Only 8 of the 59 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies that have reported in Q1 so far have issued forward guidance (13%, vs. ~40% avg).0 have guided above consensus.Not good.ImageThis is true. So far, thru Q1 Earnings Season:✅ Fewest companies issuing guidance since COVID (13% vs 40% avg)✅ Worst guidance ratio since COVID ✅ Company mentions of worse” or “weaker” at 2008 GFC levels.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.💰Join the TB Contra Tele

We have had 11 $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ spikes above 45 since 1997.4 months later, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was higher 10/11 times (ex. 2008) with an average gain of +6.4%.ImageThe relative valuation of Big Tech vs. the S&P 500 is now at 10 year lows. This feels very extreme. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ just had its largest 1-day decline EVER. Here are the other 6 largest 1D VIX drops along with what the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ did next. 👇ImageThe $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ saw its biggest daily inflow in 4+ years yesterday at over +$4B.Definitely a lot of Hedge Fund short covering and overall repositioning $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Fi

In every recession since 1970, we have also had a corresponding earnings recession.The median recessionary EPS decline is -15%. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Tra

The speed of this positioning unwind has been truly remarkable. We have gotten from ATH long positioning to extremely underweight in a little over ~2 months. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here

Here’s the previous 10 times the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was down -17.5% or more. 👇👇👇The highest SPX P/E Ratio for a bottom was 16x in 1998.Our current P/E Ratio is 18.6x. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ImageRelevant now as we’ve come from a much higher P/E peak than usual: The SPX has only sustained a P/E multiple higher than the current mark (22.5x) twice in history: 1.) The Dot Com Bubble 2.) The Covid-QE BubbleImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out m

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index has been in “Extreme Fear” for the entirety of this -17% $S&P 500(.SPX)$ correction. It was at Extreme Fear 1M ago (11), and the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is down -15% over the last month. This is not a good indicator of much. Positioning tells you all you need to know about sentiment (fear and greed).ImageWe are currently 32 trading days into this SPX correction. The median non-recessionary SPX correction lasts 60 days. The median recessionary SPX correction lasts 282 days, almost 5x as long.ImageRetail investors bought $4.7 bln in stocks on thursday, largest level over the past decadeNo panic!Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming

The Money Flow data from March is WILD. Hedge Funds: sold stocks at a record pace. Retail Investors: bought stocks at a record pace. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ImageThe odds of a recession are now up to 46%, according to Polymarket. Recessionary $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corrections typically reach Bear Market territory (-20%), with a median decline of -23%.ImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy ac

We are currently 29 trading days into this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ correction.The median non-recessionary SPX correction lasts 60 days.The median recessionary SPX correction lasts 282 days, almost 5x as long.Image Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Other helpful links:💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉How to open a CBA.

Hedge Funds have de-risked at a record pace over the last 2 months.This continued last week with the largest net selling in Tech in 6 months and 2nd largest in the past 5 yrs.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ImageThis is a stark contrast to retail, who bought the dip throughout Q1 👇👇ImageOpen a Cash Boost Account (CBA) today and unlock a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000!Enjoy the benefits of upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading a

Pensions are modeled to buy +$41B of US equities this week for quarter-end rebalance. This is the 5th highest quarter-end buy estimate on record. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image

The current $S&P 500(.SPX)$ downturn is more closely following the path of a Bear Market than an average market correction. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

CTAs are short -$34B of US equities and long $52B of European equities. This is the largest spread we have EVER seen. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF(FEZ)$ ImageI just said that on Tuesday：CTAs essentially entered this week max short, which looks to be turning into a massive tailwind now. GS estimates the largest 1M CTA buying demand since Nov 2023. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished +5.7% in Nov ‘23.Image

CTAs essentially entered this week max short, which looks to be turning into a massive tailwind now. GS estimates the largest 1M CTA buying demand since Nov 2023. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished +5.7% in Nov ‘23.Image

We have gone ATH total long positioning to now underweight in less than 2 months. Positioning can always go lower, but this has already been 1 of the quickest washouts ever recorded. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

We have just witnessed 1 of the sharpest drops in investor sentiment EVER.Other such drops have historically been a bullish signal for near term $S&P 500(.SPX)$ returns.Image70-80% hit rate after similar declines in investor sentiment (only a few in history)Image

Hedge Funds have been absolutely unloading for the last month +.The liquidations have accelerated over the past couple sessions with their largest 2-day de-grossing in 4+ years. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Image