Based on the latest futures market, the probability of a rate hike in September 2026 has dropped to 34.7%, down from more than 50% just a week ago. No rate hike is good news for AI capex. Companies like Alphabet are issuing new bonds to fund their expansion, and a hike would have raised their cost of funds, squeezed profits, and possibly delayed plans to borrow more and expand faster to meet demand. That worry is off the table for now, at least for the next two months, so they can carry on. Commodity prices are one thing worth watching. Not just oil, but copper, corn, and other raw materials that go into whatever we produce. They tend to lead the inflation numbers rather than follow them. The prolonged Iran War sparked fears that inflation would come roaring back. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Many investors assume a new high means the market is expensive and due for a fall. It’s the opposite. Markets hit new highs because they’re bullish, and a new high can be broken many times in a single year. A new high isn’t a ceiling. It’s proof the market has the energy to keep breaking through. You can see the track record of S&P 500 making numerous new highs in the past years. Look at new highs versus new lows on the NYSE (not the S&P 500). We’re seeing more highs than lows, and that’s strength, not weakness. In a bear market, new lows outnumber new highs. And if valuations were truly overstretched, we’d see new highs spike far above new lows, the way they did in February, just before the Iran War AI trades corrected heavily over the last two months, and that flushed out a lot o

The reality is there are plenty of other cybersecurity stocks out there, and one of them doesn’t compete head on with these three market leaders at all. Instead, it focuses on vulnerability detection. Think of vulnerability detection as hiring a highly trained security inspector to walk around your house every single day with a clipboard, aggressively checking for weaknesses before a burglar finds them. In an AI era where hacking grows more powerful by the month, and AI use keeps proliferating, vulnerability detection only becomes more important. Companies and organizations need to find their own weak points before malicious actors using AI find them first. The takeaway for the market was blunt. AI powered hacking had arrived, and established cybersecurity business models suddenly looked o

Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 is the next Chinese name to make a splash in Western media. It ranks alongside the frontier models from Claude and ChatGPT, and that alone is a feat. The naysayers say it was achieved through distillation and the like. Maybe. But if it were that easy, every lab would be doing it and every model would be frontier class.Being frontier is one thing. Cost is another. Claude is known to be expensive. ChatGPT has managed to bring its costs down. Kimi K3 still comes in more than 50% cheaper than ChatGPT. As good as the West, at a fraction of the price. For cost conscious users, that is reason enough to switch.It also remains a few years behind its U.S. and Korean peers technologically. Strict export controls mean it cannot easily acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography equip

SpaceX is a lottery ticket kind of stock. It defies almost every principle of sound fundamental investing. First, the valuation is always a stretch. Same story with Tesla, priced wildly above its competitors. I accept that a market leader deserves a premium, but the gap suggests something more than that. There is an Elon Musk premium embedded in the share price, and it is substantial. Second, much of what you are buying sits in the future. Colonising Mars or the Moon, data centres in space, humanoid robots. None of it is commercialised. Yet it is priced today as though it already is. That is not valuation. That is buying into a vision. So if you want to invest in Musk’s companies, you cannot use the conventional lens. Which is exactly why these stocks are so divisive. On one side, the nays

SpaceX’s fall has dragged the rest of the space sector down with it. A handful of these names are down more than 20%. No surprise there.With both stocks sliding, Musk has lost his trillionaire status. Over $300 billion gone in about a month. That is more than the entire net worth of second placed Larry Page. It wasn’t just SpaceX. Tesla fell hard after earnings and is now down 29% year to date. The culprit was negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion in Q2 2026, as Tesla spends big on AI, on top of robotaxi and Optimus. Investors have turned sensitive towards heavy capex spenders, and Tesla has just joined that group. The selling is consistent with how the market is treating everyoneSpaceX closed at $201.80 on 16 June 2026. It has since tumbled 43% to $115.07, which also puts it 15% below

Today, Warren Buffett is one of the richest people in the world - a $149 billion net worth. He built that fortune by compounding Berkshire Hathaway at a 19.9% rate a year for the last 60 years. That’s nearly double the return of the S&P 500 Index.Warren Buffett was doing what most people aren’t doing today: Value investing. And Buffett's secret to achieving such enormous gains was to pick companies that could greatly grow their earnings without spending much additional capital. For most of his career, he had a mentor, a coach and a close friend, Charlie Munger whom he could bounce ideas off of (yes, having a mentor and partners are important). Together, they looked for wonderful stock ideas to accumulate. Think about the big entrepreneurs on Forbes who sold software, ran furniture comp

DeepSeek shook the semiconductor industry and the stock market with the release of its R1 reasoning model. R1 matched top-tier models like OpenAI’s o1, yet it was reportedly trained for a fraction of the cost, around $6 million.The good news is that AI stocks recovered, and then some. They surged to record highs as Western models kept improving and held their lead, quashing fears that cheaper Chinese models could catch up. For a while, that justified the massive capital expenditure the West had committed to. Most AI models are judged on how well they answer a question, write a Python script, or pass an exam. Chip design is a different beast. It is a gruelling, multi-step engineering process. By completing all of it autonomously over 48 hours with no human intervention, Impressive as it is,

For the past month, the market has been whispering that the AI trade is done. Memory stocks took the brunt of it, on the belief that chip prices had peaked. Their share prices fell hard. Alphabet’s guidance says otherwise. Higher capex and a shortage of AI cloud compute mean the spending cycle is still running. Alphabet has stopped its share buyback because it needs the cash for AI, while it continues to issue stock to raise funds and to reward employees with options. Share count is up 1.2% in six months. That is dilution, and it is new. Previously the buybacks more than offset the issuance. On top of that, Alphabet took on $19.1B of mandatory convertible preferred shares and $56.2B of debt. And the fundraising is not ending soon. Roughly $106B of securities are expected to be issued over

Oil prices rose and the energy sector did well as a result. For years the AI trade has lifted technology, and just this past month we saw financials and healthcare take their turn. So there is no single sector that wins forever. But there is always at least one sector that is working. That is the basis for a rotation strategy. You move capital into the sectors that are doing well, or that you expect to do well. The method varies. It can be driven by macro, by fundamentals, or by momentum. Sector rotation is the established idea. Factor rotation is the newer cousin, and many investors are not even familiar with factors to begin with.Factors are characteristics of stocks with evidence of outperformance. Value, quality, momentum, size and low volatility are the foremost ones. Factors rotate t

will AI AI stocks will crash. ?  It’s just a matter of time, though no one knows exactly when, or how much higher they’ll climb before gravity catches up. That makes them poor long-term holdings Let’s take a break from AI stocks, especially since we’re starting to see a sector rotation underway. We might be better off looking for investment ideas built for the long haul. The difference is that you buy AI stocks because they are moving fast. You buy long-term stocks because they last. Many investors conflate the two and get into trouble.example beats McDonald’s. It’s a place where parents bring their kids, and one day those kids bring their own. It’s intergenerational and never goes out of style. Compare that to a fashion label tagged to an older generation and shunned by the next. Thi

$FoundationHealth(FHH.SI)$  is going up can buy now 

Property developers and cyclical industries have continued to face significant headwinds despite favourable long-term themes. China’s property sector remains under pressure from weak housing demand, financing constraints, and skepticism over a sustained recovery, weighing on developers such as Longfor Group. Meanwhile, electric vehicle and renewable energy companies, including BYD, BYD Electronic, Li Auto, and Xinyi Solar, have corrected amid price wars, slowing growth, margin pressure, and industry overcapacity. Commodity producers such as Zijin Mining, CMOC, and Chalco have fared relatively better due to long-term demand for critical minerals, but their shares have also pulled back as investors took profits and reacted to concerns over global economic growth and commodity price volatilit

These AI stocks have rallied so hard that they are now hypersensitive to any whiff of weaker demand. The moment demand looks shaky, the selloff follows.Investors are trimming AI exposure, not abandoning the thesis. I don’t think this is 2000 all over again, yet. Once the deleveraging plays out, these stocks should stabilize. And frankly, after nine straight weeks of gains and multi bagger moves packed into a short stretch, a breather was overdue. It’s just that the breather can look like a sharp, ugly pullback, the kind most investors aren’t prepared for. The key reason I’m not sounding the alarm is that fundamentals still look solid and supply is still tight. But this is a spot worth watching. Hyperscalers have poured billions into building capacity. If we’re at the point where exces

After reporting earnings on Wednesday evening, Micron (MU) surged nearly 16% on Thursday. Not 16% from some beaten-down base. This was a stock that had already hit an all-time high of $1,134 just days earlier. And it still popped 16%.Micron posted fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion. That’s not a typo. Just last year in the same quarter, they did $9.3 billion. In other words, revenue more than quadrupled year-over-year. Analysts expected Q4 revenue of around $43 billion. Micron guided to $50 billion.That’s nearly a $7 billion beat on guidance. Free cash flow in Q4 is expected to exceed $30 billion. HBM3E and HBM4 are fully booked through calendar 2027, with demand already extending into 2028. They also locked in $22 billion in strategic customer agreements, including $18 billion in up

The USD depreciated and gold prices rose. Combined with growing investor awareness of US indebtedness, people caught the fever and started buying gold, which in turn drove up demand. Higher prices begot more buying, and the cycle fed on itself With the pace of cuts decelerating for 2026, and because markets are forward-looking, the previously aggressive easing path was priced out and the USD strengthened. Gold, which had risen on the expectation of rate cuts and a weaker dollar, suddenly became vulnerable. Add in unwinding speculative demand, and gold struggled to defend its levels and began to fall. And that was all before the Iran war. The outbreak of conflict worsened the outlook for gold. Higher energy prices mean more dollars are needed to transact, boosting demand for the USD and lif

Few stocks have ever risen as violently. Since its Hong Kong IPO in June 2024 at HK$40.50, Laopu’s shares climbed almost without pause, peaking near HK1000 in July 2025, a gain of roughly 25x, or more than 2300,% in barely a year. At the height it ranked among the best-performing stocks in the world, and the market treated heritage gold as an unstoppable structural story capable of absorbing any amount of expansion. The idea that the shares could fall meaningfully felt almost unthinkable. Despite this explosive growth, the stock experienced a substantial correction. The reason was not deteriorating demand but concerns surrounding capital intensity and balance sheet risk. To support rapid expansion and meet strong consumer demand, inventories surged dramatically, forcing the company to tie

The road to the Iran peace deal was an edgy affair that dragged on for months. The ceasefire that began back in April was only a temporary truce to give negotiations room to breathe, not peace itself. And even during that truce, there were enough sparks to derail the talks. Israel struck Lebanon, the US kept its naval blockade on Iran’s ports, missiles were still flying, and Trump pressured about attacking Iran. Messy. I’ll be honest, the timing made me raise an eyebrow. That recovery came right before Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, acting as lead mediator, announced that the US and Iran had agreed on the final text to end the war. Insider trading? I’m not saying that. But the sequence was convenient. Stocks pushed higher into 12 June, the day SpaceX made its blockbuster debut. P

On 2 March 2026, Nvidia announced a $4 billion combined investment in Coherent and Lumentum. The investment was split right down the middle, with $2 billion going to each. In early May 2026 (6 May), Nvidia made a $500 million strategic investment in Corning, structured as warrants. On top of that upfront $500 million, Nvidia also holds a warrant to buy up to 15 million shares at an exercise price of $180. If it eventually exercises everything, its total potential stake could reach around $3.2 billion. The partnership is a strategic supply-chain move. In exchange, Corning committed to expanding its U.S. optical fiber production capacity by more than 50% (and its broader optical-connectivity capacity tenfold), building three new U.S. plants to directly feed Nvidia’s AI ecosystem. Nvidia is b

Adidas came back swinging as a kit sponsor. It has the most teams in the tournament, dressing 14 countries. More countries means more jerseys to sell to supporters, and the more the merrier, especially for crowd favourites like reigning champion Argentina and World Cup hopeful Spain. The picture was completely different in World Cup 2022, when Nike sponsored the most teams and Adidas came in second. So Adidas has wrestled the throne away for 2026. And let’s not forget that Adidas has supplied the official match ball for every World Cup since 1970. So it’s likely Adidas’s revenue gets a bigger bump than the other two this year. Investors seem to have already taken note. Adidas stock has jumped about 19% over the past month. Nike and Puma haven’t come close, up about 4% over the same period.