SAP is one of the few software companies base in Europe, by virtue of its European local identity, enterprise software leadership, to become the core beneficiary of the impact of tariffs in Europe.In the short term, customer budget shifts and alternative demand will directly drive the growth of its cloud business; long-term need to pay attention to its ability to iterate technology and the sustainability of the European policy landing. $SAP SE(SAP)$ Q1 earnings performanceQ1 of FY25 was a strong performance.Overall revenue and profit beat market expectations.Total revenues of €9.01bn, +12.1% y-o-y (+11% at constant exchange rates), were slightly below analysts' expectations of €9.08bn, but the cloud business shone with €4.99bn, +27% y-o-y (+26% at
JacksNifflerCertificated Individuals
Tiger Certification: 8 years Analyst of high-quality U.S. &HKEX stocks.
12Follow
952Followers
0Topic
0Badge
SAP Q1: An Europe Independence IT Stock
An Arbitrage Opportunity For NFLX Earnings!
$Netflix(NFLX)$ has shown notable strength recently, delivering a YTD return of +9.5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (.SPX), which is down -8.25%.Last week's rally could be attributed to the market's belief that Netflix is relatively immune to tariff-related headwinds. This week's strength, however, appears more related to heightened earnings expectations. What's surprising is that NFLX rose 6.31% in the week leading up to its earnings, despite its Monday-implied volatility (IV) pricing in a ±10% move post-earnings.More interestingly—perhaps coincidentally or by design—the anticipated earnings gap (post-earnings gap-up/down) will not impact the weekly options expiring on April 17, as the market is closed on April 18 due to a holiday
An Arbitrage Opportunity For NFLX Earnings!
Is Richard's Speech Really Helpful For the Delivery Industry?
Recently $ Jingdong (JD) $ takeaway heat, Liu Qiangdong a takeaway business for the internal speech "no surprise" to "accidentally" out, alluding to the United States group profits are too high.But look carefully at the full version, this is just Liu Qiangdong down the PUA, outside the persona of the marketing strategy.Do takeaway according to Liu Qiangdong this line of thinking, is unable to pose any threat to the United States group.His three core ideas have logical problems.First, the control of profit margins, to maintain net profit within 5%, in order to ensure that the merchant profitsJingdong gives the public a preconceived illusion that takeout can be very simple to achieve "very high profits", but Jingdong "good intentions" convergence, delibe
Is Richard's Speech Really Helpful For the Delivery Industry?
HOW LONG WILL GOLD SURPASS $4000?
In its report, JPMorgan noted that the time it takes for gold to break through the $1,000 round number each time has shortened exponentially:$1,000 (2008): 38 years2000 (2020): reduced to 12 years$3000 (March 2025): just under 5 yearsFollowing this pattern, $4,000 could take only a third of the time of the previous period (5 years), i.e. about 1.5-2 years, corresponding to mid-late 2026 .$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)$ $ S&P 500 (.SPX)$Key DriversCentral bank gold purchases and the dollar credit crisisGlobal central banks continue to increase their gold holdings at a rate of 80-109 tons per month (2022-2025 data), well above historical averages, and with IMF data showing the share of US dollar reserves falling to 57.4
HOW LONG WILL GOLD SURPASS $4000?
It's still dead cat bounce
Don't All in.After the tariffs landed, the U.S. stock market is a little bit back to the soul of the meaning of fluctuations, a lot of people began to get excited, think the opportunity to come.But I'll be honest, don't get too excited, now this wave of rebound, more like a technical repair, not a trend reversal, at best, is a "dead cat jump".Simply put, the fundamentals did not keep up.The S&P 500 earnings per share estimate (EPS) for the coming year has been cut by Wall Street from +14.1% at the beginning of the year to +10.5%.That's not the worst of it, if U.S. GDP does fall between 0 and 1% as many now expect, then EPS will have to continue to be chopped to less than 5% to be reasonable, and right now the market isn't even reflecting that pessimism.Looking more closely at the secto
It's still dead cat bounce
Market's concern on NVDA may not be from MSFT
Yesterday the arithmetic chain plunged because of reports of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ data center lease cancellations and extensions, but instead $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was down more (-5.74%).NVDA's current but a bit may not be the same, because the arithmetic efficiency improvement and the concern of lower demand for GPUs, in fact, in January DeepSeek wave has been embodied, it makes no sense that the same subject matter once again hype wave.But NVDA's own Blackwell series may become a more worrying point for the market:GB200 supply chain challenges, which have been reported on quite a bit before.Included:Deployment complexity: the deployment of GB200 required 5-7 days of installation time, with frequent instability an
Market's concern on NVDA may not be from MSFT
Labubu Sold $400mn in 2024! POP MART is another NVDA?
After reading the earnings report of $POP MART(09992)$ today, I was simply shocked by this "money printing machine"!Labubu's The Monsters series, 2024 annual revenue of more than 3 billion, and the first half of only 600 million, second only to Molly, but the second half of the wildly overtaken.Although there is absolutely no business, industry, technology attributes to compare the two, but the two share the underlying code of "super growth stocks": monopoly market segments, globalization and expansion, product iteration crushes the questioning, but there have been questions on the road to growth.Specifically two aspects:High valuation - high faith, the scarcity of the leading "pricing power" premiumNVDA: with AI arithmetic monopoly, the dynamic
Labubu Sold $400mn in 2024! POP MART is another NVDA?
The Fed's March FOMC focus:First, the economic forecast and dot plot.The market wants to know if officials are revising growth, inflation and unemployment up or down, and what changes in the number of rate cuts this year, which can judge the committee's stance preference.Currently, the market is pricing in the expectation of two rate cuts by the end of 2025, and it would be best for the market if it remained unchanged.The problem, however, is that the market's interpretation could be "negative" - an increase in the number of cuts could be perceived as heightening concerns about the economy; a decrease in the number of cuts could be seen as "hawkish", with fears of making theThe future of the economy worse, how to look at it is not favorable.The second is Powell's press conference.Investors
AAPL's TWO big unwind
Last week's unusual volume selloff in $Apple(AAPL)$ is also now down to last July's levels.While there is some degree of skepticism about the reduction (liquidation) of positions by LO investors such as Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ this can only be verified in next quarter's 13F.Fundamentally several events affecting the medium term are enough to change investor expectations.Apple Intellegence delayMany of Siri's new features, such as analyzing screen content and controlling apps with precision, were shown off at WWDC, listing them as selling points for the iPhone 16 and putting them into a marketing push, but the features shown off were only "half-finished prototypes."However, the original
AAPL's TWO big unwind
Is Intel's New CEO making a difference?
$Intel(INTC)$ announced Lip-Bu Tan to take over as the new CEO, the entire Chinese circle can not restrain the excitement, after all, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ are now Chinese CEOs. Lip-Bu Tans background, qualifications, but also fully worthy of the current position, because he was previously a director of Intel, but because of the concept of different in August 24 resigned from the post.Why the market for think Lip-Bu Tan really can change Intel?The main reason for the board's resignation was dissatisfaction with the organization's structure and "conservative and outdated" corporate c
Was It Buffett Selling AAPL Again?
When the broader market first changed, AAPL was a bit firmer than the expenses, but after the broader $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ experienced a sharp drop of -4%, AAPL started to plummet instead.Every time $Apple(AAPL)$ goes down this way, I get the feeling that it's Long Only money like Warren Buffett's that's shipping out the moneyOne piece of evidence:All top tech weights were on Monday's plunge, but the NDX average volume was similar to or slighly more than the average volume over the past 5 days;AAPL was already on volume when it plummeted on Monday and continued to plummet on volume on Tuesday. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $ProShares UltraP
Was It Buffett Selling AAPL Again?
Cathie Wood On The Way...
Targets for this pick include $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Tempus AI(TEM)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Tempus AI(TEM)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ Also sold quite a bit $Block, Inc.(XYZ)$ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ Picked sides at PLTR and SOFI.
Cathie Wood On The Way...
The War Between Tesla & Shorts
Core EventsFor the third day in a row, Musk blasted the "consortium's manipulation of the anti-Tesla movement," naming ActBlue, the fundraising platform behind Soros, LinkedIn founder Hoffman and others, and accusing it of funding recent violent protests such as arson at Tesla stores around the world and vandalism of charging piles through five organizations. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Hoffman, of course, was not to be outdone: "Instead of framing conspiracy theories, let's reflect on ourselves."Ex-Soros was a significant investor in Tesla, but liquidated his position at the end of 2022 after a fall in the share price caused him to lose a lot of money;Soros is an important Jewish supporter, very ←, while Musk is currently very →Musk slammed Soros as "Ma
The War Between Tesla & Shorts
Remember This Man, While You Believe Canada Will Survive!
Trudeaux just stepped down, Canada has had a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney!His background is simply coolHe has three passports, Canadian, British and Irish;After graduating from Harvard, traveled to Oxford University, where he received his doctorate in 1995;Worked at Goldman Sachs, helping Goldman Sachs respond to the Russian national debt crisis in 1998;Was Governor of the Bank of Canada (carried the 08 financial crisis, the world's only G7 country with no bank failures);Been the governor of the Bank of England (just in time to meet the chaos of Brexit, did not force QE, but the effect is good, was honored by the Queen);Currently stated after a successful election campaign that he gave up his British and Irish passports to ensure absolute loyalty to Canada.Campaign propositions include:
Remember This Man, While You Believe Canada Will Survive!
Market in "Boring Mode", the best choice is...
The three charts below show fund flows in the U.S. equity markets:Mutual funds and ETFs raised in January 2025 are the weakest performers since August 2024Investor demand for equity funds has weakened significantly;Instead, actively managed ETFs have seen increased inflows and the trend is strengthening (monthly inflows into active ETFs are at an all-time high, occurring six times in 2024)Ultra-short-term bonds (cash substitutes) are performing very strongly.All of these indicators point to one thing: Investors feel that it is not cost-effective to hold long US stocks (beta trading) at the moment and are trying to find other sources of alpha.As a result, holding cash (money funds) have all become a source of market-leading alpha.The Hong Kong equity side has also just entered an awkward pe
Market in "Boring Mode", the best choice is...
Investors are selling off Semis before AVGO earnings?
Several of today's semiconductor earnings reports show that the market has become more demanding of semiconductor companies, and some potential problems can be seen in the $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ earnings report:Excellent performance in the current quarter, and guidance exceeded expectationsToo single source of incremental volume: while AI drives certainty, weakness across the board except for data centers, e.g., enterprise networking revenue of $171m (-35% yoy), carrier infrastructure of $106m (-38% yoy), consumer electronics of $89m (-38% yoy)Rising inventory days: current inventory levels can support 2-3Q demand, if AI order growth slows it will trigger inventory impairment risk;The market previously expected too high, has overdrawn the positiv
Investors are selling off Semis before AVGO earnings?
Discussion on TSM's CoWos reduction
The trigger for the chip stock selloff was the previous $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ CoWoS adjustment, which the market has been led to believe was an NVDA order cut.There are actually two premises to understand:Big tech companies (Mag 6) in the B card orders to Nvidia, because of the fear of capacity problems, often under the double (double orders), as a way to get more orders in the earliest stage, to be restored to the production capacity, may be canceled duplicate orders (expected this year Q3);NVIDIA tends to place double (or even multiple) orders when giving orders to TSMC, also in order to obtain more resources, which is also a game of upstream and downstream;First of all, TSMC will not expand production to the full extent of cu
Discussion on TSM's CoWos reduction
Zelensky is TSLA's next risk
As $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shareholders, last year's post-election day excitement, but also pay more attention to the "Musk risk", that is, with Trump deeply tied to the fundamentals of the backlash.A few months down the line, this change is already being reflected in results, most notably in the plummeting sales in Europe.According to incomplete regional delivery data, often "white left" prevalent in the region of sales decline is more obvious, which is obviously also the European "white left" in their unique way, targeting Tesla, showing "populism" against Tesla.The conclusion is that it is affecting Tesla's results.Since delivery data tends to lag, this part of the impact is likely to continue.But the decline in European deliveries is already "Pri
Zelensky is TSLA's next risk
Two Notable Charts (in downward trend)
Concentration risk in US tech stocks is starting to explode, with the gap to the ROW (ex-US), widening from February.At certain key points, perhaps some passive position adjustment will be ushered in. cta algorithmic trading has been a key factor in increasing market trends, so much so when it goes up, then it will run into corresponding problems when it goes down.If the quants go into fuller liquidation mode, CTA money is going to passively sell off $27 billion-$193 billion in equities as key points fall through. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Two Notable Charts (in downward trend)
PLTR in Q4 13F, How investors change this?
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 24Q4 Institutional Investors’ position change.
PLTR in Q4 13F, How investors change this?
Go to Tiger App to see more news
Invest in Global Markets with Tiger Brokers!Open App