The Federal Reserve’s growth-oriented monetary policy will continue to favor large-cap growth stocks, according to analysts at Wolfe Research.
The Fed’s easy-money policy has proven to be highly effective in providing liquidity and keeping businesses afloat during the pandemic. However, its inflationary consequences have already appeared, with the June consumer-price index registering its largest change since 2008.
Wolfe Chief Investment Strategist Chris Senyek and his team are hoping that the Fed will consider tapering its mortgage-backed security purchases.Currently, the central bank’s dovish stance “should help inflate the equity market bubble even further,” which would result in “sustained” rather than“transitory” inflation,writes Senyek. With heightened concerns about Covid-19’s Delta variant, however, the Fed is now unlikely to taper.
Given this, Senyek argues that large-caps will benefit most, as they are part of the stock-market bubbles currently driven by monetary policy. He points out that large-cap forward price/equityratios carry higher premiums compared with those of small-cap stocks, suggesting that the dovishness is boosting growth stocks compared with value.
In terms of sectors, Senyek writes that communication services and technology are the largest beneficiaries of the liquidity in markets because they are highly correlated with the Fed’s balance-sheet assets and largely independent of industrial commodity prices–which means they are less vulnerable to inflation. Senyek expects financials to decline since the sector is largely inversely correlated with the Fed’s balance-sheet assets.
Despite strong potential from the economic reopening, Senyek downgraded consumer-discretionary stocks due to concerns about the Delta variant. While many analysts have upgraded hotels, resorts, and cruise lines, Senyek believes that the subgroup won’t be able to meet the high expectations for the rebound in consumer spending.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively, on Tuesday.