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2022-07-06

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Last Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks

2022-07-02

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2022-07-01

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2022-06-30

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Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies

2022-07-14

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Excessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.

2022-07-11

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2022-06-29

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Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell

2022-07-18

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2022-07-09

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How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of "loss" behind Abe's assassination?

2022-07-02

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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076060107","repostId":"1166021735","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166021735","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1657681289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166021735?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-13 11:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Excessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166021735","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, the largest drop in nine years. The U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron’s pessimistic forecast. The electronics consumption boom since the pandemic is fading, and the chip supply shortage that has lasted for more than two years is turning into a surplus.</p><p>Data recently released by information technology research firm Gartner Inc. shows that global demand for personal computers declined sharply in the second quarter of this year.<b>Computer manufacturers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from the same period last year, the largest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner, said that the decline in demand since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Google's ChromeBook netbook.</p><p>Data from another organization, International Data Corp., shows that global equipment shipments fell by about 15.3% year-on-year in the second quarter.</p><p>IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani said that concerns about a recession continue to grow, weakening demand across various sectors. However, he also pointed out that despite the recent decline in demand, overall shipments are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>Both Gartner and IDC stated that the world's top three personal computer vendors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>Gartner data shows that demand for personal computers in the United States fell by 17.5%, mainly due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Is a winter approaching for the chip industry?</b></p><p>During the pandemic, consumption of electronic devices surged to accommodate remote work and education, as well as entertainment needs during home isolation. However, in recent months, there have been increasing signs that this trend is changing.</p><p>In May of this year, several personal computer manufacturers, including HP and Dell, warned that consumer demand for personal computers was weakening, especially for low-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become “very chaotic,” and the company would seek to adjust its spending and investments to accommodate this reality. In June of this year, Intel temporarily froze hiring in its personal computer chip division and took other austerity measures.</p><p>At the end of last month, memory chip manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The release of fourth-quarter earnings guidance fell far short of expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets: computers and smartphones. Although Micron executives described future demand as \"somewhat weakened,\" the specific figures suggest that demand in the chip industry may have already experienced a precipitous decline.</p><p>As the U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warned that...<b>Following Microelectronics' pessimistic forecast, more bad news will come.</b></p><p>As the market environment deteriorated, a wave of semiconductor order cuts spread. However, as Wall Street Insights previously mentioned,<b>Although the high growth in the semiconductor market over the past two years has subsided, structural opportunities still exist across the industry.</b></p><p>Amid shrinking demand for traditional electronic products, the field of semiconductors for new energy vehicles still has continued growth momentum. Comparing the situation with semiconductor chip manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at a historical low, which also verifies the structural performance of the automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, senior analyst at research firm Baird Semiconductors, also said that major chip suppliers for consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone makers, are essentially doomed, while companies that provide automotive and data center chips will continue to perform well.</p><p>However, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon holds a different view on the prospects for automotive chips.<b>He pointed out that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and are continuing to do so. The situation becomes even more real when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Excessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExcessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-13 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, the largest drop in nine years. The U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron’s pessimistic forecast. The electronics consumption boom since the pandemic is fading, and the chip supply shortage that has lasted for more than two years is turning into a surplus.</p><p>Data recently released by information technology research firm Gartner Inc. shows that global demand for personal computers declined sharply in the second quarter of this year.<b>Computer manufacturers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from the same period last year, the largest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner, said that the decline in demand since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Google's ChromeBook netbook.</p><p>Data from another organization, International Data Corp., shows that global equipment shipments fell by about 15.3% year-on-year in the second quarter.</p><p>IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani said that concerns about a recession continue to grow, weakening demand across various sectors. However, he also pointed out that despite the recent decline in demand, overall shipments are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>Both Gartner and IDC stated that the world's top three personal computer vendors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>Gartner data shows that demand for personal computers in the United States fell by 17.5%, mainly due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Is a winter approaching for the chip industry?</b></p><p>During the pandemic, consumption of electronic devices surged to accommodate remote work and education, as well as entertainment needs during home isolation. However, in recent months, there have been increasing signs that this trend is changing.</p><p>In May of this year, several personal computer manufacturers, including HP and Dell, warned that consumer demand for personal computers was weakening, especially for low-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become “very chaotic,” and the company would seek to adjust its spending and investments to accommodate this reality. In June of this year, Intel temporarily froze hiring in its personal computer chip division and took other austerity measures.</p><p>At the end of last month, memory chip manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The release of fourth-quarter earnings guidance fell far short of expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets: computers and smartphones. Although Micron executives described future demand as \"somewhat weakened,\" the specific figures suggest that demand in the chip industry may have already experienced a precipitous decline.</p><p>As the U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warned that...<b>Following Microelectronics' pessimistic forecast, more bad news will come.</b></p><p>As the market environment deteriorated, a wave of semiconductor order cuts spread. However, as Wall Street Insights previously mentioned,<b>Although the high growth in the semiconductor market over the past two years has subsided, structural opportunities still exist across the industry.</b></p><p>Amid shrinking demand for traditional electronic products, the field of semiconductors for new energy vehicles still has continued growth momentum. Comparing the situation with semiconductor chip manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at a historical low, which also verifies the structural performance of the automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, senior analyst at research firm Baird Semiconductors, also said that major chip suppliers for consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone makers, are essentially doomed, while companies that provide automotive and data center chips will continue to perform well.</p><p>However, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon holds a different view on the prospects for automotive chips.<b>He pointed out that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and are continuing to do so. The situation becomes even more real when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","PC":"Premium Catering (Holdings) Ltd."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166021735","content_text":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供应短缺正转向过剩。信息科技研究公司Gartner Inc.近日公布的数据显示，今年第二季度全球个人电脑需求大幅下降，电脑制造商在4月至6月间的出货量为7200万台，较去年同期下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。Gartner 研究主管Mikako Kitagawa表示，由于俄乌冲突导致的持续地缘政治不稳定、支出方面的通胀压力以及对谷歌网络笔记本ChromeBook的需求急剧下降，自第一季度以来出现的需求下降在第二季度加速。另一家机构International Data Corp.的数据显示，第二季度全球设备出货量同比下降了约15.3%。IDC研究经理Jitesh Ubrani表示，对衰退的担忧继续加剧，削弱了各个领域的需求。不过，他也指出，尽管最近需求有所下降，但总体出货量仍高于疫情前水平。Gartner和IDC均表示，全球前三大个人电脑供应商联想集团、惠普和戴尔第二季度的发货量均有所下降。Gartner的数据显示，美国个人电脑需求下降了17.5%，主要原因是ChromeBook出货量下降了50%。芯片业寒冬将至？疫情期间，为了适应远程工作和远程教育，以及宅家隔离的娱乐需求，对电子设备的消费大增，但近几个月来，越来越多迹象显示，这种趋势发生了变化。今年5月，惠普和戴尔等几家个人电脑制造商警告称，消费者对个人电脑的需求正在减弱，尤其是对低价产品的需求。英特尔首席财务官David Zinsner今年6月表示，今年下半年的前景变得“非常混乱”，该公司将寻求调整支出和投资以适应这一现实。今年6月，英特尔暂时冻结了其个人电脑芯片部门的招聘，并采取了其他紧缩措施。上个月底，内存芯片制造商美光科技发布第四季度业绩指引远低于预期，反映出电脑和智能手机两个关键市场的放缓。虽然美光高管在描述未来需求时所用的表述是“有所减弱”，但从具体数字来看，芯片行业的需求或已出现了断崖式下降。随着美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，TechInsights芯片分析师Dan Hutcheson警告称，继美光发布悲观预测后，还会有更多坏消息传来。市场环境恶化，半导体砍单潮也随之蔓延。不过，华尔街见闻此前提及，虽然半导体市场过去两年的高增不再，但整个行业内仍存在结构化的机会。在传统电子产品需求萎缩之际，新能源车用半导体领域仍有继续增长的动力。对比半导体芯片厂的情况，意法半导体、恩智浦、德州仪器等车用半导体公司的存货周转天数仍处于历史低位，这也同样验证了车用半导体领域的结构化表现。研究公司Baird半导体高级分析师Tristan Gerra也表示，消费电子产品制造商，尤其是低端智能手机制造商的芯片大供应商基本上注定“难逃厄运”，而提供汽车和数据中心芯片的公司将继续表现优秀。但Bernstein分析师Stacy Rasgon对汽车芯片的前景持有不同观点。他指出，汽车制造商订购的芯片远远超过了他们的需求，而且还在继续这样做。当汽车制造商停止购买时，情况就会变得更加真实。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"PC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071182273,"gmtCreate":1657501342392,"gmtModify":1676536014330,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071182273","repostId":"2250061276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073865314,"gmtCreate":1657327763138,"gmtModify":1676535991105,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073865314","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079377928,"gmtCreate":1657154819264,"gmtModify":1676535959965,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079377928","repostId":"2249822546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249822546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657143383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249822546?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 05:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts a full-blown recession in the US next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249822546","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会货币政策会议的纪要文件。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The US is predicted to fall into a technical recession in Q2, and a full-blown recession may occur next year.</b><b>2. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: \"More restrictive\" policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool down.</b><b>3. The United States and its allies are discussing limiting the price of Russian crude oil to $40-60.</b><b>4. Market forecaster Gartman: Recommends selling stocks on rallies in the second half of the year.</b><b>5. The European Parliament voted to give natural gas and nuclear energy a \"green label\".</b><b>6. Bank of England officials hinted that rate hike may be paced at a faster pace to prevent inflation from becoming more persistent.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>The US is predicted to fall into a technical recession in Q2, and a full-blown recession may occur next year.</b></p><p>Deutsche Bank stated that the likelihood of weaknesses in some sectors of the U.S. economy spreading to the still strong labor market and services sector is increasing, which would lead to job losses and make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.</p><p>Deutsche Bank economists now predict that U.S. GDP will shrink at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, which would mean the second consecutive quarter of economic contraction and plunge the U.S. economy into a technical recession. They still expect the economy to grow by 0.6% throughout the year, and the economy to fall into a full-blown recession by mid-2023.</p><p>The bank stated that the metric used to calculate quarterly GDP—final sales to domestic buyers—will increase by slightly more than 1% in the second and third quarters of this year.</p><p>“While this does not mean a recession is imminent, historically there have been few instances where final sales growth has declined so significantly without the economy falling into recession,” the bank’s economists wrote in a research report.</p><p>Wall Street analysts have lowered their 2022 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks and warned of the risk of an economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ee21463ab7bb30d85cd34a4908cb05\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Federal Reserve meeting minutes: \"More restrictive\" policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials emphasized at the meeting the need to combat inflation, even if it means slowing the economy, which is already on the brink of recession.</p><p>The meeting minutes show that most Federal Reserve officials believe the risks to economic growth are downward. If inflation fails to cool, the Federal Reserve may adopt a \"more restrictive\" policy.</p><p>The minutes stated, \"Participants agreed that the economic outlook needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance. They recognized that a tighter policy stance might be appropriate if inflationary pressures continued to rise.\"</p><p>The minutes show that officials are “highly concerned” about inflation risks, and it may take some time to bring the inflation rate down to 2%. Many officials are concerned that long-term price expectations may rise. Officials also acknowledged that tightening policies could come at a cost.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b2c756fe3e8eb4cfa16e5ce33a69e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The United States and its allies are discussing limiting the selling price of Russian crude oil to $40-60.</b></p><p>According to sources familiar with the matter, the United States and its allies have discussed efforts to limit the selling price of Russian crude oil to around $40 to $60 per barrel.</p><p>Discussions began ahead of the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russian oil revenues while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At a summit in Germany on June 28, world leaders agreed to explore options for limiting oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products unless the price is below the level they set.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said that this range is what allies consider Russia's marginal production costs to be the oil price before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Two sources familiar with the matter said the Biden administration believes the $40 cap is too low. The allies' aim is to reduce Moscow's revenue available for military operations, but the risk is that if the measures are not implemented effectively, oil prices will soar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaad15723e2663bfd5740ece004a70f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Market forecaster Gartman recommends selling stocks at higher prices in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Market forecaster Dennis Gartman warned that buying stocks in the current bear market is \"foolish.\"</p><p>“The stock market’s rise is for selling at high prices, not for buying,” the chairman of the University of Akron Endowment Fund said Tuesday. \"That could change in three, four, five, or six months. The average duration of a bear market is often close to a year. How much further the stock market can fall is anyone's guess.\"</p><p>Gartman, who published The influential \"The Gartman Letter,\" has been bearish on The stock market for several months. In January, he said the stock market could face a decline of up to 15% in 2022, and on December 31, he reduced the weighting of stocks in college funds by 12%-15%. The S&P 500 has fallen 20% this year, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market.</p><p>Gartman stated that after three rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve's plan to raise overnight lending rates \"further by 75-125 basis points\" would plunge the U.S. economy into recession, even as the severe inflation that drove its tightening policies begins to slow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2e00649913baabbb7bc871a0b7110b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The European Parliament voted to put a \"green label\" on natural gas and nuclear energy</b></p><p>The European Parliament issued a statement on the 6th saying that, after voting, it supported a bill proposed by the European Commission to include natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions in the category of sustainable economic activities covered by an EU classification regulation on addressing climate change.</p><p>If the European Council does not raise any objections by July 11, the bill will officially take effect on January 1, 2023.</p><p>This EU classification regulation sets standards for sustainable economic activities, providing reference for member states in areas such as investment, taxation, and management. In February of this year, the European Commission passed a supplementary authorization act to the regulation, classifying natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions as sustainable economic activities and stipulating technical screening and emission standards for the corresponding projects. The bill stipulates that nuclear energy projects must meet nuclear and environmental safety requirements, while natural gas must help accelerate the transition from coal to renewable energy without affecting investment in renewable energy.</p><p>The bill is widely controversial. Environmental groups and some EU member states have criticized its \"greenwashing\" of fossil fuel and nuclear energy investments, damaging the EU's credibility in addressing climate change. Supporters argue that refusing to \"green label\" natural gas and nuclear energy will lead to further increases in energy prices and make it harder for people to wean themselves off their dependence on fossil fuels such as coal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e514a880eb42ac33be981ada47675e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bank of England officials have hinted that rate hike may be paced at a faster pace to avoid further persistent inflation.</b></p><p>Two senior Bank of England officials said they are prepared to rate hike at a faster pace if necessary to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn. Further indications suggest that the Bank of England may raise its rate hike by 50 basis points as early as next month.</p><p>Chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank's latest guidance indicates a willingness to accelerate the rate hike cycle if necessary. Hours earlier, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said the central bank \"will take all necessary measures\" to prevent inflation from persisting and pledged that officials \"will take action, and we will take strong action.\"</p><p>Speaking in London, Pill said the Bank of England's June pledge to take \"strong action\" on continued inflation \"reflects my willingness to tighten faster than the current tightening cycle has been implemented so far, while also emphasizing that any change in the pace of action will depend on new data and analysis.\"</p><p>“There are still many issues to resolve before we vote on policy decisions in August. How I vote then will be determined by the data we see and my interpretation,” he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts a full-blown recession in the US next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | Deutsche Bank predicts a full-blown recession in the US next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The US is predicted to fall into a technical recession in Q2, and a full-blown recession may occur next year.</b><b>2. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: \"More restrictive\" policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool down.</b><b>3. The United States and its allies are discussing limiting the price of Russian crude oil to $40-60.</b><b>4. Market forecaster Gartman: Recommends selling stocks on rallies in the second half of the year.</b><b>5. The European Parliament voted to give natural gas and nuclear energy a \"green label\".</b><b>6. Bank of England officials hinted that rate hike may be paced at a faster pace to prevent inflation from becoming more persistent.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>The US is predicted to fall into a technical recession in Q2, and a full-blown recession may occur next year.</b></p><p>Deutsche Bank stated that the likelihood of weaknesses in some sectors of the U.S. economy spreading to the still strong labor market and services sector is increasing, which would lead to job losses and make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.</p><p>Deutsche Bank economists now predict that U.S. GDP will shrink at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, which would mean the second consecutive quarter of economic contraction and plunge the U.S. economy into a technical recession. They still expect the economy to grow by 0.6% throughout the year, and the economy to fall into a full-blown recession by mid-2023.</p><p>The bank stated that the metric used to calculate quarterly GDP—final sales to domestic buyers—will increase by slightly more than 1% in the second and third quarters of this year.</p><p>“While this does not mean a recession is imminent, historically there have been few instances where final sales growth has declined so significantly without the economy falling into recession,” the bank’s economists wrote in a research report.</p><p>Wall Street analysts have lowered their 2022 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks and warned of the risk of an economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ee21463ab7bb30d85cd34a4908cb05\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Federal Reserve meeting minutes: \"More restrictive\" policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool.</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Federal Reserve officials emphasized at the meeting the need to combat inflation, even if it means slowing the economy, which is already on the brink of recession.</p><p>The meeting minutes show that most Federal Reserve officials believe the risks to economic growth are downward. If inflation fails to cool, the Federal Reserve may adopt a \"more restrictive\" policy.</p><p>The minutes stated, \"Participants agreed that the economic outlook needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance. They recognized that a tighter policy stance might be appropriate if inflationary pressures continued to rise.\"</p><p>The minutes show that officials are “highly concerned” about inflation risks, and it may take some time to bring the inflation rate down to 2%. Many officials are concerned that long-term price expectations may rise. Officials also acknowledged that tightening policies could come at a cost.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b2c756fe3e8eb4cfa16e5ce33a69e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The United States and its allies are discussing limiting the selling price of Russian crude oil to $40-60.</b></p><p>According to sources familiar with the matter, the United States and its allies have discussed efforts to limit the selling price of Russian crude oil to around $40 to $60 per barrel.</p><p>Discussions began ahead of the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russian oil revenues while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At a summit in Germany on June 28, world leaders agreed to explore options for limiting oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products unless the price is below the level they set.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said that this range is what allies consider Russia's marginal production costs to be the oil price before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Two sources familiar with the matter said the Biden administration believes the $40 cap is too low. The allies' aim is to reduce Moscow's revenue available for military operations, but the risk is that if the measures are not implemented effectively, oil prices will soar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaad15723e2663bfd5740ece004a70f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Market forecaster Gartman recommends selling stocks at higher prices in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>Market forecaster Dennis Gartman warned that buying stocks in the current bear market is \"foolish.\"</p><p>“The stock market’s rise is for selling at high prices, not for buying,” the chairman of the University of Akron Endowment Fund said Tuesday. \"That could change in three, four, five, or six months. The average duration of a bear market is often close to a year. How much further the stock market can fall is anyone's guess.\"</p><p>Gartman, who published The influential \"The Gartman Letter,\" has been bearish on The stock market for several months. In January, he said the stock market could face a decline of up to 15% in 2022, and on December 31, he reduced the weighting of stocks in college funds by 12%-15%. The S&P 500 has fallen 20% this year, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market.</p><p>Gartman stated that after three rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve's plan to raise overnight lending rates \"further by 75-125 basis points\" would plunge the U.S. economy into recession, even as the severe inflation that drove its tightening policies begins to slow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2e00649913baabbb7bc871a0b7110b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The European Parliament voted to put a \"green label\" on natural gas and nuclear energy</b></p><p>The European Parliament issued a statement on the 6th saying that, after voting, it supported a bill proposed by the European Commission to include natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions in the category of sustainable economic activities covered by an EU classification regulation on addressing climate change.</p><p>If the European Council does not raise any objections by July 11, the bill will officially take effect on January 1, 2023.</p><p>This EU classification regulation sets standards for sustainable economic activities, providing reference for member states in areas such as investment, taxation, and management. In February of this year, the European Commission passed a supplementary authorization act to the regulation, classifying natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet specific conditions as sustainable economic activities and stipulating technical screening and emission standards for the corresponding projects. The bill stipulates that nuclear energy projects must meet nuclear and environmental safety requirements, while natural gas must help accelerate the transition from coal to renewable energy without affecting investment in renewable energy.</p><p>The bill is widely controversial. Environmental groups and some EU member states have criticized its \"greenwashing\" of fossil fuel and nuclear energy investments, damaging the EU's credibility in addressing climate change. Supporters argue that refusing to \"green label\" natural gas and nuclear energy will lead to further increases in energy prices and make it harder for people to wean themselves off their dependence on fossil fuels such as coal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e514a880eb42ac33be981ada47675e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bank of England officials have hinted that rate hike may be paced at a faster pace to avoid further persistent inflation.</b></p><p>Two senior Bank of England officials said they are prepared to rate hike at a faster pace if necessary to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn. Further indications suggest that the Bank of England may raise its rate hike by 50 basis points as early as next month.</p><p>Chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank's latest guidance indicates a willingness to accelerate the rate hike cycle if necessary. Hours earlier, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said the central bank \"will take all necessary measures\" to prevent inflation from persisting and pledged that officials \"will take action, and we will take strong action.\"</p><p>Speaking in London, Pill said the Bank of England's June pledge to take \"strong action\" on continued inflation \"reflects my willingness to tighten faster than the current tightening cycle has been implemented so far, while also emphasizing that any change in the pace of action will depend on new data and analysis.\"</p><p>“There are still many issues to resolve before we vote on policy decisions in August. How I vote then will be determined by the data we see and my interpretation,” he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-07/doc-imizmscv0406117.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-07/doc-imizmscv0406117.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249822546","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退2、美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的 3、美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元 4、市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票　5、欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”6、英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退德意志银行表示，美国经济部分领域的弱点蔓延到仍然强劲的劳动力市场和服务业的可能性正在上升，这将造成人员失业，令美联储对抗通胀更加艰难。德意志银行的经济学家现在预计，第二季度美国GDP折合年率萎缩0.6%，这将意味着连续第二个季度经济萎缩，从而使美国经济陷入技术性衰退。他们仍然预计全年经济将实现增长，增幅0.6%，到2023年中期经济将陷入全面衰退。该行表示，用于计算季度GDP的指标--面向国内购买者的最终销售--在今年二、三季度增幅将略微超过1%。“尽管这并不意味着经济衰退近在眼前，但历史上，最终销售增速下降如此之大、而经济又不陷入衰退的情况并不多，”该行经济学家在一份研究报告中写道。华尔街分析师近几周来纷纷下调2022年GDP增幅预测，并对经济下滑风险发出警告。美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议的纪要文件。美联储官员们在会议上强调了对抗通胀的必要性，即便这意味着会让已经处于衰退边缘的经济放缓。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。纪要称，“与会者们一致认为，经济前景需要转向限制性政策立场。他们认识到，如果通胀压力持续升高，采取更加严格的政策立场可能是合适的。”纪要显示，官员们“高度关注”通胀风险，可能需要一段时间才能将通胀率降至2%。许多官员担忧长期价格预期可能会上升。官员们还承认，政策收紧可能会付出代价。美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元据知情人士透露，美国及其盟国已经讨论过努力将俄罗斯原油的售价限制在每桶40美元至60美元左右。相关讨论在七国集团峰会前就开始，盟国在探索限制俄罗斯石油收入、同时最大限度减少对自身经济冲击的数种途径。在6月28日于德国举行的峰会上，各国领导人同意研究限制油价的各选项，如禁止运输俄罗斯原油和石油产品所需的保险及运输服务，除非售价低于其规定的水平。知情人士称，该区间是盟国所认为的俄罗斯边际生产成本到俄乌冲突发生之前的油价。两位知情人士表示，拜登政府认为40美元的上限过低。盟国的目的是削减莫斯科可用于军事行动的收入，但风险在于，若措施执行不力油价会飙升。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。“股市上涨是用来逢高抛售的，不是用来买进的，”这位阿克伦大学捐赠基金的主席周二表示。“再过三、四、五或六个月，这样的情况可能会改变。熊市的平均期限往往接近一年。股市还能下跌多少就只能猜了。”Gartman曾发布颇具影响力的“The Gartman Letter”，他看空股市已有数月。1月份，他说股市在2022年可能面临多达15%的跌幅，他在12月31日将大学基金中股票的比重下调了12%-15%。标普500指数今年以来下跌了20%，满足传统上的熊市定义。Gartman表示，美联储今年加息三次以后，计划将隔夜贷款利率“进一步上调75-125个基点”，会令美国经济陷入衰退，即便推动其收紧政策的严重通胀开始放缓。欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”欧洲议会6日发表声明说，经过投票，欧洲议会支持欧盟委员会提出的相关法案，把满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目列入欧盟一项应对气候变化的分类条例所涵盖的可持续经济活动类别。如果欧盟理事会在7月11日前不提出异议，该法案将于2023年1月1日正式生效。欧盟这项分类条例为可持续经济活动设立标准，供各成员国在投资、税收、管理等方面参考。欧盟委员会今年2月通过了该条例的补充授权法案，将满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目归为可持续经济活动，并规定了相应项目的技术筛选和排放标准。法案规定，核能项目需要满足核安全和环境安全要求，天然气则要有助于加速从煤炭向可再生能源的过渡，同时不会影响对可再生能源的投资。该法案广受争议。环保组织和一些欧盟成员国批评其“漂绿”化石能源和核能投资，损害欧盟在应对气候变化方面的信誉。支持者则认为，拒绝给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”，将导致能源价格进一步上涨，并使人们更难摆脱对煤炭等化石能源的依赖。英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固两位英国央行高级别官员表示，为了防止通胀更加顽固，他们准备在必要时以更快的速度加息；进一步显示，英国央行最快下个月就可能加息50个基点。首席经济学家Huw Pill表示，央行的最新指引显示，如有必要，愿意加快加息周期。数小时前，英国央行副行长Jon Cunliffe表示，央行“将采取一切必要措施”，以防止通胀持续，并承诺官员们“将采取行动，我们将会采取有力行动”。Pill在伦敦发表讲话时表示，英国央行6月承诺对通胀的持续采取“有力行动”，“既反映了我愿意比当前紧缩周期迄今为止的执行速度更快紧缩，同时也强调了行动步伐发生任何变化，都要取决于新的数据和分析。”“我们在8月份就政策决定表决前，还有很多问题要解决。届时我如何投票将由我们看到的数据和我的解读来定，”他说道。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"SPXU":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278831,"gmtCreate":1657070331623,"gmtModify":1676535943897,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278831","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126427898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657065123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126427898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126427898","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks rallied in open low, staging a dramatic comeback. The Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose. ② Commodities plummeted, with US crude oil falling below $100 and gold hitting its lowest closing price this year; ③ Amid recession concerns, the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point; ④ A major earthquake struck British politics, with two high-ranking officials announcing their resignations on the same day. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed overnight, with major tech stocks rising across the board.</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in open low on Tuesday and closed mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields driving tech stocks higher. At the close, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42%.</p><p>Major tech stocks all rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 3.60%, and Meta rose 5.10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 1.85%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.23%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Up 2.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>It surged over 19%, and its Hong Kong stock price surged over 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks surged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 3.84%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up 6.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Faraday Future rose 6.10%, while Faraday Future rose 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed lower across the board, with major indices falling by more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX down 2.91% and France's CAC40 down 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, falling below the $100 mark.</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 a barrel, marking the biggest drop since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>Citigroup warned that if a severe demand recession occurs, prices could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an eight-month low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price so far this year. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, their lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. LME copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark and hitting a 17-month low, as recession concerns dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit down.</p><p>6. US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession concerns.</p><p>On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose as much as 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later reversed its rise, falling to a low of 2.8% due to renewed economic concerns. During trading, the 2-year yield rose slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inverted curve indicates that the market believes that an economic slowdown will eventually lead to a decline in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesperson: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>From June 28 to 29, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on resuming compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear issue, but the expected progress was not achieved. On July 5 local time, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Price stated at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omeprone BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5 local time, the BA.5 subtype of the mutated Omeprone strain of the novel coronavirus has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States. Data shows that BA.5 subtype infections currently account for 53.6% of new COVID-19 infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infections account for 16.5%, and the two together account for about 70% of the total number of COVID-19 infections.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, a 56% increase in 8 days.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared to the 3,413 cases reported by the WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year.</p><p>According to the latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5, global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year due to soaring prices and the possibility of further reductions in Russian natural gas supply, and will increase slowly in the following years. The report states that global natural gas consumption is expected to decrease by 0.5% this year compared to 2021 levels; Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by only 140 billion cubic meters by 2025 compared to 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to impose a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, totaling nearly $20 billion.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the Russian parliament approved a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. This move will inject the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into the Russian treasury as natural gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (approximately US$19.72 billion) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs the approval of the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian Oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike that began in the early hours of the day at Equinor ended. According to reports, the Norwegian government intervened in the strike through the Mandatory Wage Board, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labor disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, directly targeting Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations, both pointing the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid stated that he had lost faith in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest following a series of scandals, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's government in good conscience. Mr Javid said many MPs and the public had lost faith in Mr Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary.</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahavi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahavi was previously the British Education Secretary. In addition, Steve Barkley has been appointed as the new Health Secretary, replacing Javid. Barkley had previously been Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Türkiye stated that it will push for negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation route to achieve results as soon as possible.</p><p>On July 5 local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Türkiye will strive to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on secure food transportation routes in the Black Sea. Erdogan said, \"We will strive to intensify negotiations with Russia and Ukraine and achieve results within a week or ten days.\" Erdogan stated that the Ukraine crisis has disrupted grain transportation routes in the Black Sea region and triggered food trade issues. Although Türkiye is not suffering from global food shortages, some countries around the world, particularly in Africa, are facing food crises. Currently, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to resolve this issue.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Ukraine submits its application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal submitted his application to join the OECD to OECD Secretary-General Matthias Coleman that day. Shmejar stated that Ukraine is seeking to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial for Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky.</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss the latest developments following the G7 and NATO summits. Johnson stated that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery pieces and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks. Zelensky briefed Johnson on the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front. When both sides spoke about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held a day earlier in Lugano, Switzerland, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla unveils solar-powered range-extended trailer prototype that can provide range for electric pickup trucks.</a></p><p>According to reports from multiple tech media outlets, including Electrek, Tesla showcased a prototype of a solar-powered range-extended trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla claims it can provide additional range for its CyberTruck electric pickup truck. In addition, the trailer is equipped with SpaceX's satellite internet receiver, which allows the owner to connect to the internet in areas without telecommunications signal.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">The European Parliament passed two landmark bills targeting tech giants such as Google and Apple.</a></p><p>On July 5 local time, the European Parliament passed the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act by an overwhelming majority. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to curb the power of tech giants such as Google and Apple. It is understood that these two laws will take effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia.</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where the company assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said on Tuesday. In March of this year, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canada will destroy 13.6 million doses of expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5 that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines stored in Canada.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things sets new ratings record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming giant Netflix said that the latest season of Stranger Things has been watched more than 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English-language TV series in Netflix's history. Another Netflix drama with over 1 billion hours of viewing time is the globally popular Korean drama \"Squid Game\" last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund reportedly achieved a return of 32% in the first half of the year.</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return of 32% in the first half of this year, thanks to increased market volatility. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, raising its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan Chase is bearish on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40% again.</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Both are among the most watched and controversial companies on Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations, despite the company's record-breaking production in June, bearish sentiment remains prevalent in the market. The latest investment bank to lower its target price for Tesla is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 The bank stated that Tesla's stock price could fall by more than 40% from current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-06 07:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks rallied in open low, staging a dramatic comeback. The Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose. ② Commodities plummeted, with US crude oil falling below $100 and gold hitting its lowest closing price this year; ③ Amid recession concerns, the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point; ④ A major earthquake struck British politics, with two high-ranking officials announcing their resignations on the same day. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed overnight, with major tech stocks rising across the board.</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in open low on Tuesday and closed mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields driving tech stocks higher. At the close, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42%.</p><p>Major tech stocks all rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 3.60%, and Meta rose 5.10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 1.85%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.23%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Up 2.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>It surged over 19%, and its Hong Kong stock price surged over 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks surged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 3.84%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up 6.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Faraday Future rose 6.10%, while Faraday Future rose 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed lower across the board, with major indices falling by more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX down 2.91% and France's CAC40 down 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, falling below the $100 mark.</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 a barrel, marking the biggest drop since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>Citigroup warned that if a severe demand recession occurs, prices could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an eight-month low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price so far this year. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, their lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. LME copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark and hitting a 17-month low, as recession concerns dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit down.</p><p>6. US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession concerns.</p><p>On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose as much as 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later reversed its rise, falling to a low of 2.8% due to renewed economic concerns. During trading, the 2-year yield rose slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inverted curve indicates that the market believes that an economic slowdown will eventually lead to a decline in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesperson: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>From June 28 to 29, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on resuming compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear issue, but the expected progress was not achieved. On July 5 local time, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Price stated at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omeprone BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5 local time, the BA.5 subtype of the mutated Omeprone strain of the novel coronavirus has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States. Data shows that BA.5 subtype infections currently account for 53.6% of new COVID-19 infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infections account for 16.5%, and the two together account for about 70% of the total number of COVID-19 infections.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, a 56% increase in 8 days.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared to the 3,413 cases reported by the WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year.</p><p>According to the latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5, global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year due to soaring prices and the possibility of further reductions in Russian natural gas supply, and will increase slowly in the following years. The report states that global natural gas consumption is expected to decrease by 0.5% this year compared to 2021 levels; Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by only 140 billion cubic meters by 2025 compared to 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to impose a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, totaling nearly $20 billion.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the Russian parliament approved a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. This move will inject the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into the Russian treasury as natural gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (approximately US$19.72 billion) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs the approval of the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian Oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike that began in the early hours of the day at Equinor ended. According to reports, the Norwegian government intervened in the strike through the Mandatory Wage Board, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labor disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, directly targeting Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations, both pointing the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid stated that he had lost faith in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest following a series of scandals, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's government in good conscience. Mr Javid said many MPs and the public had lost faith in Mr Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary.</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahavi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahavi was previously the British Education Secretary. In addition, Steve Barkley has been appointed as the new Health Secretary, replacing Javid. Barkley had previously been Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Türkiye stated that it will push for negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation route to achieve results as soon as possible.</p><p>On July 5 local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Türkiye will strive to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on secure food transportation routes in the Black Sea. Erdogan said, \"We will strive to intensify negotiations with Russia and Ukraine and achieve results within a week or ten days.\" Erdogan stated that the Ukraine crisis has disrupted grain transportation routes in the Black Sea region and triggered food trade issues. Although Türkiye is not suffering from global food shortages, some countries around the world, particularly in Africa, are facing food crises. Currently, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to resolve this issue.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Ukraine submits its application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal submitted his application to join the OECD to OECD Secretary-General Matthias Coleman that day. Shmejar stated that Ukraine is seeking to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial for Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky.</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss the latest developments following the G7 and NATO summits. Johnson stated that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery pieces and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks. Zelensky briefed Johnson on the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front. When both sides spoke about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held a day earlier in Lugano, Switzerland, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla unveils solar-powered range-extended trailer prototype that can provide range for electric pickup trucks.</a></p><p>According to reports from multiple tech media outlets, including Electrek, Tesla showcased a prototype of a solar-powered range-extended trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla claims it can provide additional range for its CyberTruck electric pickup truck. In addition, the trailer is equipped with SpaceX's satellite internet receiver, which allows the owner to connect to the internet in areas without telecommunications signal.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">The European Parliament passed two landmark bills targeting tech giants such as Google and Apple.</a></p><p>On July 5 local time, the European Parliament passed the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act by an overwhelming majority. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to curb the power of tech giants such as Google and Apple. It is understood that these two laws will take effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia.</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where the company assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said on Tuesday. In March of this year, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canada will destroy 13.6 million doses of expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5 that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines stored in Canada.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things sets new ratings record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming giant Netflix said that the latest season of Stranger Things has been watched more than 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English-language TV series in Netflix's history. Another Netflix drama with over 1 billion hours of viewing time is the globally popular Korean drama \"Squid Game\" last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund reportedly achieved a return of 32% in the first half of the year.</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return of 32% in the first half of this year, thanks to increased market volatility. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, raising its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan Chase is bearish on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40% again.</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Both are among the most watched and controversial companies on Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations, despite the company's record-breaking production in June, bearish sentiment remains prevalent in the market. The latest investment bank to lower its target price for Tesla is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 The bank stated that Tesla's stock price could fall by more than 40% from current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126427898","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位高官同日宣布辞职。海外市场1、隔夜美股收盘涨跌不一 大型科技股全线上涨美股周二低开高走，收盘涨跌不一，国债收益率走低推动科技股上涨。截至收盘，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.16%，道指跌0.42%。大型科技股悉数上涨，苹果涨1.89%，亚马逊涨3.60%，Meta涨5.10%，谷歌涨4.16%，微软涨1.26%，奈飞涨3.30%，特斯拉涨2.55%。2、热门中概股多数走高金融壹账通涨近19%热门中概股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.56%，京东跌1.85%，拼多多涨2.78%，哔哩哔哩涨3.63%，百度涨1.82%，新东方涨11.28%，网易跌1.23%，爱奇艺涨2.52%，好未来涨4.78%；金融壹账通大涨超19%，其港股上市次日大涨超40%。新能源汽车股大涨，蔚来汽车涨3.84%，小鹏汽车涨6.11%，理想汽车涨6.10%，法拉第未来48.73%。3、欧股收盘全线下跌 主要股指均跌逾2%欧股周二收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌2.91%，法国CAC40指数跌2.68%，英国富时100指数跌2.86%。4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2%跌破100美元关口原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。花旗集团警告称，如果需求严重衰退到来，到今年年底可能会跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底跌至45美元。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌2.1% 创8个月新低纽约黄金期货价格周二大幅收跌，并创今年迄今的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌37.60美元，跌幅为2.10%，报收于每桶1763.90美元，创12月初以来的最低收盘价。周二黄金与白银、铜和其他大宗商品一起大幅下跌。伦铜收跌逾4%，跌破8000美元关口，创最近17个月低点，经济衰退忧虑主导市场。ICE棉花期货价格一度触及跌停。6、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂周二基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。国际宏观1、美国务院发言人：没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划6月28日至29日，在欧盟的协调下，伊朗和美国在卡塔尔首都多哈就伊朗核问题全面协议恢复履约举行间接谈判，但没有取得预期的进展。当地时间7月5日，美国国务院发言人普赖斯在简报会上称，目前没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划。2、美疾控中心：奥密克戎BA.5亚型已成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株根据美国疾控中心当地时间7月5日公布的数据，变异新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株BA.5亚型已经成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株。数据显示，BA.5亚型感染病例目前占全美新增新冠病毒感染病例的53.6%，而BA.4亚型感染病例占16.5%，两者合计约占新冠病毒感染病例总数的70%。3、世卫组织：全球已报告超5300例猴痘病例 8天时间增长了56%当地时间7月5日，世界卫生组织（WHO）通报称，截至6月30日，全球多国已报告5322例经实验室确诊的猴痘病例，其中1人死亡。在日内瓦举行的简报会上，世卫组织发言人法蒂拉·沙伊布告诉记者，该确诊病例数比世卫组织6月22日通报的3413例增长了56%。4、国际能源署预期今年天然气消费小幅减少国际能源署7月5日发布的天然气市场最新季度报告显示，由于价格飙升以及俄罗斯天然气可能进一步减少供应，今年全球天然气消费将小幅减少，之后数年会缓慢增加。报告说，今年全球天然气使用量预期较2021年水平缩减0.5%；预计到2025年，全球天然气需求量仅比2021年增长1400亿立方米。5、俄罗斯即将对天然气巨头开征暴利税 总价值近200亿美元当地时间7月5日，俄罗斯议会批准对能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司征收临时暴利税。随着天然气价格飙升，此举将向俄罗斯国库注入相当于近200亿美元的资金。根据俄罗斯国家杜马周二通过的一项法案，俄气将在9月至11月期间额外支付1.25万亿卢布（约合197.2亿美元）的矿产开采税，即每月4160亿卢布。该法案仍然需要俄罗斯联邦委员会和总统的批准。6、挪威石油行业罢工结束当地时间7月5日晚，在挪威政府的介入下，挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）于当天凌晨开始的罢工结束。据报道，挪威政府通过强制工资委员会对罢工进行了干预，挪威强制性工资委员会是政府可以实施的一项强制性措施，以制止持续的劳资纠纷。7、英国政坛大地震？两位高官同日宣布辞职 矛头直指首相约翰逊随着两位高级官员宣布辞职，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊再次遭遇严重的政治打击。当地时间周二（7月5日），英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克相继宣布辞职，并且都将矛头指向了首相约翰逊。贾维德在辞职信中表示，在一系列丑闻之后，他对约翰逊为国家利益执政的能力失去了信心，并表示自己已无法再凭良心在约翰逊政府中任职。贾维德称，许多议员和公众都对约翰逊失去了信心。8、英国首相任命新的财政大臣和卫生大臣当地时间7月5日晚间，英国首相约翰逊宣布任命纳迪姆·扎哈维接替苏纳克为新任财政大臣。扎哈维此前为英国教育大臣。此外，史蒂夫·巴克利被任命为新任卫生大臣，接替贾维德。巴克利此前为约翰逊的幕僚长。9、土耳其称将推动黑海粮食运输通道谈判尽快取得成果当地时间7月5日，土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，土耳其将努力推动与俄罗斯和乌克兰就黑海粮食安全运输通道问题达成协议。埃尔多安说：“我们将努力加强与俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判，争取在一周或十天内取得成果。”埃尔多安表示，乌克兰危机导致黑海地区运输粮食的通道中断，并引发粮食贸易问题。虽然土耳其并未因全球粮食短缺而遭遇困境，但世界上有些国家，特别是非洲国家正面临粮食危机。目前，土方正与联合国等有关各方一起，努力解决这一问题。俄乌局势1、乌克兰提交加入经合组织的申请乌克兰国家通讯社7月5日报道称，当天乌克兰总理什梅加尔向经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼提交了加入经合组织的申请。什梅加尔表示，乌克兰寻求尽快加入该组织，来自经合组织的支持对于乌克兰战后复苏和发展至关重要。2、英国首相约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通电话7月5日，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行了电话会晤，交流七国集团峰会和北约峰会后的最新进展。约翰逊表示，英国提供的最新军事装备，包括10种火炮装备及弹药，将在未来几天或几周时间内运抵乌克兰。泽连斯基向约翰逊告知了乌克兰国内目前的局势以及俄乌前线的最新进展。双方谈到一天前在瑞士卢加诺举行的乌克兰重建会议时，约翰逊表示欢迎乌克兰的重建计划，并期待英国主办明年的会议。公司新闻1、特斯拉公布太阳能增程拖车原型 可为电动皮卡续航综合Electrek等多家科技媒体报道，特斯拉公司在德国汉诺威举行的IdeenExpo展会上，首次展示了一款太阳能增程拖车原型。特斯拉称其可为旗下电动皮卡CyberTruck提供额外的续航里程。另外，这部拖车还配备了SpaceX的卫星互联网接收器，可以使车主在没有电信信号的地区接通互联网。2、剑指谷歌、苹果等科技巨头 欧洲议会通过两部里程碑法案当地时间7月5日，欧洲议会以压倒性多数分别通过了《数字服务法》和《数字市场法》。一些议员声称，这两部法律的通过具有里程碑意义，将能够约束谷歌、苹果等科技巨头的权力。据悉，这两部法律将于2024年1月前后生效实施。3、大众汽车将关闭位于俄罗斯的某个生产基地德国一家工会周二表示，大众汽车将关闭其在俄罗斯的两个生产基地之一，该公司根据与俄罗斯GAZ集团的合同在那里组装汽车。今年3月，大众汽车宣布，由于西方的制裁，其位于Kaluga和Nizhny Novgorod的工厂的生产将暂停，直到另行通知。4、加拿大将销毁1360万剂过期的阿斯利康新冠疫苗加拿大卫生部当地时间7月5日宣布，1360万剂阿斯利康新冠疫苗在春季过期，将被销毁。据悉，这批即将销毁的1360万剂疫苗占加拿大储存的阿斯利康新冠疫苗总数的一半以上。5、奈飞：《怪奇物语》创造了新的收视纪录当地时间周二，流媒体巨头奈飞表示，最新一季《怪奇物语》的总观看量已经超过了11.5亿小时。这意味着这部科幻剧已成为了奈飞史上最受欢迎的英语电视剧，奈飞平台上另一部播放时间超过10亿小时是去年火爆全球的韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》。6、桥水旗舰基金据称上半年收益率高达32%据媒体援引消息人士报道，得益于市场波动加剧，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金麾下旗舰基金Pure Alpha II在今年上半年实现了32%的高回报率。知情人士称，Pure Alpha II基金6月上涨了4.8%，将其自1991年成立以来的年化回报率提高到了11.4%。7、小摩唱空特斯拉：还要再跌超过40%一直以来，特斯拉都是备受华尔街关注，也争议最多的公司之一。在特斯拉第二季度的交付未达预期之后，尽管该公司在6月份的产量创下了历史最高纪录，但市场看空情绪依然弥漫。最新下调特斯拉目标价的投资银行是摩根大通。该行称，特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌超过40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047502318,"gmtCreate":1656937918634,"gmtModify":1676535918487,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047502318","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten. More than three months later, the \"nickel short squeeze war,\" known to the whole world, has finally come to an end:</p><p>Wenzhou's richest man, Xiang Guangda, and his Qingshan Group escaped unscathed, while Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its losses and exited the market, losing $120 million (approximately 800 million RMB).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings / Image source: Internet</p><p>On June 29, it was reported that Tsingshan Holdings Group safely exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The holdings have shrunk to around 30,000 tons, far below the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and none of these positions were held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is likely the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left the Wall Street tycoon with dignity; otherwise, given the circumstances at the time, $120 million would have been far from enough.</p><p>Those who are following this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind this the Swiss commodities giant Glencore? How come JPMorgan Chase ended up losing money?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterattacks, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Let's briefly review the entire process of the LME nickel incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, LME nickel futures surged from US$29,000/ton to US$55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, LME nickel futures surged from $60,000/ton to $100,000/ton, a process that took less than an hour.</p><p>At 8:15 a.m. (UK time) on March 8, the London Money Exchange suspended trading in all nickel contracts and canceled trading after midnight on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot funds through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group announced that it had reached a \"tacit agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan Group will not liquidate its holdings; thereafter, Tsingshan Group will reduce its holdings.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading resumed on the London Money Exchange.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Financial Exchange, ending the event.</p><p>At this point, those unfamiliar with the details may wonder why Tsingshan Group has been targeted by Wall Street capital.</p><p>You really can't blame Wall Street capital. Tsingshan Group has turned itself into \"Tang Sanzang's flesh,\" and who wouldn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal flaws in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the nickel delivered by Longines. The products delivered by Longines are electrolytic nickel with a purity of over 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Tsingshan Group only contains about 70% high nickel matte and about 10% ferronickel. 2. Tsingshan Group's hedging operations are problematic. At the time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures short positions, but the entire London Exchange's nickel inventory was only 80,000 tons. In other words, even if it bought all the nickel on the London Exchange, it still couldn't raise half of its futures short positions. 3. Normally, when Tsingshan Group encounters a delivery period, it will buy nickel from Russia to liquidate its positions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict reversed market logic, leading to an embargo on Russian nickel. Tsingshan Group failed to respond to this news in a timely manner. In conclusion, although Qingshan Group has a wealth of assets, it has played all its good cards at this table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and it cannot afford any cards played by others. Faced with this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which is naturally bloodthirsty, possibly let this seemingly \"sure-win\" hunt slip by? Wall Street has done something like this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street capital rapidly pushed up nickel futures prices on March 7 and 8, raising something worth $20,000 to $30,000 to $100,000, incidentally breaking \"the record for the highest price volatility of any asset.\"</p><p>The situation at the time was that if Tsingshan Group couldn't deliver its goods, it would have to lose hundreds of billions of yuan, and if it didn't have money, it would have to sell its nickel ore in Indonesia. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies had painstakingly built was likely to be severely hammered.</p><p>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten.</p><p>Although it was unknown who had done it at the time, Qingshan Group's counterattack began on March 9. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high-grade nickel matte, and has allocated sufficient spot stock through various channels for delivery.</p><p>According to rumors, several large companies in the industry participated in this replacement at the time, which can be described as a united front. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I received many phone calls, and relevant national departments and leaders were very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So why didn't Tsingshan Group hand over 200,000 tons of nickel deliverables to Wall Street buyers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods and ultimately having to sell them at a low price, losing tens of billions of US dollars?</p><p>While raising 200,000 tons of nickel for delivery can certainly solve the immediate problem, what should domestic companies do with so much nickel delivered? Should all companies stop production and wait a few months for new nickel to be produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing this was certainly satisfying, but the price paid was too high.</p><p>As a seasoned entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his rivals from March 9 to March 15, confident that he could provide 200,000 tons of deliverables, and ultimately reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short positions to turn the tide. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they prevented the losses from widening, which is an outcome acceptable to both sides.</p><p><b>Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident occurred in early March, someone pressed a calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might have lost 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of yuan. Such a large-scale short squeeze inevitably involves a considerable amount of capital.</p><p>At the time, some suspected that commodities giant Glencore was behind it all in order to acquire a 60% stake in Tsingshan's nickel mine in Indonesia. Founded in 1974, Glencore is Switzerland's largest company with revenues of US$215.11 billion and a business scope covering the supply of mineral, energy and agricultural products.</p><p>But Glencore couldn't possibly come up with so much money on its own; there must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least for now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott have been forced out, the two \"wolves from Wall Street\".</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase had already sold it in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in its nickel-related business.</p><p>There is hardly any convincing reason for Wall Street's long-established investment banks to lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures product in the first quarter, other than their involvement in the \"nickel short squeeze\" event in March. Subsequent information also proved that it was the largest counterparty to Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's off-exchange positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holdings Group owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into a quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a huge financial hole, the person in charge should at least say something.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reluctantly said, \"We had a small loss this quarter, and we will try to get through it. We will conduct an after-the-fact analysis of what we did wrong and what different measures LLM could have taken afterward.\"</p><p>This statement sounds very official, but upon closer examination, it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they were doing things for their clients; JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their clients. As for who the client was or whether it was Glencore, they did not say. Second, they have reservations about Lenkin Institute's action of \"unplugging the network cable\" and may have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already begun to take action. They don't seem to be giving up and are still making a final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Image source/Visual China</p><p>According to an announcement released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, Elliott Management, a well-known American investment firm, launched a challenge against them, arguing that the London Exchange's \"cancellation of trading after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022 is illegal.\"</p><p>Two hedge funds under Elliott Group have sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME, and its clearing house LME Clear Limite in the UK High Court, seeking approximately US$456 million, or about RMB 3 billion, in damages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977, Elliott Management managed over $51.5 billion in funds at the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce was Elliott? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, changing presidents five times in half a month, and was unable to repay its foreign debt of up to $150 billion. Just as other financial institutions were avoiding it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to buy Argentina's Treasury Bond at the bottom.</p><p>Over the next nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in an effort to revive its economy, which Elliott and his creditors rejected twice and even sued Argentina in a U.S. court. It's unimaginable how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande if its creditors disagree with its restructuring.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully offered $2.28 billion in settlement, a deal that Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win its lawsuit against the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it may be possible to see it. Because when it's time to \"divide the meat,\" the wolves of Wall Street are willing to go all out.</p><p><b>Is \"China's Nickel King\" holding Musks' Achilles' heel? /</b></p><p>According to the Daily Economic News, a Glencore representative, when asked whether they were involved in the matter, said, \"The above statement is complete nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some industry insiders believe that Glencore, even if not directly involved, is an indirect participant in this market trend. The market's speculation stems from the fact that the global competition for nickel has reached a fever pitch.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total cost of batteries. The proportion will be even higher for high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel batteries. However, nickel is unevenly distributed around the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle giants. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle affecting the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, LME's nickel inventory continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliverables are purchased in large quantities for use in manufacturing new energy batteries. The nickel deficit is projected to be -25,600 tons, -27,900 tons, and -65,300 tons in 2023, 2025, and 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just like God feeding Xiang Guangda with his rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in 1958 into an ordinary working-class family in Shacheng Town, Longwan District, Wenzhou. After graduation, I worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and even became a workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was preparing to \"turn thirty and stand firm\". He gave up his \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at the time and co-founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company\" with relatives such as Zhang Jimin.</p><p>Thanks to its emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car door and window business is doing very well. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special Shape Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\", officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that without change, the company would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-mineral heat furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop a new RKEF-AOD furnace dual-combination method technology, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>“Stainless steel is 60%-70% nickel, so who produces the nickel? It’s produced by foreigners; we don’t produce it ourselves.” Xiang Guangda then put nickel production on the agenda.</p><p>During the 2008 financial crisis, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine, which has the world's largest nickel reserves. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining rights for a laterite nickel mine covering an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China for the first time. Qingshan Holdings Group has once again mastered the technology of purifying high nickel matte from laterite nickel ore. After one operation, Xiang Guangda has connected the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With nickel in hand, stainless steel is no problem. Tsingshan Holdings Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holdings' stainless steel output increased from one million tons to ten million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. It has now firmly established itself as the world's largest stainless steel producer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent guest at local government and business symposiums.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holdings Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion yuan, ranking 279th in the Fortune Global 500. According to Tianyancha, Xiang Guangda acquired a 48.45% stake in Qingshan Holdings Group through various means, making him the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings' equity structure / Screenshot from Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, when it became the hottest track, bar none. CATL and BYD, listed on the A-share market, have market capitalizations exceeding one trillion yuan, while Tesla's market capitalization even exceeds the combined market capitalization of several established automakers.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, but Xiang Guangda has plenty of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel production was 600,000 tons in 2021, which is expected to reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, Xiang Guangda can be said to be the undisputed \"King of Nickel\" and holds a firm grip on the lifeblood of the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Not content with just \"working\" for new energy vehicles, Tsingshan Group has now joined hands with XCMG Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>However, fame brings trouble, and pigs at the forefront are the easiest targets to be targeted. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"ordeal\" safely, still needs to be careful; he has too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase loses 800 million yuan.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten. More than three months later, the \"nickel short squeeze war,\" known to the whole world, has finally come to an end:</p><p>Wenzhou's richest man, Xiang Guangda, and his Qingshan Group escaped unscathed, while Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its losses and exited the market, losing $120 million (approximately 800 million RMB).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings / Image source: Internet</p><p>On June 29, it was reported that Tsingshan Holdings Group safely exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The holdings have shrunk to around 30,000 tons, far below the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and none of these positions were held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is likely the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left the Wall Street tycoon with dignity; otherwise, given the circumstances at the time, $120 million would have been far from enough.</p><p>Those who are following this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind this the Swiss commodities giant Glencore? How come JPMorgan Chase ended up losing money?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterattacks, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Let's briefly review the entire process of the LME nickel incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, LME nickel futures surged from US$29,000/ton to US$55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, LME nickel futures surged from $60,000/ton to $100,000/ton, a process that took less than an hour.</p><p>At 8:15 a.m. (UK time) on March 8, the London Money Exchange suspended trading in all nickel contracts and canceled trading after midnight on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot funds through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group announced that it had reached a \"tacit agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan Group will not liquidate its holdings; thereafter, Tsingshan Group will reduce its holdings.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading resumed on the London Money Exchange.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group exited most of its short nickel positions on the London Financial Exchange, ending the event.</p><p>At this point, those unfamiliar with the details may wonder why Tsingshan Group has been targeted by Wall Street capital.</p><p>You really can't blame Wall Street capital. Tsingshan Group has turned itself into \"Tang Sanzang's flesh,\" and who wouldn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal flaws in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the nickel delivered by Longines. The products delivered by Longines are electrolytic nickel with a purity of over 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Tsingshan Group only contains about 70% high nickel matte and about 10% ferronickel. 2. Tsingshan Group's hedging operations are problematic. At the time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures short positions, but the entire London Exchange's nickel inventory was only 80,000 tons. In other words, even if it bought all the nickel on the London Exchange, it still couldn't raise half of its futures short positions. 3. Normally, when Tsingshan Group encounters a delivery period, it will buy nickel from Russia to liquidate its positions. The Russia-Ukraine conflict reversed market logic, leading to an embargo on Russian nickel. Tsingshan Group failed to respond to this news in a timely manner. In conclusion, although Qingshan Group has a wealth of assets, it has played all its good cards at this table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and it cannot afford any cards played by others. Faced with this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which is naturally bloodthirsty, possibly let this seemingly \"sure-win\" hunt slip by? Wall Street has done something like this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street capital rapidly pushed up nickel futures prices on March 7 and 8, raising something worth $20,000 to $30,000 to $100,000, incidentally breaking \"the record for the highest price volatility of any asset.\"</p><p>The situation at the time was that if Tsingshan Group couldn't deliver its goods, it would have to lose hundreds of billions of yuan, and if it didn't have money, it would have to sell its nickel ore in Indonesia. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies had painstakingly built was likely to be severely hammered.</p><p>Wall Street miscalculated this time. In the financial sector, Wall Street is still number one in the world, but its competitors have also improved. Through years of effort, Chinese companies have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they are still capable of fighting back when they are crushed and beaten.</p><p>Although it was unknown who had done it at the time, Qingshan Group's counterattack began on March 9. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high-grade nickel matte, and has allocated sufficient spot stock through various channels for delivery.</p><p>According to rumors, several large companies in the industry participated in this replacement at the time, which can be described as a united front. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I received many phone calls, and relevant national departments and leaders were very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So why didn't Tsingshan Group hand over 200,000 tons of nickel deliverables to Wall Street buyers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods and ultimately having to sell them at a low price, losing tens of billions of US dollars?</p><p>While raising 200,000 tons of nickel for delivery can certainly solve the immediate problem, what should domestic companies do with so much nickel delivered? Should all companies stop production and wait a few months for new nickel to be produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing this was certainly satisfying, but the price paid was too high.</p><p>As a seasoned entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his rivals from March 9 to March 15, confident that he could provide 200,000 tons of deliverables, and ultimately reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short positions to turn the tide. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they prevented the losses from widening, which is an outcome acceptable to both sides.</p><p><b>Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident occurred in early March, someone pressed a calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might have lost 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of yuan. Such a large-scale short squeeze inevitably involves a considerable amount of capital.</p><p>At the time, some suspected that commodities giant Glencore was behind it all in order to acquire a 60% stake in Tsingshan's nickel mine in Indonesia. Founded in 1974, Glencore is Switzerland's largest company with revenues of US$215.11 billion and a business scope covering the supply of mineral, energy and agricultural products.</p><p>But Glencore couldn't possibly come up with so much money on its own; there must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least for now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott have been forced out, the two \"wolves from Wall Street\".</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase had already sold it in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in its nickel-related business.</p><p>There is hardly any convincing reason for Wall Street's long-established investment banks to lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures product in the first quarter, other than their involvement in the \"nickel short squeeze\" event in March. Subsequent information also proved that it was the largest counterparty to Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's off-exchange positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holdings Group owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into a quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a huge financial hole, the person in charge should at least say something.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reluctantly said, \"We had a small loss this quarter, and we will try to get through it. We will conduct an after-the-fact analysis of what we did wrong and what different measures LLM could have taken afterward.\"</p><p>This statement sounds very official, but upon closer examination, it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they were doing things for their clients; JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their clients. As for who the client was or whether it was Glencore, they did not say. Second, they have reservations about Lenkin Institute's action of \"unplugging the network cable\" and may have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already begun to take action. They don't seem to be giving up and are still making a final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Image source/Visual China</p><p>According to an announcement released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, Elliott Management, a well-known American investment firm, launched a challenge against them, arguing that the London Exchange's \"cancellation of trading after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022 is illegal.\"</p><p>Two hedge funds under Elliott Group have sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME, and its clearing house LME Clear Limite in the UK High Court, seeking approximately US$456 million, or about RMB 3 billion, in damages.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977, Elliott Management managed over $51.5 billion in funds at the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce was Elliott? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, changing presidents five times in half a month, and was unable to repay its foreign debt of up to $150 billion. Just as other financial institutions were avoiding it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to buy Argentina's Treasury Bond at the bottom.</p><p>Over the next nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in an effort to revive its economy, which Elliott and his creditors rejected twice and even sued Argentina in a U.S. court. It's unimaginable how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande if its creditors disagree with its restructuring.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully offered $2.28 billion in settlement, a deal that Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win its lawsuit against the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it may be possible to see it. Because when it's time to \"divide the meat,\" the wolves of Wall Street are willing to go all out.</p><p><b>Is \"China's Nickel King\" holding Musks' Achilles' heel? /</b></p><p>According to the Daily Economic News, a Glencore representative, when asked whether they were involved in the matter, said, \"The above statement is complete nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some industry insiders believe that Glencore, even if not directly involved, is an indirect participant in this market trend. The market's speculation stems from the fact that the global competition for nickel has reached a fever pitch.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total cost of batteries. The proportion will be even higher for high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel batteries. However, nickel is unevenly distributed around the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle giants. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle affecting the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, LME's nickel inventory continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliverables are purchased in large quantities for use in manufacturing new energy batteries. The nickel deficit is projected to be -25,600 tons, -27,900 tons, and -65,300 tons in 2023, 2025, and 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just like God feeding Xiang Guangda with his rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in 1958 into an ordinary working-class family in Shacheng Town, Longwan District, Wenzhou. After graduation, I worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and even became a workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was preparing to \"turn thirty and stand firm\". He gave up his \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at the time and co-founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company\" with relatives such as Zhang Jimin.</p><p>Thanks to its emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car door and window business is doing very well. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special Shape Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\", officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that without change, the company would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-mineral heat furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop a new RKEF-AOD furnace dual-combination method technology, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>“Stainless steel is 60%-70% nickel, so who produces the nickel? It’s produced by foreigners; we don’t produce it ourselves.” Xiang Guangda then put nickel production on the agenda.</p><p>During the 2008 financial crisis, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine, which has the world's largest nickel reserves. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining rights for a laterite nickel mine covering an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China for the first time. Qingshan Holdings Group has once again mastered the technology of purifying high nickel matte from laterite nickel ore. After one operation, Xiang Guangda has connected the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With nickel in hand, stainless steel is no problem. Tsingshan Holdings Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holdings' stainless steel output increased from one million tons to ten million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. It has now firmly established itself as the world's largest stainless steel producer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent guest at local government and business symposiums.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holdings Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion yuan, ranking 279th in the Fortune Global 500. According to Tianyancha, Xiang Guangda acquired a 48.45% stake in Qingshan Holdings Group through various means, making him the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings' equity structure / Screenshot from Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, when it became the hottest track, bar none. CATL and BYD, listed on the A-share market, have market capitalizations exceeding one trillion yuan, while Tesla's market capitalization even exceeds the combined market capitalization of several established automakers.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, but Xiang Guangda has plenty of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel production was 600,000 tons in 2021, which is expected to reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, Xiang Guangda can be said to be the undisputed \"King of Nickel\" and holds a firm grip on the lifeblood of the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Not content with just \"working\" for new energy vehicles, Tsingshan Group has now joined hands with XCMG Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>However, fame brings trouble, and pigs at the forefront are the easiest targets to be targeted. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"ordeal\" safely, still needs to be careful; he has too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862282,"gmtCreate":1656731800646,"gmtModify":1676535886315,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045545589","repostId":"2248349068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045548547,"gmtCreate":1656637636889,"gmtModify":1676535868302,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045548547","repostId":"1155386517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155386517","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656633821,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155386517?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 08:03","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155386517","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points or 1.3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,100-point plateau and it&#39;s likely to open under pressure again on Friday.</p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets calls for continued consolidation, with energy, steel and financial stocks likely to lead the way lower. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asian markets are tipped to follow suit.</p><p>The STI finished sharply lower on Thursday following losses from the financial shares, property stocks and industrials.</p><p>For the day, the index retreated 32.66 points or 1.04 percent to finish at the daily low of 3,102.21 after peaking at 3,138.21. Volume was 1.13 billion shares worth 1.1 billion Singapore dollars. There were 290 decliners and 204 gainers.</p><p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT dipped 0.70 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust plunged 2.25 percent, CapitaLand Investment stumbled 1.29 percent, City Developments slipped 0.49 percent, Comfort DelGro gained 0.72 percent, DBS Group lost 1.07 percent, Genting Singapore retreated 1.37 percent, Hongkong Land cratered 2.14 percent, Keppel Corp was down 0.46 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust tanked 1.61 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust slid 0.76 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust dropped 1.18 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation shed 1.13 percent, SATS eased 0.26 percent, SembCorp Industries declined 1.38 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.84 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering climbed 0.99 percent, SingTel sank 1.17 percent, Thai Beverage tumbled 1.53 percent, United Overseas Bank slumped 1.35 percent, Wilmar International skidded 1.22 percent, Yangzijiang Financial plummeted 2.38 percent and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding was unchanged.</p><p>The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened sharply lower on Thursday, made back some ground as the day progressed but still ended well in the red.</p><p>The Dow dropped 253.88 points or 0.82 percent to finish at 30,775.43, while the NASDAQ tumbled 149.16 points or 1.33 percent to end at 11,028.74 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 33.45 points or 0.88 percent to close at 3,785.38.</p><p>The early sell-off on Wall Street came amid lingering concerns about the global economic outlook and the possibility of a recession. Central bank chiefs have reaffirmed their resolve to pare inflation despite threats to economic growth.</p><p>A Commerce Department report provided further evidence of an economic slowdown, showing that personal spending increased less than expected in May.</p><p>Crude oil prices moved sharply lower Thursday, extending the pullback seen in the previous session on lingering concerns about the outlook for demand amid the possibility of a recession. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery plunged $4.02 or 3.7 percent to $105.76 a barrel.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.rttnews.com/3293989/singapore-bourse-may-give-up-support-at-3100-points.aspx?type=acom><strong>RTTNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points or 1.3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,100-point plateau ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3293989/singapore-bourse-may-give-up-support-at-3100-points.aspx?type=acom\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3293989/singapore-bourse-may-give-up-support-at-3100-points.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155386517","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points or 1.3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,100-point plateau and it's likely to open under pressure again on Friday.The global forecast for the Asian markets calls for continued consolidation, with energy, steel and financial stocks likely to lead the way lower. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asian markets are tipped to follow suit.The STI finished sharply lower on Thursday following losses from the financial shares, property stocks and industrials.For the day, the index retreated 32.66 points or 1.04 percent to finish at the daily low of 3,102.21 after peaking at 3,138.21. Volume was 1.13 billion shares worth 1.1 billion Singapore dollars. There were 290 decliners and 204 gainers.Among the actives, Ascendas REIT dipped 0.70 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust plunged 2.25 percent, CapitaLand Investment stumbled 1.29 percent, City Developments slipped 0.49 percent, Comfort DelGro gained 0.72 percent, DBS Group lost 1.07 percent, Genting Singapore retreated 1.37 percent, Hongkong Land cratered 2.14 percent, Keppel Corp was down 0.46 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust tanked 1.61 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust slid 0.76 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust dropped 1.18 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation shed 1.13 percent, SATS eased 0.26 percent, SembCorp Industries declined 1.38 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.84 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering climbed 0.99 percent, SingTel sank 1.17 percent, Thai Beverage tumbled 1.53 percent, United Overseas Bank slumped 1.35 percent, Wilmar International skidded 1.22 percent, Yangzijiang Financial plummeted 2.38 percent and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding was unchanged.The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened sharply lower on Thursday, made back some ground as the day progressed but still ended well in the red.The Dow dropped 253.88 points or 0.82 percent to finish at 30,775.43, while the NASDAQ tumbled 149.16 points or 1.33 percent to end at 11,028.74 and the S&P 500 sank 33.45 points or 0.88 percent to close at 3,785.38.The early sell-off on Wall Street came amid lingering concerns about the global economic outlook and the possibility of a recession. Central bank chiefs have reaffirmed their resolve to pare inflation despite threats to economic growth.A Commerce Department report provided further evidence of an economic slowdown, showing that personal spending increased less than expected in May.Crude oil prices moved sharply lower Thursday, extending the pullback seen in the previous session on lingering concerns about the outlook for demand amid the possibility of a recession. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery plunged $4.02 or 3.7 percent to $105.76 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045920120,"gmtCreate":1656552243160,"gmtModify":1676535852191,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045920120","repostId":"1124599394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124599394","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656550652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124599394?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 08:57","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124599394","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Jun 30):</p><p><b>Yanlord Land Group(Z25):</b> Yanlord Land Group has pulled in RMB 6.1 billion (S$1.28 billion) in pre-sales from selling all units in the third batch of apartments launched for its Shanghai project, Yanlord Arcadia.</p><p><b>Straits Trading(S20):</b> Straits Real Estate, a unit of mainboard-listed Straits Trading, is acquiring a portfolio of office and industrial buildings and several plots of development land in Gloucester Business Park for £130 million (S$219.5 million).</p><p><b>TTJ(K1Q): </b>THC Venture, which has made a bid to privatise structural steel specialist TTJ Holdings, does not intend to raise its offer price of S$0.23 per share, it said in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing.</p><p><b>Second Chance(528):</b> BETTER Chance Properties (BCP), a subsidiary of mainboard-listed Second Chance Properties, has granted a potential buyer an option to purchase its Lucky Plaza units for S$13.39 million.</p><p>The potential buyer of the units, #01-56/57/58/59, is Lew Chee Beng and/or his nominee, Second Chance disclosed in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing. The option will expire on Aug 1. An option fee of 1 per cent of the sale price has been paid to BCP.</p><p><b>IWOW(NXR):</b> Tracetogether token maker iWOW Technology saw its net profit inch up 4 per cent to S$3.9 million for FY2022 ended March, on the back of growth across all its business segments.</p><p>iWOW declared a final dividend of 0.36 Singapore cent a share. Excluding one-off expenses from its initial public offering in April, its net profit grew 36 per cent to S$5 million for the year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-30 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Jun 30):</p><p><b>Yanlord Land Group(Z25):</b> Yanlord Land Group has pulled in RMB 6.1 billion (S$1.28 billion) in pre-sales from selling all units in the third batch of apartments launched for its Shanghai project, Yanlord Arcadia.</p><p><b>Straits Trading(S20):</b> Straits Real Estate, a unit of mainboard-listed Straits Trading, is acquiring a portfolio of office and industrial buildings and several plots of development land in Gloucester Business Park for £130 million (S$219.5 million).</p><p><b>TTJ(K1Q): </b>THC Venture, which has made a bid to privatise structural steel specialist TTJ Holdings, does not intend to raise its offer price of S$0.23 per share, it said in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing.</p><p><b>Second Chance(528):</b> BETTER Chance Properties (BCP), a subsidiary of mainboard-listed Second Chance Properties, has granted a potential buyer an option to purchase its Lucky Plaza units for S$13.39 million.</p><p>The potential buyer of the units, #01-56/57/58/59, is Lew Chee Beng and/or his nominee, Second Chance disclosed in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing. The option will expire on Aug 1. An option fee of 1 per cent of the sale price has been paid to BCP.</p><p><b>IWOW(NXR):</b> Tracetogether token maker iWOW Technology saw its net profit inch up 4 per cent to S$3.9 million for FY2022 ended March, on the back of growth across all its business segments.</p><p>iWOW declared a final dividend of 0.36 Singapore cent a share. Excluding one-off expenses from its initial public offering in April, its net profit grew 36 per cent to S$5 million for the year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"K1Q.SI":"TTJ控股","Z25.SI":"仁恒置地集团有限公司","S20.SI":"海峡贸易有限公司.","NXR.SI":"爱物联科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124599394","content_text":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Jun 30):Yanlord Land Group(Z25): Yanlord Land Group has pulled in RMB 6.1 billion (S$1.28 billion) in pre-sales from selling all units in the third batch of apartments launched for its Shanghai project, Yanlord Arcadia.Straits Trading(S20): Straits Real Estate, a unit of mainboard-listed Straits Trading, is acquiring a portfolio of office and industrial buildings and several plots of development land in Gloucester Business Park for £130 million (S$219.5 million).TTJ(K1Q): THC Venture, which has made a bid to privatise structural steel specialist TTJ Holdings, does not intend to raise its offer price of S$0.23 per share, it said in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing.Second Chance(528): BETTER Chance Properties (BCP), a subsidiary of mainboard-listed Second Chance Properties, has granted a potential buyer an option to purchase its Lucky Plaza units for S$13.39 million.The potential buyer of the units, #01-56/57/58/59, is Lew Chee Beng and/or his nominee, Second Chance disclosed in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing. The option will expire on Aug 1. An option fee of 1 per cent of the sale price has been paid to BCP.IWOW(NXR): Tracetogether token maker iWOW Technology saw its net profit inch up 4 per cent to S$3.9 million for FY2022 ended March, on the back of growth across all its business segments.iWOW declared a final dividend of 0.36 Singapore cent a share. Excluding one-off expenses from its initial public offering in April, its net profit grew 36 per cent to S$5 million for the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"528.SI":0.9,"K1Q.SI":0.9,"S20.SI":0.9,"Z25.SI":0.9,"NXR.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962510,"gmtCreate":1656552018430,"gmtModify":1676535852113,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962510","repostId":"1156002058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156002058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656549444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156002058?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156002058","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may requi","content":"<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-30 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156002058","content_text":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation, forcing central bankers to tear up their playbook of the last 20 years.That was a key message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his European counterparts on Wednesday as they debated how to tackle persistent price pressures and slower growth.“I don’t think we are going to go back to that environment of low inflation,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.“There are forces that have been unleashed as a result of the pandemic, as a result of this massive geopolitical shock we are facing now that are going to change the picture and the landscape within which we operate,” she said during a 90-minute panel discussion moderated by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua.Her comments, alongside those of Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, mean a potential upheaval of monetary policy practice. For years, the critical foe facing central bankers was too-low inflation -- pushing them to deploy near-zero interest rates and massive bond purchases to lift their economies during recessions and feeble recoveries.The common enemy now is sizzling price pressures, which have surged to 40-year highs in the US as pandemic-tangled supply chains and Russia - Ukraine war sink predictions they will prove fleeting, forcing central bankers to hit the brakes: The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this month -- the largest increase since 1994 -- and signaled it could do the same in July.For Powell and his colleagues, a conclusion that underlying inflation is at risk of drifting higher and becoming unmoored from the Fed’s 2% target could spell an even-more aggressive policy pivot than suggested by their June forecast.That outlook -- which already shows the most hawkish Fed action since the 1990s, projects rates rising another 175 basis points this year and peaking between 3.75% and 4% in 2023. The following year, however, officials pencil in modest rate cuts as growth moderates and inflation turns back toward target.Policy makers “are saying there is going to be some pain and we may not get the soft landing we want, but having this high inflation and high inflation expectations is worse,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington. “This is a major shift” and may forestall rate cuts in 2024.De-GlobalizationThe Fed chief warned of a “re-division of the world into competing geopolitical and economic camps, and a reversal of globalization” that could result in lower productivity and growth.The risk of longer-lasting scarcity as the world reorders can already be seen. Inflation rates in the U.S, U.K, and the eurozone are far above their targets and the worry is that they could be persistently so as global trading and production patterns reconfigure.“It’s how you deal with a series of large supply shocks with no air gap between them, which of course feeds through into expectations,” Bailey said. “Put them all together, they’re not transitory in the traditional sense of the term.”For decades, advanced economies enjoyed a tailwind from globalization. In the terminology of central banking, inflation expectations were anchored and that allowed central banks to allow labor markets to run hotter. Access to off-shore labor also gutted worker bargaining power, further undercutting inflation but at a social cost as wages stagnated.“The last ten years were so far the height of the disinflationary forces that we faced,” Powell said. “That world seems to be gone now at least for the time being. We are living with different forces now and have to think about monetary policy in a very different way.”The Fed in 2020 reorientated its policy approach to tackle the problem of too-low inflation, adopting a strategy that committed to not reacting preemptively to forecasts of higher inflation as the labor market tightened and redefining the full-employment side of its mandate to be broad and inclusive.Powell acknowledged that the current environment raised questions about whether this approach was still fit for purpose.“If you want to know the lessons to be learned of the last ten years, look at our framework. Those were all based on a low inflation environment that we had. And now we are in this new world where it is quite different with higher inflation and many supply shocks and strong inflationary forces around the world.”Central bankers worry that unrelenting price increases could shift households and businesses into a state where expectations are based on more recent inflation experience.“To the extent that there are a series of shocks, it does become rational for people to pay more and more attention,” Powell said. “The clock is kind of running” on how long the Fed can count on low expectations before they move higher. “We will prevent that from happening.”In earlier remarks on Wednesday in Sintra, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said officials now face an asymmetric choice, warning that the error of assuming inflation expectations are well anchored when they aren’t is more costly than tightening policy too aggressively to make sure they stay that way.Jens Weidmann, former President of Germany’s Bundesbank, made a similar argument at a separate event earlier this week in Basel, cautioning against the gradualism that had been a hallmark of central banking until this year.“The more persistent the shock proves to be, the more the delay in monetary tightening increases the risk that companies, households and workers will start to expect that high inflation is here to stay,” Weidmannsaidon June 26.  “In order to prevent de-anchoring, the persistence of inflation should be overstated rather than understated, and a forceful monetary policy response is advisable precisely when uncertainty about it is particularly high.”Powell implicitly acknowledged the asymmetric choice -- conceding that officials could err and tip the economy into a recession, but arguing that was the lesser of two evils.“We are committed to and will succeed in getting inflation down to 2%,” he said. “The process is highly likely to involve some pain. But the worse pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518411,"gmtCreate":1656497204633,"gmtModify":1676535840654,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518411","repostId":"1148096186","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148096186","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656486106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148096186?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148096186","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Bu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.</li><li>Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.</li><li>Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS&#39; dominance in enterprise software.</li><li>Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.</li></ul><p>If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn&#39;t hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.</p><p>It&#39;s time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435db134f2fc8dbf9289c062fbad1864\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><b>What&#39;s going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn&#39;t justify the massive share price collapse</b></p><p>First of all, let&#39;s address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you&#39;ll notice that Palantir&#39;s correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and &#34;risk off&#34; attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.</p><p>Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir&#39;s Q2 guidance outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8c07bb7c75548a94a1abbbf47d3b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For Q2, Palantir is guiding to &#34;base case&#34; revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.</p><p>The key thing here, however: <b>Palantir has a &#34;wide range&#34; of potential upside drivers to this forecast.</b> The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir&#39;s go-to-market performance.</p><p><b>The long-term bull case is still vibrant</b></p><p>Wall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.</p><p>It&#39;s important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669be31c4037d75a919175406729f826\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company&#39;s PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar&#39;s prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:</p><blockquote>The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.</blockquote><blockquote>With Foundry, you&#39;re 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.</blockquote><blockquote>That&#39;s why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That&#39;s why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry&#39;s application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.</blockquote><blockquote>What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.&#34;</blockquote><p>Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:</p><ul><li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b> Palantir isn&#39;t a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li><li><b>Growth at scale.</b> Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it&#39;s a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir&#39;s products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li><li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b> Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir&#39;s products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir&#39;s direct sales force can&#39;t handle.</li><li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li><li><b>Free cash flow.</b> Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li></ul><p>In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.</p><p><b>Formidable growth continues</b></p><p>Nor should investors get the impression that Palantir&#39;s growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir&#39;s Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833acc59cf63e20602348b8cb23afb9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir&#39;s business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2cdeb72f8b2a25fe7b7a3a8320408f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For now, Palantir&#39;s growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there&#39;s plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.</p><p><b>GAAP margins are drifting toward breakeven</b></p><p>One final point to extract from Palantir&#39;s latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir&#39;s high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir&#39;s stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7c309dbda404642f0722d408632b6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p><b>Valuation and key takeaways</b></p><p>In spite of Palantir&#39;s strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir&#39;s most recent balance sheet, its resulting <b>enterprise value is $17.16 billion.</b></p><p>For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir&#39;s stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street&#39;s consensus figures, the stock trades at:</p><ul><li><b>8.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li><li><b>6.7x EV/FY23 revenue</b></li></ul><p>There was a time when A) Palantir traded north of &gt;25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I&#39;m not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.</p><p><b>The bottom line here:</b> Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don&#39;t miss this buying opportunity.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 15:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148096186","content_text":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS' dominance in enterprise software.Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn't hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.It's time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.Data byYChartsWhat's going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn't justify the massive share price collapseFirst of all, let's address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you'll notice that Palantir's correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and \"risk off\" attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir's Q2 guidance outlook.Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For Q2, Palantir is guiding to \"base case\" revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.The key thing here, however: Palantir has a \"wide range\" of potential upside drivers to this forecast. The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir's go-to-market performance.The long-term bull case is still vibrantWall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.It's important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company's PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.With Foundry, you're 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.That's why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That's why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry's application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.\"Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways. Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.Growth at scale. Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).Stepping up go-to-market momentum. Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.One foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.Free cash flow. Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.Formidable growth continuesNor should investors get the impression that Palantir's growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir's Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir's business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For now, Palantir's growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there's plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.GAAP margins are drifting toward breakevenOne final point to extract from Palantir's latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir's high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir's stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Valuation and key takeawaysIn spite of Palantir's strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir's most recent balance sheet, its resulting enterprise value is $17.16 billion.For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir's stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street's consensus figures, the stock trades at:8.6x EV/FY22 revenue6.7x EV/FY23 revenueThere was a time when A) Palantir traded north of >25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I'm not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.The bottom line here: Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don't miss this buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518026,"gmtCreate":1656497103465,"gmtModify":1676535840654,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518026","repostId":"2247335031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2247335031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656515616,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2247335031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 23:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247335031","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfoli","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba&#39;s stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don&#39;t think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.</p><p>After analyzing Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today&#39;s note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba&#39;s stock at current levels. Here we go.</p><h2>5 Reasons To Buy Alibaba</h2><ul><li><b>Solid Business Fundamentals</b></li></ul><p>In Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba&#39;s gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba&#39;s revenues and margins will start expanding once again.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f832b08e66d361bbb5c51f7355f977\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>In recent quarters, Alibaba&#39;s margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year&#39;s burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b8f7d033c114324988b2dc1f3407c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>With roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba&#39;s management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a65cd79cb85db43d377e4030d3f406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>According to Alibaba&#39;s Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -</p><blockquote>The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba&#39;s long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba&#39;s stock price does not fairly reflect the company&#39;s value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.</blockquote><p>I agree with Toby. Let&#39;s find out why.</p><ul><li><b>Dirt Cheap Valuations</b></li></ul><p>When I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba&#39;s stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97154790c41df6813966a9c0226a5d43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t think Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba&#39;s valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).</p><ul><li><b>Improving Quant Factor Grades</b></li></ul><p>After the recent run-up in Alibaba&#39;s stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from &#34;C-&#34; to &#34;B+&#34;. I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba&#39;s momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba&#39;s factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7da606c3f053f0884d0de15d76984d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating</p><p>With profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba&#39;s stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of &#39;Hold&#39; [3.30] on SA&#39;s Quant Rating System.</p><ul><li><b>A Trend Reversal On The Technical Charts</b></li></ul><p>Alibaba&#39;s technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don&#39;t expect Alibaba&#39;s stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da230de0660c27b79cb293f0e3a75813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.</blockquote><p>Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).</p><ul><li><b>Signs of regulatory policy relaxation</b></li></ul><p>Over the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.</p><h2>2 Reasons To Sell Alibaba</h2><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don&#39;t think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.</p><ul><li><b>Poor Macroeconomic Environment</b></li></ul><p>Like most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba&#39;s sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba&#39;s free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.</p><ul><li><b>Potential Delisting in the US</b></li></ul><p>While Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba&#39;s ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].</p><h2>Bottom Line</h2><p>Even after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba&#39;s stock a &#34;Buy&#34;. As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2247335031","content_text":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba's stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don't think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.After analyzing Alibaba's Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today's note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba's stock at current levels. Here we go.5 Reasons To Buy AlibabaSolid Business FundamentalsIn Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba's fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba's gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba's revenues and margins will start expanding once again.YChartsIn recent quarters, Alibaba's margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year's burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.YChartsWith roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba's management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).YChartsAccording to Alibaba's Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba's long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba's stock price does not fairly reflect the company's value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.I agree with Toby. Let's find out why.Dirt Cheap ValuationsWhen I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba's stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).YChartsHonestly, I don't think Alibaba's Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba's valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).Improving Quant Factor GradesAfter the recent run-up in Alibaba's stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from \"C-\" to \"B+\". I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba's momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba's factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.Seeking Alpha Quant RatingWith profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba's stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba's fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of 'Hold' [3.30] on SA's Quant Rating System.A Trend Reversal On The Technical ChartsAlibaba's technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don't expect Alibaba's stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).Signs of regulatory policy relaxationOver the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.2 Reasons To Sell AlibabaConsidering Alibaba's healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don't think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.Poor Macroeconomic EnvironmentLike most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba's sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba's free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.Potential Delisting in the USWhile Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba's ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].Bottom LineEven after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba's stock a \"Buy\". As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.Key Takeaway: I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9070278831,"gmtCreate":1657070331623,"gmtModify":1676535943897,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278831","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126427898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657065123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126427898?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126427898","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks rallied in open low, staging a dramatic comeback. The Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose. ② Commodities plummeted, with US crude oil falling below $100 and gold hitting its lowest closing price this year; ③ Amid recession concerns, the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point; ④ A major earthquake struck British politics, with two high-ranking officials announcing their resignations on the same day. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed overnight, with major tech stocks rising across the board.</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in open low on Tuesday and closed mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields driving tech stocks higher. At the close, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42%.</p><p>Major tech stocks all rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 3.60%, and Meta rose 5.10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 1.85%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.23%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Up 2.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>It surged over 19%, and its Hong Kong stock price surged over 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks surged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 3.84%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up 6.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Faraday Future rose 6.10%, while Faraday Future rose 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed lower across the board, with major indices falling by more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX down 2.91% and France's CAC40 down 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, falling below the $100 mark.</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 a barrel, marking the biggest drop since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>Citigroup warned that if a severe demand recession occurs, prices could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an eight-month low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price so far this year. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, their lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. LME copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark and hitting a 17-month low, as recession concerns dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit down.</p><p>6. US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession concerns.</p><p>On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose as much as 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later reversed its rise, falling to a low of 2.8% due to renewed economic concerns. During trading, the 2-year yield rose slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inverted curve indicates that the market believes that an economic slowdown will eventually lead to a decline in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesperson: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>From June 28 to 29, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on resuming compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear issue, but the expected progress was not achieved. On July 5 local time, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Price stated at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omeprone BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5 local time, the BA.5 subtype of the mutated Omeprone strain of the novel coronavirus has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States. Data shows that BA.5 subtype infections currently account for 53.6% of new COVID-19 infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infections account for 16.5%, and the two together account for about 70% of the total number of COVID-19 infections.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, a 56% increase in 8 days.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared to the 3,413 cases reported by the WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year.</p><p>According to the latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5, global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year due to soaring prices and the possibility of further reductions in Russian natural gas supply, and will increase slowly in the following years. The report states that global natural gas consumption is expected to decrease by 0.5% this year compared to 2021 levels; Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by only 140 billion cubic meters by 2025 compared to 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to impose a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, totaling nearly $20 billion.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the Russian parliament approved a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. This move will inject the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into the Russian treasury as natural gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (approximately US$19.72 billion) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs the approval of the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian Oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike that began in the early hours of the day at Equinor ended. According to reports, the Norwegian government intervened in the strike through the Mandatory Wage Board, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labor disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, directly targeting Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations, both pointing the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid stated that he had lost faith in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest following a series of scandals, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's government in good conscience. Mr Javid said many MPs and the public had lost faith in Mr Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary.</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahavi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahavi was previously the British Education Secretary. In addition, Steve Barkley has been appointed as the new Health Secretary, replacing Javid. Barkley had previously been Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Türkiye stated that it will push for negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation route to achieve results as soon as possible.</p><p>On July 5 local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Türkiye will strive to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on secure food transportation routes in the Black Sea. Erdogan said, \"We will strive to intensify negotiations with Russia and Ukraine and achieve results within a week or ten days.\" Erdogan stated that the Ukraine crisis has disrupted grain transportation routes in the Black Sea region and triggered food trade issues. Although Türkiye is not suffering from global food shortages, some countries around the world, particularly in Africa, are facing food crises. Currently, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to resolve this issue.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Ukraine submits its application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal submitted his application to join the OECD to OECD Secretary-General Matthias Coleman that day. Shmejar stated that Ukraine is seeking to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial for Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky.</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss the latest developments following the G7 and NATO summits. Johnson stated that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery pieces and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks. Zelensky briefed Johnson on the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front. When both sides spoke about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held a day earlier in Lugano, Switzerland, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla unveils solar-powered range-extended trailer prototype that can provide range for electric pickup trucks.</a></p><p>According to reports from multiple tech media outlets, including Electrek, Tesla showcased a prototype of a solar-powered range-extended trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla claims it can provide additional range for its CyberTruck electric pickup truck. In addition, the trailer is equipped with SpaceX's satellite internet receiver, which allows the owner to connect to the internet in areas without telecommunications signal.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">The European Parliament passed two landmark bills targeting tech giants such as Google and Apple.</a></p><p>On July 5 local time, the European Parliament passed the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act by an overwhelming majority. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to curb the power of tech giants such as Google and Apple. It is understood that these two laws will take effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia.</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where the company assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said on Tuesday. In March of this year, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canada will destroy 13.6 million doses of expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5 that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines stored in Canada.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things sets new ratings record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming giant Netflix said that the latest season of Stranger Things has been watched more than 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English-language TV series in Netflix's history. Another Netflix drama with over 1 billion hours of viewing time is the globally popular Korean drama \"Squid Game\" last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund reportedly achieved a return of 32% in the first half of the year.</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return of 32% in the first half of this year, thanks to increased market volatility. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, raising its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan Chase is bearish on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40% again.</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Both are among the most watched and controversial companies on Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations, despite the company's record-breaking production in June, bearish sentiment remains prevalent in the market. The latest investment bank to lower its target price for Tesla is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 The bank stated that Tesla's stock price could fall by more than 40% from current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | US stocks rebounded with a deep V overnight! Surge in US Treasury bonds boosts tech stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-06 07:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Overnight, US stocks rallied in open low, staging a dramatic comeback. The Nasdaq rose 1.75%, and most Chinese concept stocks rose. ② Commodities plummeted, with US crude oil falling below $100 and gold hitting its lowest closing price this year; ③ Amid recession concerns, the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point; ④ A major earthquake struck British politics, with two high-ranking officials announcing their resignations on the same day. Overseas markets</p><p>1. US stocks closed mixed overnight, with major tech stocks rising across the board.</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in open low on Tuesday and closed mixed, with lower Treasury Bond yields driving tech stocks higher. At the close, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.75%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42%.</p><p>Major tech stocks all rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.89%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 3.60%, and Meta rose 5.10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 4.16%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 3.30%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up 2.55%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCFT\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>Up nearly 19%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 3.56%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 1.85%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.78%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.63%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 1.82%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 11.28%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.23%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Up 2.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Up 4.78%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06638\">OneConnect Financial Technology</a>It surged over 19%, and its Hong Kong stock price surged over 40% the day after its listing. New energy vehicle stocks surged.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose 3.84%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>Up 6.11%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Faraday Future rose 6.10%, while Faraday Future rose 48.73%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed lower across the board, with major indices falling by more than 2%.</p><p>European stocks closed lower across the board on Tuesday, with Germany's DAX down 2.91% and France's CAC40 down 2.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 2.86%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil plunged 8.2%, falling below the $100 mark.</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling below the $100 per barrel mark, hitting their lowest closing price in two months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $8.93, or 8.24%, at $99.50 a barrel, marking the biggest drop since mid-March and the lowest closing price since May 10.</p><p>Citigroup warned that if a severe demand recession occurs, prices could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and $45 by the end of 2023.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 2.1% on Tuesday, hitting an eight-month low.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed sharply lower on Tuesday, hitting their lowest closing price so far this year. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $37.60, or 2.10%, at $1,763.90 a barrel, their lowest closing price since early December.</p><p>Gold fell sharply on Tuesday along with silver, copper and other commodities. LME copper closed down more than 4%, falling below the $8,000 mark and hitting a 17-month low, as recession concerns dominated the market. ICE cotton futures prices once hit the daily limit down.</p><p>6. US Treasury bonds surged, and the 2-5 year yield curve inverted at one point amid recession concerns.</p><p>On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose as much as 10 basis points to 2.98% in overseas trading, but later reversed its rise, falling to a low of 2.8% due to renewed economic concerns. During trading, the 2-year yield rose slightly above the 10-year yield for the first time since mid-June and above the 5-year yield for the first time since March 2020. This inverted curve indicates that the market believes that an economic slowdown will eventually lead to a decline in short-term interest rates.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. US State Department spokesperson: There are no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>From June 28 to 29, under the coordination of the European Union, Iran and the United States held indirect negotiations in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on resuming compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear issue, but the expected progress was not achieved. On July 5 local time, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Price stated at a briefing that there are currently no plans for another round of negotiations with Iran.</p><p>2. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Omeprone BA.5 subtype has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 5 local time, the BA.5 subtype of the mutated Omeprone strain of the novel coronavirus has become the main strain causing COVID-19 in the United States. Data shows that BA.5 subtype infections currently account for 53.6% of new COVID-19 infections in the United States, while BA.4 subtype infections account for 16.5%, and the two together account for about 70% of the total number of COVID-19 infections.</p><p>3. WHO: More than 5,300 monkeypox cases have been reported globally, a 56% increase in 8 days.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of June 30, many countries around the world had reported 5,322 laboratory-confirmed cases of monkeypox, including one death. At a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Fatila Shaib told reporters that the number of confirmed cases increased by 56% compared to the 3,413 cases reported by the WHO on June 22.</p><p>4. The International Energy Agency expects natural gas consumption to decrease slightly this year.</p><p>According to the latest quarterly report on the natural gas market released by the International Energy Agency on July 5, global natural gas consumption will decrease slightly this year due to soaring prices and the possibility of further reductions in Russian natural gas supply, and will increase slowly in the following years. The report states that global natural gas consumption is expected to decrease by 0.5% this year compared to 2021 levels; Global natural gas demand is projected to increase by only 140 billion cubic meters by 2025 compared to 2021.</p><p>5. Russia is about to impose a windfall profits tax on natural gas giants, totaling nearly $20 billion.</p><p>On July 5 local time, the Russian parliament approved a temporary windfall profits tax on energy giant Gazprom. This move will inject the equivalent of nearly $20 billion into the Russian treasury as natural gas prices soar. According to a bill passed by the Russian State Duma on Tuesday, Gazprom will pay an additional 1.25 trillion rubles (approximately US$19.72 billion) in mineral extraction taxes between September and November, or 416 billion rubles per month. The bill still needs the approval of the Russian Federation Council and the President.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STO\">Norwegian Oil</a>Industry strike ends</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, with the intervention of the Norwegian government, the strike that began in the early hours of the day at Equinor ended. According to reports, the Norwegian government intervened in the strike through the Mandatory Wage Board, a mandatory measure the government can implement to stop ongoing labor disputes.</p><p>7. A major earthquake in British politics? Two senior officials announced their resignations on the same day, directly targeting Prime Minister Johnson.</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has suffered another serious political blow as two senior officials announced their resignations. On Tuesday (July 5) local time, British Health Secretary Syed Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced their resignations, both pointing the finger at Prime Minister Johnson. In his resignation letter, Javid stated that he had lost faith in Johnson's ability to govern in the national interest following a series of scandals, and that he could no longer serve in Johnson's government in good conscience. Mr Javid said many MPs and the public had lost faith in Mr Johnson.</p><p>8. The British Prime Minister appoints new Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary.</p><p>On the evening of July 5 local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the appointment of Nadeem Zahavi to succeed Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Zahavi was previously the British Education Secretary. In addition, Steve Barkley has been appointed as the new Health Secretary, replacing Javid. Barkley had previously been Johnson's chief of staff.</p><p>9. Türkiye stated that it will push for negotiations on the Black Sea grain transportation route to achieve results as soon as possible.</p><p>On July 5 local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Türkiye will strive to reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on secure food transportation routes in the Black Sea. Erdogan said, \"We will strive to intensify negotiations with Russia and Ukraine and achieve results within a week or ten days.\" Erdogan stated that the Ukraine crisis has disrupted grain transportation routes in the Black Sea region and triggered food trade issues. Although Türkiye is not suffering from global food shortages, some countries around the world, particularly in Africa, are facing food crises. Currently, Turkey is working with the United Nations and other relevant parties to resolve this issue.</p><p>Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. Ukraine submits its application to join the OECD</p><p>The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on July 5 that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal submitted his application to join the OECD to OECD Secretary-General Matthias Coleman that day. Shmejar stated that Ukraine is seeking to join the organization as soon as possible, and support from the OECD is crucial for Ukraine's post-war recovery and development.</p><p>2. British Prime Minister Johnson spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky.</p><p>On July 5, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss the latest developments following the G7 and NATO summits. Johnson stated that the latest military equipment provided by the UK, including 10 types of artillery pieces and ammunition, will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks. Zelensky briefed Johnson on the current situation in Ukraine and the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine front. When both sides spoke about the Ukraine reconstruction conference held a day earlier in Lugano, Switzerland, Johnson said he welcomed Ukraine's reconstruction plan and looked forward to Britain hosting next year's conference.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249582036\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla unveils solar-powered range-extended trailer prototype that can provide range for electric pickup trucks.</a></p><p>According to reports from multiple tech media outlets, including Electrek, Tesla showcased a prototype of a solar-powered range-extended trailer for the first time at the IdeenExpo exhibition in Hanover, Germany. Tesla claims it can provide additional range for its CyberTruck electric pickup truck. In addition, the trailer is equipped with SpaceX's satellite internet receiver, which allows the owner to connect to the internet in areas without telecommunications signal.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249583502\" target=\"_blank\">The European Parliament passed two landmark bills targeting tech giants such as Google and Apple.</a></p><p>On July 5 local time, the European Parliament passed the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act by an overwhelming majority. Some lawmakers claim that the passage of these two laws is a milestone and will be able to curb the power of tech giants such as Google and Apple. It is understood that these two laws will take effect around January 2024.</p><p>3. Volkswagen will close a production base in Russia.</p><p>Volkswagen will close one of its two production sites in Russia, where the company assembles cars under a contract with Russia's GAZ Group, a German union said on Tuesday. In March of this year, Volkswagen announced that production at its plants in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod would be suspended until further notice due to Western sanctions.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249258727\" target=\"_blank\">Canada will destroy 13.6 million doses of expired AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine</a></p><p>Health Canada announced on July 5 that 13.6 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine expired in the spring and will be destroyed. It is reported that this batch of 13.6 million doses of vaccine to be destroyed accounts for more than half of the total number of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines stored in Canada.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2248989013\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix: Stranger Things sets new ratings record</a></p><p>On Tuesday local time, streaming giant Netflix said that the latest season of Stranger Things has been watched more than 1.15 billion hours. This means that this science fiction drama has become the most popular English-language TV series in Netflix's history. Another Netflix drama with over 1 billion hours of viewing time is the globally popular Korean drama \"Squid Game\" last year.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249853938\" target=\"_blank\">Bridgewater's flagship fund reportedly achieved a return of 32% in the first half of the year.</a></p><p>According to media reports citing sources, Pure Alpha II, the flagship fund of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, achieved a high return of 32% in the first half of this year, thanks to increased market volatility. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha II fund rose 4.8% in June, raising its annualized return since its inception in 1991 to 11.4%.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2249553688\" target=\"_blank\">JPMorgan Chase is bearish on Tesla: it will fall by more than 40% again.</a></p><p>All along,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Both are among the most watched and controversial companies on Wall Street. After Tesla's second-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations, despite the company's record-breaking production in June, bearish sentiment remains prevalent in the market. The latest investment bank to lower its target price for Tesla is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>。 The bank stated that Tesla's stock price could fall by more than 40% from current levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126427898","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股低开高走上演绝地反击，纳指涨1.75%，中概股多数走高；②大宗商品重挫，美油跌破100美元，黄金创今年以来最低收盘价；③衰退担忧下，2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂；④英国政坛大地震，两位高官同日宣布辞职。海外市场1、隔夜美股收盘涨跌不一 大型科技股全线上涨美股周二低开高走，收盘涨跌不一，国债收益率走低推动科技股上涨。截至收盘，纳指涨1.75%，标普500指数涨0.16%，道指跌0.42%。大型科技股悉数上涨，苹果涨1.89%，亚马逊涨3.60%，Meta涨5.10%，谷歌涨4.16%，微软涨1.26%，奈飞涨3.30%，特斯拉涨2.55%。2、热门中概股多数走高金融壹账通涨近19%热门中概股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.56%，京东跌1.85%，拼多多涨2.78%，哔哩哔哩涨3.63%，百度涨1.82%，新东方涨11.28%，网易跌1.23%，爱奇艺涨2.52%，好未来涨4.78%；金融壹账通大涨超19%，其港股上市次日大涨超40%。新能源汽车股大涨，蔚来汽车涨3.84%，小鹏汽车涨6.11%，理想汽车涨6.10%，法拉第未来48.73%。3、欧股收盘全线下跌 主要股指均跌逾2%欧股周二收盘全线下跌，德国DAX指数跌2.91%，法国CAC40指数跌2.68%，英国富时100指数跌2.86%。4、美国WTI原油重挫8.2%跌破100美元关口原油期货价格周二大幅收跌，美国WTI原油期货跌破每桶100美元关口，创两个月来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌8.93美元，跌幅为8.24%，报收于每桶99.50美元，创3月中旬以来最大跌幅，以及5月10日以来的最低收盘价。花旗集团警告称，如果需求严重衰退到来，到今年年底可能会跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底跌至45美元。5、纽约黄金期货周二收跌2.1% 创8个月新低纽约黄金期货价格周二大幅收跌，并创今年迄今的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格收跌37.60美元，跌幅为2.10%，报收于每桶1763.90美元，创12月初以来的最低收盘价。周二黄金与白银、铜和其他大宗商品一起大幅下跌。伦铜收跌逾4%，跌破8000美元关口，创最近17个月低点，经济衰退忧虑主导市场。ICE棉花期货价格一度触及跌停。6、美债掀起惊涛 衰退担忧下2-5年期收益率曲线一度倒挂周二基准10年期美国国债收益率在海外交易中一度上涨10个基点至2.98%，但后来由于经济忧虑再度涌现，收益率涨势逆转，最低跌到了2.8%。盘中，2年期收益率一度自6月中旬以来首次略高于10年期收益率，并且自2020年3月以来首次高于5年期收益率。这种曲线倒挂现象表明市场认为经济放缓最终会导致短期利率下行。国际宏观1、美国务院发言人：没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划6月28日至29日，在欧盟的协调下，伊朗和美国在卡塔尔首都多哈就伊朗核问题全面协议恢复履约举行间接谈判，但没有取得预期的进展。当地时间7月5日，美国国务院发言人普赖斯在简报会上称，目前没有与伊朗进行另一轮谈判的计划。2、美疾控中心：奥密克戎BA.5亚型已成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株根据美国疾控中心当地时间7月5日公布的数据，变异新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株BA.5亚型已经成为全美导致新冠肺炎的主要毒株。数据显示，BA.5亚型感染病例目前占全美新增新冠病毒感染病例的53.6%，而BA.4亚型感染病例占16.5%，两者合计约占新冠病毒感染病例总数的70%。3、世卫组织：全球已报告超5300例猴痘病例 8天时间增长了56%当地时间7月5日，世界卫生组织（WHO）通报称，截至6月30日，全球多国已报告5322例经实验室确诊的猴痘病例，其中1人死亡。在日内瓦举行的简报会上，世卫组织发言人法蒂拉·沙伊布告诉记者，该确诊病例数比世卫组织6月22日通报的3413例增长了56%。4、国际能源署预期今年天然气消费小幅减少国际能源署7月5日发布的天然气市场最新季度报告显示，由于价格飙升以及俄罗斯天然气可能进一步减少供应，今年全球天然气消费将小幅减少，之后数年会缓慢增加。报告说，今年全球天然气使用量预期较2021年水平缩减0.5%；预计到2025年，全球天然气需求量仅比2021年增长1400亿立方米。5、俄罗斯即将对天然气巨头开征暴利税 总价值近200亿美元当地时间7月5日，俄罗斯议会批准对能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司征收临时暴利税。随着天然气价格飙升，此举将向俄罗斯国库注入相当于近200亿美元的资金。根据俄罗斯国家杜马周二通过的一项法案，俄气将在9月至11月期间额外支付1.25万亿卢布（约合197.2亿美元）的矿产开采税，即每月4160亿卢布。该法案仍然需要俄罗斯联邦委员会和总统的批准。6、挪威石油行业罢工结束当地时间7月5日晚，在挪威政府的介入下，挪威国家石油公司（Equinor）于当天凌晨开始的罢工结束。据报道，挪威政府通过强制工资委员会对罢工进行了干预，挪威强制性工资委员会是政府可以实施的一项强制性措施，以制止持续的劳资纠纷。7、英国政坛大地震？两位高官同日宣布辞职 矛头直指首相约翰逊随着两位高级官员宣布辞职，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊再次遭遇严重的政治打击。当地时间周二（7月5日），英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德和财政大臣里希·苏纳克相继宣布辞职，并且都将矛头指向了首相约翰逊。贾维德在辞职信中表示，在一系列丑闻之后，他对约翰逊为国家利益执政的能力失去了信心，并表示自己已无法再凭良心在约翰逊政府中任职。贾维德称，许多议员和公众都对约翰逊失去了信心。8、英国首相任命新的财政大臣和卫生大臣当地时间7月5日晚间，英国首相约翰逊宣布任命纳迪姆·扎哈维接替苏纳克为新任财政大臣。扎哈维此前为英国教育大臣。此外，史蒂夫·巴克利被任命为新任卫生大臣，接替贾维德。巴克利此前为约翰逊的幕僚长。9、土耳其称将推动黑海粮食运输通道谈判尽快取得成果当地时间7月5日，土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，土耳其将努力推动与俄罗斯和乌克兰就黑海粮食安全运输通道问题达成协议。埃尔多安说：“我们将努力加强与俄罗斯和乌克兰的谈判，争取在一周或十天内取得成果。”埃尔多安表示，乌克兰危机导致黑海地区运输粮食的通道中断，并引发粮食贸易问题。虽然土耳其并未因全球粮食短缺而遭遇困境，但世界上有些国家，特别是非洲国家正面临粮食危机。目前，土方正与联合国等有关各方一起，努力解决这一问题。俄乌局势1、乌克兰提交加入经合组织的申请乌克兰国家通讯社7月5日报道称，当天乌克兰总理什梅加尔向经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼提交了加入经合组织的申请。什梅加尔表示，乌克兰寻求尽快加入该组织，来自经合组织的支持对于乌克兰战后复苏和发展至关重要。2、英国首相约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通电话7月5日，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊与乌克兰总统泽连斯基进行了电话会晤，交流七国集团峰会和北约峰会后的最新进展。约翰逊表示，英国提供的最新军事装备，包括10种火炮装备及弹药，将在未来几天或几周时间内运抵乌克兰。泽连斯基向约翰逊告知了乌克兰国内目前的局势以及俄乌前线的最新进展。双方谈到一天前在瑞士卢加诺举行的乌克兰重建会议时，约翰逊表示欢迎乌克兰的重建计划，并期待英国主办明年的会议。公司新闻1、特斯拉公布太阳能增程拖车原型 可为电动皮卡续航综合Electrek等多家科技媒体报道，特斯拉公司在德国汉诺威举行的IdeenExpo展会上，首次展示了一款太阳能增程拖车原型。特斯拉称其可为旗下电动皮卡CyberTruck提供额外的续航里程。另外，这部拖车还配备了SpaceX的卫星互联网接收器，可以使车主在没有电信信号的地区接通互联网。2、剑指谷歌、苹果等科技巨头 欧洲议会通过两部里程碑法案当地时间7月5日，欧洲议会以压倒性多数分别通过了《数字服务法》和《数字市场法》。一些议员声称，这两部法律的通过具有里程碑意义，将能够约束谷歌、苹果等科技巨头的权力。据悉，这两部法律将于2024年1月前后生效实施。3、大众汽车将关闭位于俄罗斯的某个生产基地德国一家工会周二表示，大众汽车将关闭其在俄罗斯的两个生产基地之一，该公司根据与俄罗斯GAZ集团的合同在那里组装汽车。今年3月，大众汽车宣布，由于西方的制裁，其位于Kaluga和Nizhny Novgorod的工厂的生产将暂停，直到另行通知。4、加拿大将销毁1360万剂过期的阿斯利康新冠疫苗加拿大卫生部当地时间7月5日宣布，1360万剂阿斯利康新冠疫苗在春季过期，将被销毁。据悉，这批即将销毁的1360万剂疫苗占加拿大储存的阿斯利康新冠疫苗总数的一半以上。5、奈飞：《怪奇物语》创造了新的收视纪录当地时间周二，流媒体巨头奈飞表示，最新一季《怪奇物语》的总观看量已经超过了11.5亿小时。这意味着这部科幻剧已成为了奈飞史上最受欢迎的英语电视剧，奈飞平台上另一部播放时间超过10亿小时是去年火爆全球的韩剧《鱿鱼游戏》。6、桥水旗舰基金据称上半年收益率高达32%据媒体援引消息人士报道，得益于市场波动加剧，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金麾下旗舰基金Pure Alpha II在今年上半年实现了32%的高回报率。知情人士称，Pure Alpha II基金6月上涨了4.8%，将其自1991年成立以来的年化回报率提高到了11.4%。7、小摩唱空特斯拉：还要再跌超过40%一直以来，特斯拉都是备受华尔街关注，也争议最多的公司之一。在特斯拉第二季度的交付未达预期之后，尽管该公司在6月份的产量创下了历史最高纪录，但市场看空情绪依然弥漫。最新下调特斯拉目标价的投资银行是摩根大通。该行称，特斯拉股价可能较当前水平下跌超过40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862330,"gmtCreate":1656731767320,"gmtModify":1676535886307,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962510","repostId":"1156002058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156002058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656549444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156002058?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156002058","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may requi","content":"<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-30 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156002058","content_text":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation, forcing central bankers to tear up their playbook of the last 20 years.That was a key message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his European counterparts on Wednesday as they debated how to tackle persistent price pressures and slower growth.“I don’t think we are going to go back to that environment of low inflation,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.“There are forces that have been unleashed as a result of the pandemic, as a result of this massive geopolitical shock we are facing now that are going to change the picture and the landscape within which we operate,” she said during a 90-minute panel discussion moderated by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua.Her comments, alongside those of Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, mean a potential upheaval of monetary policy practice. For years, the critical foe facing central bankers was too-low inflation -- pushing them to deploy near-zero interest rates and massive bond purchases to lift their economies during recessions and feeble recoveries.The common enemy now is sizzling price pressures, which have surged to 40-year highs in the US as pandemic-tangled supply chains and Russia - Ukraine war sink predictions they will prove fleeting, forcing central bankers to hit the brakes: The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this month -- the largest increase since 1994 -- and signaled it could do the same in July.For Powell and his colleagues, a conclusion that underlying inflation is at risk of drifting higher and becoming unmoored from the Fed’s 2% target could spell an even-more aggressive policy pivot than suggested by their June forecast.That outlook -- which already shows the most hawkish Fed action since the 1990s, projects rates rising another 175 basis points this year and peaking between 3.75% and 4% in 2023. The following year, however, officials pencil in modest rate cuts as growth moderates and inflation turns back toward target.Policy makers “are saying there is going to be some pain and we may not get the soft landing we want, but having this high inflation and high inflation expectations is worse,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington. “This is a major shift” and may forestall rate cuts in 2024.De-GlobalizationThe Fed chief warned of a “re-division of the world into competing geopolitical and economic camps, and a reversal of globalization” that could result in lower productivity and growth.The risk of longer-lasting scarcity as the world reorders can already be seen. Inflation rates in the U.S, U.K, and the eurozone are far above their targets and the worry is that they could be persistently so as global trading and production patterns reconfigure.“It’s how you deal with a series of large supply shocks with no air gap between them, which of course feeds through into expectations,” Bailey said. “Put them all together, they’re not transitory in the traditional sense of the term.”For decades, advanced economies enjoyed a tailwind from globalization. In the terminology of central banking, inflation expectations were anchored and that allowed central banks to allow labor markets to run hotter. Access to off-shore labor also gutted worker bargaining power, further undercutting inflation but at a social cost as wages stagnated.“The last ten years were so far the height of the disinflationary forces that we faced,” Powell said. “That world seems to be gone now at least for the time being. We are living with different forces now and have to think about monetary policy in a very different way.”The Fed in 2020 reorientated its policy approach to tackle the problem of too-low inflation, adopting a strategy that committed to not reacting preemptively to forecasts of higher inflation as the labor market tightened and redefining the full-employment side of its mandate to be broad and inclusive.Powell acknowledged that the current environment raised questions about whether this approach was still fit for purpose.“If you want to know the lessons to be learned of the last ten years, look at our framework. Those were all based on a low inflation environment that we had. And now we are in this new world where it is quite different with higher inflation and many supply shocks and strong inflationary forces around the world.”Central bankers worry that unrelenting price increases could shift households and businesses into a state where expectations are based on more recent inflation experience.“To the extent that there are a series of shocks, it does become rational for people to pay more and more attention,” Powell said. “The clock is kind of running” on how long the Fed can count on low expectations before they move higher. “We will prevent that from happening.”In earlier remarks on Wednesday in Sintra, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said officials now face an asymmetric choice, warning that the error of assuming inflation expectations are well anchored when they aren’t is more costly than tightening policy too aggressively to make sure they stay that way.Jens Weidmann, former President of Germany’s Bundesbank, made a similar argument at a separate event earlier this week in Basel, cautioning against the gradualism that had been a hallmark of central banking until this year.“The more persistent the shock proves to be, the more the delay in monetary tightening increases the risk that companies, households and workers will start to expect that high inflation is here to stay,” Weidmannsaidon June 26.  “In order to prevent de-anchoring, the persistence of inflation should be overstated rather than understated, and a forceful monetary policy response is advisable precisely when uncertainty about it is particularly high.”Powell implicitly acknowledged the asymmetric choice -- conceding that officials could err and tip the economy into a recession, but arguing that was the lesser of two evils.“We are committed to and will succeed in getting inflation down to 2%,” he said. “The process is highly likely to involve some pain. But the worse pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076060107,"gmtCreate":1657761118309,"gmtModify":1676536057706,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076060107","repostId":"1166021735","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166021735","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1657681289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166021735?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-13 11:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Excessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166021735","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, the largest drop in nine years. The U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron’s pessimistic forecast. The electronics consumption boom since the pandemic is fading, and the chip supply shortage that has lasted for more than two years is turning into a surplus.</p><p>Data recently released by information technology research firm Gartner Inc. shows that global demand for personal computers declined sharply in the second quarter of this year.<b>Computer manufacturers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from the same period last year, the largest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner, said that the decline in demand since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Google's ChromeBook netbook.</p><p>Data from another organization, International Data Corp., shows that global equipment shipments fell by about 15.3% year-on-year in the second quarter.</p><p>IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani said that concerns about a recession continue to grow, weakening demand across various sectors. However, he also pointed out that despite the recent decline in demand, overall shipments are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>Both Gartner and IDC stated that the world's top three personal computer vendors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>Gartner data shows that demand for personal computers in the United States fell by 17.5%, mainly due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Is a winter approaching for the chip industry?</b></p><p>During the pandemic, consumption of electronic devices surged to accommodate remote work and education, as well as entertainment needs during home isolation. However, in recent months, there have been increasing signs that this trend is changing.</p><p>In May of this year, several personal computer manufacturers, including HP and Dell, warned that consumer demand for personal computers was weakening, especially for low-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become “very chaotic,” and the company would seek to adjust its spending and investments to accommodate this reality. In June of this year, Intel temporarily froze hiring in its personal computer chip division and took other austerity measures.</p><p>At the end of last month, memory chip manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The release of fourth-quarter earnings guidance fell far short of expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets: computers and smartphones. Although Micron executives described future demand as \"somewhat weakened,\" the specific figures suggest that demand in the chip industry may have already experienced a precipitous decline.</p><p>As the U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warned that...<b>Following Microelectronics' pessimistic forecast, more bad news will come.</b></p><p>As the market environment deteriorated, a wave of semiconductor order cuts spread. However, as Wall Street Insights previously mentioned,<b>Although the high growth in the semiconductor market over the past two years has subsided, structural opportunities still exist across the industry.</b></p><p>Amid shrinking demand for traditional electronic products, the field of semiconductors for new energy vehicles still has continued growth momentum. Comparing the situation with semiconductor chip manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at a historical low, which also verifies the structural performance of the automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, senior analyst at research firm Baird Semiconductors, also said that major chip suppliers for consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone makers, are essentially doomed, while companies that provide automotive and data center chips will continue to perform well.</p><p>However, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon holds a different view on the prospects for automotive chips.<b>He pointed out that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and are continuing to do so. The situation becomes even more real when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Excessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExcessive hype! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered as well.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-13 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, the largest drop in nine years. The U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron’s pessimistic forecast. The electronics consumption boom since the pandemic is fading, and the chip supply shortage that has lasted for more than two years is turning into a surplus.</p><p>Data recently released by information technology research firm Gartner Inc. shows that global demand for personal computers declined sharply in the second quarter of this year.<b>Computer manufacturers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from the same period last year, the largest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>Mikako Kitagawa, research director at Gartner, said that the decline in demand since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Google's ChromeBook netbook.</p><p>Data from another organization, International Data Corp., shows that global equipment shipments fell by about 15.3% year-on-year in the second quarter.</p><p>IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani said that concerns about a recession continue to grow, weakening demand across various sectors. However, he also pointed out that despite the recent decline in demand, overall shipments are still higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>Both Gartner and IDC stated that the world's top three personal computer vendors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>Gartner data shows that demand for personal computers in the United States fell by 17.5%, mainly due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Is a winter approaching for the chip industry?</b></p><p>During the pandemic, consumption of electronic devices surged to accommodate remote work and education, as well as entertainment needs during home isolation. However, in recent months, there have been increasing signs that this trend is changing.</p><p>In May of this year, several personal computer manufacturers, including HP and Dell, warned that consumer demand for personal computers was weakening, especially for low-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become “very chaotic,” and the company would seek to adjust its spending and investments to accommodate this reality. In June of this year, Intel temporarily froze hiring in its personal computer chip division and took other austerity measures.</p><p>At the end of last month, memory chip manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The release of fourth-quarter earnings guidance fell far short of expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets: computers and smartphones. Although Micron executives described future demand as \"somewhat weakened,\" the specific figures suggest that demand in the chip industry may have already experienced a precipitous decline.</p><p>As the U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warned that...<b>Following Microelectronics' pessimistic forecast, more bad news will come.</b></p><p>As the market environment deteriorated, a wave of semiconductor order cuts spread. However, as Wall Street Insights previously mentioned,<b>Although the high growth in the semiconductor market over the past two years has subsided, structural opportunities still exist across the industry.</b></p><p>Amid shrinking demand for traditional electronic products, the field of semiconductors for new energy vehicles still has continued growth momentum. Comparing the situation with semiconductor chip manufacturers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at a historical low, which also verifies the structural performance of the automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, senior analyst at research firm Baird Semiconductors, also said that major chip suppliers for consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone makers, are essentially doomed, while companies that provide automotive and data center chips will continue to perform well.</p><p>However, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon holds a different view on the prospects for automotive chips.<b>He pointed out that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and are continuing to do so. The situation becomes even more real when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","PC":"Premium Catering (Holdings) Ltd."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166021735","content_text":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供应短缺正转向过剩。信息科技研究公司Gartner Inc.近日公布的数据显示，今年第二季度全球个人电脑需求大幅下降，电脑制造商在4月至6月间的出货量为7200万台，较去年同期下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。Gartner 研究主管Mikako Kitagawa表示，由于俄乌冲突导致的持续地缘政治不稳定、支出方面的通胀压力以及对谷歌网络笔记本ChromeBook的需求急剧下降，自第一季度以来出现的需求下降在第二季度加速。另一家机构International Data Corp.的数据显示，第二季度全球设备出货量同比下降了约15.3%。IDC研究经理Jitesh Ubrani表示，对衰退的担忧继续加剧，削弱了各个领域的需求。不过，他也指出，尽管最近需求有所下降，但总体出货量仍高于疫情前水平。Gartner和IDC均表示，全球前三大个人电脑供应商联想集团、惠普和戴尔第二季度的发货量均有所下降。Gartner的数据显示，美国个人电脑需求下降了17.5%，主要原因是ChromeBook出货量下降了50%。芯片业寒冬将至？疫情期间，为了适应远程工作和远程教育，以及宅家隔离的娱乐需求，对电子设备的消费大增，但近几个月来，越来越多迹象显示，这种趋势发生了变化。今年5月，惠普和戴尔等几家个人电脑制造商警告称，消费者对个人电脑的需求正在减弱，尤其是对低价产品的需求。英特尔首席财务官David Zinsner今年6月表示，今年下半年的前景变得“非常混乱”，该公司将寻求调整支出和投资以适应这一现实。今年6月，英特尔暂时冻结了其个人电脑芯片部门的招聘，并采取了其他紧缩措施。上个月底，内存芯片制造商美光科技发布第四季度业绩指引远低于预期，反映出电脑和智能手机两个关键市场的放缓。虽然美光高管在描述未来需求时所用的表述是“有所减弱”，但从具体数字来看，芯片行业的需求或已出现了断崖式下降。随着美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，TechInsights芯片分析师Dan Hutcheson警告称，继美光发布悲观预测后，还会有更多坏消息传来。市场环境恶化，半导体砍单潮也随之蔓延。不过，华尔街见闻此前提及，虽然半导体市场过去两年的高增不再，但整个行业内仍存在结构化的机会。在传统电子产品需求萎缩之际，新能源车用半导体领域仍有继续增长的动力。对比半导体芯片厂的情况，意法半导体、恩智浦、德州仪器等车用半导体公司的存货周转天数仍处于历史低位，这也同样验证了车用半导体领域的结构化表现。研究公司Baird半导体高级分析师Tristan Gerra也表示，消费电子产品制造商，尤其是低端智能手机制造商的芯片大供应商基本上注定“难逃厄运”，而提供汽车和数据中心芯片的公司将继续表现优秀。但Bernstein分析师Stacy Rasgon对汽车芯片的前景持有不同观点。他指出，汽车制造商订购的芯片远远超过了他们的需求，而且还在继续这样做。当汽车制造商停止购买时，情况就会变得更加真实。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"PC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071182273,"gmtCreate":1657501342392,"gmtModify":1676536014330,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071182273","repostId":"2250061276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518026,"gmtCreate":1656497103465,"gmtModify":1676535840654,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518026","repostId":"2247335031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2247335031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656515616,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2247335031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 23:13","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247335031","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfoli","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba&#39;s stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don&#39;t think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.</p><p>After analyzing Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today&#39;s note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba&#39;s stock at current levels. Here we go.</p><h2>5 Reasons To Buy Alibaba</h2><ul><li><b>Solid Business Fundamentals</b></li></ul><p>In Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba&#39;s gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba&#39;s revenues and margins will start expanding once again.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f832b08e66d361bbb5c51f7355f977\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>In recent quarters, Alibaba&#39;s margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year&#39;s burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b8f7d033c114324988b2dc1f3407c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>With roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba&#39;s management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a65cd79cb85db43d377e4030d3f406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>According to Alibaba&#39;s Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -</p><blockquote>The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba&#39;s long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba&#39;s stock price does not fairly reflect the company&#39;s value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.</blockquote><p>I agree with Toby. Let&#39;s find out why.</p><ul><li><b>Dirt Cheap Valuations</b></li></ul><p>When I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba&#39;s stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97154790c41df6813966a9c0226a5d43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t think Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba&#39;s valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).</p><ul><li><b>Improving Quant Factor Grades</b></li></ul><p>After the recent run-up in Alibaba&#39;s stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from &#34;C-&#34; to &#34;B+&#34;. I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba&#39;s momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba&#39;s factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7da606c3f053f0884d0de15d76984d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating</p><p>With profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba&#39;s stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of &#39;Hold&#39; [3.30] on SA&#39;s Quant Rating System.</p><ul><li><b>A Trend Reversal On The Technical Charts</b></li></ul><p>Alibaba&#39;s technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don&#39;t expect Alibaba&#39;s stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da230de0660c27b79cb293f0e3a75813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.</blockquote><p>Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).</p><ul><li><b>Signs of regulatory policy relaxation</b></li></ul><p>Over the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.</p><h2>2 Reasons To Sell Alibaba</h2><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don&#39;t think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.</p><ul><li><b>Poor Macroeconomic Environment</b></li></ul><p>Like most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba&#39;s sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba&#39;s free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.</p><ul><li><b>Potential Delisting in the US</b></li></ul><p>While Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba&#39;s ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].</p><h2>Bottom Line</h2><p>Even after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba&#39;s stock a &#34;Buy&#34;. As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2247335031","content_text":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba's stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don't think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.After analyzing Alibaba's Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today's note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba's stock at current levels. Here we go.5 Reasons To Buy AlibabaSolid Business FundamentalsIn Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba's fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba's gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba's revenues and margins will start expanding once again.YChartsIn recent quarters, Alibaba's margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year's burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.YChartsWith roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba's management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).YChartsAccording to Alibaba's Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba's long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba's stock price does not fairly reflect the company's value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.I agree with Toby. Let's find out why.Dirt Cheap ValuationsWhen I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba's stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).YChartsHonestly, I don't think Alibaba's Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba's valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).Improving Quant Factor GradesAfter the recent run-up in Alibaba's stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from \"C-\" to \"B+\". I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba's momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba's factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.Seeking Alpha Quant RatingWith profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba's stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba's fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of 'Hold' [3.30] on SA's Quant Rating System.A Trend Reversal On The Technical ChartsAlibaba's technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don't expect Alibaba's stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).Signs of regulatory policy relaxationOver the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.2 Reasons To Sell AlibabaConsidering Alibaba's healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don't think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.Poor Macroeconomic EnvironmentLike most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba's sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba's free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.Potential Delisting in the USWhile Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba's ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].Bottom LineEven after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba's stock a \"Buy\". As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.Key Takeaway: I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075976867,"gmtCreate":1658139094159,"gmtModify":1676536111075,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075976867","repostId":"1149776860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073865314,"gmtCreate":1657327763138,"gmtModify":1676535991105,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118888674291832","idStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073865314","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did the Japanese economy suffer three decades of \"loss\" behind Abe's assassination?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been shot shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a speech in Nara on the morning of the 8th local time. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance, and he currently has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the USD/JPY decline widened to 0.47% at 135.37, while the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe was assassinated? This may be related to the \"Abenomics\" that he promoted during his term. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, which led to the accelerated depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen's continued decline has become more pronounced. On June 13, the yen fell below 135 yen to the dollar, hitting a new low in about 24 years. In the year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly against the US dollar by more than 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The continued sharp decline of traditional safe-haven currencies has led to a significant sell-off of Japanese bonds and yen assets.</p><p>Although Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus program to support the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>However, for ordinary Japanese people, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a major importer, Japan is 88% dependent on foreign energy and only 37% self-sufficient in food. The rise in commodity prices caused by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of significant easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the collapse of the Japanese economy in 1990.</p><p>While the housing market has been eased and prices have been raised, residents' disposable income has not been eased, leaving people somewhat lacking in confidence. After experiencing a \"lost decade,\" a \"lost twenty years,\" and a \"lost thirty years,\" Japan's lost eyes are heading towards the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the current sharp depreciation of the yen is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately proposed a \"boosting the economy\" strategy, which was hyped up by the media as \"Abenomics\".</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a combination of policies to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE), proactive fiscal policy, and economic structural reforms. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japan's history, with the central bank purchasing 7.5 trillion yen worth of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Secondly, the expansionary fiscal policy exceeded the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, it encompasses a package of growth strategies, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment, and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address Japan's economic downturn since the 1990s. So how effective has the implementation been?</p><p>An analysis by Global Macroeconomic Speculation points out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment in which Japanese financiers and politicians broke down prejudices and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>The article also points out that \"Abenomics\" performed poorly from 2016 to 2020. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomic's goals were achieved, especially inflation expectations, the yen exchange rate, real interest rates, and stock prices. However, potential output growth during the same period was not good, proving that structural reforms were not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are evident to all, but there are also some serious problems. The most serious problem is the difficult financial situation, and this situation has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, associate researcher at the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, believes that looking solely at Japan's GDP would lead to misunderstandings and the belief that Abenomics has not been very successful. However, overall, the Japanese economy is on an upward trend. For example, wages in Japan have increased and the profit growth rate of large corporations is good, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Loss\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>For more than a decade before the collapse of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was a \"miracle worker.\"</p><p>Starting with early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textiles to accumulate capital, and later with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanding investment and introducing advanced foreign technologies, the country quickly rebuilt its industrial system from the post-war ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympics had become an important milestone in connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel from large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs for the opening of the Olympics, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete development stage from \"trading shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan exported half of its steel to the United States, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second-largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution, with automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals completely dominating the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, and Toshiba emerging as giants.</p><p>During the years of trade deficits between the United States and Japan, industry giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy at one point.</p><p>Faced with the predicament of being overwhelmed by Japanese goods, the United States, disregarding face, launched a trade war that seems familiar to Chinese people today—</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese automobiles sold worldwide began to be subject to heavy tariffs and export quotas restricted by the United States.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions, citing \"dumping practices\" by Japan. A lower export price limit was set for Japanese semiconductors, and a 100% punitive tariff was imposed on Japanese chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US lawmakers live-stream smashing Japanese products</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese companies were arrested on charges of \"industrial espionage,\" and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property from the United States. Japan was also required to increase imports of U.S. agricultural products, eliminate trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, impose voluntary export restrictions on industries such as textiles, steel, televisions, and machine tools, while simultaneously relocating factories and upgrading industries.</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting its industrial policies through state support, the United States enacted a new trade law in 1988, invoking the \"Super 301\" clause—openly legislating to interfere in Japan's industrial and trade policies and forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-U.S. Structural Agreement,\" consulting on economic policies, systems, and corporate behavior, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in areas such as its circulation system and business practices: for example, regarding housing as a strategic industry and further opening up its circulation system. Further open up the domestic market and restructure the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the United States Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were concessions from the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached in 1985 by the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Following Black Monday in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen per dollar, an increase of as much as 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality companies have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the currency crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"provide money\" so that companies can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In reality, due to the excessively long return cycle for real industries, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rates was not invested in the real economy. The ample liquidity in the money market began to flow into the housing, stock, and luxury goods markets in large quantities as the yen appreciated sharply after the Plaza Accords.</p><p>Starting in 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity was known as the \"Heisei boom.\" At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock index closed at 13,083 points, and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by a cumulative 197.45%, and the total market capitalization of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>Land prices in Tokyo skyrocketed, with the land price of the Japanese Emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeding the estimated land value of the entire country. In the Ginza area, a 10,000 yen bill thrown on the ground cannot buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping up watch stores, jewelry stores, and wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies are counting their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>A large number of stock index short options, which were completely at odds with economic reality, erupted when the bubble inflated to its peak.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, with the stock market plummeting by 63.24%, marking the largest drop in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the housing market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt companies emerged one after another, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the entire country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has left countless ordinary people who did not have time to escape \"trapped\" in various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has transferred the wealth of the whole society to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a prolonged slump.</p><p>The Nikkei average fell by more than 82% from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989, to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. For the next four years, the Nikkei average remained hovering around 10,000 points.</p><p>Starting in the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of the Japanese economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem remains unsolved to this day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in the past thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still showed no signs of improvement, the media began to refer to the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In reality, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Starting from the all-time high closing point of the Nikkei 225 index at 38,957, the index continued to decline, falling below 10,000 points several times until it stopped falling in 2017.</p><p>On July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord,\" which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of Japan's bubble economy, which triggered the Great Depression.</p><p>However, the criticisms of the Plaza Accords are not consistent in the analysis of this Great Depression. Former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance Toyoo Gyoten even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Between 1985 and 1990, thanks to overseas investment driven by a strong yen, Japan's net overseas assets rose from over $1 trillion to over $3 trillion, which is what is known as \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"—</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, there has been a huge increase in production and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, many Japanese companies have had to turn their attention overseas, which has led to a rapid outflow of Japanese capital.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly tense Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow—a strong yen makes it easier for Japanese companies to invest in and acquire overseas companies, while building factories overseas can circumvent US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies conducted a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion—including the Spider-Man rights that Marvel has yet to reclaim.</p><p>The Japanese even had the ambition to buy the United States into \"Japan's 41st prefecture.\" Why does the city look so much like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In his book \"Anger Across the Pacific,\" Japanese scholar Kan Ito wrote that some Japanese believe Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead its people to \"end the era of America.\"</p><p>However, these properties belong to giant corporations, conglomerates, speculators, and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, the Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas subsidiaries had increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, the per capita purchasing power in Japan in 2020 was only US$39,000, an increase of only 4% compared to 1990.</p><p><b>1. Income that remains unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, Japanese investment activities came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks went bankrupt, factories closed down, and mortgages became a disaster, forcing banks rife with non-performing assets to merge and restructure. The sharply rising production costs caused a large number of businesses to go bankrupt, and ordinary people suffered the most—they were laid off in the wave of bankruptcies, their life savings evaporated in the bubble crisis, and they were burdened with heavy mortgages.</p><p>After the collapse of the lifetime employment system and seniority system, the \"corporate slave\" culture, which worked desperately to keep its job, did not originate from Japan's bubble crisis, but it solidified afterward—accepting the exploitation of competition and the gears that prioritize production efficiency became the most helpless choice for Japanese workers.</p><p>However, the tide of social development propelled the Japanese forward, but failed to bring them the rewards they deserved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Labor Statistics Survey\" released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that the average monthly salary in Japan in 2020 was 318,299 yen, equivalent to about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, marking the largest drop in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was around 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. At the exchange rate at the time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>Average annual income, which has remained stagnant for 30 consecutive years, has become Japan's most intense \"birth control pill\".</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan ranked 11th in the world in terms of total population, marking the first time it had fallen out of the top ten since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and around 2008 it began to fall into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan has 36.4 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Japan's declining birthrate and aging population have led to a severe labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth, resulting in a continued slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rates of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity changed basically in sync with economic trends. While the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6% and the labor productivity growth rate peaked at 8.4% from 1961 to 1975, the average real GDP growth rate also remained at a high level of 7.7%; from 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained low growth rates of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%.\" From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of the working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to -0.8% and 1.1%, respectively, while the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to -4.4%.</p><p>With the working population declining and tax revenue decreasing, the need for pension and other expenses is expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people relying on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% annually. By 2017, taxpayers' pension contributions had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, becoming a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and healthcare) fell from number one in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in expected income has led to a negative attitude towards life, low material desires, and a lack of motivation among young Japanese people, resulting in the emergence of a \"secluded generation\". According to the definition of Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, secluded people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and have almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to data from the Cabinet Office's \"Living Conditions Survey\", the number of secluded people aged 15-39 and 40-64 reached 541,000 and 613,000 respectively.</p><p>The consumption and housing demand of the elderly is far lower than that of young people, and young people severely lack the desire to consume, making it difficult for total consumption to increase significantly, and Japan has fallen into a \"low-desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifetime QE, but consistently weak.</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's GDP fell below the \"50s\" with a total GDP of $4,937.4 billion, but it still ranks as the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Europe, which doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>In reality, Japan's GDP had already reached $5.55 trillion in 1995, when the ratio of Japan's GDP to the United States' GDP was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio increased to 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared to its past glory, Japan today is indeed in some difficulty.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also among the highest in the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio among countries was 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The massive amount of debt stems from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial sector.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan first began implementing a zero-interest-rate and quantitative easing policy, which regulates economic activity by controlling the money supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved significant growth. Meanwhile, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been declining steadily, with the 10-year Treasury Bond rate even falling to negative numbers in 2016.</p><p>Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase volume of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan held more than 80% of equity ETFs and more than 5% of the total market capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened from around 8,000 points in 2012, even breaking through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a mirage of bubble prosperity, because the massive amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither raised inflation nor boosted economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, apart from core basic raw materials, which still maintain a barrier advantage, Japan's other industries are almost stagnating. The markets in the automotive, shipbuilding, machine tool, and electronics industries are being divided up by countries such as the United States, China, and South Korea, with little achievement in emerging industries.</p><p>Currently, Japan has only 6 unicorn companies, far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all of which are valued at less than $2 billion.</p><p>Meanwhile, Japan's debt expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, consisting of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, equivalent to about 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, while central banks in the US, UK, and Europe have all begun to tighten their stance, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Counter-market\" easing, unlimited money printing, and consecutive declines in the yen</b></p><p>The yen's continuous decline began in March.</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in March, which signaled that it would further increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet, both the UK and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. However, the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining its quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous fixed-price market operation\" between March 29 and 31 to curb interest rate increases, which involves purchasing an unlimited amount of government bonds from private financial institutions at a specified interest rate.</p><p>On that day, the yen plummeted 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced unlimited purchases of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield cap on the 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, further driving the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has consistently used a loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations. Especially now that the new fiscal year has just begun, the Bank of Japan is less likely to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In reality, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe administration took office and introduced unlimited stimulus policies, total exports have declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The recent surge in global crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the depreciation of the yen, has increased costs for Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. Meanwhile, according to data from the OECD's \"Value-Added Trade Statistics,\" Japan's domestic added value has fallen from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Japan's related high-value-added products and services to offset their ever-increasing production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiaries were domestic Japanese speculators. With the Federal Reserve's significant intervention, US Treasury yields continued to soar, and the interest rate differential between the US, Japan, and Treasury Bond became increasingly large. As a result, domestic speculators began to short the yen on a large scale, using the yen to buy US Treasury bonds for arbitrage.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to increased living costs and weakened consumer power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be about to be postponed again. The depreciation of the yen, which the Bank of Japan has deemed \"beneficial to the economy,\" has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years. Instead, it has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from large-scale monetary easing policies for more than a decade.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then-central bank governor Yasushi Mie No warned the government: A country must not survive by inflating economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>Shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, significantly increasing loan interest rates and proactively bursting the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it is often regarded by later generations as a decisive act of \"cutting off one's own arm\".</p><p>However, the car in front has overturned, and the rest is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862282,"gmtCreate":1656731800646,"gmtModify":1676535886315,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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