Last week (January 12–16), global geopolitical events remained frequent, with Trump threatening intervention in the Iran situation while also expressing interest in Greenland and issuing tariff threats against European nations. Gold continued its upward trajectory, driven by hedging demand spurred by these uncertainties. On January 19, the spot price of gold in London briefly surpassed $4,690 per ounce, reaching a new historic high.
From a market perspective, international gold markets maintained their upward trend over the past week. Early Monday, the U.S. Department of Justice served a subpoena to Powell, who responded with a strong rebuttal. This incident fueled market concerns about further erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, propelling significant gains in gold and silver prices. Subsequently, mid-week U.S. CPI data met expectations, and escalating geopolitical risks in Iran supported the strength of precious metals. However, by Thursday, Trump showed signs of retreat on the Iran issue, and a key minerals 232 investigation was delayed, temporarily easing tariff risks. This led to a general pullback in commodity market sentiment, with gold and silver experiencing varying degrees of adjustment, though gold remained relatively stable.
Since the start of the new year, conflicts involving the U.S. with South America, and Northern Europe with the Middle East have persisted. The attack on Venezuela raised expectations of geopolitical risks spreading to South America, driving broad strength in metals due to resource security concerns. Comments regarding interest in Greenland continued to ferment, recently escalating into tariff threats against European countries. The intertwining of geopolitical and trade risks has provided substantial support for gold prices. Meanwhile, the annual rebalancing of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has largely concluded. After the short-term impact subsided, trend-following funds are expected to re-enter the market. Last week, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, saw inflows exceeding 20 tonnes.
Regarding the Federal Reserve Chair position, Trump's statements introduced new uncertainty. His preference for Hassett to remain at the National Economic Council has increased market expectations for Kevin Warsh (nearing 60%). Compared to Hassett, Warsh is relatively cautious about significant interest rate cuts and supports a substantial reduction of the Fed's balance sheet. From this perspective, the market's previous extremely loose monetary policy expectations may undergo a phase of correction.
Overall, compared to other precious metals, gold—due to its geopolitical sensitivity and hedging convenience—is likely to receive alternating support from other factors even as loose policy expectations experience a temporary pullback, indicating a positive long-term outlook.
In terms of last week's market developments, U.S. December CPI data came in slightly below expectations. U.S. December CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations. Core CPI increased 0.2% month-on-month (0.24%), against a market forecast of 0.3%. In December, U.S. core goods inflation cooled, primarily dragged down by vehicle inflation, while core services inflation heated up. U.S. inflation may remain "sticky" into the first half of 2026.
Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European countries opposing his pursuit of Greenland. Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from countries including France, Germany, and the U.K., effective February 1, with plans to increase the rate to 25% starting in June. This action aims to retaliate against and deter countries opposing his Greenland ambitions.
Uncertainty emerged regarding the new Federal Reserve Chair candidate. Recently, Trump expressed his desire for Hassett to remain at the National Economic Council (NEC), significantly boosting market expectations for Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair. On inflation, Warsh believes "inflation is a choice," resulting from current erroneous monetary policy. He does not support significant rate cuts and advocates for a substantial reduction of the Fed's balance sheet.
Risk Warning: Recent gold price volatility has been significant. Investing in gold funds requires a full understanding of the risks involved and prudent decision-making based on individual risk tolerance. Continuously monitor global macroeconomic trends, central bank gold purchases, and relevant policy developments.
Disclaimer: The information in this report is sourced from publicly available materials, and our company makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Under no circumstances shall the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute actual investment results for our company or any investment advice for investors.
Unless otherwise specified, data in this report is sourced from Wind, Bloomberg, or Bosera Fund. This report is the copyrighted property of Bosera Asset Management Co., Ltd. Investing involves risk; please choose cautiously. Bosera Gold ETF and its feeder fund risk rating: Medium.
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