Mickey082024
Mickey082024
Value investor and Long Terms
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avatarMickey082024
04-17 14:07

The FED & Politics No Market Rescue

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Yesterday, I watched Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell deliver a live speech and participate in a Q&A session at the Economic Club of Chicago. While many of the remarks echoed previous messaging from the Fed, there were some very important implications for both the broader economic landscape and the investing outlook going forward. Let’s unpack what was said, how the markets reacted, and what it means for us as investors trying to navigate this increasingly complex macro environment. 1. The Market's Reflexive Dependence on the Fed Perhaps the most immediate and revealing takeaway was how quickly the market reacted to Powell's comments. At one point, Powell direct
The FED & Politics No Market Rescue
avatarMickey082024
04-17 13:47

Pfizer Generational Buying Opportunity?

$Pfizer(PFE)$ Pfizer Stock Is Down 63% – Is the 8% Dividend a Trap or a Gift? Pfizer’s stock has been nothing short of a trainwreck over the past few years. The stock is down over 63% from its all-time highs, and it's been one of the worst-performing large-cap names in the entire healthcare sector. The sentiment around this company has been so negative that its dividend yield has ballooned to nearly 8%—a level usually reserved for distressed companies. Now, an 8% yield on a massive, globally diversified pharmaceutical company like Pfizer is incredibly unusual. Normally, that kind of yield signals either a dividend cut on the horizon or some serious business deterioration. So, is the yield sustainable? Or is it a trap? That’s exactly what I want to
Pfizer Generational Buying Opportunity?
avatarMickey082024
04-17 13:45

Stock Market Crash Is RBLX A Buy?

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$ Roblox is a fascinating company to consider right now, especially as geopolitical tensions rise and the global economy faces renewed uncertainty from an escalating trade war. While many businesses are bracing for the impact of increased tariffs and disrupted supply chains, Roblox is in a somewhat unique position. As a digital-first platform and a metaverse pioneer, Roblox doesn't manufacture or sell physical goods, which means it isn't directly exposed to the kinds of tariffs that are hammering other industries. That said, Roblox is by no means insulated from all the risks. Its business model, while digital, is deeply international. Users from all over the world engage with Roblox’s platform, and the company relies on pa
Stock Market Crash Is RBLX A Buy?
avatarMickey082024
04-17 03:22

Electronic Arts just reported its fiscal year 2024 results, and there’s a lot to unpack here.

$Electronic Arts(EA)$ The gaming industry has undergone major shifts in recent years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the sector experienced a surge in growth as consumers spent more time at home. But that momentum faded once lockdowns lifted, leading to a drop in spending on games and consoles. Ongoing economic headwinds—such as inflation and broader financial uncertainty—added further pressure, contributing to widespread layoffs, studio shutdowns, and canceled projects throughout 2024. Despite these challenges, analysts remain hopeful about a rebound, driven by the anticipation of several high-profile game releases on the horizon. Electronic Arts just reported its fiscal year 2024 results, and there’s a lot to unpack here. Revenue came in at $7.5 bi
Electronic Arts just reported its fiscal year 2024 results, and there’s a lot to unpack here.
avatarMickey082024
04-17 03:21

Nasdaq Bear Market Nvidia Crash!

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia just dropped a bombshell after the market closed—and the fallout is hitting AMD even harder. Let’s unpack what’s going on. At the time of recording this, Nvidia shares are down between 5.3% and 6.5% in after-hours trading, depending on when you’re watching this. Meanwhile, AMD is down even more—around 6.2%—despite the news being entirely about Nvidia. So what’s the story? Earlier today, Nvidia filed an 8-K revealing that the U.S. government has imposed new export restrictions on its H20 chips—a version of the more advanced H200, tailored specifically to comply with previous export rules for China. The H20 was Nvidia’s workaround for selling chips in the Chinese market. Well, that loophole is now closed. As of April 9, 2025, t
Nasdaq Bear Market Nvidia Crash!
avatarMickey082024
04-16 16:11

Should You Buy Ford Stock or Hold?

$Ford(F)$ Even though Ford is a quintessential American car company, its stock has taken a significant hit—down more than 15% since the announcement of increased tariffs by President Donald Trump. At first glance, that may seem counterintuitive. Ford manufactures a substantial number of vehicles domestically. But the reality is more complex. Like most major automakers, Ford operates in a global supply chain. It sources many key components—including electronics, drivetrains, and various sub-assemblies—from outside the United States. So even with domestic manufacturing plants, Ford is still exposed to rising input costs due to tariffs on imported parts and materials. And while it might be less impacted than some international automakers who rely more h
Should You Buy Ford Stock or Hold?
avatarMickey082024
04-16 14:48

Trump Tariffs Hammered Dell Stock Should You Buy The Dip?

$Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ Dell Technologies (ticker: DELL) is currently trading at $77 per share, experiencing a significant 20% drop on the day. This decline is largely driven by the recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have hit global supply chains, particularly for companies like Dell that operate internationally. In this analysis, we will explore how these tariffs have affected Dell, dive into its financials using an automated stock valuation model, and assess whether this price drop presents a good buying opportunity for the company. We'll use several valuation methods to analyze the stock's potential, including the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model, Comparable Company Model, Dividend Discount Model, and the Ben Graham
Trump Tariffs Hammered Dell Stock Should You Buy The Dip?
avatarMickey082024
04-16 06:13

Is Disney Stock a Buy During This Market Selloff?

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ Disney’s share price is down more than 22% so far in 2025, and naturally, many investors are wondering: is this just a dip — or a legitimate opportunity to buy a world-class company at a discount? In this analysis, I’ll walk you through everything you need to know to make an informed decision. We’ll begin with the two most immediate and visible risks Disney is facing, both of which are tied to the growing impact of tariffs on global trade and consumer behavior. Then, we’ll zoom out and take a long-term perspective, looking at Disney’s revenue growth, cash flow generation, and returns on invested capital. I’ll also walk you through my proprietary discounted cash flow (DCF) model so you can see how I arrive at a fair value estimate
Is Disney Stock a Buy During This Market Selloff?
avatarMickey082024
04-16 02:26

Is Dollar General a Safe Stock to Buy In the Stock Market Chaos?

$Dollar General(DG)$ Dollar General is one of the rare stocks that has managed to hold its ground while the broader market continues to experience significant volatility. With investors increasingly concerned about rising tariffs, slowing growth, and shifting consumer behavior, one big question stands out: Is Dollar General a safe stock to buy right now? In this video, I’m going to dive deep into Dollar General’s financials, competitive positioning, and macroeconomic challenges to help you determine if it deserves a spot in your portfolio. I’ll also be walking you through my proprietary discounted cash flow model to reveal what I believe is the company’s true intrinsic value—based on realistic growth expectations and current economic conditions. So
Is Dollar General a Safe Stock to Buy In the Stock Market Chaos?
avatarMickey082024
04-16 01:50

Novo nor** -60% Is It A Buy or Hold?

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Market Volatility Continues Amid Sector Divergence The roller coaster in the stock market continues today. While there’s plenty of red across the board, we are starting to see some green emerge, particularly among the Magnificent Seven. However, looking back over the past week, the overall market remains largely in the red—except for the healthcare sector, which has shown a touch of green. Big Pharma Under Pressure Zooming in on big pharma, it's been a rough ride recently. Many of the heavyweights are not only down but down significantly. AbbVie is off by 18%, Eli Lilly by 14%, and Merck by 11% over just the past week. Year-to-date doesn’t offer a much brighter picture either. While results are mixed across industries, the b
Novo nor** -60% Is It A Buy or Hold?
avatarMickey082024
04-15 15:32

The AI Boom Isn’t Over Yet—And Google Might Actually Have An Edge

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Market Under Pressure Fundstrat's Tom Lee recently appeared on CNBC to share where he sees potential opportunities in today’s volatile market. Now, it’s important to understand the context in which he made these remarks: the market has been under serious pressure. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is already down 10% just a few months into the year. And concerns about a potential recession are growing. On March 31st, JPMorgan estimated the odds of a recession at 40%. Just five days later, they raised that estimate to 60%. A Misleading Bounce? Why Last Week’s Rally Might Not Mean What You Think But despite all the gloom, the past week has told a different story. Th
The AI Boom Isn’t Over Yet—And Google Might Actually Have An Edge
avatarMickey082024
04-15 11:36

Palantir Stock Valuation Risk Would You Take The Risk?

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ As the market faces increased volatility, investors are reassessing their portfolios and looking closely at the stocks most vulnerable to a deeper sell-off. Today, I’m going to evaluate Palantir stock and break down the three biggest risks that investors should be aware of in 2025. These are critical factors that could affect the stock’s performance, and understanding them will give you the insight you need to make informed decisions. Risk #1: Palantir’s Overvalued Stock Price Let’s start with the most glaring risk for Palantir investors: its sky-high valuation. In fact, this is by far the biggest risk to Palantir stock. Whether you look at its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, or any oth
Palantir Stock Valuation Risk Would You Take The Risk?

Apple Stock Decline Is It A Buy Now or Hold?

$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple Stock Is Finally Pulling Back — Is It Time to Buy? Apple stock is finally coming down, and it’s catching everyone’s attention. As of now, Apple is down 23% year-to-date and more than 17.5% over the past few months. This is one of the most significant pullbacks we’ve seen in a long time for what has traditionally been a market darling. And like many of you, I’ve had my eyes on Apple for years. But here’s the thing—I’ve never owned it. Why? Because it was always too expensive. Every time I looked at the fundamentals, the valuation just didn’t make sense to me. I skipped it over and over again, thinking “maybe next time,” and yet the stock kept going up. Year after year, it continued to trade at increasingly higher multiples, gett
Apple Stock Decline Is It A Buy Now or Hold?

Tariff Very Bad News for Realty Income Buy The Dip?

$Realty Income(O)$ $Dollar General(DG)$ Today, I’ve got some difficult news to share regarding Realty Income—also known as “O,” or the Monthly Dividend Company. I broke down why I believed Donald Trump’s return to the presidency—and more specifically, his trade policies—posed a major risk to Realty Income’s long-term fundamentals. Well, now it’s happening. And unfortunately, the outlook may have gotten even worse. Why Tariffs Are Bad News for Realty Income At the heart of the issue is the Trump administration’s renewed push for aggressive tariffs, particularly targeting countries like China. These tariffs are already beginning to impact a wide range of consumer goods and retail supply chains—and they have the
Tariff Very Bad News for Realty Income Buy The Dip?

Should You Buy Dutch Bros Stock on the Dip?

$Dutch Bros Inc.(BROS)$ Dutch Bros in Early 2025: Not a Buy Then The stock was trading at around $55 a share, and while there were reasons to be optimistic about the brand, I didn’t think the valuation made sense relative to the risks. Since then, we’ve seen Dutch Bros go on quite a roller coaster. The stock shot up close to $90 a share, fueled by momentum and investor enthusiasm, but has since retraced all those gains and is now trading back at around $53. Now, with all the recent stock market volatility, especially driven by the new wave of tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are once again asking me to revisit Dutch Bros. They want to know if the stock is finally a buy — or if it’s still too risky at this stage. So, in this article
Should You Buy Dutch Bros Stock on the Dip?

World Dumping U.S Treasury Bond, Would You Buy?

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ U.S. Braces for a Deeper Bond Sell-Off Washington is bracing for impact. If there was a single factor that forced Trump to pause tariffs, it was the bond market. Global retaliation, combined with investor fear, sent shockwaves through U.S. markets. The sell-off highlighted the dangerous path protectionism could lead us down. If the U.S. moves aggressively toward protectionism, foreign buyers have little incentive to hold U.S. debt. Domestic demand would fall, production costs would rise, and U.S. exports would become less competitive. That spells lower global revenues and, in turn, diminished confidence in U.S. Treasuries. This triggered a historic bond rout. Yields on the 10-year Treasury—the benchmark for
World Dumping U.S Treasury Bond, Would You Buy?

U.S. Debt Major Crash, US Plans Export Subsidy War

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ A Game of Strategy and Tactics The trade war has now boiled down to pure strategy and tactics. Today, we need to look closely at what China is doing — and what the United States is planning in response. Breakdown in Communication We’ve reached a point where communication channels between the two powers have essentially broken down. It’s become a repetitive pattern: the U.S. threatens Beijing, China retaliates, Trump responds aggressively within hours, and the cycle continues. The Core of the Conflict: U.S. Fiscal Weakness At the core of Trump’s trade war is a sobering realization: the U.S. is financially stretched. Deficit spending is no longer sustainable, and even ma
U.S. Debt Major Crash, US Plans Export Subsidy War

Investors Begin Mass U.S. Asset Sell-Off USD Just Crashed

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ US Bonds Are Imploding things are going from bad to worse. When Trump launched his trade war, it was built on a few core promises—chief among them, that the world would capitulate. But now, major economies are pushing back. He expected bond yields to drop, yet they’re surging. In just seven days, we've jumped from under 4% to over 4.4%—an incredible rise that signals a dramatic collapse in demand for U.S. Treasuries. Yields have even breached 4.5% in the last 24 hours and could climb higher. This wasn’t part of the plan. In times of crisis, the world usually rushes into U.S. assets—Treasuries, in particular. But this time, global markets are dum
Investors Begin Mass U.S. Asset Sell-Off USD Just Crashed

Alibaba Is It Still A Buy In Tariff War?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ With the U.S. and China back in a full-blown trade war, there’s growing uncertainty about how this could ripple through global markets—and one of the companies caught in the crosshairs is Alibaba. We’re seeing tariffs ramp back up on both sides, and this is raising real concerns about the future of cross-border commerce, supply chains, and consumer behavior. So in today’s video, we’re diving deep into Alibaba—what’s happening with the business, how reliant they are on international trade, how much of an impact these new tariffs could really have, and whether the current selloff in the stock is justified—or a potential opportunity. We’ll break down the company’s revenue mix, analyze its valuation, revisit what happened the last time
Alibaba Is It Still A Buy In Tariff War?

Bear Market + Tariff Should You Buy e.l.f. Stock At Dip?

$e.l.f. Beauty Inc.(ELF)$ ELF Beauty: Why I’m Still Not Buying the Dip – Even After a 59% Decline ELF Beauty is among the companies most significantly impacted by the recent tariff announcements from President Donald Trump. The new policy changes are poised to have material consequences, particularly for businesses with deep manufacturing exposure to China—and ELF Beauty fits that profile precisely. The company currently manufactures an estimated 80% of its products in China. With tariffs likely exceeding 100% set to take effect at midnight on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025, the financial implications are potentially severe. Such a dramatic increase in import costs would inevitably flow through to ELF’s cost of goods sold (COGS), putting even more pressu
Bear Market + Tariff Should You Buy e.l.f. Stock At Dip?

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