不死鸟. personal page - To The Moon

不死鸟.

不死鸟.

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2024-02-02

2022-10-08

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2023-06-16

👍👍👍👍👍👍

2022-02-13

nice

Credit Suisse Entities Agree to Settle Lawsuit in U.S. for $81 Million - court filing

2022-01-28

ok,thanks

提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览

2022-03-26

thanks for sharing👍

What Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？

2023-01-17

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2022-09-04

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港股继续低位拉锯，逆向思维布局长期

2022-06-12

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2022-04-01

$苹果(AAPL)$200

2022-04-27

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今年大涨近12%！这个板块行情还能火多久？

2022-04-24

thans for info

Netflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming

2022-02-24

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2022-02-17

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外媒头条 | 地缘风险引发变天！加息力度预期下降

2022-02-06

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中信证券：春节假期海外市场的喜与忧

2022-01-28

go and play

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022

2022-01-05

power,💪👍

明年，比亚迪超越特斯拉？

2023-01-15

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2022-10-19

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2022-06-19

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to agree to settle, the law firm Cohen Milstein Sellers &amp; Toll PLLC said in a release.</p><p>&#34;This first settlement agreement includes both an $81 million cash payment and an obligation on the part of Credit Suisse to provide cooperation to plaintiffs in litigating and ultimately trying their case against the remaining defendants,&#34; lawyers for the plaintiffs said in a court filing late on Friday.</p><p>The plaintiffs had accused units of Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc   , JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co    and three other banks of conspiring since 2009 to keep the stock lending market &#34;in the stone age&#34; by boycotting startup platforms like AQS or Data Explorers. They accused the banks of doing this in order to charge excessive fees to investors.</p><p>Credit Suisse said in a statement that it believed that the plaintiffs&#39; claims were without merit but &#34;we are pleased to resolve the litigation.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse Entities Agree to Settle Lawsuit in U.S. for $81 Million - court filing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse Entities Agree to Settle Lawsuit in U.S. for $81 Million - court filing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-13 07:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG entities, among six defendants in a lawsuit originally filed by Iowa Public Employees Retirement System and other retirement associations, has agreed to pay $81 million, the first to agree to settle, the law firm Cohen Milstein Sellers &amp; Toll PLLC said in a release.</p><p>&#34;This first settlement agreement includes both an $81 million cash payment and an obligation on the part of Credit Suisse to provide cooperation to plaintiffs in litigating and ultimately trying their case against the remaining defendants,&#34; lawyers for the plaintiffs said in a court filing late on Friday.</p><p>The plaintiffs had accused units of Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc   , JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co    and three other banks of conspiring since 2009 to keep the stock lending market &#34;in the stone age&#34; by boycotting startup platforms like AQS or Data Explorers. They accused the banks of doing this in order to charge excessive fees to investors.</p><p>Credit Suisse said in a statement that it believed that the plaintiffs&#39; claims were without merit but &#34;we are pleased to resolve the litigation.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4207":"综合性银行","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211246925","content_text":"WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG entities, among six defendants in a lawsuit originally filed by Iowa Public Employees Retirement System and other retirement associations, has agreed to pay $81 million, the first to agree to settle, the law firm Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll PLLC said in a release.\"This first settlement agreement includes both an $81 million cash payment and an obligation on the part of Credit Suisse to provide cooperation to plaintiffs in litigating and ultimately trying their case against the remaining defendants,\" lawyers for the plaintiffs said in a court filing late on Friday.The plaintiffs had accused units of Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc   , JPMorgan Chase & Co    and three other banks of conspiring since 2009 to keep the stock lending market \"in the stone age\" by boycotting startup platforms like AQS or Data Explorers. They accused the banks of doing this in order to charge excessive fees to investors.Credit Suisse said in a statement that it believed that the plaintiffs' claims were without merit but \"we are pleased to resolve the litigation.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099405738,"gmtCreate":1643407298256,"gmtModify":1676533816258,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok,thanks","listText":"ok,thanks","text":"ok,thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099405738","repostId":"1121905464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121905464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642411108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121905464?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-01-17 17:18","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。</p><p>2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。</p><p><b>美股：</b></p><p>照常开市。</p><p><b>A股：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。</p><p><b>澳股：</b></p><p>照常开市。</p><p><b>新加坡市场：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。</p><p>2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。</p><p><b>沪股通、深股通：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。</p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。</p><p>2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。</p><p><b>美股：</b></p><p>照常开市。</p><p><b>A股：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。</p><p><b>澳股：</b></p><p>照常开市。</p><p><b>新加坡市场：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。</p><p>2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。</p><p><b>沪股通、深股通：</b></p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。</p><p>2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010184466,"gmtCreate":1648289159582,"gmtModify":1676534325789,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing👍","listText":"thanks for sharing👍","text":"thanks for sharing👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010184466","repostId":"1111363520","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111363520","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648252161,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111363520?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-03-26 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111363520","media":"investorplace","summary":"MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconduc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconductor stocks. This new acronym, a riff on the Nasdaq Composite’s top-performing FAANG tech stocks, is generating interest. So what are the MANGO stocks and what else do you need to know?</p><p>Like the fruit, MANGO stocks have provided sweet returns for investors recently. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya suggests this group of chip stocks — Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) and ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) — could be leaders in the future economy. Notably, this analyst believes that these chip stocks can outperform despite various market concerns right now.</p><p>Finding a group of stocks that is able to weather this current environment is what many investors are after. Indeed, there is an impressive amount of uncertainty weighing on Wall Street right now. Investors are concerned with inflation, interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions and supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>The semiconductor sector is exposed to these issues. However, there are reasons why analysts are growing increasingly bullish on these stocks.</p><p>Let’s dive into what investors may want to consider with chip stocks right now.</p><h2>Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform</h2><p>Despite the impacts of the pandemic and supply chain woes on chip makers, the Bank of America analyst believes there is reason to be bullish on MANGO stocks. This is because demand has been increasing for chips for some time, and the underlying technology is improving. Assuming these tailwinds remain in place, MANGO stocks could be key winners.</p><p>Additionally, Arya sees a few other things to like about chip stocks. Many of the names in the MANGO acronym have ties to the cloud and artificial intelligence. Others are in the electric vehicle space.</p><p>Most investors can wrap their heads around this rather easy-to-understand thesis. While semiconductor stocks have struggled this year, the for this sector remain bright. Thus, MANGO stocks are the new tech grouping investors may want to keep on their radar right now.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconductor stocks. This new acronym, a riff on the Nasdaq Composite’s top-performing FAANG tech stocks, is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ON":"安森美半导体","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","NVDA":"英伟达","ADI":"亚德诺","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","AVGO":"博通","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111363520","content_text":"MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconductor stocks. This new acronym, a riff on the Nasdaq Composite’s top-performing FAANG tech stocks, is generating interest. So what are the MANGO stocks and what else do you need to know?Like the fruit, MANGO stocks have provided sweet returns for investors recently. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya suggests this group of chip stocks — Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) and ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) — could be leaders in the future economy. Notably, this analyst believes that these chip stocks can outperform despite various market concerns right now.Finding a group of stocks that is able to weather this current environment is what many investors are after. Indeed, there is an impressive amount of uncertainty weighing on Wall Street right now. Investors are concerned with inflation, interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions and supply chain bottlenecks.The semiconductor sector is exposed to these issues. However, there are reasons why analysts are growing increasingly bullish on these stocks.Let’s dive into what investors may want to consider with chip stocks right now.Why MANGO Stocks Could OutperformDespite the impacts of the pandemic and supply chain woes on chip makers, the Bank of America analyst believes there is reason to be bullish on MANGO stocks. This is because demand has been increasing for chips for some time, and the underlying technology is improving. Assuming these tailwinds remain in place, MANGO stocks could be key winners.Additionally, Arya sees a few other things to like about chip stocks. Many of the names in the MANGO acronym have ties to the cloud and artificial intelligence. Others are in the electric vehicle space.Most investors can wrap their heads around this rather easy-to-understand thesis. While semiconductor stocks have struggled this year, the for this sector remain bright. Thus, MANGO stocks are the new tech grouping investors may want to keep on their radar right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956682793,"gmtCreate":1673994489312,"gmtModify":1676538912875,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956682793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933146157,"gmtCreate":1662255295879,"gmtModify":1676537024686,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933146157","repostId":"1179759462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179759462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1662172317,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179759462?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-03 10:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股继续低位拉锯，逆向思维布局长期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179759462","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"一、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>一、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯</b></p><p>3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。</p><p><b>二、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战</b></p><p>——经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善。自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。</p><p>——中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险。</p><p>——关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机。8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。</p><p>——联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。</p><p><b>三、投资策略：防守反击</b></p><ul><li><p>主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。</p></li><li><p>主线二、困境改善。等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。</p></li><li><p>主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。</p><p>风险提示：全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策不达预期；大国博弈风险</p></li></ul><p><b>报告正文</b></p><p><b>1、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯</b></p><p><b>3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。</b></p><ul><li><p>3月16日《“非理性下跌”及找寻“自信的力量”》建议投资者可以乐观一点，淡化“市场先生”的短期癫狂，多看投资的本质——企业长期价值。</p></li><li><p>5月3日《乍暖还寒，战略相持阶段有望展开》判断市场整体基调转“暖”：“对中国基本面预期过度悲观的阶段5月份有望过去，信心逐步恢复”，“还寒”层面强调海外市场的调整压力：“美股中期可能重演‘2018年四季度’”。指出“基于病毒变异的高传播性，统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展面临比2020年更大的挑战”。</p></li><li><p>6月2日《港股战略相持期打好“游击战”》明确“3月份港股市场的底部，基于政治经济估值多因素，基本可以确认为市场底，过去一年多的系统性风险释放基本结束”，中期中国经济、上市公司业绩复苏的趋势可以期待，看好中期战略性布局机会。同时指出：“港股经历过去一年多的熊市摧残，信心的重建尚需时日，行情很难势如破竹、一蹴而就”。</p></li><li><p>7月12日《动荡的世界，底部拉锯的港股如何布局》）指出“疫情反复之下，短期市场信心难提振”。</p></li><li><p>8月3日《乱中取胜，做多中国先进制造业》指出“港股市场仍将在底部区域拉锯，但是，系统性风险不大”。</p></li></ul><p><b>2、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战</b></p><p><b>2.1、经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善</b></p><p>自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abcef7f945380bcf6ed756c9a5d8be0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.2、中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险</b></p><p>3月以来恒指的风险溢价一直居高不下，无论是以10年期美债收益率还是10年期中国国债收益率衡量的风险溢价都高于2011年以来均值以上两倍标准差。中概股退市风险是影响港股风险偏好的重要原因之一，尤其是互联网公司多为港美两地上市，投资者担忧从美股大量退市引发流动性冲击。</p><p>“中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。”根据中国证监会有关负责人答记者问，“如果后续合作可以满足各自监管需求，则有望解决中概股审计监管问题，从而避免自美被动退市”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fda8837eeb214c2177d52e76902924\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.3、关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机</b></p><p><b>7-8月经济数据显示经济复苏力度乏力，政策将继续发力稳固经济。</b>8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。</p><p><b>政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。</b>7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。1-7月累计利润同比增速来看，电气设备为18%；汽车为-14%，较前值1-6月的-25%显著改善。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc2a262d06343072f542412d614caf0\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。</b>8月19日，交易商协会再次召集多家民营房企召开座谈会，探讨通过中债增进公司增信支持的方式支持民营房企发债融资。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc39ce31facf981686ad65e0f1417c9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.4、联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日</b></p><p><b>0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，验证了我们此前的判断：“通胀换衰退，实为政策窘境”。</b>会上鲍威尔重点强调价格不稳定的代价，将比高利率带来增长放缓、劳动力市场疲软的代价更高；特别是对70年代历史经验的总结，“沃尔克时刻”重现。</p><p>联储转向尚需时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d860c5515574a2809997e8b27e9993\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3、投资策略：防守反击</b></p><p><b>主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。</b>以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。</p><ul><li><p><b>电力运营商</b>：在收益率和电价的深度担忧下，绿电板块估值经历了显著回调，近期也有事件显示出对行业恶性竞争的“纠偏”。在板块经历深度压制后，近期，三部委成立可再生能源结算公司，电网牵头融资解决补贴缺口。作为绿电行业下半年重要催化之一，补贴问的解决有望增加行业再投资能力。诚然，收益率问题短期难得到解决，但当前板块股价具备足够安全边际，看好装机带来量增的成长性。</p></li><li><p><b>风电</b>：风电企业陆续披露半年报，显示上半年疫情和原材料价格居高导致产能吃紧，盈利承压。当前估值回落至历史低点，下半年开工、原材料价格将双双迎来改善，盈利有望迎来修复，推荐成本控制及传导能力较好的企业。</p></li><li><p><b>新能源车产业链</b>: 重点车企近期销量数据超预期，年内多款新能源车型即将推出。投资方面把握：受益本轮刺激政策，下半年销量规模及盈利能力有望实现快速提升的新能源及传统车企，以及电动化及智能化趋势推动产品升级下，相关零部件的机会。</p></li></ul><p><b>主线二、困境改善。</b>等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。</p><ul><li><p><b>互联网</b>：中概股退市担忧缓解、监管环境确定性提升下，行业股价波动性有望下降。互联网已从新经济转向成熟业态，短期注重业绩，当下互联网板块股价隐含的对短期复苏的预期相对悲观，若疫情防控压力缓解、经济复苏边际转好，股价也有弹性。中期基于二次增长曲线有望迎来分化的机会，比如与云计算、自动驾驶等。</p></li><li><p><b>物业管理</b>：从公司治理和业务经营层面，物管公司和地产公司仍关连度较高，物管板块目前尚不能走出独立行情，地产板块企稳是物管板块修复的重要前提。地产板块一旦稳住，物管公司有更好的业务成长性，更安全的财务状态，估值将会有更大的弹性。我们看好经营独立性高、内生增长能力强、盈利质量佳的物管公司。</p></li><li><p><b>食品饮料</b>：啤酒、乳业为代表的食品饮料整体板块受益于消费复苏的趋势延续，以及粮价等成本压力边际缓解。此外，啤酒方面，今年夏季的炎热天气带动Q3啤酒消费高速增长，有望在后续财报中兑现。</p></li><li><p><b>医药</b>：继续看好“药品+上游+消费医疗”。（兴业证券医药团队）</p><p>药品板块看好理由包括：仿制药集采影响已逐渐见底、创新药供给端有望诞生新的爆品（ADC、寡核苷酸、自免等）、创新药逐步开始商业化且国内平台价值显现（例如近期赛诺菲和信达生物的合作）、国内公司全球竞争力逐步提升。上游：该赛道较多公司业绩下半年有望加速，且自主可控逻辑有望促使估值提升。消费医疗领域，当前景气度维持、长期逻辑看好。短期受种植牙集采等因素干扰板块情绪，处于阶段性调整期，调整积蓄向上动能。</p></li></ul><p><b>主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。</b>立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。</p><ul><li><p><b>国企地产股</b>：目前行业处于政策不断放松到新房销售复苏的真空期，但是展望下半年以及明年的市场可能的两种情况：1）新房销售复苏，政策放松的效应将持续；2）新房销售复苏不及预期，进一步的放松政策将持续推出，直到市场复苏。在两种情况下，房地产的系统性风险会解除，风险房企继续出清，民企地产公司既没有意愿也没有能力加杠杆，而能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企地产公司将受益复苏的市场。</p></li><li><p><b>国企能源股</b>：从博弈周期波动，转向配置高分红、价值股龙头。1）传统能源龙头的利润稳定性相对抬升。能源结构转变大背景下，传统能源的新增供给更加克制。地缘政治冲突风险提升，本就紧平衡的供需关系变得更加脆弱，能源价格波动中枢将较过去30年提升。2）企业资本开支降低，可用于分红的比例大幅提高，估值体系从周期股走向价值股，类债券的配置属性凸显。</p></li><li><p><b>金融</b>：经济预期偏弱+房企风险抬头+社融趋势承压下，金融板块估值经历显著回调，港股金融板块股息率重新回到较高吸引力的位置，后续随着经济预期改善，行业的悲观预期有望迎来缓解。</p></li><li><p><b>交运</b>：出入境政策变化，跨省游熔断政策松绑，高分红的交运龙头迎来业绩改善契机。海关总署将于8月31日零时启用第九版《中华人民共和国出／入境健康申明卡》。第九版最为明显的变化是，取消了对出入境人员核酸检测信息、既往感染情况、疫苗接种日期的申报要求。文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳8月24日在发布会上表示：“根据疫情防控形势，我们动态调整文化和旅游场所的开放政策，并将跨省团队旅游“熔断”区域进一步精准到县域”。</p></li><li><p><b>建材</b>：地产后周期“下”有底，基本面筑底，不宜过度悲观；上半年大力发放的专项债有望在下半年形成基建实物工作量，下半年基建有弹性。关注股价处于底部、“现金牛”真价值的建材龙头。</p><p><b>4、风险提示</b></p></li></ul><p>全球经济增速下行、中、美货币政策不达预期、大国博弈风险。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股继续低位拉锯，逆向思维布局长期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-03 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>一、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯</b></p><p>3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。</p><p><b>二、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战</b></p><p>——经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善。自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。</p><p>——中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险。</p><p>——关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机。8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。</p><p>——联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。</p><p><b>三、投资策略：防守反击</b></p><ul><li><p>主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。</p></li><li><p>主线二、困境改善。等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。</p></li><li><p>主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。</p><p>风险提示：全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策不达预期；大国博弈风险</p></li></ul><p><b>报告正文</b></p><p><b>1、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯</b></p><p><b>3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。</b></p><ul><li><p>3月16日《“非理性下跌”及找寻“自信的力量”》建议投资者可以乐观一点，淡化“市场先生”的短期癫狂，多看投资的本质——企业长期价值。</p></li><li><p>5月3日《乍暖还寒，战略相持阶段有望展开》判断市场整体基调转“暖”：“对中国基本面预期过度悲观的阶段5月份有望过去，信心逐步恢复”，“还寒”层面强调海外市场的调整压力：“美股中期可能重演‘2018年四季度’”。指出“基于病毒变异的高传播性，统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展面临比2020年更大的挑战”。</p></li><li><p>6月2日《港股战略相持期打好“游击战”》明确“3月份港股市场的底部，基于政治经济估值多因素，基本可以确认为市场底，过去一年多的系统性风险释放基本结束”，中期中国经济、上市公司业绩复苏的趋势可以期待，看好中期战略性布局机会。同时指出：“港股经历过去一年多的熊市摧残，信心的重建尚需时日，行情很难势如破竹、一蹴而就”。</p></li><li><p>7月12日《动荡的世界，底部拉锯的港股如何布局》）指出“疫情反复之下，短期市场信心难提振”。</p></li><li><p>8月3日《乱中取胜，做多中国先进制造业》指出“港股市场仍将在底部区域拉锯，但是，系统性风险不大”。</p></li></ul><p><b>2、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战</b></p><p><b>2.1、经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善</b></p><p>自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abcef7f945380bcf6ed756c9a5d8be0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.2、中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险</b></p><p>3月以来恒指的风险溢价一直居高不下，无论是以10年期美债收益率还是10年期中国国债收益率衡量的风险溢价都高于2011年以来均值以上两倍标准差。中概股退市风险是影响港股风险偏好的重要原因之一，尤其是互联网公司多为港美两地上市，投资者担忧从美股大量退市引发流动性冲击。</p><p>“中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。”根据中国证监会有关负责人答记者问，“如果后续合作可以满足各自监管需求，则有望解决中概股审计监管问题，从而避免自美被动退市”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fda8837eeb214c2177d52e76902924\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.3、关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机</b></p><p><b>7-8月经济数据显示经济复苏力度乏力，政策将继续发力稳固经济。</b>8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。</p><p><b>政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。</b>7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。1-7月累计利润同比增速来看，电气设备为18%；汽车为-14%，较前值1-6月的-25%显著改善。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc2a262d06343072f542412d614caf0\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。</b>8月19日，交易商协会再次召集多家民营房企召开座谈会，探讨通过中债增进公司增信支持的方式支持民营房企发债融资。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc39ce31facf981686ad65e0f1417c9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.4、联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日</b></p><p><b>0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，验证了我们此前的判断：“通胀换衰退，实为政策窘境”。</b>会上鲍威尔重点强调价格不稳定的代价，将比高利率带来增长放缓、劳动力市场疲软的代价更高；特别是对70年代历史经验的总结，“沃尔克时刻”重现。</p><p>联储转向尚需时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d860c5515574a2809997e8b27e9993\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3、投资策略：防守反击</b></p><p><b>主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。</b>以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。</p><ul><li><p><b>电力运营商</b>：在收益率和电价的深度担忧下，绿电板块估值经历了显著回调，近期也有事件显示出对行业恶性竞争的“纠偏”。在板块经历深度压制后，近期，三部委成立可再生能源结算公司，电网牵头融资解决补贴缺口。作为绿电行业下半年重要催化之一，补贴问的解决有望增加行业再投资能力。诚然，收益率问题短期难得到解决，但当前板块股价具备足够安全边际，看好装机带来量增的成长性。</p></li><li><p><b>风电</b>：风电企业陆续披露半年报，显示上半年疫情和原材料价格居高导致产能吃紧，盈利承压。当前估值回落至历史低点，下半年开工、原材料价格将双双迎来改善，盈利有望迎来修复，推荐成本控制及传导能力较好的企业。</p></li><li><p><b>新能源车产业链</b>: 重点车企近期销量数据超预期，年内多款新能源车型即将推出。投资方面把握：受益本轮刺激政策，下半年销量规模及盈利能力有望实现快速提升的新能源及传统车企，以及电动化及智能化趋势推动产品升级下，相关零部件的机会。</p></li></ul><p><b>主线二、困境改善。</b>等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。</p><ul><li><p><b>互联网</b>：中概股退市担忧缓解、监管环境确定性提升下，行业股价波动性有望下降。互联网已从新经济转向成熟业态，短期注重业绩，当下互联网板块股价隐含的对短期复苏的预期相对悲观，若疫情防控压力缓解、经济复苏边际转好，股价也有弹性。中期基于二次增长曲线有望迎来分化的机会，比如与云计算、自动驾驶等。</p></li><li><p><b>物业管理</b>：从公司治理和业务经营层面，物管公司和地产公司仍关连度较高，物管板块目前尚不能走出独立行情，地产板块企稳是物管板块修复的重要前提。地产板块一旦稳住，物管公司有更好的业务成长性，更安全的财务状态，估值将会有更大的弹性。我们看好经营独立性高、内生增长能力强、盈利质量佳的物管公司。</p></li><li><p><b>食品饮料</b>：啤酒、乳业为代表的食品饮料整体板块受益于消费复苏的趋势延续，以及粮价等成本压力边际缓解。此外，啤酒方面，今年夏季的炎热天气带动Q3啤酒消费高速增长，有望在后续财报中兑现。</p></li><li><p><b>医药</b>：继续看好“药品+上游+消费医疗”。（兴业证券医药团队）</p><p>药品板块看好理由包括：仿制药集采影响已逐渐见底、创新药供给端有望诞生新的爆品（ADC、寡核苷酸、自免等）、创新药逐步开始商业化且国内平台价值显现（例如近期赛诺菲和信达生物的合作）、国内公司全球竞争力逐步提升。上游：该赛道较多公司业绩下半年有望加速，且自主可控逻辑有望促使估值提升。消费医疗领域，当前景气度维持、长期逻辑看好。短期受种植牙集采等因素干扰板块情绪，处于阶段性调整期，调整积蓄向上动能。</p></li></ul><p><b>主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。</b>立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。</p><ul><li><p><b>国企地产股</b>：目前行业处于政策不断放松到新房销售复苏的真空期，但是展望下半年以及明年的市场可能的两种情况：1）新房销售复苏，政策放松的效应将持续；2）新房销售复苏不及预期，进一步的放松政策将持续推出，直到市场复苏。在两种情况下，房地产的系统性风险会解除，风险房企继续出清，民企地产公司既没有意愿也没有能力加杠杆，而能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企地产公司将受益复苏的市场。</p></li><li><p><b>国企能源股</b>：从博弈周期波动，转向配置高分红、价值股龙头。1）传统能源龙头的利润稳定性相对抬升。能源结构转变大背景下，传统能源的新增供给更加克制。地缘政治冲突风险提升，本就紧平衡的供需关系变得更加脆弱，能源价格波动中枢将较过去30年提升。2）企业资本开支降低，可用于分红的比例大幅提高，估值体系从周期股走向价值股，类债券的配置属性凸显。</p></li><li><p><b>金融</b>：经济预期偏弱+房企风险抬头+社融趋势承压下，金融板块估值经历显著回调，港股金融板块股息率重新回到较高吸引力的位置，后续随着经济预期改善，行业的悲观预期有望迎来缓解。</p></li><li><p><b>交运</b>：出入境政策变化，跨省游熔断政策松绑，高分红的交运龙头迎来业绩改善契机。海关总署将于8月31日零时启用第九版《中华人民共和国出／入境健康申明卡》。第九版最为明显的变化是，取消了对出入境人员核酸检测信息、既往感染情况、疫苗接种日期的申报要求。文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳8月24日在发布会上表示：“根据疫情防控形势，我们动态调整文化和旅游场所的开放政策，并将跨省团队旅游“熔断”区域进一步精准到县域”。</p></li><li><p><b>建材</b>：地产后周期“下”有底，基本面筑底，不宜过度悲观；上半年大力发放的专项债有望在下半年形成基建实物工作量，下半年基建有弹性。关注股价处于底部、“现金牛”真价值的建材龙头。</p><p><b>4、风险提示</b></p></li></ul><p>全球经济增速下行、中、美货币政策不达预期、大国博弈风险。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179759462","content_text":"一、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。二、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战——经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善。自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。——中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险。——关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机。8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。——联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。三、投资策略：防守反击主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。主线二、困境改善。等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。风险提示：全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策不达预期；大国博弈风险报告正文1、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。3月16日《“非理性下跌”及找寻“自信的力量”》建议投资者可以乐观一点，淡化“市场先生”的短期癫狂，多看投资的本质——企业长期价值。5月3日《乍暖还寒，战略相持阶段有望展开》判断市场整体基调转“暖”：“对中国基本面预期过度悲观的阶段5月份有望过去，信心逐步恢复”，“还寒”层面强调海外市场的调整压力：“美股中期可能重演‘2018年四季度’”。指出“基于病毒变异的高传播性，统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展面临比2020年更大的挑战”。6月2日《港股战略相持期打好“游击战”》明确“3月份港股市场的底部，基于政治经济估值多因素，基本可以确认为市场底，过去一年多的系统性风险释放基本结束”，中期中国经济、上市公司业绩复苏的趋势可以期待，看好中期战略性布局机会。同时指出：“港股经历过去一年多的熊市摧残，信心的重建尚需时日，行情很难势如破竹、一蹴而就”。7月12日《动荡的世界，底部拉锯的港股如何布局》）指出“疫情反复之下，短期市场信心难提振”。8月3日《乱中取胜，做多中国先进制造业》指出“港股市场仍将在底部区域拉锯，但是，系统性风险不大”。2、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战2.1、经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。2.2、中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险3月以来恒指的风险溢价一直居高不下，无论是以10年期美债收益率还是10年期中国国债收益率衡量的风险溢价都高于2011年以来均值以上两倍标准差。中概股退市风险是影响港股风险偏好的重要原因之一，尤其是互联网公司多为港美两地上市，投资者担忧从美股大量退市引发流动性冲击。“中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。”根据中国证监会有关负责人答记者问，“如果后续合作可以满足各自监管需求，则有望解决中概股审计监管问题，从而避免自美被动退市”。2.3、关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机7-8月经济数据显示经济复苏力度乏力，政策将继续发力稳固经济。8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。1-7月累计利润同比增速来看，电气设备为18%；汽车为-14%，较前值1-6月的-25%显著改善。房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。8月19日，交易商协会再次召集多家民营房企召开座谈会，探讨通过中债增进公司增信支持的方式支持民营房企发债融资。2.4、联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，验证了我们此前的判断：“通胀换衰退，实为政策窘境”。会上鲍威尔重点强调价格不稳定的代价，将比高利率带来增长放缓、劳动力市场疲软的代价更高；特别是对70年代历史经验的总结，“沃尔克时刻”重现。联储转向尚需时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。3、投资策略：防守反击主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。电力运营商：在收益率和电价的深度担忧下，绿电板块估值经历了显著回调，近期也有事件显示出对行业恶性竞争的“纠偏”。在板块经历深度压制后，近期，三部委成立可再生能源结算公司，电网牵头融资解决补贴缺口。作为绿电行业下半年重要催化之一，补贴问的解决有望增加行业再投资能力。诚然，收益率问题短期难得到解决，但当前板块股价具备足够安全边际，看好装机带来量增的成长性。风电：风电企业陆续披露半年报，显示上半年疫情和原材料价格居高导致产能吃紧，盈利承压。当前估值回落至历史低点，下半年开工、原材料价格将双双迎来改善，盈利有望迎来修复，推荐成本控制及传导能力较好的企业。新能源车产业链: 重点车企近期销量数据超预期，年内多款新能源车型即将推出。投资方面把握：受益本轮刺激政策，下半年销量规模及盈利能力有望实现快速提升的新能源及传统车企，以及电动化及智能化趋势推动产品升级下，相关零部件的机会。主线二、困境改善。等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。互联网：中概股退市担忧缓解、监管环境确定性提升下，行业股价波动性有望下降。互联网已从新经济转向成熟业态，短期注重业绩，当下互联网板块股价隐含的对短期复苏的预期相对悲观，若疫情防控压力缓解、经济复苏边际转好，股价也有弹性。中期基于二次增长曲线有望迎来分化的机会，比如与云计算、自动驾驶等。物业管理：从公司治理和业务经营层面，物管公司和地产公司仍关连度较高，物管板块目前尚不能走出独立行情，地产板块企稳是物管板块修复的重要前提。地产板块一旦稳住，物管公司有更好的业务成长性，更安全的财务状态，估值将会有更大的弹性。我们看好经营独立性高、内生增长能力强、盈利质量佳的物管公司。食品饮料：啤酒、乳业为代表的食品饮料整体板块受益于消费复苏的趋势延续，以及粮价等成本压力边际缓解。此外，啤酒方面，今年夏季的炎热天气带动Q3啤酒消费高速增长，有望在后续财报中兑现。医药：继续看好“药品+上游+消费医疗”。（兴业证券医药团队）药品板块看好理由包括：仿制药集采影响已逐渐见底、创新药供给端有望诞生新的爆品（ADC、寡核苷酸、自免等）、创新药逐步开始商业化且国内平台价值显现（例如近期赛诺菲和信达生物的合作）、国内公司全球竞争力逐步提升。上游：该赛道较多公司业绩下半年有望加速，且自主可控逻辑有望促使估值提升。消费医疗领域，当前景气度维持、长期逻辑看好。短期受种植牙集采等因素干扰板块情绪，处于阶段性调整期，调整积蓄向上动能。主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。国企地产股：目前行业处于政策不断放松到新房销售复苏的真空期，但是展望下半年以及明年的市场可能的两种情况：1）新房销售复苏，政策放松的效应将持续；2）新房销售复苏不及预期，进一步的放松政策将持续推出，直到市场复苏。在两种情况下，房地产的系统性风险会解除，风险房企继续出清，民企地产公司既没有意愿也没有能力加杠杆，而能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企地产公司将受益复苏的市场。国企能源股：从博弈周期波动，转向配置高分红、价值股龙头。1）传统能源龙头的利润稳定性相对抬升。能源结构转变大背景下，传统能源的新增供给更加克制。地缘政治冲突风险提升，本就紧平衡的供需关系变得更加脆弱，能源价格波动中枢将较过去30年提升。2）企业资本开支降低，可用于分红的比例大幅提高，估值体系从周期股走向价值股，类债券的配置属性凸显。金融：经济预期偏弱+房企风险抬头+社融趋势承压下，金融板块估值经历显著回调，港股金融板块股息率重新回到较高吸引力的位置，后续随着经济预期改善，行业的悲观预期有望迎来缓解。交运：出入境政策变化，跨省游熔断政策松绑，高分红的交运龙头迎来业绩改善契机。海关总署将于8月31日零时启用第九版《中华人民共和国出／入境健康申明卡》。第九版最为明显的变化是，取消了对出入境人员核酸检测信息、既往感染情况、疫苗接种日期的申报要求。文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳8月24日在发布会上表示：“根据疫情防控形势，我们动态调整文化和旅游场所的开放政策，并将跨省团队旅游“熔断”区域进一步精准到县域”。建材：地产后周期“下”有底，基本面筑底，不宜过度悲观；上半年大力发放的专项债有望在下半年形成基建实物工作量，下半年基建有弹性。关注股价处于底部、“现金牛”真价值的建材龙头。4、风险提示全球经济增速下行、中、美货币政策不达预期、大国博弈风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056578485,"gmtCreate":1655072315847,"gmtModify":1676535553681,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056578485","repostId":"2242544980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011838593,"gmtCreate":1648853230323,"gmtModify":1676534409032,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>200","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>200","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$200","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a93600d0119e1b74693d715670825851","width":"1080","height":"3509"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011838593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060989472,"gmtCreate":1651096921612,"gmtModify":1676534846733,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060989472","repostId":"1192272759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192272759","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651073134,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192272759?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-04-27 23:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"今年大涨近12%！这个板块行情还能火多久？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192272759","media":"中国证券报","summary":"从2131.28点的阶段低点，到3342.03点的7年来新高，2021年11月至今，A股煤炭板块的市场表现一骑绝尘。虽经历回调，煤炭板块今年来仍有近12%的涨幅。在业内机构看来，煤价走高与基本面向好，","content":"<div>\n<p>从2131.28点的阶段低点，到3342.03点的7年来新高，2021年11月至今，A股煤炭板块的市场表现一骑绝尘。虽经历回调，煤炭板块今年来仍有近12%的涨幅。在业内机构看来，煤价走高与基本面向好，合力推动了煤炭板块上行。疫情后续缓和及下游需求提升等因素，也有望使得焦炭、焦煤、动力煤价格存在上涨空间或动力。一些机构表示，看好当前煤炭板块，建议关注业绩稳定且高分红标的。多因素共振助推行情走高4月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今年大涨近12%！这个板块行情还能火多久？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年大涨近12%！这个板块行情还能火多久？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-27 23:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q><strong>中国证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从2131.28点的阶段低点，到3342.03点的7年来新高，2021年11月至今，A股煤炭板块的市场表现一骑绝尘。虽经历回调，煤炭板块今年来仍有近12%的涨幅。在业内机构看来，煤价走高与基本面向好，合力推动了煤炭板块上行。疫情后续缓和及下游需求提升等因素，也有望使得焦炭、焦煤、动力煤价格存在上涨空间或动力。一些机构表示，看好当前煤炭板块，建议关注业绩稳定且高分红标的。多因素共振助推行情走高4月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192272759","content_text":"从2131.28点的阶段低点，到3342.03点的7年来新高，2021年11月至今，A股煤炭板块的市场表现一骑绝尘。虽经历回调，煤炭板块今年来仍有近12%的涨幅。在业内机构看来，煤价走高与基本面向好，合力推动了煤炭板块上行。疫情后续缓和及下游需求提升等因素，也有望使得焦炭、焦煤、动力煤价格存在上涨空间或动力。一些机构表示，看好当前煤炭板块，建议关注业绩稳定且高分红标的。多因素共振助推行情走高4月27日，煤炭行业板块（申万一级行业）随着A股市场的大幅反弹而走高，收盘上涨4.10%。年初至今，煤炭板块累计涨幅达11.94%，超越其他30个申万一级行业表现，也是今年以来唯一取得正收益的板块。拉长时间来看，煤炭板块本轮上涨行情从2020年7月启动，到2021年9月维持了近1年的上涨态势，彼时包括煤炭在内的诸多周期品板块都有不俗表现，周期股行情成为市场资金追逐的对象；2021年9月煤炭板块迎来2个月的下探行情，而后板块再度走高，于2022年4月15日盘中创出7年多以来新高。图片来源：Wind中国证券报记者梳理机构观点发现，价格持续上涨是推动煤炭行业景气度提升的主要推手之一，俄乌冲突引发欧美多国宣布禁止进口俄罗斯煤炭，进一步加剧全球范围内能源价格的走高。Wind数据显示，截至4月27日，焦炭、焦煤、动力煤期货主力合约价格年初以来均实现了21%以上的涨幅。图片来源：WindWind数据显示，目前已披露2021年年报的煤炭上市公司中，超过20家归母净利润同比增长，其中过半数增幅超过100%。昊华能源2021年归母净利润同比增长超4100%，陕西黑猫2021年归母净利润同比增长超670%，兰花科创2021年归母净利润同比增长近528%。国家统计局4月27日披露数据显示，能源保供措施有效推进，今年一季度煤炭等能源产品生产较快增长，煤炭采选业3月PPI同比涨幅扩大至53.9%，带动一季度行业利润增长1.89倍。关注配置机遇从上周以来，煤炭板块随着A股整体回调而回落。但从估值角度看，截至4月27日煤炭板块市盈率（TTM）仍位于过去5年65.49%的分位点，3月至今动力煤期货主力合约价格也已小幅走低。对于煤炭板块后市基本面及行情走势，当前多数机构仍然持乐观态度。在国盛证券看来，大秦线短时间内难以保持满发状态，后续进口煤也可能明显减少，若沿海的低库存问题不能得到解决，即使步入淡季，动力煤煤价在阶段性下跌后仍会再度上涨；焦煤方面，短期内下游需求仍有提升空间，叠加焦钢企业低库存，下游主动补库动力充足，价格将再度强势拉涨；焦炭方面，后续随着疫情缓和，在钢厂铁水产量复苏下，价格存上涨空间。从公募基金持仓情况看，今年一季度煤炭板块的仓位提升，一定程度上也印证了机构对板块价值的看好。据民生证券统计，截至今年一季度末，公募基金持有煤炭股总市值为276.84亿元，较2021年四季度末的89.5亿元增长209.33%。从占比来看，一季度公募基金筹码集中在动力煤龙头，对焦煤的持仓有所上升。在民生证券看来，后期随着疫情得到有效控制，叠加地产基建投资刺激等因素，动力煤后续价格有望回升，焦煤需求也有望受到提振。信达证券指出，现阶段行业基本面、政策底层逻辑与直接效果均利好煤炭板块估值修复提升，再考虑今年上半年业绩高增的确定性，当前是逢低配置煤炭板块的合理阶段。继续看多煤炭板块，建议关注煤炭的配置机遇。对于具体标的选择，机构青睐业绩稳定且高分红标的。开源证券指出，近期多家煤企一季度业绩超出预期，多数企业的年化估值水平仅为4倍或5倍，安全边际高。此外，稳增长的相应政策有望继续出台，需求预期仍将向好。配置上，建议关注业绩稳健且高分红受益标的。此外，具有成长性预期受益标的、新产业转型受益标的以及债务重组受益标的也值得关注。值得注意的是，自5月1日起，国家发改委2月印发的《关于进一步完善煤炭市场价格形成机制的通知》（发改价格〔2022〕303号）将正式实施，该通知明确了煤炭（动力煤）中长期交易价格的合理区间。发改委也明确，将引导煤炭价格运行在合理区间，保障能源安全稳定供应。开源证券认为，煤企短期高业绩已逐步得到市场认可，中长期的业绩平稳释放是引导煤炭股估值重塑的关键因素。煤炭板块投资逻辑或主要围绕“稳增长”与“转型”两大主线：基建地产链条受益，利好煤焦钢产业链，且钢铁碳达峰延缓利好炼焦煤需求；在碳中和背景下，煤企新增产能意愿明显下降，内生增长不足但外延式增长将成为主流，煤企高盈利有能力做转型。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9084394685,"gmtCreate":1650808063068,"gmtModify":1676534796121,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thans for info","listText":"thans for info","text":"thans for info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084394685","repostId":"2229167270","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2229167270","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650787569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229167270?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-04-24 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229167270","media":"Barrons","summary":"Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming stocks, dragging down shares of competitors left and right.</p><p>The streaming pioneer finished the week down 37%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros</a>, Discovery tumbled 17%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global </a> dropped 15%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney </a> fell 9%, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A) lost 8%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMCX\">AMC Networks </a> shed 7%. NBCUniversal owner Comcast (CMCSA) slipped less than 5%, buoyed by cable-segment results at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon Communications </a>.</p><p>Wall Street continues to wake up to the thesis presented in a recent <i>Barron’s</i> cover story: Streaming is a hit with consumers, and undoubtedly the future of how people will consume movies and TV series, but the business model just doesn’t work yet—and for some companies, maybe never will.</p><p>A survey of 3,100 U.S. adults by Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne and his team found that the average household subscribes to 2.8 paid streaming services today, up from 2.5 a year ago and 1.8 in 2018. Consumers want to stream, and it’s not a winner-takes-all game. But there are many more contestants than places on the podium.</p><p>The streaming industry remains in a land-grab phase, with companies throwing tens of billions of dollars into original series and movies, marketing, and promotions. Following the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> model, legacy media firms will accept several years of unprofitable growth for their services, on their way to the Holy Grail of high-margin, recurring-revenue subscriptions with global scale. Big Tech giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com </a> view their streaming services as customer-retention add-ons to their more-profitable businesses—not as profit makers.</p><p>The hard truth is that it’s difficult to make money in streaming when your competitors explicitly choose not to, and investors want to see profits. With interest rates on the rise and valuations of long-duration assets under pressure, Wall Street is less willing to underwrite cash-burning initiatives that might only begin to pay off several years down the road.</p><p>Some of Netflix’s issues are company-specific. The stock’s valuation on a variety of metrics towered above streaming rivals, giving shares more room to fall. Netflix already has 222 million subscribers and a multiyear head start. And management may have waited too late to begin working on an advertising-supported tier of the service. But competition will be felt at Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, and Paramount+, too.</p><p>So what should investors do? They have options: Focus on the surest streaming winners (Disney, WBD, and Netflix), the companies with other revenue and profit levers to pull (Disney and Comcast), or the cheapest stock valuations (Paramount and WBD). Or perhaps avoid streaming stocks altogether until the dust settles and the path to sustainable profits emerges—if that ever happens.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-24 16:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-nflx-streaming-51650673508?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming stocks, dragging down shares of competitors left and right.The streaming pioneer finished the week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-nflx-streaming-51650673508?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","DIS":"迪士尼","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","T":"At&T","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","PARA":"Paramount Global","WBD":"Warner Bros. Discovery","BK4581":"高盛持仓","AMCX":"AMC网络公司","PARAA":"Paramount Global","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","NFLX":"奈飞","CMCSA":"康卡斯特"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-nflx-streaming-51650673508?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2229167270","content_text":"Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming stocks, dragging down shares of competitors left and right.The streaming pioneer finished the week down 37%. Warner Bros, Discovery tumbled 17%, Paramount Global  dropped 15%, Walt Disney  fell 9%, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A) lost 8%, and AMC Networks  shed 7%. NBCUniversal owner Comcast (CMCSA) slipped less than 5%, buoyed by cable-segment results at AT&T  and Verizon Communications .Wall Street continues to wake up to the thesis presented in a recent Barron’s cover story: Streaming is a hit with consumers, and undoubtedly the future of how people will consume movies and TV series, but the business model just doesn’t work yet—and for some companies, maybe never will.A survey of 3,100 U.S. adults by Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne and his team found that the average household subscribes to 2.8 paid streaming services today, up from 2.5 a year ago and 1.8 in 2018. Consumers want to stream, and it’s not a winner-takes-all game. But there are many more contestants than places on the podium.The streaming industry remains in a land-grab phase, with companies throwing tens of billions of dollars into original series and movies, marketing, and promotions. Following the Netflix model, legacy media firms will accept several years of unprofitable growth for their services, on their way to the Holy Grail of high-margin, recurring-revenue subscriptions with global scale. Big Tech giants Apple  and Amazon.com  view their streaming services as customer-retention add-ons to their more-profitable businesses—not as profit makers.The hard truth is that it’s difficult to make money in streaming when your competitors explicitly choose not to, and investors want to see profits. With interest rates on the rise and valuations of long-duration assets under pressure, Wall Street is less willing to underwrite cash-burning initiatives that might only begin to pay off several years down the road.Some of Netflix’s issues are company-specific. The stock’s valuation on a variety of metrics towered above streaming rivals, giving shares more room to fall. Netflix already has 222 million subscribers and a multiyear head start. And management may have waited too late to begin working on an advertising-supported tier of the service. But competition will be felt at Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, and Paramount+, too.So what should investors do? They have options: Focus on the surest streaming winners (Disney, WBD, and Netflix), the companies with other revenue and profit levers to pull (Disney and Comcast), or the cheapest stock valuations (Paramount and WBD). Or perhaps avoid streaming stocks altogether until the dust settles and the path to sustainable profits emerges—if that ever happens.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030119051,"gmtCreate":1645661075995,"gmtModify":1676534050031,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030119051","repostId":"1153372780","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094618762,"gmtCreate":1645139339196,"gmtModify":1676534000790,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094618762","repostId":"2212790643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212790643","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645134000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212790643?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-02-18 05:40","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条 | 地缘风险引发变天！加息力度预期下降","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212790643","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>下滑至第23位</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66347a4fb7af0ba668115eab488be5e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注</b></p><p>市场交易员目前预计，美联储在3月会议上加息25个基点的可能性比加息50个基点更大。</p><p>虽然通胀率高于预期且美联储明显的鹰派姿态本月早些时候引发了对更大幅加息的猜测，但最近一系列地缘政治消息推动避险情绪升温，25个基点的加息幅度似乎变得更有可能。周三发布的美联储会议纪要未透露任何关于大幅加息的重要线索，这也助长了交易员对25基点的押注。</p><p>俄乌局势趋紧刺激了周四对美国国债的买盘，短期收益率下滑。与3月份美联储利率会议时间挂钩的隔夜指数掉期（OIS）预计联邦基金目标利率将比当前0.08%的实际有效利率高出约35基点。鉴于美联储升息幅度通常是25基点的倍数，所以OIS价格说明交易员认为3月肯定至少加25基点，但50基点的可能性只有40%左右。</p><p>与几天前相比，这是一个明显的变化。周三开盘时，市场价格反映3月可能升息40基点左右，表明加息50个基点的可能性相对更大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c137c648d0511487e08ea44c2d2eecff\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见</b></p><p>本轮基准油价大幅波动期间，原油期货曲线显示市场处于有史以来最强劲的时期之一。</p><p>本周布伦特价格大幅波动至90美元以上，但市场结构中的波动更大。</p><p>近月合约较远期合约大幅溢价，显示交易员现在正在争相购油。一些期货价差已达到2007年有相关数据以来的最高水准。</p><p>这在全球最重要的实物原油价格中得到最明确的反映：即期布伦特原油现货价格周三触及每桶100美元，为2014年以来首次。最近几周，北海现货市场蓬勃发展，随着欧洲炼油厂的需求激增，一些实物价差创下历史新高。</p><p>“即期布伦特的强势显然表明炼油商正在采购短期供应，”包括Amrita Sen在内的Energy Aspects分析师在本周给客户的一份报告中写道。“在中期内平衡这个市场的唯一方法仍然是以高油价来减缓需求的增长。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c325e4a226b032ea404326b7608b784\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动</b></p><p>美国圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯-布拉德（James Bullard）周四警告称，如果美联储不采取利率行动，通胀可能会成为一个更严重的问题。</p><p>布拉德称，“我们这一代人现在面临的风险比以往都更大，这可能会失控。一种情况是，我们面临着一个无法预料的新的意外，我们可能还会有更高的通胀。这是我们希望确保不会发生的那种情况。”</p><p>布拉德最近因呼吁美联储采取鹰派行动而备受市场关注。他主张在7月之前将利率提高一个百分点，以应对40年来最严重的通胀。</p><p>在周四的讲话中，布拉德重申了他的主张，即美联储应该“前置”加息，以遏制通胀。</p><p>“总体而言，我认为，关于通胀将在未来某个时候消散的想法被过分强调和关注了，”布拉德说。“我们面临通胀不会消散的风险，2022年将是连续第二年出现相当高的通胀水平。所以这就是为什么在这种情况下，美联储应该比在其他情况下更快、更积极地采取行动。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e67869333513b30423c5183cff7e5fa\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词</b></p><p>高盛集团的策略师说，历史罕见的劳动力市场吃紧、低失业率以及不断上升的工资通胀正在挤压利润率，让美国企业疲于应付。</p><p>David J． Kostin牵头的策略师表示，通过对标普500指数成份股公司第四季度财报电话会议的分析可以看出，在劳动力参与率仍然低于疫情前水平的情况下，许多公司正在提高薪酬以吸引工人，这对企业利润构成压力。尽管薪资增速达到数十年来最快，但人手问题仍然存在，也是供应链中断的原因之一。</p><p>“供应链中断继续影响利润率，目前尚不清楚这些问题何时得到解决，”Kostin在一份报告中写道。“最近一个季度的财报电话会议显示，这些中断将持续多久、我们距离正常化还有多远，存在更多不确定性。”</p><p>尽管如此，Kostin表示，那些在供应链问题出现之初就采取行动的公司能够保护利润率，并说分析师们在财报季开始时低估了企业利润的强劲程度。高盛还建议关注那些资产负债表强劲、利润率稳定、能够在投入成本通胀时期保护利润的优质公司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9af5544d17617b91904ef219130a0532\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位</b></p><p>美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级，特斯拉评级下滑7位，排名23，这是特斯拉七年来最差的表现；特斯拉Model 3不再是2022年电动汽车市场“最佳选择”，而是被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>Mustang Mach-E取代。</p><p>《消费者报告》高级主管杰克费舍尔表示，Model 3在某些方面无法与福特Mach-E 相媲美，尤其是辅助驾驶方面。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c0644f19cec3708bd8692fa0398ded\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的</b></p><p>Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood周四表示，其专注于创新的投资组合中的科技公司被严重低估，并认为旗下基金最近的抛售是暂时的。</p><p>“我们的基金出现了大幅下滑，”Wood周四表示。 “我们确实相信创新型股票处于廉价区域……我们的科技股相对于其潜力被大幅低估了……给我们五年时间，我们正在运行一个深度价值投资组合。”</p><p>Wood的旗舰基金<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>在2022年陷入了科技股暴跌浪潮的中心，今年迄今已下跌26%。由于对利率上升的预期，她持有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、Teladoc Health和Roku等在内的重仓股今年已经下跌了70%。</p><p>“我们最大的担忧是，我们的投资者将我们认为的暂时损失变成了永久性损失，”Wood说。</p></body></html>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条 | 地缘风险引发变天！加息力度预期下降</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条 | 地缘风险引发变天！加息力度预期下降\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-18 05:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-18/doc-ikyamrna1378664.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动4、高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词5、美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位6、“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-18/doc-ikyamrna1378664.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66347a4fb7af0ba668115eab488be5e2","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-18/doc-ikyamrna1378664.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212790643","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动4、高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词5、美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位6、“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注市场交易员目前预计，美联储在3月会议上加息25个基点的可能性比加息50个基点更大。虽然通胀率高于预期且美联储明显的鹰派姿态本月早些时候引发了对更大幅加息的猜测，但最近一系列地缘政治消息推动避险情绪升温，25个基点的加息幅度似乎变得更有可能。周三发布的美联储会议纪要未透露任何关于大幅加息的重要线索，这也助长了交易员对25基点的押注。俄乌局势趋紧刺激了周四对美国国债的买盘，短期收益率下滑。与3月份美联储利率会议时间挂钩的隔夜指数掉期（OIS）预计联邦基金目标利率将比当前0.08%的实际有效利率高出约35基点。鉴于美联储升息幅度通常是25基点的倍数，所以OIS价格说明交易员认为3月肯定至少加25基点，但50基点的可能性只有40%左右。与几天前相比，这是一个明显的变化。周三开盘时，市场价格反映3月可能升息40基点左右，表明加息50个基点的可能性相对更大。近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见本轮基准油价大幅波动期间，原油期货曲线显示市场处于有史以来最强劲的时期之一。本周布伦特价格大幅波动至90美元以上，但市场结构中的波动更大。近月合约较远期合约大幅溢价，显示交易员现在正在争相购油。一些期货价差已达到2007年有相关数据以来的最高水准。这在全球最重要的实物原油价格中得到最明确的反映：即期布伦特原油现货价格周三触及每桶100美元，为2014年以来首次。最近几周，北海现货市场蓬勃发展，随着欧洲炼油厂的需求激增，一些实物价差创下历史新高。“即期布伦特的强势显然表明炼油商正在采购短期供应，”包括Amrita Sen在内的Energy Aspects分析师在本周给客户的一份报告中写道。“在中期内平衡这个市场的唯一方法仍然是以高油价来减缓需求的增长。”美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动美国圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯-布拉德（James Bullard）周四警告称，如果美联储不采取利率行动，通胀可能会成为一个更严重的问题。布拉德称，“我们这一代人现在面临的风险比以往都更大，这可能会失控。一种情况是，我们面临着一个无法预料的新的意外，我们可能还会有更高的通胀。这是我们希望确保不会发生的那种情况。”布拉德最近因呼吁美联储采取鹰派行动而备受市场关注。他主张在7月之前将利率提高一个百分点，以应对40年来最严重的通胀。在周四的讲话中，布拉德重申了他的主张，即美联储应该“前置”加息，以遏制通胀。“总体而言，我认为，关于通胀将在未来某个时候消散的想法被过分强调和关注了，”布拉德说。“我们面临通胀不会消散的风险，2022年将是连续第二年出现相当高的通胀水平。所以这就是为什么在这种情况下，美联储应该比在其他情况下更快、更积极地采取行动。”高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词高盛集团的策略师说，历史罕见的劳动力市场吃紧、低失业率以及不断上升的工资通胀正在挤压利润率，让美国企业疲于应付。David J． Kostin牵头的策略师表示，通过对标普500指数成份股公司第四季度财报电话会议的分析可以看出，在劳动力参与率仍然低于疫情前水平的情况下，许多公司正在提高薪酬以吸引工人，这对企业利润构成压力。尽管薪资增速达到数十年来最快，但人手问题仍然存在，也是供应链中断的原因之一。“供应链中断继续影响利润率，目前尚不清楚这些问题何时得到解决，”Kostin在一份报告中写道。“最近一个季度的财报电话会议显示，这些中断将持续多久、我们距离正常化还有多远，存在更多不确定性。”尽管如此，Kostin表示，那些在供应链问题出现之初就采取行动的公司能够保护利润率，并说分析师们在财报季开始时低估了企业利润的强劲程度。高盛还建议关注那些资产负债表强劲、利润率稳定、能够在投入成本通胀时期保护利润的优质公司。美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级，特斯拉评级下滑7位，排名23，这是特斯拉七年来最差的表现；特斯拉Model 3不再是2022年电动汽车市场“最佳选择”，而是被福特汽车Mustang Mach-E取代。《消费者报告》高级主管杰克费舍尔表示，Model 3在某些方面无法与福特Mach-E 相媲美，尤其是辅助驾驶方面。“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood周四表示，其专注于创新的投资组合中的科技公司被严重低估，并认为旗下基金最近的抛售是暂时的。“我们的基金出现了大幅下滑，”Wood周四表示。 “我们确实相信创新型股票处于廉价区域……我们的科技股相对于其潜力被大幅低估了……给我们五年时间，我们正在运行一个深度价值投资组合。”Wood的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF在2022年陷入了科技股暴跌浪潮的中心，今年迄今已下跌26%。由于对利率上升的预期，她持有的Zoom、Teladoc Health和Roku等在内的重仓股今年已经下跌了70%。“我们最大的担忧是，我们的投资者将我们认为的暂时损失变成了永久性损失，”Wood说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098519850,"gmtCreate":1644187067230,"gmtModify":1676533896290,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098519850","repostId":"2209332881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209332881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644139787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209332881?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-02-06 17:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中信证券：春节假期海外市场的喜与忧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209332881","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>核心观点</b></p><p>春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。</p><p><b>摘要</b></p><p>春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。</p><p>经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。</p><p>央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。</p><p>展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p>春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖</p><p>春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，</p><p>受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。</p><p>股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。</p><p>节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高</b></p><p>春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。</p><p>2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。</p><p><b>英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩</b></p><p>春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。</p><p>英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。</p><p>欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。</p><p><b>流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大</b></p><p>春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：</p><p>1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。</p><p>2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。</p><p>但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。</p><p>本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：春节假期海外市场的喜与忧</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：春节假期海外市场的喜与忧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-06 17:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html><strong>CS宏观研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4270e14fdc3e34096f78e73c39325f97","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","06030":"中信证券","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1516":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209332881","content_text":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。正文春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099410360,"gmtCreate":1643412024442,"gmtModify":16765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23:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"明年，比亚迪超越特斯拉？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178072021","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"过去的2021年，国内新能源汽车产销量约在300万辆。一些乐观的人士认为，2022年国内新能源汽车销量会达到500万辆。市场在飞速扩张，资本市场会继续狂热。所有新能源车企，都面临巨大的市场机会。谁会是","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>过去的2021年，国内新能源汽车产销量约在300万辆。一些乐观的人士认为，2022年国内新能源汽车销量会达到500万辆。市场在飞速扩张，资本市场会继续狂热。所有新能源车企，都面临巨大的市场机会。</p><p>谁会是新的赢家，大部分人会说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，但一些分析机构认为是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>。</p><p>“比亚迪的销量会在2023年超越特斯拉”，比亚迪的“铁粉”花旗银行曾在2021年中作出这样的预测。</p><p>在花旗银行最新的预测中，其认为比亚迪2022年的销量将突破130万辆，且把比亚迪的股价目标价提升至504元。按这个目标价计算，比亚迪的股价（比亚迪今日收盘价253.2元，总市值6859.2亿元）还可以翻一倍，届时比亚迪的市值将超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>，位列A股第三。</p><p>花旗银行曾表示，在未来的市场竞争中，售价低于1.8万美元的新能源汽车将迅速占领市场。特斯拉还未到达这个价位区间，其他对手没有比亚迪能打。</p><p>除了销量外，花旗银行给到比亚迪的估值倍率几乎向特斯拉看齐。目前在市值上，比亚迪仅为特斯拉的约十分之一。多数分析机构给到比亚迪的估值倍率（市盈率在150至190倍）都低于特斯拉（特斯拉市盈率超过300倍），原因包括比亚迪整车平均售价低于特斯拉且在智能化、品牌形象上存在短板。</p><p>但按照花旗银行的估值倍率（按比亚迪Q3净利润计算约为450倍）来看，在自动驾驶等智能化领域存在短板的比亚迪，在未来的成长性上与特斯拉平起平坐，甚至更高。</p><p>牛皮已经帮比亚迪吹出去了，比亚迪能做到吗？</p><p><b>谁卖得多，谁才是老大</b></p><p>目前新能源汽车产业的竞争仍处于“上半场”，尽管部分车企已在智能化方面筑起壁垒，但上半场的竞争仍是市场规模的竞争。现阶段对新能源车企估值的最大基础，就是车企的销量数据。</p><p>因12月销量超出预期，花旗银行再次微调了对比亚迪的目标价。12月比亚迪销量达9.9万辆，其中新能源汽车销量达9.28万辆，同比增长236.4%。</p><p>销量创下新高的2021年12月，比亚迪的部分产能受西安疫情影响导致交付延期。2021年一整年，比亚迪由于产能受限而未交付的订单约有20万辆。花旗银行认为，在需求端本就火爆的比亚迪，因约20万辆的订单延迟交付，2022年的表现会比原本的预期更加出色。</p><p>因比亚迪在2021年下半年销量的爆发式增长，花旗银行曾多次上调对比亚迪的估值。2021年9月，花旗银行将比亚迪的目标价从352元提升至461元，涨幅超过30%。该次提高目标价主要是出于对比亚迪新能源汽车的需求猛增，以及其长期的成本结构优势的考虑。</p><p>而本次上调目标价，花旗银行的主要理由是，比亚迪在需求端表现良好，且产能情况逐渐好转，在新能源汽车渗透率逐渐提高的2022年，比亚迪的交付量将会稳步释放。花旗银行预计比亚迪2022-202年的交付量将分别达到130、175及200万辆。</p><p>这个目标略高于比亚迪自身的销量预期，比亚迪此前曾表示2022年预计销量约为120万辆。</p><p>“120万辆的目标，对比亚迪而言略显保守了”，一位新能源汽车分析师认为，比亚迪踩中了混动及纯电两个市场，且自持动力电池及半导体产能，在需求端不变的情况下，比亚迪2022年完成130万辆的目标并不困难。</p><p>国内的安信证券等机构，对比亚迪2022年的销量预估都为140万辆。但这类分析机构的报告给到比亚迪的估值均在350-400元之间，远低于花旗银行的504元。区别在于，安信证券等机构认为比亚迪的估值逻辑与造车新势力等纯电动车企不同。</p><p>“花旗银行的视角是把比亚迪的估值倍数完全对标特斯拉的，在2022年真正能打破产能地狱，且有能力大规模交付订单的只有特斯拉和比亚迪”，一位券商分析师对虎嗅表示。</p><p>在产能扩张方面，比亚迪日前表示将开设三个新工厂，到2022年第二季度将增加50万辆的产能。据虎嗅不完全统计，加上这50万辆产能后，比亚迪的纯电加混动年产能将超过140万辆。而据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师预计，算上柏林工厂后，特斯拉在2022年的年产能将超过180万辆。</p><p>虽然比亚迪的产能扩张速度不如特斯拉，但在产品迭代上，比亚迪短期内存在优势。“特斯拉在2022年不会有新的车型，但比亚迪的海洋系列及新的混动车型将在2022年上市，比亚迪的车型定价低于特斯拉，在销量表现上具有更高的潜力”，美股分析师爱德卡森在其评论文章中表示。</p><p>目前，比亚迪与特斯拉的整车毛利率仍有较大差距。但前述业内人士认为，这种差距正在被缩小。“dmi技术新增投入很小，加上比亚迪新车型的规模化效应开始显现，单车成本下降等因素，整车毛利率会继续上浮”。而因多半销量来自于混动车型，新能源补贴退坡对比亚迪造成的影响也将小于特斯拉。</p><p><b>比亚迪这么猛，为什么涨不动？</b></p><p>虽然比亚迪未来的成长性不逊色于特斯拉，但最近几年比亚迪在二级市场的表现远差于特斯拉，还不如宁德时代。</p><p>在2021年市值短暂越过9000亿元的门槛后，曾有部分机构喊出“比亚迪明天就上万亿”的口号。但截至发稿前，比亚迪的市值重新跌落7000亿，离万亿市值的门槛又远了。</p><p>“从市盈率的角度来看，比亚迪的估值已经很高了，花旗银行用的估值法是市销率，参考的是营收而非净利润”，前述人士表示，由于比亚迪包含手机组装、燃油车等估值不高的业务，且资本市场对股票的估值更多参考市盈率，所以比亚迪的股价在部分机构看来已经过高。</p><p>首先是赚钱能力上的差距。在2021年，比亚迪一度陷入增收不增利的局面。2021年前三季度，比亚迪营收1451.9亿元，净利润仅为24.4亿元。作为对比，特斯拉2021年Q3GAAP营业利润为20亿美元，一个季度的净利润约为比亚迪三个季度净利润的6倍。</p><p>“比亚迪整车毛利率与特斯拉的差距大概是5%，但是净利率差距非常大，主要是因为比亚迪的自持供应链业务没有开始外供，这些业务给比亚迪造成了很大的成本压力”，一位动力电池企业内部人士曾对虎嗅表示。</p><p>其次是智能化方面的差距。此前，部分华尔街的分析机构甚至表示，特斯拉60%的估值来自于软件收入、保险、充电服务等领域。而其中部分看多特斯拉的分析师甚至把特斯拉的软件收入估值拉到超过4000亿美元。</p><p>而这多出的4000亿美元，在比亚迪这几乎是空白，目前比亚迪并未推出类似收费的自动驾驶服务。</p><p>“特斯拉的估值逻辑早就不是单纯的车企，但比亚迪的估值逻辑也不应该是车企”，爱德卡森认为，如果将时间线拉长到10-20年，特斯拉的想象空间在软件，而比亚迪的想象空间在动力电池、半导体等硬件领域。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>也在日前表示，“我们认为公司后续更大的投资价值是作为中性的新能源汽车一站式解决方案提供商，包括锂电池(刀片电池技术等)、半导体(IGBT)、三合一电机/电控技术等”。</p><p>在这样的前提下，特斯拉和比亚迪将走向两个完全不同的终点。</p><p>“从公司的业务布局来看，花旗银行的估值倍率是有道理的，但是特斯拉与比亚迪的区别就是，特斯拉已经开始把预期变为现实，但比亚迪除了整车业务有进展外，供应链业务并没有特别大的进展”，前述人士表示。</p><p>乐观的人会把这些业务看成“特斯拉”+“宁德时代”+“富士康”+“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">英飞凌</a>”，这几乎是比亚迪的天花板，但也意味着比亚迪要在和这些行业龙头的竞争中获胜。</p><p>除了新能源整车有可能在销量上超越特斯拉外及估值不高的手机代工业务媲美富士康外，比亚迪的其他细分业务还有很长的路要走。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>明年，比亚迪超越特斯拉？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n明年，比亚迪超越特斯拉？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-05 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>过去的2021年，国内新能源汽车产销量约在300万辆。一些乐观的人士认为，2022年国内新能源汽车销量会达到500万辆。市场在飞速扩张，资本市场会继续狂热。所有新能源车企，都面临巨大的市场机会。</p><p>谁会是新的赢家，大部分人会说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，但一些分析机构认为是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>。</p><p>“比亚迪的销量会在2023年超越特斯拉”，比亚迪的“铁粉”花旗银行曾在2021年中作出这样的预测。</p><p>在花旗银行最新的预测中，其认为比亚迪2022年的销量将突破130万辆，且把比亚迪的股价目标价提升至504元。按这个目标价计算，比亚迪的股价（比亚迪今日收盘价253.2元，总市值6859.2亿元）还可以翻一倍，届时比亚迪的市值将超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>，位列A股第三。</p><p>花旗银行曾表示，在未来的市场竞争中，售价低于1.8万美元的新能源汽车将迅速占领市场。特斯拉还未到达这个价位区间，其他对手没有比亚迪能打。</p><p>除了销量外，花旗银行给到比亚迪的估值倍率几乎向特斯拉看齐。目前在市值上，比亚迪仅为特斯拉的约十分之一。多数分析机构给到比亚迪的估值倍率（市盈率在150至190倍）都低于特斯拉（特斯拉市盈率超过300倍），原因包括比亚迪整车平均售价低于特斯拉且在智能化、品牌形象上存在短板。</p><p>但按照花旗银行的估值倍率（按比亚迪Q3净利润计算约为450倍）来看，在自动驾驶等智能化领域存在短板的比亚迪，在未来的成长性上与特斯拉平起平坐，甚至更高。</p><p>牛皮已经帮比亚迪吹出去了，比亚迪能做到吗？</p><p><b>谁卖得多，谁才是老大</b></p><p>目前新能源汽车产业的竞争仍处于“上半场”，尽管部分车企已在智能化方面筑起壁垒，但上半场的竞争仍是市场规模的竞争。现阶段对新能源车企估值的最大基础，就是车企的销量数据。</p><p>因12月销量超出预期，花旗银行再次微调了对比亚迪的目标价。12月比亚迪销量达9.9万辆，其中新能源汽车销量达9.28万辆，同比增长236.4%。</p><p>销量创下新高的2021年12月，比亚迪的部分产能受西安疫情影响导致交付延期。2021年一整年，比亚迪由于产能受限而未交付的订单约有20万辆。花旗银行认为，在需求端本就火爆的比亚迪，因约20万辆的订单延迟交付，2022年的表现会比原本的预期更加出色。</p><p>因比亚迪在2021年下半年销量的爆发式增长，花旗银行曾多次上调对比亚迪的估值。2021年9月，花旗银行将比亚迪的目标价从352元提升至461元，涨幅超过30%。该次提高目标价主要是出于对比亚迪新能源汽车的需求猛增，以及其长期的成本结构优势的考虑。</p><p>而本次上调目标价，花旗银行的主要理由是，比亚迪在需求端表现良好，且产能情况逐渐好转，在新能源汽车渗透率逐渐提高的2022年，比亚迪的交付量将会稳步释放。花旗银行预计比亚迪2022-202年的交付量将分别达到130、175及200万辆。</p><p>这个目标略高于比亚迪自身的销量预期，比亚迪此前曾表示2022年预计销量约为120万辆。</p><p>“120万辆的目标，对比亚迪而言略显保守了”，一位新能源汽车分析师认为，比亚迪踩中了混动及纯电两个市场，且自持动力电池及半导体产能，在需求端不变的情况下，比亚迪2022年完成130万辆的目标并不困难。</p><p>国内的安信证券等机构，对比亚迪2022年的销量预估都为140万辆。但这类分析机构的报告给到比亚迪的估值均在350-400元之间，远低于花旗银行的504元。区别在于，安信证券等机构认为比亚迪的估值逻辑与造车新势力等纯电动车企不同。</p><p>“花旗银行的视角是把比亚迪的估值倍数完全对标特斯拉的，在2022年真正能打破产能地狱，且有能力大规模交付订单的只有特斯拉和比亚迪”，一位券商分析师对虎嗅表示。</p><p>在产能扩张方面，比亚迪日前表示将开设三个新工厂，到2022年第二季度将增加50万辆的产能。据虎嗅不完全统计，加上这50万辆产能后，比亚迪的纯电加混动年产能将超过140万辆。而据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师预计，算上柏林工厂后，特斯拉在2022年的年产能将超过180万辆。</p><p>虽然比亚迪的产能扩张速度不如特斯拉，但在产品迭代上，比亚迪短期内存在优势。“特斯拉在2022年不会有新的车型，但比亚迪的海洋系列及新的混动车型将在2022年上市，比亚迪的车型定价低于特斯拉，在销量表现上具有更高的潜力”，美股分析师爱德卡森在其评论文章中表示。</p><p>目前，比亚迪与特斯拉的整车毛利率仍有较大差距。但前述业内人士认为，这种差距正在被缩小。“dmi技术新增投入很小，加上比亚迪新车型的规模化效应开始显现，单车成本下降等因素，整车毛利率会继续上浮”。而因多半销量来自于混动车型，新能源补贴退坡对比亚迪造成的影响也将小于特斯拉。</p><p><b>比亚迪这么猛，为什么涨不动？</b></p><p>虽然比亚迪未来的成长性不逊色于特斯拉，但最近几年比亚迪在二级市场的表现远差于特斯拉，还不如宁德时代。</p><p>在2021年市值短暂越过9000亿元的门槛后，曾有部分机构喊出“比亚迪明天就上万亿”的口号。但截至发稿前，比亚迪的市值重新跌落7000亿，离万亿市值的门槛又远了。</p><p>“从市盈率的角度来看，比亚迪的估值已经很高了，花旗银行用的估值法是市销率，参考的是营收而非净利润”，前述人士表示，由于比亚迪包含手机组装、燃油车等估值不高的业务，且资本市场对股票的估值更多参考市盈率，所以比亚迪的股价在部分机构看来已经过高。</p><p>首先是赚钱能力上的差距。在2021年，比亚迪一度陷入增收不增利的局面。2021年前三季度，比亚迪营收1451.9亿元，净利润仅为24.4亿元。作为对比，特斯拉2021年Q3GAAP营业利润为20亿美元，一个季度的净利润约为比亚迪三个季度净利润的6倍。</p><p>“比亚迪整车毛利率与特斯拉的差距大概是5%，但是净利率差距非常大，主要是因为比亚迪的自持供应链业务没有开始外供，这些业务给比亚迪造成了很大的成本压力”，一位动力电池企业内部人士曾对虎嗅表示。</p><p>其次是智能化方面的差距。此前，部分华尔街的分析机构甚至表示，特斯拉60%的估值来自于软件收入、保险、充电服务等领域。而其中部分看多特斯拉的分析师甚至把特斯拉的软件收入估值拉到超过4000亿美元。</p><p>而这多出的4000亿美元，在比亚迪这几乎是空白，目前比亚迪并未推出类似收费的自动驾驶服务。</p><p>“特斯拉的估值逻辑早就不是单纯的车企，但比亚迪的估值逻辑也不应该是车企”，爱德卡森认为，如果将时间线拉长到10-20年，特斯拉的想象空间在软件，而比亚迪的想象空间在动力电池、半导体等硬件领域。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>也在日前表示，“我们认为公司后续更大的投资价值是作为中性的新能源汽车一站式解决方案提供商，包括锂电池(刀片电池技术等)、半导体(IGBT)、三合一电机/电控技术等”。</p><p>在这样的前提下，特斯拉和比亚迪将走向两个完全不同的终点。</p><p>“从公司的业务布局来看，花旗银行的估值倍率是有道理的，但是特斯拉与比亚迪的区别就是，特斯拉已经开始把预期变为现实，但比亚迪除了整车业务有进展外，供应链业务并没有特别大的进展”，前述人士表示。</p><p>乐观的人会把这些业务看成“特斯拉”+“宁德时代”+“富士康”+“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">英飞凌</a>”，这几乎是比亚迪的天花板，但也意味着比亚迪要在和这些行业龙头的竞争中获胜。</p><p>除了新能源整车有可能在销量上超越特斯拉外及估值不高的手机代工业务媲美富士康外，比亚迪的其他细分业务还有很长的路要走。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd0da05276c012aa30786f590cc9ed3","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK1119":"汽车制造商","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK1539":"汽车股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK1540":"电池","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","BK1522":"燃料电池","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178072021","content_text":"过去的2021年，国内新能源汽车产销量约在300万辆。一些乐观的人士认为，2022年国内新能源汽车销量会达到500万辆。市场在飞速扩张，资本市场会继续狂热。所有新能源车企，都面临巨大的市场机会。谁会是新的赢家，大部分人会说特斯拉，但一些分析机构认为是比亚迪。“比亚迪的销量会在2023年超越特斯拉”，比亚迪的“铁粉”花旗银行曾在2021年中作出这样的预测。在花旗银行最新的预测中，其认为比亚迪2022年的销量将突破130万辆，且把比亚迪的股价目标价提升至504元。按这个目标价计算，比亚迪的股价（比亚迪今日收盘价253.2元，总市值6859.2亿元）还可以翻一倍，届时比亚迪的市值将超过宁德时代，位列A股第三。花旗银行曾表示，在未来的市场竞争中，售价低于1.8万美元的新能源汽车将迅速占领市场。特斯拉还未到达这个价位区间，其他对手没有比亚迪能打。除了销量外，花旗银行给到比亚迪的估值倍率几乎向特斯拉看齐。目前在市值上，比亚迪仅为特斯拉的约十分之一。多数分析机构给到比亚迪的估值倍率（市盈率在150至190倍）都低于特斯拉（特斯拉市盈率超过300倍），原因包括比亚迪整车平均售价低于特斯拉且在智能化、品牌形象上存在短板。但按照花旗银行的估值倍率（按比亚迪Q3净利润计算约为450倍）来看，在自动驾驶等智能化领域存在短板的比亚迪，在未来的成长性上与特斯拉平起平坐，甚至更高。牛皮已经帮比亚迪吹出去了，比亚迪能做到吗？谁卖得多，谁才是老大目前新能源汽车产业的竞争仍处于“上半场”，尽管部分车企已在智能化方面筑起壁垒，但上半场的竞争仍是市场规模的竞争。现阶段对新能源车企估值的最大基础，就是车企的销量数据。因12月销量超出预期，花旗银行再次微调了对比亚迪的目标价。12月比亚迪销量达9.9万辆，其中新能源汽车销量达9.28万辆，同比增长236.4%。销量创下新高的2021年12月，比亚迪的部分产能受西安疫情影响导致交付延期。2021年一整年，比亚迪由于产能受限而未交付的订单约有20万辆。花旗银行认为，在需求端本就火爆的比亚迪，因约20万辆的订单延迟交付，2022年的表现会比原本的预期更加出色。因比亚迪在2021年下半年销量的爆发式增长，花旗银行曾多次上调对比亚迪的估值。2021年9月，花旗银行将比亚迪的目标价从352元提升至461元，涨幅超过30%。该次提高目标价主要是出于对比亚迪新能源汽车的需求猛增，以及其长期的成本结构优势的考虑。而本次上调目标价，花旗银行的主要理由是，比亚迪在需求端表现良好，且产能情况逐渐好转，在新能源汽车渗透率逐渐提高的2022年，比亚迪的交付量将会稳步释放。花旗银行预计比亚迪2022-202年的交付量将分别达到130、175及200万辆。这个目标略高于比亚迪自身的销量预期，比亚迪此前曾表示2022年预计销量约为120万辆。“120万辆的目标，对比亚迪而言略显保守了”，一位新能源汽车分析师认为，比亚迪踩中了混动及纯电两个市场，且自持动力电池及半导体产能，在需求端不变的情况下，比亚迪2022年完成130万辆的目标并不困难。国内的安信证券等机构，对比亚迪2022年的销量预估都为140万辆。但这类分析机构的报告给到比亚迪的估值均在350-400元之间，远低于花旗银行的504元。区别在于，安信证券等机构认为比亚迪的估值逻辑与造车新势力等纯电动车企不同。“花旗银行的视角是把比亚迪的估值倍数完全对标特斯拉的，在2022年真正能打破产能地狱，且有能力大规模交付订单的只有特斯拉和比亚迪”，一位券商分析师对虎嗅表示。在产能扩张方面，比亚迪日前表示将开设三个新工厂，到2022年第二季度将增加50万辆的产能。据虎嗅不完全统计，加上这50万辆产能后，比亚迪的纯电加混动年产能将超过140万辆。而据摩根士丹利分析师预计，算上柏林工厂后，特斯拉在2022年的年产能将超过180万辆。虽然比亚迪的产能扩张速度不如特斯拉，但在产品迭代上，比亚迪短期内存在优势。“特斯拉在2022年不会有新的车型，但比亚迪的海洋系列及新的混动车型将在2022年上市，比亚迪的车型定价低于特斯拉，在销量表现上具有更高的潜力”，美股分析师爱德卡森在其评论文章中表示。目前，比亚迪与特斯拉的整车毛利率仍有较大差距。但前述业内人士认为，这种差距正在被缩小。“dmi技术新增投入很小，加上比亚迪新车型的规模化效应开始显现，单车成本下降等因素，整车毛利率会继续上浮”。而因多半销量来自于混动车型，新能源补贴退坡对比亚迪造成的影响也将小于特斯拉。比亚迪这么猛，为什么涨不动？虽然比亚迪未来的成长性不逊色于特斯拉，但最近几年比亚迪在二级市场的表现远差于特斯拉，还不如宁德时代。在2021年市值短暂越过9000亿元的门槛后，曾有部分机构喊出“比亚迪明天就上万亿”的口号。但截至发稿前，比亚迪的市值重新跌落7000亿，离万亿市值的门槛又远了。“从市盈率的角度来看，比亚迪的估值已经很高了，花旗银行用的估值法是市销率，参考的是营收而非净利润”，前述人士表示，由于比亚迪包含手机组装、燃油车等估值不高的业务，且资本市场对股票的估值更多参考市盈率，所以比亚迪的股价在部分机构看来已经过高。首先是赚钱能力上的差距。在2021年，比亚迪一度陷入增收不增利的局面。2021年前三季度，比亚迪营收1451.9亿元，净利润仅为24.4亿元。作为对比，特斯拉2021年Q3GAAP营业利润为20亿美元，一个季度的净利润约为比亚迪三个季度净利润的6倍。“比亚迪整车毛利率与特斯拉的差距大概是5%，但是净利率差距非常大，主要是因为比亚迪的自持供应链业务没有开始外供，这些业务给比亚迪造成了很大的成本压力”，一位动力电池企业内部人士曾对虎嗅表示。其次是智能化方面的差距。此前，部分华尔街的分析机构甚至表示，特斯拉60%的估值来自于软件收入、保险、充电服务等领域。而其中部分看多特斯拉的分析师甚至把特斯拉的软件收入估值拉到超过4000亿美元。而这多出的4000亿美元，在比亚迪这几乎是空白，目前比亚迪并未推出类似收费的自动驾驶服务。“特斯拉的估值逻辑早就不是单纯的车企，但比亚迪的估值逻辑也不应该是车企”，爱德卡森认为，如果将时间线拉长到10-20年，特斯拉的想象空间在软件，而比亚迪的想象空间在动力电池、半导体等硬件领域。中信证券也在日前表示，“我们认为公司后续更大的投资价值是作为中性的新能源汽车一站式解决方案提供商，包括锂电池(刀片电池技术等)、半导体(IGBT)、三合一电机/电控技术等”。在这样的前提下，特斯拉和比亚迪将走向两个完全不同的终点。“从公司的业务布局来看，花旗银行的估值倍率是有道理的，但是特斯拉与比亚迪的区别就是，特斯拉已经开始把预期变为现实，但比亚迪除了整车业务有进展外，供应链业务并没有特别大的进展”，前述人士表示。乐观的人会把这些业务看成“特斯拉”+“宁德时代”+“富士康”+“英飞凌”，这几乎是比亚迪的天花板，但也意味着比亚迪要在和这些行业龙头的竞争中获胜。除了新能源整车有可能在销量上超越特斯拉外及估值不高的手机代工业务媲美富士康外，比亚迪的其他细分业务还有很长的路要走。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958293868,"gmtCreate":1673743649555,"gmtModify":1676538880127,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958293868","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983323758,"gmtCreate":1666155994275,"gmtModify":1676537715320,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094536006197120","authorIdStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"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