Gold prices surged at the open but then plunged sharply in early Asian trading. Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he already knows who he will choose as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Meanwhile, significant developments emerged regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
**Gold Market Volatility** In early Asian trading on Monday (December 1), spot gold initially rose but then sharply reversed, briefly turning negative before paring losses.
**Fed Chair Speculation** On December 1, reports indicated that Trump claimed he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett remarked that he would be willing to serve if nominated by Trump.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on December 2, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will testify before a House committee.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to grow, with the three major U.S. stock indices posting consecutive weekly gains. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December stands at 87.4%, with a 12.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By January, the likelihood of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 67.5%, while the odds of a 50-basis-point reduction are 23.2%.
**Russia-Ukraine Developments** Significant updates also emerged regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On November 30, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was optimistic about U.S.-Ukraine talks held in Florida, suggesting a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine was "very possible." He also criticized Ukraine's corruption as detrimental to negotiations.
Trump stated that discussions were progressing well and that he had spoken with Secretary of State Rubio and Special Envoy Witkov. He acknowledged Ukraine faces "tough issues" but believes "Russia wants to see this end."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported via social media that National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov, who leads Ukraine’s negotiation team, briefed him on key points and partial outcomes from talks with U.S. officials. Zelensky described the discussions as constructive, with further work planned.
The U.S. and Ukrainian delegations began a new round of talks in Florida on November 30, focusing on a U.S.-proposed "peace plan." The meeting, held near Miami, included Secretary Rubio, Middle East Envoy Witkov, and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner. Rubio later called the talks "productive" but noted more work remains, with Witkov expected to travel to Moscow for further discussions. Rubio added that U.S. officials maintain varying levels of contact with Russian counterparts.
