On Tuesday, January 28th, international gold prices surged powerfully, driven by persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties, Trump's "yo-yo" dollar comments, and a sharp plunge in the U.S. dollar index to a near four-year low as traders focused on signs of potential coordinated intervention in the forex market by the U.S. and Japan. This propelled gold to recoup Monday's losses, climb further to refresh its historical peak, and close firmly in positive territory. Bullish momentum remains steady, also hinting at continued steady gains ahead. The trading strategy remains to buy on dips for support.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $5012.88 per ounce, initially recording a daily low of $5012.58, then fluctuated higher, maintaining gains until the latter part of the U.S. session. Subsequently, the bulls gained strength, driving a continuous climb of nearly $100 to a peak of $5189.94. The rally eventually moderated, closing at $5180.86. The daily trading range was $177.36, with a gain of $167.98, or 3.35%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, January 28th, international gold opened slightly weaker, maintaining the moderating trend from Tuesday's late session. Some profit-taking and a stabilization in the U.S. dollar index from its lows have limited further gold strength. Concurrently, the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, expected to keep rates unchanged, has also reduced the immediate appeal for bulls.
The key focus will be the Fed Chair Powell's monetary policy press conference. Even if he expresses hawkish rhetoric while pausing rate cuts, it is unlikely to cause a reversal in gold's trend. On one hand, the current support for gold is not solely dependent on rate cuts; referencing the sustained aggressive hikes in 2022, they only caused certain pullbacks within a wide range. On the other hand, the support is a result of multiple favorable factors resonating. From geopolitical risks to economic policy uncertainty, coupled with dollar depreciation, optimistic institutional forecasts, and continued central bank buying, everything points towards a long-term bull market for gold.
Additionally, there are short-term risks regarding U.S. government policy and potential shutdown threats. Therefore, from a long-term perspective, gold will continue to play a key role in an uncertain global environment. Looking at the next one to two years, any pullback still presents an opportunity for bulls to enter. In the short term, the target remains an assault on $5500, with a further move directly above $6000. Continued strength is also expected next year. Reaching the $10,000 mark before 2030 can also be ambitiously anticipated.
Technically, on the monthly chart, after pulling back to touch the trendline support last December, gold opened this month with a powerful surge, not only recovering the lost ground but also climbing further to continuously refresh highs, breaking outside the Bollinger Band. This directly negates the expected top formation and bearish outlook. Although there is an adjustment need from the Bollinger Bands, it is difficult to fall back inside the trendline. Hence, the outlook remains either maintaining high-level consolidation or continuing to strengthen within the new bull market space, awaiting a further push towards the $5500-$6000 zone.
On the weekly chart, gold surged strongly last week and continues its strength this week, trading outside the upper Bollinger Band. While there is an adjustment need, the current bullish momentum is robust. Any corrective pullback would find support near the upper Bollinger Band and the 5-week moving average, presenting another entry opportunity.
On the daily chart, yesterday's powerful surge recouped Monday's losses and dispelled adjustment expectations. The price action remains stable above the 5-day moving average, maintaining an overall upward trajectory. The trend continues to look bullish. Intraday trading can rely on support patterns from the 1-4 hour or lower timeframes for long positions.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level ideas for reference; specific entry/exit points are subject to real-time account notifications: Gold: Support focus around $5150 or $5110; Resistance focus around $5222 or $5280. Silver: Support focus around $110.20 or $107.80; Resistance focus around $117.00 or $119.20.
