To The Moon

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility throughout 2025, starting the year by climbing above $93,000, then plunging to $74,500 in April, before staging a powerful rebound to set a new all-time high of $126,200 in October, only to subsequently relinquish most of those gains. Market opinions on Bitcoin's medium to long-term trajectory have diverged considerably. Several analysts point out that some investors believe Bitcoin has peaked for the current cycle, with rising risks of a bear market; conversely, other views suggest downside potential is limited, and 2025 could still see a challenge for new highs. A key point of debate is whether the traditional "four-year cycle" remains applicable. Proponents of a "weakening cycle" argue that favorable regulations, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional demand are altering the asset's historical price patterns. From a monthly chart perspective, Bitcoin's overarching upward structure remains intact. The two previous pullbacks found support near the 20-month exponential moving average (approximately $88,000), establishing it as a critical defensive line. A decisive break below this moving average, coupled with a fall beneath the April low of $74,500, would likely破坏 the bullish structure, potentially triggering a retreat towards the $50,000 zone. Conversely, a rebound from short-term moving averages and a return above the psychological $100,000 level could empower bulls to once again target the $126,200 high; a successful breach there might set the next upward objectives between $141,200 and $178,600. However, the weekly chart shows short-term bearish tendencies, with moving averages potentially forming a "death cross" for the first time since early 2022. Historical patterns indicate that if a rebound falters near these averages, the price could repeatedly test the $74,500 level; repeated tests of this support increase the risk of a breakdown, potentially evolving into a head-and-shoulders top pattern and ushering in a prolonged consolidation phase. Bitcoin's volatility is also transmitting effects to capital markets. Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury company, MicroStrategy (MSTR.US), which has long emphasized that "volatility is a feature, not a bug," is anticipated to report billions in unrealized losses in its upcoming Q4 earnings. This stems from the company's adoption of mark-to-market accounting rules this year, with Bitcoin's approximate 24% price decline in Q4 negatively impacting the value of its roughly $60 billion Bitcoin holdings. This starkly contrasts with the $2.8 billion profit recorded in the previous quarter. Market observers note that as the treasury company model proliferates, fair value accounting will more directly reflect cryptocurrency price swings on income statements, amplifying financial volatility. In 2025, MicroStrategy's common stock fell 48% cumulatively, raising investor concerns about its ability to cover dividends and interest expenses. To alleviate pressure, the company built a cash reserve through a common stock offering in early December and updated its full-year guidance at the month's start, assuming a year-end Bitcoin price range of $85,000 to $110,000. Given that Bitcoin closed the year near $87,600, operational results are more likely to align with the lower end of this guidance. Furthermore, Saylor's personal wealth also saw a substantial decline in 2025. Data shows his net worth dropped approximately 40% from the start of the year to around $3.8 billion. Concurrently, MicroStrategy's enterprise value has approached the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its market value premium (mNAV) declining to just above 1, indicating that the premium investors pay for its "Bitcoin-standard" strategy is diminishing. Entering the new year, risk assets have seen a short-term rebound: MicroStrategy's stock rose up to 5.2% to around $160, and Bitcoin surpassed $90,000. However, analysts caution that against a backdrop of weak technicals, accounting rules amplifying volatility, and unresolved debates about the cycle's validity, Bitcoin and related equities are likely to maintain their highly volatile nature. In the near term, the $74,500 and $100,000 levels are poised to become two critical battlegrounds for market sentiment.