Global crude oil markets are being reshaped by transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Bloomberg, citing vessel tracking data from Wednesday, Saudi Aramco is working at full capacity to increase throughput on its East-West Pipeline, while exports from Fujairah in the UAE have surged significantly. At least 25 oil tankers have already been rerouted to the Red Sea port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, indicating a near-term restructuring of global petroleum supply flows.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, stated that flows through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu will reach the full capacity limit of 7 million barrels per day "within days," adding that "everything is based on the redeployment of tankers from east to west." Meanwhile, exports from Fujairah port in the UAE have jumped from around 1.1 million barrels per day earlier this month to approximately 1.6 million barrels per day.
On Tuesday afternoon, Brent crude futures retreated to around $81 per barrel following reports that a U.S. warship had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, easing market concerns over a complete shutdown of the shipping lane. However, analysts cautioned that the likelihood of a full restoration of normal transit operations within the week remains limited.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have simultaneously activated alternative export routes in response to the continued disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco is pushing the East-West Pipeline toward its designed maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, transporting crude from facilities along the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu for onward export via tankers. Amin Nasser indicated that pipeline flows will peak within days as tankers continue to be redeployed from eastern to western routes.
The UAE is implementing a similar strategy using Fujairah port, which is located on the Gulf of Oman and allows exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The port’s export volume has increased by approximately 45% from recent averages this month, rising to around 1.6 million barrels per day.
In parallel, French President Emmanuel Macron held calls with the prime ministers of Italy and Greece on Thursday morning. The three leaders agreed to coordinate the delivery of military supplies to Cyprus and jointly uphold freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, as European nations seek to stabilize this critical shipping corridor through multilateral coordination.
Despite the accelerated activation of alternative routes, geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on market sentiment. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a stern warning, stating that the Strait of Hormuz will "either be a route of peace and prosperity for all, or a path of defeat and suffering for warmongers." The strong wording suggests Iran may not rule out further escalation.
Some vessels continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders turned off, indicating that transit risks have not been fully eliminated. The ongoing conflict has already reduced global oil supply by approximately 6%, forcing several producing countries to cut output due to full storage tanks. Supply-side pressures are expected to persist in the short term.
