January 27: Last trading day, Monday (January 26): International gold opened higher and extended gains, breaching the $5,000 mark, but ultimately pulled back to close with an inverted hammer candlestick, suggesting short-term correction risks. However, given that it hasn't broken below the 5-day moving average and the current strong bullish momentum, the probability of a deeper correction is low. The outlook is more likely for gold to maintain high-level consolidation before strengthening and climbing again. Specifically, gold opened the Asian session higher at $5,005.58 per ounce, strengthened initially, and hit the day's high of $5,110.09 towards the end of the Asian session. It then faced resistance and consolidated within a range of $5,060-$5,100, continuing into the late US session before a consecutive drop to the day's low of $4,990.15. It eventually stopped falling and recovered, closing at $5,008.35. Compared to last week's close of $4,982.08, the daily amplitude was $128.01, with a gain of $26.27, or 0.53%.
The driving factors included a renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the weekend, leading to a higher open and rise. Additionally, market expectations of an approximately 80% probability of a US government shutdown before the end of January, coupled with former President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada and his move to raise retaliatory tariffs on South Korea from 15% to 25%, reignited tariff concerns, helping gold break above $5,100. However, profit-taking emerged as Trump stated that while the Iran situation is changing rapidly, he believes Iran genuinely wants to reach a deal, which slightly reduced safe-haven demand, causing gold to retreat and close off its highs. Looking ahead to today, Tuesday (January 27): International gold opened with strength, extending the recovery momentum from the late session and supported by dip-buying. The key focus for the day is whether it can close above $5,070 to signal continued strength; otherwise, it may face some correction pressure. On one hand, yesterday's inverted hammer bearish pattern and the fact that the price is currently trading outside the Bollinger Band upper轨 suggest a potential pullback. On the other hand, data released so far this week has been generally bearish, and the Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday is expected to keep rates unchanged, which could exert some downward pressure on gold. Therefore, attention is needed for potential correction demands over the next one to two weeks.
Nevertheless, the technical bullish outlook remains sound, with gold operating in a new bullish space after breaking above the trendline resistance. Fundamentally, supportive and bullish expectations persist. Beyond safe-haven demand, continued gold purchases by central banks diversifying their forex reserves, and a roughly 20% year-on-year increase in gold ETF holdings, all provide a solid buying foundation. Thus, even if a pullback occurs, it can still be viewed as an opportunity to enter long positions. Conversely, if the price continues to strengthen and closes positively, one could follow the bullish trend without waiting for a pullback. For the year, further advances towards the $5,500-$6,000 zone or higher are anticipated. During the day, focus will be on data including the US November FHFA House Price Index MoM, US November S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index NSA YoY, US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and US January Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Based on yesterday's data and market expectations, these are likely to be bearish for gold, presenting buying opportunities on any dips. Technically, on a monthly chart, gold opened this month with a strong rally, continuing to trade above the trendline pressure and recovering the retreat from December, while further刷新ing new highs. This directly negates the previously anticipated top-forming bearish pattern. If this momentum holds for the month without forming a significant inverted hammer, it will further open up new bullish space and trends for the year, potentially yielding gains exceeding 30%, targeting the $5,500-$6,000 area. Conversely, if the month closes with another inverted hammer or back within the trendline, the subsequent move would likely be another prolonged sideways adjustment, creating another entry opportunity.
On a weekly chart, gold experienced a strong rally last week, breaking above the upper Bollinger Band, and continues to trade outside it this week, raising risks of a corrective decline. However, the upper Bollinger Band now acts as support, and a touch of this level would also present a buying opportunity. On the daily chart, although gold has formed an inverted hammer bearish pattern, the breakout above the rising trendline inflation resistance has significantly improved the bullish outlook. Therefore, any further pullback should find support at the trendline, offering another chance to enter long positions. Conversely, if today's close is above $5,070, the weekly outlook remains bullish towards $5,160 or higher. For specific real-time trading guidance during the day, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas for reference; specific entry/exit points are subject to live account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $5,010 or $4,970; Resistance levels to watch are around $5,080 or $5,120; Silver: Support levels to watch are around $105.20 or $103.20; Resistance levels to watch are around $109.10 or $112.40;
