The U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to vote Wednesday evening on a spending bill that would end the longest government shutdown in history, now in its 43rd day since October 1. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been furloughed or working without pay, while flight delays, suspended economic data releases, threatened food assistance for millions, and closed national parks have marked the political impasse. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed optimism about the bill's passage after the House Freedom Caucus pledged support.
Senate Democrats had initially insisted any government funding deal must include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, but eight Democratic members ultimately broke ranks to support a Republican proposal to reopen the government first with a mid-December healthcare vote. House Democratic leaders urged opposition to the bill, citing its lack of healthcare provisions.
Post-shutdown recovery will be protracted, with full operations potentially taking days or weeks to restore. Payroll systems require updates to process weeks of back pay, while agencies face backlogs of grants, loan applications, and customer inquiries. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed flight restrictions would begin lifting within a week of reopening, just ahead of Thanksgiving travel peaks. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the six-week shutdown reduced Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, causing approximately $11 billion in net losses.
Last-Minute Controversy Fails to Derail Process
A provision allowing senators to claim $500,000 if federal investigators obtained their phone records without knowledge sparked bipartisan objections before the vote. The clause, perceived as benefiting eight senators whose records were obtained during Special Counsel Jack Smith's election probe, drew Republican pledges to repeal it through separate legislation after reopening the government. Johnson confirmed Republicans would introduce repeal legislation next week.
The House Freedom Caucus hailed the funding package as "a complete victory for HFC, conservative leadership and messaging." Representative Victoria Spartz, who opposed September's stopgap bill, announced her support. With Republicans holding a slim majority, most Democrats are expected to oppose the measure, though potential defections include Representatives Jared Golden (D-ME) and Henry Cuellar (D-TX).
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries vowed Democrats would continue pushing healthcare subsidy extensions, including a new three-year proposal. "This fight is not over," he stated at a Wednesday press conference.
Restart Timeline Stretches Days to Weeks
Government reactivation will commence only after presidential signing of congressional legislation. While the House could pass Senate-approved measures by Wednesday night, many agencies may not resume operations until Friday or next Monday depending on legislative progress.
Federal officials warn some shutdown-related disruptions will persist. Transportation Secretary Duffy confirmed flight restrictions would phase out within a week of reopening, coinciding with Thanksgiving travel. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian projected holiday travel should proceed "just fine."
Though federal workers will receive back pay, agencies caution payroll recalibration may take time. While a 2019 law mandates "as soon as practicable" compensation after funding lapses, National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Nick Daniels noted controllers took 2-2.5 months for full repayment after the 2019 shutdown. Duffy pledged faster processing this time, promising 70% of back wages within 24-48 hours of reopening and full payment within about a week.
Economic Scars May Prove Permanent
EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco characterized the shutdown as "more of a stimulant than a shock to the economy, but that stimulant is getting bigger." The Congressional Budget Office reported the six-week closure reduced Q4 GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. While back pay will reverse most impacts, approximately $11 billion in net GDP loss remains permanent, including canceled travel plans and unrecoverable contractor losses.
Shutdowns generate no fiscal savings. A 2019 bipartisan Senate report found the 2018-2019 shutdown cost over $300 million in administrative overages, lost revenue, and late fees. Though the White House furloughed thousands, funding legislation mandates their rehiring with full back pay.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will resume normal payment cycles after weeks of delayed and rationed benefits, though states require up to a week to update beneficiary records and reload debit cards. With only two major card providers, simultaneous state requests may create processing bottlenecks.
Critical economic data gaps persist, with suspended price and employment statistics potentially distorting policymaker forecasts for months. Analysts estimate weekly economic damage at $10-$15 billion. While back pay and resumed spending will offset some losses, economists warn portions of this record shutdown's costs may never be recovered.
