The Federal Reserve has signaled it's in no rush to lower interest rates further as inflation remains persistently elevated. Investors will be looking for clues from the central bank's latest policy meeting to see just how long rates could stay on hold.
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 28-29 meeting will be released Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m. Eastern time.
Inflation has receded from its postpandemic highs, but remains stubbornly above levels that the Fed would ideally like to see. The consumer price index for January, for example, rose 3% year over year in January, its fastest pace in seven months and above the Fed's inflation target of 2%.
As such, the central bank has kept its key short-term interest rate at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December. The FOMC lowered rates by a half of a percentage point in September -- its first cut since March 2020 -- followed by a quarter-point cut just after the election in November and another one in December.
At that time, many economists and investors were expecting that inflation worries would continue to fade and allow the Fed to shift its focus to a cooling labor market. That would mean even more rate cuts.
But the economic picture has grown more complicated since then. The job market has remained relatively strong. The unemployment rate is just 4%, and wages are growing at a healthy clip, fueling more inflation concerns. Few economists are talking about an imminent recession anymore, either -- but some have warned that more hot inflation reports will revive the debate whether interest-rate hikes could be on the table.
That's why investors and analysts will be monitoring the minutes of last month's meeting closely to see if they offer any hints about what it might take to justify further rate reductions.
January's decision to leave rates alone was a unanimous one.
The FOMC said in last month's statement that "economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace" and that "labor market conditions remain solid," while also noting that inflation continues to be "somewhat elevated."
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently reiterated the bank's wait-and-see approach.
"With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation," he testified in front of Congress earlier this month, repeating his remarks from January's FOMC news conference.
New fiscal policies from President Donald Trump are also muddying the waters for the Fed. Deregulation, tax cuts, and possible stimulus could boost economic growth, further reducing the need for more rate cuts.
And then there are tariffs and immigration policies. The trade war could lead to price hikes for many consumer goods, while an immigration crackdown could reduce the number of people in the labor force and push wages even higher. Both could fuel inflation in the short term and over the long haul. The Fed suggested as much in the minutes from its December meeting, which were released earlier this year.
In December, Fed officials cited "the elevated uncertainty regarding specifics about the scope and timing of potential changes to trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies and their potential effects on the economy," according to the minutes.
Wall Street has gotten the hint.
"We see the Fed as comfortably sitting back and waiting for conviction on its next policy move," said strategists at BNP Paribas in a report Tuesday.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed's next meeting on March 19 is just 2.5%. Traders are pricing in 14% odds of easing after the Fed's May 7 meeting as well. Chances for a cut on June 18 are currently closer to 50-50, though.
Even that might be an aggressive assumption. Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets told Barron's that the Fed could be on hold for the rest of the year. He also didn't rule out the possibility of rate hikes if inflation roars back.
Investors remain fairly upbeat about the economy though. The S&P 500 is up 4% so far this year and closed Tuesday at a record high. And yields on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury have slipped back to about 4.56% after spiking above 4.8% in mid-January.
