Tesla's Q4 revenue is expected to be $27.195 billion, adjusted net income is $2.66 billion, and adjusted EPS is $0.748, according to Bloomberg's consistent expectations.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 after market close on Wednesday, January 29, 2025.
Tesla's Q4 revenue is expected to be $27.195 billion, adjusted net income is $2.66 billion, and adjusted EPS is $0.748, according to Bloomberg's consistent expectations.
Previous Quarter Review
Tesla reported third-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ estimates even as revenue came in just shy of expectations.
Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 72 cents, adjusted vs. 58 cents expected
Revenue: $25.18 billion vs. $25.37 billion expected
Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier. Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago.
Q4 Results Outlook
Tesla Reports First-Ever Drop in Annual Deliveries
Tesla has posted its fourth-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report. Here are the key numbers:
Total deliveries Q4 2024: 495,570
Total production Q4 2024: 459,445
Total annual deliveries 2024: 1,789,226
Total annual production 2024: 1,773,443
Results for the quarter represented the first annual drop in delivery numbers for Tesla, which reported 1.81 million deliveries in 2023. It reported 484,507 deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Tesla's Megapack Gains a Sweetener as Car Sales Slow
Tesla's 4Q earnings appear poised to top consensus, fueled by record-breaking deployments in its energy segment. The ramp-up of its Megapack battery plant in Shanghai -- almost doubling storage deployment to 60 gigawatt-hours -- will likely boost future earnings, with an estimated 30% gross margin outperforming the auto segment. In 1H, Tesla plans to launch an updated Model Y and introduce a new, more affordable model, expanding market reach. The latter's earnings impact will be more pronounced by late 2025.
Total auto 4Q gross margin could drop as much as 100 bps from 3Q's 20.1%, but may still be better than 1H24. A production decline in the quarter may suggest preparation for a Model Y refresh.
Trump's Policies, Autonomous Vehicle Timelines and 2025 Guidance
Tesla stock gained around 63% in 2024, virtually all of that in the fourth quarter, especially after President-elect Donald Trump's election win. Now, investors await Trump administration policy, including possibly dialing back the Inflation Reduction Act and the potential easing of regulations for autonomous vehicles.
Analysts generally see the Trump presidency as an overall negative for EVs, but a positive for Tesla. Musk fostered a good relationship with the president-elect after campaigning tirelessly for him throughout the election cycle.
Investors also will be looking for updates on autonomous vehicle timelines and 2025 guidance.
Tesla influencers gushed over Full Self-Driving v13 following a limited release around Thanksgiving. But since then, a wider FSD v13 rollout suggests no major step toward self-driving.
Musk has said he expects FSD to achieve true self-driving by mid-2025, though he's said similar "this year" or "next year" statements for about a decade.
In addition, Tesla's guidance for 2025 is an important factor affecting the stock price.
Analyst's opinions
Bulls
Morgan Stanley believes Tesla shares have significant upside as the company rolls out a fleet of autonomous cars, or robotaxis, that run on artificial intelligence.
Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's high-profile auto analyst and a TSLA bull, increased his Tesla stock price target to 430 from 400, keeping an overweight rating on the shares, which remain a "top pick" for the firm. The firm also sees a bull case in which Tesla’s stock could ultimately double to $800 per share.
Barclays has reaffirmed its "Equal Weight" rating on Tesla while increasing the price target from $270 to $325. Despite this hike, the new target remains approximately 24% below Tesla's recent closing price. The bank anticipates moderate earnings growth for Tesla by Q4 2024, driven by a healthy automotive gross margin.
For 2025, Barclays highlights three key themes for Tesla: a recovery in sales growth with the introduction of new lower-priced models, expansion into autonomous driving and AI business, and contributions from other sectors, particularly regulatory credits and energy storage. The firm notes that since the last U.S. election, Tesla's stock has experienced rapid growth, seemingly detached from its fundamentals, and driven by narratives.
Bears
Wells Fargo reaffirmed on its bearish Tesla call, ignoring the stock's rally and as a reminder to investors that bears still persevere on Wall Street. Despite the underweight rating, the bank forecasts Tesla shares will collapse another 70% to $125 this year.
Wells Fargo's analyst commented that the grim prediction is driven by weak business fundamentals. They point to Tesla's struggles to prop up vehicle deliveries despite deep discounts, and they warn about fierce competition from Chinese EV players. The analyst added that the potential to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits may impact a serious threat to Tesla's pricing power and U.S. market demand.
Also, Tesla's futuristic CyberCab and humanoid robot Optimus fail to impress Wells Fargo. These innovations have always been exciting, but the bank warns they are in development and are still incredibly expensive, even though they are operational in some form.
Bank of America downgraded Tesla from Buy to Neutral. The investment company expressed worries about Tesla's high valuation and possible difficulties carrying out its bold initiatives.
With much of Tesla's growth potentialincluding developments in autonomous driving, energy storage, and roboticsincluding already reflected in the stock's current valuation. Bank of America analysts set a price target of $490. The company also underlined regulatory uncertainty as a further threat to its future.