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2021-07-08

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Federal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology

2021-07-04

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OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?

2021-07-04

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03:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149316261","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债","content":"<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials had expected, but that the inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to recommending patience, there were significant methodological differences, especially regarding whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say officials believe they will begin tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. At 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, July 7, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of its highly anticipated June 15-16 FOMC monetary policy meeting.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve releasing unexpectedly hawkish signals at its June meeting, such as significantly raising its economic and inflation forecasts for this year and bringing forward officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors are focused on the Fed's views on the U.S. economic situation, such as inflation and employment, as mentioned in the minutes, and whether attending officials will release more clues about \"discussing when to begin tapering QE (i.e., taper).\"</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue making progress toward \"reaching the threshold for starting to taper QE,\" but the main theme of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed begun discussing tapering its bond purchases, but a consensus has not been reached, and discussions will continue in the future. For example, some officials believe that purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) can be cut relatively earlier or faster, while others explicitly oppose it.</p><p>The minutes also reiterated the Federal Reserve's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe the current upward trend in inflation is temporary and has not generally met the prerequisites for \"substantial further progress\" in initiating tightening policies.</p><p><b>The market remained largely unchanged, with the Nasdaq briefly rising and long-term US Treasury yields continuing their downward trend.</b></p><p>Following the release of the minutes, U.S. stocks remained largely unchanged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 maintaining their upward trend, while the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned positive. The 10-year US Treasury yield maintained its intraday decline of 5 basis points, while gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold held above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the minutes were released, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% in early trading and hit a new intraday high, while the Nasdaq Composite turned slightly lower after hitting a new high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term US Treasury yields continued their sharp decline in recent days. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 7.4 basis points intraday, briefly falling below 1.30% and hitting a five-month low. Before the FOMC minutes were released, it rebounded above 1.32%, narrowing the intraday decline to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Analysts say the sharp decline in long-term US Treasury yields highlights market concerns about the prospects for US economic growth. Many believe the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 poses new threats.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's consensus is \"temporary inflation,\" but there is disagreement on the future path of inflation.</b></p><p>Some analysts still question the Federal Reserve's assessment that \"inflation is only temporary.\" The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that officials at the meeting said they had expected short-term inflation to exceed 2%, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that rising oil prices had been passed on to consumer energy prices.</p><p>However, officials still acknowledged that \"the actual rise in inflation was greater than expected.\" most (most) officials believe the main reasons are broader-than-expected supply constraints in the commodity and labor markets, and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopens.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" was a consensus among officials, although some participants believed that upward price pressures would continue into next year.</b>They also noted that long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expect inflation to ease as the impact of these temporary factors dissipates, but some (several) officials noted that they expect supply chain constraints and input shortages to continue to put upward pressure on prices next year. Some (several) officials said that uncertainty remains high in the first months of economic reopening, making it impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures will last.\" some say that recent readings of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, have remained stable at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants believed that, despite an increase earlier this year, long-term inflation expectations remained largely consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. others point out that it is the growth in these indicators this year that has brought them to levels broadly consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. Of course, Federal Reserve officials do not shy away from admitting that the rise in inflation this year has been somewhat unexpected.<b>However, the meeting minutes revealed that they disagreed on the future path of inflation, which may be one of the reasons for maintaining policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, although they \"generally believe\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that their inflation forecast risks are biased upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages may last longer and could have a greater or longer-lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. several officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise.\" However, several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain, as temporary price pressures may subside faster than currently expected. Moreover, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared, and may even reinforce the process of temporary dissipation of price pressures in the future.<b>The Federal Reserve's timing and methodology for tapering are highly controversial, particularly whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be tapered proportionally and simultaneously.</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Federal Reserve's asset purchases\" and progress in adopting forward guidance on bond purchases since December of last year to achieve the committee's goals. The officials at the meeting concluded that they “generally believed” that “substantial further progress” had not yet been made to meet the thresholds for tightening policies, but they expected progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Federal Reserve currently has significant internal disagreements regarding when and how to begin tapering its bond purchases.</b>This may also be another reason why the Federal Reserve is temporarily holding rates steady in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials at the meeting, who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later,\" said that judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions for starting to slow down the pace of asset purchases\" to be met sooner than expected at previous meetings.</p><p>More specifically, given the excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some officials believe that it would be beneficial for the Federal Reserve to reduce its purchases of MBS “sooner or earlier” than to purchase U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several officials objected, arguing that the current data provides less clear signals about potential economic momentum.</p><p>several others argued that a commensurately reduced pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases would be advisable, as this approach would be entirely consistent with the FOMC's previous market communications, and that both the purchases of Treasury Bond and MBS provided easing policies by having a broader impact on financial conditions.</p><p>Overall, several officials emphasized that the FOMC should remain patient in assessing progress toward its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the trends in the labor market and inflation.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it was important to be prepared to slow down the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the committee's objectives faster than expected or risks that could hinder their achievement. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue assessing the economy's progress toward achieving the committee's objectives and to begin discussing plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.\" Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as soon as possible before announcing a reduction in the pace of bond purchases.<b>The Federal Reserve emphasized that the pandemic has increased outlook uncertainty and supports the establishment of a variety of standing repurchase tools.</b></p><p>In assessing the current economic situation and outlook, officials acknowledged that U.S. economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened thanks to vaccination progress and strong policy support, that sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved, that overall financial conditions remain accommodative, and that soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue to advance, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few people mentioned that achieving the economic conditions outlined in the Federal Funds rate outlook guidance would be slightly earlier than they predicted in March.</p><p>However, many officials pointed out that the economy is still “far from achieving its broad and inclusive maximum employment goal,” and some officials said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they expected. A number of people point out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across different ethnic groups, income groups, and industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some people emphasize that low interest rates are leading to rising housing prices, while high valuation pressures in the real estate market may pose risks to financial stability.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at the June meeting “generally believed” that supply disruptions and labor shortages would constrain U.S. economic expansion this year. They also generally believed that the direction of the economy would largely depend on the course of the virus, and that risks to the economic outlook remained. Therefore, the June meeting held unchanged on major monetary policies such as interest rates and bond purchases, awaiting further data to revise officials' judgments.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting pointed out that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and may be uneven across industries. some believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing the committee's progress toward its goals, and that the speed at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. Therefore, officials believe that uncertainty surrounding their economic forecasts has increased.\" Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline toward the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They believe that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for promoting maximum employment, achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over a period of time, and maintaining a stable inflation expectation of 2% in the long term. several emphasized that with rising uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labor market and inflation path. In their view, this increased uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty regarding the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed the recent trends in the short-term financing market.<b>They generally support setting up a standing repurchase facility (SRF) within the United States and transforming temporary repurchase agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a standing mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these tools will play a supporting role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth operation of the market, and the specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>Regarding monetary policy implementation, officials acknowledged that money market interest rates faced downward pressure during the two FOMC meetings, and that these rates are likely to decline further in the near future. Therefore, they support adjusting the Federal Reserve's management interest rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within its target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each in an effort to curb the recent liquidity glut. The officials at the meeting \"unanimously agreed\" that this technical adjustment was unrelated to the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes reveal that officials believe bond purchases will begin to taper sooner than expected.</b></p><p>Bloomberg analysis suggests that the meeting minutes clearly indicate that many Fed officials are nervous about the inflation trend in June and believe they will begin tapering asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Comments by several officials about the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate about when and how soon rate hike will begin.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also reported that meeting minutes showed that, given stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that it may be necessary to withdraw easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized the need to be patient with the QE program, they also believed that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that the meeting minutes made virtually no contribution to the hot topic of taper in the market. The full text only reiterated that officials are \"considering starting discussions about taper,\" with almost no other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the minutes, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it must be \"fully prepared\" before reducing the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes did not clarify exactly when it would begin adjusting its bond-buying and interest rate policies, they did indicate that the Federal Reserve had begun to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income for the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustments have been put on the table, but there are serious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 03:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials had expected, but that the inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to recommending patience, there were significant methodological differences, especially regarding whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say officials believe they will begin tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. At 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, July 7, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of its highly anticipated June 15-16 FOMC monetary policy meeting.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve releasing unexpectedly hawkish signals at its June meeting, such as significantly raising its economic and inflation forecasts for this year and bringing forward officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors are focused on the Fed's views on the U.S. economic situation, such as inflation and employment, as mentioned in the minutes, and whether attending officials will release more clues about \"discussing when to begin tapering QE (i.e., taper).\"</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue making progress toward \"reaching the threshold for starting to taper QE,\" but the main theme of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed begun discussing tapering its bond purchases, but a consensus has not been reached, and discussions will continue in the future. For example, some officials believe that purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) can be cut relatively earlier or faster, while others explicitly oppose it.</p><p>The minutes also reiterated the Federal Reserve's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe the current upward trend in inflation is temporary and has not generally met the prerequisites for \"substantial further progress\" in initiating tightening policies.</p><p><b>The market remained largely unchanged, with the Nasdaq briefly rising and long-term US Treasury yields continuing their downward trend.</b></p><p>Following the release of the minutes, U.S. stocks remained largely unchanged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 maintaining their upward trend, while the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned positive. The 10-year US Treasury yield maintained its intraday decline of 5 basis points, while gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold held above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the minutes were released, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% in early trading and hit a new intraday high, while the Nasdaq Composite turned slightly lower after hitting a new high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term US Treasury yields continued their sharp decline in recent days. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 7.4 basis points intraday, briefly falling below 1.30% and hitting a five-month low. Before the FOMC minutes were released, it rebounded above 1.32%, narrowing the intraday decline to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Analysts say the sharp decline in long-term US Treasury yields highlights market concerns about the prospects for US economic growth. Many believe the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 poses new threats.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's consensus is \"temporary inflation,\" but there is disagreement on the future path of inflation.</b></p><p>Some analysts still question the Federal Reserve's assessment that \"inflation is only temporary.\" The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that officials at the meeting said they had expected short-term inflation to exceed 2%, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that rising oil prices had been passed on to consumer energy prices.</p><p>However, officials still acknowledged that \"the actual rise in inflation was greater than expected.\" most (most) officials believe the main reasons are broader-than-expected supply constraints in the commodity and labor markets, and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopens.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" was a consensus among officials, although some participants believed that upward price pressures would continue into next year.</b>They also noted that long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expect inflation to ease as the impact of these temporary factors dissipates, but some (several) officials noted that they expect supply chain constraints and input shortages to continue to put upward pressure on prices next year. Some (several) officials said that uncertainty remains high in the first months of economic reopening, making it impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures will last.\" some say that recent readings of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, have remained stable at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants believed that, despite an increase earlier this year, long-term inflation expectations remained largely consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. others point out that it is the growth in these indicators this year that has brought them to levels broadly consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. Of course, Federal Reserve officials do not shy away from admitting that the rise in inflation this year has been somewhat unexpected.<b>However, the meeting minutes revealed that they disagreed on the future path of inflation, which may be one of the reasons for maintaining policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, although they \"generally believe\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that their inflation forecast risks are biased upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages may last longer and could have a greater or longer-lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. several officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise.\" However, several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain, as temporary price pressures may subside faster than currently expected. Moreover, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared, and may even reinforce the process of temporary dissipation of price pressures in the future.<b>The Federal Reserve's timing and methodology for tapering are highly controversial, particularly whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be tapered proportionally and simultaneously.</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Federal Reserve's asset purchases\" and progress in adopting forward guidance on bond purchases since December of last year to achieve the committee's goals. The officials at the meeting concluded that they “generally believed” that “substantial further progress” had not yet been made to meet the thresholds for tightening policies, but they expected progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Federal Reserve currently has significant internal disagreements regarding when and how to begin tapering its bond purchases.</b>This may also be another reason why the Federal Reserve is temporarily holding rates steady in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials at the meeting, who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later,\" said that judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions for starting to slow down the pace of asset purchases\" to be met sooner than expected at previous meetings.</p><p>More specifically, given the excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some officials believe that it would be beneficial for the Federal Reserve to reduce its purchases of MBS “sooner or earlier” than to purchase U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several officials objected, arguing that the current data provides less clear signals about potential economic momentum.</p><p>several others argued that a commensurately reduced pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases would be advisable, as this approach would be entirely consistent with the FOMC's previous market communications, and that both the purchases of Treasury Bond and MBS provided easing policies by having a broader impact on financial conditions.</p><p>Overall, several officials emphasized that the FOMC should remain patient in assessing progress toward its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the trends in the labor market and inflation.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it was important to be prepared to slow down the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the committee's objectives faster than expected or risks that could hinder their achievement. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue assessing the economy's progress toward achieving the committee's objectives and to begin discussing plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.\" Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as soon as possible before announcing a reduction in the pace of bond purchases.<b>The Federal Reserve emphasized that the pandemic has increased outlook uncertainty and supports the establishment of a variety of standing repurchase tools.</b></p><p>In assessing the current economic situation and outlook, officials acknowledged that U.S. economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened thanks to vaccination progress and strong policy support, that sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved, that overall financial conditions remain accommodative, and that soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue to advance, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few people mentioned that achieving the economic conditions outlined in the Federal Funds rate outlook guidance would be slightly earlier than they predicted in March.</p><p>However, many officials pointed out that the economy is still “far from achieving its broad and inclusive maximum employment goal,” and some officials said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they expected. A number of people point out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across different ethnic groups, income groups, and industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some people emphasize that low interest rates are leading to rising housing prices, while high valuation pressures in the real estate market may pose risks to financial stability.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at the June meeting “generally believed” that supply disruptions and labor shortages would constrain U.S. economic expansion this year. They also generally believed that the direction of the economy would largely depend on the course of the virus, and that risks to the economic outlook remained. Therefore, the June meeting held unchanged on major monetary policies such as interest rates and bond purchases, awaiting further data to revise officials' judgments.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting pointed out that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and may be uneven across industries. some believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing the committee's progress toward its goals, and that the speed at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. Therefore, officials believe that uncertainty surrounding their economic forecasts has increased.\" Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline toward the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They believe that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for promoting maximum employment, achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over a period of time, and maintaining a stable inflation expectation of 2% in the long term. several emphasized that with rising uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labor market and inflation path. In their view, this increased uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty regarding the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed the recent trends in the short-term financing market.<b>They generally support setting up a standing repurchase facility (SRF) within the United States and transforming temporary repurchase agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a standing mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these tools will play a supporting role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth operation of the market, and the specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>Regarding monetary policy implementation, officials acknowledged that money market interest rates faced downward pressure during the two FOMC meetings, and that these rates are likely to decline further in the near future. Therefore, they support adjusting the Federal Reserve's management interest rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within its target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each in an effort to curb the recent liquidity glut. The officials at the meeting \"unanimously agreed\" that this technical adjustment was unrelated to the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes reveal that officials believe bond purchases will begin to taper sooner than expected.</b></p><p>Bloomberg analysis suggests that the meeting minutes clearly indicate that many Fed officials are nervous about the inflation trend in June and believe they will begin tapering asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Comments by several officials about the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate about when and how soon rate hike will begin.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also reported that meeting minutes showed that, given stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that it may be necessary to withdraw easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized the need to be patient with the QE program, they also believed that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that the meeting minutes made virtually no contribution to the hot topic of taper in the market. The full text only reiterated that officials are \"considering starting discussions about taper,\" with almost no other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the minutes, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it must be \"fully prepared\" before reducing the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes did not clarify exactly when it would begin adjusting its bond-buying and interest rate policies, they did indicate that the Federal Reserve had begun to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income for the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustments have been put on the table, but there are serious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149316261","content_text":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模。\n\n7月7日美东周三下午2点，美联储发布了备受关注的6月15日至16日FOMC货币政策会议完整纪要。\n由于美联储在6月会上释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，例如大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，以及将官员们的加息预测提前至2023年，因此，投资者关注纪要中提到的美联储对美国通胀和就业等经济形势看法，以及与会官员们是否会围绕“讨论何时开始减码QE（即taper）”释放更多线索。\n纪要显示，货币政策制定者们预计将继续在“达到开始减码QE的门槛”上取得进展，但会议的主基调仍是在收紧货币政策方面需要保持耐心。\n美联储确实已经开始讨论缩减购债（taper）的事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。例如，一些官员认为对抵押贷款债券（MBS）的购买可以相对更早或更快削减，另一些人则明确表示反对。\n同时，纪要还重申了美联储今年以来的观点，即尽管通胀上升速度快于官员们预期，他们仍认为当前的通胀上行趋势是暂时的，总体上没有达到启动紧缩政策的“实质性进一步进展”前提。\n市场变动不大，纳指短暂转涨，长端美债收益率保持跌势\n纪要发布后，美股变动不大，道指和标普500指数保持涨势，纳指止跌转涨。10年期美债收益率维持日内5个基点的跌幅，金银小幅上涨，现货黄金站稳1800美元关口上方。\n\n在纪要发布前，道指和标普500指数温和上涨，标普大盘盘初曾涨0.3%并创盘中历史新高，纳指则在开盘不久创新高后小幅转跌。\n长端美债收益率延续近日来的深度跌幅。10年期基准美债收益率日内最深下行7.4个基点，一度跌破1.30%并创五个月最低，FOMC纪要发布前重回1.32%上方，日内降幅收窄至4.5个基点。\n\n分析称，长端美债收益率大幅走低，凸显出市场对美国经济增长前景的担忧，不少人认为复苏可能已经触顶，以及高传染性的新冠Delta变异毒株带来崭新隐患。\n美联储共识是“通胀暂时论”，但对未来通胀路径莫衷一是\n仍有分析师质疑美联储对“通胀只是暂时”的判断。6月FOMC会议纪要显示，与会官员们表示，他们已经预计到了短期通胀将超过2%，部分原因是疫情初期价格下跌的基数效应，以及油价上涨已传递到消费者能源价格。\n不过，官员们还是承认，“通胀的实际升幅大于预期”。大多数（most）官员认为主因是商品和劳动力市场的供应限制比预期更广泛，以及随着经济重新开放，消费者的需求激增超出预期。\n纪要强调了“通胀是暂时的”为官员间共识，尽管不乏有与会者认为价格上行压力会持续到明年。他们还格外指出，长期通胀预期仍保持与FOMC的长期通胀目标一致：\n\n “展望未来，与会者普遍预期通胀会随着这些暂时性因素的影响消散而缓解，但一些（several）官员指出，他们预计供应链限制和投入品短缺将在明年也对价格构成上行压力。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员称，在经济重新开放的最初几个月，不确定性仍然很高，无法准确评估通胀压力持续多久。几人（some）称，剔除波动成分的通胀指标近期读数一直稳定在2%或略低水平。\n\n\n 多位（a number of）与会者认为，尽管今年早期有所增加，长期通胀预期指标仍保持在与委员会的长期通胀目标基本一致范围内。其他人（others）指出，正是今年上述指标的增长使其达到了与委员会长期通胀目标大体一致的水平。”\n\n当然，美联储官员们并不讳言今年通胀上行的幅度有些令人意外。不过，会议纪要透露出他们对通胀未来的路径莫衷一是，这可能是暂时保持政策耐心的原因之一。\n例如，尽管他们“普遍认为”美国经济前景面临的风险大致平衡，但绝大多数（a substantial majority of）与会者认为，他们的通胀预测风险偏向上行：\n\n “这是因为他们担心供应中断和劳动力短缺可能会持续更长时间，并可能导致对价格和工资的影响比他们目前假设的更大或更持久。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员担心，如果通胀读数持续升高，长期通胀预期可能会升至不适当的水平。\n\n\n 但其他几位（several other）官员警告称，通胀的下行风险仍然存在，因为暂时的价格压力可能会比目前预期得更快消退。而且，之前经济扩张期间压低通胀及其预期的力量并未消失，甚至可能会强化未来暂时价格压力消散的过程。”\n\n美联储对何时taper及方法论争议很大，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减\n纪要显示，6月FOMC会议“讨论了美联储的资产购买”，以及自去年12月来采纳买债前瞻指引以实现委员会目标的进展。与会官员的结论是，他们“普遍认为”尚未取得满足收紧政策门槛的“实质性进一步进展”，但他们预计将继续取得进展。\n值得注意的是，纪要透露出，美联储目前对何时可以开始缩减购债（taper），以及该如何开始taper存在很大内部分歧，这可能也是美联储在经济和通胀数据面前暂时按兵不动的另一个原因。\n支持“宜早不宜迟”减少购债的多位（various）与会官员称，从数据来判断，他们预计“达到开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件”将比之前会议上的预期更早一些。\n更具体来说，鉴于房地产市场的过高估值压力，一些（several）官员认为，相比于购买美国国债，美联储“更快或更早地”减少购买MBS是有益的。\n然而，几位（some）官员反对称，当前数据提供关于潜在经济势头的信号不太明确。\n另有多人（several other）称，按照比例同步（commensurately）降低国债和MBS 购买步伐才是可取的，因为这种方法将与FOMC之前的市场沟通完全一致，而且购买国债和MBS都通过更广泛地影响金融状况来提供了宽松政策。\n总体来说，几位（several）官员强调，FOMC在评估实现其目标的进展和宣布资产购买计划变更时应保持耐心，未来几个月的信息将更好评估劳动力市场和通胀的走势：\n\n “与会官员普遍认为，作为审慎规划的一部分，重要的是要做好准备以在适当情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期，或出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险。\n\n\n 在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现委员会目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。参与者重申将在发布减少购债速度的公告之前尽早向市场发出通知。”\n\n美联储强调疫情导致前景不确定性升高，支持设置多种常备回购工具\n在评价当前经济状况和前景时，与会官员们承认，在疫苗接种进展和强有力的政策支持下，美国经济活动和就业指标有所增强，受疫情影响最严重的行业仍然疲软但已出现改善，整体金融状况依旧宽松，消费者支出飙升促使他们上调了对今年实际GDP的增长预测。\n他们预计劳动力市场状况将继续改善，随着疫苗接种继续推进、社交距离政策逐步放松、更多学校重新开学，以及扩大的失业救济到期，劳动力短缺情况将在整个夏季和秋季缓解。一些人（a few）提到，达成联邦基金利率前瞻指引中规定的经济状况将比他们在3月的预测稍早一些。\n但许多（many）官员指出，经济仍“远未实现广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标”，一些（some）官员称，虽然近期就业增长强劲，但弱于他们的预期。几人（a number of）指出，劳动力市场复苏在不同族裔、收入群体以及跨行业之间仍然不平衡。\n同时，一些（several）人强调，低利率正在导致房价上涨，而房地产市场的高估值压力可能会带来金融稳定风险。\n整体来说，官员们在6月会议上“普遍认为” 供应中断和劳动力短缺将制约今年美国经济扩张，他们还普遍认为，经济走向将在很大程度上取决于病毒的进程，经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。因此，6月会议在利率和买债等主要货币政策上按兵不动，等待未来更多数据修正官员的判断：\n\n “与会官员指出，重新开放经济的过程史无前例，各行业之间可能不平衡。一些人（some）认为，供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，并且这些因素消散的速度不确定。因此，官员认为围绕他们经济预测的不确定性有所增加。\n\n\n 尽管通胀升幅超过预期，但主要被视为反映了暂时因素，与会官员们预计通胀将朝着FOMC委员会2%的长期目标下降。他们认为，当前的货币政策和前瞻指引仍然适合促进最大就业、实现一段时间内平均2%的通胀率，以及长期稳定在2%的通胀预期。\n\n\n 几人（several）强调，围绕经济前景的不确定性升高，现在就劳动力市场和通胀路径得出确切结论还为时过早。在他们看来，经济发展的这种不确定性加剧，也意味着联邦基金利率的适当路径存在重大不确定性。 ”\n\n同时，官员们还讨论了短期融资市场的近期走势，他们普遍支持设置美国国内的常备回购便利工具（SRF），并将疫情期间针对海外和国际货币机构的临时回购协议转变为常备机制。他们普遍希望这些工具在促进货币政策的有效实施，以及确保市场平稳运行方面发挥支持作用，具体设计方案会继续讨论。\n而在货币政策执行方面，官员们承认在两次FOMC会议期间，货币市场利率面临下行压力，近期内这些利率进一步下行的可能性较大。因此他们支持对美联储管理利率作出调整，以帮助联邦基金利率保持在目标范围内。\n美联储在6月上调了作为基准利率走廊上限的超额准备金利率（IOER），和作为走廊下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）各5个基点，以打压近期流动性过剩局面。与会官员们“一致认为”，此次技术性调整，与联邦基金利率的适当路径或美联储的货币政策立场无关。\n分析：纪要透露，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模\n彭博分析称，会议纪要非常清楚地表明，不少联储官员对6月的通胀走势感到紧张，他们也认为会比此前预期更早地开始缩减资产购买规模。几位官员对低利率与房地产市场过热之间的关系评论，可能意味着这一点会越来越多在何时以及多快开始加息的辩论中发挥作用。\n华尔街日报也称，会议纪要显示，鉴于今年经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们承认，可能需要比预期更早地撤回对经济的宽松政策支持。尽管他们强调要对QE计划保持耐心，但也认为债券购买应该提前结束。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，本次会议纪要对taper这一市场热门话题基本没有贡献，全文只是重申官员们正在“考虑开始讨论taper”（Talking about talking about tapering），几乎没有其他进展。\n路透社注意到，纪要文本中，美联储提到在削减购债速度之前必须“做好充分准备”。尽管纪要没有澄清究竟何时会开始调整购债和利率政策，但确实显示出美联储开始认真讨论此事。贝莱德美洲固收主管Bob Miller称，货币政策调整已经被摆上台面，但美联储存在严重内部分歧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155196936,"gmtCreate":1625384062925,"gmtModify":1703741124484,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155196936","repostId":"2148804970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC+ suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday due to the ongoing deadlock.</p><p>OPEC+ had previously reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, with a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the overall OPEC+ agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE changed its mind at the last minute, demanding an increase in the crude oil baseline it used to cut production, with the new change allowing it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal forced OPEC+ to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that the UAE does not oppose increased production, but hopes the new agreement will recognize a higher production benchmark against which it began its production cuts.</p><p>The UAE stated that it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of goodwill, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger,\" and that the UAE would suffer even greater losses if the production cut agreement could not be completed as planned in April 2022. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day.<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production cut, meaning the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own pace.</b></p><p>The UAE has long had ambitious production increase plans and has invested billions of dollars to increase capacity. The OPEC+ production cut agreement has left about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, among others, have demanded and raised their production benchmarks since the production cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. At the end of last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that, in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks would cause market chaos and \"invalidate the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market,\" which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed the request.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market was generally welcoming of the initial OPEC+ agreement. The market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and OPEC+'s current production increase plan will not disrupt inventories.</p><p>Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, the crude oil market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the UAE's requirements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to have been opened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC+ countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Given the current lack of progress in the US-Iran nuclear deal, the decision to extend the OPEC+ agreement to 2022 will boost crude oil prices.</p><p>However, Croft warned that a breakdown in negotiations would reverse the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil-producing countries of OPEC+, also have some disagreements.</p><p>In preparation for this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging rival U.S. shale oil production growth. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, arguing that the coronavirus and its variants bring great uncertainty and that there should be no rush to increase production significantly before there is evidence of a real recovery in demand.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase, coupled with Russia's eagerness to reach a production increase agreement, could lead to the complete collapse of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. At that time, all countries would be able to increase production at will, and OPEC+ would enter an era where everyone would go their own way.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC+ suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday due to the ongoing deadlock.</p><p>OPEC+ had previously reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, with a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the overall OPEC+ agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE changed its mind at the last minute, demanding an increase in the crude oil baseline it used to cut production, with the new change allowing it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal forced OPEC+ to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that the UAE does not oppose increased production, but hopes the new agreement will recognize a higher production benchmark against which it began its production cuts.</p><p>The UAE stated that it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of goodwill, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger,\" and that the UAE would suffer even greater losses if the production cut agreement could not be completed as planned in April 2022. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day.<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production cut, meaning the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own pace.</b></p><p>The UAE has long had ambitious production increase plans and has invested billions of dollars to increase capacity. The OPEC+ production cut agreement has left about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, among others, have demanded and raised their production benchmarks since the production cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. At the end of last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that, in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks would cause market chaos and \"invalidate the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market,\" which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed the request.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market was generally welcoming of the initial OPEC+ agreement. The market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and OPEC+'s current production increase plan will not disrupt inventories.</p><p>Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, the crude oil market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the UAE's requirements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to have been opened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC+ countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Given the current lack of progress in the US-Iran nuclear deal, the decision to extend the OPEC+ agreement to 2022 will boost crude oil prices.</p><p>However, Croft warned that a breakdown in negotiations would reverse the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil-producing countries of OPEC+, also have some disagreements.</p><p>In preparation for this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging rival U.S. shale oil production growth. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, arguing that the coronavirus and its variants bring great uncertainty and that there should be no rush to increase production significantly before there is evidence of a real recovery in demand.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase, coupled with Russia's eagerness to reach a production increase agreement, could lead to the complete collapse of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. At that time, all countries would be able to increase production at will, and OPEC+ would enter an era where everyone would go their own way.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155198611,"gmtCreate":1625383987033,"gmtModify":1703741123333,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088483890194020","authorIdStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155198611","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816042982,"gmtCreate":1630457637246,"gmtModify":1676530307568,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816042982","repostId":"1175658304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175658304","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"依托国际金融报平台，第一时间为您传递金融资讯，解读金融热点，评点金融趋势。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"国际金融报","id":"1074704009","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1481705d51964cf2adea5c7bc55e3092"},"pubTimestamp":1630455532,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175658304?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Can US stocks break the \"September curse\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175658304","media":"国际金融报","summary":"CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n\n\n据CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的","content":"<p><div>According to CFRA data, the S&P 500 has historically risen only 45% of the time in September, making it the month with the lowest chance of rising in 12 months. According to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, September was the worst-performing month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.56% since 1945. According to CFRA data, the S&P 500 has historically risen only 45% of the time in September, making it the month with the lowest chance of rising in 12 months. US stocks have been on a roll this year, and on August 30th local time,...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web page link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can US stocks break the \"September curse\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan US stocks break the \"September curse\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1074704009\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1481705d51964cf2adea5c7bc55e3092);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">国际金融报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 08:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to CFRA data, the S&P 500 has historically risen only 45% of the time in September, making it the month with the lowest chance of rising in 12 months. According to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, September was the worst-performing month of the year for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.56% since 1945. According to CFRA data, the S&P 500 has historically risen only 45% of the time in September, making it the month with the lowest chance of rising in 12 months. US stocks have been on a roll this year, and on August 30th local time,...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2fd1a464aca83609f7983bf74ba2d5","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175658304","content_text":"CFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n\n\n据CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall的统计，9月是标普500指数一年中表现最糟糕的月份，自1945年以来平均跌幅为0.56%。\nCFRA数据显示，历年来，标普500指数在9月只有45%的时间上涨，是12个月份中上涨几率最低的月份。\n今年以来，美股气势如虹，当地时间8月30日，标普500指数涨0.43%，报4528.79点，创下今年第53次收盘新高纪录。\n美股能否继续高歌猛进，打破“九月魔咒”？\n企业高收益支撑牛市表现\n贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder近日表示，主要企业的强劲收益和现金流意味着美股应该能够维持创纪录的高位。\n据高盛最近研究显示，预期标普500指数成分股公司2021年将追加现金支出，至2.8万亿美元，主要用于资本支出、合并或其他类型的业务投资。与此同时，截至7月，各公司已批准超过6800亿美元的股票回购，此数据仅次于2018年创下的2000年以来最高水平。\n《华尔街日报》指出，这意味着形势与去年相比有了天壤之别，去年各公司为了应对疫情的干扰，曾大幅削减支出，下调股息，还放缓了股票回购计划，同时大举借贷以增强其资产负债表。反观当下，在经济复苏的情况下，企业现金充裕，总体而言都在发布增加支出的计划。\nRieder指出，零售商强劲的财报和科技企业的利润率证明，即使股指创下历史新高，许多股票的回报率仍具有吸引力。他表示，有些股票确实太高了，但不是整个市场。\n美银证券上周的数据显示，企业回购股票规模达到3月中旬以来的最高水平，这是支撑股市的一个潜在因素。美银表示，回购企业以金融股为主，创下2010年以来的最高单周回购额。\n瑞银集团上周上调了标准普尔500指数成分股每股获利预估，称其对经济前景看好。“由于美国家庭去年积累了数万亿美元的储蓄，消费者的资产负债表达到了几十年来的最高水平。此外，就业正在复苏，最近的就业数据好于预期。因此，即使在疫情最严重的时候，消费者支出得到了政府刺激计划的补贴，持续的就业增长应该会推动消费者支出上升”。\n本周五，美国劳工部将公布8月非农业就业报告，经济学家预期新增就业人口将达75万人，相较于7月的大增94.3万人。8月失业率估计由5.4％下降至5.2％。\n或出现高达10%的回调\n尽管市场上仍充斥着乐观情绪，但上周，“股神”巴菲特青睐的市场指标飙升至205%的创纪录高点。\n所谓的“巴菲特指标”，是指美股总市值与美国GDP之比，被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否过热。巴菲特曾将这一指标形容为“任何时刻衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。达到创纪录高点表明，当前股票估值过高，崩盘可能即将来临。\n上周，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔央行年会上表示，美联储可能在今年年底前开始缩减资产购买，不过他仍认为加息的可能性还很遥远。\n鲍威尔强调，缩减资产购买的时机和速度，不会对加息时机发出直接信号。鲍威尔还援引上世纪50年代的货币政策经验教训称，如果冒然采取了遏制暂时通胀的“不合时宜的政策”，可能带来更大的伤害。\n摩根士丹利指出，随着创纪录的GDP和公司盈利增长、通胀上升以及德尔塔感染率开始下行，美联储取消货币宽松政策的压力可能增大，美联储最快有可能在9月的议息会议上宣布缩表决定。同时，从历史表现来看，9月往往是美股全年表现最疲软的月份，所以投资者需要警惕美股可能会出现高达10%的回调。\n此外，根据来自Refinitiv旗下IBES的统计数据，随着美国经济从疫情封锁中持续复苏，标普500指数成份股公司第二季度利润同比增长95%，创1994年启动统计以来的最高纪录。不过，强劲反弹的势头即将戛然而止，机构分析师预测，三季度美国企业盈利增速将大幅回落至30%。\n花旗首席股票策略师Tobias Levkovich从今年6月就预计标普500指数今年年终前会下跌至4000点左右，并预计美股的调整最快可能就在9月。他给出的四个值得市场担忧的因素包括美联储缩减购债、通胀不断上升、企业利润率压力和企业税上调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149153896,"gmtCreate":1625710634315,"gmtModify":1703746872822,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149153896","repostId":"2149316261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149316261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625687502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149316261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-08 03:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149316261","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债","content":"<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials had expected, but that the inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to recommending patience, there were significant methodological differences, especially regarding whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say officials believe they will begin tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. At 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, July 7, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of its highly anticipated June 15-16 FOMC monetary policy meeting.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve releasing unexpectedly hawkish signals at its June meeting, such as significantly raising its economic and inflation forecasts for this year and bringing forward officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors are focused on the Fed's views on the U.S. economic situation, such as inflation and employment, as mentioned in the minutes, and whether attending officials will release more clues about \"discussing when to begin tapering QE (i.e., taper).\"</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue making progress toward \"reaching the threshold for starting to taper QE,\" but the main theme of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed begun discussing tapering its bond purchases, but a consensus has not been reached, and discussions will continue in the future. For example, some officials believe that purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) can be cut relatively earlier or faster, while others explicitly oppose it.</p><p>The minutes also reiterated the Federal Reserve's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe the current upward trend in inflation is temporary and has not generally met the prerequisites for \"substantial further progress\" in initiating tightening policies.</p><p><b>The market remained largely unchanged, with the Nasdaq briefly rising and long-term US Treasury yields continuing their downward trend.</b></p><p>Following the release of the minutes, U.S. stocks remained largely unchanged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 maintaining their upward trend, while the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned positive. The 10-year US Treasury yield maintained its intraday decline of 5 basis points, while gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold held above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the minutes were released, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% in early trading and hit a new intraday high, while the Nasdaq Composite turned slightly lower after hitting a new high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term US Treasury yields continued their sharp decline in recent days. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 7.4 basis points intraday, briefly falling below 1.30% and hitting a five-month low. Before the FOMC minutes were released, it rebounded above 1.32%, narrowing the intraday decline to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Analysts say the sharp decline in long-term US Treasury yields highlights market concerns about the prospects for US economic growth. Many believe the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 poses new threats.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's consensus is \"temporary inflation,\" but there is disagreement on the future path of inflation.</b></p><p>Some analysts still question the Federal Reserve's assessment that \"inflation is only temporary.\" The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that officials at the meeting said they had expected short-term inflation to exceed 2%, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that rising oil prices had been passed on to consumer energy prices.</p><p>However, officials still acknowledged that \"the actual rise in inflation was greater than expected.\" most (most) officials believe the main reasons are broader-than-expected supply constraints in the commodity and labor markets, and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopens.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" was a consensus among officials, although some participants believed that upward price pressures would continue into next year.</b>They also noted that long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expect inflation to ease as the impact of these temporary factors dissipates, but some (several) officials noted that they expect supply chain constraints and input shortages to continue to put upward pressure on prices next year. Some (several) officials said that uncertainty remains high in the first months of economic reopening, making it impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures will last.\" some say that recent readings of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, have remained stable at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants believed that, despite an increase earlier this year, long-term inflation expectations remained largely consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. others point out that it is the growth in these indicators this year that has brought them to levels broadly consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. Of course, Federal Reserve officials do not shy away from admitting that the rise in inflation this year has been somewhat unexpected.<b>However, the meeting minutes revealed that they disagreed on the future path of inflation, which may be one of the reasons for maintaining policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, although they \"generally believe\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that their inflation forecast risks are biased upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages may last longer and could have a greater or longer-lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. several officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise.\" However, several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain, as temporary price pressures may subside faster than currently expected. Moreover, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared, and may even reinforce the process of temporary dissipation of price pressures in the future.<b>The Federal Reserve's timing and methodology for tapering are highly controversial, particularly whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be tapered proportionally and simultaneously.</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Federal Reserve's asset purchases\" and progress in adopting forward guidance on bond purchases since December of last year to achieve the committee's goals. The officials at the meeting concluded that they “generally believed” that “substantial further progress” had not yet been made to meet the thresholds for tightening policies, but they expected progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Federal Reserve currently has significant internal disagreements regarding when and how to begin tapering its bond purchases.</b>This may also be another reason why the Federal Reserve is temporarily holding rates steady in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials at the meeting, who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later,\" said that judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions for starting to slow down the pace of asset purchases\" to be met sooner than expected at previous meetings.</p><p>More specifically, given the excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some officials believe that it would be beneficial for the Federal Reserve to reduce its purchases of MBS “sooner or earlier” than to purchase U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several officials objected, arguing that the current data provides less clear signals about potential economic momentum.</p><p>several others argued that a commensurately reduced pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases would be advisable, as this approach would be entirely consistent with the FOMC's previous market communications, and that both the purchases of Treasury Bond and MBS provided easing policies by having a broader impact on financial conditions.</p><p>Overall, several officials emphasized that the FOMC should remain patient in assessing progress toward its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the trends in the labor market and inflation.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it was important to be prepared to slow down the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the committee's objectives faster than expected or risks that could hinder their achievement. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue assessing the economy's progress toward achieving the committee's objectives and to begin discussing plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.\" Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as soon as possible before announcing a reduction in the pace of bond purchases.<b>The Federal Reserve emphasized that the pandemic has increased outlook uncertainty and supports the establishment of a variety of standing repurchase tools.</b></p><p>In assessing the current economic situation and outlook, officials acknowledged that U.S. economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened thanks to vaccination progress and strong policy support, that sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved, that overall financial conditions remain accommodative, and that soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue to advance, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few people mentioned that achieving the economic conditions outlined in the Federal Funds rate outlook guidance would be slightly earlier than they predicted in March.</p><p>However, many officials pointed out that the economy is still “far from achieving its broad and inclusive maximum employment goal,” and some officials said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they expected. A number of people point out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across different ethnic groups, income groups, and industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some people emphasize that low interest rates are leading to rising housing prices, while high valuation pressures in the real estate market may pose risks to financial stability.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at the June meeting “generally believed” that supply disruptions and labor shortages would constrain U.S. economic expansion this year. They also generally believed that the direction of the economy would largely depend on the course of the virus, and that risks to the economic outlook remained. Therefore, the June meeting held unchanged on major monetary policies such as interest rates and bond purchases, awaiting further data to revise officials' judgments.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting pointed out that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and may be uneven across industries. some believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing the committee's progress toward its goals, and that the speed at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. Therefore, officials believe that uncertainty surrounding their economic forecasts has increased.\" Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline toward the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They believe that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for promoting maximum employment, achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over a period of time, and maintaining a stable inflation expectation of 2% in the long term. several emphasized that with rising uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labor market and inflation path. In their view, this increased uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty regarding the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed the recent trends in the short-term financing market.<b>They generally support setting up a standing repurchase facility (SRF) within the United States and transforming temporary repurchase agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a standing mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these tools will play a supporting role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth operation of the market, and the specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>Regarding monetary policy implementation, officials acknowledged that money market interest rates faced downward pressure during the two FOMC meetings, and that these rates are likely to decline further in the near future. Therefore, they support adjusting the Federal Reserve's management interest rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within its target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each in an effort to curb the recent liquidity glut. The officials at the meeting \"unanimously agreed\" that this technical adjustment was unrelated to the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes reveal that officials believe bond purchases will begin to taper sooner than expected.</b></p><p>Bloomberg analysis suggests that the meeting minutes clearly indicate that many Fed officials are nervous about the inflation trend in June and believe they will begin tapering asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Comments by several officials about the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate about when and how soon rate hike will begin.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also reported that meeting minutes showed that, given stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that it may be necessary to withdraw easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized the need to be patient with the QE program, they also believed that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that the meeting minutes made virtually no contribution to the hot topic of taper in the market. The full text only reiterated that officials are \"considering starting discussions about taper,\" with almost no other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the minutes, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it must be \"fully prepared\" before reducing the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes did not clarify exactly when it would begin adjusting its bond-buying and interest rate policies, they did indicate that the Federal Reserve had begun to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income for the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustments have been put on the table, but there are serious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve June FOMC Minutes: Inflation Remains the Consensus for Now, with Deep Differences in Methodology\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-08 03:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The minutes acknowledged that the economy and inflation rose more than some officials had expected, but that the inflation was temporary. The meeting discussed asset purchases, and in addition to recommending patience, there were significant methodological differences, especially regarding whether MBS and Treasury Bond could be reduced proportionally and simultaneously. Some analysts say officials believe they will begin tapering bond purchases earlier than expected. At 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, July 7, the Federal Reserve released the full minutes of its highly anticipated June 15-16 FOMC monetary policy meeting.</p><p>With the Federal Reserve releasing unexpectedly hawkish signals at its June meeting, such as significantly raising its economic and inflation forecasts for this year and bringing forward officials' rate hike forecasts to 2023, investors are focused on the Fed's views on the U.S. economic situation, such as inflation and employment, as mentioned in the minutes, and whether attending officials will release more clues about \"discussing when to begin tapering QE (i.e., taper).\"</p><p>The minutes show that monetary policymakers are expected to continue making progress toward \"reaching the threshold for starting to taper QE,\" but the main theme of the meeting remains the need to be patient in tightening monetary policy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has indeed begun discussing tapering its bond purchases, but a consensus has not been reached, and discussions will continue in the future. For example, some officials believe that purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) can be cut relatively earlier or faster, while others explicitly oppose it.</p><p>The minutes also reiterated the Federal Reserve's view this year that although inflation is rising faster than officials expected, they still believe the current upward trend in inflation is temporary and has not generally met the prerequisites for \"substantial further progress\" in initiating tightening policies.</p><p><b>The market remained largely unchanged, with the Nasdaq briefly rising and long-term US Treasury yields continuing their downward trend.</b></p><p>Following the release of the minutes, U.S. stocks remained largely unchanged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 maintaining their upward trend, while the Nasdaq stopped falling and turned positive. The 10-year US Treasury yield maintained its intraday decline of 5 basis points, while gold and silver rose slightly, and spot gold held above the $1,800 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b7f7a28c324185f3efb18df47d5ccab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"68\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the minutes were released, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose moderately. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% in early trading and hit a new intraday high, while the Nasdaq Composite turned slightly lower after hitting a new high shortly after the opening.</p><p>Long-term US Treasury yields continued their sharp decline in recent days. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 7.4 basis points intraday, briefly falling below 1.30% and hitting a five-month low. Before the FOMC minutes were released, it rebounded above 1.32%, narrowing the intraday decline to 4.5 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9152422cfe8dbfab14bb56370f95e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Analysts say the sharp decline in long-term US Treasury yields highlights market concerns about the prospects for US economic growth. Many believe the recovery may have peaked, and the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 poses new threats.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's consensus is \"temporary inflation,\" but there is disagreement on the future path of inflation.</b></p><p>Some analysts still question the Federal Reserve's assessment that \"inflation is only temporary.\" The minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that officials at the meeting said they had expected short-term inflation to exceed 2%, partly due to the base effect of falling prices early in the pandemic and the fact that rising oil prices had been passed on to consumer energy prices.</p><p>However, officials still acknowledged that \"the actual rise in inflation was greater than expected.\" most (most) officials believe the main reasons are broader-than-expected supply constraints in the commodity and labor markets, and a larger-than-expected surge in consumer demand as the economy reopens.</p><p><b>The minutes emphasized that \"inflation is temporary\" was a consensus among officials, although some participants believed that upward price pressures would continue into next year.</b>They also noted that long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target:</p><p>\"Looking ahead, participants generally expect inflation to ease as the impact of these temporary factors dissipates, but some (several) officials noted that they expect supply chain constraints and input shortages to continue to put upward pressure on prices next year. Some (several) officials said that uncertainty remains high in the first months of economic reopening, making it impossible to accurately assess how long inflationary pressures will last.\" some say that recent readings of inflation measures, which exclude volatility, have remained stable at 2% or slightly lower. A number of participants believed that, despite an increase earlier this year, long-term inflation expectations remained largely consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. others point out that it is the growth in these indicators this year that has brought them to levels broadly consistent with the committee's long-term inflation target. Of course, Federal Reserve officials do not shy away from admitting that the rise in inflation this year has been somewhat unexpected.<b>However, the meeting minutes revealed that they disagreed on the future path of inflation, which may be one of the reasons for maintaining policy patience for the time being.</b></p><p>For example, although they \"generally believe\" that the risks to the U.S. economic outlook are roughly balanced, a substantial majority of participants believe that their inflation forecast risks are biased upward:</p><p>\"This is because they are concerned that supply disruptions and labor shortages may last longer and could have a greater or longer-lasting impact on prices and wages than they currently assume. several officials are concerned that long-term inflation expectations could rise to inappropriate levels if inflation readings continue to rise.\" However, several other officials warned that downside risks to inflation remain, as temporary price pressures may subside faster than currently expected. Moreover, the forces that suppressed inflation and its expectations during previous economic expansions have not disappeared, and may even reinforce the process of temporary dissipation of price pressures in the future.<b>The Federal Reserve's timing and methodology for tapering are highly controversial, particularly whether MBS and Treasury Bond can be tapered proportionally and simultaneously.</b></p><p>The minutes show that the June FOMC meeting \"discussed the Federal Reserve's asset purchases\" and progress in adopting forward guidance on bond purchases since December of last year to achieve the committee's goals. The officials at the meeting concluded that they “generally believed” that “substantial further progress” had not yet been made to meet the thresholds for tightening policies, but they expected progress to continue.</p><p>It is worth noting that,<b>The minutes reveal that the Federal Reserve currently has significant internal disagreements regarding when and how to begin tapering its bond purchases.</b>This may also be another reason why the Federal Reserve is temporarily holding rates steady in the face of economic and inflation data.</p><p>various officials at the meeting, who supported reducing bond purchases \"sooner rather than later,\" said that judging from the data, they expected \"the conditions for starting to slow down the pace of asset purchases\" to be met sooner than expected at previous meetings.</p><p>More specifically, given the excessive valuation pressures in the housing market, some officials believe that it would be beneficial for the Federal Reserve to reduce its purchases of MBS “sooner or earlier” than to purchase U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p>However, several officials objected, arguing that the current data provides less clear signals about potential economic momentum.</p><p>several others argued that a commensurately reduced pace of Treasury Bond and MBS purchases would be advisable, as this approach would be entirely consistent with the FOMC's previous market communications, and that both the purchases of Treasury Bond and MBS provided easing policies by having a broader impact on financial conditions.</p><p>Overall, several officials emphasized that the FOMC should remain patient in assessing progress toward its goals and announcing changes to its asset purchase program, and that information in the coming months will better assess the trends in the labor market and inflation.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting generally agreed that, as part of prudent planning, it was important to be prepared to slow down the pace of asset purchases where appropriate in response to unexpected economic developments, including achieving the committee's objectives faster than expected or risks that could hinder their achievement. At the following meeting, participants agreed to continue assessing the economy's progress toward achieving the committee's objectives and to begin discussing plans to adjust the path and composition of asset purchases.\" Participants reiterated that they would notify the market as soon as possible before announcing a reduction in the pace of bond purchases.<b>The Federal Reserve emphasized that the pandemic has increased outlook uncertainty and supports the establishment of a variety of standing repurchase tools.</b></p><p>In assessing the current economic situation and outlook, officials acknowledged that U.S. economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened thanks to vaccination progress and strong policy support, that sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved, that overall financial conditions remain accommodative, and that soaring consumer spending has prompted them to raise their real GDP growth forecasts for this year.</p><p>They expect labor market conditions to continue to improve, with labor shortages easing throughout the summer and fall as vaccinations continue to advance, social distancing policies gradually ease, more schools reopen, and expanded unemployment benefits expire. A few people mentioned that achieving the economic conditions outlined in the Federal Funds rate outlook guidance would be slightly earlier than they predicted in March.</p><p>However, many officials pointed out that the economy is still “far from achieving its broad and inclusive maximum employment goal,” and some officials said that while recent job growth has been strong, it has been weaker than they expected. A number of people point out that the labor market recovery remains uneven across different ethnic groups, income groups, and industries.</p><p><b>At the same time, some people emphasize that low interest rates are leading to rising housing prices, while high valuation pressures in the real estate market may pose risks to financial stability.</b></p><p>Overall, officials at the June meeting “generally believed” that supply disruptions and labor shortages would constrain U.S. economic expansion this year. They also generally believed that the direction of the economy would largely depend on the course of the virus, and that risks to the economic outlook remained. Therefore, the June meeting held unchanged on major monetary policies such as interest rates and bond purchases, awaiting further data to revise officials' judgments.</p><p>\"Officials at the meeting pointed out that the process of reopening the economy is unprecedented and may be uneven across industries. some believe that supply chain disruptions and labor shortages complicate the task of assessing the committee's progress toward its goals, and that the speed at which these factors dissipate is uncertain. Therefore, officials believe that uncertainty surrounding their economic forecasts has increased.\" Although inflation rose more than expected, it was largely seen as reflecting temporary factors, with officials at the meeting expecting inflation to decline toward the FOMC Committee's long-term target of 2%. They believe that current monetary policy and forward guidance remain suitable for promoting maximum employment, achieving an average inflation rate of 2% over a period of time, and maintaining a stable inflation expectation of 2% in the long term. several emphasized that with rising uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the labor market and inflation path. In their view, this increased uncertainty in economic development also means that there is significant uncertainty regarding the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate. At the same time, officials also discussed the recent trends in the short-term financing market.<b>They generally support setting up a standing repurchase facility (SRF) within the United States and transforming temporary repurchase agreements for overseas and international monetary institutions during the pandemic into a standing mechanism.</b>They generally hope that these tools will play a supporting role in promoting the effective implementation of monetary policy and ensuring the smooth operation of the market, and the specific design options will continue to be discussed.</p><p>Regarding monetary policy implementation, officials acknowledged that money market interest rates faced downward pressure during the two FOMC meetings, and that these rates are likely to decline further in the near future. Therefore, they support adjusting the Federal Reserve's management interest rate to help Federal Funds rate stay within its target range.</p><p>In June, the Federal Reserve raised the excess reserve rate (IOER), the upper limit of the benchmark interest rate corridor, and the overnight reverse repo rate (ON RRP), the lower limit of the corridor, by 5 basis points each in an effort to curb the recent liquidity glut. The officials at the meeting \"unanimously agreed\" that this technical adjustment was unrelated to the appropriate path for Federal Funds rate or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.</p><p><b>Analysis: Minutes reveal that officials believe bond purchases will begin to taper sooner than expected.</b></p><p>Bloomberg analysis suggests that the meeting minutes clearly indicate that many Fed officials are nervous about the inflation trend in June and believe they will begin tapering asset purchases earlier than previously expected. Comments by several officials about the relationship between low interest rates and an overheated housing market may mean that this will increasingly play a role in the debate about when and how soon rate hike will begin.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal also reported that meeting minutes showed that, given stronger-than-expected economic growth this year, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that it may be necessary to withdraw easing policy support for the economy sooner than expected. Although they emphasized the need to be patient with the QE program, they also believed that bond purchases should end early.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that the meeting minutes made virtually no contribution to the hot topic of taper in the market. The full text only reiterated that officials are \"considering starting discussions about taper,\" with almost no other progress.</p><p>Reuters noted that in the minutes, the Federal Reserve mentioned that it must be \"fully prepared\" before reducing the pace of bond purchases. Although the minutes did not clarify exactly when it would begin adjusting its bond-buying and interest rate policies, they did indicate that the Federal Reserve had begun to seriously discuss the matter. Bob Miller, head of fixed income for the Americas at BlackRock, said that monetary policy adjustments have been put on the table, but there are serious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149316261","content_text":"纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出一些官员预期，但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买，除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模。\n\n7月7日美东周三下午2点，美联储发布了备受关注的6月15日至16日FOMC货币政策会议完整纪要。\n由于美联储在6月会上释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，例如大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，以及将官员们的加息预测提前至2023年，因此，投资者关注纪要中提到的美联储对美国通胀和就业等经济形势看法，以及与会官员们是否会围绕“讨论何时开始减码QE（即taper）”释放更多线索。\n纪要显示，货币政策制定者们预计将继续在“达到开始减码QE的门槛”上取得进展，但会议的主基调仍是在收紧货币政策方面需要保持耐心。\n美联储确实已经开始讨论缩减购债（taper）的事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。例如，一些官员认为对抵押贷款债券（MBS）的购买可以相对更早或更快削减，另一些人则明确表示反对。\n同时，纪要还重申了美联储今年以来的观点，即尽管通胀上升速度快于官员们预期，他们仍认为当前的通胀上行趋势是暂时的，总体上没有达到启动紧缩政策的“实质性进一步进展”前提。\n市场变动不大，纳指短暂转涨，长端美债收益率保持跌势\n纪要发布后，美股变动不大，道指和标普500指数保持涨势，纳指止跌转涨。10年期美债收益率维持日内5个基点的跌幅，金银小幅上涨，现货黄金站稳1800美元关口上方。\n\n在纪要发布前，道指和标普500指数温和上涨，标普大盘盘初曾涨0.3%并创盘中历史新高，纳指则在开盘不久创新高后小幅转跌。\n长端美债收益率延续近日来的深度跌幅。10年期基准美债收益率日内最深下行7.4个基点，一度跌破1.30%并创五个月最低，FOMC纪要发布前重回1.32%上方，日内降幅收窄至4.5个基点。\n\n分析称，长端美债收益率大幅走低，凸显出市场对美国经济增长前景的担忧，不少人认为复苏可能已经触顶，以及高传染性的新冠Delta变异毒株带来崭新隐患。\n美联储共识是“通胀暂时论”，但对未来通胀路径莫衷一是\n仍有分析师质疑美联储对“通胀只是暂时”的判断。6月FOMC会议纪要显示，与会官员们表示，他们已经预计到了短期通胀将超过2%，部分原因是疫情初期价格下跌的基数效应，以及油价上涨已传递到消费者能源价格。\n不过，官员们还是承认，“通胀的实际升幅大于预期”。大多数（most）官员认为主因是商品和劳动力市场的供应限制比预期更广泛，以及随着经济重新开放，消费者的需求激增超出预期。\n纪要强调了“通胀是暂时的”为官员间共识，尽管不乏有与会者认为价格上行压力会持续到明年。他们还格外指出，长期通胀预期仍保持与FOMC的长期通胀目标一致：\n\n “展望未来，与会者普遍预期通胀会随着这些暂时性因素的影响消散而缓解，但一些（several）官员指出，他们预计供应链限制和投入品短缺将在明年也对价格构成上行压力。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员称，在经济重新开放的最初几个月，不确定性仍然很高，无法准确评估通胀压力持续多久。几人（some）称，剔除波动成分的通胀指标近期读数一直稳定在2%或略低水平。\n\n\n 多位（a number of）与会者认为，尽管今年早期有所增加，长期通胀预期指标仍保持在与委员会的长期通胀目标基本一致范围内。其他人（others）指出，正是今年上述指标的增长使其达到了与委员会长期通胀目标大体一致的水平。”\n\n当然，美联储官员们并不讳言今年通胀上行的幅度有些令人意外。不过，会议纪要透露出他们对通胀未来的路径莫衷一是，这可能是暂时保持政策耐心的原因之一。\n例如，尽管他们“普遍认为”美国经济前景面临的风险大致平衡，但绝大多数（a substantial majority of）与会者认为，他们的通胀预测风险偏向上行：\n\n “这是因为他们担心供应中断和劳动力短缺可能会持续更长时间，并可能导致对价格和工资的影响比他们目前假设的更大或更持久。\n\n\n 一些（several）官员担心，如果通胀读数持续升高，长期通胀预期可能会升至不适当的水平。\n\n\n 但其他几位（several other）官员警告称，通胀的下行风险仍然存在，因为暂时的价格压力可能会比目前预期得更快消退。而且，之前经济扩张期间压低通胀及其预期的力量并未消失，甚至可能会强化未来暂时价格压力消散的过程。”\n\n美联储对何时taper及方法论争议很大，特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减\n纪要显示，6月FOMC会议“讨论了美联储的资产购买”，以及自去年12月来采纳买债前瞻指引以实现委员会目标的进展。与会官员的结论是，他们“普遍认为”尚未取得满足收紧政策门槛的“实质性进一步进展”，但他们预计将继续取得进展。\n值得注意的是，纪要透露出，美联储目前对何时可以开始缩减购债（taper），以及该如何开始taper存在很大内部分歧，这可能也是美联储在经济和通胀数据面前暂时按兵不动的另一个原因。\n支持“宜早不宜迟”减少购债的多位（various）与会官员称，从数据来判断，他们预计“达到开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件”将比之前会议上的预期更早一些。\n更具体来说，鉴于房地产市场的过高估值压力，一些（several）官员认为，相比于购买美国国债，美联储“更快或更早地”减少购买MBS是有益的。\n然而，几位（some）官员反对称，当前数据提供关于潜在经济势头的信号不太明确。\n另有多人（several other）称，按照比例同步（commensurately）降低国债和MBS 购买步伐才是可取的，因为这种方法将与FOMC之前的市场沟通完全一致，而且购买国债和MBS都通过更广泛地影响金融状况来提供了宽松政策。\n总体来说，几位（several）官员强调，FOMC在评估实现其目标的进展和宣布资产购买计划变更时应保持耐心，未来几个月的信息将更好评估劳动力市场和通胀的走势：\n\n “与会官员普遍认为，作为审慎规划的一部分，重要的是要做好准备以在适当情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期，或出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险。\n\n\n 在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现委员会目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。参与者重申将在发布减少购债速度的公告之前尽早向市场发出通知。”\n\n美联储强调疫情导致前景不确定性升高，支持设置多种常备回购工具\n在评价当前经济状况和前景时，与会官员们承认，在疫苗接种进展和强有力的政策支持下，美国经济活动和就业指标有所增强，受疫情影响最严重的行业仍然疲软但已出现改善，整体金融状况依旧宽松，消费者支出飙升促使他们上调了对今年实际GDP的增长预测。\n他们预计劳动力市场状况将继续改善，随着疫苗接种继续推进、社交距离政策逐步放松、更多学校重新开学，以及扩大的失业救济到期，劳动力短缺情况将在整个夏季和秋季缓解。一些人（a few）提到，达成联邦基金利率前瞻指引中规定的经济状况将比他们在3月的预测稍早一些。\n但许多（many）官员指出，经济仍“远未实现广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标”，一些（some）官员称，虽然近期就业增长强劲，但弱于他们的预期。几人（a number of）指出，劳动力市场复苏在不同族裔、收入群体以及跨行业之间仍然不平衡。\n同时，一些（several）人强调，低利率正在导致房价上涨，而房地产市场的高估值压力可能会带来金融稳定风险。\n整体来说，官员们在6月会议上“普遍认为” 供应中断和劳动力短缺将制约今年美国经济扩张，他们还普遍认为，经济走向将在很大程度上取决于病毒的进程，经济前景面临的风险仍然存在。因此，6月会议在利率和买债等主要货币政策上按兵不动，等待未来更多数据修正官员的判断：\n\n “与会官员指出，重新开放经济的过程史无前例，各行业之间可能不平衡。一些人（some）认为，供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，并且这些因素消散的速度不确定。因此，官员认为围绕他们经济预测的不确定性有所增加。\n\n\n 尽管通胀升幅超过预期，但主要被视为反映了暂时因素，与会官员们预计通胀将朝着FOMC委员会2%的长期目标下降。他们认为，当前的货币政策和前瞻指引仍然适合促进最大就业、实现一段时间内平均2%的通胀率，以及长期稳定在2%的通胀预期。\n\n\n 几人（several）强调，围绕经济前景的不确定性升高，现在就劳动力市场和通胀路径得出确切结论还为时过早。在他们看来，经济发展的这种不确定性加剧，也意味着联邦基金利率的适当路径存在重大不确定性。 ”\n\n同时，官员们还讨论了短期融资市场的近期走势，他们普遍支持设置美国国内的常备回购便利工具（SRF），并将疫情期间针对海外和国际货币机构的临时回购协议转变为常备机制。他们普遍希望这些工具在促进货币政策的有效实施，以及确保市场平稳运行方面发挥支持作用，具体设计方案会继续讨论。\n而在货币政策执行方面，官员们承认在两次FOMC会议期间，货币市场利率面临下行压力，近期内这些利率进一步下行的可能性较大。因此他们支持对美联储管理利率作出调整，以帮助联邦基金利率保持在目标范围内。\n美联储在6月上调了作为基准利率走廊上限的超额准备金利率（IOER），和作为走廊下限的隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）各5个基点，以打压近期流动性过剩局面。与会官员们“一致认为”，此次技术性调整，与联邦基金利率的适当路径或美联储的货币政策立场无关。\n分析：纪要透露，官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模\n彭博分析称，会议纪要非常清楚地表明，不少联储官员对6月的通胀走势感到紧张，他们也认为会比此前预期更早地开始缩减资产购买规模。几位官员对低利率与房地产市场过热之间的关系评论，可能意味着这一点会越来越多在何时以及多快开始加息的辩论中发挥作用。\n华尔街日报也称，会议纪要显示，鉴于今年经济增长强于预期，美联储官员们承认，可能需要比预期更早地撤回对经济的宽松政策支持。尽管他们强调要对QE计划保持耐心，但也认为债券购买应该提前结束。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，本次会议纪要对taper这一市场热门话题基本没有贡献，全文只是重申官员们正在“考虑开始讨论taper”（Talking about talking about tapering），几乎没有其他进展。\n路透社注意到，纪要文本中，美联储提到在削减购债速度之前必须“做好充分准备”。尽管纪要没有澄清究竟何时会开始调整购债和利率政策，但确实显示出美联储开始认真讨论此事。贝莱德美洲固收主管Bob Miller称，货币政策调整已经被摆上台面，但美联储存在严重内部分歧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098718347,"gmtCreate":1644230021619,"gmtModify":1676533901744,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098718347","repostId":"816042982","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":816042982,"gmtCreate":1630457637246,"gmtModify":1676530307568,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816042982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155196936,"gmtCreate":1625384062925,"gmtModify":1703741124484,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155196936","repostId":"2148804970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148804970","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625283118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148804970?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-03 11:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148804970","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减","content":"<p>OPEC+ suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday due to the ongoing deadlock.</p><p>OPEC+ had previously reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, with a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the overall OPEC+ agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE changed its mind at the last minute, demanding an increase in the crude oil baseline it used to cut production, with the new change allowing it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal forced OPEC+ to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that the UAE does not oppose increased production, but hopes the new agreement will recognize a higher production benchmark against which it began its production cuts.</p><p>The UAE stated that it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of goodwill, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger,\" and that the UAE would suffer even greater losses if the production cut agreement could not be completed as planned in April 2022. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day.<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production cut, meaning the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own pace.</b></p><p>The UAE has long had ambitious production increase plans and has invested billions of dollars to increase capacity. The OPEC+ production cut agreement has left about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, among others, have demanded and raised their production benchmarks since the production cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. At the end of last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that, in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks would cause market chaos and \"invalidate the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market,\" which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed the request.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market was generally welcoming of the initial OPEC+ agreement. The market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and OPEC+'s current production increase plan will not disrupt inventories.</p><p>Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, the crude oil market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the UAE's requirements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to have been opened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC+ countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Given the current lack of progress in the US-Iran nuclear deal, the decision to extend the OPEC+ agreement to 2022 will boost crude oil prices.</p><p>However, Croft warned that a breakdown in negotiations would reverse the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil-producing countries of OPEC+, also have some disagreements.</p><p>In preparation for this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging rival U.S. shale oil production growth. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, arguing that the coronavirus and its variants bring great uncertainty and that there should be no rush to increase production significantly before there is evidence of a real recovery in demand.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase, coupled with Russia's eagerness to reach a production increase agreement, could lead to the complete collapse of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. At that time, all countries would be able to increase production at will, and OPEC+ would enter an era where everyone would go their own way.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+ production increase negotiations have stalled. What does this mean for oil prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 11:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC+ suspended its meeting for the second consecutive day on Friday due to the ongoing deadlock.</p><p>OPEC+ had previously reached an agreement in principle to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month from August to December, with a cumulative increase of 2 million barrels per day by the end of the year. The agreement will also extend the overall OPEC+ agreement, extending the final deadline for production cuts to December 2022.</p><p>However, the UAE changed its mind at the last minute, demanding an increase in the crude oil baseline it used to cut production, with the new change allowing it to produce an additional 700,000 barrels per day. This dramatic reversal forced OPEC+ to postpone its plenary meeting to resolve internal disputes.</p><p><h2>What does the UAE want?</h2>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that the UAE does not oppose increased production, but hopes the new agreement will recognize a higher production benchmark against which it began its production cuts.</p><p>The UAE stated that it had previously agreed to a very low benchmark figure out of goodwill, making its production cuts \"disproportionately larger,\" and that the UAE would suffer even greater losses if the production cut agreement could not be completed as planned in April 2022. Therefore, it hopes to raise its production benchmark from the current 3.168 million barrels per day to 3.84 million barrels per day.<b>A higher benchmark means a lower actual production cut, meaning the UAE wants to increase production and accelerate its own pace.</b></p><p>The UAE has long had ambitious production increase plans and has invested billions of dollars to increase capacity. The OPEC+ production cut agreement has left about 30% of its capacity idle. The UAE believes that Azerbaijan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, among others, have demanded and raised their production benchmarks since the production cut agreement was reached last year, and their own requests should be allowed. At the end of last year, the UAE threatened to withdraw from OPEC.</p><p>Independent oil analyst Anas Alhajji explained that, in terms of data, other oil-producing countries experienced production declines between October 2018 and April 2020, and the UAE's request to adjust production benchmarks would cause market chaos and \"invalidate the goal of creating stability and clarity in the crude oil market,\" which is why Saudi Arabia and Russia strongly opposed the request.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49c7965ea606512e5231d229cb2835e4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>What impact will this have on oil prices?</h2>The market was generally welcoming of the initial OPEC+ agreement. The market generally expects crude oil demand to increase by 6 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year, and OPEC+'s current production increase plan will not disrupt inventories.</p><p>Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, the crude oil market is currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil fluctuated slightly on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc7bb49c2a2f9e3632cb5afdab829aa\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the UAE's requirements,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out,<b>Any request to adjust production quotas seems to have been opened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">Pandora</a>Magic Box, other OPEC+ countries may also request similar adjustments.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Analyst Helima Croft believes that the UAE's problems may be resolved through high-level talks between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Given the current lack of progress in the US-Iran nuclear deal, the decision to extend the OPEC+ agreement to 2022 will boost crude oil prices.</p><p>However, Croft warned that a breakdown in negotiations would reverse the current upward momentum in oil prices, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil-producing countries of OPEC+, also have some disagreements.</p><p>In preparation for this week's meeting, Russia has insisted on releasing more oil into the market as rising oil prices are encouraging rival U.S. shale oil production growth. Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production more cautiously, arguing that the coronavirus and its variants bring great uncertainty and that there should be no rush to increase production significantly before there is evidence of a real recovery in demand.</p><p>The UAE's insistence on expanding its own production increase, coupled with Russia's eagerness to reach a production increase agreement, could lead to the complete collapse of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. At that time, all countries would be able to increase production at will, and OPEC+ would enter an era where everyone would go their own way.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01e4b782ba393cb7794f7764a5d7d90","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634488","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148804970","content_text":"由于僵局持续，OPEC+周五连续第二天暂停会议。\n此前OPEC+已达成原则性协议，从8月到12月每月增加40万桶/日的产量，到年底达成累计增产200万桶/日。协议还将延长整体OPEC+协议的期限，将减产的最终期限延长至2022年12月。\n但阿联酋在最后一刻“翻脸”，要求上调该国减产时依据的原油基线，新的变动将允许其额外生产70万桶/日。这一戏剧性反转导致OPEC+不得不推迟全体会议以解决内部纠纷。\n阿联酋要什么？\n华尔街见闻此前提及，阿联酋并不反对增产，但希望新协议承认其减产开始时依据的产量基准更高。\n阿联酋称该国此前出于善意同意了一个非常低的基准数字，令其减产规模“不成比例地更大”，如果减产协议不能按计划在2022年4月结束，阿联酋的损失将更大。因此它希望将产量基准从当前的316.8万桶/日上调至384万桶/日，较高的基准意味着较低的实际减产量，即阿联酋希望自己增产提速。\n阿联酋早就制定了雄心勃勃的增产计划，并已投资数十亿美元提高产能，OPEC+减产协议使其约30%的产能闲置。阿联酋认为，阿塞拜疆、科威特、哈萨克斯坦和尼日利亚等自去年减产协议达成以来，已经要求并提高了产量基准，自己的请求也应被允许。去年底，阿联酋曾威胁退出OPEC。\n独立石油分析师 Anas Alhajji 解释称，在数据方面，其他产油国在2018年10月至2020年4月期间都经历了产量下降，阿联酋调整产量基准的要求会造成市场混乱，使“创造原油市场稳定和清晰的目标无效”，这也是沙特和俄罗斯极力反对该要求的原因。\n\n这对油价会产生什么影响？\n市场对于OPEC+的最初协议整体持欢迎态度。目前市场普遍预期原油需求较去年同期将增长600万桶/日，OPEC+目前的增产计划不会带来库存方面的扰动。\n由于谈判前景不明，目前原油市场基本持观望态度。布伦特原油及WTI原油周五均小幅震荡。\n\n对于阿联酋的要求，瑞银大宗商品分析师Giovanni Staunovo指出，任何调整生产配额的请求都像是打开了潘多拉魔盒 ，其他OPEC+国家也可能要求进行类似调整。\n加拿大皇家银行分析师Helima Croft认为，阿联酋的问题可能会通过沙特和阿联酋的高层会谈解决。考虑目前美伊核协议目前暂无进展，将OPEC+协议的期限延长至2022年的决定将对原油价格上涨起到助推作用。\n但Croft警告称，考虑到新冠疫情仍在持续，谈判破裂将颠覆油价目前的上涨势头。\nOPEC+两大产油国沙特及俄罗斯也存在一定分歧。\n在本周会议的筹备过程中，俄罗斯坚持向市场释放更多石油，因为油价上涨正鼓励竞争对手美国页岩油产量的增长。而沙特希望更谨慎增产，理由是新冠病毒及变种带来很大的不确定性，在需求切实复苏的证据出炉前不应急着大幅增产。\n阿联酋坚决要求扩大自身增产规模，以及俄罗斯迫切希望达成增产协议等多重因素，令OPEC+减产协议完全破裂也不无可能，那时所有国家都可以随心所欲地增产，OPEC+将进入各行其是的时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155198611,"gmtCreate":1625383987033,"gmtModify":1703741123333,"author":{"id":"4088483890194020","authorId":"4088483890194020","name":"yuilow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7af79272fb44775303405ebf6720a4f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088483890194020","idStr":"4088483890194020"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155198611","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}