Stock-market moves took a back seat to the metals market once again on Monday morning as investors added even more exposure to haven assets, lifting both gold and silver to never-before-seen heights.
The moves for the metals after another tumultuous weekend for news headlines tied to President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve’s independence, as well as to growing tensions in Iran, Venezuela and Greenland, show that a commodities “supercycle” is “firmly intact.”
Monday’s rallies in gold and silver were being credited to pressure by the Trump administration on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but both precious metals would likely have seen a big move higher regardless of that, said Brien Lundin, editor of the Gold Newsletter.
“The price action last week in not only the monetary metals of gold and silver but also base metals and commodities across the board confirmed that the commodity supercycle is firmly intact,” he told MarketWatch. A supercycle is seen as period of sustained price increases — and gold and silver together have posted particularly strong gains in the last two years.
Gold, silver hit new records
On Comex Monday, gold for February delivery climbed 2.5% to settle at $4,614.70 an ounce after touching a record high of $4,640.50, while March silver ended at $85.09 an ounce, up 7.3%, after a high of $86.34, the highest on record. Most-active gold futures have more than doubled over in the past three calendar years of consecutive gains, while silver has more than tripled during its four straight years of gains, according to a Dow Jones Market Data analysis of FactSet figures.
That contrasts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s modest rise of 0.2% to 49,590 Monday.
The Justice Department served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas on Friday, and Powell said Sunday that the move threatened an “unprecedented” criminal indictment against him that could undermine the central bank’s independence and credibility.
Edward Meir, analyst at Marex, said the latest “back-and-forth illustrates the nervousness investors feel about any intimidating tactics being lodged against the Fed’s independence,” but added that the reaction might have been worse if Powell’s term as chair wasn’t already ending in May.
“Few gold or silver bugs will have much love for unelected central bankers setting the cost of money by committee, rather than letting the market decide interest rates,” said Adrian Ash, director of BullionVault.com.
He said that “by calling in the cops to attack Fed independence, the Trump administration has confirmed that the debasement trade is alive and kicking in 2026.”
This also “tells whoever gets the job of Fed chair in May that they will need to cut rates even if inflation rises,” Ash told MarketWatch.
Venezuela, Iran and oil prices
Trump’s clash with the Fed over interest rates isn’t the only issue contributing to record highs for gold and silver. Geopolitics have played a large part in that rally, too.
Gold remains well supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for global macroeconomics at Forex.com.
“The latest flare-up involving Iran has reintroduced a fresh layer of uncertainty,” he wrote in emailed commentary. Anti-government protests in Iran have reportedly led to more than 500 deaths. “The key risk is the prospects of renewed U.S. involvement in the region,” said Razaqzada.
Elsewhere, developments in Venezuela and renewed focus on Greenland “serve as timely reminders that geopolitical shocks can re-emerge quickly and with little warning,” he said. “Against that backdrop, safe-haven demand is likely to remain intact until tensions in Iran cool and greater clarity emerges around these broader geopolitical flashpoints, keeping the near-term gold forecast positive.”
For now, it’s difficult to say where prices for gold and silver may go from here, Marex’s Meir said, given that there are “no resistance signposts on the charts.”
However, the next logical psychological targets are $5,000 an ounce on gold and $100 an ounce on silver — “both of which we think are attainable over the next few months,” Meir said.
As for what could possibly knock gold “off its perch,” Meir said, “perhaps a ‘successful’ resolution to Venezuela and Iran, whereby oil from both countries starts flowing more freely under new regimes, could reassure the markets by lowering crude prices and inflation.”
Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% Monday to settle at $59.50 a barrel, but the U.S. benchmark was down more than 14% from a year ago, according to FactSet.
