$Intel(INTC)$ AMD basically confirmed one key thing: Intel is the one actually driving CPU growth, not AMD. Without real capacity, it's just talk, and the capacity situation is only going to get worse for AMD, as Lisa admitted on the call. Intel share price could reach $300 sometime in December this year. Mark it down.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ I still remember what happened the last time the Fed injected massive liquidity into markets. Back in April, SPY surged from 670 to above 760 in just two months. Now I'm wondering whether history could repeat itself. If liquidity returns and risk appetite keeps improving, SPY could potentially push from the 760 area toward 840+ by November. The market often moves before most people realize what's happening. Liquidity drives momentum, and momentum creates trends. The next major leg higher may already be underway.
$Intel(INTC)$ Semis across the board have already gone through a sizeable correction. Right now it looks more like consolidation. I think it just needs a bit more time. The fundamentals are stronger than ever, so I do expect it to rise again.
$Intel(INTC)$ It looks like $112.81 is the 50-day moving average. If it can trade above that level soon, the $121 gap close might be reachable within a few days. At this point, a lot of scenarios seem possible, especially since some big shorts are bullish or long in this sector. The recent selling looked more like forced margin-driven moves rather than anyone wanting to sell voluntarily. It feels like the next phase could be about letting sidelined buyers chase, and that might set up the next leg higher for the broader market. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Could see 750+ soon. Based on historical data, the month should close fairly strong from here. We'll see how it plays out.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Down almost 12% since June, while the SPY is only off about 4%. The April and May run gained around 35%, but the June and July tech rout wiped out 12%. A few things hitting at the same time — the Iran ceasefire falling apart again, KOSPI correcting 40% and dragging memory and AI plays lower, plus China CXMT and now selling weapons to Iran. Not exactly a clean setup.
$Intel(INTC)$ Rates unchanged. The buying opportunity on the most important company in America probably won't last long. It's been beaten down within the semi segment even after a strong earnings report. We're already deep into Q3, and there's clearly more happening at Intel than in Q2. Apple didn't take part in the tech dip. They have cash to spend. Guess where that's going to go?
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The market could double in 5 years. I don't think fighting AI makes sense — it's inevitable. It will produce goods and services faster and cheaper than humans. Think abundance, innovation, deflation. Think big; where we are right now is just a drop in the bucket. The upside is massive, and the downside scenario is essentially complete destruction — which means you wouldn't even have time to be depressed about it or short it. You wouldn't exist. I'm all in for the win. I'll be on Mars in 35 years sipping cocktails.
$Intel(INTC)$ Bank of America's view on Intel has turned increasingly positive. Back in June, the firm made the unusual move of upgrading Intel from Underperform directly to Buy. That is a rare two-step upgrade, reflecting growing confidence in Intel's AI server CPUs, foundry strategy, and advanced packaging business. That positive outlook was reinforced recently, as Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy rating and increased its 12-month price target to $160. Analysts can change their opinions at any time, but it is notable when a major Wall Street research firm makes a rare double upgrade and then strengthens that stance by reaffirming its Buy rating and raising its price target following earnings.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The right call would have been to hike rates. What actually happened was a hold. The right trade would have been to play the tape. What actually happened was overnight calls.
$Intel(INTC)$ $Intel(INTC)$ Semis caught a bid across the board, feels like some scared money getting tossed out of positions. There were 20,000 September $100 calls bought at $5.75. Also 10,000 November $120 calls at $6.50, adjusting from $130s. Another 10,000 January 2028 $100 calls, and 5,500 March $100 calls at $17.5.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ After another choppy week, Bitcoin managed to close above the 200-week moving average once again. The favorable July seasonality window is coming to an end, so it feels like it's time to mentally prepare for the volatility that tends to show up in August and September. Staying disciplined and having a plan is probably the best way to navigate these rougher seasonal windows, so now seems like a good time to put that plan together. It's a lot easier to build a solid plan during the calm periods than to try and react in the middle of the storm.