Canaccord raises deliveries estimate to the highest on Wall Street, just days before Tesla reports them, and its stock-price target to just below $500.
Tesla Motors should report quarterly deliveries this week that show a positive break in trend, Canaccord says.
Tesla Inc. investors seem to be increasingly optimistic about what the electric-vehicle giant may say when it reports third-quarter deliveries in the next couple of days, and Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas just jumped on that bandwagon with a new Wall Street-high outlook.
Basically, despite some recent data that could raise concerns over EV sales, as well as comments from Chief Executive Elon Musk about preparing for "rough" quarters ahead as EV tax credits go away, Gianarikas said he believes the report from Tesla, which is expected to be released Thursday morning, will show "a positive break in trend."
Tesla's stock gained another 0.3% on Tuesday, after closing at a nine-month high on Monday. The stock has run up 31.8% in September, which put it on track for the best monthly performance since it hiked up 38.2% in November 2024.
Gianarikas raised his estimate for third-quarter deliveries to 482,900 from 420,000, based on proprietary data pulled from more about 30 countries. That compares with the average estimate of analysts compiled by FactSet, prior to his increase, of 448,000, with a range of 414,000 to 470,000.
He said his new estimate, which represents growth of 4.3% from a year ago, is based on registration data across 30 countries.
New models, which management has promised can be expected soon, should also help boost sales, "and potentially help alleviate any post-Q3 cliff in the U.S. after EV tax credits go away," Gianarikas wrote in a note to clients.
He reiterated the buy rating he's had on the stock for at least the past three years and raised his stock-price target to $490 from $333. The new price target implies 11.3% upside from Monday's closing price and is the fifth highest target among the 50 analysts surveyed by FactSet who cover the stock.
Tesla's stock has gained 9% in 2025, while the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF has rallied 22.1% and the S&P 500 has advanced 13.1%.