On January 28th, gold continued its strong upward trajectory from the previous day. It opened with a slight retreat, dipping briefly below 5000, but soon began to climb. The price oscillated within a high range throughout the U.S. trading session, culminating in a sharp rally during the late session that pushed it to a peak of $5189. Ultimately, gold settled at $5179, marking the seventh consecutive positive close on the daily chart.
Global markets were once again dominated by Trump's rhetoric on Wednesday, January 28th, staging an intense showdown between currencies and safe-haven assets. Influenced by Trump's "tolerant" and even indulgent attitude towards a weaker dollar—famously comparing its potential swings to a "yo-yo"—the U.S. dollar index plummeted to a near four-year low, with intraday losses exceeding 1%. This pivotal shift fundamentally reduced the cost for non-U.S. currency holders to purchase gold, acting as the core engine igniting the market surge, which is continuously challenging and exceeding institutional forecast ceilings.
However, the market was not uniformly jubilant, as a severe divergence emerged in precious metals: silver retreated sharply after hitting a new high, with COMEX silver futures falling 2.73%, while platinum and palladium plummeted over 10%. This divergence clearly reveals the nature of the current rally: an extreme, gold-centric safe-haven trade driven by the "U.S. dollar credit crisis" narrative, where sentiment has overwhelmed all traditional analytical frameworks. The market is operating in an "irrational" zone of "extreme overbought" and "euphoric sentiment," where each new high is accompanied by even greater volatility risks.
It can be argued that the market has heavily priced in Trump's behavior pattern of "creating a crisis and then de-escalating it." This pattern was evident in issues from Greenland to Iran, where deploying naval forces was coupled with expressions of a desire to avoid military conflict. Should the market grow numb to the next "verbal crisis," or if Trump makes a substantive concession on a critical issue, it could trigger massive, concentrated profit-taking by long positions, leading to a sharp price correction.
The Federal Reserve's meeting concluded in the early hours, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, which was in line with widespread market expectations. The focus now shifts to Chairman Powell's press conference scheduled for 03:30 AM on January 29th; the key will be the dovish lean of his commentary. A hawkish-dovish tone might see gold exhibit a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern, limiting significant declines. An ambiguous stance could lead to a pullback in gold, and if it prompts substantial profit-taking by longs, it might directly trigger a sharp drop. An outright hawkish stance is considered less probable, but if it occurs, gold would likely fall sharply.
In summary, the author has consistently suggested that aggressive long positions are currently safer than short positions. This frenzied market cannot be approached with rational sentiment, as the profit from one successful long trade—potentially tens or even hundreds of dollars—can far outweigh the losses from several short positions. However, with the Fed's decision announced overnight, significant volatility is expected; both longs and shorts should employ strict stop-loss and take-profit orders. Prudent traders may prefer to wait until after the market opens tomorrow morning before taking action.
Therefore, the intraday trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Go long around 5210-5215, with a stop loss at 5200, targeting 5260-5270. If the Fed meeting aligns with the latter two scenarios mentioned by the author and the price breaks below 5180 in the evening, consider shorting with downward targets.
Key financial data and events to watch today: Wednesday, January 28, 2026 Next Day 03:00 Fed FOMC Statement Next Day 03:30 Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
