Tokeida personal page - To The Moon

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23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199490797","media":"Barrons","summary":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.</p><p>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.</p><p>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.</p><p>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.</p><p>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.</p><p>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.</p><p>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.</p><p>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.</p><p>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.</p><p>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.</p><p>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.</p><p>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.</p><p>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.</p><p>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.</p><p>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.</p><p>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”</p><p>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.</p><p>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.</p></body></html>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-10 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1199490797","content_text":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055769757,"gmtCreate":1655311272079,"gmtModify":1676535610829,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055769757","repostId":"2243494679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243494679","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655306454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243494679?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Could Fail In FQ2 2022 - But The Patient May Be Rewarded By H2 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243494679","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment ThesisIt is evident that NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) will face a challenging YoY comparison from ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2><b>Investment Thesis</b></h2><p>It is evident that NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) will face a challenging YoY comparison from FQ2&#39;22 onwards, given the massive impact of China&#39;s ongoing Zero Covid Policy in Shanghai. The company would need to go above and beyond the impossible to achieve its delivery guidance of at least 23K vehicles in FQ2&#39;22, given that Tesla (TSLA) had also struggled to reach pre-lockdown deliveries in May 2022. Given the complexity of auto supply chains, it is unlikely that NIO would be able to report an impressive YoY comparison in FQ2&#39;22, thus suggesting a stagnant stock valuation and prices moving forward, if not a retracement. As a result, we would advise interested investors to wait and observe a little longer before adding more NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p>Risk-averse investors would be well advised of NIO&#39;s potential delisting from the NYSE stock market, though it is also apparent that a secondary listing in Singapore has been completed.</p><p>Nonetheless, despite the multiple uncertainties, we reiterate our stand since our previous analysis, that NIO remains a promising EV stock with an interesting battery swap concept. As <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the leading companies in China, the company stands to gain critical market share from Tesla in China, in the EU market, and potentially in the US market, upon its eventual entry in the future.</p><p>Therefore, NIO stock is highly suitable for speculative long-term investors, despite its current lack of profitability and the political uncertainty in China.</p><h2><b>NIO Reported Slowing Revenue Growth And Sustained Un-Profitability</b></h2><p><b>NIO Revenue and Gross Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5626d65bcd14ea9e68ba8f4282a46d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>NIO reported revenues of $1.56B in FQ1&#39;22, representing a YoY increase of 27.8%, though in line sequentially. The deceleration in revenue growth is partly attributed to supply chain production capacity for now, though we expect to see improvements by H2&#39;22. However, it is also apparent that there is increasing pressure on its gross margins, given that the company reports YoY lower gross margin of 14.6% in FQ1&#39;22 compared to 19.5% in FQ1&#39;21. With rising battery and chip costs, we expect NIO&#39;s gross margins to continue declining in FQ2&#39;22 before potentially recovering once the price hikes kick in by FQ3&#39;22.</p><p>In FQ1&#39;22, NIO also delivered 25.7K vehicles for the quarter, representing in line sequentially and an exemplary increase of 37.6% YoY. NIO CEO William Bin Li said:</p><blockquote>Despite the volatilities of the supply chain and the challenges in vehicle delivery resulting from the recent COVID-19 resurgence, we witnessed robust demand for our complementary products and achieved an all-time high order inflow in May 2022. (Seeking Alpha)</blockquote><p><b>NIO Net Income and Net Income Margin</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/704aba7cd5e743697335b2ee75e16612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>NIO reported net incomes of -$287.8 and net income margins of -18.4% in FQ1&#39;22, thereby highlighting its lack of profitability since its incorporation in 2014. The company has also been increasing its operational costs exponentially with a total of $595.6M expenses by FQ1&#39;22, representing 38.1% of its revenues and an increase of 207.1% YoY. Nonetheless, given that NIO has kept its operating expenses relatively stable at an average of 33.6% in the past eight quarters, it is apparent that the management has been rather disciplined in cost control as well.</p><p><b>NIO R&amp;D and Selling General &amp; Admin Expenses</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b76193ccef6cf51d6ce1cb26b52b84e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><b>NIO Long-Term Debt, Cash/ Equivalent, and Share Dilution</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/beb728a98a6a79d4c7cf83ca56b7a370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Due to its lack of profitability, it is evident that NIO will likely rely on a combination of long-term debt and share-based compensation (SBC) for its expanding operations. By FQ1&#39;22, the company had increased its reliance on debt by over 11-fold from $0.15B to $1.75B, while also diluting its shareholder by 55.5% since its IPO in September 2018. In FY2021 alone, NIO spent $158.5M in SBC, while drastically increasing the expenses to $74.6M by FQ1&#39;22, representing an increase of 390.2% YoY. Assuming a similar rate of SBC expenses, we may expect the company to report up to $300M for FY2022. That would be a concern for many early investors, given that the company is not expected to report net income profitability until FY2024.</p><h2>NIO Will Most Likely Fail To Deliver In FQ2&#39;22</h2><p><b>NIO Projected Revenue and Net Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e431100e75de1993cf165583a915cbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next three years, NIO is projected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 55.36% while also achieving profitability by FY2024 with a net income of $0.34B. For FY2022, consensus estimates that the company will report revenues of $9.15B with net incomes of -$0.88B, representing impressive YoY growth of 61% and 50%, respectively.</p><p>Nonetheless, given the ongoing Zero Covid Policy in China, there is a likelihood of a downwards re-rating for NIO&#39;s FY2022 revenue, given Shanghai&#39;s continuous lockdowns. The company itself had guided FQ2&#39;22 revenues in the range of $1.47B to $1.59B against consensus estimates of $1.79B, representing up to a 5.7% decline QoQ though a 12.2% growth YoY. We are also not convinced of NIO&#39;s delivery guidance of at least 23K vehicles for FQ2&#39;22, given that the company had only delivered 5.074K and 7.042K vehicles in April and May 2022 respectively, thereby requiring an ambitious delivery of 10.884K vehicles in June 2022. Though rather unlikely, we shall anticipate its delivery update by early July 2022.</p><p>In contrast, we may expect improvement by H2&#39;22 once NIO successfully expands its production capacity while also entering the auto market in Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. Nonetheless, it is also important to note that these require an easing of China&#39;s Covid policy while a stabling of the global supply chain issues. We shall continue to monitor the situation.</p><p>In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on NIO, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.</p><ul><li>NIO: Down 55% With Supercharged Growth - Time To Buy Now</li></ul><h2><b>So, Is NIO Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></h2><h2><b> </b></h2><p><b>NIO 3Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d07698f9480734680a03d86b698970\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>NIO is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 2.58x and NTM P/E of -47.22x, lower than its 3Y mean of 7.12x and -83.60x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $18.14, down 67% from its 52 weeks high of $55.13, though at a 55.4% premium from its 52 weeks low of $11.67. It is apparent that the NIO stock has been on sideways price action since our last analysis in April 2022.</p><p><b>NIO 3Y Stock Price</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1ad9132060d18429ffb22f39607a5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Given the macro issues and China&#39;s unrelenting Zero Covid Policy, we are of the opinion that pain will not be ending anytime soon. Therefore, NIO&#39;s delivery would likely continue to be impacted until then, further reducing any chances of stock recovery in the short term.</p><p>Though consensus estimates had rated NIO as an attractive buy with a price target of $38.33, we are of a more conservative opinion of a potential retracement by early July 2022, assuming that the company could not deliver on its FQ2&#39;23 vehicle target. As a result, we encourage investors to wait for a deeper retracement before adding to their portfolio.</p><p>Therefore, we <i>rate NIO stock as a Hold for now.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Could Fail In FQ2 2022 - But The Patient May Be Rewarded By H2 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Could Fail In FQ2 2022 - But The Patient May Be Rewarded By H2 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-15 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518234-nio-could-fail-q2-2022-but-patience-rewarded-h2-2022><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisIt is evident that NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) will face a challenging YoY comparison from FQ2'22 onwards, given the massive impact of China's ongoing Zero Covid Policy in Shanghai. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518234-nio-could-fail-q2-2022-but-patience-rewarded-h2-2022\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518234-nio-could-fail-q2-2022-but-patience-rewarded-h2-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243494679","content_text":"Investment ThesisIt is evident that NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) will face a challenging YoY comparison from FQ2'22 onwards, given the massive impact of China's ongoing Zero Covid Policy in Shanghai. The company would need to go above and beyond the impossible to achieve its delivery guidance of at least 23K vehicles in FQ2'22, given that Tesla (TSLA) had also struggled to reach pre-lockdown deliveries in May 2022. Given the complexity of auto supply chains, it is unlikely that NIO would be able to report an impressive YoY comparison in FQ2'22, thus suggesting a stagnant stock valuation and prices moving forward, if not a retracement. As a result, we would advise interested investors to wait and observe a little longer before adding more NIO stock to their portfolios.Risk-averse investors would be well advised of NIO's potential delisting from the NYSE stock market, though it is also apparent that a secondary listing in Singapore has been completed.Nonetheless, despite the multiple uncertainties, we reiterate our stand since our previous analysis, that NIO remains a promising EV stock with an interesting battery swap concept. As one of the leading companies in China, the company stands to gain critical market share from Tesla in China, in the EU market, and potentially in the US market, upon its eventual entry in the future.Therefore, NIO stock is highly suitable for speculative long-term investors, despite its current lack of profitability and the political uncertainty in China.NIO Reported Slowing Revenue Growth And Sustained Un-ProfitabilityNIO Revenue and Gross IncomeS&P Capital IQNIO reported revenues of $1.56B in FQ1'22, representing a YoY increase of 27.8%, though in line sequentially. The deceleration in revenue growth is partly attributed to supply chain production capacity for now, though we expect to see improvements by H2'22. However, it is also apparent that there is increasing pressure on its gross margins, given that the company reports YoY lower gross margin of 14.6% in FQ1'22 compared to 19.5% in FQ1'21. With rising battery and chip costs, we expect NIO's gross margins to continue declining in FQ2'22 before potentially recovering once the price hikes kick in by FQ3'22.In FQ1'22, NIO also delivered 25.7K vehicles for the quarter, representing in line sequentially and an exemplary increase of 37.6% YoY. NIO CEO William Bin Li said:Despite the volatilities of the supply chain and the challenges in vehicle delivery resulting from the recent COVID-19 resurgence, we witnessed robust demand for our complementary products and achieved an all-time high order inflow in May 2022. (Seeking Alpha)NIO Net Income and Net Income MarginS&P Capital IQNIO reported net incomes of -$287.8 and net income margins of -18.4% in FQ1'22, thereby highlighting its lack of profitability since its incorporation in 2014. The company has also been increasing its operational costs exponentially with a total of $595.6M expenses by FQ1'22, representing 38.1% of its revenues and an increase of 207.1% YoY. Nonetheless, given that NIO has kept its operating expenses relatively stable at an average of 33.6% in the past eight quarters, it is apparent that the management has been rather disciplined in cost control as well.NIO R&D and Selling General & Admin ExpensesS&P Capital IQNIO Long-Term Debt, Cash/ Equivalent, and Share DilutionS&P Capital IQDue to its lack of profitability, it is evident that NIO will likely rely on a combination of long-term debt and share-based compensation (SBC) for its expanding operations. By FQ1'22, the company had increased its reliance on debt by over 11-fold from $0.15B to $1.75B, while also diluting its shareholder by 55.5% since its IPO in September 2018. In FY2021 alone, NIO spent $158.5M in SBC, while drastically increasing the expenses to $74.6M by FQ1'22, representing an increase of 390.2% YoY. Assuming a similar rate of SBC expenses, we may expect the company to report up to $300M for FY2022. That would be a concern for many early investors, given that the company is not expected to report net income profitability until FY2024.NIO Will Most Likely Fail To Deliver In FQ2'22NIO Projected Revenue and Net IncomeS&P Capital IQOver the next three years, NIO is projected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 55.36% while also achieving profitability by FY2024 with a net income of $0.34B. For FY2022, consensus estimates that the company will report revenues of $9.15B with net incomes of -$0.88B, representing impressive YoY growth of 61% and 50%, respectively.Nonetheless, given the ongoing Zero Covid Policy in China, there is a likelihood of a downwards re-rating for NIO's FY2022 revenue, given Shanghai's continuous lockdowns. The company itself had guided FQ2'22 revenues in the range of $1.47B to $1.59B against consensus estimates of $1.79B, representing up to a 5.7% decline QoQ though a 12.2% growth YoY. We are also not convinced of NIO's delivery guidance of at least 23K vehicles for FQ2'22, given that the company had only delivered 5.074K and 7.042K vehicles in April and May 2022 respectively, thereby requiring an ambitious delivery of 10.884K vehicles in June 2022. Though rather unlikely, we shall anticipate its delivery update by early July 2022.In contrast, we may expect improvement by H2'22 once NIO successfully expands its production capacity while also entering the auto market in Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. Nonetheless, it is also important to note that these require an easing of China's Covid policy while a stabling of the global supply chain issues. We shall continue to monitor the situation.In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on NIO, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.NIO: Down 55% With Supercharged Growth - Time To Buy NowSo, Is NIO Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold? NIO 3Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQNIO is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 2.58x and NTM P/E of -47.22x, lower than its 3Y mean of 7.12x and -83.60x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $18.14, down 67% from its 52 weeks high of $55.13, though at a 55.4% premium from its 52 weeks low of $11.67. It is apparent that the NIO stock has been on sideways price action since our last analysis in April 2022.NIO 3Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaGiven the macro issues and China's unrelenting Zero Covid Policy, we are of the opinion that pain will not be ending anytime soon. Therefore, NIO's delivery would likely continue to be impacted until then, further reducing any chances of stock recovery in the short term.Though consensus estimates had rated NIO as an attractive buy with a price target of $38.33, we are of a more conservative opinion of a potential retracement by early July 2022, assuming that the company could not deliver on its FQ2'23 vehicle target. As a result, we encourage investors to wait for a deeper retracement before adding to their portfolio.Therefore, we rate NIO stock as a Hold for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO.SI":0.6,"09866":0.6,"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953375557,"gmtCreate":1673178360679,"gmtModify":1676538795353,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953375557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958561392,"gmtCreate":1673777732916,"gmtModify":1676538884408,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958561392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958835527,"gmtCreate":1673679266069,"gmtModify":1676538874426,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958835527","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958305093,"gmtCreate":1673624738513,"gmtModify":1676538867017,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958305093","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959535466,"gmtCreate":1673019140755,"gmtModify":1676538770757,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959535466","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927604462,"gmtCreate":1672459273656,"gmtModify":1676538694379,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927604462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922509676,"gmtCreate":1671789521496,"gmtModify":1676538593878,"author":{"id":"4098752588564740","authorId":"4098752588564740","name":"Tokeida","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789e95019b2f7f3d1f5201d81f160c44","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098752588564740","authorIdStr":"4098752588564740"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922509676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],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