Since the start of last year, the surge in Samsung Electronics Co.'s stock price has added $350 billion to the company's market value. Bullish analysts are now setting their sights on its record profit expectations, suggesting the rally may still have further room to run. For the previous three years, Samsung's stock performance had significantly lagged behind its smaller rival SK Hynix Inc., which won favor with key client NVIDIA Corp. However, entering 2026, with optimistic development forecasts in the artificial intelligence sector and a sharp climb in memory chip prices, the market has begun to widely proclaim "Samsung's comeback," and Samsung's stock performance has now surpassed that of SK Hynix. Samsung's shares surged as much as 4% intraday on Wednesday after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the existence of a "totally unmet" market in AI data storage. The rally occurred just one day before Samsung is set to release preliminary earnings, which are expected to show its quarterly profit more than doubling year-on-year. "Previously, Samsung's valuation was low because it had fallen behind in the market competition. But I expect the company will see significant catch-up growth this year," said Kang Dae Kwun, Chief Investment Officer at Seoul's Life Asset Management Inc. The fund he manages has maximized its holdings in Samsung Electronics as it entered 2026.
According to analyst estimates, Samsung Electronics' 2026 profit is projected to more than double year-on-year, reaching a record high of approximately $60 billion, a level comparable to that forecast for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Despite this, the Korean firm's $560 billion market capitalization is still less than half that of Asia's most valuable company, TSMC. Multiple Positive Catalysts Market sources indicate that Samsung Electronics is close to finalizing an order to supply its latest high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to NVIDIA Corp. This highly anticipated cooperation is expected to boost the company's valuation. Simultaneously, the robust demand for high-bandwidth memory chips is squeezing production capacity for the traditional memory products that Samsung dominates. As a result, prices for conventional dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), used in traditional servers, personal computers, and smartphones, have surged significantly. "We expect a severe supply shortage for general-purpose memory chips in 2026," wrote Citigroup analyst Peter Lee in a report last week, adding that incremental demand from AI-related applications will further accelerate price increases. He raised his target price for Samsung Electronics to 200,000 Korean won, the highest forecast among brokerage firms.
Regarding other positive factors, Samsung's launch of several new products at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week, including AI-enabled televisions, has generated significant market buzz. The market also anticipates improvements in Samsung's foundry business, although this segment still lags considerably behind industry leader TSMC. Valuation Appeal Although Samsung's stock more than doubled last year, its gains appear modest compared to the rises seen by SK Hynix and other AI-themed stocks. As investors become more selective, Samsung's shares could face the risk of a pullback if earnings disappoint or if talk of a market bubble emerges. "Although Samsung's stock could deliver excess returns if it successfully catches up in the high-bandwidth memory chip sector, market expectations are already high and may even be overly optimistic," said Jung In Yun, CEO of Fibonacci Asset Management Global. He suggested that management's promotion of the "Samsung's comeback" narrative from clients is "more a declaration of confidence than conclusive evidence of an inflection point in performance." Nevertheless, since the end of last September, earnings expectations for Samsung over the next 12 months have been revised upwards by 115%, a幅度 far exceeding the 88% upward revision for SK Hynix and the 16% revision for TSMC. This has also contributed to a decline in Samsung's forward price-to-earnings ratio from a peak of over 25 times in 2023 to the current level of 10 times. "The current upturn in the memory chip industry is more powerful than previous cycles, so Samsung's valuation has the potential to break through historical highs," said Vey Sern Ling, Managing Director at Union Bancaire Privée.