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avatarJacksNiffler
01-23 16:51

MSFT's Last dance before earnings

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ is up over 4% in a single day and one of the most volatile and biggest days in its history.There are a couple reasons why it's up so much:The hottest Stargate hype of late, but not really too much about Microsoft.Although there is an inflow of funds in the AI circle, Microsoft will also share the benefits.But the secondary market currently lacks channels to invest directly in OpenAI, so the logic of speculating on MSFT to speculate on OpenAI is the same as buying $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ to speculate on Starlink, which is actually a premium.Guess if that premium is still there if OpenAI goes public?There is a lot of hype about next week's earnings expectations, but it doesn't take int
MSFT's Last dance before earnings
avatarJacksNiffler
01-21 11:50

Pelosi: How to Sell Deep ITM Calls like a Pro? (With new position)

Old Demoness Pelosi announced new positions the day before Trump's inauguration (probably coincidentally), most of which are similar in style to the previous ones, with the main layout still in AI, but with some stylistic changes:Added AI application layer positions:Added $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ Opened a small position in Medical AI company $Tempus AI(TEM)$ Lowered hardware position by a small amount:Lowered position in $Apple(AAPL)$ (sold 31,600 shares)Maintained position in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (s
Pelosi: How to Sell Deep ITM Calls like a Pro? (With new position)

Why Tik Tok needs to link Trump THAT MUCH?

Tik Tok US went offline on the 19th, then was available again on the 20th.It also has a very artfully written pop-up window description:At the top of the pop-up is TikTok's colorful logo, and underneath it says "Welcome back!"andFollowed by a text, "Thanks for your patience and support. As a result of President Trump's efforts, TikTok is back in the U.S.!"(Thanks for your patience and support.Thanks to President Trump, TikTok is back in the U.S.!).And then below that, "You can continue to create, share, and discover all the things you love on TikTok."It's also telling that Trump is mentioned so strongly and so many times:Sort of a thank you to Trump for his pivotal role in the turnaround of TikTok's fortunes; after all, by granting a 90-day grace period, TikTok could have had time to negot
Why Tik Tok needs to link Trump THAT MUCH?

Highlights on TSMC Q4 Earnings

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 4Q2024 Earnings Highlight:1. CoWoS demand growth, denial of order cutsStrong demand driver: Demand for CoWoS technology is growing significantly, with a surge in orders from customers such as NVIDIA, and CoWoS-L demand is expected to grow 1018% year-on-year in 2025.Capacity expansion plan: TSMC expects to increase its monthly capacity to 75,000 wafers by the end of 2025 to cope with the continuously growing market demand.2. Strong performance in packaging and memory markets, strong demand in FY25Packaging business expansion: strong demand for HPC and AI chips, advanced packaging business revenue share increased from 8% to over 10%. over 10% revenue share by 2024, demand expected to grow 113% by 2025.Memory
Highlights on TSMC Q4 Earnings

Is Meta to cut 5% low-performers a good move?

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ recently announced in an internal memo that it plans to lay off approximately 5% of its workforce in 2025, primarily targeting underperforming employees.The implementation is expected to begin on Feb. 10, and about 3,600 employees could be affected.According to Zuckerberg, this is an effort to raise the company's overall performance management standards in anticipation of an "intense year".Typically, underperforming employees are gradually managed out of the company over the course of a year, and the process will be accelerated this time around.At the same time, Meta has also said that it will offer generous severance packages to laid-off employees.This is Meta's move to further optimize its operations after massive la
Is Meta to cut 5% low-performers a good move?

Venture Global IPO: Biggest Energy IPO On Trump Era??

Venture Global, a prominent U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, is preparing for a significant initial public offering (IPO) aimed at achieving a valuation of up to $110 billionSome Key DetailsIPO Size and Pricing: The company plans to offer 50 million shares priced between $40 and $46 each, potentially raising up to $2.3 billion if the shares sell at the upper end of this range.Market Context: This IPO is expected to be the largest by an energy company in the U.S. since 2013, surpassing previous records in the sector. The timing aligns with a growing global demand for LNG amid a transition towards cleaner energy sources.Company Background: Founded in 2013, Venture Global has quickly established itself as a major player in the LNG market, operating facilitie
Venture Global IPO: Biggest Energy IPO On Trump Era??

Tik Tok made Tesla another buy?

Cause: The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled to uphold the ban on TikTok - the U.S. will force a shutdown of TikTok on Jan. 19 (the day before Trump's inauguration) if TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, doesn't sell the app.However, ByteDance has explicitly refused to sell. starting January 13, some US users moved to the new social platform, and Xiaohongshu (RedNotes) topped the App Store's free charts.There are rumors of Tik Tok sale to Elon Musk:The sale of Tik Tok to Musk seems to be an emotionally acceptable outcome for China, the U.S. government (both the Biden and Trump administrations), business partners, and Tik Tok itself;If Elon buys Tik Tok, it's also likely that it will be merged into the existing X platform (but operated independently under a separate brand), and then raise m
Tik Tok made Tesla another buy?

How To Arbitrage From the "Jan.9" Closed Day?

Since January 9 is a special "closed day" this year, there are some arbitrage opportunities.On January 8, there were some arbitrage opportunities in the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ expiration dates of January 8 and January 9 for two at-the-money (ATM) options (mainly focused on the 515 strike).Because of the January 9 vacation, the options expiring on January 9 will settle at the January 8 closing price, and the theoretical value of the two options as calculated by the BSM model should be the same.However, a spread occurs.Therefore, if one buys 1.8 of the 515's PUT and sells 1.9 of the 515's PUT at the same time, one can easily eat the Premium.As an analogy, at the close of trading on January 6, QQQ's 515's PUT for January 8 expiration averaged $0.61, while
How To Arbitrage From the "Jan.9" Closed Day?

Estimates on Palantir in 2025

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ell nearly 8% on Tuesday after Cathie Wood's Ark Investments ETF "liquidated" $15 million worth of shares.The $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ now has almost no position in PLTR, which at its peak made up more than 5% of ARK's portfolio.The position was liquidated late last year and continued to sell off continuously through January.Separately, $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ also initiated coverage on the stock on Monday with a "hold" rating and a $60 price target.Currently, the market is not expecting much from PLTR through 2025, and believes thatPalantir's valuation is unsustainable, trading at extremely high multiples, with a price-to-sales ra
Estimates on Palantir in 2025

How much is the new Fubo worth?

Prior to this case, $fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ had been fighting an "antitrust lawsuit" from Venu Sports.Venu Sports is a sports streaming service launched by $Walt Disney(DIS)$ $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ and $Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$ a joint sports streaming service.Fubo believes that Venu is deliberately motivated to prevent distributors like Fubo from accessing unbundled sports content, and therefore can would likely substantially lessen competition in the marketplace, and therefore progress through the end of 2024 has been made to gain the support of the DOJ, and also the support of a number of states, including NY, CA
How much is the new Fubo worth?

Why Apple And Tesla the first to diverge?

On the first trading day of 2025, U.S. stocks opened lower and higher, with $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ reversing several times, and $.DJI(.DJI)$ rising 360 points before turning down nearly 370 points.The plate is seriously polarized, $Apple(AAPL)$ fell nearly 3%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ eep down 7.6%, but the chip index $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ energy $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ and photovoltaics are higher.Apple's pullback was relatively unexpected.There is no big news
Why Apple And Tesla the first to diverge?

How does Squid Game2 mean to Netflix?

$Netflix(NFLX)$ s The Squid Game 2 topped the TV show charts in 92 countries after its launch on December 26th, with numerous brands partnering with it to launch co-branded products and a massive global rollout.Due to the abrupt ending of the second season, the unlikable protagonist, and the irrationality of many of the plot devices, word-of-mouth has been far weaker than that of the first season, which could put a damper on future continuity;In 2025, $Walt Disney(DIS)$ will also have a number of heavyweight movies and TV productions on the shelves, and I'm afraid that it will also be a "big year" for content, and relatively speaking, competition will also intensify.Is "The Squid Game 2" Netflix's saving g
How does Squid Game2 mean to Netflix?

Severely damaged US Bonds Market is still facing a major difficulty in 2025?

The U.S. bond market has begun 2025 under a cloud, with a series of complex and intractable debt issues coming up one after the other, casting a thick shadow over the market outlook.First, a number of debts will mature in the current year.In terms of debt maturities, up to nearly $3 trillion of U.S. debt is expected to mature in the current year, with short-term debt taking up a sizable portion of this amount, and these maturities account for nearly 10 percent of current government debt.The root of this phenomenon lies in the fact that over the past several years, the U.S. Treasury has issued short-term bonds on a large scale in response to a variety of economic conditions and funding needs.Today, these short-term debts are maturing in a concentrated manner, putting the market under tremen
Severely damaged US Bonds Market is still facing a major difficulty in 2025?
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-31

Is Trump the key to Fannie Mae's?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has recently expressed optimism regarding the common shares of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) $Fannie Mae(FNMFO)$ and $Freddie Mac(FMCCS)$ , suggesting they present a significant investment opportunity with "large asymmetric upside" at their current prices. Ackman has held shares in both companies for over a decade through his fund, Pershing Square, and believes that there is a credible path for these entities to exit conservatorship within the next two years, particularly if Donald Trump is re-elected as PresidentKey Points from Ackman's AnalysisInvestment Potential: Ackman argues that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could generate over $300 billion in pro
Is Trump the key to Fannie Mae's?
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-19

Hindenberg's SHORT is fatal to Sezzle

Unlike Grizzly, Hindenburg Research has a pretty good shorting history.Yesterday it published a short on $Sezzle Inc(SEZL)$ , a report that sheds light on the company's financials, business model, and the risks it faces.Here's a summary of the key takeaways:Overachieving Financial PerformanceSezzle Inc. was founded in 2016 in Minneapolis, MN to provide Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services.In the third quarter of 2024, the company had 2.7 million active users and 23,000 partner merchants.Transactional revenue accounted for approximately 52% of its revenue and subscription services accounted for approximately 33%.In the third quarter of 2024, Sezzle's total revenue jumped 71.3% year-over-year to $70 million, and net income jumped 1093% year-over-year t
Hindenberg's SHORT is fatal to Sezzle
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-18

Top 25 Choice for 2025

Top 25 Choice for 2025
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-17

Quantum stocks are not same as AI: Take RGTI as example

Core logic: The commercialization prospects, monetization paths, and timetables are different.Stakeholder disclosure: I hold the common stock but do not intend to hold it for a long time.Recently, quantum computing stocks have risen sharply. For example, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ launched the "Quantum Embark" service, and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ 's "Willow" quantum chip and other new developments have heated up this field. However, quantum computing cannot be commercialized on a large scale so quickly. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Take $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ that I am following. Although it has also risen a lot following this market trend, i
Quantum stocks are not same as AI: Take RGTI as example
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-17

What are the choices for Tax-Loss Harvesting?

Tax-Loss Harvesting is an investment strategy for U.S. stocks from December to January and is mainly applied in the field of financial investment under a tax environment.For U.S. citizens, capital gains tax is very onerous. Tax-Loss Harvesting refers to when investors intentionally sell securities (such as stocks, funds, bonds, etc.) that are in a state of decline and loss in order to reduce taxable income. In this way, investors can offset capital gains with investment losses.As Tax-Loss Harvesting nears its end, the worst-performing stocks will see a rebound in trading.Historically, these stocks have exceeded by about 250 basis points on average from the last two weeks of December to the end of January.Some individual stocks with "more holdings by investors" in various industries with po
What are the choices for Tax-Loss Harvesting?
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-12

A weird stock performance, what is implying?

$Macy's(M)$ has lost about 20-30% of its share price since it last rejected a tender offer.Given that the company was already in the "sunset" of its industry, the actual asset value is probably more of a concern than the market capitalization.After all, from the performance point of view, the slow decline, the view, the performance decline are within the investors' expectations.Q3 results: revenue down 3.1%, owned comparable sales down 3.0%, owned plus licensed plus marketplaces based comparable sales down 2.2%.Also lowered Q4 guidance and weaker than market expectations: full year sales of $22.3 billion to $22.5 billion market expected $22.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.25 to $2.50 versus the market's general expectation of $2.73.But what I found
A weird stock performance, what is implying?
avatarJacksNiffler
2024-12-11

What Quantum stocks could we follow as Google's Willow surprise the market?

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ hung the whole market overnight with the Willow chip, and in the short term anyway, the sentiment could be to pull back a bit from the AI chip. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ But to be honest, at present, the application scenarios of the two are not quite the same, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ GPUs and in AI training is also irreplaceable.But short-term hot speculation can be involved in the target quantum computing field of companies include: $QUANTUM CORP(QMCO)$ The company specializes in quantum computing technology, with a recent share price of $20.21 and a market cap of nearly $980 million.
What Quantum stocks could we follow as Google's Willow surprise the market?

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