Here's my 1-page mental model for understanding the semiconductor ecosystem👇 Covering: - design software $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ $Synopsys(SNPS)$ - equipment $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Lam Research(LRCX)$ $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ - chip designers $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ - chip manufacturers $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ $Mi

Portfolio at the end of December and the end of 2023. No new positions.2023 performance: 31.1%5yr FCF per share CAGR = 20% FCF ROC = 32% FCF Margin = 34% FCF Yield = 3.34% Share price linearity (5yr) = 0.87ImageThere were no outright sales or purchases. The top contributors to performance were $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ . $Microsoft(MSFT)$ was the only detractor from performance.My best performing stocks this year have been $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Fair Isaac(FICO)$

10 of the 12 companies I invest in are listed in the US.But only 44% of their revenue is derived from North America. $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ has the most US exposure, while $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ has the least (27% China, 24% Taiwan, 18% Korea).You can be globally diversified just by owning US stocks. $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $Constellation Software, Inc.(CONSF)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$

Three reasons why very few companies are capable of sustaining a high return on capital over a long period of time:1. Economic downturns - few companies are resilient to these due to exposure to commodities and interest rates (eg banks and energy companies).2. Reinvestment opportunities - companies lacking reinvestment oppportunities typically pay out a large chunk of their earnings as a dividend, rather than reinvest (eg consumer staples).3. Pricing power - few companies are capable of raising prices without losing sales to their competition.ImageValuation reflects both future growth and current multiple. I personally focus on future growth. I see a lot of value currently in $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ and $Fo

Fundsmith’s factsheet says no sales or purchases this month.We know from their 13F that they bought Edwards Lifescience Could this be for their Smithson fund instead?$Sabre(SABR)$ $VeriSign(VRSN)$ $Fortinet(FTNT)$ $Masimo(MASI)$ $Qualys(QLYS)$ $Verisk Analytics(VRSK)$ $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ $Cognex(CGNX)$

Here's our factsheet for November.FCF ROC = 27%FCF Growth = 17%FCF Margin = 25%FCF Yield = 2.53%November return = 2.3%YTD = -17.4%Sartorius Stedim Biotech was sold due to valuation concerns (FCF yield = 0.4%) and was replaced with the Italian immunodiagnostics company Diasorin.Adobe$Adobe(ADBE)$ and Nemetschek$Nemetschek AG(NEMTF)$ were replaced with Paychex$Paychex(PAYX)$ and TechnologyOne$Technology One, Ltd.(THNOF)$ . This maintains our SAAS exposure, but increases the predicability and stickiness of their FCF.Here's a snapshot of the portfolio's valuation.$Visa(V)$

Here's the latest list of Global Compounders.New names include: Maruwa, Fabrinet, Neurones and WW Grainger. What would you add?Want this in a spreadsheet with FCF, returns on capital and valuations? Check out the link below.ImageSome of the best companies don’t need to reinvest; so they just return excess capital through buybacks.The requirements are less stringent than to be in my investable universe and portfolio. This is just a list of companies that have compounded value over the last 10 years and have a somewhat decent business. They're certainly not a recommendation.

What are the highest quality companies in the Fundsmith/Smithson investable universe?I took the complete set of holdings from both funds and ran it through one of my custom quality filters.Here are the ones that rise to the top 👇🏼👇🏼 $Nemetschek AG(NEMTF)$ $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ $Qualys(QLYS)$ $IDEXX Laboratories(IDXX)$ $Mettler-Toledo(MTD)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $HMS Networks AB(HMNKF)$ $Technology

Portfolio at the end of November 2024November performance: +8.8%YTD: 27.6%We began a new position in ATOSS Software. The top contributors to performance were $Fortinet(FTNT)$ and $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ . The top detractors from performance were $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ and $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ .FCF ROC = 38%FCF per share CAGR (5yr) = 24%FCF Linearity (5yr) = 0.94FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 6%FCF Yield = 2.73%ImageTake a look at the below table. AMAT and KLA have higher and more consistent FCF per share growth. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ generally has lower returns on capital and higher

What influences share prices?Here’s my mental model for understanding equity markets.In corporate finance there are three rules for maximising value: 1. Buy high return assets 2. Finance assets with low cost debt 3. Only return capital to investors if there are no suitable investments These principles should guide both how managers run their businesses and how investors find and manage investments. Maximise the highest possible return by investing in the highest returning assets.What would you add?https://twitter.com/long_equity/status/1634308890622849030

Fan of high returns on capital?Here's a list of US companies sorted by the minimum their cash ROC was over the last 10 years. In other words, these companies consistently have high returns on capital.Which do you like? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $VeriSign(VRSN)$ $Manhattan Associates(MANH)$ $Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$ $Texas Pacific Land(TPL)$ $MasterCard(MA)$ $Robert Half(RHI)$ $Paychex(PAYX)$

Portfolio at the end of January 2025 January performance: 2.6% FCF ROC = 37% FCF per share CAGR (5yr) = 24% FCF Linearity (5yr) = 0.94 FCF Margin = 35% FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 6% FCF Yield = 2.76%There were no outright sales or purchases. The top contributors to performance were KLA Corp $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ and Applied Materials $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ . The top detractors from performance were NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and Fair Isaac $Fair Isaac(FICO)$ .ImageOver the last 15 years, quality investing has crushed value investing.• The MSCI's quality index has an average outperformance of 2.71%, compared to -2.32% for th

Here's how the constituents of the S&P 500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ differ based on their growth rate and the linearity of that growth.I invest in the top right, where growth is high and predictable.ImageWhen analysing a company, consider where its product/service fits in its customer’s income statement. I personally target essential spending, ideally related to OPEX and maintenance CAPEX.ImageTwo things you can do to become a better investor: 1. Limit the number of companies you own 2. Limit how frequently you trade This forces you to: 1. Only own your best ideas 2. Accept there will always opportunities you miss out on

Portfolio at the end of April 2024.April performance: -5.7% YTD performance: 11.0%FCF ROC = 35%FCF per share CAGR (5yr) = 22% FCF linearity (5yr) = 0.90FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 5%FCF Yield = 2.95%Interest expense = 6% of operating profit Change in share count (5yr) = -9%If FCF per share keeps growing in the high teens, then it’s a fair price to pay for quality.There were no outright sales or purchases. $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ was the only contributor to performance. The top detractors from performance were $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ and $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ .Imagehttps://twitter.com/long_equity/status/1785424822237106511

Here are the holdings of the BlackRock Unconstrained portfolio.I’ve highlighted the companies that I own and would invest in.Any thoughts on the portfolio? $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Ansys(ANSS)$ $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ $Intuit(INTU)$ $MasterCard(MA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $S&P Global(SPGI)$

Here's how the constituents of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ differ based on their growth rate and the linearity of that growth.I use RSq, so the closer to 1.00 the better the correlation and therefore the less the volatility. And yes, it's against years.ImageHere are some of the financial metrics I optimise my portfolio for:What would you add?ImageInterestingly I rarely see FCF yield as a predictor of future share price gains. But I absolutely keep my eye on it!The three most important qualities of a quality business:1. Predictable growth2. Capital efficiency3. Pricing powerWhat would you add?

Here are the Japanese companies currently featuring in MSCI's World Quality index.Which Japanese companies are you bullish on?I'm currently researching:• Tokyo Electron $Tokyo Electron Ltd.(TOELF)$ • Advantest $Advantest Corp.(ADTTF)$ • Lasertec (my favourite) $Lasertec Corp.(LSRCF)$ • Disco Corp $Disco Corp.(DISPF)$ • Maruwa (not on the MSCI list) $MARUWA CO LTD.(MAWAF)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/long_equity/status/1785265758877933774

High growth companies normally have high multiples.I created this table to show the relationship between growth and multiples👇In short, a PE ratio of 50 requires a 20% earnings growth over 5 years to turn that multiple from 50 -> 20.FYI, I use FCF yield - not P/E. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $FT Vest U.S. Equity Deep Buffer ETF - January(DJAN)$ ImageTwo things you can do to become a better investor: 1. Limit th