Since 2026, escalating global geopolitical risks and the relentless climb of gold prices have spawned an unexpected byproduct quietly fermenting in financial markets—bank safety deposit box rental services have become exceptionally popular, with many areas experiencing a situation where "securing a box is extremely difficult." On January 19th, international gold prices hit a new record high, with COMEX gold futures prices surging to $4,698 per ounce, approaching the key $4,700 threshold, while domestic brand gold shops saw the price of pure gold jewelry generally exceed 1,400 yuan per gram. Previously, multiple media reports indicated that safety deposit boxes at numerous bank branches in Beijing were fully rented out, with waiting lists numbering in the hundreds; some bank staff explicitly stated that "it's highly unlikely to get one in 2026." The situation in Shenzhen was even more exaggerated; according to reports, all over 8,000 safety deposit boxes at China Merchants Bank's head office business department were fully leased, and with an annual return rate of only 20-30 boxes, new customers might face a waiting period of 5-6 years.
This phenomenon stems from the dual effect of intensifying gold investment fervor and a contraction in the supply of bank safety deposit boxes. Throughout 2025, spot gold prices rose approximately 70%, delivering a return exceeding 60%, which sharply escalated consumer demand for allocating physical gold. Simultaneously, banks have been continuously scaling back their branch networks and box inventories due to the business's meager profits, significant space occupation, and high compliance costs, with some banks even discontinuing the service entirely. This supply-demand imbalance has catapulted bank safety deposit boxes from a "niche service" to a scarce resource, a phenomenon that also serves as a microcosm of shifting financial sentiment and asset allocation trends. The root cause of the "extremely difficult to secure a box" situation lies in the sustained boom in the gold investment market. According to World Gold Council data, international gold prices broke historical records 40 times in 2024, with a full-year increase exceeding 26%. Entering 2025, the price surge became even more aggressive, rising about 70% for the year with returns over 60%. On January 19th, COMEX gold futures prices touched a high of $4,698 per ounce, nearing the $4,700 mark, while domestic brand gold shop prices for pure gold jewelry generally surpassed 1,400 yuan per gram. The persistent climb in gold prices has profoundly altered consumer purchasing behavior. Latest data from the China Gold Association shows a structural reversal in the Chinese gold market in the first three quarters of 2025: investment demand surpassed jewellery consumption for the first time to become the dominant factor. Specifically, consumption of gold bars and coins reached 352.116 tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 24.55%; in stark contrast, gold jewellery consumption dropped to 270.036 tons, a substantial year-on-year decrease of 32.50%. This "one increase, one decrease" resulted in investment consumption exceeding jewellery consumption by approximately 82 tons, completely overturning the previous pattern dominated by jewellery consumption. The core driver of this market shift is persistently high gold prices and safe-haven demand; gold prices rose over 40% in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly dampening ordinary consumers' willingness to buy jewellery while simultaneously igniting strong investment demand among residents to allocate gold as an asset. The soaring public enthusiasm for gold buying resonates with the broader trend of continuous gold purchases by global central banks. World Gold Council data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, far exceeding the average annual level of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021. In 2024, net purchases by global central banks reached 1,136 tons, the second-highest level in history. Although the pace of purchasing in 2025 slowed compared to the record levels of the previous three years, their long-term intention to increase holdings is extremely clear—a World Gold Council survey shows that a high 76% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next five years, providing a solid and price-insensitive "base" support for gold prices. On the other hand, gold buying enthusiasm in the private sector is exceptionally high, with institutional and retail investors flooding in, attracted by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the rising gold price trend. The combined force of this "stability from official reserves" and "explosiveness of private demand" has driven a significant gold price increase in 2025. Institutions like Goldman Sachs predict that, under this resonance effect, gold prices may still have significant room for appreciation in 2026. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that central banks' continuous gold purchases are closely related to new changes in the global political and economic landscape, suggesting international gold prices might remain prone to increases rather than decreases for a considerable period. The China Merchants Bank Research Institute pointed out that emerging market central banks generally have a low proportion of gold reserves—for instance, the Chinese central bank holds only 5%, the Indian central bank 8%, compared to around 60% for European central banks—indicating significant potential for future increases, and the cycle of central bank gold buying is likely just beginning. Against this backdrop, the demand for storing physical gold has surged dramatically. Media reports indicated that on the last day of 2025, counters at Beijing Caibai were "overwhelmed," with gold bars under 300 grams sold out, and smaller bars being snapped up immediately upon restocking. A large number of investors holding physical gold now face a storage dilemma—worried about safety at home, yet finding bank safety deposit boxes "extremely difficult to secure"—a矛盾 rapidly becoming a new pain point within the gold investment frenzy. The tension in the bank safety deposit box rental market stems not only from exploding demand but is also closely linked to a continuous contraction on the supply side. Industry insiders note that the safety deposit box business is a "chicken rib" for banks—offering meager profits, occupying valuable space, and incurring high compliance costs. In recent years, many banks have consistently reduced their branch networks and box inventories, with some even discontinuing the service entirely. Coupled with extremely high box renewal rates and limited supply, these factors have further exacerbated the "extremely difficult to secure a box" situation. An investigation revealed significant differences in box sizes and rental fees among different banks. Taking China Merchants Bank as an example, its box models range from Type A to Type N with over ten specifications; the smallest box costs 260 yuan annually, while the largest can be as high as 42,000 yuan per year. Older-style boxes at Bank of Beijing have extremely low vacancy rates due to cheap rents, whereas fully automated boxes cost 3,000 yuan annually. Postal Savings Bank of China's fully automated boxes feature a triple-verification system (electronic access card, password, dedicated key) and 24-hour dedicated security, offering high safety but similarly facing supply shortages. Regarding the 2026 gold market outlook, major institutions are generally optimistic. The World Gold Council's 2026 Outlook Report suggests that, driven by factors like declining US Treasury yields, escalating geopolitical tensions, and high risk aversion, gold prices in 2026 could rise 15% to 30% from current levels; however, if "re-inflation returns," prices might face downward pressure of 5% to 20%. A Deutsche Bank report shows that gold's share of global central bank foreign exchange reserves increased from 24% at the end of June 2025 to 30%, while the US dollar's share decreased from 43% to 40%, indicating gold's growing attractiveness as a reserve asset. Nevertheless, investors must remain rational. The World Gold Council's "2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey" cautioned that while 95% of respondent central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings over the next 12 months, central bank buying does not guarantee prices will only rise; history shows multiple instances where prices fell despite central bank accumulation. The transformation of bank safety deposit boxes from a "niche service" to being "extremely difficult to secure" reflects evolving trends in household wealth management. Against the broader backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, gold's status as the "king of safe-havens" is being re-evaluated. The supply-demand矛盾 for bank safety deposit boxes might drive financial institutions to innovate valuable item storage services and could also spawn new market opportunities.
