On January 28, amidst the sharp fluctuations in global financial markets, gold has undoubtedly become the brightest star in early 2026. Overnight, the international gold price surged close to 200 points, decisively breaching two key psychological levels at $5,100 and $5,200 per ounce, continuously refreshing historical highs and demonstrating a powerful "northbound" trend with its actual performance. For the current gold market, any attempt to predict a top seems futile; the force of the trend has already been established, with no signs of a reversal in the short term. Judging by the market's performance, gold's rise is not a short-term, sentiment-driven spike but a step-by-step climb supported by solid capital flows. Data shows that on January 28, the spot price of gold in London peaked at $5,247.628 per ounce, while COMEX gold reached a high of $5,238.6 per ounce. Domestically, the main Shanghai gold futures contract also hit a record high, reaching a morning session peak of 1,181.8 yuan per gram. Concurrently, the retail price for branded gold jewelry in China surpassed the 1,600 yuan per gram mark, with brands like Lao Feng Xiang and CHJ exceeding 1,610 yuan per gram for pure gold. Meanwhile, the A-share precious metals sector also strengthened, with the Wind Precious Metals Index surging nearly 6% and several gold-related stocks hitting the daily upside limit, highlighting the robust market optimism.
The core logic driving gold's persistent strength is a multi-faceted resonance of factors. On one hand, escalating global geopolitical tensions, including the heightened Greenland issue and increased uncertainty surrounding US domestic policies, continue to fuel market risk aversion, significantly enhancing the appeal of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. On the other hand, the sustained weakness of the US Dollar Index has become a major driver for gold's ascent, compounded by accelerating de-dollarization efforts and continuous gold reserve accumulation by central banks worldwide, providing a solid foundation for prices. Furthermore, uncertainties in the global macroeconomic and policy landscape are prompting private sector investors to increasingly allocate to gold for portfolio diversification, further amplifying the upward momentum in prices.
Looking at the short-term outlook, after breaking through the $5,200 per ounce level, the next key resistance is clearly identified around $5,252 per ounce. It is noteworthy that the market faces a crucial test today with a scheduled public speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Market consensus suggests that if Powell delivers hawkish remarks, it might trigger some profit-taking among investors, potentially exerting short-term downward pressure on gold. However, considering the current bullish momentum, even a potential pullback is more likely to present an "entry opportunity" for sidelined investors rather than signal a trend reversal. Historical patterns have repeatedly shown that within such a strong bullish structure, any correction is merely a brief pause within the broader uptrend.
From a short-term trading perspective, today's opening low near $5,157 per ounce has become a crucial short-term support reference. Given that gold is setting new highs daily without significant retracement, a dip back into the $5,157-$5,160 range would present a prime opportunity for initiating long positions. Essentially, the various resistance levels above are short-term technical hurdles. Aligning with the recent pattern of "daily breakthroughs and incremental new highs," these resistance levels are often easily overcome after only brief consolidation. Therefore, the core trading logic for gold is exceptionally clear: maintain a firm bullish stance. Whether entering on momentum or waiting for a pullback to re-enter long, the only direction is to follow the prevailing bullish trend.
Based on the above analysis, specific trading recommendations are provided: Consider initiating long positions in gold around $5,157-$5,160 per ounce. Place a stop-loss order below $5,145 per ounce. The target range is $5,208-$5,217 per ounce. Subsequently, the stop-loss can be trailed higher progressively based on further price breakthroughs to capture trend-based profits.
Overall, the strong bullish structure in the gold market is firmly established, and the inertia of the trend is expected to continue driving prices higher. For investors, while maintaining proper risk management, it is crucial to avoid contrarian short positions and instead proactively align with the market trend, seizing opportunities presented by any pullbacks. As institutions successively raise their gold price forecasts—Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end 2026 target to $5,400 per ounce, while Bank of America sees $6,000—the upward journey for gold may only be halfway complete.
