Gold prices have recently hit a series of historic highs. London spot gold closed at $4,981 per ounce (up 8.3% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 1,110 yuan per gram (up 7.7% week-on-week). In early Asian trading on January 26, both international spot and futures gold prices historically broke through the key psychological level of $5,000 per ounce for the first time ever.
The global surge in gold prices is being driven by a trio of powerful forces: the accelerating and painful disintegration of the traditional world order, geopolitical turmoil, a crisis of fiscal trust, and persistent "de-dollarization" actions by central banks worldwide.
Cracks are beginning to show in the alliance between the US and Europe. Earlier last week, the US issued explicit tariff threats against eight European allies, directly weaponizing trade to serve political ambitions regarding Greenland's territory. The market interpreted this as a blatant violation of transatlantic alliance rules, triggering a flight to safety. Although conciliatory signals were exchanged at Davos over the weekend, leading to a temporary suspension of tariffs, the rift has been exposed. The European Parliament's "indefinite postponement" of a US-EU trade agreement, coupled with rumors of Danish and Swedish pension funds selling US Treasuries, indicates that rule-based trust among allies has been damaged, and the "alliance credit premium" of US dollar assets is being reassessed. Gold, as an asset not tied to sovereign credit, may be the most direct beneficiary.
The situations in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remain tense. In the Middle East, the US was reported to be considering options such as deploying additional troops, while Iranian authorities have characterized any attack as a "full-scale war against Iran" and placed the nation on high alert. This "war warning" level of confrontation has sharply increased the probability of direct military conflict erupting in this critical global energy-producing region. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying amidst a cycle of fighting and talking. From January 23 to 24, Russian forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Ukraine, including hypersonic missiles, severely damaging energy infrastructure. Global geopolitical instability is pushing up risk premiums worldwide, potentially driving safe-haven capital into gold.
The historic sell-off in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has exposed deep-seated global concerns over debt sustainability. Comments last week from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae regarding fiscal stimulus sparked profound market worries about Japan's fiscal sustainability, leading to a historic JGB sell-off that pushed the 40-year bond yield above 4%. At its core, this reflects market panic over a potential shift towards "fiscal dominance" policies in developed economies. This event not only highlights Japan's own debt predicament but also, through the unwinding of global carry trades, transmitted panic to the US Treasury market, causing a共振 (resonance) across global bond markets. This intensifies investor skepticism about the foundations of all fiat sovereign credit, dramatically amplifying gold's role as a "credit hedge."
The trend of central bank gold buying continues. While geopolitical and credit risks simmer, actions by global central banks provide solid demand-side support and a compelling institutional narrative for gold. The National Bank of Poland approved a large-scale plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, aiming to increase its total reserves to 700 tons and rank among the global top ten. The People's Bank of China has also been a net buyer of gold for 14 consecutive months. This wave of central bank purchasing is a clear effort to continuously optimize reserve asset structures and hedge against both geopolitical risks and US dollar credit risk.
There is new uncertainty regarding the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve. Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock whose policy views align closely with those of Donald Trump, has emerged as the frontrunner. According to data from prediction platform Polymarket, as of January 24, the probability of Rieder becoming Fed Chair surged to 54%, up from just 4% at the start of the year. He advocates for significant interest rate cuts, and his potential appointment could signal a further erosion of the Fed's policy independence.
Looking ahead, gold remains in a strong position in the short term, but investors should be cautious of increased volatility following overheated trading and are advised against盲目 (blindly) chasing rallies, adhering instead to a steady allocation strategy. From a medium- to long-term perspective, gold is an extremely scarce "order hedging tool" and "ultimate store of value" against the backdrop of a profound simultaneous restructuring of the global geopolitical order, sovereign fiscal discipline, and the monetary and financial system. Throughout the prolonged process of the old order disintegrating while a new equilibrium remains undefined, the allocation value of gold will undergo a systematic reassessment.
Key signals for the Gold ETF (518880) to monitor in the coming week: (1) The Fed's interest rate decision, to be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on the 29th, is highly likely to result in no rate cut this time; (2) Changes in the geopolitical situation.
Comparison of RMB-denominated Gold Prices vs. International Gold Price Trends:
Data Source: Wind, HuaAn Fund, as of 2026/1/25 Risk Warning: Investors are advised to pay attention to the specific risks associated with investing in gold-themed funds, such as gold market volatility risk, the risk of deviation between the fund's portfolio return and the return of domestic gold spot prices, and investment risks in the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot market, among other major risks. The fund management company does not guarantee that the aforementioned fund will be profitable, nor does it guarantee a minimum return; the fund's past performance is not indicative of future results. The operation history of funds in China is relatively short and may not reflect all stages of market development. The market carries risks, investment requires caution, and investors bear their own risks. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract" and "Prospectus" and other legal fund documents to fully understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund product. Based on an understanding of the product and considering the suitability opinions of the sales institution, investors should make independent investment decisions according to their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and objectives, and choose suitable fund products.
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