Zoom Video Communications stock, which soared as the Covid-19 pandemic arrived in early 2020, have cratered in recent months as investors switched their sights from stay-at-home plays to reopening bets. Shares are down 33% for the year to date—and nearly 80% below their October 2020 peak.
Zoom (ticker: ZM) at one point posted a string of three straight quarters with top-line growth north of 355%, as adoption of the company’s videoconferencing platform soared. But over the last few quarters Zoom’s business has been returning to Earth: From 367% growth in the January 2021 quarter, to 191% in the April quarter, 54% in the July quarter, and 35% in the October quarter. And the slowdown is going to continue from here.
Monday after the close, Zoom will report results for the January 2022 quarter. Zoom’s guidance calls for revenue of $1.051 billion to $1.053 billion. At the midpoint of the range, that would be 19% growth from a year ago. Zoom sees non-GAAP profits of $1.06 to $1.07 a share. Wall Street analysts surveyed by FactSet project revenue of $1.054 billion and profits of $1.07 a share—and the company always exceeds its own guidance.
For the April quarter, Street consensus calls for revenue of $1.095 billion, up 14.5% from a year ago, with profits of $1.03 a share, down from $1.32 a share a year earlier. For all of fiscal 2023, the Street projects revenue of $4.71 billion, up 15.5%, with profits of $4.36 a share, down from an estimated $4.85 for fiscal 2022.
Citi analyst Tyler Radke, who has a Neutral rating on Zoom stock, writes in a research note previewing the quarter that he remains cautious on the stock despite the 45% slide in the stock since the company’s last earnings report.
“We believe that competitive inroads are increasingly exacerbating headwinds persisting from pull-forward activity and tough comps,” he writes. In particular, Radke sees signs of rising competitive pressures from the Microsoft (MSFT) Teams communications suite, which he says is perceived to offer better security features than Zoom.
“In our conversations with partners, we heard about increasing Teams deployment, including from customers that were previously with Zoom,” Radke writes. “This trend has been accelerating with return to office and comfort level by IT departments, which is rationalizing collaboration systems and showing preference for Microsoft’s security features.”
Radke thinks Street estimates for the January 2023 fiscal year are simply too high—he’s projecting revenue of $4.6 billion, up 14%, with profits of $4.18 a share, well below consensus.