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Guotai Junan Futures Market Analyst Zhang Chining Z0020302 1. Escalating Geopolitical Risks Boost Safe-Haven Demand The current global geopolitical landscape is marked by multiple points of tension. Actions by the United States on trade policy and certain regional issues could potentially exacerbate friction with traditional allies such as Europe. Concurrently, Iran has adopted a hardline stance, and Cuba has declared a state of full combat readiness. The accumulation of these uncertainties has significantly intensified market risk aversion. 2. Growing Expectations for a Dovish Shift in Fed Policy Potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership are also drawing market attention. Currently, a candidate perceived as "dovish," Rick Rieder, has emerged as a frontrunner for the next chair. His public views lean towards maintaining accommodative monetary policy and exhibiting a high tolerance for fiscal deficits. Should he lead the Fed, market expectations for faster and larger interest rate cuts in the future could strengthen. 3. Potential for a Mean Reversion in the Gold-Silver Ratio From a cross-commodity perspective, the current gold-silver ratio is at a relatively low level within its historical statistical range. Based on the statistical principle of mean reversion, there exists a possibility for this ratio to correct upwards. 4. Signs of Capital Inflow Fund flow data indicates a notable recent increase in the holdings of major gold ETFs. For instance, the world's largest SPDR Gold Shares ETF, along with several domestic gold ETFs, have shown significant accumulation, reflecting a growing investor appetite for gold allocation. This sustained buying interest provides underlying support for the market. 5. US Dollar Index Faces Multiple Pressures Persistent issues surrounding the US fiscal deficit and debt levels, compounded by uncertainties in international relations stemming from its foreign policy, are exerting pressure on the US Dollar Index. 6. Strong Technical Setup in Domestic Futures Market Observing the domestic market, the main Shanghai gold futures contract achieved a critical secondary breakout above a key technical level on January 12, which to some extent confirms the continuation of the short-term uptrend. Furthermore, the market has shifted from its previous pattern of low volume and contracting open interest during consolidation, now showing signs of "increasing open interest with rising volume," indicating an improvement in capital participation on the trading floor.
Key variables to monitor closely in the short term include: Fed Personnel Changes: Developments regarding the new chair candidate. US Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates a final decision may be announced either before President Trump's departure for the Davos Forum or after his return. Geopolitical Dynamics: Whether the situations in the aforementioned hotspots will escalate or de-escalate. Fund Flows: Whether holdings of the world's largest gold ETF (SPDR) continue to increase, serving as a key indicator of large capital sentiment.
Sources: Wind, Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Phoenix Finance Submission Time: January 20, 2026, 13:42 This content is intended for educational and exchange purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Receiving this document does not establish any business relationship between Guotai Junan Futures and the reader. Our company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information, and investors must assume risks independently. The views expressed herein are solely the author's personal analysis and do not represent the company's position. Unauthorized reproduction, modification, or citation in any form is prohibited. For reprinting, please cite Guotai Junan Futures as the source, ensure the content's integrity, and do not quote, excerpt, or modify this commentary in a manner that distorts its original intent.
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