On January 26, the international spot gold price broke through the $5,000 per ounce milestone for the first time, reaching the highest level ever recorded in the global gold market. Domestic gold prices in China also surged significantly, with the spot gold price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange repeatedly hitting new highs, and jewelry store quotations exceeding 1,500 yuan per gram. Concurrently, prices of other precious metals like silver continued their upward trajectory.
Since the start of 2025, the persistently volatile yet rising gold price has captured significant market attention. According to the World Gold Council, the international gold price soared by 67% in 2025, marking the most outstanding annual performance since 1979; the domestic gold price in China surged by 58%, setting a record high since the Shanghai Gold Exchange was established in 2002. In March 2025, the international gold price touched $3,000 per ounce. It then climbed steadily, reaching $4,000 per ounce by October 2025, and recently broke through $5,000 per ounce, achieving this gain in just over three months.
In the week preceding the breakthrough of $5,000 per ounce, the international gold price posted a robust weekly gain of 8.31%, its third-largest weekly increase since 2000. Gold's prominent safe-haven characteristics mean that risk remains a key driver of its price appreciation. Bosera Fund Manager Wang Xiang believes that from January 19 to January 23, a succession of international macro events—including high-profile tariff threats from the US at the Davos Forum, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and widespread selling of European and American bonds—collectively impacted market sentiment, driving safe-haven capital to continue flowing into gold.
Why is gold particularly sought after when market risks escalate? This is closely related to gold's functional attributes and the current situation in financial markets. Wang Xiang stated that during periods of rising global economic and political uncertainty, gold's functions as a safe haven and a tool for diversification make it a superior asset for strategic investment portfolios. Especially given that equity market valuations are already high and the volatility and prices in the digital currency sector are trending downwards, gold's appeal is expected to increase further under current conditions.
Beyond risk warnings boosting safe-haven expectations for gold, strong inflows into gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) also provide significant support for the price. World Gold Council data shows that 2025 was a standout year for Chinese gold ETFs, with annual inflows into the Chinese market reaching approximately 112 billion yuan, a historical record for yearly data; in December 2025 alone, inflows into Chinese gold ETFs were about 3.9 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive month of inflows. Benefiting from fund inflows and rising gold prices, the total assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs in the Chinese market climbed to 242 billion yuan by the end of 2025, with a full-year increase of 243%, while total holdings more than doubled to 248 tons during the same period. The World Gold Council attributes the sustained strength in gold prices, combined with intensifying global geopolitical tensions, for jointly sparking investor interest in gold ETFs.
Furthermore, factors such as the potential restructuring of the US dollar credit system and high US debt levels are shaking the foundations of dollar credibility, thereby highlighting gold's value as a "non-sovereign asset" safe haven. Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, stated that the current US government debt has ballooned to $38 trillion, with annual bond interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, accounting for over 20% of US government revenue. With US government debt continuing to increase, market confidence in the dollar's creditworthiness is being questioned. Many central banks are selling US Treasury bonds and increasing their holdings of physical gold to enhance the gold backing of their own currencies, which also reflects the weakening credit of the US dollar.
Regarding the future trajectory of gold prices, the market needs to be mindful of volatility risks. Qu Rui, Senior Associate Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient JinCheng, suggests that on one hand, the approaching Fed policy meeting in January could trigger a gold price correction if the pace of interest rate cuts falls short of expectations; on the other hand, potential fluctuations in current trade policies and geopolitical risks mean that safe-haven sentiment will likely continue to provide some support for gold prices. Wang Xiang indicated that recent gold price volatility has been significant, and investing in gold funds requires a full understanding of the risks and prudent decision-making based on one's own risk tolerance. He also advised continuously monitoring global macroeconomic trends, gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and relevant policy developments.
How should investors rationally view the gold price trend? It is essential to define investment objectives, base decisions on long-term logic, and remain vigilant against high-level volatility risks. Qu Rui recommends that investors allocate to gold from a perspective prioritizing low risk and long-term allocation. Avoid blindly following the crowd and chasing rallies; instead, reasonably plan the proportion of gold assets based on individual risk tolerance, asset allocation scale, and investment horizon. Furthermore, as the primary factors supporting the long-term upward trend of gold prices have not fundamentally changed, it is advisable to grasp market rhythms and consider building positions gradually when prices retreat to reasonable intervals. The primary investment goal should be asset preservation and risk hedging, rather than purely chasing short-term price differentials, to avoid investment risks associated with盲目追高盲目追高 (blindly chasing highs).
