Bluez personal page - To The Moon

Bluez

Bluez

No personal profile

356Follow

6Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-08-13

Yes

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-08-05

Yes

Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks

2021-08-01

Yes

How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment

2021-07-31

Yes

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-17

?

Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023

2021-06-10

Oh

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-08

Good job g7

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-08

Good job g7

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3585481693131980","uuid":"3585481693131980","gmtCreate":1622388824046,"gmtModify":1623161972211,"name":"Bluez","pinyin":"bluez","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":356,"tweetSize":100,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.09","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.46%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":894658362,"gmtCreate":1628823772456,"gmtModify":1676529866554,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894658362","repostId":"2159698722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890507369,"gmtCreate":1628122601351,"gmtModify":1703501532787,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890507369","repostId":"2156717176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156717176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628047054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156717176?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156717176","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncreased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156717176","content_text":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann在最近的一篇研报中表示，标普500指数已经有187天没有出现下跌5%的情况，为过去100年来最长持续时间之一；随着股票和债券越来越贵，多资产组合也变得更容易受到利率和经济增长冲击的影响。\nMueller-Glissmann首先仔细观察了近期的通胀指标，指出盈亏平衡通胀表现优于其他“顺周期”资产。通常来说，这两者在历史上一直是密切相关的；但是近期的表现显示，盈亏平衡通胀与各种历史相关性指标的差异似乎越来越大。\n首先，上周欧洲盈亏平衡通胀（EU breakeven inflation）表现优于周期股等资产（EU Cyclicals vs Defensives）。并且，实际上今年二季度以来就已经出现了这一趋势。\n不仅是欧洲，美国也是如此。去年下半年开始美国盈亏平衡通胀（US breakeves）和顺周期资产（US cyclical vs Defensives）就开始不断脱钩了。\n盈亏平衡通胀通常被用于衡量通胀预期。然而需要注意的是，盈亏平衡通胀的上升并没有反映在更重要的实际利率上。\n相反，随着盈亏平衡通胀的上升，整个期限结构的实际利率一直在下降，欧洲和美国的10年期实际利率均在近期创下了新低。\n对于上述情形，高盛警告，如此低的实际利率水平指向了市场对滞涨风险的定价，而这似乎与经济复苏有些矛盾。在高盛经济学家看来，美国经济复苏大体上处在轨道上，通胀压力最终也会缓解。\n\n 通货再膨胀的核心是债券。债券自6月以来强劲上扬，收益率曲线趋平，不仅暗示了近期经济增长放缓的风险，同时也显示了随着货币和财政支持的消失，新一周期内持续长期停滞的风险。此外，长期限债券收益率下行主要是由实际收益率推动的，而盈亏平衡通胀具有粘性——这表明对滞涨的担忧日益加剧。\n\n对于后市的走势，高盛策略师Mueller-Glissmann表示，市场可能需要一些催化剂来重新定价更高的利率，本周强劲的就业报告可能有助于明晰日后的趋势。\n此外，他还警告，股市调整的风险已经增加了。此外，过去6个月，标普500回报率和债券收益率变化之间的差距不断扩大，再加上实际利率已经非常低了，且股票估值非常高，这使得股票更易受到经济增长和利率的冲击。\n除了上述原因之外，高盛还在报告中给出了其他理由。\n比如，高盛风险偏好指标（Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator）近期重挫。从指数组成来看，增长乐观情绪（RAI PC1）仍处于压力之下。这意味着尽管往后看欧洲和美国的财报季总体强劲，但是考虑到美国财政刺激措施开始令人失望，以及新冠疫情拖累了消费，市场仍然不相信在年底和新周期会出现更多积极的增长动力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802848391,"gmtCreate":1627770544413,"gmtModify":1703495518251,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802848391","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Season</b></p><p>Investors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.</p><p>Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Fed Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>The \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.</p><p>Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility attracts attention</b></p><p>August may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Season</b></p><p>Investors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.</p><p>Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Fed Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>The \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.</p><p>Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility attracts attention</b></p><p>August may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806523083,"gmtCreate":1627681598742,"gmtModify":1703494502516,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806523083","repostId":"1198370900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163664076,"gmtCreate":1623883600395,"gmtModify":1703822214254,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163664076","repostId":"1109204514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109204514","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109204514?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109204514","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将","content":"<p>Although near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases remain unchanged, this week's Fed meeting released a clear signal that more than one rate hike is more likely in two years, that is, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while reducing the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and discount rate remain at 0.10% and 0.25% respectively.</p><p>As in the previous eight post-meeting statements, the Fed continues to promise to use its \"all-range\" policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for longer after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Different from the last bitmap is:</p><p><ul><li>Of the 18 officials who issued expectations,<b>This time, 7 people expect to go to rate hike in 2022</b>, 3 more people than expected last time,<b>The number of people accounts for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time,<b>13 people expect to meet rate hike in 2023, accounting for more than 72%</b>, 6 more people than the last expected 2023 rate hike<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who expect rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% by then,</b>Number of<b>Accounting for more than 61%</b>, 5 more people than expected last time,<b>Five people expect the interest rate to exceed 1% by then</b>, 3 more people than expected last time, the number of<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means that,<b>If a rate hike is 25 basis points</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials this time expect the Fed to conduct at least two rate hike by the end of 2023 on the current basis</b>。</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision at 2 p.m. in the eastern United States, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the 1.50% and 1.51% marks, turning up and rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. The decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Dow falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver dived, spot gold fell again by 0.5% during the day and fell below $1,850, falling more than $10 in the short term. Bitcoin's decline narrowed and returned to above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index rose above the two barriers of 90.70 and 90.80, setting a new one-month high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases remain unchanged, this week's Fed meeting released a clear signal that more than one rate hike is more likely in two years, that is, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while reducing the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and discount rate remain at 0.10% and 0.25% respectively.</p><p>As in the previous eight post-meeting statements, the Fed continues to promise to use its \"all-range\" policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for longer after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Different from the last bitmap is:</p><p><ul><li>Of the 18 officials who issued expectations,<b>This time, 7 people expect to go to rate hike in 2022</b>, 3 more people than expected last time,<b>The number of people accounts for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time,<b>13 people expect to meet rate hike in 2023, accounting for more than 72%</b>, 6 more people than the last expected 2023 rate hike<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who expect rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% by then,</b>Number of<b>Accounting for more than 61%</b>, 5 more people than expected last time,<b>Five people expect the interest rate to exceed 1% by then</b>, 3 more people than expected last time, the number of<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means that,<b>If a rate hike is 25 basis points</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials this time expect the Fed to conduct at least two rate hike by the end of 2023 on the current basis</b>。</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision at 2 p.m. in the eastern United States, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the 1.50% and 1.51% marks, turning up and rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. The decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Dow falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver dived, spot gold fell again by 0.5% during the day and fell below $1,850, falling more than $10 in the short term. Bitcoin's decline narrowed and returned to above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index rose above the two barriers of 90.70 and 90.80, setting a new one-month high.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109204514","content_text":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。\n和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。\n会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：\n\n在18名发布预期的官员中，本次有7人预计2022年将加息，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，人数占比将近40%。\n本次18人中有13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人。\n在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，人数占比超过61%，比上次这样预期者多5人，预计届时利率超过1%的有5人，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数占比将近30%。\n\n这意味着，若一次加息25个基点，那么，本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息。\n在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189506898,"gmtCreate":1623280598514,"gmtModify":1704199806595,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189506898","repostId":"2142824851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117972063,"gmtCreate":1623115310252,"gmtModify":1704196344259,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117972063","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117976651,"gmtCreate":1623115277973,"gmtModify":1704196343767,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585481693131980","authorIdStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117976651","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189506898,"gmtCreate":1623280598514,"gmtModify":1704199806595,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189506898","repostId":"2142824851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142824851","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623274459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142824851?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 05:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes extensive review of stock trading rules","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142824851","media":"新浪财经","summary":"麦朴思表示，必须密切关注央行的举动。美国证券交易委员会主席提议对股票交易规则进行广泛评估华尔街的最高监管机构呼吁对美国股票市场交易规则进行一次广泛评估。美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler周三表示，他要求该机构的工作人员审查与股票交易相关的一系列问题，包括所谓以最佳条件执行交易的要求。他还表示，股票交易结算流程可以缩短到同一天。此前，美元的疲软推动MSCI新兴市场货币指数创历史新高。","content":"<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. \"Godfather of Emerging Markets\": \"Confusion and disorientation\" lead to \"crazy\" trends in the market</b><b>2. U.S. wages unexpectedly rise, one more reason to worry about inflation</b><b>3. Bitcoin has a long way to go to become \"digital gold\"</b><b>4. SEC chairman proposes extensive evaluation of stock trading rules</b><b>5. Cramer: meme stocks \"should be in casinos\" rather than Wall Street</b><b>6. It's time to be bullish on emerging market currencies during the calm period of the foreign exchange market</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7d81f970caefa3d5cd2178ddbc23d2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>'Godfather of Emerging Markets': 'Confusion and disorientation' led to'wild 'moves in markets</b></p><p>Mark Mobius, the \"godfather of emerging markets\", warned that market volatility and central banks' next moves must be watched \"very carefully\", and believed that the \"crazy movement\" of assets such as Bitcoin was driven by \"disorientation and confusion\".</p><p>As the economy recovers from a COVID-19 pandemic and inflation levels rise, the market is interested in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>, in particular speculation has been prevalent for months about when the Fed may begin tapering asset purchases. Mai Pusi said that we must pay close attention to the central bank's actions.</p><p>\"I think any decline in the money supply due to the central bank's withdrawal from easing policy is very bad for the market. So I think this must be observed very carefully,\" Mai Pusi said. \"We are in a very uncertain period, that's for sure\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0176e073727c80bb512179a896c4837f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. wages unexpectedly rise, one more reason to worry about inflation</b></p><p>The unexpected rise in wages in the United States has given financial markets new reasons to worry about inflation.</p><p>Many policymakers and economists believe that the price surge is temporary, partly because they didn't expect the wage increase to be so high. Over the past years, the relative growth of new capital for low-income people has been stagnant.</p><p>Employment in the United States is still well below pre-pandemic levels, and most of the jobs created are currently in low-wage industries such as restaurants and tourism.</p><p>But last week's jobs report showed average hourly wages were higher than expected for the second straight month. Regardless of unemployment numbers, labor supply has proven substantially insufficient, prompting many employers to raise wages or award bonuses to attract talent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7446995499804ec7176aab7dbe841740\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bitcoin has a long way to go to become \"digital gold\"</b></p><p>It doesn't seem enough for Bitcoin to act as \"digital gold\"-a stable modern way to store wealth and hedge against economic trends.</p><p>Volatility remains high on Bitcoin, with prices falling sharply, from a mid-April high of about $63,000 to about $35,000 today. Its volatility far exceeds the movement of gold, and the price movement of Bitcoin is largely irregular. This means that the digital token is inferior to gold in terms of hedging.</p><p>However, some people think that this irregular trend of Bitcoin is beneficial, because it lacks correlation, and it may be an excellent choice for portfolio diversification. But when looking for safe-haven assets, it is a bad choice.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0d306860b243186c6876684697f692\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>SEC Chair Proposes Broad Review of Stock Trading Rules</b></p><p>Wall Street's top regulator has called for a broad review of the trading rules of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said Wednesday that he asked the agency's staff to review a range of issues related to stock trading, including the so-called requirement to execute trades on optimal terms. He also said the stock transaction settlement process could be shortened to the same day.</p><p>\"I believe shortening the standard settlement cycle can reduce the cost and risk of our market,\" he said in a prepared speech for the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a969b09f89902d657ab0d88f0be2a432\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Cramer: meme stocks'should be in casinos' not on Wall Street</b></p><p>Financial media celebrity Jim Cramer said on Wednesday that trading meme stocks is more like gambling than investing.</p><p>\"They're exciting, they're fun, and they're real,\" Kramer said. However, \"If you're going to play, I think you can go to the casino. These should be offered at the casino. Why are they listed on the NYSE?\"</p><p>The retail trading frenzy that began in January has recently returned to the focus of the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>, Bed Bath & Beyond and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Stocks have soared again recently, and the new favorites of WSB concept stocks, Clean Energy Fuels and Clover Health, both rose more than 30% today.</p><p>\"They want to buy everything … you have to try to figure out which (meme stock) is next,\" Kramer said.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0b176db791bc7695bd0a82fe54dde3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>It's time to be bullish on emerging market currencies during the calm period of foreign exchange market</b></p><p>As U.S. interest rates fall and market volatility plummets, emerging market currencies will rise naturally.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>A gauge of expected volatility for developing country currencies and G7 currencies fell to its lowest level since September on Tuesday, boding well for risky assets. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond fell below 1.5%.</p><p>Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Banks including are predicting further gains in emerging market currencies. Previously, the weakness of the US dollar pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index to a record high. While U.S. inflation data on Thursday may provide clues as to when the Fed will begin tapering, market pricing suggests the Fed is not expected to take any policy action at its June 16 meeting.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes extensive review of stock trading rules</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes extensive review of stock trading rules\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 05:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. \"Godfather of Emerging Markets\": \"Confusion and disorientation\" lead to \"crazy\" trends in the market</b><b>2. U.S. wages unexpectedly rise, one more reason to worry about inflation</b><b>3. Bitcoin has a long way to go to become \"digital gold\"</b><b>4. SEC chairman proposes extensive evaluation of stock trading rules</b><b>5. Cramer: meme stocks \"should be in casinos\" rather than Wall Street</b><b>6. It's time to be bullish on emerging market currencies during the calm period of the foreign exchange market</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7d81f970caefa3d5cd2178ddbc23d2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>'Godfather of Emerging Markets': 'Confusion and disorientation' led to'wild 'moves in markets</b></p><p>Mark Mobius, the \"godfather of emerging markets\", warned that market volatility and central banks' next moves must be watched \"very carefully\", and believed that the \"crazy movement\" of assets such as Bitcoin was driven by \"disorientation and confusion\".</p><p>As the economy recovers from a COVID-19 pandemic and inflation levels rise, the market is interested in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>, in particular speculation has been prevalent for months about when the Fed may begin tapering asset purchases. Mai Pusi said that we must pay close attention to the central bank's actions.</p><p>\"I think any decline in the money supply due to the central bank's withdrawal from easing policy is very bad for the market. So I think this must be observed very carefully,\" Mai Pusi said. \"We are in a very uncertain period, that's for sure\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0176e073727c80bb512179a896c4837f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. wages unexpectedly rise, one more reason to worry about inflation</b></p><p>The unexpected rise in wages in the United States has given financial markets new reasons to worry about inflation.</p><p>Many policymakers and economists believe that the price surge is temporary, partly because they didn't expect the wage increase to be so high. Over the past years, the relative growth of new capital for low-income people has been stagnant.</p><p>Employment in the United States is still well below pre-pandemic levels, and most of the jobs created are currently in low-wage industries such as restaurants and tourism.</p><p>But last week's jobs report showed average hourly wages were higher than expected for the second straight month. Regardless of unemployment numbers, labor supply has proven substantially insufficient, prompting many employers to raise wages or award bonuses to attract talent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7446995499804ec7176aab7dbe841740\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bitcoin has a long way to go to become \"digital gold\"</b></p><p>It doesn't seem enough for Bitcoin to act as \"digital gold\"-a stable modern way to store wealth and hedge against economic trends.</p><p>Volatility remains high on Bitcoin, with prices falling sharply, from a mid-April high of about $63,000 to about $35,000 today. Its volatility far exceeds the movement of gold, and the price movement of Bitcoin is largely irregular. This means that the digital token is inferior to gold in terms of hedging.</p><p>However, some people think that this irregular trend of Bitcoin is beneficial, because it lacks correlation, and it may be an excellent choice for portfolio diversification. But when looking for safe-haven assets, it is a bad choice.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0d306860b243186c6876684697f692\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>SEC Chair Proposes Broad Review of Stock Trading Rules</b></p><p>Wall Street's top regulator has called for a broad review of the trading rules of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said Wednesday that he asked the agency's staff to review a range of issues related to stock trading, including the so-called requirement to execute trades on optimal terms. He also said the stock transaction settlement process could be shortened to the same day.</p><p>\"I believe shortening the standard settlement cycle can reduce the cost and risk of our market,\" he said in a prepared speech for the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a969b09f89902d657ab0d88f0be2a432\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Cramer: meme stocks'should be in casinos' not on Wall Street</b></p><p>Financial media celebrity Jim Cramer said on Wednesday that trading meme stocks is more like gambling than investing.</p><p>\"They're exciting, they're fun, and they're real,\" Kramer said. However, \"If you're going to play, I think you can go to the casino. These should be offered at the casino. Why are they listed on the NYSE?\"</p><p>The retail trading frenzy that began in January has recently returned to the focus of the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>, Bed Bath & Beyond and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Stocks have soared again recently, and the new favorites of WSB concept stocks, Clean Energy Fuels and Clover Health, both rose more than 30% today.</p><p>\"They want to buy everything … you have to try to figure out which (meme stock) is next,\" Kramer said.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0b176db791bc7695bd0a82fe54dde3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>It's time to be bullish on emerging market currencies during the calm period of foreign exchange market</b></p><p>As U.S. interest rates fall and market volatility plummets, emerging market currencies will rise naturally.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>A gauge of expected volatility for developing country currencies and G7 currencies fell to its lowest level since September on Tuesday, boding well for risky assets. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond fell below 1.5%.</p><p>Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Banks including are predicting further gains in emerging market currencies. Previously, the weakness of the US dollar pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index to a record high. While U.S. inflation data on Thursday may provide clues as to when the Fed will begin tapering, market pricing suggests the Fed is not expected to take any policy action at its June 16 meeting.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-10/doc-ikqciyzi8751188.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762ef028f6d872233012dadb1fe341db","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","EBON":"亿邦国际","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","CAN":"嘉楠科技","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-10/doc-ikqciyzi8751188.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142824851","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、“新兴市场教父”：“困惑和迷失方向”导致市场出现“疯狂”走势\n\n\n2、美国薪资水平意外上涨 担忧通胀的理由又多了一个\n\n\n3、比特币要成为“数字黄金” 前路漫漫其修远兮\n\n\n4、美国证券交易委员会主席提议对股票交易规则进行广泛评估\n\n\n5、克莱默：meme股票“应该出现在赌场”而不是华尔街\n\n\n6、外汇市场风平浪静期 看涨新兴市场货币正当时\n\n“新兴市场教父”：“困惑和迷失方向”导致市场出现“疯狂”走势\n“新兴市场教父”麦朴思（Mark Mobius）警告称，必须“非常仔细地”关注市场波动和央行的下一步行动，并认为比特币等资产的“疯狂走势”是由“迷失方向和困惑”驱动的。\n随着经济从新冠疫情中复苏以及通胀水平的上升，市场对中央银行，特别是美联储何时可能开始缩减资产购买的猜测已经盛行数月。麦朴思表示，必须密切关注央行的举动。\n“我认为，由于中央银行退出宽松政策而导致货币供应量的任何回落对市场都非常不利。所以我认为必须非常仔细地观察这一点，”麦朴思称，“我们处于一个非常不确定的时期，这是肯定的”。美国薪资水平意外上涨 担忧通胀的理由又多了一个\n美国薪资水平的意外上涨让金融市场有了新的担心通胀的理由。\n许多政策制定者和经济学家认为价格飙升是暂时的，部分原因是他们未料想到薪资涨幅会如此之高。过去多年来，低收入人群的新资一直相对增长停滞。\n现在美国的就业人数仍远低于疫情爆发前水平，目前创造的大多数工作岗位都在低工资行业，如餐饮和旅游业。\n但上周的就业报告显示，平均小时工资连续第二个月高于预期。事实证明，无论失业数字如何，劳动力供应实质上不足，这促使许多雇主提高工资或发放奖金以吸引人才。比特币要成为“数字黄金” 前路漫漫其修远兮\n比特币要充当“数字黄金”——一种稳定的储存财富、对冲经济趋势的现代方式，似乎还不太够。\n比特币的波动仍然高企，价格急剧下跌，从4月中的高点约63000美元跌至今天的约35000美元。其波动远远超过了黄金的走势，而比特币的价格变动在很大程度上是不规律的。这意味着该数字代币在对冲方面不及黄金。\n一些人却认为比特币这种不规律的动向是有利的，因为缺乏相关性，可能是优良的投资组合多元化选择。但在寻求避险资产时，则是糟糕的选择。美国证券交易委员会主席提议对股票交易规则进行广泛评估\n华尔街的最高监管机构呼吁对美国股票市场交易规则进行一次广泛评估。\n美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler周三表示，他要求该机构的工作人员审查与股票交易相关的一系列问题，包括所谓以最佳条件执行交易的要求。他还表示，股票交易结算流程可以缩短到同一天。\n他在为Piper Sandler全球交易所和金融科技会议准备好的讲话中称，“我相信缩短标准结算周期可以降低我们市场的成本和风险。”克莱默：meme股票“应该出现在赌场”而不是华尔街\n财经媒体名嘴吉姆克莱默（Jim Cramer）周三表示，交易meme股票更像是赌博而不是投资。\n“它们令人兴奋，很有趣，而且很真实，”克莱默说。然而，“如果你要玩，我认为你可以去赌场。这些应该在赌场提供。为什么它们会在纽约证券交易所上市？”\n1月份开始的散户交易狂潮最近又重新成为市场焦点。AMC院线、Bed Bath & Beyond和黑莓股票近期均再度出现大幅飙升，而WSB概念股新宠Clean Energy Fuels和Clover Health今日均涨超30%。\n“他们什么都想买……你必须试着弄清楚下一个（meme股）是哪个，”克莱默说。外汇市场风平浪静期 看涨新兴市场货币正当时\n随着美国利率走低、市场波动性大跌，新兴市场货币上涨将会水到渠成。\n摩根大通的发展中国家货币和七国集团货币预期波动性指标周二跌至9月以来的最低水平，对风险资产是个好兆头。周三，美国10年期国债收益率跌破1.5%。\n包括花旗和高盛在内的银行正在预测新兴市场货币进一步上涨。此前，美元的疲软推动MSCI新兴市场货币指数创历史新高。虽然美国周四的通胀数据可能会提供有关美联储何时开始减码的线索，但市场定价表明美联储在6月16日的会议上估计不会采取任何政策行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802848391,"gmtCreate":1627770544413,"gmtModify":1703495518251,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802848391","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Season</b></p><p>Investors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.</p><p>Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Fed Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>The \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.</p><p>Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility attracts attention</b></p><p>August may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the global market go in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July comes to an end, investors begin to pay attention to the hot market events in August. The Federal Reserve is the focus as always, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August usually brings a slowdown in U.S. stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, because nearly half of companies have reported earnings during this period. However, at least from a historical perspective, there are still some weak seasonal trends in the stock market going into September. This is something to watch, especially given that both inflation and stock valuations remain a concern.</p><p><b>Corporate Earnings Season</b></p><p>Investors can refocus on corporate earnings season after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long term, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. By the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was perfectly in line with analysts' expectations and even partially beat them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 dropped 2% on fears of a Delta virus mutation, and there was a slight move; But in late July, the outstanding performance of the earnings season basically boosted the major sectors of the U.S. stock market. Into August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a>Performance worries many investors. There are signs that as the virus spreads further, more countries and regions will re-tighten restrictions on outbound travel.</p><p>Markets can't anticipate changes in the virus, but if things worsen, it could mean a return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, which are fixed income, mega-cap tech stocks and the dollar.</p><p>Going back to profitability, from big banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, many companies performed fairly well in July reports, as did airlines and railroads. There is an argument that if railroads work well, the broader economy will do well, as transport tends to be a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor earnings expectations are also rising for the full quarter, with analysts now expecting second-quarter earnings to rise 74.2%, compared with a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in multiple sectors (led by financial, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported earnings that beat expectations, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>But on the other hand, market weaknesses remain, such as in semiconductors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither of them failed to impress investors with their stock prices on the defensive. In addition, investors have digested the expectation of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to perform well beyond expectations or have a wide room for growth in order to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise sharply on strong results.</p><p><b>Fed Policy Support and Economic Data</b></p><p>The \"not fighting the Fed\" doesn't seem to have changed either. It's a term coined decades ago by traders who thought the Fed would step in to shore up the stock market during any downturn. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the central bank remains committed to easy monetary policy and that high inflation is likely to cool.</p><p>The Fed's rhetoric will affect \"key indicators\" of global assets: Will US Treasury Bond yields return to an upward path in August, or will they fall below their nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields tend to help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as tech, while rising yields tend to help \"cyclical\" sectors such as financials and energy. The tug of war between growth and value that has continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, there was a lot on Wall Street that Jackson Hole could be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited tapering of its stimulus plan. That doesn't have to be the case now: U.S. bond yields have fallen steadily since the end of March, seemingly giving the Fed more room to maneuver in order to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. It's a tactic the Fed uses to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to have worked.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3% by the end of July. This is a surprisingly low yield given economic growth and high inflation month after month.</p><p>Both President Powell and President Biden said in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most in the market will be paying close attention to July consumer and producer prices due in August, as well as the July jobs report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus is likely now turning more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, that could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>By the time the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Fed is ready to act, or at least predict stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Some economists point to the Fed's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which is providing unnecessary ammunition to an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility attracts attention</b></p><p>August may be a time to give investors a breather. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor has been disrupted a bit last year, but Wall Street may have had a more normal holiday schedule if fear of the pandemic hadn't continued to grow.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 tend to indicate that one expects less turmoil ahead.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that the seasonal factors in August are not favorable to the market. Judging from historical data, U.S. stocks showed a downward trend throughout August, which is the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Since 1950, in 72 years, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% 19 times in the first half of that year. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half, the median return in August typically falls 51 basis points before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806523083,"gmtCreate":1627681598742,"gmtModify":1703494502516,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806523083","repostId":"1198370900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198370900","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"56","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1627658786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198370900?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 23:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind \"buying a house by ticket\", is the big change in the property market really coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198370900","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"2021年春节过后，原本平静的武汉楼市突然躁动起来。\n短短两个月的时间里，武汉光谷关山大道的中建大公馆、金地格林东郡、泛悦城等楼盘，从2万元/平方米左右的价格，涨到了3、4万元/平方米。\n而房价飞涨的","content":"<p><b>After the Spring Festival in 2021, the originally calm Wuhan property market suddenly became restless.</b></p><p>In just two months, the price of China Construction Mansion, Gemdale Green East County, Fanyue City and other real estate projects on Guanshan Avenue, Guanggu, Wuhan has risen from about 20,000 yuan/square meter to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Behind the soaring house prices, investors from Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Zaozhuang and other places are crazy about \"real estate speculation\" by taking advantage of Wuhan's relatively loose settlement policy and purchase restriction policy.</p><p>At that time, the locals in Wuhan who suffered greatly told the media: \"I hate these foreign real estate speculators. When can the government strictly restrict purchases?\"</p><p>The people of Wuhan didn't wait long. Three months later, on July 28th, Wuhan Housing Authority issued a draft for comments on strengthening the management of house purchase qualifications. After the release of the opinion draft, the topic of \"Wuhan will implement buying a house by house ticket\" quickly caused heated discussion on the Internet.</p><p>Is Wuhan going to enter the era of \"buying a house with a house ticket\"? Some people support this news, some question it, and others worry that \"real estate speculation\" will become \"real estate speculation tickets\".</p><p>However, no matter how you interpret it, the signal of \"tightening\" of the property market released by Wuhan is clear. In fact, Wuhan is not the only city that is \"tightening\" the property market policy.</p><p>Ifeng.com's \"Eye of the Storm\" found that since 2021, local governments including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc. have issued stricter regulatory policies for the real estate market.</p><p>With the off-campus education and training industry ushering in subversive changes, many people can't help but ask:<b>Is the great change of China's property market coming?</b></p><p>Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, told Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm: \"These policies will increase and enhance the difficulty and cost of buying houses for investment demand in the short term, thus curbing the overheating of the property market to a certain extent. However, in the long run, if the actual market supply and demand relationship does not change, and the population, land and financial policies that affect housing prices do not change greatly, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on housing prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9284d07634672a560d0f50a2e3314\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. What exactly is \"buying a house by ticket\" in Wuhan?</b></p><p>What are the stipulations of Wuhan's policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\", which has caused heated discussion on the Internet?</p><p>On July 28th, in order to adhere to the positioning of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and further strengthen the management of housing purchase qualifications in Wuhan, Wuhan Housing Authority issued the Notice of the Municipal Housing Security Housing Authority on Strengthening the Management of Housing Purchase Qualifications (Draft for Comment), and publicly solicited opinions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8d8c23e8cca1ee4ca8d5d15731bf9\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the opinion draft, in the application for house purchase qualification, intended buyers who meet the purchase restriction area can apply for house purchase qualification through the official platform or through developers and intermediaries.</p><p>The housing management departments of each district shall complete the purchase qualification accreditation within 48 hours from the time of application, and feed back the accreditation results to the applicant. The purchase qualification accreditation results will be valid within 60 days from the date of issuance.</p><p>The \"Draft for Comment\" also requires that after the house purchase registration is completed, the result of the house purchase qualification certification will be locked immediately, and the house purchase registration shall not be carried out again during the lock-up period. After the opening of the sale, the qualification result of house purchase will be automatically unlocked.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The related idea of 'buying a house by ticket' in Wuhan is still in the stage of soliciting opinions. This is a proposed system design to strengthen the control of the property market and based on the qualification access of buyers.\"</p><p>Then, what impact will the policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\" have on the property market in Wuhan?</p><p>Zhuge Housing Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The policy of buying a house by ticket is a new patch policy of the previous policy, and it is also a supplement and improvement to the purchase restriction policy. To a certain extent, it can curb market chaos, play a positive role in regulating real estate market transactions, effectively crack down on some developers who create false hot sales scenes, and to a certain extent, it can curb real estate speculation.\"</p><p>Zhu Xiaohong, president of China Luxury Housing Research Institute, told Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm: \"Buying a house by ticket is similar to housing intervention in Hong Kong and South Korea. It is good to crack down on real estate speculation and control excessive consumption of housing products, but to prevent'personal gain with room tickets'and'buying and selling room tickets', we must ensure that room tickets are given to the right person.\"</p><p>Bai Wenxi also expressed similar concerns. He said: \"On the surface, room tickets will control demand and crack down on real estate speculation, but in fact they are done by suppressing demand and not increasing supply. If they are not used properly, they may aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand, lead to power corruption, and aggravate all kinds of disguised real estate speculation and underground real estate speculation.\"</p><p><b>02. Local governments have intensively introduced policies, and the signal of \"tightening\" is obvious</b></p><p>In fact, Wuhan's policy adjustment on house purchase qualifications may have started as early as 2020.</p><p>In January last year, Wuhan implemented the whole process of commercial housing qualification verification online. Intended buyers can apply for qualification through official website of Wuhan Housing Authority and inquire about the results. If they pass the examination, they can get the examination information such as number and QR code. This information is valid for purchasing a house within 60 days, and they need to re-apply after expiration.</p><p>It can be seen that as early as 2020, Wuhan City has set up the prototype of the mechanism of \"buying a house with a house ticket\". The draft for comments this time is also a supplement and improvement to the first customs policy.</p><p>In addition to Wuhan, first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, second-and third-tier cities such as Jiaxing, Foshan and Wuxi, and central departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have also successively issued a series of policies to strengthen supervision of the real estate market.</p><p>On January 5, in an interview with the media, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, reiterated the policy principles of adhering to housing for living, not speculation, and implementing the long-term mechanism of real estate, saying that housing for living, not speculation, will remain the main tone of the policy in 2021. At the same time, the long-term mechanism continues to implement and improve signals.</p><p>For example, Shanghai also explicitly continued to implement the pilot project of property tax in January. At the same time, Shanghai also aims at the phenomenon of \"fake divorce, real house purchase\", stipulating that if a husband and wife divorce, if either party purchases commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the husband and wife shall be calculated according to the total number of households before divorce. Adjust the value-added tax collection and exemption period. Increase the value-added tax exemption period for personal sales of housing from 2 years to 5 years.</p><p>In March, Xi'an also issued a new purchase restriction policy, stipulating that if a house buyer defrauds or evades the purchase restriction policy through \"holding on behalf of others\", he/she and the \"holding on behalf of others\" will be included in the list of untrustworthy buyers in our city, and will not be allowed to buy a house within 5 years</p><p>In June, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Administration of Taxation, and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that four government non-tax revenues, including the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, would be transferred to the tax authorities for collection, which once caused heated discussion.</p><p>On July 23rd, eight departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a notice on continuously rectifying and standardizing the order of the real estate market, which comprehensively regulated the order of the real estate market from four aspects: real estate development, housing sales, housing leasing and property services.</p><p>On July 30, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a system-wide 2021 mid-year work symposium and discipline inspection and supervision work (video and telephone) symposium. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to strictly implement the requirements of \"three lines and four grades\" and the concentration of real estate loans, so as to prevent bancassurance funds from bypassing and illegally flowing into the real estate market.</p><p>According to the incomplete statistics of Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm, since January this year, local governments and relevant central departments have issued more than 40 regulatory and regulatory policies for the real estate market and its derivative services. The number and density are relatively rare in recent years.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"At present, there are three reasons for the adjustment of real estate policies: the first is to prevent financial risks caused by real estate; Second, it is necessary to reduce the total cost of economic operation represented by real estate under the internal circulation mode; Third, it is necessary to reduce the pressure of living costs to increase fertility willingness and maintain sustainable population development.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a08ad922ffa471f7aea8f0400a29bb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Real estate companies \"no longer in the limelight\" and their stock prices sharply pullback/retracement</b></p><p>Policy changes have also directly affected listed companies in the real estate industry.</p><p>Benefiting from the rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years, a large number of giant real estate listed companies have been born in China, and real estate companies were once regarded as a symbol of \"not short of money\".</p><p>Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, who has passed away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Chairman Zuo Hui and other real estate tycoons have all ascended to the throne of \"the richest man\".</p><p>However, with the state beginning to regulate the \"overheated\" real estate market and the introduction of a series of strict regulatory policies, these listed real estate companies have also encountered the problem of \"turning around in a catastrophe\", and problems such as capital chain breakage, income decline, stock price decline and high debt also followed.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium on key real estate enterprises in Beijing, which clarified the fund monitoring and financing management rules of key real estate enterprises, which is the \"three red lines\" that have been rumored many times in the industry before.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\", among the 40 leading real estate companies listed on Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, more than half of the companies' stock prices are more than 30% away from the highest pullback/retracement within 52 weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face4ce6faa97c257718c9108ee3c3b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1003\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, during the collective \"big dive\" of A-shares on Monday and Tuesday this week, due to concerns about the policy supervision of the real estate market, A-share real estate stocks also collectively fell sharply.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000718\">Suning Global</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600773\">Tibet City Investment</a>It once fell more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfca5e8a01f143057cf5d1f41a95b53\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>04. Is the big change in the property market coming?</b></p><p>Wuhan's policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\" also reminds many people of \"food stamps\" and \"meat stamps\" in the planned economy era. So, does \"buying a house with a house ticket\" really mean returning to the era of planned economy? Will it trigger other cities to follow up?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb31adddcc3e0bf4814fad90b355b71b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bai Wenxi said that it has been nearly 30 years since China bid farewell to the ticket era, and the launch of Wuhan's \"room ticket\" has touched and evoked people's memories of the era of insufficient supply and tickets everywhere in the planned economy era. As one of the industries with the highest public attention, the \"room ticket\" incident in Wuhan, which is still brewing, will most likely be pushed to the \"hot search\".</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that the room ticket itself is based on the system design of compressing demand by access control, and then changing the relationship between supply and demand in the property market to prevent the property market from overheating. However, the logical regulation of the property market needs to start from both ends of supply and demand. While limiting and suppressing demand with quantitative tools and price tools, it is also necessary to balance the relationship between supply and demand by increasing market supply.</p><p>\"Therefore, if we really want to stabilize the supply and demand relationship in the property market, we should try our best to reduce and eliminate all kinds of control measures at both ends of supply and demand, guide the allocation of resources and factors and reconstruct the supply and demand relationship with the price mechanism, let alone restore the tickets of the planned economy era.\" Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5109cefd2de75f41c0a1a0f3da6acbb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Whether it's the policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\" introduced by Wuhan this time, a series of regulatory policies on the real estate market introduced by local governments this year, or the rumored \"real estate tax\" to be introduced soon, do these mean that China's property market will usher in a big change?</p><p>Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm: \"The introduction of real estate tax may usher in another reshuffle of the real estate market.\"</p><p>\"From the current real estate policy adjustment, it is the main tone of China's real estate market to insist on living in housing without speculation. Under this principle, first of all, it is necessary to curb the excessive rise of house prices through policy regulation and promote the market to gradually return to the rational stage; Secondly, constantly improve and standardize the real estate market system, crack down on some behaviors of speculating on house prices and exploiting policy loopholes in time, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market; Third, tilt limited resources to groups in just-needed needs to provide home buyers with a more stable real estate environment. \"</p><p>Zhuge Housing Data Research Center believes that with the introduction of these policies, the interests of the real just-needed groups have been guaranteed, and the mentality of buying houses has gradually become rational, which has played a certain role in inhibiting the excessive rise of house prices. In the long run, after strict policy regulation, housing prices in first-tier cities will tend to run smoothly.</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that if the property tax is really introduced soon, it does mean that the real estate market will usher in a major change, but in fact, the real estate tax has not been submitted for deliberation according to the legislative procedure, and it will not be introduced soon, and there is no timetable.</p><p>Bai Wenxi said that if these policies do not start with expanding the supply side, but only take measures such as quantitative tools to control demand-side access, such as room tickets, and price tools to control demand-side, such as mortgage ratio and interest rate, the result may just raise the soup and stop boiling, or even rise more and more.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind \"buying a house by ticket\", is the big change in the property market really coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind \"buying a house by ticket\", is the big change in the property market really coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/56\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-30 23:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>After the Spring Festival in 2021, the originally calm Wuhan property market suddenly became restless.</b></p><p>In just two months, the price of China Construction Mansion, Gemdale Green East County, Fanyue City and other real estate projects on Guanshan Avenue, Guanggu, Wuhan has risen from about 20,000 yuan/square meter to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Behind the soaring house prices, investors from Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Zaozhuang and other places are crazy about \"real estate speculation\" by taking advantage of Wuhan's relatively loose settlement policy and purchase restriction policy.</p><p>At that time, the locals in Wuhan who suffered greatly told the media: \"I hate these foreign real estate speculators. When can the government strictly restrict purchases?\"</p><p>The people of Wuhan didn't wait long. Three months later, on July 28th, Wuhan Housing Authority issued a draft for comments on strengthening the management of house purchase qualifications. After the release of the opinion draft, the topic of \"Wuhan will implement buying a house by house ticket\" quickly caused heated discussion on the Internet.</p><p>Is Wuhan going to enter the era of \"buying a house with a house ticket\"? Some people support this news, some question it, and others worry that \"real estate speculation\" will become \"real estate speculation tickets\".</p><p>However, no matter how you interpret it, the signal of \"tightening\" of the property market released by Wuhan is clear. In fact, Wuhan is not the only city that is \"tightening\" the property market policy.</p><p>Ifeng.com's \"Eye of the Storm\" found that since 2021, local governments including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc. have issued stricter regulatory policies for the real estate market.</p><p>With the off-campus education and training industry ushering in subversive changes, many people can't help but ask:<b>Is the great change of China's property market coming?</b></p><p>Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, told Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm: \"These policies will increase and enhance the difficulty and cost of buying houses for investment demand in the short term, thus curbing the overheating of the property market to a certain extent. However, in the long run, if the actual market supply and demand relationship does not change, and the population, land and financial policies that affect housing prices do not change greatly, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on housing prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9284d07634672a560d0f50a2e3314\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. What exactly is \"buying a house by ticket\" in Wuhan?</b></p><p>What are the stipulations of Wuhan's policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\", which has caused heated discussion on the Internet?</p><p>On July 28th, in order to adhere to the positioning of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and further strengthen the management of housing purchase qualifications in Wuhan, Wuhan Housing Authority issued the Notice of the Municipal Housing Security Housing Authority on Strengthening the Management of Housing Purchase Qualifications (Draft for Comment), and publicly solicited opinions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8d8c23e8cca1ee4ca8d5d15731bf9\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the opinion draft, in the application for house purchase qualification, intended buyers who meet the purchase restriction area can apply for house purchase qualification through the official platform or through developers and intermediaries.</p><p>The housing management departments of each district shall complete the purchase qualification accreditation within 48 hours from the time of application, and feed back the accreditation results to the applicant. The purchase qualification accreditation results will be valid within 60 days from the date of issuance.</p><p>The \"Draft for Comment\" also requires that after the house purchase registration is completed, the result of the house purchase qualification certification will be locked immediately, and the house purchase registration shall not be carried out again during the lock-up period. After the opening of the sale, the qualification result of house purchase will be automatically unlocked.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The related idea of 'buying a house by ticket' in Wuhan is still in the stage of soliciting opinions. This is a proposed system design to strengthen the control of the property market and based on the qualification access of buyers.\"</p><p>Then, what impact will the policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\" have on the property market in Wuhan?</p><p>Zhuge Housing Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The policy of buying a house by ticket is a new patch policy of the previous policy, and it is also a supplement and improvement to the purchase restriction policy. To a certain extent, it can curb market chaos, play a positive role in regulating real estate market transactions, effectively crack down on some developers who create false hot sales scenes, and to a certain extent, it can curb real estate speculation.\"</p><p>Zhu Xiaohong, president of China Luxury Housing Research Institute, told Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm: \"Buying a house by ticket is similar to housing intervention in Hong Kong and South Korea. It is good to crack down on real estate speculation and control excessive consumption of housing products, but to prevent'personal gain with room tickets'and'buying and selling room tickets', we must ensure that room tickets are given to the right person.\"</p><p>Bai Wenxi also expressed similar concerns. He said: \"On the surface, room tickets will control demand and crack down on real estate speculation, but in fact they are done by suppressing demand and not increasing supply. If they are not used properly, they may aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand, lead to power corruption, and aggravate all kinds of disguised real estate speculation and underground real estate speculation.\"</p><p><b>02. Local governments have intensively introduced policies, and the signal of \"tightening\" is obvious</b></p><p>In fact, Wuhan's policy adjustment on house purchase qualifications may have started as early as 2020.</p><p>In January last year, Wuhan implemented the whole process of commercial housing qualification verification online. Intended buyers can apply for qualification through official website of Wuhan Housing Authority and inquire about the results. If they pass the examination, they can get the examination information such as number and QR code. This information is valid for purchasing a house within 60 days, and they need to re-apply after expiration.</p><p>It can be seen that as early as 2020, Wuhan City has set up the prototype of the mechanism of \"buying a house with a house ticket\". The draft for comments this time is also a supplement and improvement to the first customs policy.</p><p>In addition to Wuhan, first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, second-and third-tier cities such as Jiaxing, Foshan and Wuxi, and central departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have also successively issued a series of policies to strengthen supervision of the real estate market.</p><p>On January 5, in an interview with the media, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, reiterated the policy principles of adhering to housing for living, not speculation, and implementing the long-term mechanism of real estate, saying that housing for living, not speculation, will remain the main tone of the policy in 2021. At the same time, the long-term mechanism continues to implement and improve signals.</p><p>For example, Shanghai also explicitly continued to implement the pilot project of property tax in January. At the same time, Shanghai also aims at the phenomenon of \"fake divorce, real house purchase\", stipulating that if a husband and wife divorce, if either party purchases commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the husband and wife shall be calculated according to the total number of households before divorce. Adjust the value-added tax collection and exemption period. Increase the value-added tax exemption period for personal sales of housing from 2 years to 5 years.</p><p>In March, Xi'an also issued a new purchase restriction policy, stipulating that if a house buyer defrauds or evades the purchase restriction policy through \"holding on behalf of others\", he/she and the \"holding on behalf of others\" will be included in the list of untrustworthy buyers in our city, and will not be allowed to buy a house within 5 years</p><p>In June, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Administration of Taxation, and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that four government non-tax revenues, including the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, would be transferred to the tax authorities for collection, which once caused heated discussion.</p><p>On July 23rd, eight departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a notice on continuously rectifying and standardizing the order of the real estate market, which comprehensively regulated the order of the real estate market from four aspects: real estate development, housing sales, housing leasing and property services.</p><p>On July 30, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a system-wide 2021 mid-year work symposium and discipline inspection and supervision work (video and telephone) symposium. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to strictly implement the requirements of \"three lines and four grades\" and the concentration of real estate loans, so as to prevent bancassurance funds from bypassing and illegally flowing into the real estate market.</p><p>According to the incomplete statistics of Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm, since January this year, local governments and relevant central departments have issued more than 40 regulatory and regulatory policies for the real estate market and its derivative services. The number and density are relatively rare in recent years.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"At present, there are three reasons for the adjustment of real estate policies: the first is to prevent financial risks caused by real estate; Second, it is necessary to reduce the total cost of economic operation represented by real estate under the internal circulation mode; Third, it is necessary to reduce the pressure of living costs to increase fertility willingness and maintain sustainable population development.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a08ad922ffa471f7aea8f0400a29bb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Real estate companies \"no longer in the limelight\" and their stock prices sharply pullback/retracement</b></p><p>Policy changes have also directly affected listed companies in the real estate industry.</p><p>Benefiting from the rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years, a large number of giant real estate listed companies have been born in China, and real estate companies were once regarded as a symbol of \"not short of money\".</p><p>Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, who has passed away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Chairman Zuo Hui and other real estate tycoons have all ascended to the throne of \"the richest man\".</p><p>However, with the state beginning to regulate the \"overheated\" real estate market and the introduction of a series of strict regulatory policies, these listed real estate companies have also encountered the problem of \"turning around in a catastrophe\", and problems such as capital chain breakage, income decline, stock price decline and high debt also followed.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium on key real estate enterprises in Beijing, which clarified the fund monitoring and financing management rules of key real estate enterprises, which is the \"three red lines\" that have been rumored many times in the industry before.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\", among the 40 leading real estate companies listed on Hong Kong stocks and A-shares, more than half of the companies' stock prices are more than 30% away from the highest pullback/retracement within 52 weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face4ce6faa97c257718c9108ee3c3b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1003\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, during the collective \"big dive\" of A-shares on Monday and Tuesday this week, due to concerns about the policy supervision of the real estate market, A-share real estate stocks also collectively fell sharply.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000718\">Suning Global</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600773\">Tibet City Investment</a>It once fell more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfca5e8a01f143057cf5d1f41a95b53\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>04. Is the big change in the property market coming?</b></p><p>Wuhan's policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\" also reminds many people of \"food stamps\" and \"meat stamps\" in the planned economy era. So, does \"buying a house with a house ticket\" really mean returning to the era of planned economy? Will it trigger other cities to follow up?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb31adddcc3e0bf4814fad90b355b71b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bai Wenxi said that it has been nearly 30 years since China bid farewell to the ticket era, and the launch of Wuhan's \"room ticket\" has touched and evoked people's memories of the era of insufficient supply and tickets everywhere in the planned economy era. As one of the industries with the highest public attention, the \"room ticket\" incident in Wuhan, which is still brewing, will most likely be pushed to the \"hot search\".</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that the room ticket itself is based on the system design of compressing demand by access control, and then changing the relationship between supply and demand in the property market to prevent the property market from overheating. However, the logical regulation of the property market needs to start from both ends of supply and demand. While limiting and suppressing demand with quantitative tools and price tools, it is also necessary to balance the relationship between supply and demand by increasing market supply.</p><p>\"Therefore, if we really want to stabilize the supply and demand relationship in the property market, we should try our best to reduce and eliminate all kinds of control measures at both ends of supply and demand, guide the allocation of resources and factors and reconstruct the supply and demand relationship with the price mechanism, let alone restore the tickets of the planned economy era.\" Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5109cefd2de75f41c0a1a0f3da6acbb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Whether it's the policy of \"buying a house with a house ticket\" introduced by Wuhan this time, a series of regulatory policies on the real estate market introduced by local governments this year, or the rumored \"real estate tax\" to be introduced soon, do these mean that China's property market will usher in a big change?</p><p>Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's Eye of the Storm: \"The introduction of real estate tax may usher in another reshuffle of the real estate market.\"</p><p>\"From the current real estate policy adjustment, it is the main tone of China's real estate market to insist on living in housing without speculation. Under this principle, first of all, it is necessary to curb the excessive rise of house prices through policy regulation and promote the market to gradually return to the rational stage; Secondly, constantly improve and standardize the real estate market system, crack down on some behaviors of speculating on house prices and exploiting policy loopholes in time, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market; Third, tilt limited resources to groups in just-needed needs to provide home buyers with a more stable real estate environment. \"</p><p>Zhuge Housing Data Research Center believes that with the introduction of these policies, the interests of the real just-needed groups have been guaranteed, and the mentality of buying houses has gradually become rational, which has played a certain role in inhibiting the excessive rise of house prices. In the long run, after strict policy regulation, housing prices in first-tier cities will tend to run smoothly.</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that if the property tax is really introduced soon, it does mean that the real estate market will usher in a major change, but in fact, the real estate tax has not been submitted for deliberation according to the legislative procedure, and it will not be introduced soon, and there is no timetable.</p><p>Bai Wenxi said that if these policies do not start with expanding the supply side, but only take measures such as quantitative tools to control demand-side access, such as room tickets, and price tools to control demand-side, such as mortgage ratio and interest rate, the result may just raise the soup and stop boiling, or even rise more and more.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198370900","content_text":"2021年春节过后，原本平静的武汉楼市突然躁动起来。\n短短两个月的时间里，武汉光谷关山大道的中建大公馆、金地格林东郡、泛悦城等楼盘，从2万元/平方米左右的价格，涨到了3、4万元/平方米。\n而房价飞涨的背后，是来自深圳、徐州、枣庄等地的投资客们，利用武汉市相对宽松的落户政策和限购政策，疯狂“炒房”。\n当时，深受其害的武汉当地人对媒体表示：“恨死了这些外地炒房客，政府啥时候能严格限购啊？”\n武汉人民并未等太久。3个月后，7月28日，武汉市房管局发布了关于加强购房资格管理的征求意见稿。意见稿发布后，“武汉将实施凭房票买房”的话题也迅速在网络上引起热议。\n武汉要进入“凭房票买房”时代了？对这个消息，有人支持，有人质疑，还有人担心“炒房”会变成“炒房票”。\n不过，无论如何解读，武汉释放出的楼市“收紧”的信号则是明确的。实际上，正在“收紧”楼市政策的不止武汉一个城市。\n凤凰网《风暴眼》发现，进入2021年以来，包括北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州等在内的地方政府，都发布了针对房地产市场的更为严格的监管政策。\n随着校外教培行业迎来颠覆式的大变革，很多人也不禁发问：中国楼市的大变革，也要来了吗？\n中国企业资本联盟副理事长、IPG中国首席经济学家柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“这些政策在短期内会加大和提升投资性需求的购房难度与成本，从而从一定程度上抑制楼市过热问题。但长期来看，如果实际的市场供求关系不改变，影响房价的人口、土地、金融政策不作大的改变，则很难对房价产生实质性影响。”\n\n01、武汉的“凭票买房”，到底是什么？\n在网上引起热议的武汉“凭房票买房”的政策，到底规定了哪些内容呢？\n7月28日，为坚持“房住不炒”定位，进一步加强武汉市购房资格管理工作，武汉市房管局发布《市住房保障房管局关于加强购房资格管理工作的通知（征求意见稿）》，并公开征求意见。\n\n根据意见稿，在购房资格申请上，符合限购区域购买住房的意向购房人可通过官方平台或者通过开发商和中介机构申请购房资格。\n各区房管部门在申请之时起48个小时内完成购房资格认定，并将认定结果反馈给申请人，购房资格认定结果自出具之日起60日内有效。\n《征求意见稿》还要求，购房登记完成后，购房资格认定结果即时锁定，锁定期间不得再次进行购房登记。开盘销售后，购房资格认定结果自动解除锁定。\n柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“武汉‘凭票买房’的相关设想目前尚处于征求意见阶段，这是为加强楼市管控、立足于购房者资格准入提出的拟意中的制度设计。”\n那么，“凭房票购房”的政策出台后，会对武汉的楼市造成哪些影响呢？\n诸葛找房数据研究中心对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“凭票买房政策，是前期政策的一个打补丁新政，也是对限购政策的补充完善，一定程度上可以遏制市场乱象，对规范房地产市场交易有着积极作用，较有力地打击了部分制造虚假热售场面的开发商，一定程度上可以抑制炒房现象。”\n中国豪宅研究院院长朱晓红对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“凭票买房与香港、韩国的住房干预有异曲同工之处。对打击炒房，控制过度消费住房产品有好处，但要防止‘以房票谋私’和‘房票买卖’，一定要确保房票给对人。”\n柏文喜也表达了类似的担忧，他表示：“房票表面上会控制需求和打击炒房，但实际上是通过压抑需求和不增加供给进行的，如果运用不当，可能反而会加剧供求矛盾，引发权力腐败、加剧各类变相炒房和地下炒房等行为。”\n02、地方政府密集出台政策，“收紧”信号明显\n实际上，武汉市对于购房资格的政策调整，可能早在2020年就已经开始了。\n去年1月，武汉实行了商品房资格核查全程网办，意向购房者可通过武汉市房管局官网申请资格并查询结果，如果通过审核，即可获取编号和二维码等审核资料信息，该资料60日内购房有效，过期需重新申请。\n可以看出，早在2020年武汉市就已搭建出“凭房票买房”的机制雏形。而此次的征求意见稿，也是对先关政策的补充和完善。\n而除了武汉外，北上广深等一线城市，嘉兴、佛山、无锡等二三线城市，以及住建部等中央部门，也都陆续发布了一系列政策来对房地产市场加强监管。\n1月5日，住建部部长王蒙徽在接受媒体采访时，重申了坚持房住不炒，落实房地产长效机制等政策原则，表示2021年房住不炒仍然作为政策主基调不改变，同时长效机制不断落实完善的信号。\n例如，上海市也在1月份明确继续实施房产税试点。同时，上海市还针对“假离婚，真购房”现象，规定：夫妻离异的，任何一方自夫妻离异之日起3年内购买商品住房的，其拥有住房套数按离异前家庭总套数计算。调整增值税征免年限。将个人对外销售住房增值税征免年限从2年提高至5年。\n3月，西安也发布限购新政，规定购房人骗取或通过“代持”方式规避限购政策的，其本人及“代持人”将列入我市购房失信人员名册，5年内不得购房\n6月，财政部、自然资源部、税务总局、人民银行联合发布通知，国有土地使用权出让收入等四项政府非税收入将划转税务部门征收，一度引起热议。\n7月23日，住建部、发改委、公安部等八部门共同发布关于持续整治规范房地产市场秩序的通知，从房地产开发、房屋买卖、住房租赁以及物业服务四个方面切入，对房地产市场秩序进行全面规范。\n7月30日，银保监会召开全系统2021年年中工作座谈会暨纪检监察工作（电视电话）座谈会。会议强调，要严格执行“三线四档”和房地产贷款集中度要求，防止银行保险资金绕道违规流入房地产市场。\n据凤凰网《风暴眼》不完全统计，从今年1月至今，各地政府和中央相关部门共发布了超过40项针对房地产市场以及其衍生服务的监管和调控政策。数量之多，密度之大，在近年来都是比较罕见的。\n柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“目前针对房地产政策的调整的原因有三个：第一是防范房地产引发的金融风险问题；第二是内循环模式下需要降低以房地产为代表的经济运行总成本；第三是提升生育意愿和保持人口可持续发展需要降低居住成本压力。”\n\n03、地产公司“风头不再” 股价大幅回撤\n政策的变化，也直接影响到了地产行业的上市公司身上。\n受益于中国房地产市场近年来的快速发展，中国也诞生了一大批巨无霸类的地产上市公司，地产企业也一度被视为“不差钱”的象征。\n万达董事长王健林、已经去世的贝壳董事长左晖等地产大亨们，都曾登上过“首富”的宝座。\n然而随着国家开始对“过热”的房地产市场进行调控，以及一系列严格的监管政策的出台，这些地产上市公司也纷纷遭遇了“船大难掉头”的难题，资金链断裂、收入下滑、股价下跌、高额负债等问题也随之而来。\n去年8月，住房城乡建设部、人民银行在北京召开重点房地产企业座谈会，明确了重点房地产企业资金监测和融资管理规则，也就是此前业内多次传闻的“三条红线”。\n据凤凰网《风暴眼》不完全统计，在港股和A股上市的40家头部地产公司中，有一半以上的公司股价在52周内距最高点回撤超过30%。\n\n事实上，就在本周一、周二的A股集体“大跳水”中，出于对房地产市场政策监管的担忧情绪，A股地产股也集体大跌，苏宁环球、西藏城投一度跌超10%。\n\n04、楼市的大变革，要来了吗\n武汉“凭房票买房”政策，也让很多人联想到了计划经济时代的“粮票”、“肉票”。那么，“凭房票购房”，是否真的意味着回到计划经济时代？是否又会引发其他城市跟进？\n\n柏文喜表示，中国告别票证时代已近三十年了，而武汉“房票”的推出触碰和勾起了了人们对计划经济年代供给不足、处处票证的时代记忆，房地产作为公众关注度最高的行业之一，尚在酝酿之中的武汉“房票”事件大概率会被推上“热搜”。\n柏文喜认为，房票本身是立足于以准入管制来压缩需求，进而改变楼市供求关系以防止楼市过热的制度设计。但是楼市调控逻辑上需要从供求两端着手，在以数量工具与价格工具限制与压抑需求的同时，还要通过增加市场供给来平衡供求关系。\n“因此，真正要平抑楼市供求关系的话，则要尽量减少和消除供求两端的各类管制措施，以价格机制引导资源和要素配置并重构供求关系，更不能恢复计划经济时代的票证。”柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示。\n\n无论是武汉市此次出台的“凭房票买房”的政策，还是今年以来各地政府出台的一系列对房地产市场的监管政策，抑或是传闻中即将出台的“房地产税”，这些是否意味着中国楼市将迎来一次大变革呢？\n诸葛找房数据研究中心对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“房地产税的出台，或将迎来房地产市场的又一次洗牌。”\n“从目前房地产政策调整来看，坚持房住不炒是我国房地产市场的主基调。在此原则之下，首先需通过政策调控抑制房价上涨过快，促进市场逐渐回归理性阶段；其次，不断完善和规范房地产市场体系，对一些炒作房价、钻政策空子的行为及时进行打击，促进房地产市场健康发展；第三，将有限的资源向刚需群体倾斜，为购房者提供一个更为稳定的房地产环境。”\n诸葛找房数据研究中心认为，随着这些政策出台，真正的刚需群体利益得到保障，购房心态也逐渐理性，对房价过快上涨起到一定的抑制作用。长期来看，一线城市房价在经过严格的政策调控后，房价将趋于平稳运行。\n柏文喜认为，如果房产税真的很快出台，确实意味着房地产市场将迎来一次大变革，但是事实上房地产税按照立法程序尚未提交审议，是不会很快出台，也没有时间表的。\n柏文喜表示，这些政策如果不是从扩大供给端入手，而是仅仅采取控制需求端准入的数量工具如房票、控制需求端的价格工具如按揭成数与利率等措施，结果可能只是扬汤止沸，甚至越调越涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890507369,"gmtCreate":1628122601351,"gmtModify":1703501532787,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890507369","repostId":"2156717176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156717176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628047054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156717176?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156717176","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncreased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156717176","content_text":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann在最近的一篇研报中表示，标普500指数已经有187天没有出现下跌5%的情况，为过去100年来最长持续时间之一；随着股票和债券越来越贵，多资产组合也变得更容易受到利率和经济增长冲击的影响。\nMueller-Glissmann首先仔细观察了近期的通胀指标，指出盈亏平衡通胀表现优于其他“顺周期”资产。通常来说，这两者在历史上一直是密切相关的；但是近期的表现显示，盈亏平衡通胀与各种历史相关性指标的差异似乎越来越大。\n首先，上周欧洲盈亏平衡通胀（EU breakeven inflation）表现优于周期股等资产（EU Cyclicals vs Defensives）。并且，实际上今年二季度以来就已经出现了这一趋势。\n不仅是欧洲，美国也是如此。去年下半年开始美国盈亏平衡通胀（US breakeves）和顺周期资产（US cyclical vs Defensives）就开始不断脱钩了。\n盈亏平衡通胀通常被用于衡量通胀预期。然而需要注意的是，盈亏平衡通胀的上升并没有反映在更重要的实际利率上。\n相反，随着盈亏平衡通胀的上升，整个期限结构的实际利率一直在下降，欧洲和美国的10年期实际利率均在近期创下了新低。\n对于上述情形，高盛警告，如此低的实际利率水平指向了市场对滞涨风险的定价，而这似乎与经济复苏有些矛盾。在高盛经济学家看来，美国经济复苏大体上处在轨道上，通胀压力最终也会缓解。\n\n 通货再膨胀的核心是债券。债券自6月以来强劲上扬，收益率曲线趋平，不仅暗示了近期经济增长放缓的风险，同时也显示了随着货币和财政支持的消失，新一周期内持续长期停滞的风险。此外，长期限债券收益率下行主要是由实际收益率推动的，而盈亏平衡通胀具有粘性——这表明对滞涨的担忧日益加剧。\n\n对于后市的走势，高盛策略师Mueller-Glissmann表示，市场可能需要一些催化剂来重新定价更高的利率，本周强劲的就业报告可能有助于明晰日后的趋势。\n此外，他还警告，股市调整的风险已经增加了。此外，过去6个月，标普500回报率和债券收益率变化之间的差距不断扩大，再加上实际利率已经非常低了，且股票估值非常高，这使得股票更易受到经济增长和利率的冲击。\n除了上述原因之外，高盛还在报告中给出了其他理由。\n比如，高盛风险偏好指标（Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator）近期重挫。从指数组成来看，增长乐观情绪（RAI PC1）仍处于压力之下。这意味着尽管往后看欧洲和美国的财报季总体强劲，但是考虑到美国财政刺激措施开始令人失望，以及新冠疫情拖累了消费，市场仍然不相信在年底和新周期会出现更多积极的增长动力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163664076,"gmtCreate":1623883600395,"gmtModify":1703822214254,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163664076","repostId":"1109204514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109204514","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109204514?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109204514","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将","content":"<p>Although near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases remain unchanged, this week's Fed meeting released a clear signal that more than one rate hike is more likely in two years, that is, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while reducing the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and discount rate remain at 0.10% and 0.25% respectively.</p><p>As in the previous eight post-meeting statements, the Fed continues to promise to use its \"all-range\" policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for longer after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Different from the last bitmap is:</p><p><ul><li>Of the 18 officials who issued expectations,<b>This time, 7 people expect to go to rate hike in 2022</b>, 3 more people than expected last time,<b>The number of people accounts for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time,<b>13 people expect to meet rate hike in 2023, accounting for more than 72%</b>, 6 more people than the last expected 2023 rate hike<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who expect rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% by then,</b>Number of<b>Accounting for more than 61%</b>, 5 more people than expected last time,<b>Five people expect the interest rate to exceed 1% by then</b>, 3 more people than expected last time, the number of<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means that,<b>If a rate hike is 25 basis points</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials this time expect the Fed to conduct at least two rate hike by the end of 2023 on the current basis</b>。</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision at 2 p.m. in the eastern United States, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the 1.50% and 1.51% marks, turning up and rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. The decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Dow falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver dived, spot gold fell again by 0.5% during the day and fell below $1,850, falling more than $10 in the short term. Bitcoin's decline narrowed and returned to above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index rose above the two barriers of 90.70 and 90.80, setting a new one-month high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dot plot: Median expectations for two Fed rate hike by the end of 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Although near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases remain unchanged, this week's Fed meeting released a clear signal that more than one rate hike is more likely in two years, that is, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while reducing the excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and discount rate remain at 0.10% and 0.25% respectively.</p><p>As in the previous eight post-meeting statements, the Fed continues to promise to use its \"all-range\" policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for longer after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Different from the last bitmap is:</p><p><ul><li>Of the 18 officials who issued expectations,<b>This time, 7 people expect to go to rate hike in 2022</b>, 3 more people than expected last time,<b>The number of people accounts for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time,<b>13 people expect to meet rate hike in 2023, accounting for more than 72%</b>, 6 more people than the last expected 2023 rate hike<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who expect rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% by then,</b>Number of<b>Accounting for more than 61%</b>, 5 more people than expected last time,<b>Five people expect the interest rate to exceed 1% by then</b>, 3 more people than expected last time, the number of<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means that,<b>If a rate hike is 25 basis points</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials this time expect the Fed to conduct at least two rate hike by the end of 2023 on the current basis</b>。</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision at 2 p.m. in the eastern United States, the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose above the 1.50% and 1.51% marks, turning up and rising nearly 2 basis points during the day. The decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Dow falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver dived, spot gold fell again by 0.5% during the day and fell below $1,850, falling more than $10 in the short term. Bitcoin's decline narrowed and returned to above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index rose above the two barriers of 90.70 and 90.80, setting a new one-month high.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109204514","content_text":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。\n和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。\n会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：\n\n在18名发布预期的官员中，本次有7人预计2022年将加息，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，人数占比将近40%。\n本次18人中有13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人。\n在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，人数占比超过61%，比上次这样预期者多5人，预计届时利率超过1%的有5人，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数占比将近30%。\n\n这意味着，若一次加息25个基点，那么，本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息。\n在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894658362,"gmtCreate":1628823772456,"gmtModify":1676529866554,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894658362","repostId":"2159698722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117972063,"gmtCreate":1623115310252,"gmtModify":1704196344259,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117972063","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117976651,"gmtCreate":1623115277973,"gmtModify":1704196343767,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117976651","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}