There is low profit visibility in the whole damn race. Imagine your 20 dollar subscription to Claude or ChatGPT but the company is actually spending 100 USD for the compute you are making.
Nice write up. But you did not take the second order and third order to its logical conclusion. You mention yield. So I am looking at TLT plays and also the refiners market where the real money is in Diesel and other derived products.
@Isleigh:$100 Oil: Don’t Just Buy Energy. Trade the Second-Order Winners and Losers.