experience negative economic growth. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has affected economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, it has become more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the United States has seen the best combination: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgments on various assets are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>The 2-year U.S. bond yield continued to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement on its February interest rate meeting, raising the federal funds target rate by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stating that it will maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US $60 billion/month U.S. debt and US $35 billion/month MBS since September. change.</p><p><b>Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike this time is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC stated in December that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but monetary policy has lagging effects on economic activity, inflation and financial development that have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of poor expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, U.S. bond yields fell significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution on February 1, the market's operational expectation for the Federal Reserve was 25BP in rate hike at this interest rate meeting and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike was stopped. The Federal Reserve would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. After the announcement of the statement, while acknowledging that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (If the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high), this Fed interest rate meeting will fulfill the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Fed began to slow down after the mid-term elections. rate hike confirms the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the mid-term elections are a watershed for the Fed's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Fed's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking forward, the timing of interest rate cuts will most likely choose the time window that is most critical to the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is coming to an end, poor expectations are most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>More (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In answering a reporter's question, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is it certain that the 25BP rate hike will land in March, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Judging from the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Fed still needs to end the shrinking balance sheet at the right time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price-based policy, then the attention of the subsequent market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet? Has it been fully digested by the market? When does the U.S. economy need the Fed to cut interest rates?</b></p><p><b>Two,</b><b>Back to the economy itself first: short-term exceeding expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicted that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 would be 0.50% year-on-year, but the final announced value was 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, but the actual situation is 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Its Implications for China's Liberalization\" on December 28, 2022 that in the past two years, under the background of labor shortages, low-and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the epidemic It is easier to obtain high-paying jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But this does not prevent the U.S. economy from ushering in a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight peaks appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, and 2008Q3., 2011Q3 and 2022Q2. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of U.S. enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the U.S. did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six U.S. economies all experienced negative growth. This reflects that the slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike's crackdown on inflation. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were voices worried about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit year-on-year growth. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as fast and sharply as a runaway horse year-on-year, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, the year-on-year growth of M2 in the United States dropped to-1.3%, the first time since 1959 that it turned negative.</p><p>If the high M2 in the United States after the epidemic contributes to inflation, then the year-on-year negative M2 theoretically means that U.S. inflation may fall faster and sharply than expected. This conclusion supports the Fed to quickly end its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each huge shock in the size of the Fed's balance sheet exacerbates the year-on-year volatility of M2. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the U.S. M2 growth dropped sharply, and the M2 growth turned negative at the same time, which is most likely the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money supply and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 2 years and less, while quantitative tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 10 years and more. At present, it is more difficult to see the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds moving further downward.</b>Theoretically, in the context of increasing downside risks of economic recession and inflation, the 10-year U.S. bond yield center should move further down, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter that trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts will affect short-term U.S. bond yields more than directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term U.S. debt demand factors also include the increase or decrease of U.S. debt holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The 10-year U.S. bond yield in 2022 will peak at 4.25%, which is significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this is not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but by economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks. The result of reducing holdings of U.S. debt resonance. The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>4. The last decline in U.S. stocks may begin</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will experience the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply.\" Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to 29.92 times historical highs. If, as we predict, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters: \"The economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move down further.\" Then, U.S. stocks are bound to start the last drop to kill performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various assets in the next few months is:<b>1）</b>Long-term U.S. bond yields have entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>Short-term U.S. bond yields continue to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are soaring but there is a hidden \"devil\"! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-02 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Fed's price-based policies affect short-term U.S. debt, and quantitative policies affect medium-and long-term U.S. debt. Overseas assets have sufficiently priced the Fed's rate hike to converge or even end the rate hike, but the shrinking balance sheet shock has not yet responded. Previously, overseas markets were in the best combination: the U.S. economy has not yet declined, and 10Y U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply; The next few months may face the worst combination: the U.S. economy begins to decline, and the 10Y U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, and the dovish interpretation of the market is slightly inappropriate: 1)</b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.<b>2）</b>The continued slowdown in rate hike is related to two factors: inflation has eased; Interest rate-sensitive sectors have reacted to rate hike, but there is a lagging impact of monetary policy that has not yet been fully manifested and needs to be observed.<b>3）</b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate. Before the announcement of the Fed's interest rate resolution, the market's expectation for the Fed's operation was that this interest rate meeting would be 25BP in rate hike and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike would be stopped. The Fed would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. While admitting that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future. At most, it fulfilled the market expectations before the meeting.</p><p><b>Back to the economic fundamentals themselves: 1) Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicts that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 will be 0.50% year-on-year, and the published value will be 0.96%; In December, the Federal Reserve expected the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7%, but it actually was 3.5%. As long as the economic data does not take a sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal.<b>2) But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and a cyclical recession in the US economy is approaching.</b>We used the weights of financing cost, raw material cost and labor cost to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has dropped rapidly from its high level eight times. Only after 2011Q3 did the United States not experience negative economic growth. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced. 1) The \"demon\" hidden in the details:</b>M2 turned negative year-on-year for the first time since 1959. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. It can be seen that the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has affected economic factors by affecting money supply and credit derivation.<b>2) Under the dual constraints of shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, it has become more difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield center to move further downward.</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><b>In the past quarter, the United States has seen the best combination: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But the next few months may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent. Based on this, our judgments on various assets are as follows: 1)</b>The 10-year U.S. bond yield has entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>The 2-year U.S. bond yield continued to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrowed;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets, but internal factors are still the core contradictions of RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1.</b><b>Continue to slow down rate hike, market dovish interpretation</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 25BP and maintained its $95 billion/month shrinking balance sheet plan, in line with market expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve issued a statement on its February interest rate meeting, raising the federal funds target rate by 25BP to the range of 4.50%-4.75%, and stating that it will maintain the shrinking balance sheet pace of reducing its holdings of US $60 billion/month U.S. debt and US $35 billion/month MBS since September. change.</p><p><b>Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed's continued slowdown in rate hike this time is related to two factors: 1)</b>Acknowledging that inflation has eased (the FOMC stated in December that inflation remains high);<b>2）</b>Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate have reacted to rate hike, but monetary policy has lagging effects on economic activity, inflation and financial development that have not yet been fully manifested and need to be observed.</p><p><b>The market interprets it as dovish, but there seems to be a risk of poor expectations.</b>After the interest rate meeting, especially after Powell's speech, U.S. bond yields fell significantly, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and gold also performed to a certain extent. It seems that the market interpreted the Fed's continuous slowdown in rate hike as dovish. But<b>The Fed's operation did not exceed market expectations before the meeting, and the dovish interpretation may be slightly inappropriate.</b>Before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution on February 1, the market's operational expectation for the Federal Reserve was 25BP in rate hike at this interest rate meeting and 25BP in rate hike in March, and then the rate hike was stopped. The Federal Reserve would begin to consider cutting interest rates in November-December. After the announcement of the statement, while acknowledging that inflation is slowing down, Powell also expressed considerations such as inflation is still high and the job market is still resilient, and has not yet mentioned the timing of ending the shrinking balance sheet. In other words, there will be at least one rate hike in the future (If the data is still strong, the possibility of more rate hike cannot be ruled out, although this possibility is not high), this Fed interest rate meeting will fulfill the market expectations before the meeting at most.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7fa88496368b596b721f5d20e5ada3\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the future prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, we have three understandings: 1) The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy will have certain political considerations and will inevitably be targeted.</b>The Fed began to slow down after the mid-term elections. rate hike confirms the view that we have always emphasized since the end of August last year that \"the mid-term elections are a watershed for the Fed's monetary policy\", and it can be seen that the rhythm of the Fed's monetary policy has certain political considerations. Looking forward, the timing of interest rate cuts will most likely choose the time window that is most critical to the economy and politics, instead of releasing the signal of interest rate cuts immediately after the rate hike.<b>2) When the rate hike is coming to an end, poor expectations are most likely to occur, and Powell is worried about doing too little.</b>More (rate hike) or less (rate hike) depends entirely on high-frequency data. In answering a reporter's question, Powell even emphasized that the policy risk is \"doing too little has not effectively controlled inflation.\" If the U.S. employment data does not weaken significantly in the next 1-2 months, then not only is it certain that the 25BP rate hike will land in March, but the market may even revise the expectation that the rate hike will end after March and interest rate cuts will begin in Q4.<b>3) Market attention is about to turn to shrinking balance sheet.</b>Judging from the experience of 2018-2019, between ending the rate hike and starting to cut interest rates, the Fed still needs to end the shrinking balance sheet at the right time. If the market does not misjudge the Fed's price-based policy, then the attention of the subsequent market will turn to the influence of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>Furthermore, we need to answer three questions: What will be the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet? Has it been fully digested by the market? When does the U.S. economy need the Fed to cut interest rates?</b></p><p><b>Two,</b><b>Back to the economy itself first: short-term exceeding expectations, but approaching recession</b></p><p><b>Short-term employment and economic data both exceeded the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The Federal Reserve's December FOMC economic outlook predicted that the real GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022Q4 would be 0.50% year-on-year, but the final announced value was 0.96%; The December economic outlook also expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 3.7% by the end of the year, but the actual situation is 3.5%. In other words, the short-term strength of the U.S. economy is even better than the Fed's assessment, so as long as there is no sharp turn for the worse in the short term, the Fed does not need to give a looser signal. The market's current risk appetite seems to be overdone.</p><p><b>But in the medium term, corporate costs have plummeted, ISM non-manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the cyclical recession of the US economy is approaching.</b>Although we pointed out in our report \"The Resilience of the U.S. Economy and Its Implications for China's Liberalization\" on December 28, 2022 that in the past two years, under the background of labor shortages, low-and middle-income groups with low education backgrounds and lack of work experience before the epidemic It is easier to obtain high-paying jobs after the epidemic, thus enhancing the resilience of employment, consumption and economic data. But this does not prevent the U.S. economy from ushering in a cyclical recession. We used weights such as financing costs, raw material costs, and labor costs to fit the comprehensive average cost index of American enterprises. Since the 1970s, this indicator has fallen rapidly from its high level eight times, and the eight peaks appeared in 1974Q4, 1981Q2, 1990Q4, 2001Q3, and 2008Q3., 2011Q3 and 2022Q2. Previously, after the comprehensive average cost index of U.S. enterprises peaked and fell rapidly, only after 2011Q3, the U.S. did not experience negative economic growth, and the remaining six U.S. economies all experienced negative growth. This reflects that the slowdown in aggregate demand is the end of rate hike's crackdown on inflation. After the indicator peaked in 2022Q2, it fell rapidly from 2022Q3 to Q4, indicating that U.S. aggregate demand has begun to slow down. In addition, since the late 1990s, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI has only fallen below the boom-bust line during the economic recession stage. In December, the indicator was only 49.6, which also indicates the risk of recession in the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d20bbbc291c206368453d04800c27ebf\" tg-width=\"1029\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4071d0394b02a49b498cb9d78e97be\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. The shrinking balance sheet shock seems to be emerging: the most comfortable days are over, and the worst combination has surfaced</b></p><p><b>The \"devil\" hidden in the details: M2 turned negative year-on-year. Although it will accelerate the decline in inflation, it is also the result of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet.</b>In 2020H2, there were voices worried about high inflation in the United States in the market. The main logic is that M2 experienced a rare double-digit year-on-year growth. In February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was as high as 26.9%, the highest since data was available. Not surprisingly, from 2021H2 to 2022H1, the U.S. CPI rose as fast and sharply as a runaway horse year-on-year, with a high point of 9.1%, the highest since November 1981. In December 2022, the year-on-year growth of M2 in the United States dropped to-1.3%, the first time since 1959 that it turned negative.</p><p>If the high M2 in the United States after the epidemic contributes to inflation, then the year-on-year negative M2 theoretically means that U.S. inflation may fall faster and sharply than expected. This conclusion supports the Fed to quickly end its rate hike. But the question is why did the year-on-year growth rate of M2 turn negative? The answer is the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet. As shown in the chart below, each huge shock in the size of the Fed's balance sheet exacerbates the year-on-year volatility of M2. In March 2021, when the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped from the high point, it just corresponded to the inflection point of the Fed's balance sheet expansion rate. After the Fed ended its balance sheet expansion, the U.S. M2 growth dropped sharply, and the M2 growth turned negative at the same time, which is most likely the result of shrinking balance sheet. In other words, the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has influenced economic factors by influencing money supply and credit derivation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ce38069d10ff6a66f708905f4b18f2\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e15a7381a19ae0e1c4f36426f6a813\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Fed's price-based tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 2 years and less, while quantitative tools affect the yield of U.S. bonds with maturities of 10 years and more. At present, it is more difficult to see the yield center of 10-year U.S. bonds moving further downward.</b>Theoretically, in the context of increasing downside risks of economic recession and inflation, the 10-year U.S. bond yield center should move further down, approaching 3% or even lower. But supply and demand are likely to counter that trend. First of all, the Fed's rate hike and interest rate cuts will affect short-term U.S. bond yields more than directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields. However, quantitative tools such as QE and shrinking balance sheet directly affect long-term U.S. bond yields through changes in supply and demand. In addition, long-term U.S. debt demand factors also include the increase or decrease of U.S. debt holdings by non-U.S. central banks. The 10-year U.S. bond yield in 2022 will peak at 4.25%, which is significantly higher than our expectations at the beginning of last year. However, this is not driven by the Fed's rate hike, but by economic factors (including high inflation), the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks. The result of reducing holdings of U.S. debt resonance. The 10-year U.S. bond yield has dropped from 4.25% to 3.39% in the past three months or so, indicating that the market has taken more into account the impact of cooling economic factors. However, the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and non-U.S. central banks have reduced their holdings of U.S. bonds and raised the debt ceiling in the future. The impact on the supply and demand structure of long-term U.S. bonds has not yet been fully reflected. Although it is difficult for the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rebound during the economic recession, the continued reduction of U.S. bond holdings by the Federal Reserve and non-U.S. central banks has also left the 10-year U.S. bond yield not much room for decline for the time being.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f03d31965149c1bc8626adce4e6175\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>It can be seen that the United States has seen the best combination in the past quarter: the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply; But in the next 1-2 quarters, the United States may face the worst combination: the economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains indifferent.</b></p><p><b>4. The last decline in U.S. stocks may begin</b></p><p>In the second half of last year, we have been saying that the U.S. stock market will experience the last decline caused by killing performance, but it has never happened. The reason is that the resilience of the U.S. economy still exists and the market has early taken into account the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift. In particular, the rebound in U.S. stocks in the past quarter just reflects that \"the economy has not yet declined, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield has fallen sharply.\" Therefore, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index has returned to 29.92 times historical highs. If, as we predict, the U.S. financial market environment will face the worst combination in the next 1-2 quarters: \"The economy begins to decline, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is constrained by factors such as the Federal Reserve shrinking balance sheet and the center is difficult to move down further.\" Then, U.S. stocks are bound to start the last drop to kill performance.</p><p>Based on this, our judgment on various assets in the next few months is:<b>1）</b>Long-term U.S. bond yields have entered a period of volatility, and the fluctuation range may be 3.2 ~ 3.5%;<b>2）</b>Short-term U.S. bond yields continue to fall, and the long-term and short-term inversion narrows;<b>3）</b>U.S. stocks started the last drop to kill performance;<b>4）</b>The US Dollar Index may fluctuate in the 100-103 range;<b>5）</b>The above factors have certain negative disturbances to RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r4uvMuadJSAvwYYod3SbBA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115990913","content_text":"美联储价格型政策影响短端美债，数量型政策影响中长端美债。海外资产对美联储加息收敛乃至结束加息的定价已充分，但缩表冲击尚未反应。此前海外市场处于最佳组合：美国经济尚未衰退、10Y美债收益率大幅回落；未来数月或将面临最差组合：美国经济开始衰退、10Y美债收益率反而无动于衷。继续降速加息，市场的鸽派解读略显不妥：1）美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。2）继续降速加息与两点因素有关：通胀有所缓和；利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。3）美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次，本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。回到经济基本面本身：1）短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，公布值为0.96%；12月美联储预期失业率反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。只要短期内经济数据没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。2）但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面。1）藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，为1959年以来首次，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。可见，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。2）缩表与非美央行减持美债双重约束下，10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来数月或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。基于此，我们对于各类资产的判断如下：1）10年期美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）2年期美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动，但内因仍是人民币计价资产的核心矛盾。正文一、继续降速加息，市场鸽派解读美联储宣布加息25BP，维持950亿美元/月缩表计划，符合市场预期。美联储发布2月议息会议声明，上调联邦基金目标利率25BP至4.50%-4.75%区间，并表示维持9月以来减持600亿美元/月美债和350亿美元/月MBS的缩表节奏不变。结合鲍威尔讲话来看，美联储本次继续降速加息与两点因素有关：1）承认通胀有所缓和（12月FOMC的表态是通胀仍居高不下）；2）房地产等利率敏感部门已经对加息做出反应，但货币政策对经济活动、通胀和金融发展存在滞后影响，尚未充分显现，需要观察。市场解读为鸽派，但似乎存在预期差风险。议息会议后，特别是鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益率明显回落、美股大涨、黄金也有一定表现，看上去市场将美联储连续减速加息解读为鸽派。但美联储操作并未超出会议前的市场预期，鸽派解读恐怕略显不妥。2月1日美联储议息决议公布前，市场对于美联储的操作预期就是本次议息会议加息25BP、3月加息25BP，随后停止加息，11-12月美联储将开始考虑降息。在声明公布后，鲍威尔在承认通胀放缓之余，亦表达了通胀仍高、就业市场仍有韧性等考虑，并且尚未提及结束缩表的时机，换言之，未来至少还会加息1次（如果数据仍强劲，不排除更多次加息的可能性，尽管这一可能性不高），本次美联储议息会议最多是兑现了会前的市场预期。关于美联储货币政策未来前景，我们有三点理解：1）美联储政策节奏会有一定政治考量，必然会有的放矢。中期选举后美联储就开始减速加息印证了去年8月底以来我们始终强调的观点“中期选举是美联储货币政策的分水岭”，并且由此可见，美联储货币政策节奏带有一定政治考量。往后看，降息时机大概率会选择对经济和政治最为关键的时间窗口，而不会在刚刚结束加息之际就立马释放降息信号。2）加息即将结束之际，最容易产生预期差，鲍威尔担心做得过少。多（加息）一点还是少（加息）一点完全取决于高频数据，鲍威尔在答记者问中甚至强调政策风险是“做得过少并未有效控制通胀”。假若未来1-2个月美国就业数据仍未明显转弱，那么不仅3月落地25BP加息是板上钉钉，市场甚至可能会修正3月后结束加息、Q4开始降息的预期。3）市场注意力即将转向缩表。从2018-2019年的经验看，在结束加息、开始降息之间，美联储还需要择时结束缩表，如果市场对美联储价格型政策没有误判，那么后续市场的注意力就会转向缩表影响。进而，我们需要回答三个问题：美联储缩表会有什么影响？是否已经被市场充分消化？美国经济何时需要联储降息？二、先回到经济本身：短期超预期，但正逼近衰退短期就业与经济数据均超美联储此前预期。美联储12月FOMC经济展望预计2022Q4美国实际GDP同比增速为0.50%，但最终公布值为0.96%；12月经济展望同时预期失业率年底反弹至3.7%，实际为3.5%。换言之，美国经济短期强劲程度甚至好于美联储的评估，那么只要短期内没有急转直下，美联储就无须给出更宽松信号。市场目前的风险偏好似乎有些过度了。但中期来看，企业成本骤降、ISM非制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，美国经济的周期性衰退正在逼近。尽管我们在22年12月28日报告《美国经济的韧性及对中国放开后的启示》中指出，过去两年在劳动力短缺背景下，疫前低教育背景、缺乏工作经验的中低收入群体在疫后更容易获得高薪职位进而增强了就业、消费与经济数据的韧性。但这并不妨碍美国经济即将迎来一次周期性衰退。我们用融资成本、原材料成本与人力成本等权重拟合了美国企业综合平均成本指数，70年代以来该指标有8次自高位快速回落，8个顶点分别出现在1974Q4、1981Q2、1990Q4、2001Q3、2008Q3、2011Q3以及2022Q2。此前，美国企业综合平均成本指数见顶快速回落后只有2011Q3后美国未现经济负增长，其余6次美国经济均现负增长。这反映了总需求放缓才是加息打压通胀的终点。2022Q2该指标见顶后2022Q3-Q4快速回落，预示了美国总需求开始放缓。此外，90年代末以来美国ISM非制造业PMI仅在经济衰退阶段才会跌破荣枯线，12月该指标仅为49.6，亦预示了美国经济的衰退风险。三、缩表冲击似乎正在显现：最舒服的日子已过，最差组合浮出水面藏在细节中的“恶魔”：M2同比转负，虽将加速通胀回落、但亦是联储缩表结果。2020H2市场中出现了担忧美国高通胀的声音，主要逻辑就是M2同比出现了罕见的两位数增长，2021年2月M2同比增幅更是高达26.9%，为有数据以来最高。不出意外，2021H2-2022H1美国CPI同比如脱缰野马般快速、大幅攀升，高点曾达到9.1%，为1981年11月后最高。2022年12月美国M2同增降至-1.3%，为1959年以来首次转负。假若疫后美国M2的高企助长了通胀，那么M2同比转负理论上意味着美国通胀可能会超预期、快速、大幅回落，这一结论支持美联储快速结束加息。但问题在于M2同比增速为何会转负？答案是美联储缩表。如下图所示，每次美联储资产负债表规模的巨震都会加剧M2同比波动。2021年3月M2同比增速自高点回落之际刚好对应着美联储扩表速率拐点，美联储结束扩表后美国M2同增骤降、而M2同增转负则大概率是缩表的结果。换言之，美联储缩表已经通过影响货币投放和信用派生对经济因素产生影响。美联储价格型工具影响2年及以下期限美债收益率、数量型工具则影响10年及以上期限美债收益率，目前看10年期美债收益率中枢进一步下移难度增加。理论上，在经济衰退与通胀下行风险双增的背景下，10年期美债收益率中枢应该进一步下移、逼近3%甚至更低水平。但供需关系可能会对抗这一趋势。首先，美联储加息与降息更多地影响短端美债收益率，不直接影响长端，但QE与缩表等数量型工具则通过供需变化直接影响长端美债收益率。此外，长端美债需求因素还包括非美央行增减持美债行为。2022年10年期美债收益率高点为4.25%，显著高于我们去年初的预期，但这并非联储加息驱动，而是由经济因素（包括高通胀）、美联储缩表与非美央行减持美债共振的结果。过去三个多月10年期美债收益率自4.25%降至3.39%表明市场更多地计入了经济因素降温的影响，但美联储缩表和非美央行减持美债以及未来上调债务上限对长端美债供需结构的影响尚未充分反应。尽管在经济衰退过程中，10年期美债收益率很难回升，但美联储及非美央行持续减持美债的动作也令10年期美债收益率暂时没有太多下降空间。由此可见，过去1个季度美国出现了最佳组合：经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落；但未来1-2个季度美国或将面临最差组合：经济开始衰退、10年期美债收益率反而无动于衷。四、美股最后一跌或将拉开帷幕去年下半年我们一直在说美股会出现杀业绩引发的最后一跌，但一直没有出现，原因就在于美国经济韧性尚存且市场早早计入了联储货币政策转向预期。特别是过去一个季度美股的反弹恰好映射了“经济尚未衰退、10年期美债收益率大幅回落”，因此，标普500指数的10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）重回29.92倍的历史高位。假若如我们所预计的，未来1-2个季度美国金融市场环境将面临最差组合“经济开始衰退，10年期美债收益率反而受联储缩表等因素约束中枢难以进一步下移”，那么，美股势必开启杀业绩的最后一跌。基于此，我们对于未来数月各类资产的判断是：1）长端美债收益率进入波动期，波动区间或在3.2~3.5%；2）短端美债收益率继续回落，长短端倒挂收窄；3）美股开启杀业绩的最后一跌；4）美元指数或在100-103区间波动；5）上述因素对于人民币计价资产存在一定负面扰动。风险提示：美联储货币政策，美经济与通胀形势超预期，全球疫情超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955855520,"gmtCreate":1675351077660,"gmtModify":1676538995884,"author":{"id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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$ &nbsp;</a>good👍🏻","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ good👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc52ed66048b6e101a3596b624454da7","width":"1440","height":"2932"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955855520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939904146,"gmtCreate":1662037562188,"gmtModify":1676536681716,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939904146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033066245,"gmtCreate":1646158170036,"gmtModify":1676534096783,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰💰","listText":"💰💰","text":"💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033066245","repostId":"2108576110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2108576110","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646139606,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2108576110?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 21:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How to get rid of the vicious circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108576110","media":"金十数据","summary":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when entering the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also a small rise and a sharp fall. What's more, it will fall all the way without any signs of rebound. How to get through such a frustrating stage? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some enlightenment from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually generally referred to as \"fund management\". Although such a reference is not rigorous, it is often universal in the trading circle. So what is position management? As the name suggests, it is managing the positions in your hands. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position status, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. The definition of this in Baidu Encyclopedia is: in the risk market, risks are controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment funds.</p><p>Through the above statement, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Below we will start with<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mentality issues in position management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>1. The importance and necessity of position management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations are used to participate in the market regularly, otherwise position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is very simple. Just like you are playing poker, the criteria for folding and raising each time should be the same. Otherwise, who can tell for sure whether you will only add a small bet when you win, but place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state and price the market will be at some point in the future. Even if someone does it in a short period of time, it must be deceived. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never be predicted, is there any reason for you to spend all your funds on position holding?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profits without holding a heavy position? One thing you need to pay attention to is that risks and profits coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profits, and at the same time untie the rope that binds risks. Especially in the novice stage, uncontrolled investment is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to liquidate positions when there is no way to guarantee the winning rate.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to pursue profits, just like the sentence quoted from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only take a heavy position when we are quite certain, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is an important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong trying to invest in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a perfect trading system. Although it can't get you out of the \"small profit\" for the time being, position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a symbolic victory in the whole trading process: your funds finally no longer There is a lot of outflow.</p><p>2. How to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"world outlook\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate, it just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunities to get their own wave of market. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with each person's trading time period, psychological endurance and basis for entry and exit.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high winning rate, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions when conducting trend trading to reduce the cost of trial orders. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they must continue to increase positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to ensure the maximum profit. Of course, short-term traders' stop losses are very strict, which is in Another level reduces the risks brought by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this goal, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your funds into the market. Especially at the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the loss, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but be sure to ensure that the same standard entry is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to occur<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light positions, the embarrassing situation of heavy positions when losing money.</p><p>2. Accidental continuous losses in transactions are normal. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions of the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 orders could have been opened, but after several consecutive losses, only 90 orders can be opened. It will be more difficult than 100 orders to return the funds to the original level.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy of adding or subtracting positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The ever-changing market is likely to have a market trend that allows us to increase or reduce our positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management to include increasing or decreasing positions. The content is in it.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, according to what percentage ratio, the position must be opened, and under what circumstances should the position be increased or reduced according to what percentage ratio? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed based on personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position according to their own relevant data. management strategy.</p><p>So what data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I have made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative, what are the losses you can accept each time, and what are the stop loss points in your trading system corresponding to these losses. The acceptable loss amount is the amount of losses you can bear at one point. These amounts are higher than the fluctuation price per point of the previous hand, which is the number of lots you open in a single entry.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate provided by trading techniques, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning percentage and profit-loss ratio are twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will have died tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part, it is an integral part of the entire trading system. We only discussed position management and various related factors above, but this does not mean that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality issues in position management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"world outlook\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next step is the issue of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to deal with them well. If your position management has been inspired by the above part, or has solved the previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easy.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentality that often appear in position management: when making money, if only I could have done a full position; When I lost money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be questions such as do you want to increase your position? Increase your position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten up your position? Forget it, it's better to lighten up your positions and run away and wait for your mental state, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to completely follow the designed management model without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that simple to actually do, so what should we do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the position management strategy and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to ask you to make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible as fixed and careful as possible. For example, if an operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you use rules to firmly lock your heart.</p><p>However, the rules still depend on discipline to complete the implementation, so we must abide by the established discipline, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can gain some ideas about position management from it, which will definitely be beneficial to your trading path. Finally, I hope everyone's transaction goes smoothly and takes it all up and down.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to get rid of the vicious circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to get rid of the vicious circle of \"small profit and big loss\"? Position management is key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-01 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Many traders will always experience the stage of \"small profits and big losses\" when entering the market. The performance of the capital curve at this stage is also a small rise and a sharp fall. What's more, it will fall all the way without any signs of rebound. How to get through such a frustrating stage? How to break the strange phenomenon that funds are exhausted in \"small profits and big losses\"? Maybe it can give you some enlightenment from the perspective of position management. Position management is usually generally referred to as \"fund management\". Although such a reference is not rigorous, it is often universal in the trading circle. So what is position management? As the name suggests, it is managing the positions in your hands. The maximum number of positions that your account funds can support is your full position status, and the ratio of the number of positions you actually hold to the number of full positions is the so-called position ratio. The definition of this in Baidu Encyclopedia is: in the risk market, risks are controlled by limiting the proportion of single investment funds.</p><p>Through the above statement, everyone should have a more accurate understanding of \"position management\". Below we will start with<b>The necessity of position management, how to manage positions, and mentality issues in position management</b>Three aspects to explain how to solve the problem of \"small profit and big loss\" from this level.</p><p>1. The importance and necessity of position management</p><p>The premise of studying position management must be that the trading methods are consistent, and one or several combinations are used to participate in the market regularly, otherwise position management will lose its meaning, which needs to be mentioned earlier. The reason is very simple. Just like you are playing poker, the criteria for folding and raising each time should be the same. Otherwise, who can tell for sure whether you will only add a small bet when you win, but place a heavy bet when you lose.</p><p>No one can accurately predict what kind of state and price the market will be at some point in the future. Even if someone does it in a short period of time, it must be deceived. Don't trust anyone who claims to be able to predict the market when fighting in the market. In this way, the uncertainty of the market is obvious in front of us. Since the market can never be predicted, is there any reason for you to spend all your funds on position holding?</p><p>At this point, you may say, how can you make enough profits without holding a heavy position? One thing you need to pay attention to is that risks and profits coexist. You amplify the possibility of chasing profits, and at the same time untie the rope that binds risks. Especially in the novice stage, uncontrolled investment is undoubtedly one of the fastest ways to liquidate positions when there is no way to guarantee the winning rate.</p><p>Position management is a preventive measure about risks, not a means for you to pursue profits, just like the sentence quoted from Baidu Encyclopedia at the beginning of the article. Many successful predecessors often tell us that we can only take a heavy position when we are quite certain, and even this is based on the premise of making stop loss preparations in advance. After all, survival is an important support for making profits in the market.</p><p>It can be seen that position management is essential in the market game. You can never go wrong trying to invest in smaller positions before you can't interpret market signals well and establish a perfect trading system. Although it can't get you out of the \"small profit\" for the time being, position management with stop loss can at least help you intercept the \"big loss\", which is a symbolic victory in the whole trading process: your funds finally no longer There is a lot of outflow.</p><p>2. How to manage positions?</p><p>If these mentioned above are the so-called \"world outlook\", then let's discuss the \"methodology\" of position management in this part. First of all, there is one thing that everyone needs to understand: position control can't solve the problem of low winning rate, it just makes traders die slowly, so that they have enough time and opportunities to get their own wave of market. It can be seen that position management cannot be discussed separately, but should be combined with each person's trading time period, psychological endurance and basis for entry and exit.</p><p>For example, trend traders usually don't have a high winning rate, but the profit-loss ratio is quite large. This requires strict control of positions when conducting trend trading to reduce the cost of trial orders. Once the trial orders are successful and profitable, they must continue to increase positions to improve their profit-loss ratio to make up for the disadvantages of low winning rate. Short-term traders rely on high winning rate and low profit-loss ratio to achieve profits, so they need to improve their capital utilization rate to ensure the maximum profit. Of course, short-term traders' stop losses are very strict, which is in Another level reduces the risks brought by heavy positions.</p><p>The purpose of position management is to cut off losses and let profits run. In order to achieve this goal, some principles need to be followed:</p><p>1. Never put all your funds into the market. Especially at the novice stage or in a state of \"small profit and big loss\" for a long time, putting all the funds into the market will not only enlarge the loss, but also affect the mentality of traders to a certain extent. Of course, short-term traders can try to attack heavily when the stop loss is firm and the profit-loss ratio is reasonable, but be sure to ensure that the same standard entry is to open the same position, otherwise it is very likely to occur<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>Light positions, the embarrassing situation of heavy positions when losing money.</p><p>2. Accidental continuous losses in transactions are normal. Position management must ensure that after continuous losses, the remaining funds can open positions of the same number of lots. If this principle cannot be followed, it is very likely that 100 orders could have been opened, but after several consecutive losses, only 90 orders can be opened. It will be more difficult than 100 orders to return the funds to the original level.</p><p>3. There must be a scientific strategy of adding or subtracting positions. Although trading is a game of probability from a mathematical point of view, it is by no means a static model. The ever-changing market is likely to have a market trend that allows us to increase or reduce our positions after we enter the market once. At this time, your winning rate and profit-loss ratio are also changing, which requires your position management to include increasing or decreasing positions. The content is in it.</p><p>Is there a general rule for specific position management that is accurate to numbers? For example, according to what percentage ratio, the position must be opened, and under what circumstances should the position be increased or reduced according to what percentage ratio? Unfortunately, no! As mentioned at the beginning of this part, position management should be designed based on personal entry and exit basis and psychological endurance. Here we can only provide you with an idea. Everyone needs to complete the position according to their own relevant data. management strategy.</p><p>So what data or reference items do you need to set your own position management strategy? I have made the following statistics here for your reference:</p><p>1. Your own risk appetite. You need to determine whether you are aggressive or conservative, what are the losses you can accept each time, and what are the stop loss points in your trading system corresponding to these losses. The acceptable loss amount is the amount of losses you can bear at one point. These amounts are higher than the fluctuation price per point of the previous hand, which is the number of lots you open in a single entry.</p><p>2. The winning rate of trading techniques. Your position management must be determined in combination with the winning rate provided by trading techniques, so as to ensure that your funds can survive the loss part under a normal proportion of profits and losses.</p><p>3. The risk-reward ratio of the transaction is the so-called profit-loss ratio. Winning percentage and profit-loss ratio are twins, which I have mentioned in many previous articles. With the cooperation of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, your position management must be able to withstand the \"worst period\" in trading, otherwise you will have died tragically in the dark night before dawn before you reach the dawn in your own trading system.</p><p>In short, position management is not an independent and static part, it is an integral part of the entire trading system. We only discussed position management and various related factors above, but this does not mean that the trading system is just that. The entry and exit strategy and position management in the trading system complement each other, and both are indispensable.</p><p>3. Mentality issues in position management</p><p>The first two parts tell you the \"world outlook\" and \"methodology\" of position management respectively, and the next step is the issue of consciousness. Before the problems in the above two parts are solved, the mentality must not be able to deal with them well. If your position management has been inspired by the above part, or has solved the previous problems, then the problem of mentality is relatively easy.</p><p>There are only two kinds of mentality that often appear in position management: when making money, if only I could have done a full position; When I lost money, if only I could have tried it lightly. Of course, there will also be questions such as do you want to increase your position? Increase your position and take a gamble! Or do you want to lighten up your position? Forget it, it's better to lighten up your positions and run away and wait for your mental state, but the latter is a derivative of the former.</p><p>When managing positions, the best state is to completely follow the designed management model without any subjective factors. This is easy to say, but it is not that simple to actually do, so what should we do?</p><p>There is no shortcut, that is, make the position management strategy and other parts of the matching trading system as detailed as possible, without giving yourself any room for subjective reverie.</p><p>Note that this is not to ask you to make the trading system complicated, but to tell everyone to make the trading system as simple as possible as fixed and careful as possible. For example, if an operation is based on an interval, then turn this interval into a certain value, or try to compress the range of the interval to find certainty in the system. Only in this way can you use rules to firmly lock your heart.</p><p>However, the rules still depend on discipline to complete the implementation, so we must abide by the established discipline, even if we use the self-reward and punishment mechanism.</p><p>The position management is coming to an end here. I hope you can gain some ideas about position management from it, which will definitely be beneficial to your trading path. Finally, I hope everyone's transaction goes smoothly and takes it all up and down.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70226&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108576110","content_text":"很多交易者进入市场总会经历“小赚大亏”的阶段，资金曲线在这个阶段的表现也是小涨急跌，更有甚者会是一路下跌，没有任何反弹的迹象。那这样一个让人沮丧的阶段该如何度过呢？怎么打破在“小赚大亏”中资金被消磨殆尽的怪象？也许从仓位管理的角度可以给你一些启示。仓位管理通常也会被笼统的称之为“资金管理”，虽然这样的代指并不严谨，但在交易圈内很多时候是可以通用的。那什么才是仓位管理呢？顾名思义就是管理你手中的头寸。你的账户资金可以支撑的最大头寸数就是你的满仓状态，你实际持有的头寸数和满仓数的比例就是所谓的仓位占比。在百度百科里对于此的定义是：风险市场中，通过限制单次投入资金的比例来控制风险。通过上面的表述，大家对“仓位管理”应该有一个较为准确的认知了，下面我们就从仓位管理的必要性、仓位如何管理、仓位管理中的心态问题三个方面来阐述应该如何从这一层面解决“小赚大亏”的问题。一、仓位管理的重要性与必要性研究仓位管理的前提一定是交易手法具有一致性，固定的使用一种或几种组合的形式参与市场，否则仓位管理就会失去其意义，这一点是需要说在前面的。其中的道理很简单，就像你在打扑克一样，每次弃牌和加注的标准应该一致，不然谁能说得准你会不会在赢得时候只加了很小的注，而在输的时候却下的是重注。没有人可以准确的预测到市场在未来某个时刻会是怎样的一种状态，表现为怎么的一个价格。即使有人在短期内做到了，那也肯定是蒙的，在市场中搏杀不要相信任何一个号称自己可以预测行情的人。如此一来，市场的不确定性就显而易见的摆在我们面前，既然市场永远无法预测，那你还有理由把全部的资金用于头寸持有吗？此时，你可能会说，不重仓持有怎么能博取足够的利润？有一点你需要注意，风险和利润是并存的，你放大了追逐利润的可能，与此同时也解开了束缚风险的绳索。尤其在新手阶段，没有办法保证胜率的情况下不加节制的投入资金无疑是爆仓最快的途径之一。仓位管理是一个关于风险的防范措施，并不是你追逐利润的手段，这正像文章开头引用百度百科的那句话。很多成功的前辈也经常会告诉我们，只有在相当确定的情况下才能重仓，即使这样也是建立在提前做好止损准备的前提下。毕竟生存下来才是在市场中获利的重要支撑。由此可以看出仓位管理在市场博弈中是必不可少的。在无法很好的解读市场信号，建立完善的交易系统之前投入较小的仓位尝试是永远不会错的。它虽然暂时无法让你摆脱“小赚”，但配合止损的仓位管理起码可以帮你截住“大亏”，这在交易的整个过程里都是一种标志性的胜利：你的资金终于不再大把的流出。二、仓位如何管理？前边说的这些如果是所谓的“世界观”，那这一部分我们来探讨一下仓位管理的“方法论”。首先有一点需要大家明白：仓位控制并不能解决胜率低的问题，它只是让交易者死的慢点，以便有足够的时间和机会去获取属于自己的那一波行情。由此可见，仓位管理不能单独来讨论，而是应该结合每个人交易的时间周期、心理承受能力和进出场依据。比如趋势交易者通常胜率不会太高，但盈亏比却是相当的大。这就要求在进行趋势交易时要严格的控制仓位来降低试单成本，一旦试单成功出现盈利就要不断加仓来提升自己的盈亏比以弥补胜率低的弊端。而短线交易者是依靠高胜率配合低盈亏比来实现盈利的，所以他需要提高自己的资金利用率来保证盈利的尽量最大化，当然短线交易者的止损都是非常严格的，这就在另一个层面降低了重仓所带来的风险。仓位管理的目的是斩断亏损，让利润奔跑，为了实现这一目的需要遵循一些原则：1、永远都不要把你的全部资金投入市场。尤其在新手阶段或者长期处于“小赚大亏”的状态中时，把全部资金投入市场不仅会让亏损放大，也会在一定程度上影响交易者的心态。当然，短线交易者在止损坚决并且盈亏比合理的情况下可以尝试重仓出击，但务必保证同一标准的进场是开立相同的仓位，不然很有可能出现盈利时轻仓，亏损时重仓的尴尬局面。2、在交易中出现偶然性的连续亏损是正常的，仓位管理必须保证在连续亏损后，剩余资金还可以开立相同手数的头寸。如果这一原则无法遵循，那就很有可能出现原本可以开100手单，连续几次亏损后就只能开立90手单了，90手的单量想要将资金打回原来的水平会比100手单更加艰难。3、要有科学的加减仓策略。交易虽然在数学的角度来看是一个概率的游戏，但它绝不是一个静态的模型。时刻变化着的市场在我们一次入场后很可能会出现让我们加仓或者减仓的行情走势，这个时候你的胜率和盈亏比也在发生着变化，这就需要你的仓位管理包括加减仓的内容在其中。那具体仓位管理有没有精确到数字上的通用法则呢？比如一定按照百分之多少的比例开仓，怎样的情况下按照几成的比例加仓或者减仓？很可惜，没有！在这一部分的开始就已经说过了，仓位管理是要结合个人的进出仓依据、心理承受能力来设计的，这里只能为你提供一种思路，大家需要根据自己的相关数据来进行完成仓位的管理策略。那设定属于自己的仓位管理策略需要依据哪些数据或者参考项呢？我在这里做了如下统计，供诸位参考：1、自己的风险偏好。你要确定你是激进型的还是保守型的，你每次可以接受的亏损是多少，这些亏损对应你交易系统中的止损点数又是多少，可以接受的亏损额比上止损点数就是你一个点可以承受的亏损数额，这些数额比上单手每点波动价格就是你单次入场开仓的手数了。2、交易手法的胜率。你的仓位管理一定要结合交易手法所能提供的胜率来确定，这样才能保证正常比例的盈亏次数下你的资金可以挺过亏损的部分。3、交易的风险报酬比，也就是所谓的盈亏比。胜率和盈亏比是一对双生子，这个在之前很多文章里我都有提到过。在胜率和盈亏比的配合下，你的仓位管理一定要是能抗得过交易中“最坏的时期”，不然你还没有走到自己交易系统中的黎明就已经惨死在黎明前的黑夜里了。总之，仓位管理不是独立静态的部分，它是整个交易系统的组成部分。上面我们只讨论了仓位管理以及与之相关的各方面因素，但并不是说交易系统就仅仅如此。交易系统中的进出仓策略和仓位管理相辅相成，二者缺一不可。三、仓位管理中的心态问题前面两个部分分别告诉了大家仓位管理的“世界观”和“方法论”，接下来就是意识层面的问题了。在上面两个部分的问题没有解决好之前心态方面也必定是不能很好应对的。如果你的仓位管理已经从上述部分中有所启发，或是已经解决了之前的问题，那心态的问题就相对容易一些了。在仓位管理中经常出现的心态无非就两种：赚钱时，要是我当初能满仓干就好了；亏钱时，要是我当初能轻仓试一试就好了。当然，也会有诸如要不要加仓？加仓赌一把吧！或者要不要减仓？算了，还是赶紧减仓跑路吧等心理状态，不过后者是前者的衍生品了。在进行仓位管理时，最好的状态是自己完全按照已经设计好的管理模式去执行，没有任何的主观因素。这一点说起来容易，但实际做起来并没有那么简单，那该怎么办呢？没有什么捷径，就是把仓位的管理策略和与之相匹配的交易系统中其他部分做的尽量详细，不给自己任何主观遐想的空间。注意，这不是让你把交易系统做的错综复杂，而是告诉大家把尽量简单的交易系统做的尽量固定和仔细。比如某一项操作依据是一个区间性的，那就把这个区间变成确定的数值，亦或是尽量压缩区间的范围来寻找系统中的确定性，只有这样才能用规则把自己的心牢牢锁住。不过，规则还是要靠纪律来完成执行的，所以，一定要遵守已经制定好的纪律，哪怕使用自我的奖惩机制。关于仓位管理说到这里也即将结束了，希望大家从中可以收获一些关于仓位管理的思路，这对于大家的交易之路必将是有所裨益的。最后希望大家交易顺利，涨跌通吃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097412137,"gmtCreate":1645529000257,"gmtModify":1676534036128,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097412137","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097661560,"gmtCreate":1645445177639,"gmtModify":1676534028464,"author":{"id":"3581989768565324","authorId":"3581989768565324","name":"集韩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9635fb33f642bba354420841f1ba0ef8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581989768565324","idStr":"3581989768565324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/90976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14:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179897507","media":"点拾投资","summary":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has undergone a relatively large adjustment, which has also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today I will share an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my good friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how excellent a company is, there will be a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel reality of the market, that is, whether it is a long-term upward market or a long-term upward company, it will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is similar to our current market environment. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we, as investors, have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors because of it. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good reference on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to take a loss</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charley Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>There is no doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyle. If their shareholders can hold their stocks for a long time, these shareholders will also get huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns always come with risks. If you want to obtain huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual yield of 35.5%. This means that the initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 today. But in fact, in the past 20 years, it has been difficult to actually turn this $1,000 into $387,000. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market value. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, with a loss of $51,388.</p><p>That's why it's not easy to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Maybe you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world\", but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has compounded its yield of 38% since its listing in May 2002. But realizing this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can afford. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Are investors really able to tolerate their initial investment pullback/retracement over thirty times? Especially the 500% gain vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual yield of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investing experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has only fallen by more than 50% once, that is, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. Many investments couldn't stand this period when his stock price went into a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover volume reached 845 billion US dollars, while the average market value of Google at that time was less than 153 billion US dollars. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which made many investors lose the opportunity to obtain a 515% return in the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have made him get huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His wise and philosophical quotes are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about things from multiple angles with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2002, he said that \"people count too much and think too little\".</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets, namely, entry, exit and too difficult\". Investors should follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we will turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than this?\".</p><p>Today, there are many new products emerging in our market for investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in a dilemma is like the following conversation I had with the fishing tackle owner revealed. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really take the bait because of this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pioneer a legal career. During Munger's early investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His enthusiasm for investing was completely ignited in 1959, when Ed Davis (Ed Davis) introduced him to Buffett as one of his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to care too much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor Davis trusts wholeheartedly. They are so alike that Davis once filled in Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off immediately. After years of communicating, learning and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund Company (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% annually before fee rates. Especially when you look at it in combination with the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more valuable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500 index (including Dividend) has only gained 6.6% in the same time frame. During the 14 years of the entire fund's existence, Munger's average annual return rate was 24%, and the compound return rate was 19.82%, which was much higher than the index. During the same period, the compound return rate of the S&P 500 Index (including Dividend) was only 5.2%. Munger's limited partners will also be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this matter is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains short-term periodic large losses. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two or three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not suitable for investing, and you can only get relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market fluctuations</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure.\" Of course, Munger is not only as simple as focus, his focus is based on diversified thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its money was invested in blue-chip stamping companies. In the worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company caused serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The sales of blue-chip printing companies exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decrease. By 1982, sales plummeted to 9 million dollars, and by 2006, they were only 25,000 dollars. \"Considering the initial business of blue-chip printing company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure \"\".</p><p>However, as an important asset invested by the fund, the blue-chip printing company later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow Jones Average). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of the truly undervalued value, but the market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value. It was a tough experience-1973-1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone, it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The 1973-1974 bear market, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost his largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound rate of return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its entire life cycle, even after experiencing a brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth may also have a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones index has grown 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement of more than 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell more than 90%, and it was not until 1955 that it returned to the high of 1929. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Index experienced two sharp pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the technology bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we want to seek high returns on investment, then huge losses are destined to be part of it, no matter whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"We are passionate about keeping things simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it doesn't keep you away from losing money. Even a portfolio with a 50/50 stock and bond allocation lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffers absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock fell more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, a pullback/retracement is a downward move from a high. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway dropped more than 20% after hitting an all-time high 6 times.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, i.e. your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when Internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also cost them. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 has risen 270% over the same period! In a 1999 letter from Berkshire Hathaway to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern. During the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you are investing in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At that time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to continue to compound growth in the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We can't play chess blindfolded or become piano players. But our achievements are remarkable, because we have an advantage in temperament, which is enough to make up for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. The loss is inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that the stock has fallen by more than 50%, which will undoubtedly happen in the future, please make sure that you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Suppose your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand to lose more than $30,000. Suppose if the value of the stock is reduced by half and the bond will retain the value (this is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way, even if these 60% assets fall by half, you should be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Munger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMunger: How to face the huge pullback/retracement in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/67\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe5d79ff06041f8a434a6ad9836f2e6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">点拾投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-21 14:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>During this period, the market has undergone a relatively large adjustment, which has also led to a pullback/retracement in many people's investment portfolios. So how do investment gurus face pullback/retracement? Today I will share an article about how Charlie Munger faced pullback/retracement translated by my good friend and excellent fund manager Huang Yun in 2019. Even today, it is particularly appropriate. This also shows from the side that no matter how excellent a company is, there will be a huge pullback/retracement every few years.<b>Foreword:</b></p><p>The content of this chapter describes a slightly cruel reality of the market, that is, whether it is a long-term upward market or a long-term upward company, it will inevitably experience large downward fluctuations, which is similar to our current market environment. How to face market losses calmly is quite difficult for any investor, because we have to consider not only the volatility of the investment portfolio, but also the feelings of fund holders. The demands of these two aspects are also contradictory in some extremely downward market environments. Maybe we, as investors, have the ability to bear market losses, but we may lose our investors because of it. As a great investment mentor, Munger's personal experience gives us a good reference on how to really have patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when suffering losses and facing adversity.</p><p><b>Learn to take a loss</b></p><p><i><b>You need patience, discipline, and the ability not to go crazy even when you suffer losses and adversity.</b></i></p><p><i><b>-Charley Munger, 2005</b></i></p><p>There is no doubt,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Are the three most successful companies in the past decade. Their products have profoundly changed our lifestyle. If their shareholders can hold their stocks for a long time, these shareholders will also get huge investment returns. However, one of the oldest financial laws is that returns always come with risks. If you want to obtain huge investment returns, you are also destined to bear the risks that come with it.</p><p>Since its initial listing in 1997, Amazon's stock price has risen by as much as 38,600%, equivalent to a compound annual yield of 35.5%. This means that the initial investment of $1,000 will become $387,000 today. But in fact, in the past 20 years, it has been difficult to actually turn this $1,000 into $387,000. Historically, Amazon's stock price has fallen by more than 50% three times. The first time was from December 1999 to October 2001, when it lost 95% of its market value. During that time, the initial hypothetical $1,000 investment would fall from a high of $54,433 to $3,045, with a loss of $51,388.</p><p>That's why it's not easy to say that being able to buy and hold a long-term winner. Maybe you do know that \"Amazon is going to change the world\", but even that doesn't make investing any easier.</p><p>Another revolutionary company, Netflix, has compounded its yield of 38% since its listing in May 2002. But realizing this return is almost beyond the investment discipline that people can afford. Netflix's stock price has fallen by more than 50% four times, and it fell by more than 82% between July 2011 and September 2012. This equates to an initial investment of $1,000 rising to $36,792 and then shrinking to $6,629. Are investors really able to tolerate their initial investment pullback/retracement over thirty times? Especially the 500% gain vanished in just 14 months!</p><p>Google is the youngest of the three, with a compounded annual yield of 25% since going public in 2004. He offers investors a better investing experience than holding Amazon or Netflix. Google's share price has only fallen by more than 50% once, that is, between November 2007 and November 2008, when it fell by 65%. Many investments couldn't stand this period when his stock price went into a sharp pullback/retracement. During these 264 days, Google's turnover volume reached 845 billion US dollars, while the average market value of Google at that time was less than 153 billion US dollars. In other words, the stock changed hands 5.5 times during this period, which made many investors lose the opportunity to obtain a 515% return in the next eight years.</p><p>Charlie Munger has never been interested in investing in companies like Amazon, Netflix, and Google. But the companies he has invested in for a long time that have made him get huge investment returns have also experienced huge pullback/retracement in a short period of time. Munger,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Vice Chairman of Hathaway, known for being a longtime partner of Warren Buffett. His wise and philosophical quotes are collectively known as Mungerism.<b><i>He likes to think about things from multiple angles with different ways of thinking, and one of his famous quotes is \"If you know where I will die, then I will never go to that place\". At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2002, he said that \"people count too much and think too little\".</i></b></p><p>One thing that separates Munger from most of us mediocre people is that he will never be attracted to investments outside his circle of competence. He once said, \"We have three baskets, namely, entry, exit and too difficult\". Investors should follow his advice \"If the investment target is too difficult to analyze, we will turn to other investment targets. Is there anything simpler than this?\".</p><p>Today, there are many new products emerging in our market for investors, and these products are like those purple and green fishing baits: I think the reason why our investment management is in a dilemma is like the following conversation I had with the fishing tackle owner revealed. I asked him, \"My God, these purple and green baits! Do fish really take the bait because of this?\", and he said, \"Sir, I don't sell fish\".</p><p>In 1948, Munger graduated from Harvard Law School and followed in his father's footsteps to successfully pioneer a legal career. During Munger's early investing career, he earned his first million dollars by investing in real estate projects. His enthusiasm for investing was completely ignited in 1959, when Ed Davis (Ed Davis) introduced him to Buffett as one of his first investors. Buffett was surprised that he easily got $100,000 from Ed Davis, because Davis didn't seem to care too much about Buffett's investment strategy. The reason for this is that Buffett is very similar to Charlie Munger, another investor Davis trusts wholeheartedly. They are so alike that Davis once filled in Munger's name on a check to Buffett.</p><p>Munger and Buffett hit it off immediately. After years of communicating, learning and sharing with Buffett, Munger and other partners founded a law firm in 1962 (Munger, Tolles & Olson; Charlie left in 1965), and he also founded a hedge fund Company (Wheeler, Munger & Company).</p><p>Munger's investment performance is remarkable. From 1962 to 1969, the fund returned an incredible 37.1% annually before fee rates. Especially when you look at it in combination with the market environment at that time, this achievement is even more valuable. In these eight years, picking stocks has not been a simple task. In fact, the S&P 500 index (including Dividend) has only gained 6.6% in the same time frame. During the 14 years of the entire fund's existence, Munger's average annual return rate was 24%, and the compound return rate was 19.82%, which was much higher than the index. During the same period, the compound return rate of the S&P 500 Index (including Dividend) was only 5.2%. Munger's limited partners will also be profitable if they can persist with Munger, but this matter is not as easy as holding Amazon all the time.</p><p>One of the best lessons investors can learn from past history is that there are no good times without bad times. A long-term investment often contains short-term periodic large losses. If you can't accept short-term losses, it will be difficult for you to reap long-term market returns. Munger said:</p><p><b><i>If you can't take two or three or more market declines of more than 50% in a century in stride, you are not suitable for investing, and you can only get relatively mediocre investment returns compared to investors who can rationally handle market fluctuations</i></b>。</p><p>Warren Buffett once commented on Munger: \"He is willing to accept greater ups and downs in performance, and he happens to be a person with a concentrated psychological structure.\" Of course, Munger is not only as simple as focus, his focus is based on diversified thinking at a higher level. At the end of 1974, 61% of its money was invested in blue-chip stamping companies. In the worst bear market since the Great Depression, this company caused serious damage to Munger's portfolio. The sales of blue-chip printing companies exceeded $124 million that year. But it soon began to decrease. By 1982, sales plummeted to 9 million dollars, and by 2006, they were only 25,000 dollars. \"Considering the initial business of blue-chip printing company,\" I predicted that its sales would drop from $120 million to less than $100,000, so I predicted from the beginning that its business alone would almost be a failure \"\".</p><p>However, as an important asset invested by the fund, the blue-chip printing company later provided a large amount of funds for the acquisition of See's Candy, Buffalo Evening News and Wesco Financial Company, and was incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway in 1983.</p><p>Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (compared to-13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and 31.5% in 1974 (compared to-23.1% for the Dow Jones Average). Munger said, \"We were crushed by the market between 1973 and 1974, not because of the truly undervalued value, but the market value, because our publicly traded securities had to trade at less than half their true value. It was a tough experience-1973-1974 was a very unpleasant experience.\" Munger was not alone, it was a tough process for many great investors. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fell from $80 in December 1972 to $40 in December 1974. The 1973-1974 bear market, the S&P 500, fell 50% (the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.6%, straight back to 1958 levels).</p><p><b><i>The $1,000 invested with Charlie Munger from January 1, 1973 would become $467 by January 1, 1975. Even though the fund rose 73.2% in 1975, Munger lost his largest investor, which frustrated him and led him to make the decision to liquidate the fund.</i></b>This fund achieved a compound rate of return of 24.3% before deductions throughout its entire life cycle, even after experiencing a brutal historical period from 1973 to 1974.</p><p>It's not just those star stocks that will fall more than 50%. Those indexes with long-term compound growth may also have a pullback/retracement at some point. The Dow Jones index has grown 26,400% since 1914, including nine pullback/retracement of more than 30%. During the Great Depression, the Dow fell more than 90%, and it was not until 1955 that it returned to the high of 1929. As a blue-chip index, the Dow Jones Index experienced two sharp pullback/retracement in the first decade of the 21st century (a 38% drop during the bursting of the technology bubble and a 54% drop during the financial crisis).</p><p>For most ordinary investors like you and me, if we want to seek high returns on investment, then huge losses are destined to be part of it, no matter whether the investment cycle is a few years or a lifetime. Munger once said \"We are passionate about keeping things simple\". You can simplify everything you want, but it doesn't keep you away from losing money. Even a portfolio with a 50/50 stock and bond allocation lost 25% during the financial crisis.</p><p><b><i>There are several ways to deal with losses. The first is that the loss is absolute, that is, the loss of your investment.</i></b>In Munger's case, he rarely suffers absolute losses. During his time managing his hedge fund, he experienced a 53% decline, and his Berkshire Hathaway stock fell more than 20% on six occasions. For the unfamiliar, a pullback/retracement is a downward move from a high. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway dropped more than 20% after hitting an all-time high 6 times.</p><p><b><i>The second type of loss is relative, i.e. your opportunity cost.</i></b>In the late 1990s, when Internet stocks swept the country, Berkshire didn't invest in them. It also cost them. From June 1998 to March 2000, Berkshire fell 49%. What's more painful, however, is that Internet stocks continue to soar. The Nasdaq 100 has risen 270% over the same period! In a 1999 letter from Berkshire Hathaway to shareholders, Warren Buffett wrote that \"relative returns are our concern. During the same period, bad relative returns have resulted in unsatisfactory absolute returns.\"</p><p>Whether you are investing in stocks or indexes, bad relative returns are a problem to face in investing. During the five-year dot-com bubble, Berkshire Hathaway's earnings performance lagged the S&P 500 by 117%! At that time, many people questioned whether Munger and Buffett were out of touch with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>。</p><p>The reason why Munger's wealth has been able to continue to compound growth in the past 55 years is, in his own words:<i><b>Warren and I are not wizards. We can't play chess blindfolded or become piano players. But our achievements are remarkable, because we have an advantage in temperament, which is enough to make up for our lack of IQ.</b></i></p><p>You have to be able to take the loss in stride. The right time to sell is not after the stock price has fallen. If you invest this way, you may be doomed to not achieve good long-term returns. Learn from history and don't try to avoid losses. The loss is inevitable. Instead, you should focus on making sure you don't put yourself in a situation where you will be forced to sell. If you know that the stock has fallen by more than 50%, which will undoubtedly happen in the future, please make sure that you can face and bear such a situation in the future.</p><p>How to do it? Here's an example. Suppose your portfolio is worth $100,000 and you know you can't stand to lose more than $30,000. Suppose if the value of the stock is reduced by half and the bond will retain the value (this is definitely an assumption, there is no guarantee), then don't allocate more than 60% of the equity assets. That way, even if these 60% assets fall by half, you should be fine.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179897507","content_text":"导读：这段时间市场出现了比较大的调整，也导致许多人的投资组合有所回撤。那么投资大师又是如何面对回撤的呢？今天分享一篇2019年我的好友，也是很优秀的基金经理黄韵翻译过的一篇关于查理·芒格如何面对回撤文章。即便放到今天，也特别应景。这从侧面也看到无论是多么优秀的公司，每隔几年都会出现巨大的回撤。前言：这个章节的内容描述了一个略带残酷的现实市场，这就是无论是一个长期向上的市场还是一个长期向上的公司都难免会经历大幅的向下波动，这和我们当下所处的市场环境是何其的相似。而在遭受市场损失时如何从容面对，对于任何投资者而言都是相当不易的，因为我们不仅要考虑投资组合的波动率，我们还要考虑到基金持有人的感受。而这两方面的需求在某些极端下行的市场环境下也是相互矛盾的。也许我们作为投资人有能够承担市场损失的能力，但我们可能会因此失去我们的投资人。芒格作为伟大的投资导师，他的亲身经历给了我们很好的借鉴，如何真的拥有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。学会承受损失你需要有耐心、守纪以及即使遭受损失和身处逆境也不会疯掉的能力。-查理.芒格，2005毫无疑问，奈飞、亚马逊和谷歌是过去十年中最成功的三个公司。他们的产品深刻地改变了我们生活方式，如果他们的股东能够长期坚持持有他们的股票，这些股东们也将获得巨大的投资收益。然而，最古老的一条金融法则之一就是收益永远和风险相伴。如果你想要获得巨大的投资收益，你也注定要承担相伴而来的风险。自1997年首次上市以来，亚马逊股价涨幅高达38600％，相当于年复合收益率35.5％。 这意味着初始1000美元的投资到今天将变为$ 387,000。 但实际上在过去20年中，要真的将这1000美金变为387,000美元的难度不容小觑。历史上，亚马逊的股价曾有三次跌幅超过50%。第一次是从1999年12月到2001年10月，它跌去了95％的市值。在那段时间内，初始假设的1,000美元投资将会从54,433美元的高位下跌至3,045美元，损失51,388美元。这也就是为什么会说能够买入并持有一个长期的赢家其实并不简单。也许你确实知道“亚马逊将会改变世界”，但即便如此，也不会使投资变得更加容易。另一家革命性的公司奈飞，自2002年5月上市以来的复合收益率为38％。但实现这个收益也几乎超出了人所能承受的投资纪律。奈飞的股价曾有四次跌幅超过50%，其在2011年7月至2012年9月间跌幅超过82%。这相当于初始投资的1,000美元涨到36,792美元，然后萎缩到6,629美元。投资者真的能够忍受他们的初始投资回撤三十多次吗？特别是500%收益在短短14个月内烟消云散！谷歌是这三家公司中最年轻的公司，自2004年上市以来的年复合收益率为25％。他为投资者提供了一个比持有亚马逊或Netflix更好的投资体验。 谷歌的股价只有一次跌幅超过50%，就是在2007年11月至2008年11月间跌幅达到65%。当他的股价大幅回撤时，很多投资都无法忍受这段时期。在这264天内，谷歌的换手量达到8450亿美金，而当时谷歌的平均市值不到1530亿美金。也就是说，这段时间内股票被换手了5.5次，这使很多投资者失去了未来八年能够获得515%回报的机会。查理芒格从来没有对投资亚马逊、奈飞、谷歌这类公司感过兴趣。但他长期投资过的那些让他获得巨大投资收益的公司也曾在短时期内出现过巨大的回撤。芒格，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长，以作为沃伦巴菲特的长期合作伙伴而闻名。他那些富有智慧和哲理的名言被统称为芒格主义。他喜欢用不同的思维方式从多个角度思考问题，他的名言之一是“如果知道我会死在哪里，那我将永远不去那个地方”。在2002年伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会上他说“人们算得太多、想得太少”。将芒格和我们大部分平庸的人区分开的一点是他永远不会被他能力圈外的投资所吸引。他曾经说过“我们有三个篮子，分别是进入、退出、太难” 。投资者都应该遵循他的建议“如果投资标的太难分析，我们就转向其他的投资标的。还有比这更简单的事情吗？” 。今天，我们的市场上涌现出很多为投资者服务的新产品，这些产品就像那些紫色和绿色的鱼饵：我想我们的投资管理之所以陷入窘境的原因就像下面这个我和渔具老板的对话所揭示的道理那样。我问他：“我的天，这些紫的和绿的鱼饵！鱼真的会因此而上钩吗？”，他说：“先生，我不卖鱼” 。1948年，芒格毕业于哈佛大学法学院，并追随其父亲的脚步成功开拓了法律事业。在芒格的早期投资生涯中，他通过投资地产项目获得了他的第一个百万美元。1959年他的投资热情被彻底点燃，这一年埃德戴维斯（Ed Davis）作为巴菲特的第一批投资者将他介绍给了巴菲特。巴菲特惊讶于他很轻松的获得了埃德戴维斯的10万美金，因为戴维斯似乎并没有太在意巴菲特的投资策略。这其中的原因在于巴菲特很像戴维斯全心全意信任的另一位投资人查理芒格。他们两人如此之像以至于戴维斯曾经在给巴菲特的支票上填了芒格的名字。芒格和巴菲特一见如故。 在和巴菲特经过多年的沟通、相互学习和分享后，芒格在1962年和其他合伙人创办了一家律师事务所（Munger，Tolles＆Olson; 查理在1965年离开），同时他也创立了一个对冲基金公司（Wheeler，Munger＆Company）。芒格的投资业绩斐然。从1962年到1969年，该基金扣除费率之前的年均回报率达到令人难以置信的37.1％。尤其是当你结合当时的市场环境看的话，这个成绩更是显的难能可贵。在这八年中，挑选股票并不是件简单的事情。 事实上，标准普尔500指数（含股息）在同一时间内只上涨了6.6％。 在整个基金存续的14年内，芒格年均回报率为24％，复合收益率为19.82％，远高于指数，同期标准普尔500指数（含股息）复合收益率仅为5.2％。 芒格的有限合伙人如果能和芒格一道坚持下来也将收益丰厚，然而这件事就像一直坚持持有亚马逊公司一样并不那么容易。投资者从过往历史中可以学到的最好一条经验就是没有坏时光就没有好时光。在一段长期的投资中往往蕴含着短期阶段性的大幅损失。如果你不能接受短期的损失，那你很难收获长期的市场回报。芒格说过：如果你对于在一个世纪内发生两三次或者更多次市场超过50%下跌不能泰然处之，你就不适合做投资，并且和那些具有能理性处理市场波动的投资者相比也只能获得相对平庸的投资收益。沃伦巴菲特曾这样评价芒格：“他愿意接受业绩出现更大的起伏，他恰好是一位心理结构倾向集中的人”。当然芒格不仅是专注这么简单，他的专注是建立在更高层面上的多元化思考。1974年底，其61％的资金投资于蓝筹印花公司。在那个自大萧条以来最糟糕的熊市里，这个公司给芒格的投资组合带来了严重的损害。 蓝筹印花公司的销售额在当年超过了1.24亿美金。但是很快就开始减少，到1982年，销售额锐减至900万美元，到2006年仅为2.5万美金。 “考虑到蓝筹印花公司的初始业务，“我预测到其销售额将从1.2亿美金降到不足10万美金，所以我从开始就预测到了其业务单独看几乎就是一个会失败的业务””。然而蓝筹印花公司作为基金投资的重要的资产，在之后为收购喜诗糖果、布法罗晚报和韦斯科金融公司等提供了大量的资金，并于1983年被纳入伯克希尔哈撒韦公司旗下。芒格在1973年损失了31.9％（相比之下，道琼斯工业指数为-13.1％），在1974年损失了31.5％（相比之下道琼斯指数为-23.1％）。 芒格说：“我们在1973年到1974年间被市场碾压了，并不是因为被真实低估的价值，而是市场价值，因为我们的公开交易证券不得不在低于他们真正价值的一半价格下交易。 “这是一段艰难的经历 -- 1973年至1974年是一个非常不愉快的经历。”芒格并不孤单，对许多伟大的投资者来说，这都是一个很艰难的过程。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司从1972年12月的80美元跌至1974年12月的40美元。1973年至1974年的熊市标准普尔500指数下跌50％（道琼斯工业指数下跌46.6％，直接回到1958年的水平）。与查理芒格一起从1973年1月1日开始投资的1,000美元到1975年1月1日将变为467美元。即使该基金在1975年上涨了73.2%，但芒格还是失去了其最大的投资人，这让他感到沮丧，并使他做出了清算基金的决定。这只基金在其整个生命周期即使经历了从1973年到1974年的残酷历史时期也获得了扣费前24.3%的复合收益率。不仅仅是那些明星股票会跌幅超过50%。那些长期复合增长的指数在某一个点上也都可能会发生回撤。道琼斯指数自1914年以来增长了26400%，其中包含了9次超过30%的回撤。在大萧条期间道指跌幅超过90%，直到1955年才回到1929年的那个高点。道琼斯指数作为蓝筹股指数在二十一世纪的第一个十年内就发生过两次大幅回撤（科技泡沫破灭期跌幅38%，金融危机期间跌幅54%）。对于像你我这样大多数普通的投资者而言，如果我们要寻求高额的投资回报，那么巨大亏损注定也是其中的一个部分，无论投资周期是几年还是一生。芒格曾经说过“我们热衷于保持简单” 。你可以简化你想要的一切，但这并不会使你远离亏损。即使是50/50的股票和债券配置的投资组合在金融危机期间也损失了25%。有几种方法来处理损失。第一是损失是绝对的，即你的投资损失。在芒格的例子里，他很少有绝对损失。在他管理他的对冲基金期间，他经历过53%的下跌，他持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票有过6次跌幅超过20%。对于不熟悉的人来说，回撤就是从高点开始的下行。换句话说，伯克希尔哈撒韦创历史新高后下跌超过20%的情况发生了6次。第二种类型的损失是相对的，即你的机会成本。 在九十年代末期，当互联网股票席卷全国时，伯克希尔并没有对其进行投资。这也让他们付出了代价。 从1998年6月到2000年3月，伯克希尔下跌了49%。 然而更痛苦的是，互联网股票在持续飙升。同期纳斯达克100指数上涨了270％！ 在1999年伯克希尔哈撒韦致股东的信中，沃伦巴菲特写道“相对收益是我们关心的问题，在同期，不好的相对收益造成了并不令人满意的绝对收益”。无论你是投资股票还是指数，不好的相对收益都是投资中要面对的一个问题。在五年的互联网泡沫中，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的收益表现落后于标准普尔500指数117％！当时很多人质疑芒格和巴菲特是否脱节与新世界。芒格的财富之所以能够在过去55年内持续复合增长的原因，用他自己的话说就是：沃伦和我并非奇才。我们不能蒙上眼睛下棋或成为钢琴演奏家。但我们的成绩斐然，因为我们在性情上占优势，这足以弥补我们在智商上的不足 。你必须能对损失泰然处之。合适的卖时点并不是在股价已经下跌之后。如果你这样投资，你可能就注定了不会取得好的长期回报。 从历史中学习，不要试图避免损失。 损失是不可避免的。相反，应该专注于确保没有把自己会被迫卖出的境地。如果你知道股票曾经跌幅超过50%，这种情况无疑将来还会发生，请确保你未来能面对和承担这样的情况。如何做？这里有个例子。假设你的投资组合价值10万美元并且你知道你不能忍受超过3万美元的损失。假设如果股票价值减少一半而债券将保留价值（这绝对是一个假设，没有任何保证），那就不要配置超过60%的股票资产。那样即使这60%的资产下跌一半，你也应该还好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}