To The Moon

Alcoa Corp. sales were weaker than expected after the aluminum producer said shipments of the commodity fell from the prior quarter, indicating demand may be waning amid various economic headwinds.

The Pittsburgh-based producer reported sales in its first-quarter earnings of $3.29 billion, below the average expectation of $3.44 billion, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Uncertainties caused by rising inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s recent slowdown could be creeping into the global aluminum market, which fuels everything from construction to appliances to electronics.

Aluminum prices are down more than 20% since hitting an all-time high at the beginning of March amid concerns about demand. Covid-19 is causing lockdowns throughout China, the world’s biggest consumer, and there are questions about how the Ukraine war will impact one of the top aluminum-consuming regions. Demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer, may rise just 1%, well below the 5.1% growth in 2021, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“Shipments of commodity grade aluminum were down 19% sequentially,” the company said in a statement.

Shares fell 3.83% at 7:02 p.m. in New York. The company’s forecast for shipments of aluminum were unchanged from a prior estimate of 2.5 to 2.6 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortizaion of $1.072 billion, higher than the $1.04 billion average estimate of 10 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. It marked the best quarter since Alcoa split from its jet- and car-parts business in 2016.

Credit Suisse analysts see aluminum prices near peak levels and expect the supply-and-demand balance to normalize in the second half of 2022 as trade flows gradually realign. Current geopolitical events, though, give lasting support for aluminum prices, analyst Curt Woodworth said.