I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. US stocks have entered the Q2 earnings season, with Wall Street expectations on the rise. Will the market continue to buy in? As of last Friday, about 14% of the S&P 500 constituents have released their latest earnings reports, with 80% of companies beating earnings expectations, higher than the historical average. However, the magnitude of beating expectations is far lower than the historical average. Among them, the financial sector has the largest margin of beating expectations, while the energy sector is relatively weaker. The year-over-year growth in overall earnings of US stocks has increased compared to the end of June. Overall, Wall Street's earning

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Inflation Cools Surprisingly, Market Concerns Ease Slightly, Opportunities Remain Last week, U.S. December inflation data was released, showing a slight cooling compared to previously strong economic indicators. Specifically, headline CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, higher than the prior figure but in line with expectations. Notably, the increase was primarily driven by energy prices, which are subject to short-term volatility and lack long-term persistence. Meanwhile, core CPI increased 3.2% year-over-year, exceeding the prior figure but slightly below expectations. Core goods prices continued to cool, while core services remained resilient, particularly

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Economic Data Released Intensively: Is the Fed "All in Control"? Last week, the U.S. released its November manufacturing and services PMI. Unlike the past few months, manufacturing PMI saw a significant improvement over previous readings and exceeded market expectations, though it remained below the neutral 50 threshold. In contrast, services PMI sharply declined, falling below expectations but stayed above the 50 line. In other words, manufacturing is warming up, though not sufficiently, while services are weakening, but not alarmingly so. Additionally, November employment data was released last Friday. Non-farm payroll additions, based on corporate su

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Review: US Inflation and Economic Outlook Improve, Recession Sentiment Reverses, Market Rebounds Recently, US July inflation data was released, with both CPI and PPI beating market expectations. CPI rose by 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3%, marking the lowest increase in nearly three years. In detail, core goods continued to decline, while core services remained stubborn, with higher increases in housing and transportation. On the other hand, recent US economic data has also improved. Retail sales in July increased by 1% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.3%! Even considering the -0.2% downward revision of June

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/15-2024/09/19, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Our View This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to cut interest rates by 50bps, officially opening the door to rate cuts. Contrary to the previous expectations of mainstream institutions, the Fed did not adopt the "25bps cut + dovish statement" approach, but instead used a "50bps cut + hawkish statement" to continue balancing expectations. The market had already anticipated the start of the rate cut cycle with a 50bps reduction. Given that the current Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is significantly higher than the neutral rate (around 2.5%-3%), the initial 50bps cut demonstrates the Fed's determination to prevent an economic recession, mitig

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. inflation cools down across the board, benefiting small-cap stocks while big tech are facing pullback risks? As we anticipated in our previous report, the U.S. June CPI data indeed delivered a "surprise," with figures falling significantly below market expectations. The nominal CPI month-over-month growth was -0.1%, not only well below the expected 0.1%, but also marking the first decline since the pandemic. Consequently, the Fed's rate cut in September is now a certainty. Interestingly, while inflation has cooled more than expected, big tech saw significant pullbacks, with major U.S. tech giants like Microsoft $微软(MS

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/06/10-2024/06/16 II. Key Market Themes i. "Big Three" Continue to Surge, Mid- and Downstream Actively Narrate: How Should AI Be Positioned? Recently, AI concept stocks have continued to be hot. The AI "Big Three" composed of Microsoft $微软(MSFT)$ , Apple $苹果(AAPL)$ , and NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ have, as previously expected, moved forward in tandem. NVIDIA has hit consecutive new highs after its stock split; after the WWDC conference, although Apple's products weren't very "wow," it hasn't stopped the tech giant from continuing to soar. Interestingly, recently released financial reports from m

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/21-2024/10/27, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Countdown to the U.S. Election: Markets Betting on a Trump Rally, Caution Needed During Macro Super Week! The highly anticipated U.S. 2024 election is entering its final countdown, with both the Republican and Democratic parties actively campaigning to make a last push. Interestingly, there is a wide disparity in polling data across different media platforms. For instance, CNN's recent poll shows support for both sides nearly tied, while The Economist’s model predicts a 54% chance of Trump returning to the White House. Additionally, external betting site Polymarket indicates a 66% probability for a Trump win. Recently, capital markets

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Positive Signals from China's High-Level Meeting: How to Position Greater China Assets? On December 9, the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo convened a meeting to analyze and discuss economic work for 2025. Compared to previous sessions, this meeting adopted a more positive tone, introducing the term “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments” for the first time. Moreover, in the overall agenda, “expanding domestic demand comprehensively” was prioritized over “building a modern industrial system,” indicating that addressing “how to expand domestic demand and tackle insufficient effective demand” will be the top priority for China’s economy next year. Nota

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/05/13-2024/05/19 II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. CPI Growth Rate Declines for the First Time This Year, Fed's Rate Cut Path Becomes Clearer! In April, the U.S. core PPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly exceeding market expectations. However, this was mainly due to the government sharply revising down last month's data, with the March increase being revised from the previous 0.2% to -0.1%, directly leading to the "explosive" April PPI data. The market reacted quickly to this, and there was no significant decline. The following day, the U.S. April CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations. This marks the first decline in t

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source：Bloomberg, 2024/04/22-2024/04/28 II. Key Market Themes i. When the GDP falls short of expectations while the PCE remains high, the specter of "stagflation" looms over the United States once again •Last Wednesday, the United States released quarterly economic data, with actual GDP growing by 1.6% year-on-year, falling below expectations, while the core PCE for the quarter surged by 3.7%, far exceeding expectations. Concerns about "stagflation" emerged in the market, suggesting that the United States may face an economic recession while interest rates remain high, posing the most unfavorable situation for pricing various risk assets, with the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds jumping by over 6 basis points. •However, on the fol

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Greater China Market Volatility Intensifies as Trump Announces China Restrictions—How to Position for the Future? Recently, Greater China tech stocks have continued to lead the global market. Alibaba’s latest earnings report revealed a quarterly capital expenditure of $31.7 billion, further igniting investment enthusiasm in China’s AI sector. However, over the weekend, the White House released a presidential memorandum on the “America First” investment policy, restricting both Chinese capital from investing in core U.S. assets and U.S. capital from flowing into related Chinese enterprises. This has caused significant market fluctuations in Greater China. In

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/06/03-2024/06/09 II. Key Market Themes i. Contradictory US May Economic Data: Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Further Away? Last week, the US released May employment data. The increase in non-farm payrolls was 272,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 185,000. The service sector maintained strong momentum, aligning with previous PCE and PMI data, and wage growth also rebounded more than expected, indicating that service sector inflation remains under significant pressure. Interestingly, the unemployment rate also rose in May, reaching 4%, which was higher than market expectations and seemingly contradictory to the non-farm payroll results. However, this discrepancy is due to different statistical methods. The

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Earnings reports trigger a continuous decline in big tech; is AI at this moment a pie or a trap? Last week, Google $谷歌(GOOG)$ and Tesla $特斯拉(TSLA)$ released their Q2 earnings reports on the same day. Tesla's net profit plummeted by 42%, significantly below market expectations. In contrast, Google's performance exceeded market expectations, but its guidance for the second half of the year did not provide any pleasant surprises. Consequently, the tech sector took a nosedive, and the Nasdaq index continued to decline. As observed in last week's market commentary, "The difficulty

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump Sparks a U.S. Version of the "Debt Reduction Movement" – When Will the Slumping U.S. Stock Market Bottom Out? Trump Sparks a U.S. Version of the "Debt Reduction Movement" – When Will the Slumping U.S. Stock Market Bottom Out?** Recently, the sharp decline in U.S. stocks has undoubtedly been the most pressing concern for investors. Since mid-to-late February, over just a dozen trading days, the Nasdaq has plunged approximately 12%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has led the downturn with a 16% drop; and the once red-hot "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have suffered significant losses. Tesla has been cut in half, Nvidia has retraced 30% from its pe

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. PCE Commentary: Expected Data Triggers Predictable Market Sell-Off Last Friday, the U.S. February PCE inflation data unsurprisingly surged again. The core PCE rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. Consequently, the three-month and six-month annualized moving averages of core PCE reversed upward to 3.58% and 3.08% respectively, once again moving further away from the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% inflation target. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management Meanwhile, U.S. household personal income rose by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly exceeding expectations; however, personal spending growth was only 0.4%, falling

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. October PCE Inflation in the U.S. Meets Expectations, Economy Strengthens – Can December Deliver a Rate Cut? Recently, the October PCE inflation data for the U.S. was released. Nominal PCE and core PCE rose by 0.20% and 0.27% month-over-month, respectively, both in line with market expectations. Notably, inflation in the services sector continued to rise with an accelerating pace, while durable goods experienced a continued month-over-month decline. Overall, while inflation has ticked up, it remains within expectations. At the same time, personal income and personal spending of U.S. residents increased by 0.6% and 0.4% month-over-month, respectively, signifi

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Source:Bloomberg,2024/05/20-2024/05/26 II. Key Market Themes i. The outlook for small and medium-sized businesses in the United States is not optimistic, with middle-income earners potentially becoming the key trigger. Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been speaking frequently. Among them, current director Waller, who is seen as a future Fed chairman, stated, "The current economy is very robust, maintaining high interest rates for 3-4 months will not be a problem, and the Fed's current focus is still on inflation." However, the economic damage from Fed rate hikes has a delayed effect. Historically, signs of recession have typically appeared around 10 quarters after the start of each rate hike cycle, and currently, it is the nin

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. DeepSeek Reshapes the Global AI Landscape: Rising Demand for Computing Power—Where Are the Future Opportunities? Recently, DeepSeek launched China's first large-scale AI model with inference capabilities comparable to OpenAI, at just one-tenth of the cost. This move has sparked widespread discussion within the industry, significantly boosting confidence in Chinese tech stocks while causing volatility in U.S. AI-related stocks. After two weeks of market digestion, discussions around DeepSeek have largely settled. Consensus has formed around computing power and NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ , with the realization that demand for

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Greater China Tech Stocks Surge—Is It Too Late to Invest? Recently, driven by DeepSeek’s impact, the Greater China technology sector has experienced a significant rally. Since February, the Hang Seng Tech Index has surged over 15%, with Alibaba leading the charge, rising nearly 40% in just half a month. Additionally, trading volume in the Hang Seng Tech Index has surged, exceeding HKD 1 trillion in just two weeks. If this trend continues, February’s total trading volume could reach a historic high. Despite the rally, Greater China tech stocks remain undervalued. Current data shows that the Hang Seng Tech Index’s P/E ratio