IF International
IF International
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avatarIF International
03-26 14:05
An interesting time to be sure. Similarities and consequential differences. Earlier tariff blunders that fuelled market turmoil were easy to address (thus creating the 'TACO' title) by way of backtracking, conceding and 'making deals'. This time things are not so simple. Things were already out of US control in the early days of this campaign. Although well known to the intelligence community, the impacts of Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz seem to have avoided the attention of the Commander in Chief. Backing out of this one not so simple, the possibility of ongoing impacts are real.  Iran holding the cards one.
If history tells us anything, it is that the coming bottom is just the next (delayed) launch into new highs. Love it or hate it, this cycle has played out on a number of occasions since 2012, when factored in with a true growing scarcity, it's just a matter of time. The volatility of bitcoin reflects investors lack of nerve. Those who haveheld long term view these pull-backs as a blip at worst, an opportunity to exploit the price in best case scenario.
Hmmm... 16.... 17.... Maybe more / maybe less....
At this point, the true implications (and possible consequences) of AI cap-ex is, at best, unknown. Any knee-jerk reactions at this time are speculative and nothing more. Amazon's bet is on AI gives insight into where senior management see the company's future growth potential. In the near term, solid fundamentals still reflect a good company (and a good buy-in at current levels).  In the long-term only time will tell.
1C 2B 3A 4B 5B 6B
While there is much discussion around commodity responses to geopolitical impacts in the near-term, the long-term should be the real focus. Unravelling detrimental impacts from the current administration will take far longer to achieve than it did to inflict, future administrations left to fix damage both reputational and economic. Commodities, such as gold will remain attractive as a hedge against future uncertainties and global pressures resulting from the current environment.
$Apple(AAPL)$  Apple sits in the tech sector much like Berkshire holds weight as a conglomerate heavyweight. Looking at these companies on a short term basis poses risk where long term plays create profit opportunities and market risk protections. Periods, such as these last weeks always present long term plays for those using the stock as part of a broader portfolio strategy.

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