Fun: AI is back as the market's darling with the Iran US war subsiding However things popped up all over with the latest being Iran saying the Hormuz is opened for commercial ships, then reversed course in less than half a day. Supposedly because US has not lifted the Hormuz blockade for Iran's ports. What a topsy turvy rollercoaster ride!

A good sturdy umbrella is always nice to have, but would have loved a steeper discount. Nice to have such events though [Happy]

Also, this continuing growth makes me wonder if the market will react negatively to any setbacks between Iran and USA, let's say they really have another meeting and it falls apart, would there be a huge slide or will it just pretend nothing happened? Rumours are going around that USA will be taking military action in Cuba next, would the market have any sense to react accordingly...

Nflx has been on a general uptrend for a few weeks now. I am expecting decent results for earnings, but a slight correction due to the sustained over enthusiasm. Let's see.

I am curious, is the Capital World even a serious play? Or is it a buy now for future gains thing. The price is concerning to say the least. So the US blockading Iran, who is blocking Hormuz... that should have been the play from the start, not a war. But we will be starting on the next rounds of oil prices going up.

I recall seeing that memory producers can produce more, but do not want to because they expect the AI bubble to bust and therefore have an excess glut. I wonder if optics have that outlook too because you don't want to be caught holding on to too much material when most companies go under and then be unwillingly caught in the dominoes falling. Honestly do not comprehend how the competition is not thinning out, especially with the fact that profitability is a huge issue that every company is kicking down the road and energy took a big hit.

I was looking at Parkway Life but it seemed relatively stable, maybe because it was in the healthcare line and has a different sort of exposure in relation to the Iran US conflict. However there were some moments when it slid when I expected otherwise, guess I am not cut out for this [Cry]

It is not just oil rebounding 3% that can be discounted as a minor plot development, it is Iran making things difficult and risking the wrath of the Donald. If somehow he believes that this is an egg on his face and that Iran simply will not obey, Mr. Trunp might just decide to press the proverbial button and "wipe out a civilisation" just to look like a big boy, then the jitters and gains now will look like specks of dust on the wind, so small and so inconsequential.

I have a lack of faith in Openai, and believe they will struggle to ipo with a bang. At work, the whispers are going around the Claude is simply better and that Chatgpt is coasting on being the bigger name and the first big player. But results will gradually speak for itself, as corporate users become the market that these AI companies fight for. Aside from that, there is the constant need to keep ahead of the competition, whether by buying the newest Nvda chips and further eating away at profits, or looking to improve the model (and paying the engineers? Or do they trust their AI to code its future iteration [Thinking]). Then there is the spending on energy to run data centres, to produce the results requested by users. And that part has been hit hard by the Usa Iran conflict, so is th

There is only so much users that can make use of these AI models all while populations are gradually shrinking in developed nations (who are more technologically focused and using AI as a tool), and you simply have too much competition to try and charge users a hand and a leg, or slow boil them by gradually cranking the prices. Then there is the factor of the media constantly keeping track of which company has the best model, and users are particularly sensitive about getting their bang for the buck, so if you are expensive and yet do not produce the goods, they will jump ship. In my workplace there are multiple subscriptions provided, but everyone knows that corporations simply will not be willing to incur overlapped spend on these AI models, eventually the head honchos will want to tri

I think part of Pltr success is the undue hype like Tsla, both have similar meme/yolo status in the eyes of a portion of investors. This factor results in the stocks being overvalued and prone to shocks. Ironically, both companies have leaders that seem to have questionable ethics and seem to have money as their top priority. Greed will always be fueling the gains, the unending want of greater wealth, even through unscrupulous means. (They are happy to sidle up to leaders around the globe, who have a lack of morals, and profit off less tax, and off human suffering. Pltr through encouraging police brutality and war, Tsla through poor quality and dangerous FSD mode that kill users, and musk creeping around dismantling democracy)

As expected, the ceasefire was fragile and Iran started to float the news that Hormuz will remain shut Does not look like the us president is taking action yet, but oil prices has started climbing again I would think if Iran does not make it work, the Donald will follow through on his initial plans after market closes in the states on Friday. After all his playbook is to splash good news before markets open for the week, and wreck havoc after market closes for the week.

Isn't that wonderful, any rally could be cut in half by another disruption, but the rally came in so hard and so quickly that investors might just want that to scrape out good value. I felt that the war had minimal impact, the stock market was waiting on any "good news" from the man in the white house, so it could start climbing. By the time the ceasefire was agreed, it felt like nothing too significant happened since everyone already was recovering. I wonder if the ceasefire does not hold, and the reaction of the market, would there even be a big slide The Hormuz chokehold will indeed not be going away any time soon, so what are we really rebounding so quickly for...

Assuming the vouchers was brought forward to help with cost of living issues, is there going to be an added round? Also diesel is out of control, the pinch is not only hitting industrial and commercial vehicles (delivery trucks, vans, etc.), but drivers who thought a diesel engine would have brought huge savings. The costs will be going up for everyone and will come down too slowly.

It almost feels like Iran is playing along with Trump (who wants to prop up the markets), by allowing news of a possible ceasefire to come out. Knowing how things went for the past couple of weeks, the market likely over reacted and shot upwards. Only for that hope to be popped hours late by Iran (the reporting before that seemed so convincing, on the cusp of a 45 days ceasefire? Wow!). I still believe that Iran has some clout through their approach via assymetrical warfare. They cannot truly wipe out the usa, but they can fire random missiles and drones to harass and occasionally hit surrounding infrastructure that are of value (e.g. middle east amazon data centres). There will be more action to be had: unstoppable force meets small but immovable object.

Done!

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ the weather has been a little dry and hot for a few days now and the spring time Qing Ming rain is a good respite, both for myself and the plants I see while walking around. Got caught by a random downpour though, so that was a little annoying. The Good Friday/Easter Sunday combo is also a nice break, and whether you observe the holiday, the fun side of enjoying various chocolate is a thing for all ages. I have been enjoying some self made chocolate egg myself.

$POP MART(09992)$ has been in total anarchy. Despite posting reasonable numbers, it seems the market has determined that Labubu falling off the hype train is a killer blow and started dumping the shares, leading to constant slides. Maybe it was exacerbated by the chaotic global environment due to the Iran US war, but it likely will keep taking a beating until morale improves, or somehow Pop Mart strikes gold. I believe there's an avenue for Pop Mart to pursue collaborations with known and popular IP to create a win-win scenario, but that would not be as significant.

There will be more pain ahead, if Iran was the tired party and USA can thump its chest saying that it has won, maybe it will be a start of something good, because everyone is still so beholden to the US markets. Embarrassingly enough, Iran has been stubborn enough and USA looks to be an extremely frustrated figure, constantly having to declare that they have won, will win, yet still continue fighting. There will now be a more problematic Iran in the region who will not hesitate to lash out at anyone. The biggest curiosity I have is how the markets will react if it is obvious that the US did not win, will it simply celebrate the war ending and go up, or will it worry about further shakiness and stay anaemic.

Also, with rising energy costs, AI stocks will take a hit because they guzzle on electricity. They are struggling to even make money, and constantly have to burn cash to keep up with the latest chip to have the best computing power. The next few quarters will start to reflect a spike in expenditure for energy and the market will not respond kindly. Openai might just be dead in the water even before they get listed.