I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Inflation Cools Surprisingly, Market Concerns Ease Slightly, Opportunities Remain Last week, U.S. December inflation data was released, showing a slight cooling compared to previously strong economic indicators. Specifically, headline CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, higher than the prior figure but in line with expectations. Notably, the increase was primarily driven by energy prices, which are subject to short-term volatility and lack long-term persistence. Meanwhile, core CPI increased 3.2% year-over-year, exceeding the prior figure but slightly below expectations. Core goods prices continued to cool, while core services remained resilient, particularly

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. US stocks have entered the Q2 earnings season, with Wall Street expectations on the rise. Will the market continue to buy in? As of last Friday, about 14% of the S&P 500 constituents have released their latest earnings reports, with 80% of companies beating earnings expectations, higher than the historical average. However, the magnitude of beating expectations is far lower than the historical average. Among them, the financial sector has the largest margin of beating expectations, while the energy sector is relatively weaker. The year-over-year growth in overall earnings of US stocks has increased compared to the end of June. Overall, Wall Street's earning

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Economic Data Released Intensively: Is the Fed "All in Control"? Last week, the U.S. released its November manufacturing and services PMI. Unlike the past few months, manufacturing PMI saw a significant improvement over previous readings and exceeded market expectations, though it remained below the neutral 50 threshold. In contrast, services PMI sharply declined, falling below expectations but stayed above the 50 line. In other words, manufacturing is warming up, though not sufficiently, while services are weakening, but not alarmingly so. Additionally, November employment data was released last Friday. Non-farm payroll additions, based on corporate su

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Review: US Inflation and Economic Outlook Improve, Recession Sentiment Reverses, Market Rebounds Recently, US July inflation data was released, with both CPI and PPI beating market expectations. CPI rose by 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3%, marking the lowest increase in nearly three years. In detail, core goods continued to decline, while core services remained stubborn, with higher increases in housing and transportation. On the other hand, recent US economic data has also improved. Retail sales in July increased by 1% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.3%! Even considering the -0.2% downward revision of June

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/15-2024/09/19, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Our View This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to cut interest rates by 50bps, officially opening the door to rate cuts. Contrary to the previous expectations of mainstream institutions, the Fed did not adopt the "25bps cut + dovish statement" approach, but instead used a "50bps cut + hawkish statement" to continue balancing expectations. The market had already anticipated the start of the rate cut cycle with a 50bps reduction. Given that the current Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is significantly higher than the neutral rate (around 2.5%-3%), the initial 50bps cut demonstrates the Fed's determination to prevent an economic recession, mitig

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. inflation cools down across the board, benefiting small-cap stocks while big tech are facing pullback risks? As we anticipated in our previous report, the U.S. June CPI data indeed delivered a "surprise," with figures falling significantly below market expectations. The nominal CPI month-over-month growth was -0.1%, not only well below the expected 0.1%, but also marking the first decline since the pandemic. Consequently, the Fed's rate cut in September is now a certainty. Interestingly, while inflation has cooled more than expected, big tech saw significant pullbacks, with major U.S. tech giants like Microsoft $微软(MS

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/06/10-2024/06/16 II. Key Market Themes i. "Big Three" Continue to Surge, Mid- and Downstream Actively Narrate: How Should AI Be Positioned? Recently, AI concept stocks have continued to be hot. The AI "Big Three" composed of Microsoft $微软(MSFT)$ , Apple $苹果(AAPL)$ , and NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ have, as previously expected, moved forward in tandem. NVIDIA has hit consecutive new highs after its stock split; after the WWDC conference, although Apple's products weren't very "wow," it hasn't stopped the tech giant from continuing to soar. Interestingly, recently released financial reports from m

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/21-2024/10/27, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Countdown to the U.S. Election: Markets Betting on a Trump Rally, Caution Needed During Macro Super Week! The highly anticipated U.S. 2024 election is entering its final countdown, with both the Republican and Democratic parties actively campaigning to make a last push. Interestingly, there is a wide disparity in polling data across different media platforms. For instance, CNN's recent poll shows support for both sides nearly tied, while The Economist’s model predicts a 54% chance of Trump returning to the White House. Additionally, external betting site Polymarket indicates a 66% probability for a Trump win. Recently, capital markets

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Positive Signals from China's High-Level Meeting: How to Position Greater China Assets? On December 9, the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo convened a meeting to analyze and discuss economic work for 2025. Compared to previous sessions, this meeting adopted a more positive tone, introducing the term “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments” for the first time. Moreover, in the overall agenda, “expanding domestic demand comprehensively” was prioritized over “building a modern industrial system,” indicating that addressing “how to expand domestic demand and tackle insufficient effective demand” will be the top priority for China’s economy next year. Nota

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/05/13-2024/05/19 II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. CPI Growth Rate Declines for the First Time This Year, Fed's Rate Cut Path Becomes Clearer! In April, the U.S. core PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly exceeding market expectations. However, this was mainly due to the government sharply revising down last month's data, with the March increase being revised from the previous 0.2% to -0.1%, directly leading to the "explosive" April PPI data. The market reacted quickly to this, and there was no significant decline. The following day, the U.S. April CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations. This marks the first decline in t

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source：Bloomberg, 2024/04/22-2024/04/28 II. Key Market Themes i. When the GDP falls short of expectations while the PCE remains high, the specter of "stagflation" looms over the United States once again •Last Wednesday, the United States released quarterly economic data, with actual GDP growing by 1.6% year-on-year, falling below expectations, while the core PCE for the quarter surged by 3.7%, far exceeding expectations. Concerns about "stagflation" emerged in the market, suggesting that the United States may face an economic recession while interest rates remain high, posing the most unfavorable situation for pricing various risk assets, with the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds jumping by over 6 basis points. •However, on the fol

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/06/03-2024/06/09 II. Key Market Themes i. Contradictory US May Economic Data: Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Further Away? Last week, the US released May employment data. The increase in non-farm payrolls was 272,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 185,000. The service sector maintained strong momentum, aligning with previous PCE and PMI data, and wage growth also rebounded more than expected, indicating that service sector inflation remains under significant pressure. Interestingly, the unemployment rate also rose in May, reaching 4%, which was higher than market expectations and seemingly contradictory to the non-farm payroll results. However, this discrepancy is due to different statistical methods. The

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Earnings reports trigger a continuous decline in big tech; is AI at this moment a pie or a trap? Last week, Google $谷歌(GOOG)$ and Tesla $特斯拉(TSLA)$ released their Q2 earnings reports on the same day. Tesla's net profit plummeted by 42%, significantly below market expectations. In contrast, Google's performance exceeded market expectations, but its guidance for the second half of the year did not provide any pleasant surprises. Consequently, the tech sector took a nosedive, and the Nasdaq index continued to decline. As observed in last week's market commentary, "The difficulty

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. October PCE Inflation in the U.S. Meets Expectations, Economy Strengthens – Can December Deliver a Rate Cut? Recently, the October PCE inflation data for the U.S. was released. Nominal PCE and core PCE rose by 0.20% and 0.27% month-over-month, respectively, both in line with market expectations. Notably, inflation in the services sector continued to rise with an accelerating pace, while durable goods experienced a continued month-over-month decline. Overall, while inflation has ticked up, it remains within expectations. At the same time, personal income and personal spending of U.S. residents increased by 0.6% and 0.4% month-over-month, respectively, signifi

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/05/20-2024/05/26 II. Key Market Themes i. The outlook for small and medium-sized businesses in the United States is not optimistic, with middle-income earners potentially becoming the key trigger. Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been speaking frequently. Among them, current director Waller, who is seen as a future Fed chairman, stated, "The current economy is very robust, maintaining high interest rates for 3-4 months will not be a problem, and the Fed's current focus is still on inflation." However, the economic damage from Fed rate hikes has a delayed effect. Historically, signs of recession have typically appeared around 10 quarters after the start of each rate hike cycle, and currently, it is the nin

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/08/26-2024/09/01, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. NVIDIA Earnings Beat Expectations, Yet Stock Drops: What's Behind It? Last week, the AI leader Nvidia $英伟达(NVDA)$ released its Q2 financial report. The data shows that the company's quarterly revenue was 30.04 billion, with AI-related data center business revenue at 26.3 billion, and the third-quarter guidance revenue at 32.5 billion, all of which exceeded market expectations. However, despite this, the stock price fell by more than 6% after the report. The market generally believes there are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the gross margin that Nvidia announced this ti

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source：Bloomberg, 2024/05/06-2024/05/12 II. Key Market Themes i. Favored by capital and entering the market in haste, how much further can the Hong Kong stock market rise? •In the past month, the Hong Kong stock market has shown a remarkable increase, with both the Hang Seng Index$恒生指数(HSI)$ and the Hang Seng Tech Index $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ significantly outperforming other major global stock indices. Regarding this, opinions in the market vary. From a valuation perspective, the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a relatively low range. The forward price-to-earnings ratios (P/E ratios) of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index are 8.9 and

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/23-2024/09/29, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. China's mainland has unleashed major economic stimulus measures, sparking a global scramble for Greater China assets. How should we view the subsequent market trends? This week, China's mainland has rolled out a series of major economic stimulus measures. On September 24th, the State Council Information Office of China held a press conference where the Governor of the People's Bank of China, the Director of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced the situation and answered questions from reporters. The policy intensity of this press conference fa

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/30-2024/10/13, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. China's mainland stimulus policies continue to increase, and Greater China assets have become more volatile. Is this a good time to increase positions? Recently, mainland China's economic stimulus policies have continued to intensify and accelerate. Since the policy direction was set by top leaders in late September, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, and lowering of mortgage rates on existing loans have been successively introduced. On October 12, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an attended a press conference at the State Council Information Office, introducing measures related to “increas

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/02-2024/09/08, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. September Calendar Effect Strikes, U.S. Stocks Plunge to Record Weekly Drop—What's Next? Last week, U.S. stocks experienced a September hit, with the Nasdaq 100 Index $纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ dropping 5.89% in a single week, marking its worst weekly performance in nearly two years, despite no significant shifts in fundamentals. As a result, discussions about the September calendar effect in the market have started heating up. According to statistics from Bank of America (BofA), over the past 100 years, U.S. stocks generally perform poorly in September, with the S&P 500