$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ SOXL finished up 15.9% at $141.93. I'm long from $111.50, so that's a gain of $30.43, or 27.3%. My stop was moved to breakeven at $111.50 and is now at $121.50. Back on Aug 24, I said SMH was a house of pain and to stay open-minded about rotation. Rotation did show up, and the $578 close was the first real tell. Now we've got the second. The pattern looks like a rounding base or inverse head and shoulders. The neckline was the $575–$585 band, which had the falling 50-day moving average and the August shelf. That level has now broken. My momentum indicator is +10.5%, leading the 50-day RS ratio, which has flipped positive. Volume is only +5%, but it's above average for the first time since July 31. I'd like to se
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ IREN was talking about compute rates of 20 paying back in 3 years. CoreWeave just signed 40M per MW, and Mush mentioned as high as 50. NeoClouds with a lot of capacity should be going ballistic. CoreWeave already has almost as much capacity up as SpaceX.
Intel is an American chipmaker with something most of its competitors don't have. There's a part of the Intel story that I think gets overlooked. Intel is an American company. It was founded in California in 1968, is headquartered in Silicon Valley, and has spent decades developing semiconductor technology and manufacturing capacity inside the United States. Compared with the major fabless chip designers, Intel possesses something strategically different. It has the ability to design leading edge processors and manufacture leading edge logic chips on American soil using Intel's own manufacturing technology and fabs. Intel actually manufactures leading edge chips in America. That distinction matters. Companies like NVIDIA and AMD are largely fabless semiconductor companies. They design some
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ I think NVDA might be in talks to acquire them, and they have already invested $2 billion. Maybe they asked for a debt offering?
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 79Is the $69 area even possible, with $60 as the bottom if we see more downside over the next two weeks? I'd buy back at each zone if it shows up.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator said at a recent tech conference that the company is "struggling to meet demand every day," describing it as a "unique moment" for the business. Demand for leading chips still looks robust, which is a decent sign for investors who were worried about a potential slowdown.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Buying puts on SOXS bounces is the play here. I stay away from these widowmaker ETFs otherwise. The brief green moves tend to turn red fast because the structure is built to decay, which leaves traders stuck holding the bag. The long history of reverse splits isn't random. It comes from negative roll yield, daily resets, and the constant decay built into how these funds work. The way to profit is buying puts on the bounces, not trying to time things perfectly, but taking advantage of their structural flaws. These ETFs bleed value over time, so puts work against that weakness. Retail traders keep getting pulled into these ticking time bombs and then watch the
If that happens, a slower pace of AI development could actually work in favor of neo clouds by making them more efficient. So I'm not selling, planning to hold for a while longer. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 175-200 is where this should be now based on peer valuation and far more compute capacity. Compute rates have gone up about 100-200% or more based on Musk detail weeks ago, so the companies with the most built data centers are going to be the biggest beneficiaries. Right now CoreWeave has about 4x the assets of Nebius, yet their market cap is about 10 billion less. The new compute numbers support CoreWeave rapidly increasing based on the above.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ The only relevant indicators tomorrow are CPI and how yields react, plus oil prices and how yields react to that as well. If yields break 5 and hold there, it likely leads to selling. If they drop back to 4.8, a rally would probably follow. Oil, gas, and yields - these macro variables are in full control of markets unless there's some major geopolitical headline, like a tweet announcing Iran has agreed to everything and a ceasefire plus reopening of the strait. If any of those play out, then the chart will matter. Good night.