To The Moon

JPMorgan has released a research report stating that Hong Kong residential property prices have rebounded over 4% since their March 2025 trough. The bank observes increasing signs supporting a sustained recovery in the housing market, including resilient stock market performance (historically showing strong correlation with property prices via wealth effects), pent-up demand driving consistently strong transaction volumes, banks raising property valuations, declining listing volumes in the secondary market, more transactions closing above valuation prices (fueling FOMO sentiment), expectations of further (at least modest) mortgage rate cuts, shrinking inventory levels, rising rents, sustained interest from mainland buyers (whose population is projected for structural growth), and financial sector recovery (Hong Kong's largest GDP contributor). Against this backdrop, the bank forecasts an additional ~5% price rebound by end-2026. While acknowledging persistent headwinds (e.g., potential price cuts by high-risk developers, elevated unemployment in certain sectors), JPMorgan believes positive factors will dominate near-term dynamics. However, its constructive outlook hinges on continued Hang Seng Index resilience, given the sentiment-driven nature of property markets - with a key downside risk being stock market crashes (though not the base case). Among Hong Kong developers, JPMorgan prefers SINO LAND (00083) (lower risk; secure 6% dividend yield), followed by HENDERSON LAND (00012) (higher 6.6% yield but with dividend cut risks). The bank would consider buying SHK PPT (00016) if shares retreat to ~HK$85.