Most major banks call for a third consecutive year of strong returns for the S&P 500, the benchmark stock index tracking 500 of the largest public American companies, offering a welcome bullish signal for investors already enjoying a historic bull market.
Here are the current 2025 targets from top banks:
Wells Fargo: 7,007
A favorable macroeconomic backdrop and easing monetary policy will keep US equities soaring next year after banner performances in 2023 and 2024, according to Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
By the end of next December, the S&P 500 Index will be sitting at 7,007, the firm’s head of equity strategy Christopher Harvey wrote in a Dec. 3 note to clients.
This leg of the rally is distinct from what’s come before in that Harvey isn’t suggesting investors pile into the Big Tech stocks that have dominated the market the past two years. Instead, he recommends a roughly 40% allocation to banks, 40% to communications services, and 20% to consumer staples. On an index level, he prefers the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 over the regular market-capitalization version as breadth widens — plus, it offers more downside protection. And looking at size and style, he likes mid-cap growth shares.
Deutsche Bank: 7,000
Deutsche Bank set a target for the S&P 500, predicting the benchmark index will reach 7000 by the end of 2025.
Jim Reid, Head of Global Economics and Thematic Research at Deutsche Bank, commented that this forecast hinges on a solid demand-supply backdrop for U.S. equities, with the bank expecting continued robust inflows into both equity and bond markets, albeit at a slightly slower pace.
The new Street-high projection also factors in an anticipated increase in S&P 500 buybacks from an annual run rate of $1.1 trillion to about $1.3 trillion next year, rising in step with earnings.
"We see various aspects of the cycle still to come, including a move from de- to re-stocking; a pickup in capex outside Tech; a manufacturing recovery; rises in consumer and corporate confidence; a recovery in capital markets and M&A activity; a pickup in loan growth; and rest of the world growth," Reid wrote in a note.
Bank of America: 6,666
Bank of America believes the stock market could see another solid year with double-digit returns, and certain sectors are poised to enjoy outsized gains.
“We see more opportunities in stocks than the index. In particular, we like companies with healthy cash return prospects and a tether to the US economy,” Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and strategy, said in a note to clients.
In particular, BofA said it is bullish on financials, discretionary, materials, real estate and utilities.
Morgan Stanley: 6,500
The new year is setting up to be a strong one thanks to lower Federal Reserve rates and a more business-friendly presidency in Washington, according to Morgan Stanley.
Strategist Michael Wilson sees the S&P 500 reaching 6,500 in 2025. “The combination of the Fed rate cutting cycle with the election result has the potential to drive broad sentiment materially higher,” Wilson wrote.
Wilson said the election results could lead to a “rise in corporate animal spirits” that may “catalyze a more balanced earnings profile across the market in 2025,” while an easier regulatory regime under President-elect Donald Trump boosts investor sentiment.
JPMorgan Chase: 6,500
JPMorgan set its 2025 price target for the S&P 500 index at 6,500, implying 8% upside potential from current levels.
The target is driven by a projected earnings growth of 10% for the index, reaching $270 in earnings per share (EPS) next year. JPMorgan cites a combination of easing monetary policy, robust AI-driven capital spending, and improving market breadth as key catalysts for the expected growth.
Smaller companies, particularly in the Russell 2000, are also projected to rebound strongly, delivering 40% earnings growth after consecutive years of decline.
According to JPMorgan’s note, the US economy remains pivotal to this outlook.
Goldman Sachs: 6,500
The S&P 500 index could hit 6500 by the end of next year, according to Goldman Sachs, boosted by the U.S. economy's growth and higher corporate earnings.12
Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin wrote that the Wall Street firm's forecast reflects a "12% total return with dividends" by the end of next year, "predicated on continued U.S. economic expansion, earnings growth of 11% in 2025." The index has been on a tear this year.
The Magnificent Seven stocks will continue to gain, Goldman said, but their margin of outperformance versus the other 493 stocks in the index will be smaller. Goldman also recommended buying mergers and acquisitions (M&A) candidates under a Donald Trump administration expected to ease regulation, as well as companies that gain from "Phase 3" of the AI evolution, like Apple and Snowflake.
Citigroup: 6,500
The stock market rally of 2024 shows no signs of slowing down in the new year, according to Citi.
The bank set a 6,500 target for the S&P 500 for 2025 as its base case.
Citi listed tailwinds from artificial intelligence, the continued expectation of an economic soft landing and President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration as potential catalysts for stocks heading into next year.