On January 14, as we step into 2026, the global precious metals market is at a critical juncture of extreme volatility, with gold expected to rapidly climb to a historic high of $5,000 per ounce in the first quarter. Alongside this trend, silver is projected to hit the milestone of $100 per ounce. Mhmarkets states that the core drivers supporting this robust bull market stem from a significant escalation in geopolitical risks, supply gaps in the physical market, and renewed market skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's independence. These factors collectively push up the premium on safe-haven assets, making gold and silver exceptionally prominent at the start of the year.
In terms of asset allocation performance ranking, silver's performance is expected to continue surpassing that of gold, a logic substantiated by the tight conditions in the physical market. Mhmarkets indicates that the physical market tightness for platinum group metals and silver is currently deepening, while the uncertainty brought by the "Section 232" tariff ruling on critical minerals further amplifies price博弈 risks in trade flows. Mhmarkets believes that although tariff barriers may induce supply shortages in the U.S. market and trigger extreme price spikes in the short term, the subsequent return of inventories after policy clarity will alleviate physical tightness in other global markets, thereby setting the stage for a price correction in the second half of the year.
Base metals may gradually replace precious metals as the leading players on the commodities stage in future market cycles. Mhmarkets states that as global tensions see a phased easing after the first quarter, gold, due to its strong safe-haven attributes, is most susceptible to downward correction pressure from profit-taking. However, rigid demand from the industrial sector will support metals like aluminum and copper in demonstrating greater resilience in the second half of 2026. Mhmarkets believes that even if tactical selling occurs due to short-term policy fluctuations, every price pullback should be viewed as a favorable opportunity for phased entry under the premise of an unchanged overall bull trend, advising investors to closely monitor the relay performance of industrial metals in a multipolar trade environment.
