+Follow
星星太阳
No personal profile
197
Follow
5
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
星星太阳
2022-09-28
[微笑]
Opinion | How far will the pound's decline go?
星星太阳
2022-07-01
👌
Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581990775485980","uuid":"3581990775485980","gmtCreate":1618897444588,"gmtModify":1618897444588,"name":"星星太阳","pinyin":"xxtyxingxingtaiyang","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":197,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.30","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.30","exceedPercentage":"60.18%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":37,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9918896013,"gmtCreate":1664350273332,"gmtModify":1676537438493,"author":{"id":"3581990775485980","authorId":"3581990775485980","name":"星星太阳","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990775485980","idStr":"3581990775485980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918896013","repostId":"2270189902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270189902","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664326126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270189902?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-28 08:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | How far will the pound's decline go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270189902","media":"市场资讯","summary":" 北京时间9月23日晚，英国新任政府推出了历史上1972年以来最大幅度的减税组合政策，受此事件催化，英国资产全面遭到抛售，而9月26日亚洲早盘，受到上周末财长坚持减税政策评论影响[1]，英镑更是一度闪跌至1.0350历史新低。我们认为，面临如此局面，除非BOE出面重新阻止市场对英镑悲观情绪的进一步升级，否则英镑的下跌趋势难以逆转。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>On the evening of September 23, Beijing time, the new British government launched the largest tax cut package in history since 1972. Catalyzed by this event, British assets were sold off across the board (the British Treasury Bond, stocks and the pound all fell sharply). On the morning of September 26, affected by the finance minister's comments on insisting on the tax cut policy last weekend[1], the pound once fell to a new historical low of 1.0350 (which made the pound fall by about 8% on the 23rd and 26th, the highest level since Brexit in 2016). We believe that, given this situation, unless the BOE intervenes to prevent further escalation of market pessimism about the pound, the pound's downward trend will be difficult to reverse.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>We believe there are two key reasons behind the pound's sharp decline.</b></p><p><b>Last Thursday's BOE meeting chose a dovish rate hike.</b>When the new British Prime Minister took office in early September, the market still expected the BOE to rate hike 75 basis points at its September interest rate meeting. Even the day before the meeting, the OIS market still expected rate hike to reach 70 basis points. However, the nine members of the MPC voted 3-5-1 to support rate hike 50 basis points (3 of whom supported rate hike 75 and 1 supported rate hike 25). In addition, the Bank of England (BOE) lowered its third-quarter economic growth forecast (at its last meeting in August, the BOE expected 0.4% growth, while at this meeting, it expected economic growth to decline by 0.1%), indicating a stronger expectation of the economy falling into recession. Finally, at its meeting last week, the BOE decided to begin actively selling UK Treasury Bond on its balance sheet at a rate of £10 billion per quarter (which would reduce its balance sheet by £80 billion over the next year). The market interpreted the rate hike as dovish, and its decision regarding QT foreshadowed a sharp decline in UK bonds the following day after the UK government launched a large-scale tax cut plan.</p><p><b>The new government’s 2022 Economic Growth Plan[2] is fundamentally at odds with the BOE’s anti-inflation target (the most likely “side effect” of successfully suppressing inflation is to suppress economic growth), and the plan to cut taxes significantly has made the market begin to doubt the sustainability of its debt.</b>THE GROWTH PLAN 2022, launched last Friday, September 23, sets a 2.5% GDP GROWTH target[3] (THE last time THE UK economy reached this level was before THE 2008 financial crisis). To achieve this target, THE scale of THE series of tax cuts announced by THE new Chancellor of THE Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng (abolishing THE top income tax rate of 45% and reducing THE basic tax rate from 20% to 19%, freezing corporation tax, removing THE cap on bankers' bonuses, and allocating billions of dollars to subsidize energy bills over THE next two years) is expected to cost £161 billion over THE next five years.</p><p>While the market had anticipated Truss's long-standing policy of relying on significant additional government bond issuance and tax cuts for fiscal stimulus when he took office in early September (see \"The Exchange Rate Impact of the New UK Prime Minister's Appointment\"), the sheer scale of the tax cuts announced on Friday is the largest since Ted Health became prime minister in 1972. Investors still vividly remember that the budget at the time caused inflation to spiral out of control, which in turn triggered Britain's subsequent recession. It took a full 10 years for the budget to finally end with Britain seeking external assistance from the IMF in 1976. Moreover, even before this tax cut plan was introduced, the UK was already facing a typical \"double deficit\" problem that only developing countries face: the \"fiscal + trade\" deficit reached 250 billion pounds, and the latter alone accounted for 8.3% of GDP in the first quarter of this year, the highest level since 1997, while in 2021 this proportion had reached 102% (Figure 2).</p><p>Such a large tax cut plan means that the UK will have to issue large amounts of bonds to maintain its government operations (the UK needs to issue an additional £62 billion in Treasury Bond, Figure 1). This has also raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of the UK government's debt, especially considering that it is currently facing severe inflationary pressures and the BOE is in a rate hike cycle, which has further intensified the UK government's debt repayment pressure. More importantly, the Bank of England's significant tightening of monetary policy in order to achieve its goal of controlling inflation is likely to bring downside risks to the economy, which is fundamentally at odds with the economic growth plan launched by the new government. Against this backdrop, asset prices showed the trend we have seen: the UK Treasury Bond fell sharply as the government planned to expand bond issuance to support the fiscal system (Treasury Bond yields surged), while the pound sterling was not supported by rising Treasury Bond yields. Instead, it was pressured to fall sharply due to market concerns that the BOE might theoretically downplay its inflation target in line with fiscal expansion (such as slowing rate hike).</p><p><b>Chart 1: UK Treasury Bond Issuance Scale</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c211683077ca1ead39a4abe4d0d301e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source of information : UK Debt Management Office,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 2: UK Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3449fef56f72a2cec7a4112402e1b576\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Market Outlook</b></p><p>The possibility of potential intervention by the Bank of England: We believe that, given the current \"crisis of confidence\" among investors in the pound, only the Bank of England's intervention can slow the pound's downward trend. The options currently before the BOE are as follows:</p><p><ol><li>Six BOE officials will deliver speeches this week (including the three voting members who voted for a 50 basis point rate hike at last week's BOE meeting, including Governor Bailey). If BOE voting members indicate that they will opt for a significant rate hike or reverse their shrinking balance sheet decision made at last week's meeting, taking into account the latest fiscal policy changes, the downward pressure on the UK bond market and the pound sterling will decrease.</p><p></li><li>A more effective approach than the first option might be for the BOE to hold an emergency meeting and announce a significant rate hike of at least 100 basis points. This would both deter speculative bears in the pound and allay market concerns about so-called \"fiscal dominance\" (the BOE slowing rate hike in conjunction with fiscal expansion). Given that the money market currently expects the BOE to rate hike by 200 basis points before November, the market has clearly begun to anticipate this, and the probability of the BOE intervening in this situation has increased significantly.</p><p></li><li>In theory, the BOE could choose to intervene in foreign exchange by directly selling dollars, just like the BOJ. However, given its relatively small foreign exchange reserves (after all, the UK only has around £210 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and the failure of the BOE's foreign exchange intervention in 1992[4] may not make it act rashly), the probability of this choice may remain only theoretical until the pound continues to fall sharply in the near future and even begins to challenge parity.</p><p></li></ol><b>The official statement from the Bank of England (BOE) failed to stabilize confidence.</b></p><p>During trading on September 26, market expectations for BOE intervention grew stronger, and the British pound once rebounded from its Asian low of 1.0350 to around 1.0900. However, the market's expectations were only met with an official statement from the BOE[5]: \"The MPC Committee will make a comprehensive consideration and make a corresponding decision at the next planned meeting (i.e., the interest rate meeting in November).\" We believe that such a statement should not satisfy the short sellers of the pound, and the pound still faces the risk of decline in the future. In the medium to long term, the Truss government's fiscal stimulus plan has deepened concerns about the fiscal health of the UK government. Given the macroeconomic combination of high inflation and high current account deficit, the UK government's high fiscal deficit could plunge the UK into an a vicious circle of \"high inflation -> currency devaluation -> high interest rates -> economic recession\". Before the BOE intervenes, we believe the relevant uncertainty may continue, and the pound may still face significant pressure.</p><p>Extreme bearish sentiment in the derivatives market may indicate a short-term rebound.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBPUSD.FOREX\">GBP/USD</a>The implied volatility curve is clearly inverted (Figure 3), indicating a significant increase in implied volatility over the next three weeks, while the bearish sentiment conveyed by the risk reversal has reached its highest level since 2008 (Figure 4). We cannot rule out the possibility of a short squeeze in the short term (especially if the BOE intervenes in the market), but we expect the pound to continue to face significant volatility in the medium to long term until market sentiment improves significantly (on September 26, the implied volatility of the one-month pound/dollar exchange rate closed above 20% for the first time since 2008). According to Bloomberg's options pricing model, there is a 60% probability that the pound/dollar pair will reach parity this year (compared to only 34% last Thursday). Looking at the weekly chart, the GBP/USD pair has now fallen to its most severe oversold level since 2015, increasing the possibility of a short-term rebound. The lower bound of the Bringer Channel on the weekly chart and the decline since 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>The intersection near 1.0940 provides the first resistance above in the near term. Monday's low of 1.0350 provides the nearest support below (Figure 5).</p><p><b>Chart 3: Inverted GBP/USD Implied Volatility Curve</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26450cddce47e5c47fcc4406ae53f72d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 4: GBP/USD Risk Reversal Options: Bearish Sentiment Reaches Most Crowded Level Since 2008</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27392cbd7f6385256c9a1937759c05c3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 5: GBP/USD is currently in severely oversold territory, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409893be5639915f0008c947b71c3c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | How far will the pound's decline go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | How far will the pound's decline go?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-28 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>On the evening of September 23, Beijing time, the new British government launched the largest tax cut package in history since 1972. Catalyzed by this event, British assets were sold off across the board (the British Treasury Bond, stocks and the pound all fell sharply). On the morning of September 26, affected by the finance minister's comments on insisting on the tax cut policy last weekend[1], the pound once fell to a new historical low of 1.0350 (which made the pound fall by about 8% on the 23rd and 26th, the highest level since Brexit in 2016). We believe that, given this situation, unless the BOE intervenes to prevent further escalation of market pessimism about the pound, the pound's downward trend will be difficult to reverse.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>We believe there are two key reasons behind the pound's sharp decline.</b></p><p><b>Last Thursday's BOE meeting chose a dovish rate hike.</b>When the new British Prime Minister took office in early September, the market still expected the BOE to rate hike 75 basis points at its September interest rate meeting. Even the day before the meeting, the OIS market still expected rate hike to reach 70 basis points. However, the nine members of the MPC voted 3-5-1 to support rate hike 50 basis points (3 of whom supported rate hike 75 and 1 supported rate hike 25). In addition, the Bank of England (BOE) lowered its third-quarter economic growth forecast (at its last meeting in August, the BOE expected 0.4% growth, while at this meeting, it expected economic growth to decline by 0.1%), indicating a stronger expectation of the economy falling into recession. Finally, at its meeting last week, the BOE decided to begin actively selling UK Treasury Bond on its balance sheet at a rate of £10 billion per quarter (which would reduce its balance sheet by £80 billion over the next year). The market interpreted the rate hike as dovish, and its decision regarding QT foreshadowed a sharp decline in UK bonds the following day after the UK government launched a large-scale tax cut plan.</p><p><b>The new government’s 2022 Economic Growth Plan[2] is fundamentally at odds with the BOE’s anti-inflation target (the most likely “side effect” of successfully suppressing inflation is to suppress economic growth), and the plan to cut taxes significantly has made the market begin to doubt the sustainability of its debt.</b>THE GROWTH PLAN 2022, launched last Friday, September 23, sets a 2.5% GDP GROWTH target[3] (THE last time THE UK economy reached this level was before THE 2008 financial crisis). To achieve this target, THE scale of THE series of tax cuts announced by THE new Chancellor of THE Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng (abolishing THE top income tax rate of 45% and reducing THE basic tax rate from 20% to 19%, freezing corporation tax, removing THE cap on bankers' bonuses, and allocating billions of dollars to subsidize energy bills over THE next two years) is expected to cost £161 billion over THE next five years.</p><p>While the market had anticipated Truss's long-standing policy of relying on significant additional government bond issuance and tax cuts for fiscal stimulus when he took office in early September (see \"The Exchange Rate Impact of the New UK Prime Minister's Appointment\"), the sheer scale of the tax cuts announced on Friday is the largest since Ted Health became prime minister in 1972. Investors still vividly remember that the budget at the time caused inflation to spiral out of control, which in turn triggered Britain's subsequent recession. It took a full 10 years for the budget to finally end with Britain seeking external assistance from the IMF in 1976. Moreover, even before this tax cut plan was introduced, the UK was already facing a typical \"double deficit\" problem that only developing countries face: the \"fiscal + trade\" deficit reached 250 billion pounds, and the latter alone accounted for 8.3% of GDP in the first quarter of this year, the highest level since 1997, while in 2021 this proportion had reached 102% (Figure 2).</p><p>Such a large tax cut plan means that the UK will have to issue large amounts of bonds to maintain its government operations (the UK needs to issue an additional £62 billion in Treasury Bond, Figure 1). This has also raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of the UK government's debt, especially considering that it is currently facing severe inflationary pressures and the BOE is in a rate hike cycle, which has further intensified the UK government's debt repayment pressure. More importantly, the Bank of England's significant tightening of monetary policy in order to achieve its goal of controlling inflation is likely to bring downside risks to the economy, which is fundamentally at odds with the economic growth plan launched by the new government. Against this backdrop, asset prices showed the trend we have seen: the UK Treasury Bond fell sharply as the government planned to expand bond issuance to support the fiscal system (Treasury Bond yields surged), while the pound sterling was not supported by rising Treasury Bond yields. Instead, it was pressured to fall sharply due to market concerns that the BOE might theoretically downplay its inflation target in line with fiscal expansion (such as slowing rate hike).</p><p><b>Chart 1: UK Treasury Bond Issuance Scale</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c211683077ca1ead39a4abe4d0d301e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source of information : UK Debt Management Office,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 2: UK Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3449fef56f72a2cec7a4112402e1b576\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Market Outlook</b></p><p>The possibility of potential intervention by the Bank of England: We believe that, given the current \"crisis of confidence\" among investors in the pound, only the Bank of England's intervention can slow the pound's downward trend. The options currently before the BOE are as follows:</p><p><ol><li>Six BOE officials will deliver speeches this week (including the three voting members who voted for a 50 basis point rate hike at last week's BOE meeting, including Governor Bailey). If BOE voting members indicate that they will opt for a significant rate hike or reverse their shrinking balance sheet decision made at last week's meeting, taking into account the latest fiscal policy changes, the downward pressure on the UK bond market and the pound sterling will decrease.</p><p></li><li>A more effective approach than the first option might be for the BOE to hold an emergency meeting and announce a significant rate hike of at least 100 basis points. This would both deter speculative bears in the pound and allay market concerns about so-called \"fiscal dominance\" (the BOE slowing rate hike in conjunction with fiscal expansion). Given that the money market currently expects the BOE to rate hike by 200 basis points before November, the market has clearly begun to anticipate this, and the probability of the BOE intervening in this situation has increased significantly.</p><p></li><li>In theory, the BOE could choose to intervene in foreign exchange by directly selling dollars, just like the BOJ. However, given its relatively small foreign exchange reserves (after all, the UK only has around £210 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and the failure of the BOE's foreign exchange intervention in 1992[4] may not make it act rashly), the probability of this choice may remain only theoretical until the pound continues to fall sharply in the near future and even begins to challenge parity.</p><p></li></ol><b>The official statement from the Bank of England (BOE) failed to stabilize confidence.</b></p><p>During trading on September 26, market expectations for BOE intervention grew stronger, and the British pound once rebounded from its Asian low of 1.0350 to around 1.0900. However, the market's expectations were only met with an official statement from the BOE[5]: \"The MPC Committee will make a comprehensive consideration and make a corresponding decision at the next planned meeting (i.e., the interest rate meeting in November).\" We believe that such a statement should not satisfy the short sellers of the pound, and the pound still faces the risk of decline in the future. In the medium to long term, the Truss government's fiscal stimulus plan has deepened concerns about the fiscal health of the UK government. Given the macroeconomic combination of high inflation and high current account deficit, the UK government's high fiscal deficit could plunge the UK into an a vicious circle of \"high inflation -> currency devaluation -> high interest rates -> economic recession\". Before the BOE intervenes, we believe the relevant uncertainty may continue, and the pound may still face significant pressure.</p><p>Extreme bearish sentiment in the derivatives market may indicate a short-term rebound.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBPUSD.FOREX\">GBP/USD</a>The implied volatility curve is clearly inverted (Figure 3), indicating a significant increase in implied volatility over the next three weeks, while the bearish sentiment conveyed by the risk reversal has reached its highest level since 2008 (Figure 4). We cannot rule out the possibility of a short squeeze in the short term (especially if the BOE intervenes in the market), but we expect the pound to continue to face significant volatility in the medium to long term until market sentiment improves significantly (on September 26, the implied volatility of the one-month pound/dollar exchange rate closed above 20% for the first time since 2008). According to Bloomberg's options pricing model, there is a 60% probability that the pound/dollar pair will reach parity this year (compared to only 34% last Thursday). Looking at the weekly chart, the GBP/USD pair has now fallen to its most severe oversold level since 2015, increasing the possibility of a short-term rebound. The lower bound of the Bringer Channel on the weekly chart and the decline since 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>The intersection near 1.0940 provides the first resistance above in the near term. Monday's low of 1.0350 provides the nearest support below (Figure 5).</p><p><b>Chart 3: Inverted GBP/USD Implied Volatility Curve</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26450cddce47e5c47fcc4406ae53f72d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 4: GBP/USD Risk Reversal Options: Bearish Sentiment Reaches Most Crowded Level Since 2008</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27392cbd7f6385256c9a1937759c05c3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 5: GBP/USD is currently in severely oversold territory, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409893be5639915f0008c947b71c3c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/2022-09-27/doc-imqmmtha8940427.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a1170a4e489963fb6ed8b799c9fd645","relate_stocks":{"BOE":"黑岩全球成长基金"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/2022-09-27/doc-imqmmtha8940427.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2270189902","content_text":"摘要北京时间9月23日晚，英国新任政府推出了历史上1972年以来最大幅度的减税组合政策，受此事件催化，英国资产全面遭到抛售（英国国债，股票和英镑全部大幅走低），而9月26日亚洲早盘，受到上周末财长坚持减税政策评论影响[1]，英镑更是一度闪跌至1.0350历史新低（这也使得英镑在23，26号两天累计8%左右的跌幅达到2016年英国脱欧以来的最高水平）。我们认为，面临如此局面，除非BOE出面重新阻止市场对英镑悲观情绪的进一步升级，否则英镑的下跌趋势难以逆转。正文我们认为英镑如此大幅下跌背后有两个关键原因上周四BOE会议选择鸽派加息：9月初英国新首相上任初始，市场依旧预计BOE会在9月议息会上加息75基点，甚至在会议前一天OIS市场依旧预期本次会议加息70基点，然而MPC的9位委员们以3-5-1的投票选择支持加息50基点（其中3人支持加息75而1人支持加息25）；此外，BOE下调了3季度经济增长的预期（8月上次会上BOE预计增长0.4%而本次会上预计经济增长下降0.1%）即对经济陷入衰退的预期更加浓重。最后，BOE上周会议上决定以100亿英镑/季度的速度开始主动出售其资产负债表上的英国国债（这样就使得未来1年其资产负债表缩小800亿英镑）。市场对此次加息解读为鸽派，而其有关QT的决定更是为第二天英国政府推出大规模减税计划之后英国债券的大幅走低埋下了伏笔。新政府推出的《2022经济增长计划》[2] 与BOE的抗通胀目标产生根本分歧（成功压制通胀带来的大概率“副作用”就是抑制经济增长），而大幅减税的计划也使得市场开始怀疑其债务的可持续性：上周五9月23日英国推出的2022增长计划（THE GROWTH PLAN 2022）设定了一个2.5%的GDP增长目标[3] （英国经济上一次达到这个增长水平还是08年金融危机之前的时候）而为了实现这一目标，新任财政大臣Kwasi Kwarteng公布的一系列减税方案的规模（取消45%的最高所得税税率，并将基本税率从20%降至19%，冻结公司税，取消银行家奖金上限，并在未来两年拿出数十亿美元补贴能源账单）预计将在未来五年耗费1610亿英镑。虽然在特拉斯9月初上任初期，市场就对其一直主张的依靠大幅额外政府发债以及削减各项税收来进行财政刺激的政策有所预期（详见《英国新首相上任的汇率影响》）但周五公布的减税计划的巨大规模是自1972年Ted Health担任首相以来最大规模的减税措施。而投资者对当时的预算案导致通胀失控，进而引发英国此后陷入衰退，而之后花费了整整10年时间，才最终以1976年英国求助了IMF外部援助才得以结束依然记忆犹新。更何况，在这一减税计划推出之前，英国就已经面临了一个典型的发展中国家才会面临的“双赤字”难题：即“财政+贸易”赤字达到了2500亿英镑，而单单是后者就已经在今年一季度占比GDP达到1997年以来的最高水平8.3%，而21年这一比例就已经达到102%（图2）。如此大额的减税计划意味着此后英国不得不大规模发债来维持其政府运作（英国需要额外发行620亿英镑国债，图1）而这也使得市场开始对英国政府的债务可持续性产生了担忧，尤其考虑到目前面临严峻的通胀压力，BOE正处于加息周期之中，而这也就使得英国政府的偿债压力进一步加剧。此外更重要的一点是，BOE为了实现其控制通胀的目标而进行大幅收紧货币政策，这样做大概率会带来经济的下行风险，而这就和新政府推出的经济增长计划出现了根本的分歧。在此背景下，资产价格出现了我们看到的走势：英国国债因政府将要扩大发债规模支持财政因而大幅下跌（国债收益率大涨），而英镑并未受到国债收益率上行的支撑，反而因市场担忧BOE理论上可能会配合财政扩张而淡化通胀目标（比如放缓加息）进而承压大幅走低。图表1：英国财政部发债规模 资料来源：UK Debt Management Office、中金公司研究部图表2：英国政府债务占比GDP资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部后市展望英国央行潜在出面干预的可能性：我们认为，面对当下投资者对英镑的“信心危机”，只有BOE出面才可能放缓英镑下跌的趋势。目前摆在BOE面前的选择如下：本周共有 6位BOE官员会发布讲话（包括上周BOE会上投票加息50基点的3位票委，这其中包括行长Bailey），如果BOE票委表态考虑到最新的财政政策变化，会选择大幅加息或者改变其上周会上作出的缩表决定，那么英国债券市场和英镑的下跌压力将会减少。比起第一个选择，更为有效的做法或许是BOE召开紧急会议并且宣布大幅加息至少100个基点，如此一来一方面会对英镑投机空头形成威震，另一方面将会打消市场对所谓的“财政主导”（BOE放缓加息配合财政扩张）的担忧。鉴于目前货币市场已经预计BOE会在11月之前加息200个基点，显然市场已经开始对此有所预期，而这种情况下BOE出面干预的概率明显加大。理论上，BOE可以选择像BOJ一样直接抛售美元进行外汇干预外汇。不过，考虑到其相对较小的外储规模（毕竟英国只有2100亿英镑左右的外汇储备，况且1992年BOE外汇干预的失败[4] 或许不会使其轻举妄动）在英镑近期继续大幅走低甚至开始挑战平价之前，这种选择的概率或只停留在理论层面。英国央行（BOE）的官方声明未能稳住信心 9月26日盘中，市场对BOE出面干预的预期愈发强烈，英镑也一度自当日亚洲时段“闪跌”低点1.0350反弹至1.0900附近，然而市场的期待等到的只是BOE的官方声明[5] ：“MPC委员会会在下一次计划的会议（即11月的议息会议）上做出全面的考量并且做出相应的决定。”我们认为，这样的一个声明应该不会让英镑空头满意，接下来英镑依旧存在下跌风险。中长期看，特拉斯政府的这一财政刺激计划令外界对于英国政府的财政健康的疑虑加深。在高通胀、高经常项目逆差的宏观组合下，英国政府的高财政赤字有可能会让英国陷入“高通胀->货币贬值->高利率->经济衰退”的恶性循环。在BOE出面之前，我们认为相关的不确定性可能会延续，英镑仍然可能会继续面临较大的压力。衍生品市场看空情绪较为极端或许预示短期的反弹 目前英镑/美元隐含波动率曲线出现明显倒挂（图3），未来3个星期之内的隐含波动率明显升高，而风险反转传达出的看空情绪更是达到了2008年以来的最高水平（图4）。短期内我们不能排除出现short squeeze的可能性（尤其如果BOE出面干预市场），但在市场情绪明显好转之前我们预计英镑依旧在中长期面临较大的波动（9月26号当天1个月期的英镑/美元隐含波动率自2008年以来首次收盘在20%之上）。彭博期权定价模型的推算，年内英镑/美元有60%的概率触及平价（而上周四这一概率只有34%）。从周线级别的走势上看，目前英镑/美元已经跌至2015年以来最为严重的超卖水平，短期反弹的可能性有所加大。周线级别上布林格通道下限和2017年以来的下降趋势线的交点1.0940附近提供近期上方的第一个阻力。而本周一的低点1.0350则提供下方最近的支撑（图5）。图表3：英镑/美元隐含波动率曲线倒挂资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部图表4：英镑/美元风险反转期权：看空英镑情绪达到08年以来最为拥挤水平资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部图表5：英镑/美元目前处于严重超卖区域，短期反弹概率有所升高资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BOE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045758878,"gmtCreate":1656661403194,"gmtModify":1676535873289,"author":{"id":"3581990775485980","authorId":"3581990775485980","name":"星星太阳","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990775485980","idStr":"3581990775485980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045758878","repostId":"1176657955","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176657955","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656487457,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176657955?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 15:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176657955","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"请留意具体时间，提前安排好您的投资计划。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (and the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China),<b>The Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on Friday, July 1.</b>。 In addition, due to the US Independence Day holiday,<b>The US stock market will be closed for one day on Monday, July 4.</b>。 Please pay attention to the specific time and plan your investment plan in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85335b584c40ee97169a866b3eb10b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, July 4, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, July 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on July 1st (Friday) and will reopen as usual on July 4th (Monday).</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-</b></p><p>Services will be closed from June 30 (Thursday) to July 1 (Friday), and will resume as usual from July 4 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>Services will not be available on Friday, July 1st, but will resume as usual on Monday, July 4th.</p><p><b>Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p><b>Anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</b></p><p>The anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China falls on July 1st each year. The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China was established on July 1, 1997. From then on, this day became the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.</p><p>2022 marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f228e2be416213ddd5f57b144bf15712\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>American Independence Day</b></p><p>Independence Day (also known as the Fourth of July or July Fourth) is one of the major statutory holidays in the United States. It falls on July 4th each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-29 15:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (and the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China),<b>The Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on Friday, July 1.</b>。 In addition, due to the US Independence Day holiday,<b>The US stock market will be closed for one day on Monday, July 4.</b>。 Please pay attention to the specific time and plan your investment plan in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85335b584c40ee97169a866b3eb10b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, July 4, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, July 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on July 1st (Friday) and will reopen as usual on July 4th (Monday).</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-</b></p><p>Services will be closed from June 30 (Thursday) to July 1 (Friday), and will resume as usual from July 4 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>Services will not be available on Friday, July 1st, but will resume as usual on Monday, July 4th.</p><p><b>Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p><b>Anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</b></p><p>The anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China falls on July 1st each year. The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China was established on July 1, 1997. From then on, this day became the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.</p><p>2022 marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f228e2be416213ddd5f57b144bf15712\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>American Independence Day</b></p><p>Independence Day (also known as the Fourth of July or July Fourth) is one of the major statutory holidays in the United States. It falls on July 4th each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3877d7f890a3e97cbb441a2ccfdf29da","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176657955","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：因香港特别行政区成立纪念日（暨香港回归纪念日），港股市场于7月1日（周五）休市一天。此外，因美国独立日假期，美股市场将于7月4日（周一）休市一天。请留意具体时间，提前安排好您的投资计划。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股7月4日（周一）休市，7月5日（周二）起照常开市。港股7月1日（周五）休市，7月4日（周一）起照常开市。A股照常交易。沪股通、深股通6月30日（周四）至7月1日（周五）不提供服务，7月4日（星期一）起照常开通。港股通7月1日（周五）不提供服务，7月4日（周一）起照常开通。新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍香港特别行政区成立纪念日暨香港回归纪念日，为每年的7月1日。1997年7月1日，中华人民共和国香港特别行政区政府成立。从此，这一天成为香港回归纪念日。2022年是香港回归祖国25周年。美国独立日独立日（Independence Day，又称Fourth of July或July Fourth）是美国的主要法定节日之一，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9045758878,"gmtCreate":1656661403194,"gmtModify":1676535873289,"author":{"id":"3581990775485980","authorId":"3581990775485980","name":"星星太阳","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990775485980","idStr":"3581990775485980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045758878","repostId":"1176657955","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176657955","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656487457,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176657955?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 15:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176657955","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"请留意具体时间，提前安排好您的投资计划。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (and the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China),<b>The Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on Friday, July 1.</b>。 In addition, due to the US Independence Day holiday,<b>The US stock market will be closed for one day on Monday, July 4.</b>。 Please pay attention to the specific time and plan your investment plan in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85335b584c40ee97169a866b3eb10b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, July 4, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, July 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on July 1st (Friday) and will reopen as usual on July 4th (Monday).</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-</b></p><p>Services will be closed from June 30 (Thursday) to July 1 (Friday), and will resume as usual from July 4 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>Services will not be available on Friday, July 1st, but will resume as usual on Monday, July 4th.</p><p><b>Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p><b>Anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</b></p><p>The anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China falls on July 1st each year. The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China was established on July 1, 1997. From then on, this day became the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.</p><p>2022 marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f228e2be416213ddd5f57b144bf15712\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>American Independence Day</b></p><p>Independence Day (also known as the Fourth of July or July Fourth) is one of the major statutory holidays in the United States. It falls on July 4th each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-29 15:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p>On the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (and the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China),<b>The Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on Friday, July 1.</b>。 In addition, due to the US Independence Day holiday,<b>The US stock market will be closed for one day on Monday, July 4.</b>。 Please pay attention to the specific time and plan your investment plan in advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85335b584c40ee97169a866b3eb10b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, July 4, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, July 5.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on July 1st (Friday) and will reopen as usual on July 4th (Monday).</p><p><b>A-shares</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-</b></p><p>Services will be closed from June 30 (Thursday) to July 1 (Friday), and will resume as usual from July 4 (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect</b></p><p>Services will not be available on Friday, July 1st, but will resume as usual on Monday, July 4th.</p><p><b>Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p><b>Anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region</b></p><p>The anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China falls on July 1st each year. The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China was established on July 1, 1997. From then on, this day became the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.</p><p>2022 marks the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f228e2be416213ddd5f57b144bf15712\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>American Independence Day</b></p><p>Independence Day (also known as the Fourth of July or July Fourth) is one of the major statutory holidays in the United States. It falls on July 4th each year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3877d7f890a3e97cbb441a2ccfdf29da","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176657955","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：因香港特别行政区成立纪念日（暨香港回归纪念日），港股市场于7月1日（周五）休市一天。此外，因美国独立日假期，美股市场将于7月4日（周一）休市一天。请留意具体时间，提前安排好您的投资计划。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股7月4日（周一）休市，7月5日（周二）起照常开市。港股7月1日（周五）休市，7月4日（周一）起照常开市。A股照常交易。沪股通、深股通6月30日（周四）至7月1日（周五）不提供服务，7月4日（星期一）起照常开通。港股通7月1日（周五）不提供服务，7月4日（周一）起照常开通。新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍香港特别行政区成立纪念日暨香港回归纪念日，为每年的7月1日。1997年7月1日，中华人民共和国香港特别行政区政府成立。从此，这一天成为香港回归纪念日。2022年是香港回归祖国25周年。美国独立日独立日（Independence Day，又称Fourth of July或July Fourth）是美国的主要法定节日之一，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918896013,"gmtCreate":1664350273332,"gmtModify":1676537438493,"author":{"id":"3581990775485980","authorId":"3581990775485980","name":"星星太阳","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990775485980","idStr":"3581990775485980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918896013","repostId":"2270189902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270189902","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664326126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270189902?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-28 08:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | How far will the pound's decline go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270189902","media":"市场资讯","summary":" 北京时间9月23日晚，英国新任政府推出了历史上1972年以来最大幅度的减税组合政策，受此事件催化，英国资产全面遭到抛售，而9月26日亚洲早盘，受到上周末财长坚持减税政策评论影响[1]，英镑更是一度闪跌至1.0350历史新低。我们认为，面临如此局面，除非BOE出面重新阻止市场对英镑悲观情绪的进一步升级，否则英镑的下跌趋势难以逆转。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>On the evening of September 23, Beijing time, the new British government launched the largest tax cut package in history since 1972. Catalyzed by this event, British assets were sold off across the board (the British Treasury Bond, stocks and the pound all fell sharply). On the morning of September 26, affected by the finance minister's comments on insisting on the tax cut policy last weekend[1], the pound once fell to a new historical low of 1.0350 (which made the pound fall by about 8% on the 23rd and 26th, the highest level since Brexit in 2016). We believe that, given this situation, unless the BOE intervenes to prevent further escalation of market pessimism about the pound, the pound's downward trend will be difficult to reverse.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>We believe there are two key reasons behind the pound's sharp decline.</b></p><p><b>Last Thursday's BOE meeting chose a dovish rate hike.</b>When the new British Prime Minister took office in early September, the market still expected the BOE to rate hike 75 basis points at its September interest rate meeting. Even the day before the meeting, the OIS market still expected rate hike to reach 70 basis points. However, the nine members of the MPC voted 3-5-1 to support rate hike 50 basis points (3 of whom supported rate hike 75 and 1 supported rate hike 25). In addition, the Bank of England (BOE) lowered its third-quarter economic growth forecast (at its last meeting in August, the BOE expected 0.4% growth, while at this meeting, it expected economic growth to decline by 0.1%), indicating a stronger expectation of the economy falling into recession. Finally, at its meeting last week, the BOE decided to begin actively selling UK Treasury Bond on its balance sheet at a rate of £10 billion per quarter (which would reduce its balance sheet by £80 billion over the next year). The market interpreted the rate hike as dovish, and its decision regarding QT foreshadowed a sharp decline in UK bonds the following day after the UK government launched a large-scale tax cut plan.</p><p><b>The new government’s 2022 Economic Growth Plan[2] is fundamentally at odds with the BOE’s anti-inflation target (the most likely “side effect” of successfully suppressing inflation is to suppress economic growth), and the plan to cut taxes significantly has made the market begin to doubt the sustainability of its debt.</b>THE GROWTH PLAN 2022, launched last Friday, September 23, sets a 2.5% GDP GROWTH target[3] (THE last time THE UK economy reached this level was before THE 2008 financial crisis). To achieve this target, THE scale of THE series of tax cuts announced by THE new Chancellor of THE Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng (abolishing THE top income tax rate of 45% and reducing THE basic tax rate from 20% to 19%, freezing corporation tax, removing THE cap on bankers' bonuses, and allocating billions of dollars to subsidize energy bills over THE next two years) is expected to cost £161 billion over THE next five years.</p><p>While the market had anticipated Truss's long-standing policy of relying on significant additional government bond issuance and tax cuts for fiscal stimulus when he took office in early September (see \"The Exchange Rate Impact of the New UK Prime Minister's Appointment\"), the sheer scale of the tax cuts announced on Friday is the largest since Ted Health became prime minister in 1972. Investors still vividly remember that the budget at the time caused inflation to spiral out of control, which in turn triggered Britain's subsequent recession. It took a full 10 years for the budget to finally end with Britain seeking external assistance from the IMF in 1976. Moreover, even before this tax cut plan was introduced, the UK was already facing a typical \"double deficit\" problem that only developing countries face: the \"fiscal + trade\" deficit reached 250 billion pounds, and the latter alone accounted for 8.3% of GDP in the first quarter of this year, the highest level since 1997, while in 2021 this proportion had reached 102% (Figure 2).</p><p>Such a large tax cut plan means that the UK will have to issue large amounts of bonds to maintain its government operations (the UK needs to issue an additional £62 billion in Treasury Bond, Figure 1). This has also raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of the UK government's debt, especially considering that it is currently facing severe inflationary pressures and the BOE is in a rate hike cycle, which has further intensified the UK government's debt repayment pressure. More importantly, the Bank of England's significant tightening of monetary policy in order to achieve its goal of controlling inflation is likely to bring downside risks to the economy, which is fundamentally at odds with the economic growth plan launched by the new government. Against this backdrop, asset prices showed the trend we have seen: the UK Treasury Bond fell sharply as the government planned to expand bond issuance to support the fiscal system (Treasury Bond yields surged), while the pound sterling was not supported by rising Treasury Bond yields. Instead, it was pressured to fall sharply due to market concerns that the BOE might theoretically downplay its inflation target in line with fiscal expansion (such as slowing rate hike).</p><p><b>Chart 1: UK Treasury Bond Issuance Scale</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c211683077ca1ead39a4abe4d0d301e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source of information : UK Debt Management Office,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 2: UK Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3449fef56f72a2cec7a4112402e1b576\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Market Outlook</b></p><p>The possibility of potential intervention by the Bank of England: We believe that, given the current \"crisis of confidence\" among investors in the pound, only the Bank of England's intervention can slow the pound's downward trend. The options currently before the BOE are as follows:</p><p><ol><li>Six BOE officials will deliver speeches this week (including the three voting members who voted for a 50 basis point rate hike at last week's BOE meeting, including Governor Bailey). If BOE voting members indicate that they will opt for a significant rate hike or reverse their shrinking balance sheet decision made at last week's meeting, taking into account the latest fiscal policy changes, the downward pressure on the UK bond market and the pound sterling will decrease.</p><p></li><li>A more effective approach than the first option might be for the BOE to hold an emergency meeting and announce a significant rate hike of at least 100 basis points. This would both deter speculative bears in the pound and allay market concerns about so-called \"fiscal dominance\" (the BOE slowing rate hike in conjunction with fiscal expansion). Given that the money market currently expects the BOE to rate hike by 200 basis points before November, the market has clearly begun to anticipate this, and the probability of the BOE intervening in this situation has increased significantly.</p><p></li><li>In theory, the BOE could choose to intervene in foreign exchange by directly selling dollars, just like the BOJ. However, given its relatively small foreign exchange reserves (after all, the UK only has around £210 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and the failure of the BOE's foreign exchange intervention in 1992[4] may not make it act rashly), the probability of this choice may remain only theoretical until the pound continues to fall sharply in the near future and even begins to challenge parity.</p><p></li></ol><b>The official statement from the Bank of England (BOE) failed to stabilize confidence.</b></p><p>During trading on September 26, market expectations for BOE intervention grew stronger, and the British pound once rebounded from its Asian low of 1.0350 to around 1.0900. However, the market's expectations were only met with an official statement from the BOE[5]: \"The MPC Committee will make a comprehensive consideration and make a corresponding decision at the next planned meeting (i.e., the interest rate meeting in November).\" We believe that such a statement should not satisfy the short sellers of the pound, and the pound still faces the risk of decline in the future. In the medium to long term, the Truss government's fiscal stimulus plan has deepened concerns about the fiscal health of the UK government. Given the macroeconomic combination of high inflation and high current account deficit, the UK government's high fiscal deficit could plunge the UK into an a vicious circle of \"high inflation -> currency devaluation -> high interest rates -> economic recession\". Before the BOE intervenes, we believe the relevant uncertainty may continue, and the pound may still face significant pressure.</p><p>Extreme bearish sentiment in the derivatives market may indicate a short-term rebound.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBPUSD.FOREX\">GBP/USD</a>The implied volatility curve is clearly inverted (Figure 3), indicating a significant increase in implied volatility over the next three weeks, while the bearish sentiment conveyed by the risk reversal has reached its highest level since 2008 (Figure 4). We cannot rule out the possibility of a short squeeze in the short term (especially if the BOE intervenes in the market), but we expect the pound to continue to face significant volatility in the medium to long term until market sentiment improves significantly (on September 26, the implied volatility of the one-month pound/dollar exchange rate closed above 20% for the first time since 2008). According to Bloomberg's options pricing model, there is a 60% probability that the pound/dollar pair will reach parity this year (compared to only 34% last Thursday). Looking at the weekly chart, the GBP/USD pair has now fallen to its most severe oversold level since 2015, increasing the possibility of a short-term rebound. The lower bound of the Bringer Channel on the weekly chart and the decline since 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>The intersection near 1.0940 provides the first resistance above in the near term. Monday's low of 1.0350 provides the nearest support below (Figure 5).</p><p><b>Chart 3: Inverted GBP/USD Implied Volatility Curve</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26450cddce47e5c47fcc4406ae53f72d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 4: GBP/USD Risk Reversal Options: Bearish Sentiment Reaches Most Crowded Level Since 2008</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27392cbd7f6385256c9a1937759c05c3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 5: GBP/USD is currently in severely oversold territory, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409893be5639915f0008c947b71c3c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | How far will the pound's decline go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | How far will the pound's decline go?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-28 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract</b></p><p>On the evening of September 23, Beijing time, the new British government launched the largest tax cut package in history since 1972. Catalyzed by this event, British assets were sold off across the board (the British Treasury Bond, stocks and the pound all fell sharply). On the morning of September 26, affected by the finance minister's comments on insisting on the tax cut policy last weekend[1], the pound once fell to a new historical low of 1.0350 (which made the pound fall by about 8% on the 23rd and 26th, the highest level since Brexit in 2016). We believe that, given this situation, unless the BOE intervenes to prevent further escalation of market pessimism about the pound, the pound's downward trend will be difficult to reverse.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>We believe there are two key reasons behind the pound's sharp decline.</b></p><p><b>Last Thursday's BOE meeting chose a dovish rate hike.</b>When the new British Prime Minister took office in early September, the market still expected the BOE to rate hike 75 basis points at its September interest rate meeting. Even the day before the meeting, the OIS market still expected rate hike to reach 70 basis points. However, the nine members of the MPC voted 3-5-1 to support rate hike 50 basis points (3 of whom supported rate hike 75 and 1 supported rate hike 25). In addition, the Bank of England (BOE) lowered its third-quarter economic growth forecast (at its last meeting in August, the BOE expected 0.4% growth, while at this meeting, it expected economic growth to decline by 0.1%), indicating a stronger expectation of the economy falling into recession. Finally, at its meeting last week, the BOE decided to begin actively selling UK Treasury Bond on its balance sheet at a rate of £10 billion per quarter (which would reduce its balance sheet by £80 billion over the next year). The market interpreted the rate hike as dovish, and its decision regarding QT foreshadowed a sharp decline in UK bonds the following day after the UK government launched a large-scale tax cut plan.</p><p><b>The new government’s 2022 Economic Growth Plan[2] is fundamentally at odds with the BOE’s anti-inflation target (the most likely “side effect” of successfully suppressing inflation is to suppress economic growth), and the plan to cut taxes significantly has made the market begin to doubt the sustainability of its debt.</b>THE GROWTH PLAN 2022, launched last Friday, September 23, sets a 2.5% GDP GROWTH target[3] (THE last time THE UK economy reached this level was before THE 2008 financial crisis). To achieve this target, THE scale of THE series of tax cuts announced by THE new Chancellor of THE Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng (abolishing THE top income tax rate of 45% and reducing THE basic tax rate from 20% to 19%, freezing corporation tax, removing THE cap on bankers' bonuses, and allocating billions of dollars to subsidize energy bills over THE next two years) is expected to cost £161 billion over THE next five years.</p><p>While the market had anticipated Truss's long-standing policy of relying on significant additional government bond issuance and tax cuts for fiscal stimulus when he took office in early September (see \"The Exchange Rate Impact of the New UK Prime Minister's Appointment\"), the sheer scale of the tax cuts announced on Friday is the largest since Ted Health became prime minister in 1972. Investors still vividly remember that the budget at the time caused inflation to spiral out of control, which in turn triggered Britain's subsequent recession. It took a full 10 years for the budget to finally end with Britain seeking external assistance from the IMF in 1976. Moreover, even before this tax cut plan was introduced, the UK was already facing a typical \"double deficit\" problem that only developing countries face: the \"fiscal + trade\" deficit reached 250 billion pounds, and the latter alone accounted for 8.3% of GDP in the first quarter of this year, the highest level since 1997, while in 2021 this proportion had reached 102% (Figure 2).</p><p>Such a large tax cut plan means that the UK will have to issue large amounts of bonds to maintain its government operations (the UK needs to issue an additional £62 billion in Treasury Bond, Figure 1). This has also raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of the UK government's debt, especially considering that it is currently facing severe inflationary pressures and the BOE is in a rate hike cycle, which has further intensified the UK government's debt repayment pressure. More importantly, the Bank of England's significant tightening of monetary policy in order to achieve its goal of controlling inflation is likely to bring downside risks to the economy, which is fundamentally at odds with the economic growth plan launched by the new government. Against this backdrop, asset prices showed the trend we have seen: the UK Treasury Bond fell sharply as the government planned to expand bond issuance to support the fiscal system (Treasury Bond yields surged), while the pound sterling was not supported by rising Treasury Bond yields. Instead, it was pressured to fall sharply due to market concerns that the BOE might theoretically downplay its inflation target in line with fiscal expansion (such as slowing rate hike).</p><p><b>Chart 1: UK Treasury Bond Issuance Scale</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c211683077ca1ead39a4abe4d0d301e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source of information : UK Debt Management Office,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 2: UK Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3449fef56f72a2cec7a4112402e1b576\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Market Outlook</b></p><p>The possibility of potential intervention by the Bank of England: We believe that, given the current \"crisis of confidence\" among investors in the pound, only the Bank of England's intervention can slow the pound's downward trend. The options currently before the BOE are as follows:</p><p><ol><li>Six BOE officials will deliver speeches this week (including the three voting members who voted for a 50 basis point rate hike at last week's BOE meeting, including Governor Bailey). If BOE voting members indicate that they will opt for a significant rate hike or reverse their shrinking balance sheet decision made at last week's meeting, taking into account the latest fiscal policy changes, the downward pressure on the UK bond market and the pound sterling will decrease.</p><p></li><li>A more effective approach than the first option might be for the BOE to hold an emergency meeting and announce a significant rate hike of at least 100 basis points. This would both deter speculative bears in the pound and allay market concerns about so-called \"fiscal dominance\" (the BOE slowing rate hike in conjunction with fiscal expansion). Given that the money market currently expects the BOE to rate hike by 200 basis points before November, the market has clearly begun to anticipate this, and the probability of the BOE intervening in this situation has increased significantly.</p><p></li><li>In theory, the BOE could choose to intervene in foreign exchange by directly selling dollars, just like the BOJ. However, given its relatively small foreign exchange reserves (after all, the UK only has around £210 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and the failure of the BOE's foreign exchange intervention in 1992[4] may not make it act rashly), the probability of this choice may remain only theoretical until the pound continues to fall sharply in the near future and even begins to challenge parity.</p><p></li></ol><b>The official statement from the Bank of England (BOE) failed to stabilize confidence.</b></p><p>During trading on September 26, market expectations for BOE intervention grew stronger, and the British pound once rebounded from its Asian low of 1.0350 to around 1.0900. However, the market's expectations were only met with an official statement from the BOE[5]: \"The MPC Committee will make a comprehensive consideration and make a corresponding decision at the next planned meeting (i.e., the interest rate meeting in November).\" We believe that such a statement should not satisfy the short sellers of the pound, and the pound still faces the risk of decline in the future. In the medium to long term, the Truss government's fiscal stimulus plan has deepened concerns about the fiscal health of the UK government. Given the macroeconomic combination of high inflation and high current account deficit, the UK government's high fiscal deficit could plunge the UK into an a vicious circle of \"high inflation -> currency devaluation -> high interest rates -> economic recession\". Before the BOE intervenes, we believe the relevant uncertainty may continue, and the pound may still face significant pressure.</p><p>Extreme bearish sentiment in the derivatives market may indicate a short-term rebound.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBPUSD.FOREX\">GBP/USD</a>The implied volatility curve is clearly inverted (Figure 3), indicating a significant increase in implied volatility over the next three weeks, while the bearish sentiment conveyed by the risk reversal has reached its highest level since 2008 (Figure 4). We cannot rule out the possibility of a short squeeze in the short term (especially if the BOE intervenes in the market), but we expect the pound to continue to face significant volatility in the medium to long term until market sentiment improves significantly (on September 26, the implied volatility of the one-month pound/dollar exchange rate closed above 20% for the first time since 2008). According to Bloomberg's options pricing model, there is a 60% probability that the pound/dollar pair will reach parity this year (compared to only 34% last Thursday). Looking at the weekly chart, the GBP/USD pair has now fallen to its most severe oversold level since 2015, increasing the possibility of a short-term rebound. The lower bound of the Bringer Channel on the weekly chart and the decline since 2017.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">trend line</a>The intersection near 1.0940 provides the first resistance above in the near term. Monday's low of 1.0350 provides the nearest support below (Figure 5).</p><p><b>Chart 3: Inverted GBP/USD Implied Volatility Curve</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26450cddce47e5c47fcc4406ae53f72d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 4: GBP/USD Risk Reversal Options: Bearish Sentiment Reaches Most Crowded Level Since 2008</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27392cbd7f6385256c9a1937759c05c3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart 5: GBP/USD is currently in severely oversold territory, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f409893be5639915f0008c947b71c3c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/2022-09-27/doc-imqmmtha8940427.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a1170a4e489963fb6ed8b799c9fd645","relate_stocks":{"BOE":"黑岩全球成长基金"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/2022-09-27/doc-imqmmtha8940427.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2270189902","content_text":"摘要北京时间9月23日晚，英国新任政府推出了历史上1972年以来最大幅度的减税组合政策，受此事件催化，英国资产全面遭到抛售（英国国债，股票和英镑全部大幅走低），而9月26日亚洲早盘，受到上周末财长坚持减税政策评论影响[1]，英镑更是一度闪跌至1.0350历史新低（这也使得英镑在23，26号两天累计8%左右的跌幅达到2016年英国脱欧以来的最高水平）。我们认为，面临如此局面，除非BOE出面重新阻止市场对英镑悲观情绪的进一步升级，否则英镑的下跌趋势难以逆转。正文我们认为英镑如此大幅下跌背后有两个关键原因上周四BOE会议选择鸽派加息：9月初英国新首相上任初始，市场依旧预计BOE会在9月议息会上加息75基点，甚至在会议前一天OIS市场依旧预期本次会议加息70基点，然而MPC的9位委员们以3-5-1的投票选择支持加息50基点（其中3人支持加息75而1人支持加息25）；此外，BOE下调了3季度经济增长的预期（8月上次会上BOE预计增长0.4%而本次会上预计经济增长下降0.1%）即对经济陷入衰退的预期更加浓重。最后，BOE上周会议上决定以100亿英镑/季度的速度开始主动出售其资产负债表上的英国国债（这样就使得未来1年其资产负债表缩小800亿英镑）。市场对此次加息解读为鸽派，而其有关QT的决定更是为第二天英国政府推出大规模减税计划之后英国债券的大幅走低埋下了伏笔。新政府推出的《2022经济增长计划》[2] 与BOE的抗通胀目标产生根本分歧（成功压制通胀带来的大概率“副作用”就是抑制经济增长），而大幅减税的计划也使得市场开始怀疑其债务的可持续性：上周五9月23日英国推出的2022增长计划（THE GROWTH PLAN 2022）设定了一个2.5%的GDP增长目标[3] （英国经济上一次达到这个增长水平还是08年金融危机之前的时候）而为了实现这一目标，新任财政大臣Kwasi Kwarteng公布的一系列减税方案的规模（取消45%的最高所得税税率，并将基本税率从20%降至19%，冻结公司税，取消银行家奖金上限，并在未来两年拿出数十亿美元补贴能源账单）预计将在未来五年耗费1610亿英镑。虽然在特拉斯9月初上任初期，市场就对其一直主张的依靠大幅额外政府发债以及削减各项税收来进行财政刺激的政策有所预期（详见《英国新首相上任的汇率影响》）但周五公布的减税计划的巨大规模是自1972年Ted Health担任首相以来最大规模的减税措施。而投资者对当时的预算案导致通胀失控，进而引发英国此后陷入衰退，而之后花费了整整10年时间，才最终以1976年英国求助了IMF外部援助才得以结束依然记忆犹新。更何况，在这一减税计划推出之前，英国就已经面临了一个典型的发展中国家才会面临的“双赤字”难题：即“财政+贸易”赤字达到了2500亿英镑，而单单是后者就已经在今年一季度占比GDP达到1997年以来的最高水平8.3%，而21年这一比例就已经达到102%（图2）。如此大额的减税计划意味着此后英国不得不大规模发债来维持其政府运作（英国需要额外发行620亿英镑国债，图1）而这也使得市场开始对英国政府的债务可持续性产生了担忧，尤其考虑到目前面临严峻的通胀压力，BOE正处于加息周期之中，而这也就使得英国政府的偿债压力进一步加剧。此外更重要的一点是，BOE为了实现其控制通胀的目标而进行大幅收紧货币政策，这样做大概率会带来经济的下行风险，而这就和新政府推出的经济增长计划出现了根本的分歧。在此背景下，资产价格出现了我们看到的走势：英国国债因政府将要扩大发债规模支持财政因而大幅下跌（国债收益率大涨），而英镑并未受到国债收益率上行的支撑，反而因市场担忧BOE理论上可能会配合财政扩张而淡化通胀目标（比如放缓加息）进而承压大幅走低。图表1：英国财政部发债规模 资料来源：UK Debt Management Office、中金公司研究部图表2：英国政府债务占比GDP资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部后市展望英国央行潜在出面干预的可能性：我们认为，面对当下投资者对英镑的“信心危机”，只有BOE出面才可能放缓英镑下跌的趋势。目前摆在BOE面前的选择如下：本周共有 6位BOE官员会发布讲话（包括上周BOE会上投票加息50基点的3位票委，这其中包括行长Bailey），如果BOE票委表态考虑到最新的财政政策变化，会选择大幅加息或者改变其上周会上作出的缩表决定，那么英国债券市场和英镑的下跌压力将会减少。比起第一个选择，更为有效的做法或许是BOE召开紧急会议并且宣布大幅加息至少100个基点，如此一来一方面会对英镑投机空头形成威震，另一方面将会打消市场对所谓的“财政主导”（BOE放缓加息配合财政扩张）的担忧。鉴于目前货币市场已经预计BOE会在11月之前加息200个基点，显然市场已经开始对此有所预期，而这种情况下BOE出面干预的概率明显加大。理论上，BOE可以选择像BOJ一样直接抛售美元进行外汇干预外汇。不过，考虑到其相对较小的外储规模（毕竟英国只有2100亿英镑左右的外汇储备，况且1992年BOE外汇干预的失败[4] 或许不会使其轻举妄动）在英镑近期继续大幅走低甚至开始挑战平价之前，这种选择的概率或只停留在理论层面。英国央行（BOE）的官方声明未能稳住信心 9月26日盘中，市场对BOE出面干预的预期愈发强烈，英镑也一度自当日亚洲时段“闪跌”低点1.0350反弹至1.0900附近，然而市场的期待等到的只是BOE的官方声明[5] ：“MPC委员会会在下一次计划的会议（即11月的议息会议）上做出全面的考量并且做出相应的决定。”我们认为，这样的一个声明应该不会让英镑空头满意，接下来英镑依旧存在下跌风险。中长期看，特拉斯政府的这一财政刺激计划令外界对于英国政府的财政健康的疑虑加深。在高通胀、高经常项目逆差的宏观组合下，英国政府的高财政赤字有可能会让英国陷入“高通胀->货币贬值->高利率->经济衰退”的恶性循环。在BOE出面之前，我们认为相关的不确定性可能会延续，英镑仍然可能会继续面临较大的压力。衍生品市场看空情绪较为极端或许预示短期的反弹 目前英镑/美元隐含波动率曲线出现明显倒挂（图3），未来3个星期之内的隐含波动率明显升高，而风险反转传达出的看空情绪更是达到了2008年以来的最高水平（图4）。短期内我们不能排除出现short squeeze的可能性（尤其如果BOE出面干预市场），但在市场情绪明显好转之前我们预计英镑依旧在中长期面临较大的波动（9月26号当天1个月期的英镑/美元隐含波动率自2008年以来首次收盘在20%之上）。彭博期权定价模型的推算，年内英镑/美元有60%的概率触及平价（而上周四这一概率只有34%）。从周线级别的走势上看，目前英镑/美元已经跌至2015年以来最为严重的超卖水平，短期反弹的可能性有所加大。周线级别上布林格通道下限和2017年以来的下降趋势线的交点1.0940附近提供近期上方的第一个阻力。而本周一的低点1.0350则提供下方最近的支撑（图5）。图表3：英镑/美元隐含波动率曲线倒挂资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部图表4：英镑/美元风险反转期权：看空英镑情绪达到08年以来最为拥挤水平资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部图表5：英镑/美元目前处于严重超卖区域，短期反弹概率有所升高资料来源：彭博资讯、中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BOE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
