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DavidChung
2021-08-01
Really ?
The worst season for the US stock market is coming.
DavidChung
2021-07-30
Hi
Sorry, the original content has been removed
DavidChung
2021-07-27
Good
What happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?
DavidChung
2021-07-21
Hi
SAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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?","listText":"Really ?","text":"Really ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802569832","repostId":"2155894163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155894163","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627778319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155894163?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The worst season for the US stock market is coming.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155894163","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是","content":"<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The worst season for the US stock market is coming.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe worst season for the US stock market is coming.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155894163","content_text":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一，并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前，人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%，但在强劲的上半年之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。\nRubner还指出，今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌，标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨，创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而，与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事，毕竟自2010年8月以来，此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。\n\n尽管如此，Rubner指出，即便不回顾历史，今年的状况也能得出同样的结论，美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出，市场将更加缺乏流动性，因此8月的下跌效应会加剧，任何负面消息都会被放大。\n此外，Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”，这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年：\n\n2011年，恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决，但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时，对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵，最终导致8月股市大跌。\n2015年，新兴市场出现了动荡，进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。\n\n对于接下来的8月，Rubner表示，人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议，以及宏观变量（尤其是通胀）的变化。他同时表示，我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806842872,"gmtCreate":1627651454796,"gmtModify":1703494108892,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088510584208570","idStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806842872","repostId":"1144748764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809694530,"gmtCreate":1627363515020,"gmtModify":1703488423831,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088510584208570","idStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809694530","repostId":"2154602599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154602599","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627363025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154602599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 13:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154602599","media":"格隆汇","summary":"最近在思考一个问题，外部在通胀，价格持续上涨，为什么美联储就是不承认通胀呢？一直说是暂时的，而且，最近一直关注劳动力市场，也一直在推迟政策转向找各种理由，所说的进一步迹象也没有答案。最近看了几本书，《","content":"<p>I've been thinking about a question lately: with inflation and rising prices, why doesn't the Federal Reserve acknowledge inflation? They have always said it is temporary, and they have been paying close attention to the labor market recently, and they have been postponing policy changes and finding various reasons. There is no answer to the further signs they have mentioned. I've recently read several books, including \"Return on Capital,\" \"Principles of Money and Credit,\" and \"Human Behavior,\" which have given me some inspiration, so I'm writing them down.</p><p>Economic crises, like cycles, are basically inevitable and repeat themselves constantly within cycles. The U.S. government did not effectively predict the crisis or adopt effective policies to identify it.</p><p>What is the reason for this?</p><p>The economic prosperity brought about by credit expansion will eventually collapse, according to the Austrian School of Economics. If a debt crisis can be avoided, the only solution is to abandon debt expansion or use monetary policy stimulus to delay the crisis and eventually lead to a larger crisis.</p><p>The Great Depression eventually confirmed this view.</p><p>Economic stimulus and declining interest rates create a significant valuation premium for assets with good liquidity; this is a simplified logic.</p><p>Therefore, the spread between 10-year and 1-year US Treasury yields can provide a clear indication of the accuracy of the economic crisis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/402b576b3c1c9b3ba8531861c0fc5afe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why didn't the central bank, which clearly knew the outcome, take precautions? Based on academic arguments and practical operations, the central bank has the capability, but we may not have seen any changes made by the central bank. Before the economic crisis of 1929, Hoover also kept saying that the economy was fine. Similar remarks were made even before 1990, before the Great Recession in Japan.</p><p>In 2008, after further credit expansion stimulated the economy, U.S. debt actually grew faster. Why would the central bank do this?</p><p>Considering the enormous destructive power that market sentiment can generate after asset prices resonate. If the central bank objectively states the facts and risks, the resulting asset price fluctuations may be something the government is unwilling to bear. It also concerns one's own future, a point that applies to any country. The market is more willing to listen to positive opinions. This aligns with investors' expectations; that's human nature. Even if the probability of maintaining the price is extremely low, it will be carried out without hesitation.</p><p>So, is the market rational? Not necessarily. So-called rationality must be based on certain information, and even artificially created certain information is acceptable.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve says inflation is long-term and the government needs to tighten, how should this record-high index be adjusted? From a global perspective, it might not be a better option. If central banks demonstrate certain confidence in this economic uncertainty, then the market will inevitably be more welcoming. Therefore, this reverse incentive will encourage officials to make statements that contradict the facts.</p><p>Contemporary economists discuss economic issues using a great deal of mathematics and formulas, and using numbers to prove facts without question.</p><p>Judging from past academic arguments, the central bank's predictions of crises have never been correct. In order to compete with them, the central bank will inevitably introduce theories to demonstrate that its judgment is correct. Or it could align with policy logic. For example, further signs, such as market factors in labor-intensive countries. To support the logic of the policy.</p><p>These tools also include models, mathematics, authority figures, scenario analysis, and stress testing. However, the same calculations yielded the opposite conclusion. So who is right?</p><p>The central bank itself may consider these proofs to be scientific.</p><p>The Austrian School of Economics also holds another view:</p><p>When injecting liquidity into the economy, it first causes inflation on the asset side. In the initial stage of inflation, the prices of consumer goods may fall because funds will concentrate into certain assets, causing prices to rise and then withdraw. At this point, inflation is not noticeable. Consumer goods did not rise, but industrial goods rose, as did real estate, stocks, and bonds.</p><p>As prices rise, some price troughs will gradually be filled. This will then cause consumer goods prices to rise.</p><p>When consumer prices are rising, it may cause other asset prices to correct. If the central bank hadn't noticed the asset bubbles created by these invisible inflations, concentrated in the market, after injecting liquidity, it was very likely that real interest rates would be lower than natural interest rates. By the time the central bank reacted to consumer goods, it was too late.</p><p>Can the central bank see this? I think it's obvious that the central bank's reaction to inflation was too late, possibly based on discussions about policy pros and cons and a period of hesitation.</p><p>Returning to the present, US inflation exceeded expectations in June, reaching a 13-year high. Inflation expectations continue to strengthen, with core CPI hitting a 20-year high and PPI reaching 7.3%, but the Federal Reserve still believes this is only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97940456ed81feecba7a8676f5e7010c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why is that?</p><p>Central banks, as global policymakers, guide global expectations, and consistent expectations will drive asset prices higher and higher. With asset prices constantly reaching new highs, their vulnerability is increasing, and the slightest disturbance can cause volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a04217e1d9fdb32c05a8656f397171a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In this situation, if a few people turn around and short, it could lead to a price reversal. If the bulls follow suit, the final result would be the bursting of the bubble and trigger a crisis.</p><p>Of course, the larger the asset price bubble inflated in the early stages, the greater the pullback and the greater the damage involved. Let's look at the current prices of major assets:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38acee39105389299807c86e25bc7edc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>House price:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bacce7fe96d81af007de1abfc7169e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Commodities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a7e99789ee50296f251f90fe50a9ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At this point, if policy suddenly shifts, meaning it begins to tighten, then these asset prices could explode.</p><p>Therefore, if we tighten things now, then we're basically finished.</p><p>Without tightening, asset prices would continue to reach new highs. Without significant reforms in production relations, economic efficiency would remain low, and asset prices would continue to rise. Once they reach a certain level, price troughs in consumer goods would be discovered, leading to the sale of overvalued assets and the purchase of low-priced consumer goods. Such overvalued assets will also have their prices collapse.</p><p>Therefore, faced with a dilemma, monetary policy has no choice but to hold on. To maintain the fragile balance of the economy by disrupting expectations.</p><p>When Powell spoke, the market's first question was that inflation had exceeded expectations, but he did not respond. Ye Nai had previously mentioned the risks of high inflation, but later changed her tune, saying it was temporary.</p><p>They expressed their expectations for the economy in obscure and difficult-to-understand language, such as the anchoring effect of inflation and supply-side constraints.</p><p>In short, there is no rush to change the policy.</p><p>Therefore, after interest rates rose in the first quarter, they began to decline continuously and are now maintaining a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5197b8bce798425385d994ae4576f787\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>All inflation is a money phenomenon.</p><p>We need to control inflation while maintaining asset prices. Therefore, when prices rise to a certain level, they will fall. Capital is inherently profit-driven; if asset prices appreciate less, capital will move elsewhere.</p><p>Currently, insufficient demand may curb inflation, but has the fundamentals been considered in the rise of the US stock market in recent years? They didn't consider actual demand, and the rise in housing prices is also a result of excessive money supply.</p><p>If monetary policy shifts now, will demand be stimulated? That's even more ridiculous. Therefore, as long as assets stagnate, the excess money supply will push up prices. Because having a lot of money is the most fundamental reason.</p><p>Moreover, this wave of high prices cannot be sustained, and the United States will inevitably have to withdraw liquidity, ultimately leading to the bursting of the bubble. As global central banks, other countries cannot remain unaffected.</p><p>Printing money is unsustainable. So the rhetoric we're using now is just to stabilize expectations.</p><p>Currently, only a small issue is displayed; that's just the tip of the iceberg.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I've been thinking about a question lately: with inflation and rising prices, why doesn't the Federal Reserve acknowledge inflation? They have always said it is temporary, and they have been paying close attention to the labor market recently, and they have been postponing policy changes and finding various reasons. There is no answer to the further signs they have mentioned. I've recently read several books, including \"Return on Capital,\" \"Principles of Money and Credit,\" and \"Human Behavior,\" which have given me some inspiration, so I'm writing them down.</p><p>Economic crises, like cycles, are basically inevitable and repeat themselves constantly within cycles. The U.S. government did not effectively predict the crisis or adopt effective policies to identify it.</p><p>What is the reason for this?</p><p>The economic prosperity brought about by credit expansion will eventually collapse, according to the Austrian School of Economics. If a debt crisis can be avoided, the only solution is to abandon debt expansion or use monetary policy stimulus to delay the crisis and eventually lead to a larger crisis.</p><p>The Great Depression eventually confirmed this view.</p><p>Economic stimulus and declining interest rates create a significant valuation premium for assets with good liquidity; this is a simplified logic.</p><p>Therefore, the spread between 10-year and 1-year US Treasury yields can provide a clear indication of the accuracy of the economic crisis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/402b576b3c1c9b3ba8531861c0fc5afe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why didn't the central bank, which clearly knew the outcome, take precautions? Based on academic arguments and practical operations, the central bank has the capability, but we may not have seen any changes made by the central bank. Before the economic crisis of 1929, Hoover also kept saying that the economy was fine. Similar remarks were made even before 1990, before the Great Recession in Japan.</p><p>In 2008, after further credit expansion stimulated the economy, U.S. debt actually grew faster. Why would the central bank do this?</p><p>Considering the enormous destructive power that market sentiment can generate after asset prices resonate. If the central bank objectively states the facts and risks, the resulting asset price fluctuations may be something the government is unwilling to bear. It also concerns one's own future, a point that applies to any country. The market is more willing to listen to positive opinions. This aligns with investors' expectations; that's human nature. Even if the probability of maintaining the price is extremely low, it will be carried out without hesitation.</p><p>So, is the market rational? Not necessarily. So-called rationality must be based on certain information, and even artificially created certain information is acceptable.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve says inflation is long-term and the government needs to tighten, how should this record-high index be adjusted? From a global perspective, it might not be a better option. If central banks demonstrate certain confidence in this economic uncertainty, then the market will inevitably be more welcoming. Therefore, this reverse incentive will encourage officials to make statements that contradict the facts.</p><p>Contemporary economists discuss economic issues using a great deal of mathematics and formulas, and using numbers to prove facts without question.</p><p>Judging from past academic arguments, the central bank's predictions of crises have never been correct. In order to compete with them, the central bank will inevitably introduce theories to demonstrate that its judgment is correct. Or it could align with policy logic. For example, further signs, such as market factors in labor-intensive countries. To support the logic of the policy.</p><p>These tools also include models, mathematics, authority figures, scenario analysis, and stress testing. However, the same calculations yielded the opposite conclusion. So who is right?</p><p>The central bank itself may consider these proofs to be scientific.</p><p>The Austrian School of Economics also holds another view:</p><p>When injecting liquidity into the economy, it first causes inflation on the asset side. In the initial stage of inflation, the prices of consumer goods may fall because funds will concentrate into certain assets, causing prices to rise and then withdraw. At this point, inflation is not noticeable. Consumer goods did not rise, but industrial goods rose, as did real estate, stocks, and bonds.</p><p>As prices rise, some price troughs will gradually be filled. This will then cause consumer goods prices to rise.</p><p>When consumer prices are rising, it may cause other asset prices to correct. If the central bank hadn't noticed the asset bubbles created by these invisible inflations, concentrated in the market, after injecting liquidity, it was very likely that real interest rates would be lower than natural interest rates. By the time the central bank reacted to consumer goods, it was too late.</p><p>Can the central bank see this? I think it's obvious that the central bank's reaction to inflation was too late, possibly based on discussions about policy pros and cons and a period of hesitation.</p><p>Returning to the present, US inflation exceeded expectations in June, reaching a 13-year high. Inflation expectations continue to strengthen, with core CPI hitting a 20-year high and PPI reaching 7.3%, but the Federal Reserve still believes this is only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97940456ed81feecba7a8676f5e7010c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why is that?</p><p>Central banks, as global policymakers, guide global expectations, and consistent expectations will drive asset prices higher and higher. With asset prices constantly reaching new highs, their vulnerability is increasing, and the slightest disturbance can cause volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a04217e1d9fdb32c05a8656f397171a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In this situation, if a few people turn around and short, it could lead to a price reversal. If the bulls follow suit, the final result would be the bursting of the bubble and trigger a crisis.</p><p>Of course, the larger the asset price bubble inflated in the early stages, the greater the pullback and the greater the damage involved. Let's look at the current prices of major assets:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38acee39105389299807c86e25bc7edc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>House price:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bacce7fe96d81af007de1abfc7169e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Commodities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a7e99789ee50296f251f90fe50a9ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At this point, if policy suddenly shifts, meaning it begins to tighten, then these asset prices could explode.</p><p>Therefore, if we tighten things now, then we're basically finished.</p><p>Without tightening, asset prices would continue to reach new highs. Without significant reforms in production relations, economic efficiency would remain low, and asset prices would continue to rise. Once they reach a certain level, price troughs in consumer goods would be discovered, leading to the sale of overvalued assets and the purchase of low-priced consumer goods. Such overvalued assets will also have their prices collapse.</p><p>Therefore, faced with a dilemma, monetary policy has no choice but to hold on. To maintain the fragile balance of the economy by disrupting expectations.</p><p>When Powell spoke, the market's first question was that inflation had exceeded expectations, but he did not respond. Ye Nai had previously mentioned the risks of high inflation, but later changed her tune, saying it was temporary.</p><p>They expressed their expectations for the economy in obscure and difficult-to-understand language, such as the anchoring effect of inflation and supply-side constraints.</p><p>In short, there is no rush to change the policy.</p><p>Therefore, after interest rates rose in the first quarter, they began to decline continuously and are now maintaining a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5197b8bce798425385d994ae4576f787\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>All inflation is a money phenomenon.</p><p>We need to control inflation while maintaining asset prices. Therefore, when prices rise to a certain level, they will fall. Capital is inherently profit-driven; if asset prices appreciate less, capital will move elsewhere.</p><p>Currently, insufficient demand may curb inflation, but has the fundamentals been considered in the rise of the US stock market in recent years? They didn't consider actual demand, and the rise in housing prices is also a result of excessive money supply.</p><p>If monetary policy shifts now, will demand be stimulated? That's even more ridiculous. Therefore, as long as assets stagnate, the excess money supply will push up prices. Because having a lot of money is the most fundamental reason.</p><p>Moreover, this wave of high prices cannot be sustained, and the United States will inevitably have to withdraw liquidity, ultimately leading to the bursting of the bubble. As global central banks, other countries cannot remain unaffected.</p><p>Printing money is unsustainable. So the rhetoric we're using now is just to stabilize expectations.</p><p>Currently, only a small issue is displayed; that's just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477601\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85a8b00918342fa05f981d941cbe303d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477601","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2154602599","content_text":"最近在思考一个问题，外部在通胀，价格持续上涨，为什么美联储就是不承认通胀呢？一直说是暂时的，而且，最近一直关注劳动力市场，也一直在推迟政策转向找各种理由，所说的进一步迹象也没有答案。最近看了几本书，《资本回报》、《货币与信用原理》、《人的行为》，有一些启发，记录一下。\n经济危机像是周期一样，基本是必然的，在周期下，不断的重复。而美国政府并没有为危机进行了有效的预测或者采取有效的政策来识别。\n这是什么原因呢？\n信用扩张带来的经济繁荣，最终会实现崩溃，这是奥地利经济学派的观点，如果避免债务危机，那么就只能放弃债务的扩张或者使用货币政策的刺激让危机晚点到来，最终爆发更大的危机。\n最终大萧条应证了这样的观点。\n经济的刺激，利率下行，对于流动性较好的资产，就会形成较大的估值溢价，这是一个简单化的逻辑。\n所以， 美国10年债与1年的利差就可以很直观地统计了经济危机的准确性：\n\n那明明知道结果的央行为什么没有做好防御呢？从学术的论证加上实践的操作，央行有这个能力的，可能我们并没看到央行做出的任何改变。在1929年经济危机爆发前，胡佛也一直说经济没有问题。包括1990年前，日本大衰退前也有这种类似的言论。\n在2008年，进一步的信用扩张，刺激经济之后，美国的债务增长其实更快的。而央行为什么要这么做呢？\n考虑到市场情绪对资产价格共震之后，产生的巨大破坏力。如果央行客观陈述了事实与风险之后，引发的资产价格波动，可能是政府不愿承受的。同时也关系到了自身的前途，这点，放在任何国家都是适用的。而市场更多的愿意倾听积极的言论。这符合投资者内心的期待，这就是人性。哪怕以极微弱的概率去维持价格，那也会义无反顾地执行。\n所以，市场是理性的吗？也并不见得。所谓的理性，要建立在确定的信息之上，而哪怕是人为制造出来的确定信息也是可以的。\n如果这次，美联储说通胀是长期的，政府要进行紧缩，这个创新高的指数，该如何调整？可能从全局的角度看，并不是更好的选择。如果央行表现出对经济这种不确性而营造出确定的自信，那么市场的欢迎程度必然更高，所以，这种反向的激励，会使官员说出违背事实的言论。\n当代的经济学家去论述经济学问题，运用大量的数学和公式，用数字去证明事实，且不容质疑。\n从过去学术论证的结果看，央行对于危机的预测从未正确过。为了与之博弈，央行必然会引出理论去论证自己的判断是正确的。或者符合政策逻辑的。比如进一步迹象，比如劳动国市场要素。去支持政策的逻辑。\n这些手段也包括了模型，数学，权威人士、情景分析，压力测试。而同样的测算却得出了相反的结论。那谁是正确的呢？\n可能这些证明，央行自身也觉得是科学。\n奥地利经济学派还有一个观点：\n当向经济运行的过程中，注入流动性，首先使资产端产生通货膨胀，在通胀初始阶段，消费品的价格可能下跌，因为资金会集中进入某些资产，引起价格上涨之后回抽。这时候，通胀是看不出来的。消费品不涨，但工业品涨，房股债涨。\n随着价格越来越高，一些价格洼地也会逐渐的填满。之后，会使消费品价格上涨。\n当消费品价格在上涨时，可能会使其他资产价格出现回调。如果央行没有注意到注入流动性之后，这些看不见的通胀，集中在市场上的通胀产生的资产泡沫，很可能，实际利率低于自然利率的情况出现了。到央行对消费品做出反应时，已经太迟了。\n那么央行能看到吗？我觉得是可以看得见的，央行对于通胀做出的反应太迟，可能基于政策利弊的讨论及犹豫期。\n回到当下，6月美国通胀超预期，13年新高，通胀预期不断在走强，核心CPI创20年新高，PPI也达到了7.3%，但联储仍然认为这只是暂时的。\n\n这是为何？\n作为全球的政策的央行，引导着全球的预期，而一致的预期，将使资产的价格越走越高。而在不断创新高的资产价格，脆弱性越来越强，稍微一点风吹草动，就会引起震荡。\n\n这种情况，只要少数人调头做空，那么可能导致价格的转向，如果引起其多头的跟进，那么最终的结果就是泡沫的破灭，引起危机。\n当然，如果前期资产价格的泡沫吹的越大，这种回调程度就越高，这里面蕴含的破坏就越大，看看现在的主要资产价格：\n\n房价：\n\n大宗商品：\n\n这时候，如果这时候，政策突然转向，也就是开始走向紧缩，那么这些资产价格可能就炸了。\n所以，如果现在收紧，那么基本就是玩完了。\n那如果没有紧缩，资产价格会不断的创新高，生产关系没有大幅度改革的情况下，经济效率维持低位，资产的价格会越来越高，而高到一个程度之后，会发现消费品有价格洼地，就会卖出高估的资产，买入低价消费品。那么高估的资产，价格也会崩溃。\n所以，在进退两难的情况下，货币政策只能硬撑。通过干扰预期，去维持经济的脆弱平衡。\n当鲍威尔讲话时，市场第一个问就是通胀超预期了，他并未进行回应。之前耶奶说了一下高通胀的风险，结果后面也改口了，说是暂时的。\n他们用晦涩难懂的语言表达了对经济的预期，比如通胀锚定效应，还有就是供给侧的约束。\n总之，政策并不着急转向。\n所以，利率在一季度走高之后，开始持续的下行，现在也维持在下行的趋势。\n\n一切通胀都是货币现象。\n一边要控制通胀，一边要维持资产的价格。所以，价格上涨到一定程度，就会是下跌。资本本身就是逐利的，如果资产价格增值越少，那么资本就会换一个地方。\n当前基于需求不足可能会抑制通胀，但这几年的美国股市上涨，有考虑过基本面吗？也没有考虑过实际需求，房价上涨也是，这本身就是货币超发的结果。\n如果现在货币政策转向，那么需求就会刺激出来了？这个就更扯了。所以，只要资产涨不动了，货币的超量就会去推高价格。因为钱多就是最本质的原因。\n而且这波的高价维持不住，美国势必要收回流动性，最终泡沫的破灭。那么作为全球的央行，其他国家不可能独善其身。\n印钱不可持续。所以现在打的嘴炮也就是稳住预期。\n当前只是显示一部小分问题，那只是冰山一角。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176013361,"gmtCreate":1626844679953,"gmtModify":1703766286650,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088510584208570","idStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176013361","repostId":"1110268139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110268139","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626844091,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110268139?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 13:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110268139","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"SAP SE 2021年Q2 营收（亿欧元）：66.69，预期：66.55，前值：67.44。\nQ2 净利润（亿欧元）：14.49，预期：8.79，前值：8.85。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">juice is</a>Revenue in Q2 2021 (€100 million):<b>66.69，</b>Expected: 66.55, previous value: 67.44.</p><p>Q2 Net Profit (€100 million):<b>14.49，</b>Expected: 8.79, previous value: 8.85.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6db77f724586db5bb2a3fad879accdf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 13:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">juice is</a>Revenue in Q2 2021 (€100 million):<b>66.69，</b>Expected: 66.55, previous value: 67.44.</p><p>Q2 Net Profit (€100 million):<b>14.49，</b>Expected: 8.79, previous value: 8.85.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6db77f724586db5bb2a3fad879accdf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d179853b59242be86b56b70e4239af","relate_stocks":{"SAP":"SAP SE"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110268139","content_text":"SAP SE 2021年Q2 营收（亿欧元）：66.69，预期：66.55，前值：67.44。\nQ2 净利润（亿欧元）：14.49，预期：8.79，前值：8.85。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":806842872,"gmtCreate":1627651454796,"gmtModify":1703494108892,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088510584208570","authorIdStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806842872","repostId":"1144748764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802569832,"gmtCreate":1627788765726,"gmtModify":1703495892143,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088510584208570","authorIdStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really ?","listText":"Really ?","text":"Really ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802569832","repostId":"2155894163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155894163","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627778319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155894163?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The worst season for the US stock market is coming.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155894163","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是","content":"<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The worst season for the US stock market is coming.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe worst season for the US stock market is coming.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After experiencing the \"strongest two weeks in history\" from July 1 to July 15, the US stock market is about to usher in the worst month in terms of statistics - August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4aa20635c056c2425c903c7bfa9919\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>just as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>As credit strategist Scott Rubner calculated, the market trend was downward throughout August, one of the worst times of the year, and reached its climax and turning point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. Currently, it is expected that Powell will announce taper at this meeting.</p><p>Specifically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of the year 19 times in 72 years, but after a strong first half, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points.</p><p>Rubner also pointed out that there was no dramatic drop in the first half of this year, and the S&P 500 rose for the sixth consecutive month, marking its longest rise since 2018. However, echoing the above observations, this is not a good thing, given that since August 2010, there have been six declines in the previous 11 Augusts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca60b07fac07ccd13faa80796c2df34d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Nevertheless, Rubner points out that even without looking back at history, this year's situation can lead to the same conclusion, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet should be able to explain it very clearly. As the Federal Reserve's policies are gradually rolled out, the market will become even more illiquid, thus intensifying the decline in August and amplifying any negative news.</p><p>In addition, Rubner reviewed two previous \"August crises,\" which occurred in 2011 and 2015 respectively:</p><p><ul><li>2011 coincided with the ongoing debate in the United States over the debt ceiling. Although the issue was resolved in early August, Standard & Poor's subsequently downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Meanwhile, concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis continued to escalate, ultimately leading to a stock market crash in August.</li><li>In 2015, emerging markets experienced turmoil, which then spread to other regions, including the United States and Europe.</li></ul>Looking ahead to August, Rubner said the focus will be on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting and changes in macroeconomic variables (especially inflation). He also stated that we need to remain vigilant against any unexpected events in the market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636809","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155894163","content_text":"在经历了7月1日到7月15日历史数据统计的“史上最强劲两周”后，美股即将迎来统计数据上的最糟糕月份——八月。\n\n正如高盛信贷策略师Scott Rubner所统计的那样，整个八月份市场趋势都在走低，这是一年中最糟糕的时节之一，并在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上达到高潮和拐点。目前，人们预计鲍威尔将在这次会议上宣布taper。\n具体来看，自1950年以来，标准普尔500指数在72年里有19次在上半年上涨超过10%，但在强劲的上半年之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点。\nRubner还指出，今年上半年没有出现戏剧性的大跌，标准普尔500指数连续第6个月上涨，创下2018年以来最长的上涨时间。然而，与上述观察相呼应这并不是什么好事，毕竟自2010年8月以来，此前的11个8月中有6次下跌。\n\n尽管如此，Rubner指出，即便不回顾历史，今年的状况也能得出同样的结论，美联储的资产负债表就应该能解释得很清楚清楚。随着美联储政策的逐步推出，市场将更加缺乏流动性，因此8月的下跌效应会加剧，任何负面消息都会被放大。\n此外，Rubner还回顾了此前的两次“8月危机”，这两次危机分别发生在2011年和2015年：\n\n2011年，恰逢美国在债务上限问题上的争论不休。尽管这个问题在8月初得到了解决，但标准普尔随后将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA+。与此同时，对欧洲主权债务危机的担忧持续发酵，最终导致8月股市大跌。\n2015年，新兴市场出现了动荡，进而蔓延到包括美国和欧洲在内的其他地区。\n\n对于接下来的8月，Rubner表示，人们关注的焦点将集中于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议，以及宏观变量（尤其是通胀）的变化。他同时表示，我们需要对市场中的任何意外保持警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809694530,"gmtCreate":1627363515020,"gmtModify":1703488423831,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088510584208570","authorIdStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809694530","repostId":"2154602599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154602599","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627363025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154602599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 13:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154602599","media":"格隆汇","summary":"最近在思考一个问题，外部在通胀，价格持续上涨，为什么美联储就是不承认通胀呢？一直说是暂时的，而且，最近一直关注劳动力市场，也一直在推迟政策转向找各种理由，所说的进一步迹象也没有答案。最近看了几本书，《","content":"<p>I've been thinking about a question lately: with inflation and rising prices, why doesn't the Federal Reserve acknowledge inflation? They have always said it is temporary, and they have been paying close attention to the labor market recently, and they have been postponing policy changes and finding various reasons. There is no answer to the further signs they have mentioned. I've recently read several books, including \"Return on Capital,\" \"Principles of Money and Credit,\" and \"Human Behavior,\" which have given me some inspiration, so I'm writing them down.</p><p>Economic crises, like cycles, are basically inevitable and repeat themselves constantly within cycles. The U.S. government did not effectively predict the crisis or adopt effective policies to identify it.</p><p>What is the reason for this?</p><p>The economic prosperity brought about by credit expansion will eventually collapse, according to the Austrian School of Economics. If a debt crisis can be avoided, the only solution is to abandon debt expansion or use monetary policy stimulus to delay the crisis and eventually lead to a larger crisis.</p><p>The Great Depression eventually confirmed this view.</p><p>Economic stimulus and declining interest rates create a significant valuation premium for assets with good liquidity; this is a simplified logic.</p><p>Therefore, the spread between 10-year and 1-year US Treasury yields can provide a clear indication of the accuracy of the economic crisis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/402b576b3c1c9b3ba8531861c0fc5afe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why didn't the central bank, which clearly knew the outcome, take precautions? Based on academic arguments and practical operations, the central bank has the capability, but we may not have seen any changes made by the central bank. Before the economic crisis of 1929, Hoover also kept saying that the economy was fine. Similar remarks were made even before 1990, before the Great Recession in Japan.</p><p>In 2008, after further credit expansion stimulated the economy, U.S. debt actually grew faster. Why would the central bank do this?</p><p>Considering the enormous destructive power that market sentiment can generate after asset prices resonate. If the central bank objectively states the facts and risks, the resulting asset price fluctuations may be something the government is unwilling to bear. It also concerns one's own future, a point that applies to any country. The market is more willing to listen to positive opinions. This aligns with investors' expectations; that's human nature. Even if the probability of maintaining the price is extremely low, it will be carried out without hesitation.</p><p>So, is the market rational? Not necessarily. So-called rationality must be based on certain information, and even artificially created certain information is acceptable.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve says inflation is long-term and the government needs to tighten, how should this record-high index be adjusted? From a global perspective, it might not be a better option. If central banks demonstrate certain confidence in this economic uncertainty, then the market will inevitably be more welcoming. Therefore, this reverse incentive will encourage officials to make statements that contradict the facts.</p><p>Contemporary economists discuss economic issues using a great deal of mathematics and formulas, and using numbers to prove facts without question.</p><p>Judging from past academic arguments, the central bank's predictions of crises have never been correct. In order to compete with them, the central bank will inevitably introduce theories to demonstrate that its judgment is correct. Or it could align with policy logic. For example, further signs, such as market factors in labor-intensive countries. To support the logic of the policy.</p><p>These tools also include models, mathematics, authority figures, scenario analysis, and stress testing. However, the same calculations yielded the opposite conclusion. So who is right?</p><p>The central bank itself may consider these proofs to be scientific.</p><p>The Austrian School of Economics also holds another view:</p><p>When injecting liquidity into the economy, it first causes inflation on the asset side. In the initial stage of inflation, the prices of consumer goods may fall because funds will concentrate into certain assets, causing prices to rise and then withdraw. At this point, inflation is not noticeable. Consumer goods did not rise, but industrial goods rose, as did real estate, stocks, and bonds.</p><p>As prices rise, some price troughs will gradually be filled. This will then cause consumer goods prices to rise.</p><p>When consumer prices are rising, it may cause other asset prices to correct. If the central bank hadn't noticed the asset bubbles created by these invisible inflations, concentrated in the market, after injecting liquidity, it was very likely that real interest rates would be lower than natural interest rates. By the time the central bank reacted to consumer goods, it was too late.</p><p>Can the central bank see this? I think it's obvious that the central bank's reaction to inflation was too late, possibly based on discussions about policy pros and cons and a period of hesitation.</p><p>Returning to the present, US inflation exceeded expectations in June, reaching a 13-year high. Inflation expectations continue to strengthen, with core CPI hitting a 20-year high and PPI reaching 7.3%, but the Federal Reserve still believes this is only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97940456ed81feecba7a8676f5e7010c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why is that?</p><p>Central banks, as global policymakers, guide global expectations, and consistent expectations will drive asset prices higher and higher. With asset prices constantly reaching new highs, their vulnerability is increasing, and the slightest disturbance can cause volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a04217e1d9fdb32c05a8656f397171a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In this situation, if a few people turn around and short, it could lead to a price reversal. If the bulls follow suit, the final result would be the bursting of the bubble and trigger a crisis.</p><p>Of course, the larger the asset price bubble inflated in the early stages, the greater the pullback and the greater the damage involved. Let's look at the current prices of major assets:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38acee39105389299807c86e25bc7edc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>House price:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bacce7fe96d81af007de1abfc7169e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Commodities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a7e99789ee50296f251f90fe50a9ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At this point, if policy suddenly shifts, meaning it begins to tighten, then these asset prices could explode.</p><p>Therefore, if we tighten things now, then we're basically finished.</p><p>Without tightening, asset prices would continue to reach new highs. Without significant reforms in production relations, economic efficiency would remain low, and asset prices would continue to rise. Once they reach a certain level, price troughs in consumer goods would be discovered, leading to the sale of overvalued assets and the purchase of low-priced consumer goods. Such overvalued assets will also have their prices collapse.</p><p>Therefore, faced with a dilemma, monetary policy has no choice but to hold on. To maintain the fragile balance of the economy by disrupting expectations.</p><p>When Powell spoke, the market's first question was that inflation had exceeded expectations, but he did not respond. Ye Nai had previously mentioned the risks of high inflation, but later changed her tune, saying it was temporary.</p><p>They expressed their expectations for the economy in obscure and difficult-to-understand language, such as the anchoring effect of inflation and supply-side constraints.</p><p>In short, there is no rush to change the policy.</p><p>Therefore, after interest rates rose in the first quarter, they began to decline continuously and are now maintaining a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5197b8bce798425385d994ae4576f787\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>All inflation is a money phenomenon.</p><p>We need to control inflation while maintaining asset prices. Therefore, when prices rise to a certain level, they will fall. Capital is inherently profit-driven; if asset prices appreciate less, capital will move elsewhere.</p><p>Currently, insufficient demand may curb inflation, but has the fundamentals been considered in the rise of the US stock market in recent years? They didn't consider actual demand, and the rise in housing prices is also a result of excessive money supply.</p><p>If monetary policy shifts now, will demand be stimulated? That's even more ridiculous. Therefore, as long as assets stagnate, the excess money supply will push up prices. Because having a lot of money is the most fundamental reason.</p><p>Moreover, this wave of high prices cannot be sustained, and the United States will inevitably have to withdraw liquidity, ultimately leading to the bursting of the bubble. As global central banks, other countries cannot remain unaffected.</p><p>Printing money is unsustainable. So the rhetoric we're using now is just to stabilize expectations.</p><p>Currently, only a small issue is displayed; that's just the tip of the iceberg.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat happened to the Federal Reserve? Is there actually inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I've been thinking about a question lately: with inflation and rising prices, why doesn't the Federal Reserve acknowledge inflation? They have always said it is temporary, and they have been paying close attention to the labor market recently, and they have been postponing policy changes and finding various reasons. There is no answer to the further signs they have mentioned. I've recently read several books, including \"Return on Capital,\" \"Principles of Money and Credit,\" and \"Human Behavior,\" which have given me some inspiration, so I'm writing them down.</p><p>Economic crises, like cycles, are basically inevitable and repeat themselves constantly within cycles. The U.S. government did not effectively predict the crisis or adopt effective policies to identify it.</p><p>What is the reason for this?</p><p>The economic prosperity brought about by credit expansion will eventually collapse, according to the Austrian School of Economics. If a debt crisis can be avoided, the only solution is to abandon debt expansion or use monetary policy stimulus to delay the crisis and eventually lead to a larger crisis.</p><p>The Great Depression eventually confirmed this view.</p><p>Economic stimulus and declining interest rates create a significant valuation premium for assets with good liquidity; this is a simplified logic.</p><p>Therefore, the spread between 10-year and 1-year US Treasury yields can provide a clear indication of the accuracy of the economic crisis:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/402b576b3c1c9b3ba8531861c0fc5afe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why didn't the central bank, which clearly knew the outcome, take precautions? Based on academic arguments and practical operations, the central bank has the capability, but we may not have seen any changes made by the central bank. Before the economic crisis of 1929, Hoover also kept saying that the economy was fine. Similar remarks were made even before 1990, before the Great Recession in Japan.</p><p>In 2008, after further credit expansion stimulated the economy, U.S. debt actually grew faster. Why would the central bank do this?</p><p>Considering the enormous destructive power that market sentiment can generate after asset prices resonate. If the central bank objectively states the facts and risks, the resulting asset price fluctuations may be something the government is unwilling to bear. It also concerns one's own future, a point that applies to any country. The market is more willing to listen to positive opinions. This aligns with investors' expectations; that's human nature. Even if the probability of maintaining the price is extremely low, it will be carried out without hesitation.</p><p>So, is the market rational? Not necessarily. So-called rationality must be based on certain information, and even artificially created certain information is acceptable.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve says inflation is long-term and the government needs to tighten, how should this record-high index be adjusted? From a global perspective, it might not be a better option. If central banks demonstrate certain confidence in this economic uncertainty, then the market will inevitably be more welcoming. Therefore, this reverse incentive will encourage officials to make statements that contradict the facts.</p><p>Contemporary economists discuss economic issues using a great deal of mathematics and formulas, and using numbers to prove facts without question.</p><p>Judging from past academic arguments, the central bank's predictions of crises have never been correct. In order to compete with them, the central bank will inevitably introduce theories to demonstrate that its judgment is correct. Or it could align with policy logic. For example, further signs, such as market factors in labor-intensive countries. To support the logic of the policy.</p><p>These tools also include models, mathematics, authority figures, scenario analysis, and stress testing. However, the same calculations yielded the opposite conclusion. So who is right?</p><p>The central bank itself may consider these proofs to be scientific.</p><p>The Austrian School of Economics also holds another view:</p><p>When injecting liquidity into the economy, it first causes inflation on the asset side. In the initial stage of inflation, the prices of consumer goods may fall because funds will concentrate into certain assets, causing prices to rise and then withdraw. At this point, inflation is not noticeable. Consumer goods did not rise, but industrial goods rose, as did real estate, stocks, and bonds.</p><p>As prices rise, some price troughs will gradually be filled. This will then cause consumer goods prices to rise.</p><p>When consumer prices are rising, it may cause other asset prices to correct. If the central bank hadn't noticed the asset bubbles created by these invisible inflations, concentrated in the market, after injecting liquidity, it was very likely that real interest rates would be lower than natural interest rates. By the time the central bank reacted to consumer goods, it was too late.</p><p>Can the central bank see this? I think it's obvious that the central bank's reaction to inflation was too late, possibly based on discussions about policy pros and cons and a period of hesitation.</p><p>Returning to the present, US inflation exceeded expectations in June, reaching a 13-year high. Inflation expectations continue to strengthen, with core CPI hitting a 20-year high and PPI reaching 7.3%, but the Federal Reserve still believes this is only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97940456ed81feecba7a8676f5e7010c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Why is that?</p><p>Central banks, as global policymakers, guide global expectations, and consistent expectations will drive asset prices higher and higher. With asset prices constantly reaching new highs, their vulnerability is increasing, and the slightest disturbance can cause volatility.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a04217e1d9fdb32c05a8656f397171a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In this situation, if a few people turn around and short, it could lead to a price reversal. If the bulls follow suit, the final result would be the bursting of the bubble and trigger a crisis.</p><p>Of course, the larger the asset price bubble inflated in the early stages, the greater the pullback and the greater the damage involved. Let's look at the current prices of major assets:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38acee39105389299807c86e25bc7edc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>House price:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bacce7fe96d81af007de1abfc7169e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Commodities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a7e99789ee50296f251f90fe50a9ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At this point, if policy suddenly shifts, meaning it begins to tighten, then these asset prices could explode.</p><p>Therefore, if we tighten things now, then we're basically finished.</p><p>Without tightening, asset prices would continue to reach new highs. Without significant reforms in production relations, economic efficiency would remain low, and asset prices would continue to rise. Once they reach a certain level, price troughs in consumer goods would be discovered, leading to the sale of overvalued assets and the purchase of low-priced consumer goods. Such overvalued assets will also have their prices collapse.</p><p>Therefore, faced with a dilemma, monetary policy has no choice but to hold on. To maintain the fragile balance of the economy by disrupting expectations.</p><p>When Powell spoke, the market's first question was that inflation had exceeded expectations, but he did not respond. Ye Nai had previously mentioned the risks of high inflation, but later changed her tune, saying it was temporary.</p><p>They expressed their expectations for the economy in obscure and difficult-to-understand language, such as the anchoring effect of inflation and supply-side constraints.</p><p>In short, there is no rush to change the policy.</p><p>Therefore, after interest rates rose in the first quarter, they began to decline continuously and are now maintaining a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5197b8bce798425385d994ae4576f787\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>All inflation is a money phenomenon.</p><p>We need to control inflation while maintaining asset prices. Therefore, when prices rise to a certain level, they will fall. Capital is inherently profit-driven; if asset prices appreciate less, capital will move elsewhere.</p><p>Currently, insufficient demand may curb inflation, but has the fundamentals been considered in the rise of the US stock market in recent years? They didn't consider actual demand, and the rise in housing prices is also a result of excessive money supply.</p><p>If monetary policy shifts now, will demand be stimulated? That's even more ridiculous. Therefore, as long as assets stagnate, the excess money supply will push up prices. Because having a lot of money is the most fundamental reason.</p><p>Moreover, this wave of high prices cannot be sustained, and the United States will inevitably have to withdraw liquidity, ultimately leading to the bursting of the bubble. As global central banks, other countries cannot remain unaffected.</p><p>Printing money is unsustainable. So the rhetoric we're using now is just to stabilize expectations.</p><p>Currently, only a small issue is displayed; that's just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477601\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85a8b00918342fa05f981d941cbe303d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/477601","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2154602599","content_text":"最近在思考一个问题，外部在通胀，价格持续上涨，为什么美联储就是不承认通胀呢？一直说是暂时的，而且，最近一直关注劳动力市场，也一直在推迟政策转向找各种理由，所说的进一步迹象也没有答案。最近看了几本书，《资本回报》、《货币与信用原理》、《人的行为》，有一些启发，记录一下。\n经济危机像是周期一样，基本是必然的，在周期下，不断的重复。而美国政府并没有为危机进行了有效的预测或者采取有效的政策来识别。\n这是什么原因呢？\n信用扩张带来的经济繁荣，最终会实现崩溃，这是奥地利经济学派的观点，如果避免债务危机，那么就只能放弃债务的扩张或者使用货币政策的刺激让危机晚点到来，最终爆发更大的危机。\n最终大萧条应证了这样的观点。\n经济的刺激，利率下行，对于流动性较好的资产，就会形成较大的估值溢价，这是一个简单化的逻辑。\n所以， 美国10年债与1年的利差就可以很直观地统计了经济危机的准确性：\n\n那明明知道结果的央行为什么没有做好防御呢？从学术的论证加上实践的操作，央行有这个能力的，可能我们并没看到央行做出的任何改变。在1929年经济危机爆发前，胡佛也一直说经济没有问题。包括1990年前，日本大衰退前也有这种类似的言论。\n在2008年，进一步的信用扩张，刺激经济之后，美国的债务增长其实更快的。而央行为什么要这么做呢？\n考虑到市场情绪对资产价格共震之后，产生的巨大破坏力。如果央行客观陈述了事实与风险之后，引发的资产价格波动，可能是政府不愿承受的。同时也关系到了自身的前途，这点，放在任何国家都是适用的。而市场更多的愿意倾听积极的言论。这符合投资者内心的期待，这就是人性。哪怕以极微弱的概率去维持价格，那也会义无反顾地执行。\n所以，市场是理性的吗？也并不见得。所谓的理性，要建立在确定的信息之上，而哪怕是人为制造出来的确定信息也是可以的。\n如果这次，美联储说通胀是长期的，政府要进行紧缩，这个创新高的指数，该如何调整？可能从全局的角度看，并不是更好的选择。如果央行表现出对经济这种不确性而营造出确定的自信，那么市场的欢迎程度必然更高，所以，这种反向的激励，会使官员说出违背事实的言论。\n当代的经济学家去论述经济学问题，运用大量的数学和公式，用数字去证明事实，且不容质疑。\n从过去学术论证的结果看，央行对于危机的预测从未正确过。为了与之博弈，央行必然会引出理论去论证自己的判断是正确的。或者符合政策逻辑的。比如进一步迹象，比如劳动国市场要素。去支持政策的逻辑。\n这些手段也包括了模型，数学，权威人士、情景分析，压力测试。而同样的测算却得出了相反的结论。那谁是正确的呢？\n可能这些证明，央行自身也觉得是科学。\n奥地利经济学派还有一个观点：\n当向经济运行的过程中，注入流动性，首先使资产端产生通货膨胀，在通胀初始阶段，消费品的价格可能下跌，因为资金会集中进入某些资产，引起价格上涨之后回抽。这时候，通胀是看不出来的。消费品不涨，但工业品涨，房股债涨。\n随着价格越来越高，一些价格洼地也会逐渐的填满。之后，会使消费品价格上涨。\n当消费品价格在上涨时，可能会使其他资产价格出现回调。如果央行没有注意到注入流动性之后，这些看不见的通胀，集中在市场上的通胀产生的资产泡沫，很可能，实际利率低于自然利率的情况出现了。到央行对消费品做出反应时，已经太迟了。\n那么央行能看到吗？我觉得是可以看得见的，央行对于通胀做出的反应太迟，可能基于政策利弊的讨论及犹豫期。\n回到当下，6月美国通胀超预期，13年新高，通胀预期不断在走强，核心CPI创20年新高，PPI也达到了7.3%，但联储仍然认为这只是暂时的。\n\n这是为何？\n作为全球的政策的央行，引导着全球的预期，而一致的预期，将使资产的价格越走越高。而在不断创新高的资产价格，脆弱性越来越强，稍微一点风吹草动，就会引起震荡。\n\n这种情况，只要少数人调头做空，那么可能导致价格的转向，如果引起其多头的跟进，那么最终的结果就是泡沫的破灭，引起危机。\n当然，如果前期资产价格的泡沫吹的越大，这种回调程度就越高，这里面蕴含的破坏就越大，看看现在的主要资产价格：\n\n房价：\n\n大宗商品：\n\n这时候，如果这时候，政策突然转向，也就是开始走向紧缩，那么这些资产价格可能就炸了。\n所以，如果现在收紧，那么基本就是玩完了。\n那如果没有紧缩，资产价格会不断的创新高，生产关系没有大幅度改革的情况下，经济效率维持低位，资产的价格会越来越高，而高到一个程度之后，会发现消费品有价格洼地，就会卖出高估的资产，买入低价消费品。那么高估的资产，价格也会崩溃。\n所以，在进退两难的情况下，货币政策只能硬撑。通过干扰预期，去维持经济的脆弱平衡。\n当鲍威尔讲话时，市场第一个问就是通胀超预期了，他并未进行回应。之前耶奶说了一下高通胀的风险，结果后面也改口了，说是暂时的。\n他们用晦涩难懂的语言表达了对经济的预期，比如通胀锚定效应，还有就是供给侧的约束。\n总之，政策并不着急转向。\n所以，利率在一季度走高之后，开始持续的下行，现在也维持在下行的趋势。\n\n一切通胀都是货币现象。\n一边要控制通胀，一边要维持资产的价格。所以，价格上涨到一定程度，就会是下跌。资本本身就是逐利的，如果资产价格增值越少，那么资本就会换一个地方。\n当前基于需求不足可能会抑制通胀，但这几年的美国股市上涨，有考虑过基本面吗？也没有考虑过实际需求，房价上涨也是，这本身就是货币超发的结果。\n如果现在货币政策转向，那么需求就会刺激出来了？这个就更扯了。所以，只要资产涨不动了，货币的超量就会去推高价格。因为钱多就是最本质的原因。\n而且这波的高价维持不住，美国势必要收回流动性，最终泡沫的破灭。那么作为全球的央行，其他国家不可能独善其身。\n印钱不可持续。所以现在打的嘴炮也就是稳住预期。\n当前只是显示一部小分问题，那只是冰山一角。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176013361,"gmtCreate":1626844679953,"gmtModify":1703766286650,"author":{"id":"4088510584208570","authorId":"4088510584208570","name":"DavidChung","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790a1450aa7bdec104690967e1c814f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088510584208570","authorIdStr":"4088510584208570"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176013361","repostId":"1110268139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110268139","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626844091,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110268139?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 13:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110268139","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"SAP SE 2021年Q2 营收（亿欧元）：66.69，预期：66.55，前值：67.44。\nQ2 净利润（亿欧元）：14.49，预期：8.79，前值：8.85。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">juice is</a>Revenue in Q2 2021 (€100 million):<b>66.69，</b>Expected: 66.55, previous value: 67.44.</p><p>Q2 Net Profit (€100 million):<b>14.49，</b>Expected: 8.79, previous value: 8.85.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6db77f724586db5bb2a3fad879accdf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; 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0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSAP's second-quarter revenue was €6.669 billion, exceeding expectations.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 13:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">juice is</a>Revenue in Q2 2021 (€100 million):<b>66.69，</b>Expected: 66.55, previous value: 67.44.</p><p>Q2 Net Profit (€100 million):<b>14.49，</b>Expected: 8.79, previous value: 8.85.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6db77f724586db5bb2a3fad879accdf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d179853b59242be86b56b70e4239af","relate_stocks":{"SAP":"SAP SE"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110268139","content_text":"SAP SE 2021年Q2 营收（亿欧元）：66.69，预期：66.55，前值：67.44。\nQ2 净利润（亿欧元）：14.49，预期：8.79，前值：8.85。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
