MM2021MM personal page - To The Moon

MM2021MM

MM2021MM

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2024-01-14

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good

2024-01-13

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good

2024-01-12

$New Oriental Education & Technology(EDU)$ good

2024-01-11

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2024-01-10

$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ good

2024-01-09

$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ good good

2024-01-09

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2024-01-08

okok

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2024-01-08

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2024-01-06

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2024-01-05

$New Oriental Education & Technology(EDU)$ good good

2024-01-04

$Logitech International SA(LOGI)$ good good

2024-01-03

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2024-01-02

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ giod good

2024-01-01

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2023-12-31

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2023-12-30

okok

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2023-12-30

Good good$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$

2023-12-29

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

2023-12-28

$WESFARMERS LIMITED(WES.AU)$ good good

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? 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LIMITED(WES.AU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257415684726784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074878802,"gmtCreate":1658354497606,"gmtModify":1676536143405,"author":{"id":"4090641541997090","authorId":"4090641541997090","name":"MM2021MM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b938c94992946771441f930457a55fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090641541997090","authorIdStr":"4090641541997090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074878802","repostId":"1196821163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196821163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658326752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196821163?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-20 22:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Really tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fish tail\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196821163","media":"表外表里","summary":"芒格对比亚迪的偏爱，没能经得住考验。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Munger vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The preference failed to stand the test.</p><p>According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 225 million shares of BYD were transferred to Citibank on July 11, exactly the same amount as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>BYD's shareholding ratio among the heavyweight stocks at the end of 2021 is the same.</p><p>Tens of billions of positions were moved from the safe to the roadside stall of the vegetable market, just like a \"running\" attitude.</p><p>However, the market seems to have doubts about whether the victim behind this incident is Munger. After all, Munger has always been passionate about BYD, which is obvious to all.</p><p>In 2008, Munger made the third call to Buffett to suggest an investment in 51 years of acquaintance, and the investment target was BYD.</p><p>After cutting into the investment, Munger and Buffett have repeatedly supported BYD on the spot, at shareholder meetings or on social networks.</p><p>For example, when Munger attended the annual meeting of the Daily Journal in 2018, he said: \"BYD is very important and is now an extremely successful company.\"</p><p>In response to the question \"will BYD shares be sold\", he said categorically: Sell BYD? I guess that's not my style, BYD is part of the Munger family and I think I'll take it to my grave.</p><p>Such an \"affectionate\" image, saying that he will change his mind, is somewhat \"unbelievable\". But in the business world, everyone is a fox for thousands of years, so there is no white lotus.</p><p>It can be seen that since he bought it at HK $8 per share in 2008, Munger has held BYD for 14 years, and the return has been nearly 36 times. Might as well return to the investment itself and see if it's time for BYD to sell?</p><p><b>Survived the first high point of venture capital exit, betting on high sales and cashing in</b></p><p>\"When you bet on a company like BYD, you are not just betting on BYD, but betting that something is about to be confirmed.\" At the 2010 annual meeting, Munger explained the logic of investing in BYD.</p><p>The \"something\" he referred to is the underlying logic of early investment in the project-the track, horse, and rider. When it comes to BYD, it is the new energy track, BYD and Wang Chuanfu team.</p><p>In other words, Munger's original intention of investing in BYD was a venture capital.</p><p>Munger's old buddy Buffett praised in an interview in the same year: \"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu is an extraordinary person, and I am very optimistic about their management.\"</p><p>However, whether the vision is accurate or not, in the end, you still have to speak with high returns. Therefore, the exit timing of venture capital is important.</p><p>From the perspective of the technological development stage of Gartner curve, there are two optimal exit points for venture capital:</p><p>The first high point is the overheating period before sliding to the trough, and the second high point is the climbing period before entering the plateau.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e682d0450f3dd4b762988586258a6c87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Referring to this rule, from 2008 to 2010, under the background of hot market expectations for new energy technology, BYD launched the world's first new energy vehicle that does not rely on professional charging stations-the F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle, and the first batch of pure electric vehicles for the public. E6 has become the \"leader\" in the new energy track.</p><p>As a result, its stock price rose from 8 Hong Kong dollars to a peak of 80 Hong Kong dollars, a 10-fold increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639d973144f097be1d3b93575a737200\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, BYD around 2010 was at its first peak-the overheating period before slipping to the trough.</p><p>But Munger did not quit at that time, but continued to hold it. The reason was: BYD focuses on the new energy vehicle market, which is huge, so he has confidence in BYD.</p><p>Luckily, things were indeed betted by him. Ten years later, the new energy vehicle industry shifted from to B to C era, and sales climbed rapidly.</p><p>After several rounds of iterations, BYD's battery technology and hybrid technology have been successfully implemented and realized sales.</p><p>As shown in the figure below, after the launch of BYD Han equipped with blade batteries in 2020, Qin Plus, Song Plus and Tang equipped with DM-i super hybrid models in 2021, sales increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41807d4a798b7b6bf0a84df8fd4af570\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This also means that with the increase in technology adoption and the acceleration of user penetration, BYD is currently heading for its second high point.</p><p>Whether it can reach a high point in the end mainly depends on two aspects: first, whether the company has more possibilities and space; The second is the current market, whether the price is in a relatively mature situation.</p><p>As far as the first condition is concerned, there is currently no clear path for the large-scale application of BYD technology in the short to medium term:</p><p>The highly popular semiconductor sector mainly produces electronic control and industrial chips such as IGBTs and MCUs, and it started late, and its reliability is significantly behind that of major international manufacturers. Higher-order<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving chips and digital cockpit chips have not yet been involved.</p><p>In the mobile phone processing business, although electronic atomization has broken through technical barriers, the market space is small and the landing time is uncertain.</p><p>In this way, the judgment pressure comes to the second condition. So, what is the status of BYD's current stock price?</p><p><b>The logic of venture capital has been fulfilled, and the fattest period of growth stocks has been enjoyed</b></p><p>The data shows that the new energy industry is still in the stage of accelerated penetration. From June 2021 to June 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 14.6% to 27.4%.</p><p>At the same time, BYD's sales have also grown rapidly. In June this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 134,000, ranking first among segmented brands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0363a0dca6360b43082d07202de7defc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, with the huge industry space and its own rapid development, many people think that BYD is undoubtedly the \"best\" growth stock target.</p><p>In the short and medium term, the performance realization is relatively optimistic.</p><p>In the 2021 annual report conference call, the management expected the sales situation in 2022 to be: conservatively estimated sales of 1.5 million vehicles, hitting the annual target of 2 million.</p><p>The logical support for this expectation is:</p><p>BYD is still at the peak of technology realization, and there will be policy stimulus in the second half of the year (new energy vehicles going to the countryside, etc.).</p><p>Previously, sales were restricted by production capacity and failed to be released on a large scale: Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting last month that BYD currently has more than 500,000 orders in hand.</p><p>The company also has a number of reserve models to be delivered, such as the Seal on the e3.0 platform. The order reached 22,600 vehicles within 7 hours of pre-sale. The supplier recently revealed that the current order is about 110,000 vehicles.</p><p>With the commissioning of the new factory (Hefei factory) in the second half of this year, sales will be gradually released.</p><p>Of course, this is only a short-term cash.</p><p>The core of growth stocks is to pay attention to the sustainability of performance realization within a certain period of time. To determine this, it is necessary to find out at what stage the market has responded to BYD's current pricing?</p><p>We dismantled BYD's business composition (as shown in the figure below), and calculated according to the segment valuation method, the corresponding valuation of BYD's auto sector is about 742.5 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9523aebf143684b78bd6050ec35d3c9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) BYD's market value was selected at 2022.7.20, and the average value of A shares and Hong Kong stocks was selected; (2) For battery, mobile phone and semiconductor sectors, the valuation adopts the average recent valuation of securities firms.</p><p>According to such a valuation, we reasonably assume that the net profit rate of BYD's auto board can reach 10%, and assume that the average bicycle revenue in the future is 180,000. Under the condition of giving 10-20 times PE, we can get the market's sales of BYD. It is expected to be 4.12/275/2.06 million vehicles.</p><p>The sales value of 4.12 million vehicles even exceeded the market's sales forecast for 2025. In other words, from a static perspective, the market's current pricing of BYD is overdrawn by sales in the next three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714012c42981478a7604ebbfcc5c6f7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) The valuation assumption is based on the historical PE range of mature car companies; (2) BYD is currently engaged in autonomous driving and intelligence, and has not shown the powerful side of software subscription SaaS. PE will continue traditional car companies; (3) In 2021, BYD's average bicycle revenue will be 148,000. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models, there is a strong certainty that the average bicycle revenue will reach 180,000.</p><p>In the three-year latitude, with dynamic changes in industry prosperity, policies, competitive environment, etc., how certain is BYD's fulfillment?</p><p>Let's calculate and reasonably assume that passenger car sales can reach 25 million in 2025, and BYD's market share corresponding to 4.12 million sales will be 16.5%. (Even with the 2.75 million sales expected under 15 times PE, the corresponding market share exceeds 10%)</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. market, in recent years, there are four automobile manufacturers with a market share of more than 10%, and the probability of achievement is relatively high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1410aeb7dedb883046086ad960d41c2e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, judging from the current Chinese market, since 2013, the changes in the passenger car market share of mainstream domestic car companies show that among the segmented brands, only FAW-Volkswagen has a market share of more than 10% in 2020, and in only one year, Its market share has once again returned to below 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df36cbba4a4aac7e9b47032c4122d2d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve a market share of more than 10% in the domestic market. If you want to quantify BYD's certainty in this area, the probability is about 1/17 with reference to the above changes.</p><p>In addition to the problem of sales realization, the 10% net profit rate optimistically assumed above is actually difficult to achieve.</p><p>Among the most mature automobile manufacturers in the world, only Ford and Volkswagen have each had a year in the past ten years, with a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae86894e7b55e18083aa5896deb9ffe3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As for domestic independent brands, the net profit margin performance is relatively good<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>, in the 16 years from 2005 to 2021, there are 10 years in which the net profit rate exceeds 10%.</p><p>But this was all before 2017, and it was the early dividend of the SUV market. After that, the market competition intensified and the low prosperity of the automobile industry made it difficult to maintain a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p>For other independent brands, the situation that the net profit margin exceeds 10% does not last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278878cf91bf41602fc206626a065512\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on this, according to the most optimistic assumption and referring to historical experience, the probability of BYD's net profit margin exceeding 10%, referring to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>The situation is about 5/8, and the probability that the market share exceeds 10% is 1/17, and the probability that the two items can be cashed out at the same time is only 3.7%.</p><p>In other words, BYD's current pricing already contains a relatively mature state, indicating that it has reached the second high point with a high probability. This means that Munger's venture capital logic has ended, and growth stock investment has also enjoyed the fattest period.</p><p>However, this pricing does not represent the end of investment opportunities. After all, pricing only reflects the eve of the transition from growth to value investing.</p><p><b>The car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and the fishtail stage may not be suitable for value investment</b></p><p>As we all know, the excellent target of value investment is a money-making machine with \"certain input and unlimited output\". The logic of investment is:</p><p>Buying relatively good companies with a certain margin of safety has a long product life cycle, does not require large-scale capital investment, and has low bargaining power of production factors, so they can achieve good profitability.</p><p>So, is BYD such a target?</p><p>As a high-priced consumable, automobiles have a certain service life, especially in China. In addition to meeting the national annual inspection requirements, the reason for car replacement is the demand for car replacement brought about by the improvement of domestic consumption level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35ed93a982b1e550533906a33cdc086\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with this part of the replacement demand, car companies have made every effort to launch new products, gradually forming the rule of \"updating and facelifting every year, replacing and replacing in three years, and technological innovation in five years\".</p><p>Not only that, in the current industry transformation period, the level of new energy and intelligence is upgrading rapidly, driving high R&D investment. Therefore, the R&D expenses of traditional car companies account for 5%-8% of revenue, and new forces account for even more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfba5d8516d9b98eb8c70ce054a83441\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Competition and renewal are required every day, and the product life cycle will not be long, so it is difficult to become a good business in the eyes of value investors.</p><p>However, even if the research and development of the vehicle model successfully enters the mass production process, the update requirements for fixed assets such as production lines are put forward-expanding new production lines and transforming old production lines.</p><p>Munger once said: There are two kinds of businesses in the world, the first one earns 12% of the annual income, and you can take all the profits at the end of the year; The second one also earns 12% a year, but you have to reinvest the money you earn, and then point to all the plant equipment and say to the shareholders: This is your profit.</p><p>Looking at it this way, the situation of BYD or automobile manufacturers is in line with the second type of business.</p><p>And Munger's attitude is: I hate the second business.</p><p>The reason why I am so disgusted may be that this business model requires constant investment of capital, but the ROI is not attractive.</p><p>After all, in the eyes of Munger's old buddy Buffett,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The gross profit margin of 21% is a \"dwarf\" existence compared with a real high-quality enterprise.</p><p>Going back to BYD, it stopped the production of fuel vehicles in March this year, and then focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid businesses.</p><p>This means that if the production capacity expansion plan of new models must be implemented quickly, high capital expenditures will be inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40d12771d271c56eaf640a6bdb04176\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the fixed assets originally dedicated to the production of fuel vehicles face a higher risk of fixed asset impairment, which will also \"eat\" BYD's profits to a certain extent.</p><p>A lot of Capex, D&A is just one aspect, and there is another trouble.</p><p>Car companies do not have much bargaining power when facing labor production factors. (European and American trade unions won't say it, I believe this is common sense)</p><p>It can be seen that with the improvement of the electrification and intelligence level of car companies, the high-end talent structure, and the fading demographic dividend, since 2017, the proportion of employee salaries in car companies' income has continued to rise.</p><p>BYD is no exception. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of its employee salaries will reach 31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ffd0f0e76157d5fddf634cef271d87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this part of rigid expenditure still has the problem that it is difficult to adjust according to the prosperity of the industry-when the prosperity of the industry rises, enterprises may not be able to retain outstanding talents without salary increases, but when the prosperity declines, it is difficult to reduce salaries.</p><p>What this may bring is that the number of employees is increasing, but the per capita benefit has not improved significantly. As shown in the figure below, BYD's per capita net profit in 2021 will fall instead of rising.</p><p>After slimming down, the income statement ended up being very thin. Taking 2021 as an example, the gross profit margin is only 13%, and the net profit margin is less than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6daa6de627ed10ddf122d33b27c2ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Such income performance obviously cannot satisfy the appetite for value investing.</p><p>All in all, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\". Compared with when Munger bought it, the current BYD has no \"36 times return\" story to tell, which may not be suitable for the logic of value investment.</p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p>At the Daily Journal shareholders' meeting at the beginning of last year, Munger was still not afraid of the \"vortex\" and tried his best to shout for BYD's platform:</p><p>\"Some speculators in the Chinese market have fired BYD's stock price a little high, and the valuation is so high as a'nosebleed '. If you are a smart venture capitalist, you usually sell half of it, but I won't do it because I like this company.\"</p><p>At that point in time, Bamang did have the rationality to continue to hold it. After all, the DM-i hybrid technology held by BYD at that time had not yet been fully realized.</p><p>Now, the new energy vehicle technology is expected to be implemented, the logic of venture capital has basically been fulfilled, and it has also enjoyed the fattest period of growth stocks. However, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and it is not suitable for continued holding with the logic of value investment.</p><p>In this way, the answer to what choice Munger will make under the current high stock price situation is self-evident.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Really tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fish tail\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReally tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fish tail\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">表外表里</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-20 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Munger vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The preference failed to stand the test.</p><p>According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 225 million shares of BYD were transferred to Citibank on July 11, exactly the same amount as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>BYD's shareholding ratio among the heavyweight stocks at the end of 2021 is the same.</p><p>Tens of billions of positions were moved from the safe to the roadside stall of the vegetable market, just like a \"running\" attitude.</p><p>However, the market seems to have doubts about whether the victim behind this incident is Munger. After all, Munger has always been passionate about BYD, which is obvious to all.</p><p>In 2008, Munger made the third call to Buffett to suggest an investment in 51 years of acquaintance, and the investment target was BYD.</p><p>After cutting into the investment, Munger and Buffett have repeatedly supported BYD on the spot, at shareholder meetings or on social networks.</p><p>For example, when Munger attended the annual meeting of the Daily Journal in 2018, he said: \"BYD is very important and is now an extremely successful company.\"</p><p>In response to the question \"will BYD shares be sold\", he said categorically: Sell BYD? I guess that's not my style, BYD is part of the Munger family and I think I'll take it to my grave.</p><p>Such an \"affectionate\" image, saying that he will change his mind, is somewhat \"unbelievable\". But in the business world, everyone is a fox for thousands of years, so there is no white lotus.</p><p>It can be seen that since he bought it at HK $8 per share in 2008, Munger has held BYD for 14 years, and the return has been nearly 36 times. Might as well return to the investment itself and see if it's time for BYD to sell?</p><p><b>Survived the first high point of venture capital exit, betting on high sales and cashing in</b></p><p>\"When you bet on a company like BYD, you are not just betting on BYD, but betting that something is about to be confirmed.\" At the 2010 annual meeting, Munger explained the logic of investing in BYD.</p><p>The \"something\" he referred to is the underlying logic of early investment in the project-the track, horse, and rider. When it comes to BYD, it is the new energy track, BYD and Wang Chuanfu team.</p><p>In other words, Munger's original intention of investing in BYD was a venture capital.</p><p>Munger's old buddy Buffett praised in an interview in the same year: \"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu is an extraordinary person, and I am very optimistic about their management.\"</p><p>However, whether the vision is accurate or not, in the end, you still have to speak with high returns. Therefore, the exit timing of venture capital is important.</p><p>From the perspective of the technological development stage of Gartner curve, there are two optimal exit points for venture capital:</p><p>The first high point is the overheating period before sliding to the trough, and the second high point is the climbing period before entering the plateau.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e682d0450f3dd4b762988586258a6c87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Referring to this rule, from 2008 to 2010, under the background of hot market expectations for new energy technology, BYD launched the world's first new energy vehicle that does not rely on professional charging stations-the F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle, and the first batch of pure electric vehicles for the public. E6 has become the \"leader\" in the new energy track.</p><p>As a result, its stock price rose from 8 Hong Kong dollars to a peak of 80 Hong Kong dollars, a 10-fold increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639d973144f097be1d3b93575a737200\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, BYD around 2010 was at its first peak-the overheating period before slipping to the trough.</p><p>But Munger did not quit at that time, but continued to hold it. The reason was: BYD focuses on the new energy vehicle market, which is huge, so he has confidence in BYD.</p><p>Luckily, things were indeed betted by him. Ten years later, the new energy vehicle industry shifted from to B to C era, and sales climbed rapidly.</p><p>After several rounds of iterations, BYD's battery technology and hybrid technology have been successfully implemented and realized sales.</p><p>As shown in the figure below, after the launch of BYD Han equipped with blade batteries in 2020, Qin Plus, Song Plus and Tang equipped with DM-i super hybrid models in 2021, sales increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41807d4a798b7b6bf0a84df8fd4af570\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This also means that with the increase in technology adoption and the acceleration of user penetration, BYD is currently heading for its second high point.</p><p>Whether it can reach a high point in the end mainly depends on two aspects: first, whether the company has more possibilities and space; The second is the current market, whether the price is in a relatively mature situation.</p><p>As far as the first condition is concerned, there is currently no clear path for the large-scale application of BYD technology in the short to medium term:</p><p>The highly popular semiconductor sector mainly produces electronic control and industrial chips such as IGBTs and MCUs, and it started late, and its reliability is significantly behind that of major international manufacturers. Higher-order<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving chips and digital cockpit chips have not yet been involved.</p><p>In the mobile phone processing business, although electronic atomization has broken through technical barriers, the market space is small and the landing time is uncertain.</p><p>In this way, the judgment pressure comes to the second condition. So, what is the status of BYD's current stock price?</p><p><b>The logic of venture capital has been fulfilled, and the fattest period of growth stocks has been enjoyed</b></p><p>The data shows that the new energy industry is still in the stage of accelerated penetration. From June 2021 to June 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 14.6% to 27.4%.</p><p>At the same time, BYD's sales have also grown rapidly. In June this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 134,000, ranking first among segmented brands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0363a0dca6360b43082d07202de7defc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, with the huge industry space and its own rapid development, many people think that BYD is undoubtedly the \"best\" growth stock target.</p><p>In the short and medium term, the performance realization is relatively optimistic.</p><p>In the 2021 annual report conference call, the management expected the sales situation in 2022 to be: conservatively estimated sales of 1.5 million vehicles, hitting the annual target of 2 million.</p><p>The logical support for this expectation is:</p><p>BYD is still at the peak of technology realization, and there will be policy stimulus in the second half of the year (new energy vehicles going to the countryside, etc.).</p><p>Previously, sales were restricted by production capacity and failed to be released on a large scale: Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting last month that BYD currently has more than 500,000 orders in hand.</p><p>The company also has a number of reserve models to be delivered, such as the Seal on the e3.0 platform. The order reached 22,600 vehicles within 7 hours of pre-sale. The supplier recently revealed that the current order is about 110,000 vehicles.</p><p>With the commissioning of the new factory (Hefei factory) in the second half of this year, sales will be gradually released.</p><p>Of course, this is only a short-term cash.</p><p>The core of growth stocks is to pay attention to the sustainability of performance realization within a certain period of time. To determine this, it is necessary to find out at what stage the market has responded to BYD's current pricing?</p><p>We dismantled BYD's business composition (as shown in the figure below), and calculated according to the segment valuation method, the corresponding valuation of BYD's auto sector is about 742.5 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9523aebf143684b78bd6050ec35d3c9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) BYD's market value was selected at 2022.7.20, and the average value of A shares and Hong Kong stocks was selected; (2) For battery, mobile phone and semiconductor sectors, the valuation adopts the average recent valuation of securities firms.</p><p>According to such a valuation, we reasonably assume that the net profit rate of BYD's auto board can reach 10%, and assume that the average bicycle revenue in the future is 180,000. Under the condition of giving 10-20 times PE, we can get the market's sales of BYD. It is expected to be 4.12/275/2.06 million vehicles.</p><p>The sales value of 4.12 million vehicles even exceeded the market's sales forecast for 2025. In other words, from a static perspective, the market's current pricing of BYD is overdrawn by sales in the next three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714012c42981478a7604ebbfcc5c6f7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) The valuation assumption is based on the historical PE range of mature car companies; (2) BYD is currently engaged in autonomous driving and intelligence, and has not shown the powerful side of software subscription SaaS. PE will continue traditional car companies; (3) In 2021, BYD's average bicycle revenue will be 148,000. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models, there is a strong certainty that the average bicycle revenue will reach 180,000.</p><p>In the three-year latitude, with dynamic changes in industry prosperity, policies, competitive environment, etc., how certain is BYD's fulfillment?</p><p>Let's calculate and reasonably assume that passenger car sales can reach 25 million in 2025, and BYD's market share corresponding to 4.12 million sales will be 16.5%. (Even with the 2.75 million sales expected under 15 times PE, the corresponding market share exceeds 10%)</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. market, in recent years, there are four automobile manufacturers with a market share of more than 10%, and the probability of achievement is relatively high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1410aeb7dedb883046086ad960d41c2e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, judging from the current Chinese market, since 2013, the changes in the passenger car market share of mainstream domestic car companies show that among the segmented brands, only FAW-Volkswagen has a market share of more than 10% in 2020, and in only one year, Its market share has once again returned to below 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df36cbba4a4aac7e9b47032c4122d2d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve a market share of more than 10% in the domestic market. If you want to quantify BYD's certainty in this area, the probability is about 1/17 with reference to the above changes.</p><p>In addition to the problem of sales realization, the 10% net profit rate optimistically assumed above is actually difficult to achieve.</p><p>Among the most mature automobile manufacturers in the world, only Ford and Volkswagen have each had a year in the past ten years, with a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae86894e7b55e18083aa5896deb9ffe3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As for domestic independent brands, the net profit margin performance is relatively good<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>, in the 16 years from 2005 to 2021, there are 10 years in which the net profit rate exceeds 10%.</p><p>But this was all before 2017, and it was the early dividend of the SUV market. After that, the market competition intensified and the low prosperity of the automobile industry made it difficult to maintain a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p>For other independent brands, the situation that the net profit margin exceeds 10% does not last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278878cf91bf41602fc206626a065512\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on this, according to the most optimistic assumption and referring to historical experience, the probability of BYD's net profit margin exceeding 10%, referring to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>The situation is about 5/8, and the probability that the market share exceeds 10% is 1/17, and the probability that the two items can be cashed out at the same time is only 3.7%.</p><p>In other words, BYD's current pricing already contains a relatively mature state, indicating that it has reached the second high point with a high probability. This means that Munger's venture capital logic has ended, and growth stock investment has also enjoyed the fattest period.</p><p>However, this pricing does not represent the end of investment opportunities. After all, pricing only reflects the eve of the transition from growth to value investing.</p><p><b>The car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and the fishtail stage may not be suitable for value investment</b></p><p>As we all know, the excellent target of value investment is a money-making machine with \"certain input and unlimited output\". The logic of investment is:</p><p>Buying relatively good companies with a certain margin of safety has a long product life cycle, does not require large-scale capital investment, and has low bargaining power of production factors, so they can achieve good profitability.</p><p>So, is BYD such a target?</p><p>As a high-priced consumable, automobiles have a certain service life, especially in China. In addition to meeting the national annual inspection requirements, the reason for car replacement is the demand for car replacement brought about by the improvement of domestic consumption level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35ed93a982b1e550533906a33cdc086\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with this part of the replacement demand, car companies have made every effort to launch new products, gradually forming the rule of \"updating and facelifting every year, replacing and replacing in three years, and technological innovation in five years\".</p><p>Not only that, in the current industry transformation period, the level of new energy and intelligence is upgrading rapidly, driving high R&D investment. Therefore, the R&D expenses of traditional car companies account for 5%-8% of revenue, and new forces account for even more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfba5d8516d9b98eb8c70ce054a83441\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Competition and renewal are required every day, and the product life cycle will not be long, so it is difficult to become a good business in the eyes of value investors.</p><p>However, even if the research and development of the vehicle model successfully enters the mass production process, the update requirements for fixed assets such as production lines are put forward-expanding new production lines and transforming old production lines.</p><p>Munger once said: There are two kinds of businesses in the world, the first one earns 12% of the annual income, and you can take all the profits at the end of the year; The second one also earns 12% a year, but you have to reinvest the money you earn, and then point to all the plant equipment and say to the shareholders: This is your profit.</p><p>Looking at it this way, the situation of BYD or automobile manufacturers is in line with the second type of business.</p><p>And Munger's attitude is: I hate the second business.</p><p>The reason why I am so disgusted may be that this business model requires constant investment of capital, but the ROI is not attractive.</p><p>After all, in the eyes of Munger's old buddy Buffett,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The gross profit margin of 21% is a \"dwarf\" existence compared with a real high-quality enterprise.</p><p>Going back to BYD, it stopped the production of fuel vehicles in March this year, and then focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid businesses.</p><p>This means that if the production capacity expansion plan of new models must be implemented quickly, high capital expenditures will be inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40d12771d271c56eaf640a6bdb04176\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the fixed assets originally dedicated to the production of fuel vehicles face a higher risk of fixed asset impairment, which will also \"eat\" BYD's profits to a certain extent.</p><p>A lot of Capex, D&A is just one aspect, and there is another trouble.</p><p>Car companies do not have much bargaining power when facing labor production factors. (European and American trade unions won't say it, I believe this is common sense)</p><p>It can be seen that with the improvement of the electrification and intelligence level of car companies, the high-end talent structure, and the fading demographic dividend, since 2017, the proportion of employee salaries in car companies' income has continued to rise.</p><p>BYD is no exception. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of its employee salaries will reach 31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ffd0f0e76157d5fddf634cef271d87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this part of rigid expenditure still has the problem that it is difficult to adjust according to the prosperity of the industry-when the prosperity of the industry rises, enterprises may not be able to retain outstanding talents without salary increases, but when the prosperity declines, it is difficult to reduce salaries.</p><p>What this may bring is that the number of employees is increasing, but the per capita benefit has not improved significantly. As shown in the figure below, BYD's per capita net profit in 2021 will fall instead of rising.</p><p>After slimming down, the income statement ended up being very thin. Taking 2021 as an example, the gross profit margin is only 13%, and the net profit margin is less than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6daa6de627ed10ddf122d33b27c2ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Such income performance obviously cannot satisfy the appetite for value investing.</p><p>All in all, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\". Compared with when Munger bought it, the current BYD has no \"36 times return\" story to tell, which may not be suitable for the logic of value investment.</p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p>At the Daily Journal shareholders' meeting at the beginning of last year, Munger was still not afraid of the \"vortex\" and tried his best to shout for BYD's platform:</p><p>\"Some speculators in the Chinese market have fired BYD's stock price a little high, and the valuation is so high as a'nosebleed '. If you are a smart venture capitalist, you usually sell half of it, but I won't do it because I like this company.\"</p><p>At that point in time, Bamang did have the rationality to continue to hold it. After all, the DM-i hybrid technology held by BYD at that time had not yet been fully realized.</p><p>Now, the new energy vehicle technology is expected to be implemented, the logic of venture capital has basically been fulfilled, and it has also enjoyed the fattest period of growth stocks. However, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and it is not suitable for continued holding with the logic of value investment.</p><p>In this way, the answer to what choice Munger will make under the current high stock price situation is self-evident.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-20/doc-imizmscv2813638.shtml\">表外表里</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196365d7f35a249f047d609b02a115b6","relate_stocks":{"BK1540":"电池","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1149":"通信设备","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1515":"抗疫概念","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK1522":"燃料电池","01211":"比亚迪股份","00285":"比亚迪电子","002594":"比亚迪","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1504":"苹果概念","BK1580":"烟草概念","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-20/doc-imizmscv2813638.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196821163","content_text":"芒格对比亚迪的偏爱，没能经得住考验。港交所数据披露，比亚迪2.25亿股于7月11日被转让给花旗银行，数额刚好与伯克希尔2021年底重仓股中的比亚迪持股比例一致。几百亿的仓位，从保险柜里，挪到了菜市场路边摊，俨然一副“跑路”姿态。不过，市场似乎对这起事件背后的事主，是否是芒格存疑。毕竟，芒格一直以来对比亚迪的狂热，有目共睹。2008年，芒格给巴菲特打了认识51年来第3个建议投资的电话，投资标的就是比亚迪。切入投资后，芒格和巴菲特多次在现场、股东大会抑或是社交网络上，为比亚迪站台。比如，2018年芒格参加《每日期刊》（Daily Journal）年会时表示：“比亚迪很重要，现在是一家极其成功的公司。”而针对“会不会抛售比亚迪股票”的问题，他斩钉截铁表示：抛售比亚迪？我想这不是我的风格，比亚迪是芒格家族的一员，我想我会带着它进坟墓。这样一个“深情款款”的形象，说他会变心，多少让人“难以置信”。但商业世界里，大家都是千年的狐狸，哪来什么白莲花啊。可以看到，从2008年以每股8港元买入至今，芒格持有比亚迪14年，回报已近36倍。不妨回归投资本身，看看比亚迪到底是否到了要抛的时候？挺过第一个风投退出高点，赌销量高兑现“当你对像比亚迪这样的企业下注时，不仅仅是在对比亚迪下注，而是在下注赌某样东西即将会被证实。”2010年年会上，芒格如此阐述投资比亚迪的逻辑道。他所说的“某样东西”，正是早期投资对项目的底层逻辑——赛道、马、骑手，因应到比亚迪身上，就是新能源赛道、比亚迪和王传福团队。换句话说，芒格投资比亚迪，初衷是一笔风险投资。芒格的老伙计巴菲特，在同一年的访谈中曾盛赞称：“比亚迪CEO王传福是一个不平凡的人，我很看好他们的管理层。”不过，眼光到底准不准，最终还是要以高回报说话。因此，风险投资的退出时机很重要。从Gartner曲线的技术发展阶段来看，风险投资有两个最佳的退出时点：第一个高点是滑向低谷前的过热期，第二个高点是进入平稳期之前的爬坡期。参照这个规律，2008-2010年，市场对新能源技术预期火热背景下，比亚迪通过推出全球首款不依赖专业充电站的新能源汽车——F3DM双模电动车，以及首批面向大众的纯电动车E6，成了新能源赛道“领头羊”。籍由此，其股价从8港元涨到最高点80港元，翻了10倍。也就是说，2010年左右的比亚迪，处于第一个顶点——滑向低谷前的过热期。但当时的芒格并未退出，而是继续持有，理由是：比亚迪专注于新能源汽车市场，这个市场巨大，所以对比亚迪有信心。运气不错，事情确实被其押中，10年之后新能源汽车行业从to B转入to C时代，销量快速爬坡。比亚迪的电池技术和混动技术经过几轮迭代，相继落地应用成功，兑现销量。如下图，2020年搭载刀片电池的比亚迪汉，2021年搭载DM-i超级混动的秦Plus、宋Plus和唐等车型上市后，销量迅速提升。这也意味着，随着技术采用率的上升和用户渗透的加速，比亚迪目前在走向第二个高点的阶段。而最终能否达到高点，主要看两方面：一是公司是否有更多的可能性和空间；二是现在的市场，是否price in了相对成熟期的态势。就第一个条件来说，目前比亚迪技术的大规模应用方面，短中期没有比较明确的路径：呼声较高的半导体板块，产品主要是IGBT、MCU等电控和工业芯片，且起步较晚，可靠性与国际大厂有明显差距。高阶的智能驾驶芯片和数字座舱芯片，更是尚未涉足。手机代加工业务，虽然电子雾化突破了技术壁垒，但市场空间小，落地时间不确定。如此一来，评判压力来到了第二个条件。那么，比亚迪现在的股价，到底蕴含了什么状态呢？风投逻辑兑现，吃到了成长股最肥美一段数据显示，新能源行业仍处于加速渗透阶段，2021年6月-2022年6月，新能源汽车零售渗透率从14.6%提升到了27.4%。与此同时，比亚迪销量也同步高速增长，今年6月新能源汽车销量13.4万辆，位居细分品牌第一。也就是说，行业空间巨大叠加自身高速发展，很多人觉得比亚迪无疑是“最好”的成长股标的。在当下短中期来看，业绩兑现是相对乐观的。2021年年报电话会议上，管理层预期2022年的销量情况为：保守估计销量150万辆，冲击200万年度目标。这一预期的逻辑支撑有：比亚迪当下仍处于技术兑现的高峰期，且下半年有政策刺激（新能源汽车下乡等）。此前销量受制于产能，未能大规模释放：董事长王传福在上个月的股东大会上透露，目前比亚迪在手订单已超过50万辆。公司还有多款储备车型待交付，比如e3.0平台的海豹，开启预售7小时订单达到2.26万辆，供应商近期透露目前订单大概在11万辆左右。随着今年下半年新工厂（合肥工厂）的投产，销量将逐步释放。当然，这只是短期中的兑现情况。成长股的核心，还要关注一定时间内业绩兑现的持续性。要确定这一点，需要弄清市场对比亚迪当下的定价，反应到了哪个阶段？我们拆解比亚迪的业务构成（如下图），按分部估值法测算得出，比亚迪汽车板块对应的估值约7425亿。备注：（1）比亚迪市值选取时点为2022.7.20，选择了A股和港股的平均值；（2）电池、手机、半导体板块，估值采用券商近期估值平均数。而按照这样的估值，我们合理假设比亚迪汽车板的净利率能够达到10%，并假定未来平均单车收入为18万，在给予10-20倍PE的情况下，可得出市场对比亚迪的销量预期为412/275/206万辆。而412万辆这个销量数值，甚至超过了市场对其2025年的销量预计。也就是说静态看，市场对比亚迪现在的定价，透支的是未来3年的销量。备注：（1）估值假设基于成熟车企的历史PE区间；（2）比亚迪目前在自动驾驶、智能化，并没展现出软件订阅SaaS强大的一面，PE会延续传统车企；（3）2021年比亚迪平均单车收入14.8万，随着中高端车型的推出，平均单车收入达到18万的确定性较强。而拉长到三年的时间纬度中，行业景气度、政策、竞争环境等动态变化，比亚迪的兑现确定性多大呢？我们推算一下，合理假设2025年乘用车销量可达到2500万辆，比亚迪实现412万销量对应的市占率就为16.5%。（即使是15倍PE下的275万销量预期，对应的市占率也超过了10%）从美国市场上来看，最近几年，市占率超过10%的汽车制造商有四家，达成概率较高。但从当下的中国市场来看，2013年至今，国内主流车企乘用车市占率变化显示，细分品牌中只有一汽大众在2020年的市占率超过了10%，且仅一年，其市占率又再次回到10%以下。由此可见，在国内市场想要市占率超过10%，绝非易事。如果要给比亚迪在这一块的确定性定量，概率参考上述变化情况约为1/17。除了销量兑现问题，前文乐观假设的10%净利率，事实上也很难实现。那些全球最成熟的汽车制造商，最近十几年里，只有福特、大众各有一年，毛利率超过10%。而国内自主品牌，净利率表现相对较好的是长城汽车，2005-2021的16年里，净利率超过10%的有10年。但这都是2017年以前，吃得是SUV市场早期红利。之后，市场竞争加剧叠加汽车行业低景气度，10%以上的毛利率难以维持。其他自主品牌，净利率超过10%的情况，也都不持续。基于此，按照最乐观假设，参考历史经验，比亚迪净利率超过10%的概率，参考长城汽车的情况约为5/8，而市占率超过10%的概率又为1/17，可得两项同时兑现的概率只有3.7%。也就是说，比亚迪目前的定价里已经蕴含到了相对成熟的状态，说明大概率到达了第二个高点。这意味着芒格的风险投资逻辑已经结束了，成长股投资也已经吃到了最肥美的一段。不过，这个定价并不代表投资机会终结，毕竟定价，只是反映「成长到价值投资」过渡的前夕。汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，鱼尾阶段或不适合价值投资众所周知，价值投资的优秀标的，是“投入一定，产出无限大”的赚钱机器，投资的逻辑为：以一定的安全边际买入相对好的企业，它们的产品生命周期长，不需要做大规模的资本性投入，且生产要素议价权低，因此能够实现良好的盈利水平。那么，比亚迪是这样的标的吗？汽车作为一种高价消耗品，是有一定的使用年限的，而在中国使用年限尤其短。换车原因除了满足国家年检要求外，还有随着国内消费水平的提升，带来的换车需求。面对这部分更换需求，车企们纷纷卯足了劲儿推出新产品，逐渐形成了“每年更新改款，3年换代更迭，5年技术大革新”的行规。不仅如此，在当下的行业转型期，新能源和智能化的水平升级迅速，推动研发投入居高不下，因此传统车企的研发费用占收入比达5%-8%，新势力则更甚。天天要求竞争和更新，产品寿命周期就会不长久，因而难以成为价值投资者眼中的好生意。然而，即便车型研发成功进入量产环节，对生产线等固定资产也提出了更新要求——扩建新产线，改造旧产线。芒格曾说过：世界上有两种生意，第一种每年赚12%的收益，年末你可以拿走所有利润；第二种每年也赚12%，但你不得不把赚来的钱重新投资，然后指着所有的厂房设备对股东们说：这就是你们的利润。这么看的话，比亚迪或者说汽车制造企业的情况，正符合第二种生意。而芒格的态度是：我恨第二种生意。之所以会如此厌恶，或许在于这种生意模式，要不停投入资本，但ROI并不诱人。毕竟在芒格老伙计巴菲特眼里，通用汽车21%的毛利率与真正的优质企业相比，都是“相形见绌”的存在。回到比亚迪身上，其今年3月起停止了燃油车整车生产，之后专注于纯电和插电混动业务。这意味着，新车型的产能扩建计划要快速落实，那么高额资本支出就难以避免。而原先燃油车生产专用的固定资产，则面临较高的固定资产减值风险，这一定程度也会“吃掉”比亚迪的利润。大量Capex、D&A只是一方面，还有另一方面麻烦。车企在面对劳动生产要素时，并没太多议价权。（欧美工会就不说，相信这是一个常识）可以看到，随着车企的电动化、智能化水平提升，人才结构高端化以及人口红利消退等综合作用下，2017年以来，车企员工薪酬占收入比例，持续上升。比亚迪也不例外，2021年其职工薪酬同比增速达到31%。而这部分刚性支出，还有着难以根据行业景气度进行调整的问题——行业景气度上升时，企业不加薪可能无法留住优秀人才，而景气度下行时，降薪却难以落地。如此可能带来的是，职工人数规模在增长，但人均效益却并没有明显提升。如下图，比亚迪2021年的人均创造净利润，不升反降。一通瘦身下来，利润表最终十分单薄，以2021年为例，毛利率仅为13%，净利率不足2%。这样的收益表现，显然满足不了价值投资的胃口。总而言之，汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，当下的比亚迪与芒格买入时相比，已没有“36倍回报”的故事可讲，可能并不适合价值投资逻辑。小结去年初的Daily Journal股东大会上，芒格还在不惧“旋涡”，极力为比亚迪站台呐喊：“中国市场的一些投机者把比亚迪的股价炒得有点高，估值高到‘流鼻血’的地步。如果是聪明的风险投资者，通常会卖出一半，但是我不会这样做，因为喜欢这家公司。”站在那个时点，巴芒确实有继续持有的合理性，毕竟彼时比亚迪手握的DM-i混动技术，还没有完全兑现。而现在，新能源汽车技术预期落地，风投逻辑基本兑现，也吃到了成长股最肥美的一段。但汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，并不适合以价值投资的逻辑继续持有。如此一来，在当下的高位股价情况下，芒格会做什么样的选择，答案不言而喻。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.9,"01211":0.9,"00285":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899281813,"gmtCreate":1628200434232,"gmtModify":1703502870128,"author":{"id":"4090641541997090","authorId":"4090641541997090","name":"MM2021MM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b938c94992946771441f930457a55fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090641541997090","authorIdStr":"4090641541997090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899281813","repostId":"1160328223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262681714044976,"gmtCreate":1705165464199,"gmtModify":1705165465881,"author":{"id":"4090641541997090","authorId":"4090641541997090","name":"MM2021MM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b938c94992946771441f930457a55fc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090641541997090","authorIdStr":"4090641541997090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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good.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255768002670712","repostId":"248312805347464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":248312805347464,"gmtCreate":1701660745864,"gmtModify":1703059991513,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. 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