Kevin Hassett defended tariffs and other economic policies in a speech at the Economic Club of Washington on November 12.
As Wall Street recalibrates its expectations for the future U.S. interest rate trajectory, one name has emerged as a focal point in market speculation: Kevin Hassett. Over the past decade, Hassett has evolved from an academic economist to the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and, later, the director of the National Economic Council (NEC) in Trump’s second term. His journey reflects a shift from being a "moderate right-leaning economist" to "Trump’s most trusted economic ally."
Now, as the Federal Reserve faces one of its most scrutinized leadership transitions in decades, Hassett’s political loyalty, policy views, and market stance position him as a pivotal figure capable of reshaping global interest rate cycles, the direction of the U.S. dollar, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
On the U.S. betting site Kalshi, the probability of Trump nominating Hassett as Fed chair has surged to 80%, up from 40% just a week ago. Over the weekend, former President Trump hinted to reporters aboard Air Force One that he had already decided on a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying, "I know who I’d pick, yes." The announcement is expected by Christmas.
**Trump’s Political Ally** Kevin Hassett has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past decade. Initially regarded as a moderate conservative economist specializing in tax policy, capital markets, and long-term growth, he has held roles at the Federal Reserve and Columbia Business School. He has advised Republican presidential campaigns, including those of John McCain, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney, and served at think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institution.
When nominated as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in 2017, Hassett received endorsements from influential figures, including former Fed chairs Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. Today, he is deeply embedded in Trump’s economic inner circle, earning the former president’s trust. Markets are already pricing in this possibility, with bond yields declining and cryptocurrency traders reassessing future liquidity conditions.
Hassett has consistently defended Trump’s policies on trade friction, corporate tax cuts, Fed criticism, and energy. At a recent Economic Club of Washington event, he argued that tariffs had not fueled inflation as feared, asserting that exporting nations bore the costs rather than U.S. consumers.
His loyalty and execution have made him a key policy architect in Trump’s second term. Appointed NEC director in early 2025, Hassett recently stated, "If asked to serve as Fed chair, of course I would accept—I want to serve my country and my president."
**Former Advisor to Coinbase** Hassett first drew widespread attention in policy circles with his co-authored book *Dow 36,000*, which, despite being mocked for its timing near the dot-com crash, reflected his long-term optimism about market expansion.
During Trump’s first term, he chaired the Council of Economic Advisers, one of the highest economic policy roles in the U.S. Amid the pandemic, he was among the few economists with direct access to cross-agency data. His policy experience and partisan background made his 2025 return to the White House unsurprising.
Unlike traditional central bank technocrats, Hassett has engaged with crypto assets. Public records show he served on Coinbase’s academic and regulatory advisory board, earning $50,000 annually, and disclosed owning at least $1 million in Coinbase stock in 2024. He also advised One River Digital Asset Management.
**Advocate for Deeper, Sustained Rate Cuts** Hassett’s policy stance is marked by his sharp criticism of the Fed’s "outdated" models and his belief that high interest rates cause permanent economic damage while most inflation is transitory. He supports deeper, prolonged rate cuts and has openly stated he would cut rates immediately if leading the Fed.
He argues that strong wage growth, rising consumer confidence, and robust Black Friday sales (up nearly 10% online and 4% in-store) reflect a healthy economy. While some goods have become pricier due to tariffs, he notes declines in everyday items like gasoline and eggs.
This aligns perfectly with Trump’s view that high rates stifle growth. When Hassett’s potential nomination surfaced, Treasury yields fell sharply—a sign markets expect lower borrowing costs under his leadership.
**Risks to Fed Independence** However, his close political alignment with Trump raises concerns about Fed independence. Critics warn that monetary policy could become further politicized. Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta notes that even if appointed, Hassett might face resistance within the FOMC due to his aggressive easing stance.
Additionally, the Fed is entering a period of turnover. Governor Stephen Milan’s term ends in February, and Powell’s chair term expires in May 2026 (though his board term runs until 2028). If Powell departs, the administration could nominate at least two new governors within a year, amplifying executive influence over the Fed.
**A Growth-Oriented Philosophy** Throughout his career—from *Dow 36,000* to the 2017 tax cuts, pandemic data-driven decisions, and now a potential Fed chair bid—Hassett has championed a pro-growth, accommodative economic philosophy. This aligns with Trump’s political logic and could drive global financial cycles.
If nominated, the Fed would transition from Powell’s "anti-inflation era" to a new phase prioritizing growth, borrowing, and asset prices. Whether this proves an opportunity or a risk, Kevin Hassett has undeniably become one of the most critical variables in future global asset pricing.
