DavidMarlin
DavidMarlin
NYC Equity Trader | SF Quant HF Adviser | CEO of Marlin Capital | Not Investment Advice.
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Only 22% of firms say they’re using AI in their regular business functions. We’re very early. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$

$1.3T Just Got Pulled Forward

🔥 The most important number from tonight’s $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings call wasn’t revenue. It was CapEx. CFO Colette Kress said top-five hyperscaler CapEx could hit nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027. That’s the key takeaway. The market had been looking for $1.3T in 2028. Nvidia just pulled that level forward to 2027. In other words, the AI infrastructure spending cycle isn’t slowing down. It’s accelerating. And that has a much broader read-through: 🔹 $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ — the semiconductor complex 🔹 $Micron Technology(MU)$ — memory and HBM 🔹 $Lumentum(LITE)$ — optical connectivity 🔹
$1.3T Just Got Pulled Forward
YTD, Goldman $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ ’s Momentum bucket has had 24 distinct 1-day selloffs of more than -5%. That is already more than the prior 5 years COMBINED. “Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established." - George Soros

Liquidity Is Driving the S&P 500

It’s not just about AI hype. Liquidity remains a major driver of the market. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been closely tracking Global M2 with an approximately 11-week lag, and that relationship is currently pointing toward a potential 8,200 level for the index. At the same time, the AI infrastructure boom is starting to show up in corporate earnings. Massive spending on data centers, chips, power, networking and related infrastructure is creating a broad earnings tailwind across the market. The combination of expanding liquidity and accelerating AI-driven earnings could provide the S&P 500 with another leg higher.
Liquidity Is Driving the S&P 500

Goldman Just Mapped the Entire AI Optics Supply Chain

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ just dropped a map of the entire AI optics supply chain. Goldman just mapped the AI optics supply chain from chips to testing. The list covers the major publicly traded players across nearly every layer of the ecosystem. Chip / xPU Design:$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Cisco(CSCO)$ MediaTek Photonic & Electronic ICs:$Lumentum(LITE)$
Goldman Just Mapped the Entire AI Optics Supply Chain
The market has been carried by everything except AI for the last 3 months. 3M returns… 👇 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ex-AI: +8.4% Broad AI: 0%, despite being 4x more volatile 🐯🪙 Share your choice and reasoning in the comments — thoughtful views may receive Tiger Coins! Good allocation isn’t just about investing — it’s also about keeping everyday life organised. Just like a well-balanced portfolio, the right organisation can make business trips, travel and workouts a little easier. The new Tiger Toiletry Bag features a dual-layer dry & wet separation design with plenty of space to keep your essentials neatly organised, wherever you go. Redeem the new Tiger Toiletry Bag now in Tiger Coin Mall.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ realized vol dispersion is at levels last seen during the Dot Com Bubble unwind. In other words, individual stocks are diverging wildly from the index itself.
Despite a historic Momentum crash in July… Momentum crowding is STILL in the 93rd %ile versus history. 🤯 $iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF(MTUM)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$

The Chips Are Down

We called the $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ breakdown weeks ago, and it just hit my first downside target. Here's what comes next... When it rains, it pours. The selling pressure is starting to accelerate this week. It started overnight in Korea, where the KOSPI crashed -11% in a single session. Samsung fell -13% and SK Hynix fell -15%. Then the US opened, and it was another bloodbath for AI stocks today. Semis fell -4.5% on the day. At its lows, SOX traded down to $10,799. That was my first downside target. 🎯🎯🎯 I called for a SOX move down to $10.6k-$10.8k ~3 weeks ago (7/7) in “Chip Wrecked” (-11% ago). Today, we tagged my $10.8k target (at lows). Week after week, we have given it to you straight. We told you last Tuesday’s bounce was N
The Chips Are Down

If the S&P Rolls Over, Chips Could Feel More Pain

We are seeing what a crowded trade unwind looks like. Semi ETF inflows went parabolic this year with $46B coming in <7 months YTD. This is more than the previous 9 years COMBINED. Now, it’s unwinding. $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ “Trump has to do something soon” Trump doesn’t care about AI Bubble stocks getting torched. The SPX is down ~2.4%. CTAs haven’t even started selling yet. If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ starts to roll over, this will become another big headwind for stoc
If the S&P Rolls Over, Chips Could Feel More Pain
Tuesday was the 11th time since 1999 that High Beta Momentum gained 7%+ while above its 200 DMA. 4 of those 11 have happened in 2026‼️ 3 came in early 2021. 3 came in early 2000.
Hedge funds have unloaded Tech stocks at a record pace over the past 8 weeks. In cumulative % terms, the recent HF Tech selling is the largest on record. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$

SOX Flashes a Rare Dot-Com Era Warning

$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ hit ~80% above its 200 day MA in early June. A number surpassed only once in history. At the peak of the Dot Com Bubble in early 2000. On that note, SOX has moved +/- 3% in 15 of the last 30 trading days. Last happened in 2000. "Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established." - George Soros
SOX Flashes a Rare Dot-Com Era Warning

BlackRock's Top 30 AI Stocks for 2026 🚀

BlackRock just ranked the 30 most important AI companies in the world. 👀 Surprisingly, $Micron Technology(MU)$ takes the #1 spot, ahead of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . Here's the full ranking: 🥇 Top 10 $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $Oracle(ORC
BlackRock's Top 30 AI Stocks for 2026 🚀
We are about to enter the best seasonal period of the year for US stocks. Historically, the 1H of July is the best 2-week stretch on the calendar. The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$has finished positive in 17 of the last 18 July’s.

Goldman Sachs Maps the Humanoid Robot Supply Chain: From $TSLA to $NVDA

Goldman $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ just dropped a map of the entire humanoid robot supply chain. Here are the publicly traded tickers they named 👇 Humanoid Robot Makers $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ $Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ $UBTECH ROBOTICS CORP LTD(UBTRF)$ $GAC HOLDCO INC.(GACWF)$ $ESTUN(02715)$ $TSLA Foundation Models $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(
Goldman Sachs Maps the Humanoid Robot Supply Chain: From $TSLA to $NVDA

$SPX Earnings Upgrades Are Surging at a Historic Pace

We are witnessing 1 of the strongest earnings upgrade cycles EVER. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ forward estimates are being revised higher at the fastest rate in the last 16+ years. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Many people seem to think a market top is imminent. But history says things c
$SPX Earnings Upgrades Are Surging at a Historic Pace

$SPX is currently ~4% CHEAPER than it was at the start of 2026

On a forward earnings basis, the $SPX $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is currently ~4% CHEAPER than it was at the start of 2026. This rally has been entirely driven by earnings growth. Multiples haven’t even started expanding yet. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold! Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off
$SPX is currently ~4% CHEAPER than it was at the start of 2026

Earnings Over Headlines: Why the Indices Keep Recovering

Despite the Macro volatility this year, the earnings picture keeps getting stronger. EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 are both +5% higher today than they were before the Iran War even started. If you were wondering why the indices are back at highs already, this is your answer. 👇
Earnings Over Headlines: Why the Indices Keep Recovering

$SPX EPS Surges While $IGV $CRM $NOW See Historic Rotation Out of Software

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ EPS estimates are being revised UP at a pace we have not seen in the last decade. Typically at this point in the year, consensus EPS estimates are being revised downward. Not this year. Now that the Macro headwinds are clearing, the earnings picture underneath is super strong. Software vs. Semis just posted its biggest 1-day move lower on record. The rotation out of Software is truly historic. $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ $Cloudfla
$SPX EPS Surges While $IGV $CRM $NOW See Historic Rotation Out of Software

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